Morning all! Forget the headline numbers and look at the percentages. The Tories lost 22% of their seats contested. On no planet - not even the crooked lying one that today's Tories live on - can that be described as a Good Result.
Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.
In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.
It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.
You know, nobody despises Boris Johnson more than I do.
But I’m thinking I’d rather have him as PM than these twats running Germany.
Indeed. I take the view that governments are generally poor at focusing on more than one thing at once. By far the most salient issue right now is defeating Russian imperialism. And intriguingly I too have stoped and found myself thinking more than once that it’s fortuitous we have Johnson in charge for this moment than some of the past and present alternatives.
Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?
If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.
What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.
Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.
Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.
Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.
Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
I'm not sure about this "an 80 seat majority is hard to smash in one go" theory.
Labour's 1945 landslide nearly all went in 1950- Attlee staggered on for a tiny bit longer as a kind of zombie.
The next change of government was Macmillan to Wilson- that was overturning a majority of 100.
Wilson's 98 seat majority didn't save him in 1970.
The swings in the 70s were smaller, sure. But Major to Blair was huge, and 2010 saw the government lose over 90 seats.
If the voters want a government out, they're quite happy to flip enough seats to make it happen.
Especially in these more volatile, less party-loyalty oriented times.
I’d agree with rejecting the theory you can’t overturn a big majority in one go. If people are angry and / or want change, it happens.
But here’s the thing. Labour is offering nothing as an alternative. Ask someone vaguely normal what Labour stands for and there will be a vague answer given with an overemphasis of letting more immigrants in and men to call themselves women if they want. Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
And most people recognise those problems they are facing are also being faced by most countries elsewhere and largely outside their Governments’ control - rising inflation due to supply chain issues / commodity price increases, the war in Ukraine, COVID etc. People may say BJ’s Government has got things wrong but it doesn’t stand out amongst Governments across the world for the awfulness of its actions. In some cases (eg ending mandates early, vaccine rollout), people probably feel even grateful.
So, if you are worried about rising utility bills, inflation etc, why would you vote Labour? They are not offering anything even vaguely credible to fix things. So why not stick with the Devil you know?
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Welsh and Scottish voters seem to have cottoned on to the fact the Tories are now an English nationalist party.
Interesting you should say that; I'd be more cautious and just say an increasingly primarily English party. It's as if local government is following on from the HoC in that respect. Though Holyrood is lagging, of course, because of the voting system.
I saw Phillipson as a potential SKS replacement. She was my old college (not in the same year). She’s essentially a slightly more intelligent, less left-wing version of Laura Pidcock - went to Oxford, involved in student politics and comes from that public sector middle class background (teacher / social worker etc) that isn’t exactly popular with a lot of more ‘common’ folk.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?
If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.
What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.
Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.
Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.
Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.
Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
I'm not sure about this "an 80 seat majority is hard to smash in one go" theory.
Labour's 1945 landslide nearly all went in 1950- Attlee staggered on for a tiny bit longer as a kind of zombie.
The next change of government was Macmillan to Wilson- that was overturning a majority of 100.
Wilson's 98 seat majority didn't save him in 1970.
The swings in the 70s were smaller, sure. But Major to Blair was huge, and 2010 saw the government lose over 90 seats.
If the voters want a government out, they're quite happy to flip enough seats to make it happen.
Especially in these more volatile, less party-loyalty oriented times.
I’d agree with rejecting the theory you can’t overturn a big majority in one go. If people are angry and / or want change, it happens.
But here’s the thing. Labour is offering nothing as an alternative. Ask someone vaguely normal what Labour stands for and there will be a vague answer given with an overemphasis of letting more immigrants in and men to call themselves women if they want. Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
And most people recognise those problems they are facing are also being faced by most countries elsewhere and largely outside their Governments’ control - rising inflation due to supply chain issues / commodity price increases, the war in Ukraine, COVID etc. People may say BJ’s Government has got things wrong but it doesn’t stand out amongst Governments across the world for the awfulness of its actions. In some cases (eg ending mandates early, vaccine rollout), people probably feel even grateful.
So, if you are worried about rising utility bills, inflation etc, why would you vote Labour? They are not offering anything even vaguely credible to fix things. So why not stick with the Devil you know?
SKS is a busted flush. We thought he had one superpower, the forensic dissection of the guilty, and the astonishing luck of being the only LOTO in history to have a literally guilty pm to use that otherwise inapplicable superpower on. He screwed up in a way a competent lawyer would not have done.
It was hardly a ringing endorsement for labour, but they were steady and in line with recent opinion polls, a great night for the lib dems, something for them to build on, the greens done well in places. I always thought that the Tories would win the next election with a reduced majority, I'm not so sure, this was a bad night for them, and the warning bells should be ringing loudly. Anecdotally I have been told by people who voted green, that at a general election they will vote Labour, there are votes for Labour to squeeze, but where are the Tories going to turn for extra votes, there is nothing there, I think they could be in a lot of trouble in a years time, I wouldn't be putting money on the Tories right now.
Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.
I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
I’m not sure that’s right although it’s a factor.
The people I talk to in the south are uniquely angry with Boris. In many ways they give the government a pass as they realise the incredibly difficult situation - the government’s performance has been ok if not inspiring.
But Boris has abused their trust band taken the piss. They are voting LibDem in protest but it’s not just classic mid term.
Replace Boris and a lot of the angry will dissipate. But in regards him I think views are solidifying. I don’t see a way back for him at this point
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
Neither does BoZo.
But as the Bank of England forecasts double-digit inflation and that the UK could plunge into recession, there will be some old-fashioned/idealistic/desperate people wondering: where are the ideas? What on earth is the plan? The government’s entire policy programme currently amounts to a small timeshare hotel in Rwanda and George Eustice’s suggestion that people might want to give supermarket value ranges a go. It all feels like busywork, the appearance of action. Far from attempting to shape events, the government seems to wait for them to turn up – good or bad – and then react to them.
2015 promised seven-day GP access, and devoted a mere seven words to £12bn of welfare cuts. Three times as many words were given to their policy on polar bears. 2017 promised something other than the entire body politic convulsing over nothing but Brexit for more than two years. 2019 – well, how’s that working out for ya? Only against these yardsticks could those snap election rumours make a lunatic sort of sense.
Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.
I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
The next election, which is now almost certainly going to be in May 2024, has a 1992 ring to it. The goverment’s majority will be reduced to nothing amid difficult economic times.
The next couple of years will be very difficult economically, especially if full employment doesn’t hold up.
I think there will be a reshuffle next week, and the domestic focus needs to change to cost-of-living issues, and the scope and cost of government itself.
Internationally, the West needs to make sure Putin gets defeated militarily in Ukraine. For the sake of humanity, we can’t have a nutter threatening to use nuclear bombs. Thankfully, his army is being rapidly depleted.
Who is the Blair figure in waiting?
That’s the $64,000 question.
I’m not convinced it’s SKS, who has rightly concentrated his efforts on reforming his party and dragging it closer to electable by neutering the fringe elements that previously dominated. That said, he also needs to watch for fringe elements on the North-London side, and for God’s sake be able to say that a woman is an adult human female, before he gets asked the question in front of an audience of 10m in an election debate.
Going all in on birthday cake while forgetting his own minor misdemeanours in the same area, was somewhat clumsy, but I still think these silly stories will be forgotten over time.
What he needs now, is some serious policy thinking. What is his plan to make life better for the average person? Blair had the minimum wage, class sizes and NHS investment, so what does SKS’s Labour Party actually want to do if elected?
Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.
I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
The next election, which is now almost certainly going to be in May 2024, has a 1992 ring to it. The goverment’s majority will be reduced to nothing amid difficult economic times.
The next couple of years will be very difficult economically, especially if full employment doesn’t hold up.
I think there will be a reshuffle next week, and the domestic focus needs to change to cost-of-living issues, and the scope and cost of government itself.
Internationally, the West needs to make sure Putin gets defeated militarily in Ukraine. For the sake of humanity, we can’t have a nutter threatening to use nuclear bombs. Thankfully, his army is being rapidly depleted.
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?
If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.
What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.
Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.
Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.
Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.
Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
I'm not sure about this "an 80 seat majority is hard to smash in one go" theory.
Labour's 1945 landslide nearly all went in 1950- Attlee staggered on for a tiny bit longer as a kind of zombie.
The next change of government was Macmillan to Wilson- that was overturning a majority of 100.
Wilson's 98 seat majority didn't save him in 1970.
The swings in the 70s were smaller, sure. But Major to Blair was huge, and 2010 saw the government lose over 90 seats.
If the voters want a government out, they're quite happy to flip enough seats to make it happen.
Especially in these more volatile, less party-loyalty oriented times.
I’d agree with rejecting the theory you can’t overturn a big majority in one go. If people are angry and / or want change, it happens.
But here’s the thing. Labour is offering nothing as an alternative. Ask someone vaguely normal what Labour stands for and there will be a vague answer given with an overemphasis of letting more immigrants in and men to call themselves women if they want. Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
And most people recognise those problems they are facing are also being faced by most countries elsewhere and largely outside their Governments’ control - rising inflation due to supply chain issues / commodity price increases, the war in Ukraine, COVID etc. People may say BJ’s Government has got things wrong but it doesn’t stand out amongst Governments across the world for the awfulness of its actions. In some cases (eg ending mandates early, vaccine rollout), people probably feel even grateful.
So, if you are worried about rising utility bills, inflation etc, why would you vote Labour? They are not offering anything even vaguely credible to fix things. So why not stick with the Devil you know?
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
Oh good I am going tomorrow night. If I can get from prize ceremony at Badminton to Plymouth in 4 hours.
What he needs now, is some serious policy thinking. What is his plan to make life better for the average person? Blair had the minimum wage, class sizes and NHS investment, so what does SKS’s Labour Party actually want to do if elected?
The appearance given is one of not wanting to do anything, for fear of scaring the horses.
The Dead Ringers caricature of him is unfortunately spot on.
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
Oh good I am going tomorrow night. If I can get from prize ceremony at Badminton to Plymouth in 4 hours.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
Oh good I am going tomorrow night. If I can get from prize ceremony at Badminton to Plymouth in 4 hours.
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
And note that it applies to WWII sites, not generally. One can understand Germans being particularly sensitive about such things.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
The narcissism of small differences comes to mind.
Morning all! Forget the headline numbers and look at the percentages. The Tories lost 22% of their seats contested. On no planet - not even the crooked lying one that today's Tories live on - can that be described as a Good Result.
It was a very bad result in most places. They did okay in a few red wall areas like Newcastle-under-Lyme. And Harrow was rather bizarre, going against the London trend.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
The GE question for me is how badly the Tories lose and who with?
If Boris remains then the Conservatives don't even reach "toast" status, More like stale bread that fails to make it out of the wrapper. In the leafy Conservative seats Boris is seen as a vulgar lying oaf that you'd cross the street to avoid - Advantage LibDems.
In the Red Wall and suburbs some of the spiv shine remains but then it'll be "the economy stupid" that rubs away the remaining gloss - Advantage Labour and Others.
Boris Remains = Electoral Catastrophe Boris Goes = Electoral Hope .. Perhaps.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
Morning all! Forget the headline numbers and look at the percentages. The Tories lost 22% of their seats contested. On no planet - not even the crooked lying one that today's Tories live on - can that be described as a Good Result.
It was a very bad result in most places. They did okay in a few red wall areas like Newcastle-under-Lyme. And Harrow was rather bizarre, going against the London trend.
There are always bright spots even when you are getting a political kicking, and they did get a kicking.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
I remember looking at a map a few years ago and being surprised by the way there was just one road leading to Canvey Island, where about 40,000 people live. If that road was blocked by an accident or a tree or something they wouldn't be able to get out.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
Having been to Canvey I can both understand the siege mentality of the islanders and the attitude of non-islanders...
Morning all! Forget the headline numbers and look at the percentages. The Tories lost 22% of their seats contested. On no planet - not even the crooked lying one that today's Tories live on - can that be described as a Good Result.
It was a very bad result in most places. They did okay in a few red wall areas like Newcastle-under-Lyme. And Harrow was rather bizarre, going against the London trend.
It was indeed. Nothing to be complacent about.
Quick counter-factual. If the Durham decision had come out pre-election, what would have happened. Greens and LDa still doing very well, what about Labour?
and for God’s sake be able to say that a woman is an adult human female, before he gets asked the question in front of an audience of 10m in an election debate.
That isn't what Johnson (or any other tory shitbag) is going to say in response to that question. He finessed it by saying that 'biology is a fundamental factor' thus implying there are other factors beyond that.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
I remember looking at a map a few years ago and being surprised by the way there was just one road leading to Canvey Island, where about 40,000 people live. If that road was blocked by an accident or a tree or something they wouldn't be able to get out.
He Is toast, but quite possibly toast that is stuck in the corner of the toaster so that it continues to stink out the kitchen.
And what's changed is that the public have broadly forgiven the Lib Dems for 2010-5. Not so much because of what they've done, but because of time and the awfulness of Johnson's Conservative party.
The clues were there in C&A and N Shropshire, but now it's clear nationwide. Labour aren't seen as the only anti-Tory game in town, which they were for a while in England. So Labour down in places where they have a low ceiling, but the Conservatives facing systematic attack on two close but distinct fronts.
Not great for Labour, but worse for the Conservatives. And that effect could be a couple of dozen seats all by itself- see 1992 or 2017 or 2019- when the Conservative seat count didn't really reflect the change in vote share.
This also shows the flaw, not unanticipated on pb, in Keir Starmer's (and Lord Mandelson's?) masterplan — the assumption that voters opposed to the government have nowhere else to turn. Improved showings for the Greens and LibDems showed that is false. At least Jeremy Corbyn engaged the young. At least Tony Blair had enough policies to fill its pledge card. Starmer needs to supply the answer, what is Labour for?
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
Having been to Canvey I can both understand the siege mentality of the islanders and the attitude of non-islanders...
I've lived in both places and worked in both, too. And you're right about the attitudes.
Morning all! Forget the headline numbers and look at the percentages. The Tories lost 22% of their seats contested. On no planet - not even the crooked lying one that today's Tories live on - can that be described as a Good Result.
It was a very bad result in most places. They did okay in a few red wall areas like Newcastle-under-Lyme. And Harrow was rather bizarre, going against the London trend.
It was indeed. Nothing to be complacent about.
Quick counter-factual. If the Durham decision had come out pre-election, what would have happened. Greens and LDa still doing very well, what about Labour?
I would have thought it might have effected Labour turnout and the Tories couldn’t really say much re beergate given it would just remind voters of what was going on in no 10.
The Met police set a precedent by not doing updates .
Off-topic and indulgent, but can I please wax lyrical for a minute about Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets? There is something wonderfully surreal (as I did last night) at watching a band led by a 78 year old drummer playing mid-60s psychedelia with such gusto.
Oh good I am going tomorrow night. If I can get from prize ceremony at Badminton to Plymouth in 4 hours.
The M5 generates the highest revenue in speeding fines of any road in the UK according to my solicitor. Go A39 and fucking send it. Hard.
Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.
In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.
It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.
A few "Home thoughts from abroad", now we have the final results.
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
Because there is moral equivalence between the invader and the victim?
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
I remember looking at a map a few years ago and being surprised by the way there was just one road leading to Canvey Island, where about 40,000 people live. If that road was blocked by an accident or a tree or something they wouldn't be able to get out.
That's true but equally they could put a couple of big guns on the south coast just beyond the camping shop and interdict maritime traffic down the Thames, so I don't think rUK would be foolish enough to try it.
The Conservatives have lost hundreds of council seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats as Tory MPs in the party’s southern heartlands openly question Boris Johnson’s leadership
I think it's this which may finish him. Not the red wall tories at all, who are probably still gooey-eyed about the oaf. It's the blue wall which is about to knife him.
It was truly amazing how long it took the BBC to realise this yesterday, if they ever did. Sky got it straight away.
Anti-Tory voting is back in a big way thanks to Boris, with millions happy to vote for whoever is challenging in their seat. The Tory losses were huge.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Mr. Jonathan, they're very sensitive to Russian money too.
Not that we've been great on that, but we're certainly way ahead of the Germans when it comes to Ukraine/Russia.
I work with Poles and Germans. Their experience of this war is very different to ours because of their history and geography. We should respect that.
The people I work with in Berlin were very nervous indeed. Even people in Heidelberg were worried and not making travel plans as a result.
Our privileged position behind 20miles of sea shouldn’t stop us being able to be sympathetic to this.
I can understand a certain sensitivity given the Ukrainians were in effect allied to Nazi Germany for part of the Second World War, from 1941-42.
But this is unlikely to be about that, especially given the initial agreement now reneged on. This is about certain German politicians being so far up Putin's arse that they could inspect his teeth for him.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.
The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
Why/how are they vile?
Liars, thieves and comic singers, are you in the UK, it is as bad as a banana republic.
Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.
In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.
It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.
So what do the police do when the Ukrainians break out the flags anyway? Arresting them would be a reaaaly bad look
Morning all.
One can perhaps see one version of logic, given Berlin.
However, the article seems to suggest the ban applies to 'WW2 sites'. Just what is one of those in the context of Berlin?
"But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites."
And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.
Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) and Hunt clocks well over 30k votes and 50%+ of the vote in Surrey South-West. The age profile of the Tory core vote in what are suburban/semi-rural & wealthy areas is solid for both.
Whereas I think you are right and I don't think the LDs will win either Surrey Heath nor SW Surrey I don't think your reasons are correct @Casino_Royale . I appreciate you are very close to SW Surrey and my knowledge is also several decades olds, but the reasons you give applied then and then they were potential seats for the LDs. Just to explain I was heavily involved in both and knew them both intimately. And when I say intimately I really mean it. I can't say how without giving away my identity.
SW Surrey
The LDs have come within 800 odd votes of winning. It was the number 1 target in the SE when we won Guildford. The SW Surrey / Guildford campaign was a joint campaign and Guildford was the secondary target. I was heavily involved. We only won Guildford over SW Surrey because the Tories put up a better fight in SW Surrey and had a better MP in Virginia Bottomley and the reason for this was they were used to having a tough fight in SW Surrey because of previous targeting. It became clear a week before polling day that Guildford was much softer. After all this infighting broke out in SW Surrey LDs. High profile members were expelled, there was a breakaway group and the whole lot collapsed spectacularly (I sadly was involved in the process and just wanted to bang heads together)
Surrey Heath
Surrey Heath was rock solid Tory. The LDs got their act together in the 90s/00s and it became a development seat for the LDs (ie a future target). Several key activists moved away and it dropped back again. I have had no local knowledge for sometime now. The LDs seem to be doing very well there now. I look at the names of the councillors and I recognise only 2 or 3. Once I would have known every activist. Over a decade out they seem to have a lot of fresh blood and seem to be doing very well.
And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.
Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) and Hunt clocks well over 30k votes and 50%+ of the vote in Surrey South-West. The age profile of the Tory core vote in what are suburban/semi-rural & wealthy areas is solid for both.
Raab is different.
Don't get high on your own supply.
Whereas I think you are right and I don't think the LDs will win either Surrey Heath nor SW Surrey I don't think your reasons are correct @Casino_Royale . I appreciate you are very close to SW Surrey and my knowledge is also several decades olds, but the reasons you give applied then and then they were potential seats for the LDs. Just to explain I was heavily involved in both and knew them both intimately. And when I say intimately I really mean it. I can't say how without giving away my identity.
SW Surrey
The LDs have come within 800 odd votes of winning. It was the number 1 target in the SE when we won Guildford. The SW Surrey / Guildford campaign was a joint campaign and Guildford was the secondary target. I was heavily involved. We only won Guildford over SW Surrey because the Tories put up a better fight in SW Surrey and had a better MP in Virginia Bottomley and the reason for this was they were used to having a tough fight in SW Surrey because of previous targeting. It became clear a week before polling day that Guildford was much softer. After all this infighting broke out in SW Surrey LDs. High profile members were expelled, there was a breakaway group and the whole lot collapsed spectacularly (I sadly was involved in the process and just wanted to bang heads together)
Surrey Heath
Surrey Heath was rock solid Tory. The LDs got their act together in the 90s/00s and it became a development seat for the LDs (ie a future target). Several key activists moved away and it dropped back again. I have had no local knowledge for sometime now. The LDs seem to be doing very well there now. I look at the names of the councillors and I recognise only 2 or 3. Once I would have known every activist. Over a decade out they seem to have a lot of fresh blood and seem to be doing very well.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
Worrying about being looked down upon by Benfleet. Is there anywhere lower to go than that?
Trouble is, Benfleet is hilly, so the people there do, physically, look down on the reclaimed marshland that is Canvey.
I remember looking at a map a few years ago and being surprised by the way there was just one road leading to Canvey Island, where about 40,000 people live. If that road was blocked by an accident or a tree or something they wouldn't be able to get out.
That's true but equally they could put a couple of big guns on the south coast just beyond the camping shop and interdict maritime traffic down the Thames, so I don't think rUK would be foolish enough to try it.
Bit out of date. You mean lorry-mounted Neptunes.
Edit: it did have big guns before, though. 152mm in modern inches.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.
The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
Why/how are they vile?
Is that a real question?
Yes it is a real question. The description of your opponents as 'vile' is moving rapidly to the intolerance of the politics of hate. It is a major reason the left has done so badly over the last 50 years or so. For example Brown and Corbyn had it Blair didn't.
That feeds into the debate here a few days ago regarding Parliamentary language.
It seems old fashioned, but referring to members as being the honourable person for the place that elected them, and referring to errors or misleading statements, is what stops politics from descending into everyone calling each other crooks and liars.
It’s really important to see your political opponents as honourable but misguided, but sadly many of those on the more extreme ends of politics prefer to depart from these conventions.
Of course, there is another problem at the moment in that the PM really *is* a crook and a liar. Unfortunately that’s not going to change depending on the language you use.
Yes and the Tories are spineless lickspittles happy to help him to save their own rotten selves
Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
Neither does BoZo.
But as the Bank of England forecasts double-digit inflation and that the UK could plunge into recession, there will be some old-fashioned/idealistic/desperate people wondering: where are the ideas? What on earth is the plan? The government’s entire policy programme currently amounts to a small timeshare hotel in Rwanda and George Eustice’s suggestion that people might want to give supermarket value ranges a go. It all feels like busywork, the appearance of action. Far from attempting to shape events, the government seems to wait for them to turn up – good or bad – and then react to them.
2015 promised seven-day GP access, and devoted a mere seven words to £12bn of welfare cuts. Three times as many words were given to their policy on polar bears. 2017 promised something other than the entire body politic convulsing over nothing but Brexit for more than two years. 2019 – well, how’s that working out for ya? Only against these yardsticks could those snap election rumours make a lunatic sort of sense.
It's a good summary (including the sideswipe at Labour tbh). The Government absolutely feels adrift. Oppositions can just about get away with not having prominent policies in mid-term. The Government is supposed to be running things, so they really can't.
Purely in cynical party advantage terms, the case for changing from Johnson now is that it would show that the Conservative Party has a pulse and is not merely the Save Big Dog Special Operation. A new leader would certainly get a honeymoon for a while and might get some forward moementum. The case against is that a couple of months of internal party navel-gazing is exactly what the public don't want from Government in deteriorating conditions, and the "Exciting new leader" trick will work better a year out from the election instead of two years.
I expect Conservative MPs to be swayed by the latter argument, and the "something may turn up" thought. If Johnson's popularity revives by next year, they'll feel there isn't a problem. If it doesn't, dump him then.
They would, I think, be making a mistake in pinning their hopes to beergate. It's awkward, but either there's a FPN and Starmer probably quits, or there isn't and he can point to the contrast. Either way it's hard to imagine anyone talking about it in 2024.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
The GE question for me is how badly the Tories lose and who with?
If Boris remains then the Conservatives don't even reach "toast" status, More like stale bread that fails to make it out of the wrapper. In the leafy Conservative seats Boris is seen as a vulgar lying oaf that you'd cross the street to avoid - Advantage LibDems.
In the Red Wall and suburbs some of the spiv shine remains but then it'll be "the economy stupid" that rubs away the remaining gloss - Advantage Labour and Others.
Boris Remains = Electoral Catastrophe Boris Goes = Electoral Hope .. Perhaps.
How Stupid Do The Stupid Party Want To Be?
It's slightly complicated by the spread of possible results with BoJo vs. AN Other.
A not-Boris probably loses next time in a dignified non catastrophic way.
Boris probably leads to a really bad defeat, but he's also talismanic and ruthless in a crisis, so you never know...
His distribution of results peaks lower but has a fatter tail.
So if you're Barry Redwall, in a marginal seat, Sunak or Hunt sign the death warrant on your political career. Johnson gives you a 1% chance, and 1% is better than 0.1%.
Similarly, if you are Bufton Tufton in a safe seat (say it was safe in 1997, or 2005), sacking Johnson doesn't save your seat personally, and keeping him gives you a small chance of remaining in government.
The only MPs who benefit personally from ditching Johnson are those who survive a small defeat under AN Other but are at bigger risk in a big Johnson defeat. Put like that, I'm not sure there are many of those.
The moral is, don't put an idiot like Johnson in charge, because he'll be a bugger to remove. If you doubt this, there's a man called Dominic with a lot to say on the subject.
Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.
The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.
And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.
Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) .
Surrey Heath is not Jeremy Hunt's constituency. Presumably you mean Michael Gove.
Jeremy Hunt's constituency is Surrey South West and he is in big trouble. In 2019 there was a 15% swing to the Lib Dems and Hunt held it 31,000 to 23,000. Right now I'd say it's a racing certainty he would lose the seat.
And re. the wealth, that's exactly what they said about my ward: Hook Heath (hence my name) is extremely wealthy. One of the most genteel high-end places in the whole of Surrey where you'd be hard pressed to find a single property under £1m. It used to be a safe Conservative area. Not any more. It wasn't even close. The Lib Dems won it 1500 to 1000.
I don't need you to tell me which constituency is which, thank you; the distinction was clear in my post.
I happen to live next to SSW, and I'm close to Surrey Heath too. It's not a racing certainty Hunt will lose SSW. It would only be vulnerable in the case of a Tory landslide defeat. Hunt's vote has hovered at well over 30k since 2010 and he's been the MP for 17 years and built up a significant personal vote. He's good at winning over liberal Tories, and working the seat, and is well regarded locally.
Yes, opposition has consolidated behind the Liberal Democrats, but he'd need a major direct swing from hitherto solid Tories to the Liberal Democrats for him to lose it.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
“Were there any more ‘parties’?” “No” “But, but two years ago you spent nine minutes being ambushed by your wife with a birthday cake. You’re a lying liar who should resign for lying”
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
It's an awkward choice. The day is supposed to be a sombre remembrance of the end of the worst nightmare in recent European history, and a reminder of a time when east and west were united. It would IMO be better if nobody tried to exploit the occasion by demonstrating about the current war, so not having any flags at all seems sensible if it could be done.
But inevitably they will, so maybe it would be better (and more consistent with freedom of expression) to let everyone turn up with whatever flags they want (except Nazi flags), and concentrate on preventing clashes between rival sympathisers. Ukrainian flags would undoubtedly dominate, even though the Russian expats recently put up a show too with a cavalcade of Z-cars, so the impression that Germany is largely sympathetic to Ukraine would prevail, without the need to wrestle with participants to take their flags away.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.
Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) .
Surrey Heath is not Jeremy Hunt's constituency. Presumably you mean Michael Gove.
Jeremy Hunt's constituency is Surrey South West and he is in big trouble. In 2019 there was a 15% swing to the Lib Dems and Hunt held it 31,000 to 23,000. Right now I'd say it's a racing certainty he would lose the seat.
And re. the wealth, that's exactly what they said about my ward: Hook Heath (hence my name) is extremely wealthy. One of the most genteel high-end places in the whole of Surrey where you'd be hard pressed to find a single property under £1m. It used to be a safe Conservative area. Not any more. It wasn't even close. The Lib Dems won it 1500 to 1000.
I'm CLP chair in Southwest Surrey so I know the position intimately. In my opinion, Hunt will hold on, not least as he's a good constituency MP who assiduously keeps in touch, but the LibDems (who have a very popular candidate who is council leader) have a definite chance. There are lots of Labour voters who support us in local elections (hence my position on the Council), but at a GE tactical voting is omnipresent down here.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
He set the bar, let's see what happens when he is asked in Parlt. as he inevitably will be,.
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Overall, the results were considerably worse for the Conservatives than I had thought, yesterday afternoon. The party went from losing one sixth of its seats to one quarter. That said, it's not the kind of result the party was suffering in the 1990's.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he REPEATEDLY did in no. 10.
That’s also an important word. Had it been a one-off lapse we might not al be so furious.
What’s worse is that many of those who wilfully and brazenly flouted the rules while destructively bullying everyone else and very frequently making matters worse do actually look set to get away with it, the likes of Cummings and Acland-Hood.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
He set the bar, let's see what happens when he is asked in Parlt. as he inevitably will be,.
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
Multiple breaches while a minister of the Crown, at a time when the rules were severe?
As we know Labour did very well in Worthing. But this is the popular vote in Adur, which is Shoreham:
Lab 7,011 Con 6,881 Green 2,517 Ind 742 LD 637
Good isn’t it! You can se a future for West Sussex where Labour wins the coast and the Lib Dems win the Downs.
Yes, the spread of Labour along the coast is a remarkable and under-reported phenomenon. I don't entirely understand it myself, though the position of Brighton as a flagship of young counter-culture has undoubtedly helped both Labour and Greens.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he REPEATEDLY did in no. 10.
That’s also an important word. Had it been a one-off lapse we might not al be so furious.
What’s worse is that many of those who wilfully and brazenly flouted the rules while destructively bullying everyone else and very frequently making matters worse do actually look set to get away with it, the likes of Cummings and Acland-Hood.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories.
The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.
Heaven help,us.
It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.
But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.
I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.
But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.
Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
Absolutely rightly.
As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.
If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.
But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.
Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.
But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
The most vulnerable seats for the Conservatives: Winchester, Cheltenham, C&W, Esher & Walton (maybe - might go back a bit next time as attentions will be split elsewhere), Lewes, Guildford, Wimbledon, Cheadle, South Cambridgeshire, and St Ives (maybe). Hazel Grove is a stretch target. So I expect 7-11 Lib Dem gains.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Overall, the results were considerably worse for the Conservatives than I had thought, yesterday afternoon. The party went from losing one sixth of its seats to one quarter. That said, it's not the kind of result the party was suffering in the 1990's.
Nor yet 2019 either when the Conservatives got just 28% in the May locals
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
So Keir will be leading by example then ?
He didn't lie to parliament about what he did in no. 10.
He set the bar, let's see what happens when he is asked in Parlt. as he inevitably will be,.
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
Multiple breaches while a minister of the Crown, at a time when the rules were severe?
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party. The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.
Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
Just Castle Point actually. They want to be a separate District. Canvey Islanders have always had a thing about being looked down on by what are perceived as the snooty people in Benfleet, to their immediate North, and when the District (now Borough) of Castle Point was created one could, and can still, find plenty of people who will tell you that 'all the money goes to Benfleet'. There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
The narcissism of small differences comes to mind.
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
The ban also applies to Russian and USSR flags too.
Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.
In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.
It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.
So what do the police do when the Ukrainians break out the flags anyway? Arresting them would be a reaaaly bad look
Morning all.
One can perhaps see one version of logic, given Berlin.
However, the article seems to suggest the ban applies to 'WW2 sites'. Just what is one of those in the context of Berlin?
"But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites."
The note as reproduced:
There are a number of sites associated with WW2 that are still prominent in Berlin. Most notable are the vast flak towers that were built in several German cities during the war. These vast edifices were so large that they proved almost impossible to destroy after the war although some were slighted and others turned to other uses. They are well worth a visit if you are ever in Berlin just to see their scale.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
HYUFD is that you?
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.
Thread of the evening.
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)
John Harris @johnharris1969 · 4h Replying to @johnharris1969 It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)
John Harris @johnharris1969 P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses
Its a combination of the expansion of graduates with degrees of little use and the massive expansion of debt they're stuck with to get those degrees of little use.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
They can certainly still be middle class even if not necessarily upper middle class or rich enough to be in the top 10% of earners. That would largely have required them to go to Russell Group universities only to study law, medicine, economics or a STEM subject.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
That depends upon how you define middle class.
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
The Tories are largely the authors of their own misfortunes on this and deserve what they will get,
I'd also expect Boris Johnson to comfortably hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat, although Macdonald and Balfour both lost theirs at an election immediately after they had resigned.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Overall, the results were considerably worse for the Conservatives than I had thought, yesterday afternoon. The party went from losing one sixth of its seats to one quarter. That said, it's not the kind of result the party was suffering in the 1990's.
My sense is that Boris would be facing a VoNC and ejection if there were a better candidate waiting in the wings.
But, there isn't - so I expect the parliamentary party to push for a new economic approach and reshuffle instead and bide its time.
If there is a VoNC it will come after the by-elections and I'd expect him to survive it.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Well said. The bubble stuff looks ridiculous watching from afar.
Lying to parliament isn't bubble stuff. The Ministerial Code is there for a reason. Standards in public life are there for a reason. And the same pattern of dishonesty and hypocrisy runs through everything this PM and his coterie does. They are poisoning the well of political life in this country. This matters.
“Were there any more ‘parties’?” “No” “But, but two years ago you spent nine minutes being ambushed by your wife with a birthday cake. You’re a lying liar who should resign for lying”
It looks ridiculous watching from afar.
From afar, you didn’t live through our restrictions, sitting at home unable to visit friends or relatives - however desperate the need, theirs or yours - watching the PM on TV almost every night lecturing us about the need to follow the rules, for the sake of the NHS and everyone’s health.
Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
Wales was terrible for the Tories..
And Scotland - the Unionists have a new champion to carry the torch.
I dont care which unionists top things there so long as the overall unionist position is strengthened. Unfortunately quite a lot of seats are uncertain which flavour of unionist is the best bet.
Despite Dowden's heroic "800 losses" spinning there's no way these results can be interpreted as other than "bad". Yes, it's mid-term, and yes, other PMs have faced worse and gone on to win - but what matters is what Tory MPs believe. The real question is "has Johnson turned into an outright liability (Thatcher Poll Tax, EU)?" or does he still have electoral appeal? What also complicates the picture is London Labour's "gaining Mayfair, losing Hull" trajectory, and how they appeal to voters in both. Is Starmer the man for the job (and "what is a man"?)?
As the old Arab curse goes "may your children live in interesting times".
It's worth a note that the number of Councillors is falling - I think. So 500 losses now is more significant than 500 losses 20 years ago.
The best estimate I can find is the total no of councillors down by 10% in 20 years.
Aaron bell soundbite r2 news. Nothing has changed, letter staying with Brady, time to get on with it
Tories gained seats in his constituency
Suggests he is doing something right?
With due respect to our favourite Tory MP, that’s a trend that has been going on a while in Staffs and didn’t just apply to NuL. There was a gain in Cannock Chase as well and Amanda Milling is not responsible for that.
Comments
But here’s the thing. Labour is offering nothing as an alternative. Ask someone vaguely normal what Labour stands for and there will be a vague answer given with an overemphasis of letting more immigrants in and men to call themselves women if they want. Labour does not have any solutions to the problems facing ordinary people today.
And most people recognise those problems they are facing are also being faced by most countries elsewhere and largely outside their Governments’ control - rising inflation due to supply chain issues / commodity price increases, the war in Ukraine, COVID etc. People may say BJ’s Government has got things wrong but it doesn’t stand out amongst Governments across the world for the awfulness of its actions. In some cases (eg ending mandates early, vaccine rollout), people probably feel even grateful.
So, if you are worried about rising utility bills, inflation etc, why would you vote Labour? They are not offering anything even vaguely credible to fix things. So why not stick with the Devil you know?
There are more councillors from Benfleet, which adds to the impression.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/06/california-rare-deep-sea-fish-monterey-bay
The people I talk to in the south are uniquely angry with Boris. In many ways they give the government a pass as they realise the incredibly difficult situation - the government’s performance has been ok if not inspiring.
But Boris has abused their trust band taken the piss. They are voting LibDem in protest but it’s not just classic mid term.
Replace Boris and a lot of the angry will dissipate. But in regards him I think views are solidifying. I don’t see a way back for him at this point
But as the Bank of England forecasts double-digit inflation and that the UK could plunge into recession, there will be some old-fashioned/idealistic/desperate people wondering: where are the ideas? What on earth is the plan? The government’s entire policy programme currently amounts to a small timeshare hotel in Rwanda and George Eustice’s suggestion that people might want to give supermarket value ranges a go. It all feels like busywork, the appearance of action. Far from attempting to shape events, the government seems to wait for them to turn up – good or bad – and then react to them.
2015 promised seven-day GP access, and devoted a mere seven words to £12bn of welfare cuts. Three times as many words were given to their policy on polar bears. 2017 promised something other than the entire body politic convulsing over nothing but Brexit for more than two years. 2019 – well, how’s that working out for ya? Only against these yardsticks could those snap election rumours make a lunatic sort of sense.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/06/boris-johnson-tories-snap-election-no-10-local-elections?CMP=share_btn_tw
I’m not convinced it’s SKS, who has rightly concentrated his efforts on reforming his party and dragging it closer to electable by neutering the fringe elements that previously dominated. That said, he also needs to watch for fringe elements on the North-London side, and for God’s sake be able to say that a woman is an adult human female, before he gets asked the question in front of an audience of 10m in an election debate.
Going all in on birthday cake while forgetting his own minor misdemeanours in the same area, was somewhat clumsy, but I still think these silly stories will be forgotten over time.
What he needs now, is some serious policy thinking. What is his plan to make life better for the average person? Blair had the minimum wage, class sizes and NHS investment, so what does SKS’s Labour Party actually want to do if elected?
Whose side is Germany on? If they're aspiring to neutrality that's a moral failing.
‘It was a tough night for Keir Starmer’
-Nadhim Zahawi
-@BBCr4today
It’s a very different political climate than the U.K.
Not that we've been great on that, but we're certainly way ahead of the Germans when it comes to Ukraine/Russia.
The Dead Ringers caricature of him is unfortunately spot on.
If Boris remains then the Conservatives don't even reach "toast" status, More like stale bread that fails to make it out of the wrapper. In the leafy Conservative seats Boris is seen as a vulgar lying oaf that you'd cross the street to avoid - Advantage LibDems.
In the Red Wall and suburbs some of the spiv shine remains but then it'll be "the economy stupid" that rubs away the remaining gloss - Advantage Labour and Others.
Boris Remains = Electoral Catastrophe
Boris Goes = Electoral Hope .. Perhaps.
How Stupid Do The Stupid Party Want To Be?
The people I work with in Berlin were very nervous indeed. Even people in Heidelberg were worried and not making travel plans as a result.
Our privileged position behind 20miles of sea shouldn’t stop us being able to be sympathetic to this.
Quick counter-factual. If the Durham decision had come out pre-election, what would have happened. Greens and LDa still doing very well, what about Labour?
The Met police set a precedent by not doing updates .
Looking from the perspective of of the Lib Dems, it was a good, solid set of results, with a few outstanding wins, such as Somerset, Woking and Westmoreland. Clearly several formerly Lib Dem seats, e.g. Cheltenham, are set to return to the yellow column in the next House of Commons, and even 30 seats could prove crucial, especially if SNP losses were to bring the Lib Dems back to being the third party in Parliament, which would massively help their profile. Labour too can point to historic results in Wandsworth and Westminster, and clearly they have improved their position in Scotland, which opens up some interesting possibilities. Although the SNP mostly held steady, they had several scares and they must be concerned that the nationalist wave is not advancing much beyond what they already hold and in some places is going backwards. The small gains for the Scottish Greens notwithstanding, the debacle of "Alba" demonstrates that there is only a very limited Nationalist coalition beyond the SNP itself. Nationalism is facing considerable electoral challenges, and the replacement of the Tories by Labour as the key challenger will make the task of the next SNP leader very hard indeed. That leader may not be that far off, if Holyrood gossip is to be believed.
In Aberdeenshire the Liberal Democrats, who already had their largest Scottish council group there, have made a gain and after the disappointment of failing to gain a North East list seat in the last election to the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Lib Dems must fancy their chances for gains in both the North East and the Highlands next time at both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections.
For the Conservatives the results are obviously someting of a nadir, and there is no doubt that many voters deeply loathe the Prime Minister and all his works. The party looks tired and the desparate ramping of their media supporters- the Mail and Express especially- simply looks ludicrous. Whereas humility ("we will learn the lessons") might seem weak to the bumptious cretins in CCHQ, it is far better than "Labour still can´t win" and a litany of smear tactics which actually do not have the impact away from Westminster that they hope for.
On the topic of the "Westminister bubble", I think that MPs are more immune to it than the media. The MPs go back to their constituencies, the Lobby never does. It is the media that most loves the fetid late night gossip, and this is pretty unhealthy for our democracy. The fact that the PM and various ministers are journalists themselves is also part of the problem. Partygate and other microscandals are deeply unserious and discredit British politics around the world. As a former Finnish PM said last week "Britain needs to pull its socks up".
Riiiight.
Anti-Tory voting is back in a big way thanks to Boris, with millions happy to vote for whoever is challenging in their seat. The Tory losses were huge.
But this is unlikely to be about that, especially given the initial agreement now reneged on. This is about certain German politicians being so far up Putin's arse that they could inspect his teeth for him.
One can perhaps see one version of logic, given Berlin.
However, the article seems to suggest the ban applies to 'WW2 sites'. Just what is one of those in the context of Berlin?
"But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites."
The note as reproduced:
Whereas I think you are right and I don't think the LDs will win either Surrey Heath nor SW Surrey I don't think your reasons are correct @Casino_Royale . I appreciate you are very close to SW Surrey and my knowledge is also several decades olds, but the reasons you give applied then and then they were potential seats for the LDs. Just to explain I was heavily involved in both and knew them both intimately. And when I say intimately I really mean it. I can't say how without giving away my identity.
SW Surrey
The LDs have come within 800 odd votes of winning. It was the number 1 target in the SE when we won Guildford. The SW Surrey / Guildford campaign was a joint campaign and Guildford was the secondary target. I was heavily involved. We only won Guildford over SW Surrey because the Tories put up a better fight in SW Surrey and had a better MP in Virginia Bottomley and the reason for this was they were used to having a tough fight in SW Surrey because of previous targeting. It became clear a week before polling day that Guildford was much softer. After all this infighting broke out in SW Surrey LDs. High profile members were expelled, there was a breakaway group and the whole lot collapsed spectacularly (I sadly was involved in the process and just wanted to bang heads together)
Surrey Heath
Surrey Heath was rock solid Tory. The LDs got their act together in the 90s/00s and it became a development seat for the LDs (ie a future target). Several key activists moved away and it dropped back again. I have had no local knowledge for sometime now. The LDs seem to be doing very well there now. I look at the names of the councillors and I recognise only 2 or 3. Once I would have known every activist. Over a decade out they seem to have a lot of fresh blood and seem to be doing very well.
Edit: it did have big guns before, though. 152mm in modern inches.
http://beyondthepoint.co.uk/thorney-bay-army-camp-scars-elbow-battery/
Purely in cynical party advantage terms, the case for changing from Johnson now is that it would show that the Conservative Party has a pulse and is not merely the Save Big Dog Special Operation. A new leader would certainly get a honeymoon for a while and might get some forward moementum. The case against is that a couple of months of internal party navel-gazing is exactly what the public don't want from Government in deteriorating conditions, and the "Exciting new leader" trick will work better a year out from the election instead of two years.
I expect Conservative MPs to be swayed by the latter argument, and the "something may turn up" thought. If Johnson's popularity revives by next year, they'll feel there isn't a problem. If it doesn't, dump him then.
They would, I think, be making a mistake in pinning their hopes to beergate. It's awkward, but either there's a FPN and Starmer probably quits, or there isn't and he can point to the contrast. Either way it's hard to imagine anyone talking about it in 2024.
A not-Boris probably loses next time in a dignified non catastrophic way.
Boris probably leads to a really bad defeat, but he's also talismanic and ruthless in a crisis, so you never know...
His distribution of results peaks lower but has a fatter tail.
So if you're Barry Redwall, in a marginal seat, Sunak or Hunt sign the death warrant on your political career. Johnson gives you a 1% chance, and 1% is better than 0.1%.
Similarly, if you are Bufton Tufton in a safe seat (say it was safe in 1997, or 2005), sacking Johnson doesn't save your seat personally, and keeping him gives you a small chance of remaining in government.
The only MPs who benefit personally from ditching Johnson are those who survive a small defeat under AN Other but are at bigger risk in a big Johnson defeat. Put like that, I'm not sure there are many of those.
The moral is, don't put an idiot like Johnson in charge, because he'll be a bugger to remove. If you doubt this, there's a man called Dominic with a lot to say on the subject.
The result is a huge number of new graduates each year who having been to university think they're entitled to a middle class lifestyle but don't have the skillset to achieve it.
Which inevitably leads them to blaming the government, the economic system, society as a whole.
And produces a class of people who require the creation of public sector middle class non-jobs for them to achieve the middle class lifestyle they think they're entitled to.
I happen to live next to SSW, and I'm close to Surrey Heath too. It's not a racing certainty Hunt will lose SSW. It would only be vulnerable in the case of a Tory landslide defeat. Hunt's vote has hovered at well over 30k since 2010 and he's been the MP for 17 years and built up a significant personal vote. He's good at winning over liberal Tories, and working the seat, and is well regarded locally.
Yes, opposition has consolidated behind the Liberal Democrats, but he'd need a major direct swing from hitherto solid Tories to the Liberal Democrats for him to lose it.
“No”
“But, but two years ago you spent nine minutes being ambushed by your wife with a birthday cake. You’re a lying liar who should resign for lying”
It looks ridiculous watching from afar.
But inevitably they will, so maybe it would be better (and more consistent with freedom of expression) to let everyone turn up with whatever flags they want (except Nazi flags), and concentrate on preventing clashes between rival sympathisers. Ukrainian flags would undoubtedly dominate, even though the Russian expats recently put up a show too with a cavalcade of Z-cars, so the impression that Germany is largely sympathetic to Ukraine would prevail, without the need to wrestle with participants to take their flags away.
What is clear too is the expansion if graduates from about 10% of 25 year olds 40 years ago to about 40% now has also turned Labour from the party of the working class to the party of university graduates.
The Tories can still win graduates with a Cameron like leader but not a Boris type leader, although Boris has far more appeal and still does to the skilled working class voters in particular who have left Labour
He'll do the same as Bojjo and Sturgeon did when breaking their own rules and say it was somehow different and it's time to move on.
What’s worse is that many of those who wilfully and brazenly flouted the rules while destructively bullying everyone else and very frequently making matters worse do actually look set to get away with it, the likes of Cummings and Acland-Hood.
In contrast to no offence at a different time?
Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
Beyond that it gets much harder for the Liberal Democrats and you're really looking at a Tory meltdown for them to do much better.
They don't have an easy path back to their pre GE2010 tally because the politics of the south-west of England have changed so much, so their hopes are really invested in posh/affluent spa-towns and liberal suburbia.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nicola-sturgeon-accused-hypocrisy-after-26337343
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13554191/nicola-sturgeon-sorry-mask-covid-breach/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55419564
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1597591/Nicola-Sturgeon-news-police-investigation-covid-face-mask-rules-snp-latest-scotland-update
Why;s she still in the job ?
For me if you cannot afford to buy the average home in your area then you're not middle class.
That's a problem the Conservatives will have to deal with in southern England.
And promises about possible future inheritances aren't going to help.
Sitting PMs almost never get defenestrated locally, and the profile of the seat simply isn't one where all opposition will be willing to vote Labour tactically to eject him - it voted to leave at the EU referendum.
It might be different if Boris was merely a minister, it was heavily pro-Remain, and the Lib Dems were snapping at his heels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/mayors/E09000008
Utter classist rubbish. Education is the key to a civil society. Right wing populists demanding education only for the elites (generally themselves) reminds me why I have never voted Conservative.
But, there isn't - so I expect the parliamentary party to push for a new economic approach and reshuffle instead and bide its time.
If there is a VoNC it will come after the by-elections and I'd expect him to survive it.
The best estimate I can find is the total no of councillors down by 10% in 20 years.
Does anyone have an accurate number?
It’s more to do with demographic change.