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Can Johnson survive the Tory LE2022 flop? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageCan Johnson survive the Tory LE2022 flop? – politicalbetting.com

What makes the aftermath of the local elections so dangerous for the prime minister is that the outcome was not predicted. The Tory losses were far in excess of what anybody thought was going to happen and it is going to take some time for this to be digested by the party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,187
    Test
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Despite Dowden's heroic "800 losses" spinning there's no way these results can be interpreted as other than "bad". Yes, it's mid-term, and yes, other PMs have faced worse and gone on to win - but what matters is what Tory MPs believe. The real question is "has Johnson turned into an outright liability (Thatcher Poll Tax, EU)?" or does he still have electoral appeal? What also complicates the picture is London Labour's "gaining Mayfair, losing Hull" trajectory, and how they appeal to voters in both. Is Starmer the man for the job (and "what is a man"?)?

    As the old Arab curse goes "may your children live in interesting times".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166
    edited May 7
    The other complication is that up to now, it has mainly been new Red Wall MPs nervous for their seats and critical of the government's inaction over levelling up, that have been calling for Boris's head. After the local elections, it is established MPs in the party's traditional heartlands, who have seen councillors and councils falling to the LibDems, that will now be looking hard at their own prospects at the next general election. The question for them will not be who, as Prime Minister, will return the Conservative government for yet another term, but who will save their own seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 7
    Reports from Croydon that the Conservatives are about 500 votes ahead in the final round of the mayoral contest. Recount underway.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,155
    Somerset and a poor result in tiverton could send shivers down the spine of SW Tory MPs who a decsde ago were fighting a powerful LD challenge..i reckon this weekend could see some nervous mutterings about doi g the deed against BJ
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579
    Andy_JS said:

    Tissue_Price will be pleased about this. Just noticed it.

    "Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Con +7
    Lab -1
    Ind -3
    LD -3"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000195

    How is it a Conservative hold? Surely a Conservative gain.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166

    Andy_JS said:

    Tissue_Price will be pleased about this. Just noticed it.

    "Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Con +7
    Lab -1
    Ind -3
    LD -3"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000195

    How is it a Conservative hold? Surely a Conservative gain.
    Presumably the independents were not as independent as you'd have thought.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    I thought the MPs would move earlier this year, and I was wrong. So I’m wary about predicting the letters going in now, but I do think these results should spell out to MPs just how much of a liability Johnson is.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    A very good thread Mike.

    The Conservatives lost nearly 500 seats. It is, indeed, devastating.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Somerset and a poor result in tiverton could send shivers down the spine of SW Tory MPs who a decsde ago were fighting a powerful LD challenge..i reckon this weekend could see some nervous mutterings about doi g the deed against BJ

    Indeed. And Surrey where there are big hitting MPs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 7
    tlg86 said:

    I thought the MPs would move earlier this year, and I was wrong. So I’m wary about predicting the letters going in now, but I do think these results should spell out to MPs just how much of a liability Johnson is.

    If the letters go in, a lot of them will probably be from MPs in the south, not the so-called red wall.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,908
    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    I don’t know if you saw my comment aimed at you yesterday @Heathener but I wanted to thank you for the tip on Woking. I had a fiver. I also wanted to thank the person who,tipped Barnet as I had some money on that too.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    The disingenuous fat fornicator is safe.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    edited May 7
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
    Dog whistle politics for one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories..
    And Scotland - the Unionists have a new champion to carry the torch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,698
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    The results are in and it's yet another attempt by the SNP to pretend 55% is less than 45%.

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1522815760678150144
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    F1: Mercedes, especially Russell, looking in good form in the first practice sessions.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
    Is that a real question?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    At least one T-90M, Russia's most advanced tank, has been destroyed in fighting. The T-90M was introduced in 2016 and includes improved armour, an upgraded gun and enhanced satellite navigation systems.

    Approximately 100 T-90M tanks are currently in service amongst Russia's best equipped units, including those fighting in Ukraine. The system’s upgraded armour, designed to counter anti-tank weaponry, remains vulnerable if unsupported by other force elements.

    The conflict in Ukraine is taking a heavy toll on some of Russia’s most capable units and most advanced capabilities. It will take considerable time and expense for Russia to reconstitute its armed forces following this conflict.

    It will be particularly challenging to replace modernised and advanced equipment due to sanctions restricting Russia’s access to critical microelectronic components.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1522815718999289856
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    It's Sunak who should be worried about his position, not Boris.

    We know Boris will demand anyone else lays down their political life to protect him. And he's now an easy target.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Taz said:

    I don’t know if you saw my comment aimed at you yesterday @Heathener but I wanted to thank you for the tip on Woking. I had a fiver. I also wanted to thank the person who,tipped Barnet as I had some money on that too.

    Oh wow well done & thank you! I'm really pleased.

    I've had a decent run recently: won well on the US elections, then Chesham & Amersham, Macron and now the LibDems in Woking.

    But then I fucked up over the invasion so it's all relative :wink:
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    edited May 7
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    I think you are underestimating the LD threat. Even here in Merton, the LDs are on the march. Lots of Surrey seats in play at the next GE. I would probably say the most likely outcome of the next GE is the Tories short of a majority (305-310 seats).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,698
    murali_s said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    I think you are underestimating the LD threat. Even here in Merton, the LDs are on the march. Lots of Surrey seats in play at the next GE. I would probably say the median outcome of the next GE is the Tories short of a majority (305-310 seats).
    Merton? Where the LDs came very close to winning in 2019? That Merton?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I thought the MPs would move earlier this year, and I was wrong. So I’m wary about predicting the letters going in now, but I do think these results should spell out to MPs just how much of a liability Johnson is.

    If the letters go in, a lot of them will probably be from MPs in the south, not the so-called red wall.
    I think this is absolutely right. We've assumed it was the red wall tories but in appeasing them, Boris Johnson has neglected the base. And the base are not happy.

    The thing is, he doesn't have any answer. It's one thing to blah blah about levelling up but the fact is that he has ridden roughshod over traditional tory values. He is a PM who has spaffed out on the country's credit card with high spending and high taxation. To which is added a complete lack of morality and ethics and a large dose of the kind of 'wokeness' which gets right up blue tory noses.

    I think the blue wall may be about to turn on him. Remember, these are the ones who know how to defenestrate their leader.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    Betting Post

    F1: maybe presumptuous based on practice but I've split one stake backed Russell at 9 and Hamilton at 15 each way to be fastest qualifier.

    We'll see how that plays out, but if they're on terms then the odds are too long.

    I'll likely put the pre-qualifying tosh up fairly soon rather than waiting until the evening and third practice.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,621
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
    Is that a real question?
    Yes it is a real question. The description of your opponents as 'vile' is moving rapidly to the intolerance of the politics of hate.
    It is a major reason the left has done so badly over the last 50 years or so.
    For example Brown and Corbyn had it Blair didn't.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 603
    If BJ stays then the locals next year will see the Lib Dems getting a massive boost from success from district councils which are much better hunting grounds for them (cf. Somerset and Westmoreland) which were not voting in 2022. The success in this year's locals will encourage those organising for the next ones.. Throw in a parliamentary by-election or two and the Conservatives might wish they had never heard of Boris Johnson.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?

    If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.

    What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    The Times:

    The Conservatives have lost hundreds of council seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats as Tory MPs in the party’s southern heartlands openly question Boris Johnson’s leadership

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1522818785891307523
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    murali_s said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    I think you are underestimating the LD threat. Even here in Merton, the LDs are on the march. Lots of Surrey seats in play at the next GE. I would probably say the most likely outcome of the next GE is the Tories short of a majority (305-310 seats).
    We can all stick pins on the donkey but at this stage we're acting blindfold. Events dear boy, events.

    I think you're right though: this yellow advance into the blue wall is highly significant. The tories cannot win a majority if the blue wall is crumbling.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    The Times:

    The Conservatives have lost hundreds of council seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats as Tory MPs in the party’s southern heartlands openly question Boris Johnson’s leadership

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1522818785891307523

    There you go.

    I think it's this which may finish him. Not the red wall tories at all, who are probably still gooey-eyed about the oaf. It's the blue wall which is about to knife him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    Heathener said:

    And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.

    Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) and Hunt clocks well over 30k votes and 50%+ of the vote in Surrey South-West. The age profile of the Tory core vote in what are suburban/semi-rural & wealthy areas is solid for both.

    Raab is different.

    Don't get high on your own supply.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,917
    Boris is toast.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.

    But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.

    Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 7

    Johnson owns the Conservative party .

    Utter gibberish.

    You are transferring Trump to the UK and it's a no-go.

    Johnson is lauded by the red wall. But he does not 'own' the blue wall. He never has and he never will.

    p.s. the rest of your post was good though :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,142

    Betting Post

    F1: maybe presumptuous based on practice but I've split one stake backed Russell at 9 and Hamilton at 15 each way to be fastest qualifier.

    We'll see how that plays out, but if they're on terms then the odds are too long.

    I'll likely put the pre-qualifying tosh up fairly soon rather than waiting until the evening and third practice.

    Yes that’s a good bet. Mercedes’ upgrades have bought them closer to Ferrari and Red Bull - the latter of which seems to be having reliability issues in the heat of Miami.

    Could be a somewhat disrupted qualifying session too, so it might be down to who’s in the right place at the right time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,917
    edited May 7
    And with that, back to my Dart Music Festival. Superb weather for the setting up on Thursday. Superb weather for the first day yesterday. A blistering set by blues-rockers Catfish. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs0x-YgpDpA )

    Just walked the dog. A perfect day out there.

    Advice: get on with your lives - and let us Tory activists worry about getting on with moving Boris out.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    edited May 7

    Andy_JS said:

    Tissue_Price will be pleased about this. Just noticed it.

    "Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Con +7
    Lab -1
    Ind -3
    LD -3"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000195

    How is it a Conservative hold? Surely a Conservative gain.
    Election by thirds ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    I don’t know if you saw my comment aimed at you yesterday @Heathener but I wanted to thank you for the tip on Woking. I had a fiver. I also wanted to thank the person who,tipped Barnet as I had some money on that too.

    Oh wow well done & thank you! I'm really pleased.

    I've had a decent run recently: won well on the US elections, then Chesham & Amersham, Macron and now the LibDems in Woking.

    But then I fucked up over the invasion so it's all relative :wink:
    As long as our successes exceed the fuck ups all is good 👍👍
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 7
    As we know Labour did very well in Worthing. But this is the popular vote in Adur, which is Shoreham:

    Lab 7,011
    Con 6,881
    Green 2,517
    Ind 742
    LD 637
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Andy_JS said:

    As we know Labour did very well in Worthing. But this is the popular vote in Adur, which is Shoreham:

    Lab 7,011
    Con 6,881
    Green 2,517
    Ind 742
    LD 637

    Good isn’t it! You can se a future for West Sussex where Labour wins the coast and the Lib Dems win the Downs.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943
    Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.

    The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.

    And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    Isn't increasing the size of the cake an option.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 7

    Heathener said:

    And Jeremy Hunt has nothing to lose. He won't be an MP after 2024 at this rate. Nor will Raab and nor will Gove.

    Nonsense. Surrey Heath is extremely safe (it has the 2nd highest proportions of owned-outright, detached homes in the south-east) .
    Surrey Heath is not Jeremy Hunt's constituency. Presumably you mean Michael Gove.

    Jeremy Hunt's constituency is Surrey South West and he is in big trouble. In 2019 there was a 15% swing to the Lib Dems and Hunt held it 31,000 to 23,000. Right now I'd say it's a racing certainty he would lose the seat.

    And re. the wealth, that's exactly what they said about my ward: Hook Heath (hence my name) is extremely wealthy. One of the most genteel high-end places in the whole of Surrey where you'd be hard pressed to find a single property under £1m. It used to be a safe Conservative area. Not any more. It wasn't even close. The Lib Dems won it 1500 to 1000.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 603
    Robert (rcs1000) says: "The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees.." Retirees are like elephants - they will not forget Partygate after the sacrifices they made through the pandemic - the dislike of Boris is visceral. Any bribes have been forgotten. They may not be prepared to vote Labour but Liberal Democrat or Green (if they can concentrate on climate change, rather than more odd policies) will be fine, or they will just stay at home.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    Johnson owns the Conservative party .

    Utter gibberish.

    You are transferring Trump to the UK and it's a no-go.

    Johnson is lauded by the red wall. But he does not 'own' the blue wall. He never has and he never will.

    p.s. the rest of your post was good though :wink:
    Johnson owns the party. It will not move against him. He represents the English nationalism that most Tory MPs and members believe in. However, he does not own the voters. There is a very big difference.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As we know Labour did very well in Worthing. But this is the popular vote in Adur, which is Shoreham:

    Lab 7,011
    Con 6,881
    Green 2,517
    Ind 742
    LD 637

    Good isn’t it! You can se a future for West Sussex where Labour wins the coast and the Lib Dems win the Downs.
    The Jurassic coast - from Bournemouth to Exeter - is also worth watching over the longer term.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tissue_Price will be pleased about this. Just noticed it.

    "Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Con +7
    Lab -1
    Ind -3
    LD -3"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000195

    How is it a Conservative hold? Surely a Conservative gain.
    Election by thirds ?
    Checking, I see I was wrong - but so was the posted result. It was Con +2, not +7 as posted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.

    But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.

    Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
    Welsh and Scottish voters seem to have cottoned on to the fact the Tories are now an English nationalist party.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    Johnson owns the Conservative party .

    Utter gibberish.

    You are transferring Trump to the UK and it's a no-go.

    Johnson is lauded by the red wall. But he does not 'own' the blue wall. He never has and he never will.

    p.s. the rest of your post was good though :wink:
    Johnson owns the party.
    He really, really, doesn't but we can agree to differ. I think you're applying Trump to the Cons party and it doesn't work.

    Johnson has never been popular amongst his MPs, except perhaps that coterie of 2019 red wallers. But the traditional tories?

    Nope. And nope again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    As we know Labour did very well in Worthing. But this is the popular vote in Adur, which is Shoreham:

    Lab 7,011
    Con 6,881
    Green 2,517
    Ind 742
    LD 637

    Good isn’t it! You can se a future for West Sussex where Labour wins the coast and the Lib Dems win the Downs.
    The Jurassic coast - from Bournemouth to Exeter - is also worth watching over the longer term.

    The erosion of traditional safe seats started in Scotland, went through the red wall and is finally heading south. It has never been a good thing that the parties could hold seats unchallenged for decades. Until now this has impacted Labour and the Lib Dems.

    In the south the Tories rule with particular complacency. It is a wholly good thing if their hegemony is coming to an end.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?

    If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.

    What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.

    Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.

    Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.

    Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.

    Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    By the way, Jonathan Lord MP is also worried. Woking is now another seat I am expecting to flip to the LibDems.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,408
    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661

    Boris is toast.

    He Is toast, but quite possibly toast that is stuck in the corner of the toaster so that it continues to stink out the kitchen.

    And what's changed is that the public have broadly forgiven the Lib Dems for 2010-5. Not so much because of what they've done, but because of time and the awfulness of Johnson's Conservative party.

    The clues were there in C&A and N Shropshire, but now it's clear nationwide. Labour aren't seen as the only anti-Tory game in town, which they were for a while in England. So Labour down in places where they have a low ceiling, but the Conservatives facing systematic attack on two close but distinct fronts.

    Not great for Labour, but worse for the Conservatives. And that effect could be a couple of dozen seats all by itself- see 1992 or 2017 or 2019- when the Conservative seat count didn't really reflect the change in vote share.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Boris is toast.

    He Is toast, but quite possibly toast that is stuck in the corner of the toaster so that it continues to stink out the kitchen.

    And what's changed is that the public have broadly forgiven the Lib Dems for 2010-5. Not so much because of what they've done, but because of time and the awfulness of Johnson's Conservative party.

    The clues were there in C&A and N Shropshire, but now it's clear nationwide. Labour aren't seen as the only anti-Tory game in town, which they were for a while in England. So Labour down in places where they have a low ceiling, but the Conservatives facing systematic attack on two close but distinct fronts.

    Not great for Labour, but worse for the Conservatives. And that effect could be a couple of dozen seats all by itself- see 1992 or 2017 or 2019- when the Conservative seat count didn't really reflect the change in vote share.
    +1
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 151
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tissue_Price will be pleased about this. Just noticed it.

    "Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Con +7
    Lab -1
    Ind -3
    LD -3"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000195

    How is it a Conservative hold? Surely a Conservative gain.
    Election by thirds ?
    Election 2018, Labour 20, Conservative 18, Lib Dem 3, Independent 3
    Labour lost two by-elections, 1 to Conservative, 1 to Independent.
    November 2021, the 4 Independents joined the Conservative group
    so May 4th 2022 the seat count was Conservative 23, Labour 18, Lib Dem 3, hence Conservative hold.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    Heathener said:

    murali_s said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    I think you are underestimating the LD threat. Even here in Merton, the LDs are on the march. Lots of Surrey seats in play at the next GE. I would probably say the most likely outcome of the next GE is the Tories short of a majority (305-310 seats).
    We can all stick pins on the donkey but at this stage we're acting blindfold. Events dear boy, events.

    I think you're right though: this yellow advance into the blue wall is highly significant. The tories cannot win a majority if the blue wall is crumbling.
    The 2023 Locals should do that. Lots of Blue Wall* to go yellow or green with the English Shires voting.

    *a poor term, even worse than the Red Wall, but at least that looked vaguely like a wall on electoral maps.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,142
    philiph said:

    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
    Is that a real question?
    Yes it is a real question. The description of your opponents as 'vile' is moving rapidly to the intolerance of the politics of hate.
    It is a major reason the left has done so badly over the last 50 years or so.
    For example Brown and Corbyn had it Blair didn't.
    That feeds into the debate here a few days ago regarding Parliamentary language.

    It seems old fashioned, but referring to members as being the honourable person for the place that elected them, and referring to errors or misleading statements, is what stops politics from descending into everyone calling each other crooks and liars.

    It’s really important to see your political opponents as honourable but misguided, but sadly many of those on the more extreme ends of politics prefer to depart from these conventions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    Labour got 35% and a 5% lead over the Conservatives in the national equivalent vote, gained most seats and won most councils. That looks like winning to me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    I love the smell of complacency in the morning. It smells like victory.

    Back to a 2018 position for Labour in the Red Wall is quite a turnaround from 2019. It is a quiet and unspectacular aspect of the results, it isn't just Blue Wall Tories that are losing faith.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Johnson owns the Conservative party .

    Utter gibberish.

    You are transferring Trump to the UK and it's a no-go.

    Johnson is lauded by the red wall. But he does not 'own' the blue wall. He never has and he never will.

    p.s. the rest of your post was good though :wink:
    Johnson owns the party.
    He really, really, doesn't but we can agree to differ. I think you're applying Trump to the Cons party and it doesn't work.

    Johnson has never been popular amongst his MPs, except perhaps that coterie of 2019 red wallers. But the traditional tories?

    Nope. And nope again.
    If you are right, Johnson will not be the Tory leader by the end of this year.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,966
    moonshine said:

    Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.

    The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.

    And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.

    His majority dropped by 100, which is OK if you start with a majority of 160, but not so OK if you start with a majority of 80.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943

    moonshine said:

    Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.

    The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.

    And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.

    His majority dropped by 100, which is OK if you start with a majority of 160, but not so OK if you start with a majority of 80.
    Sure. My point is that there’s a lot more water to pass under the bridge and it’s hard to overturn large majorities in one go
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    The Battle of Donbas is raging high, but it’s not going the way Russia wanted it to.

    Almost 20 days in, the much-anticipated and feared grand offensive falls short of expectations.

    It is still not even close to achieving its ultimate goal — the encircling and crippling of the core Ukrainian military group in the region.

    Amid fierce hostilities, Russia has only managed to achieve limited territorial gains at significant cost.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/russias-offensive-in-donbas-bogs-down/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    I love the smell of complacency in the morning. It smells like victory.

    Back to a 2018 position for Labour in the Red Wall is quite a turnaround from 2019. It is a quiet and unspectacular aspect of the results, it isn't just Blue Wall Tories that are losing faith.
    Because Labour didn’t win by a landslide, they think they’re fine. There may be a swing back, but the economic fundamentals look brutal.

    Spinning defeats as insignificant is definitely a step down the slippery slope. If the Tories are now content to lose, that’s half the battle.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    Foxy said:

    Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?

    If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.

    What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.

    Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.

    Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.

    Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.

    Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
    I'm not sure about this "an 80 seat majority is hard to smash in one go" theory.

    Labour's 1945 landslide nearly all went in 1950- Attlee staggered on for a tiny bit longer as a kind of zombie.

    The next change of government was Macmillan to Wilson- that was overturning a majority of 100.

    Wilson's 98 seat majority didn't save him in 1970.

    The swings in the 70s were smaller, sure. But Major to Blair was huge, and 2010 saw the government lose over 90 seats.

    If the voters want a government out, they're quite happy to flip enough seats to make it happen.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637
    Heathener said:

    By the way, Jonathan Lord MP is also worried. Woking is now another seat I am expecting to flip to the LibDems.

    Partly a reflection on a basket case local authority. However, I agree the results there were shocking - not only did the Conservatives win nothing, they didn't even get close - nothing even in the vague region of bundle recount territory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,698

    Boris is toast.

    Not as toast as Raab.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,966
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.

    The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.

    And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.

    His majority dropped by 100, which is OK if you start with a majority of 160, but not so OK if you start with a majority of 80.
    Sure. My point is that there’s a lot more water to pass under the bridge and it’s hard to overturn large majorities in one go
    That's fair.

    If I was a Tory MP I don't think I'd press the button. They're not looking at anything like certain doom, and the replacement would be chosen by people who literally pay money to be members of a party led by Boris Johnson so they can't really assume they'd get a sensible alternative.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    I love the smell of complacency in the morning. It smells like victory.

    Back to a 2018 position for Labour in the Red Wall is quite a turnaround from 2019. It is a quiet and unspectacular aspect of the results, it isn't just Blue Wall Tories that are losing faith.
    Because Labour didn’t win by a landslide, they think they’re fine. There may be a swing back, but the economic fundamentals look brutal.

    Spinning defeats as insignificant is definitely a step down the slippery slope. If the Tories are now content to lose, that’s half the battle.
    You know that bit in 1984 about how wars are important because even if a ruler is otherwise detached from reality, they can't ignore the facts of life when war and national survival are involved? Russia's apparent failure in Ukraine is an example, perhaps.

    There's something similar in Johnsonism. It's about lying with force. It's about Boosterism and saying what people want to hear. It's going to be really tempting for Conservatives to hear "mid term, Lib Dem, it's all fine", but if they act in defiance of the facts on the ground, they're going to be in deep trouble.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709

    Foxy said:

    Johnson owns the Conservative party and is going nowhere. He’s there until the voters throw him out. The question is: will they?

    If this is a traditional mid-term, the 1992 scenario seems arguable to me. But I am not sure that anything is traditional anymore in a time of post-Brexit realignment, covid and a cost of living squeeze that will have a substantial and long-running impact on personal finances and public services. The government is not in control of events.

    What yesterday said to me is that the polls are pretty accurate: there is a sizeable and highly motivated anti-Tory vote out there and it is beginning to get its act together. Boris Johnson is viscerally disliked by a large section of the electorate. If I were a Tory that would scare the life out of me.

    Yes the national projected vote share of Lab 35, Con 30, LD 19, others 16 shows that the recent polling lead for Labour of around 5% is accurate. It also shows a much larger LD vote than we will see at a GE, with a large pool of tactical voters.

    Turnout was similar to previous years, so not much evidence of Tories abstaining, but rather they have switched.

    Overturning an 80 seat majority is generally a long job, but it looks like it is going to happen.

    Incidentally, the next Seventies re-run that we get may well be in industrial relations. 10% inflation yet a paltry pay offer of 2% is not something that my colleagues are very happy about. Expect a Winter of Discontent.
    I'm not sure about this "an 80 seat majority is hard to smash in one go" theory.

    Labour's 1945 landslide nearly all went in 1950- Attlee staggered on for a tiny bit longer as a kind of zombie.

    The next change of government was Macmillan to Wilson- that was overturning a majority of 100.

    Wilson's 98 seat majority didn't save him in 1970.

    The swings in the 70s were smaller, sure. But Major to Blair was huge, and 2010 saw the government lose over 90 seats.

    If the voters want a government out, they're quite happy to flip enough seats to make it happen.
    Especially in these more volatile, less party-loyalty oriented times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    edited May 7

    The Battle of Donbas is raging high, but it’s not going the way Russia wanted it to.

    Almost 20 days in, the much-anticipated and feared grand offensive falls short of expectations.

    It is still not even close to achieving its ultimate goal — the encircling and crippling of the core Ukrainian military group in the region.

    Amid fierce hostilities, Russia has only managed to achieve limited territorial gains at significant cost.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/russias-offensive-in-donbas-bogs-down/

    The Ukranian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv Oblast has retaken a lot of ground too. The Russians have only 5 BTG there, 1 per 20 km of front, so either no depth or wide open to infiltation. The Russian Izium salient is looking rather more like being encircled than the Donbas.

    https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1522699521427484674?t=y9LamXRKpRVvyiQ2r5-Z-w&s=19
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    Good morning everybody.

    No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party.
    The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.

    Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,698

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.

    But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.

    Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
    Absolutely rightly.

    As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.

    If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.

    But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.

    Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.

    But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658

    moonshine said:

    Dodgy PM lies to Parliament over a grave matter of life and death. Mass protests on the streets. Civil war within the Party, poison dripping from every unofficial briefing from “unnamed sources” and more than a few named ones. A perception of cronyism and financial grubbiness takes hold. Rising voter unease at the high tax burden, growing government debt and economist forecasts of an increase in interest rates of 200 or even 300 bps to come. This is what happens when a PM who has become almost bigger than his party is gifted such a massive majority. He swans about the world playing toy soldiers to massage his own ego and disguise domestic shortcomings, with his chancellor littering deficit funded goodies in the direction of his core vote. A mood builds among an angry minority that the man in Downing St would be more appropriately housed behind bars.

    The Government then loses +800 seats at local elections, only two years before the next general, as unspectacular and uninspiring leader of oppo soaks up 500+ new seats. And look, even the Lib Dems are on the up.

    And…. two years later Tony Blair wins a reduced but comfortable majority at the 2005 general election.

    His majority dropped by 100, which is OK if you start with a majority of 160, but not so OK if you start with a majority of 80.
    One could argue it was more like a 110 seat majority given the BXP.

    But, first past the post was outrageously good for Labour in 2005. It’s pretty good for Tories now, but not to that extent.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    I love the smell of complacency in the morning. It smells like victory.

    Back to a 2018 position for Labour in the Red Wall is quite a turnaround from 2019. It is a quiet and unspectacular aspect of the results, it isn't just Blue Wall Tories that are losing faith.
    Because Labour didn’t win by a landslide, they think they’re fine. There may be a swing back, but the economic fundamentals look brutal.

    Spinning defeats as insignificant is definitely a step down the slippery slope. If the Tories are now content to lose, that’s half the battle.
    You know that bit in 1984 about how wars are important because even if a ruler is otherwise detached from reality, they can't ignore the facts of life when war and national survival are involved? Russia's apparent failure in Ukraine is an example, perhaps.

    There's something similar in Johnsonism. It's about lying with force. It's about Boosterism and saying what people want to hear. It's going to be really tempting for Conservatives to hear "mid term, Lib Dem, it's all fine", but if they act in defiance of the facts on the ground, they're going to be in deep trouble.
    Add to that the bubbles of social media. It does get dangerous though. You become so detached from reality you start to claim conspiracies and vote rigging. I cite the Trumpista in the US and the Corbynites ultras at home.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,142
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    The next election, which is now almost certainly going to be in May 2024, has a 1992 ring to it. The goverment’s majority will be reduced to nothing amid difficult economic times.

    The next couple of years will be very difficult economically, especially if full employment doesn’t hold up.

    I think there will be a reshuffle next week, and the domestic focus needs to change to cost-of-living issues, and the scope and cost of government itself.

    Internationally, the West needs to make sure Putin gets defeated militarily in Ukraine. For the sake of humanity, we can’t have a nutter threatening to use nuclear bombs. Thankfully, his army is being rapidly depleted.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.

    In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.

    It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.


    https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/6/7344558/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    It's a reminder that politics is about making choices. The Conservatives made a choice three years ago, to prioritise certain portions of their voting coalition - notably retirees and those in the old Red Wall.

    But, of course, when you prioritise one group, another is deprioritised. One man's tax cut is another man's tax rise.

    I suspect that the Conservative threat from the LDs will not be enough to dethrone them in 2024 (like @MaxPB, I suspect we're heading towards a '92 type election). But the choices will only get harder after the 2024 election: which groups do we want to take more from the limited pot, and which less?
    If the English Tories had taken the terrific beating that the Welsh & Scottish Tories took on Thursday, then Boris would be in real & present danger.

    But, I am not sure the results in England are poor enough to get the panicked letters going in.

    Rightly or wrongly, the Tories will be less concerned about the LDs rather than Labour taking their Council seats. I think rightly.
    Absolutely rightly.

    As things stand, the LDs will gain 6 to 8 seats from the Conservatives in the South East.

    If everything moves in the LDs favour, and they end up on 18-19% at the GE, then they *might* end up picking up 12-14 seats.

    But that's - basically - a best possible scenario for the LDs, and a worst possible one for the Conservatives.

    Now, I agree the Conservatives will likely lose another 2 or 3 in Scotland. And I'm sure Labour will pick up some.

    But the Conservatives have a decent cushion. My 66% probability range is from a Con majority of 30 to Cons 20 short (but still largest party).
    I think the second p[art of your scenario is right; Cons. 20 short, but largest party.
    However who will support them in Government? The DUP are the only ones likely to and they might well not be there, or not in the numbers they have been.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    The next election, which is now almost certainly going to be in May 2024, has a 1992 ring to it. The goverment’s majority will be reduced to nothing amid difficult economic times.

    The next couple of years will be very difficult economically, especially if full employment doesn’t hold up.

    I think there will be a reshuffle next week, and the domestic focus needs to change to cost-of-living issues, and the scope and cost of government itself.

    Internationally, the West needs to make sure Putin gets defeated militarily in Ukraine. For the sake of humanity, we can’t have a nutter threatening to use nuclear bombs. Thankfully, his army is being rapidly depleted.
    Who is the Blair figure in waiting?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    Miss Vance, that's quite bizarre, and in stark contrast to the widespread Ukraine flags I've seen here, and presumably are flying in many other countries too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales results look worse than inner London to me at first glance.

    Wales was terrible for the Tories.

    The real winners were the Lib Dems yesterday. Clearly,resurgent and now with a large councillor base in parts of the country to help campaign when the election comes.

    Heaven help,us.
    Anything to eject the vile Tories can only help.

    The Tories have turned this country into a latrine and they need to be ejected pdq.
    Why/how are they vile?
    Is that a real question?
    Yes it is a real question. The description of your opponents as 'vile' is moving rapidly to the intolerance of the politics of hate.
    It is a major reason the left has done so badly over the last 50 years or so.
    For example Brown and Corbyn had it Blair didn't.
    That feeds into the debate here a few days ago regarding Parliamentary language.

    It seems old fashioned, but referring to members as being the honourable person for the place that elected them, and referring to errors or misleading statements, is what stops politics from descending into everyone calling each other crooks and liars.

    It’s really important to see your political opponents as honourable but misguided, but sadly many of those on the more extreme ends of politics prefer to depart from these conventions.
    It's also foolish and counterproductive.

    If you call your opponents "scum" how likely is it that people who voted for them will want to vote for you?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,917
    Sod politics - this film is my weekend!

    https://www.dartmusicfestival.co.uk/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    Authorities in Berlin have banned Ukrainian flags and other Ukrainian symbols at rallies during commemorative events on May 8 and 9, equating them with separatist and Russian symbols. Ukrainian activists planned to hold a peaceful rally in Berlin and commemorate the victims of World War II, which killed millions of Ukrainians.

    In a comment to EuroPravda, Anna Praine-Kosach, vice president of the Ukrainian-German association Ukraine Future, said that two weeks ago, the Ukrainian community in Berlin agreed with local authorities to hold a rally and received permission.

    It was expected that about 20,000 Ukrainians would gather in Berlin to pay their respects, and no demonstration was planned. But on the evening of May 6, Berlin police sent a document to the organizers banning the use of any Ukrainian symbols when visiting World War II sites.


    https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/6/7344558/

    You know, nobody despises Boris Johnson more than I do.

    But I’m thinking I’d rather have him as PM than these twats running Germany.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is safe despite 400 losses and dipping to 30%. The backbenchers lack a spine and there is no clear alternative.

    I think as importantly Labour didn't really win - the Lib Dems and greens did - so these local elections are classic midterm protests rather than a vote for an alternative government.
    I love the smell of complacency in the morning. It smells like victory.

    Back to a 2018 position for Labour in the Red Wall is quite a turnaround from 2019. It is a quiet and unspectacular aspect of the results, it isn't just Blue Wall Tories that are losing faith.
    I've seen this argument a lot, and it doesn't make any sense to me. We know that local elections and general elections are different, so you can't easily make any judgement about trajectory by comparing the two.

    All we know is that 2022 was similar to 2018 in those areas, and 2018 was followed one year later by the Tories winning a swathe of seats. There's no solid reason to expect those seats to be regained by Labour with the underlying position, as measured by local election results, not having changed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878

    Good morning everybody.

    No-one is discussing the success of the Canvey Island Independence Party in becoming the largest party in Castle Point, likely to be coalition with the oddly named People's Independent Party.
    The Conservatives have been in control in Castle Point for 20 years, and the CIIP a somewhat impotent opposition.

    Now too we wait for the DUP to have a hissy fit when it's a poor second in N. Ireland.

    Do they want independence from Essex or the UK?
This discussion has been closed.