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LAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195

    From failure to implant through to stillbirth, there are plenty of conceptions that don't result in the birth of a child. The resulting level of sorrow increases from zero to devastation as the pregnancy progresses.

    However, these are all natural processes, very different to active intervention to end the life of an unborn child.

    You mean God also performs "abortions"?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited May 2022
    ydoethur said:

    When the mortgage is paid off, the children leave home and the dog dies.
    I'm nearly there - but for the bloody dog.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060
    ydoethur said:

    Only a period? I'm starting to think they deserve an eternity.
    An eternity might create its own problems. Democracy needs a viable opposition.

    But given how bad things are now for the reputation of the Conservatives, and that we may have another 2.5 years of this to come, and that the worse it gets the further away the next GE will be pushed, it could easily be a political generation. However long it takes for all the big beasts of this government to retire into obscurity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    If the USA had legalised abortion in Congress, ie in the same manner as other western countries legalised abortion in their parliaments, then there wouldn't have been decades of argument and the current situation.

    Instead it was done by court cases.
    Ok, yes, but I think this (and certain other imperatives) should be enshrined in something that operates above the level of national governments. So, if a government does something which potentially violates one of these fundamental human rights it can be taken to this higher body and is answerable to it. And this applies even if it passes a law saying otherwise. I realize this cuts across the notion of absolute national sovereignty and of a 'majority rules ok' idea of democracy but that's a feature, imo, not a bug.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    At birth.
    What is special about birth? Topologically speaking, it's just moving from inside a cylinder to outside it. Biologically, it is going from 100% dependency on the mother to 100% dependency on the mother.

    As I have already asked, would your answer differ if humans were marsupial? Why?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,559

    At birth.
    Fully out, or just the head showing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited May 2022

    An eternity might create its own problems. Democracy needs a viable opposition.

    But given how bad things are now for the reputation of the Conservatives, and that we may have another 2.5 years of this to come, and that the worse it gets the further away the next GE will be pushed, it could easily be a political generation. However long it takes for all the big beasts of this government to retire into obscurity.
    Well Labour were out of power for 18 years from 1979 to 1997, the Conservatives were out of power for 13 years from 1997 to 2010 and Labour have been out of power for 12 years since they lost power in 2010.

    You have to go back to the 1970s to find the last time a party which lost power returned to power in less than a decade
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    Leon said:

    A straw man. No one on PB at this moment - as far as I can see - is adopting the fundamentalist, theo-American, Ban All Abortion argument. Everyone is at least in favour of choice, at least early in the pregnancy. It is after that when it gets thorny. Obvs
    There are plenty of people in the US who take that view, mind.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    ydoethur said:

    There is this list:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1895932#Comment_1895932

    Although I note it doesn't mention doxxing.

    If I am mysteriously banned it's possibly because I searched for 'diss Radiohead' and 'Carter Ruck' to find it.
    OGH needs to change ownership of PB to Robert, then Carter Fuck's letters can be safely ignored
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    Leon said:

    Maybe Bart isn’t Pihlip Thompson? Who the F knows?

    Why not just respect his desire to be addressed by his username and stop being a stupid dick
    Yes, I think it matters to use preferred name and pronouns, not to "dead-name" someone who self-identifies with a new name.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074

    Without spending the rest of the evening reading medical journals to confirm, I am fairly confident that there is medical research into the causes of failure to implant, which can result in some women having considerable difficulty in having children.

    And I certainly don't moralise about sex.
    There is something called Recurrent Implantation Failure as a problem among those trying IVF. There is research into it, although it attracts a tiny amount of funding compared to cancer or heart disease. These is research into those who have difficulty conceiving; again attracting little attention comparatively. We see these as problems affecting the people who want to be parents. We don’t see them as problems “killing” millions — indeed billions — of “unborn children”.

    That a typical natural conception event has a probability below a third of getting to the second trimester, that’s just taken to be how human reproduction works. That is just how human reproduction works. No-one is trying to “save” these supposed “unborn children”. As long as you’re averaging around the typical conception rate, we don’t do anything medically. We just tell you to keep creating those zygotes.

    Perhaps the Catholic Church left you ignorant of all this. Perhaps you garnered the impression that God designed us such that conception usually means a baby being born. God didn’t. If God exists, he designed us so that most conception events go nowhere. Either Heaven is full of microscopic balls of cells or God doesn’t think they’re “unborn children” either.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    At birth.
    In Virginia, there was a bill introduced that would effectively have allowed abortion up to the point of birth for that reason. Would you have agreed with that?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    You just said "controls around reason". I agree with that. However, abortion on demand has no such controls.
    I don't support abortion with no controls. Don't know where you're seeing that in anything I've posted. Eg I think our laws in this area are reasonable.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    This thread has leaked an American Supreme Court decision
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    Ok, yes, but I think this (and certain other imperatives) should be enshrined in something that operates above the level of national governments. So, if a government does something which potentially violates one of these fundamental human rights it can be taken to this higher body and is answerable to it. And this applies even if it passes a law saying otherwise. I realize this cuts across the notion of absolute national sovereignty and of a 'majority rules ok' idea of democracy but that's a feature, imo, not a bug.
    Which effectively means rules by the Courts. Which is why the US Supreme Court is such a political hit potato because, in many cases, it gets to set the law outside of the democratic process.

    So, if the SC does ban abortion, would you accept that given your above argument? Or does your argument only apply to laws of which you approve?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    What is special about birth? Topologically speaking, it's just moving from inside a cylinder to outside it. Biologically, it is going from 100% dependency on the mother to 100% dependency on the mother.

    As I have already asked, would your answer differ if humans were marsupial? Why?

    I view women as people in their own right and not just as a cylinder.

    Biologically a born child can be 0% dependent upon the mother post-birth. A mother can die in childbirth and the child can survive, a mother might give a child up for adoption, a mother may be unfit and the child taken into care, or plenty of other options.

    When our children were born my wife found out she was unable to breastfeed which was distressing for her, especially for the judgmental looks she sometimes got from conceited people who insist that bottle is bad without caring about your situation; but I must admit there was a part of me that meant that I enjoyed the fact that a benefit of bottle-feeding is I was able to feed our daughter too as a result.

    Being able to let my wife sleep while I got up to do a middle of the night feeding is a nice thing to be able to do - and not something that could be done if your 100% dependency claim was remotely true.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    IshmaelZ said:

    Broxtowe Deserves Better
    I might be faintly tempted, actually...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,852

    An eternity might create its own problems. Democracy needs a viable opposition.

    But given how bad things are now for the reputation of the Conservatives, and that we may have another 2.5 years of this to come, and that the worse it gets the further away the next GE will be pushed, it could easily be a political generation. However long it takes for all the big beasts of this government to retire into obscurity.
    That will take no time at all, as there aren't any.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060
    HYUFD said:

    Well Labour were out of power for 18 years from 1979 to 1997, the Conservatives were out of power for 13 years from 1997 to 2010 and Labour have been out of power for 12 years since they lost power in 2010.

    You have to go back to the 1970s to find the last time a party which lost power returned to power in less than a decade
    Good point. Which leads to a couple of linked questions.

    During the 60's and 70's, there was a reasonably brisk pendulum. During the 50's and since 1979, the pendulum has got stuck in one position for much longer.

    So why the difference (which state is the abberation?), and what will 2024 look more like?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    Leon said:

    How not to fight a war, part 592

    “Russia accuses Israel of backing ‘neo-Nazis’ in Kyiv as diplomatic row grows”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/03/russia-accuses-israel-backing-neo-nazis-kyiv-diplomatic-row-grows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Jesus: the Russians really are utterly nuts.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    IshmaelZ said:

    You do seem to be a revoltingly silly little man. Ever been to a 14 week scan to learn quite unexpectedly that the ball of cells is fucked?

    I have
    I am sorry for your experience.

    14 weeks isn’t 2 weeks. Much happens between those two dates, whether you call it magical, miraculous or science. What begins as a single cell becomes, over time, something else, and eventually a person.

    The people who are revolting, the people who are minimising what a baby’s life means, are those who insist, against all biology, that an ovum, the instant a sperm penetrates it, has become a person. That’s the nonsense.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I view women as people in their own right and not just as a cylinder.

    Biologically a born child can be 0% dependent upon the mother post-birth. A mother can die in childbirth and the child can survive, a mother might give a child up for adoption, a mother may be unfit and the child taken into care, or plenty of other options.

    When our children were born my wife found out she was unable to breastfeed which was distressing for her, especially for the judgmental looks she sometimes got from conceited people who insist that bottle is bad without caring about your situation; but I must admit there was a part of me that meant that I enjoyed the fact that a benefit of bottle-feeding is I was able to feed our daughter too as a result.

    Being able to let my wife sleep while I got up to do a middle of the night feeding is a nice thing to be able to do - and not something that could be done if your 100% dependency claim was remotely true.
    Though foetuses can survive for a period of time even if the mother is brain dead. Some have been born after such circumstances.

    In that scenario, what is the status of the foetus?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838

    New Thread (and it's by me)

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    IshmaelZ said:

    What is special about birth? Topologically speaking, it's just moving from inside a cylinder to outside it. Biologically, it is going from 100% dependency on the mother to 100% dependency on the mother.

    As I have already asked, would your answer differ if humans were marsupial? Why?
    Anyone who describes birth merely in topological terms has never been at a birth.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,559
    kinabalu said:

    I don't support abortion with no controls. Don't know where you're seeing that in anything I've posted. Eg I think our laws in this area are reasonable.
    I don't think you support abortion with no controls.

    I think our positions are closer together than we initially thought.
  • MrEd said:

    Though foetuses can survive for a period of time even if the mother is brain dead. Some have been born after such circumstances.

    In that scenario, what is the status of the foetus?
    People can be kept alive after brain death, especially with modern machinery. The child may be born to a sadly either deceased or soon-to-be deceased mother which is tragic, but it doesn't change the status.

    Until the moment of birth, the foetus is a potential person and not a real one, the woman is one though and her body remains her own body, even if she's sharing it with a foetus that might become a person in the future.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275

    Good point. Which leads to a couple of linked questions.

    During the 60's and 70's, there was a reasonably brisk pendulum. During the 50's and since 1979, the pendulum has got stuck in one position for much longer.

    So why the difference (which state is the abberation?), and what will 2024 look more like?
    Why the 1966 Labour government became so unpopular so quickly is the strange one.

    And why after a government became so unpopular people are surprised it lost in 1970 is another strange one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited May 2022

    Good point. Which leads to a couple of linked questions.

    During the 60's and 70's, there was a reasonably brisk pendulum. During the 50's and since 1979, the pendulum has got stuck in one position for much longer.

    So why the difference (which state is the abberation?), and what will 2024 look more like?
    The difference in the 1970s was that both main party leaders, Heath and Wilson were reasonably centrist and more electable and the economy performed poorly with high inflation and regular strikes thus making a change of government more likely as occurred in 1970 and 1974. That culminated of course in Thatcher's election in 1979.

    2024 would be par for the course ie an opposition party wins after over a decade out of power, say like 1964 or 2010. If Labour won and the Tories won in 2028/9 that however would be unusual and a return to the 1970s
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074

    Fully out, or just the head showing?
    You make a good point about the absurdity of trying to pick a particular moment. Yet you appear to pick your own absurdity, saying “life” begins at conception. So, when exactly? When the sperm penetrates the ovum’s outer layers? When the cell membranes first touch? When they fuse? When the cell contents mix? When the sperm’s DNA enters the ovum? Or not until the sperm and egg DNA is lined up with each other?

    There is no single moment, I suggest. The only way to avoid your absurdities is to accept that it’s a process over time. What most countries’ laws do is accept that, accept that the zygote has less rights than the 3 month foetus that has less rights than the 6 months foetus that has less rights than the born child.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,182
    IshmaelZ said:

    What is special about birth? Topologically speaking, it's just moving from inside a cylinder to outside it. Biologically, it is going from 100% dependency on the mother to 100% dependency on the mother.

    As I have already asked, would your answer differ if humans were marsupial? Why?

    I have always held that the right time to start considering the foetus as something that should be protected, something 'viable' as 'a life' is the point at which it can reasonably be expected to survive with the help of modern medicine and develop to lead an independent life. There must be a point before which, if the foetus is removed from the mother, it will not be able to continue developing and form an independent human capable of passing through the expected 'ages of man'. This seems to me to be the right point at which to ban abortion except under specific circumstances - evidence of malformity or mortal danger to the mother.

    Obviously all this has to be nuanced and will also change to some extent as our medical abilities continue to evolve but for now it seems to me that we should be able to set a reasonable point at which life has moved from being unviable to viable outside the protection of the womb.

    I don't believe religious arguments should come into it. Nor do I believe the rights of the child should be ignored right up to he point of birth. I do think there are enough sound minds out there willing to engage in the debate rationally to pick a reasonable point in pregnancy - and I actually think the UK and many other countries do this fairly well. But I also think it is reasonable to expect that this termination date will change as medical expertise continues to evolve and trying to carve lines in stone are futile and counter productive.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    kinabalu said:

    Ok, yes, but I think this (and certain other imperatives) should be enshrined in something that operates above the level of national governments. So, if a government does something which potentially violates one of these fundamental human rights it can be taken to this higher body and is answerable to it. And this applies even if it passes a law saying otherwise. I realize this cuts across the notion of absolute national sovereignty and of a 'majority rules ok' idea of democracy but that's a feature, imo, not a bug.
    Well many anti-abortionists would say that they are already answering to a higher body ie god.

    But in the real world who would you have in this 'higher authority' ?

    Nice liberal people from nice liberal countries ?

    Or would there also be representatives of more unpleasant places ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    Except I haven't attempted to deny who I am. I kept my avatar the same, my views remain my views, and I don't mind people associating my views of the past to my views of the present.

    I just ask for the respect of not having my real life name used. Just because you know my name is not a reason to say it and doxx me.
    But was it actually your real name? It always felt like a made-up one to me. Can't quite explain why, but it did.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    Roger said:

    If this is any sort of a community then one of it's appeals is that you know who you are talking to. Everyone has their own style and if year zero is going to be the moment they choose a new username then it becomes much less interesting. I have no interest in anyones identity. Just consistency. Most people know where the different posters are coming from. This will no longer exist. Imagine Big_G changing his username. A whole life story disappears!

    OT. Liverpool now 15/1 on Ladbrokes. A very worthwhile bet I would say
    A good tip from rogerdamus? The world is upside down!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    edited May 2022
    Cancelled
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    rcs1000 said:

    New Thread (and it's by me)

    Nice to get this warning so people can take...appropriate action
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    And a rather pompous and arrogant one too.

    You seem to think that anyone who disagrees with you is your inferior.
    No, I truly don't. It depends on what a person says and how they say it. I'm biased to people who share my opinions but not, I think, to an unusual degree.

    Eg sometimes I've even read one of your posts and gone "Hmm, really disagree with that but it's well expressed and I can tell it's sincere".

    There was one the other week, in fact, on ... well I forget now what it was on but it was a good post.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116

    Except I haven't attempted to deny who I am. I kept my avatar the same, my views remain my views, and I don't mind people associating my views of the past to my views of the present.

    I just ask for the respect of not having my real life name used. Just because you know my name is not a reason to say it and doxx me.

    That's fair enough. I have no problem with your choice of name. As you say you haven't made a secret of your original poster identity. Of course I've got no interest in knowing your or anyone's real identity but if someone who you've never heard of in your life insults your intelligence based on your schooling as someone did recently you're surely entitled to ask who the poster used to be!

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    Looks like my 15/1 tip is going to come up! The Milky Bars are on me.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Roger said:

    If this is any sort of a community then one of it's appeals is that you know who you are talking to. Everyone has their own style and if year zero is going to be the moment they choose a new username then it becomes much less interesting. I have no interest in anyones identity. Just consistency. Most people know where the different posters are coming from. This will no longer exist. Imagine Big_G changing his username. A whole life story disappears!

    OT. Liverpool now 15/1 on Ladbrokes. A very worthwhile bet I would say
    For one reason or another I've changed my username on here, um, about four times. I'd be disappointed if no-one was able to track me through those changes, but I'd hope that if I'd expressed a wish for pseudonymity after using my real name that the rest of the community would respect that.

    And, even though I published my name here alongside a thread header, since I post my comments with a pseudonymous username, everyone has paid me the respect of not hounding me with my real name.

    So, stop being rude.
This discussion has been closed.