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LAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    @Heathener - I responded to your Woking post earlier:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419

    Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?

    I live in Hook Heath, hence my name.

    Very quickly:

    I reckon Heathlands is going LibDem.

    Pyrford looks good for the LibDems. It wasn't a comfortable hold last time.

    Byfleet and West Byfleet could be LibDem. Neil Willetts isn't standing again.


    p.s. curiously Betfair have now offered me a 100% cash out so if I'm not fancying this, I can get the bet back.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,359

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    Well, you can square the two if you see it as preparing the UK to support a decade-long Ukrainian insurgency, eventually resulting in victory over Russia.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Article on what happens if Alliance comes second (and most polling still puts them in third): https://www.northernslant.com/what-happens-if-alliance-comes-second/

    That's an excellent piece.

    Key paragraph here (TLDR – Alliance could designate as unionist for convenience and have form in that regard, although have denied they would ever do it again)

    They could decide to designate as unionist in order to get the job. There is some precedent for this as some Alliance MLAs did it briefly in 2001 to vote in a government and protect the Good Friday Agreement. They undesignated themselves soon after and the party has said that its MLAs won’t do anything similar again.
    20 + years ago? Plenty of time for a reverse ferret.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    "Why not peace with Hitler?"
    "Arm Britain and prolong war"
    "Lend-lease, lose-lives"
    "Europe for Europeans, America for Americans"
    "Stay out of South America, Europe, War"

    Videotape of an anti-war march in NYC July 7, 1941. Pretty much the same arguments as the ones we hear today

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521477751210971140
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    As far as real purpose - gingering up Tory vote & shoring up Red wall gains - it's the thought that counts.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Carnyx said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    On a point of order: 'must' is ambiguous.

    1 = ought to fail (desire)
    2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)

    YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
    Perhaps
    There's no perhaps about it.

    Must beat him and will beat him are completely different, even to liars like you and Boris.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,257
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    BTW - was it you or JJ who recommended the book Dreadnought Gunnery and the Battle of Jutland by John Brooks? Just finished it; most interesting. Wondering about his Jutland book now.
    JJ

    I would have recommended “Rules of The Game” by Gordon.

    There is some interest stuff coming out about fire control - the conventional wisdom about Dreyer seems to be wrong.

    If you want mind boggling levels of detail on Jutland, try Campbell. He is often citied in other works due to the demented level he takes things to.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Map of US state laws on abortion if Roe v Wade is overturned:

    https://i.redd.it/fwak6p2sr6x81.jpg

    It seems to me that, if overturned, its the poor who suffer (yet again) here.

    The well off will just fly to private hospitals in friendly states to get a procedure. The poor will have to risk their lives and health in the back streets operations that will inevitably spring up in the states that make it illegal.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515
    TimT said:

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
    "But boss, I've only just got back from asking for a long weight."
    And you still haven't got it to me nor that can of tartan paint I asked for ...
    nor that new bubble for my spirit level ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    MISTY said:

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
    Just caught that nice Mr Johnson being interviewed by Labour's Susanna Reid. He has Elsie's energy requirements covered. In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Is Susanna a great interviewer or was Boris just overwhelmed by Susanna's luscious legs? Phwoar, ding dong!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Heathener said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    That's not at all the same thing.

    Saying he will fail and saying he must fail are completely different.

    Why do we have to waste so much of our lives explaining Boris Johnson's lies?
    It’s possible he’s lying.

    But he’s saying what he *thought*

    He can you know, other from public statements (and maybe not even then) what he thought at the time?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Boris didn't introduce the Freedom Pass when mayor of London.
    It was already being run/funded by the 33 London boroughs. It still is.
    His Government prevented older Londoners using the Freedom Pass before 930am (under a @tfl bailout) three months after the start of the pandemic.

    https://twitter.com/RossLydall/status/1521404205583450112
  • Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    On a point of order: 'must' is ambiguous.

    1 = ought to fail (desire)
    2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)

    YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
    Perhaps
    There's no perhaps about it.

    Must beat him and will beat him are completely different, even to liars like you and Boris.
    I've never lied about anything here, I have integrity.

    But how's your VPN going, have you dealt with the fact that it was compromised yet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022
    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    If they are Protestant evangelicals rather than Anglicans they are certainly not part of the Apostolic and Catholic Church, Presbyterians and Baptists do not even have Bishops and reject the doctrine of apostolic succession through Bishops
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
    No; just noting the general disorganization. Now you raise it, however, HMG don't seem to have considered the implications of due legal process.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited May 2022
    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Heathener - I responded to your Woking post earlier:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419

    Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?

    I live in Hook Heath, hence my name.

    Very quickly:

    I reckon Heathlands is going LibDem.

    Pyrford looks good for the LibDems. It wasn't a comfortable hold last time.

    Byfleet and West Byfleet could be LibDem. Neil Willetts isn't standing again.


    p.s. curiously Betfair have now offered me a 100% cash out so if I'm not fancying this, I can get the bet back.
    My walking route goes through Hook Heath, so I'll be sure to wave. :smiley:

    I'm not that close to local politics, so I don't have a great feel for what will happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
    "But boss, I've only just got back from asking for a long weight."
    We did send one gullible intern to ask of the student nurses for William Harimee...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Scott_xP said:

    In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Boris didn't introduce the Freedom Pass when mayor of London.
    It was already being run/funded by the 33 London boroughs. It still is.
    His Government prevented older Londoners using the Freedom Pass before 930am (under a @tfl bailout) three months after the start of the pandemic.

    https://twitter.com/RossLydall/status/1521404205583450112
    The main current affairs TV and radio programmes really need to start using real-time fact checkers. So many politicians have taken to blatant and repeated lying in recent months it's at epidemic levels. A fact check after the event just doesn't cut the mustard, it needs to be relayed into the interviewer's earpiece while the politician is still on air.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    On a point of order: 'must' is ambiguous.

    1 = ought to fail (desire)
    2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)

    YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
    Perhaps
    There's no perhaps about it.

    Must beat him and will beat him are completely different, even to liars like you and Boris.
    Not so, Carnyx's point is spot on. We must respect the right of dangerous sex offenders to identify as women, vs the square on the hypotenuse of a right angle triangle must always equal the sum of tsotsoto2s
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    If they are Protestant evangelicals rather than Anglicans they are certainly not part of the Apostolic and Catholic Church, Presbyterians and Baptists do not even have Bishops and reject the doctrine of apostolic succession through Bishops
    The Scotsman is mean, as we're all well aware
    And bony and blotchy and covered with hair
    He eats salted porridge, he works all the day
    And he hasn't got bishops to show him the way!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,257

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
    It was on entering training IIRC - maybe they dropped out?

    There were some ugly threats IIRC from some republicans - that “foreigners shouldn’t get involved in policing”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Boris didn't introduce the Freedom Pass when mayor of London.
    It was already being run/funded by the 33 London boroughs. It still is.
    His Government prevented older Londoners using the Freedom Pass before 930am (under a @tfl bailout) three months after the start of the pandemic.

    https://twitter.com/RossLydall/status/1521404205583450112
    So he...lied?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
    No; just noting the general disorganization. Now you raise it, however, HMG don't seem to have considered the implications of due legal process.
    They probably expected they'd be able to portray the Jolyons as trying to block a popular policy through the courts.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    If they are Protestant evangelicals rather than Anglicans they are certainly not part of the Apostolic and Catholic Church, Presbyterians and Baptists do not even have Bishops and reject the doctrine of apostolic succession through Bishops
    The Scotsman is mean, as we're all well aware
    And bony and blotchy and covered with hair
    He eats salted porridge, he works all the day
    And he hasn't got bishops to show him the way!
    Flanders and Swann - I can hear the tune!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
    No; just noting the general disorganization. Now you raise it, however, HMG don't seem to have considered the implications of due legal process.
    I think the whole point of the policy is to be able to pillory "looney left human rights lawyers" for as long as possible. More a diversion than a real policy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Apparently some Labour campaigners are concerned about piling up votes in the seats they already hold and failing to win the marginals they need to take control of the council.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    Big difference betwen crossing your fingers and saying it must fail to saying Ukraine were going to whup them.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Article on what happens if Alliance comes second (and most polling still puts them in third): https://www.northernslant.com/what-happens-if-alliance-comes-second/

    A very interesting article. I see the logic, as the Assembly is powersharing not adversarial.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
    It was on entering training IIRC - maybe they dropped out?

    There were some ugly threats IIRC from some republicans - that “foreigners shouldn’t get involved in policing”
    That Hansard thing is from 2007?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
    No; just noting the general disorganization. Now you raise it, however, HMG don't seem to have considered the implications of due legal process.
    I think the whole point of the policy is to be able to pillory "looney left human rights lawyers" for as long as possible. More a diversion than a real policy.
    Spent a lot on it, in that case. At least the RNLI don't seem to have to worry about being jailed for doing their job - although left in limbo for rather too long.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Scott_xP said:

    In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Boris didn't introduce the Freedom Pass when mayor of London.
    It was already being run/funded by the 33 London boroughs. It still is.
    His Government prevented older Londoners using the Freedom Pass before 930am (under a @tfl bailout) three months after the start of the pandemic.

    https://twitter.com/RossLydall/status/1521404205583450112
    So he...lied?
    Nope.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Pass

    Until January 2009 the pass was only valid on weekdays from 9:00

    The liar is the person claiming that he said he introduced the Freedom Pass, rather than the 24 hour availability of such.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    If they are Protestant evangelicals rather than Anglicans they are certainly not part of the Apostolic and Catholic Church, Presbyterians and Baptists do not even have Bishops and reject the doctrine of apostolic succession through Bishops
    The Scotsman is mean, as we're all well aware
    And bony and blotchy and covered with hair
    He eats salted porridge, he works all the day
    And he hasn't got bishops to show him the way!
    Flanders and Swann - I can hear the tune!
    Any day I can quote F&S is a good day.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
    Just caught that nice Mr Johnson being interviewed by Labour's Susanna Reid. He has Elsie's energy requirements covered. In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Is Susanna a great interviewer or was Boris just overwhelmed by Susanna's luscious legs? Phwoar, ding dong!
    The fact is that under the tories ordinary voters of all shapes and sizes are getting poorer. Not just slightly poorer, but significantly poorer. And not just slowly, but by the month.

    The penalties for this are going to be absolutely brutal, especially for the tories. Prosperity is meant to be a totem for them, whereas its less so for labour, who tend to stress community.

    The MPs are delusional and in dreamland. The other day one on the radio claimed they were the party of low taxation. That is demonstrably an outright lie. Taxes are at Corbynite levels Debt and spending, ditto. It's like telling someone black is white.

    The voters are cottoning on to this and it cannot continue. The tories, right now, are going out of business.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Heathener - I responded to your Woking post earlier:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419

    Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?

    I live in Hook Heath, hence my name.

    Very quickly:

    I reckon Heathlands is going LibDem.

    Pyrford looks good for the LibDems. It wasn't a comfortable hold last time.

    Byfleet and West Byfleet could be LibDem. Neil Willetts isn't standing again.


    p.s. curiously Betfair have now offered me a 100% cash out so if I'm not fancying this, I can get the bet back.
    My walking route goes through Hook Heath, so I'll be sure to wave. :smiley:

    I'm not that close to local politics, so I don't have a great feel for what will happen.
    LOL that was a huge and well-argued post of yours you referenced for an "I'm not that close to local politics, so I don't have a great feel for what will happen" comment!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Scott_xP said:

    In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Boris didn't introduce the Freedom Pass when mayor of London.
    It was already being run/funded by the 33 London boroughs. It still is.
    His Government prevented older Londoners using the Freedom Pass before 930am (under a @tfl bailout) three months after the start of the pandemic.

    https://twitter.com/RossLydall/status/1521404205583450112
    So he...lied?
    Yes, believe it or not, yes.

    Shocker isn't it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2022
    Re: today's US Senate Republican race in 2022 Ohio Primary, latest from PB's favorite & one other:

    The Trafalgar Group - 1,081 likely voters surveyed Apr 29 - May 1; 3.0% margin of error
    JD Vance 26%
    Matt Dolan 22%
    Josh Mandel 21%
    Mike Gibbons 13%
    Jane Timken 6%
    other 4%
    undecided 9%

    Emerson College - 885 likely voters surveyed Apr 28-29; 3.2% moa
    JD Vance 24%
    Matt Dolan 18%
    Josh Mandel 22%
    Mike Gibbons 14%
    Jane Timken 7%
    other 4%
    undecided 11%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio
  • malcolmg said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    Big difference betwen crossing your fingers and saying it must fail to saying Ukraine were going to whup them.
    Of course there's a big difference, but considering from what's in the public domain it seems like the UK and USA have been sharing a large amount of weaponry, as well as military training, other expertise, logistical support and intelligence . . . I think there's rather more than just a crossing of fingers involved. Don't you?

    If and when Putin fails it will be in no small part to the roles played by each of Zelenskyy, Johnson and Biden - as well as predecessors like Obama, May and Cameron too but I will exclude Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "US Supreme Court 'votes to overturn abortion rights in constitutional earthquake'
    Leaked draft ruling strikes down Roe v Wade and says decision was 'egregiously wrong from the start'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/03/roe-wade-supreme-court-votes-overthrow-abortion-rights/
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Apparently some Labour campaigners are concerned about piling up votes in the seats they already hold and failing to win the marginals they need to take control of the council.
    Some tory losses will be to the lib dems and a rag tag of independents, Residents Association etc right?

    The Residents are massive where I live and will almost certainly make gains at tory expense.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Surely Catholic Atheists are still classed as Catholics under the sectarian divide?

    I certainly wouldn't want to be branded as a Protestant - that's not the faith I turned my back on.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
    Are you saying they should ignore due legal process?
    They should anticipate it and respond robustly. With questions like So who is yer akshull client on whose behalf you are writing to me, you ambulance chasing vermin?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Apparently some Labour campaigners are concerned about piling up votes in the seats they already hold and failing to win the marginals they need to take control of the council.
    All of those "postal voters" need to change their address...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    Macron offered the job of PM to the socialist Valérie Rabault but she turned it down.

    https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/la-presidente-du-groupe-ps-a-l-assemblee-valerie-rabault-a-refuse-matignon_AN-202205030393.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    More suspicious fires in Russia, including the warehouse of a book publisher that had erased Ukraine from its works:


    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1521462101130330114?t=fH6fRWuNxCHhOONZuIV52Q&s=19

    And a military lorry park:

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521416166786404354?t=G4AWgk3T5Cv7tKvSS9TbRw&s=19
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
    Just caught that nice Mr Johnson being interviewed by Labour's Susanna Reid. He has Elsie's energy requirements covered. In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Is Susanna a great interviewer or was Boris just overwhelmed by Susanna's luscious legs? Phwoar, ding dong!
    The fact is that under the tories ordinary voters of all shapes and sizes are getting poorer. Not just slightly poorer, but significantly poorer. And not just slowly, but by the month.

    The penalties for this are going to be absolutely brutal, especially for the tories. Prosperity is meant to be a totem for them, whereas its less so for labour, who tend to stress community.

    The MPs are delusional and in dreamland. The other day one on the radio claimed they were the party of low taxation. That is demonstrably an outright lie. Taxes are at Corbynite levels Debt and spending, ditto. It's like telling someone black is white.

    The voters are cottoning on to this and it cannot continue. The tories, right now, are going out of business.
    Elsie's fuel bills 17 a month to 85 a month. That's your government killer right there
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Foxy said:

    More suspicious fires in Russia, including the warehouse of a book publisher that had erased Ukraine from its works:


    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1521462101130330114?t=fH6fRWuNxCHhOONZuIV52Q&s=19

    And a military lorry park:

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521416166786404354?t=G4AWgk3T5Cv7tKvSS9TbRw&s=19

    The strange thing is the lack of Russian state activity following these multiple sabotage efforts. I would have expected them to have uncovered either real or fake "cells" of "Ukrainian terrorists and 5th columnists" by now, but the official response seems to be to ignore them. Also no news coverage of successfully foiled attempts, unlike the fairly regular drop drip of equivalent stories in Ukraine.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    For what it's worth the Lake district from Windermere up to Grasmere has only Lib Dem posters but quite a few of them. Anyone know if that's a surprise or expected?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
    It was on entering training IIRC - maybe they dropped out?

    There were some ugly threats IIRC from some republicans - that “foreigners shouldn’t get involved in policing”
    Again, source? Esp. for quotation?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited May 2022
    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Heathener - I responded to your Woking post earlier:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419

    Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?

    I live in Hook Heath, hence my name.

    Very quickly:

    I reckon Heathlands is going LibDem.

    Pyrford looks good for the LibDems. It wasn't a comfortable hold last time.

    Byfleet and West Byfleet could be LibDem. Neil Willetts isn't standing again.


    p.s. curiously Betfair have now offered me a 100% cash out so if I'm not fancying this, I can get the bet back.
    My walking route goes through Hook Heath, so I'll be sure to wave. :smiley:

    I'm not that close to local politics, so I don't have a great feel for what will happen.
    LOL that was a huge and well-argued post of yours you referenced for an "I'm not that close to local politics, so I don't have a great feel for what will happen" comment!
    :smile:

    Not too difficult to work out what the bet comes down to, but I have little idea as to how the views of the good people of Heathlands and Pyrford have changed in the last year.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tory's on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Has he mentioned the 24 hour bus pass?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    He didn't deliver the speech as briefed
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    IshmaelZ said:

    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
    Just caught that nice Mr Johnson being interviewed by Labour's Susanna Reid. He has Elsie's energy requirements covered. In response to Susanna commenting that Elsie keeps herself warm by spending all day on the bus, he explains to Red Susanna that "Just to remind you that the 24 hour freedom bus pass was something that I introduced".

    Is Susanna a great interviewer or was Boris just overwhelmed by Susanna's luscious legs? Phwoar, ding dong!
    The fact is that under the tories ordinary voters of all shapes and sizes are getting poorer. Not just slightly poorer, but significantly poorer. And not just slowly, but by the month.

    The penalties for this are going to be absolutely brutal, especially for the tories. Prosperity is meant to be a totem for them, whereas its less so for labour, who tend to stress community.

    The MPs are delusional and in dreamland. The other day one on the radio claimed they were the party of low taxation. That is demonstrably an outright lie. Taxes are at Corbynite levels Debt and spending, ditto. It's like telling someone black is white.

    The voters are cottoning on to this and it cannot continue. The tories, right now, are going out of business.
    Elsie's fuel bills 17 a month to 85 a month. That's your government killer right there
    Agreed, but also no plan for them to get cheaper. No 'If Elsie can make it through another six months, her fuel bill will halve'.

    Simply 'get used to it'. That's the killer. Trying to get away with this being the new normal. Lethal.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    MISTY said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Apparently some Labour campaigners are concerned about piling up votes in the seats they already hold and failing to win the marginals they need to take control of the council.
    Some tory losses will be to the lib dems and a rag tag of independents, Residents Association etc right?

    The Residents are massive where I live and will almost certainly make gains at tory expense.
    March of the Nimbys!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Roger said:

    For what it's worth the Lake district from Windermere up to Grasmere has only Lib Dem posters but quite a few of them. Anyone know if that's a surprise or expected?

    I would say it was expected as South lakeland was and still is Libdem a la Timmy Farron
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,257

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
    It was on entering training IIRC - maybe they dropped out?

    There were some ugly threats IIRC from some republicans - that “foreigners shouldn’t get involved in policing”
    Again, source? Esp. for quotation?
    Don’t have it to hand - sorry

    Back in the good old days of the Portadown News, it was….
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Roger said:

    For what it's worth the Lake district from Windermere up to Grasmere has only Lib Dem posters but quite a few of them. Anyone know if that's a surprise or expected?

    On my way back from the Peak District on Sunday I passed through suburban Derby. Only Green Party posters visible. Not a vegan sausage of the others.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I wonder how big Big G’s curries were in April 2021?

    I am calling on Llandudno Constabulary to investigate.
  • The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml

    Disgraceful.

    The less said by that kiddy fiddler institution the better it seems.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sadiq Khan, “London stands with women across the United States today”.

    What an utter twit.
    Shouldn’t he be campaigning in Wandsworth or something? Perhaps not, from Labour’s perspective!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    OT. Great play on BBC Radio 4 about Clive Ponting and the Sinking of the Belgrano. Even so many years later you still feel like cheering the Jury's verdict.Thatcher might be even more dislikable than Johnson

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0016x8x
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,055
    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    That was adopted at the First Council of Constantinople in 381 and there are a few Christian groups that reject even that. I think some of the whackier modern groups coming out of Protestantism would reject it, like the Jehovah's Witnesses...?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    On the "Alliance Party finishing second" discussion: 1, only one poll has them tied for second; 2, NI polls have a poor accuracy record, 3. Alliance often gets a halo-effect overstatement in polls, 4. under STV what matters for second place is number of seats, and those polls point to a lot of TUV transfers that will help elect Unionist MLAs, including DUP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Anecdote alert:

    Just got back from the hairdressers. Usually my hairdresser will ask a few questions as I'm in the chair - see the game last night, how's work that sort of thing - but this time he went into a quick speech about the war. I can't pretend to have remembered it word for word but it was something like this:

    'The world's gone mad since you were last here. This war its horrendous. That bloke needs dealing with. Did you see how he talked to that bloke who's head of the KGB? Like he was a child. Now he's saying he's going to put a bomb in the Irish Sea that will destroy Britain. Do me a favour. He's like that Saddam Hussein 30 years ago saying he's going to unleash hell. All talk. If it was the Americans I'd believe it. But he's giving his troops 20 year old dog food. I'd bet their nukes are just rusty old junk. Like all the old tanks they've got. I just saw this couple dancing at their wedding and thought it's strange how the guy just lifts her up. It's because she's lost her legs and some fingers. Terrible what the people there are going through (he was getting quite emotional by this point) and here we are moaning about our gas bills going up. Nothing compared to what they are going through.'

    I don't think he is entirely typical. Plenty of people I know aren't really tuned into the war because it's so depressing and terrible or they are simply in their own bubble.

    No mention from him about how we would vote on Thursday.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    More suspicious fires in Russia, including the warehouse of a book publisher that had erased Ukraine from its works:


    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1521462101130330114?t=fH6fRWuNxCHhOONZuIV52Q&s=19

    And a military lorry park:

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521416166786404354?t=G4AWgk3T5Cv7tKvSS9TbRw&s=19

    The strange thing is the lack of Russian state activity following these multiple sabotage efforts. I would have expected them to have uncovered either real or fake "cells" of "Ukrainian terrorists and 5th columnists" by now, but the official response seems to be to ignore them. Also no news coverage of successfully foiled attempts, unlike the fairly regular drop drip of equivalent stories in Ukraine.
    Because there are at least 2m Ukrainians in Russia, who are surely involved in this. Pointing it out to Russians risks civil strife within Russia, and would also make Russians wonder why Ukrainians are so angry, instead of grateful?

    It would also be highly demoralising for Russia to realise it has this serious, intractable problem in its own borders. Which is only going to get worse as the war grinds on

    The fire in a book warehouse is exactly what you’d expect from “amateur” Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia. Anyone can set a fire. Anonymous, small, stealthy, easy to do, yet it all adds to the slow erosion of the Russian economy

    Those generals need to oust Putin ASAP
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989

    Sadiq Khan, “London stands with women across the United States today”.

    What an utter twit.
    Shouldn’t he be campaigning in Wandsworth or something? Perhaps not, from Labour’s perspective!

    The Twitter obsession today with leaked news of a US supreme court ruling that has no impact on the UK whatsoever is weird.

    I get this is a really important issue for Americans, but it isn't relevant for us. Twitter was somewhat quieter over decades of restrictions on abortion in Northern Ireland or the pretty disgraceful laws the Polish far-right government have enacted recently.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    edited May 2022

    The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml

    Disgraceful.

    The less said by that kiddy fiddler institution the better it seems.
    A generalisation that would embarrass the Daily Mail
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Truthfully the cost of living crisis and the lack of empathy should see the conservatives have a very bad night

    As I have posted for some time I expect a stellar lib dem performance but not sure just how well labour will do but they will gain seats
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited May 2022

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Do you have a source?

    Reason I ask, is I googled and this is what I found at first blush, via Hansard:

    PSNI: Catholic Recruits
    Volume 456: debated on Wednesday 7 February 2007

    Mr. Hollobone - 10. To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland how many Catholic recruits from eastern Europe have been recruited into the Police Service of Northern Ireland. (118060)

    Paul Goggins - I am advised that currently there are no Roman Catholic recruits from eastern Europe in the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

    Not saying this is final word, but what IS your source?
    It was on entering training IIRC - maybe they dropped out?

    There were some ugly threats IIRC from some republicans - that “foreigners shouldn’t get involved in policing”
    Again, source? Esp. for quotation?
    Don’t have it to hand - sorry

    Back in the good old days of the Portadown News, it was….
    FOI request from 2011 (I presume, from request number) has 5 officers of Polish nationality (another from 2008 states 0, in line with Hansard)
    https://www.psni.police.uk/globalassets/advice--information/our-publications/disclosure-logs/2011/human-resources/nationality_police.pdf

    Edit: FOI reply for 2008 https://www.psni.police.uk/globalassets/advice--information/our-publications/disclosure-logs/2008/human-resources/polish_nationals_who_are_psni_officers.pdf
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    More suspicious fires in Russia, including the warehouse of a book publisher that had erased Ukraine from its works:


    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1521462101130330114?t=fH6fRWuNxCHhOONZuIV52Q&s=19

    And a military lorry park:

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521416166786404354?t=G4AWgk3T5Cv7tKvSS9TbRw&s=19

    The strange thing is the lack of Russian state activity following these multiple sabotage efforts. I would have expected them to have uncovered either real or fake "cells" of "Ukrainian terrorists and 5th columnists" by now, but the official response seems to be to ignore them. Also no news coverage of successfully foiled attempts, unlike the fairly regular drop drip of equivalent stories in Ukraine.
    Because there are at least 2m Ukrainians in Russia, who are surely involved in this. Pointing it out to Russians risks civil strife within Russia, and would also make Russians wonder why Ukrainians are so angry, instead of grateful?

    It would also be highly demoralising for Russia to realise it has this serious, intractable problem in its own borders. Which is only going to get worse as the war grinds on

    The fire in a book warehouse is exactly what you’d expect from “amateur” Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia. Anyone can set a fire. Anonymous, small, stealthy, easy to do, yet it all adds to the slow erosion of the Russian economy

    Those generals need to oust Putin ASAP
    I must say, of all the news stories coming out of the war, these little vignettes of successful sabotage in Russia and Belarus are some of the most heart warming.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,055
    EPG said:

    On the "Alliance Party finishing second" discussion: 1, only one poll has them tied for second; 2, NI polls have a poor accuracy record, 3. Alliance often gets a halo-effect overstatement in polls, 4. under STV what matters for second place is number of seats, and those polls point to a lot of TUV transfers that will help elect Unionist MLAs, including DUP.

    Indeed. These discussions are hypotheticals, what might happen IF Alliance came second. They probably won't.

    But they might. Three polls have had them tied for second with the DUP, not just one, but the other two were from last year. And, yes, the DUP should do well from TUV transfers, but Alliance are very transfer friendly too.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Given the timing of the speech only those in the Bozo cult will believe it’s anything but a desperate attempt to sway a few voters on Thursday .

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MISTY said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Apparently some Labour campaigners are concerned about piling up votes in the seats they already hold and failing to win the marginals they need to take control of the council.
    Some tory losses will be to the lib dems and a rag tag of independents, Residents Association etc right?

    The Residents are massive where I live and will almost certainly make gains at tory expense.
    I recall that the Residents already hold one of the seats in Wandsworth, West Hill I think.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    I wonder how big Big G’s curries were in April 2021?

    I am calling on Llandudno Constabulary to investigate.

    You really need to grow up and cut out the personal attacks
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Nigelb said:

    "Why not peace with Hitler?"
    "Arm Britain and prolong war"
    "Lend-lease, lose-lives"
    "Europe for Europeans, America for Americans"
    "Stay out of South America, Europe, War"

    Videotape of an anti-war march in NYC July 7, 1941. Pretty much the same arguments as the ones we hear today

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521477751210971140

    Well they did stay out of it until the Japanese attacked them, so clearly the march worked.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    Aren't christians all part of the one, holy, apostolic, catholic church, just not necessarily the Roman Catholic
    That was adopted at the First Council of Constantinople in 381 and there are a few Christian groups that reject even that. I think some of the whackier modern groups coming out of Protestantism would reject it, like the Jehovah's Witnesses...?
    My church thinks that primitive Christianity is the way to go. Anything from Constantine onwards is suspectly worldly.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .
    nico679 said:

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Given the timing of the speech only those in the Bozo cult will believe it’s anything but a desperate attempt to sway a few voters on Thursday .

    * calls Boris "Bozo"
    * accuses others of being in a cult
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Roger said:

    For what it's worth the Lake district from Windermere up to Grasmere has only Lib Dem posters but quite a few of them. Anyone know if that's a surprise or expected?

    Buggering up the beauty of the landscape. And them the party of NIMBYs!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    Specifically, what are the unanswered questions relating to the Labour 'event'?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    More suspicious fires in Russia, including the warehouse of a book publisher that had erased Ukraine from its works:


    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1521462101130330114?t=fH6fRWuNxCHhOONZuIV52Q&s=19

    And a military lorry park:

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521416166786404354?t=G4AWgk3T5Cv7tKvSS9TbRw&s=19

    The strange thing is the lack of Russian state activity following these multiple sabotage efforts. I would have expected them to have uncovered either real or fake "cells" of "Ukrainian terrorists and 5th columnists" by now, but the official response seems to be to ignore them. Also no news coverage of successfully foiled attempts, unlike the fairly regular drop drip of equivalent stories in Ukraine.
    Because there are at least 2m Ukrainians in Russia, who are surely involved in this. Pointing it out to Russians risks civil strife within Russia, and would also make Russians wonder why Ukrainians are so angry, instead of grateful?

    It would also be highly demoralising for Russia to realise it has this serious, intractable problem in its own borders. Which is only going to get worse as the war grinds on

    The fire in a book warehouse is exactly what you’d expect from “amateur” Ukrainian saboteurs inside Russia. Anyone can set a fire. Anonymous, small, stealthy, easy to do, yet it all adds to the slow erosion of the Russian economy

    Those generals need to oust Putin ASAP
    I must say, of all the news stories coming out of the war, these little vignettes of successful sabotage in Russia and Belarus are some of the most heart warming.
    They are

    This guy tries to document them all, but there are many. One of my favourites here. All those horrible cars with the Nazi Z sign? 7 got torched in Moscow. Good

    “19. April 28, Z marked cars on fire in Moscow”


    https://twitter.com/harladf/status/1519807335774011393?s=21&t=n_CugdQlWE9HWntb0dcETA
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 2022

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    I’m just mystified why you’re willing to shred the last remnants of your PB credibility on “Richard Holden’s legitimate questions”.

    Only a professional troll would continue a ramping campaign in the manner you have.

    And you still haven’t explained how big your curries were. I have legitimate questions over your tikka masala, and I’m THIS close to writing a letter to law enforcement in Betsw y Coed.

    And when they fail to reply, I will be on here, every morning, claiming that while we must wait for deliberations from Betsw y Coed, that there are still questions to be answered!
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    Just imagine if BJ had been pictured having a beer in a Tory Constituency office in April 2021, I imagine the response on here would have been vastly different, especially if he lied/ genuine error about Dominic Raab being there.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml

    Disgraceful.

    The less said by that kiddy fiddler institution the better it seems.
    I don't agree with what he said, but calling the Pope a "kiddy fiddler" just demonstrates to us all (if we needed further evidence) what an ignorant unpleasant and unthinking right wing bigot you are.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Roger said:

    The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml

    Disgraceful.

    The less said by that kiddy fiddler institution the better it seems.
    A generalisation that would embarrass the Daily Mail
    Pope Francis has also condemned Putin and the invasion. It's remarkably brave of him to make the statement above.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022

    The Pope criticises "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" and suspects the invasion was "facilitated by the West’s attitude". He also questions whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine.

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-11ec-84d1-341c28840c78.shtml

    Disgraceful.

    The less said by that kiddy fiddler institution the better it seems.
    I don't agree with what he said, but calling the Pope a "kiddy fiddler" just demonstrates to us all (if we needed further evidence) what an ignorant unpleasant and unthinking right wing bigot you are.
    Oh dear. We can all read what BR said, and he did not call the Pope a "kiddy fiddler".
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Applicant said:

    .

    nico679 said:

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Given the timing of the speech only those in the Bozo cult will believe it’s anything but a desperate attempt to sway a few voters on Thursday .

    * calls Boris "Bozo"
    * accuses others of being in a cult
    I am not sure there are enough people who are genuine supporters/apologists for The Clown for it to be classified as a cult.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Pro_Rata said:

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    Specifically, what are the unanswered questions relating to the Labour 'event'?
    Big G doesn’t know.
    But he does know, because they come from the Tory MP Richard Holden, that they are “legitimate”.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    .

    nico679 said:

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Given the timing of the speech only those in the Bozo cult will believe it’s anything but a desperate attempt to sway a few voters on Thursday .

    * calls Boris "Bozo"
    * accuses others of being in a cult
    So what cult am I supposed to be in then ?the anti Bozo cult!

    The Bozo cult , call it what you like are those who refuse to see what’s in front of their eyes . He’s a pathological liar without a single principle and not fit to be PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Pro_Rata said:

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    Specifically, what are the unanswered questions relating to the Labour 'event'?
    Skys report from this morning is here

    https://news.sky.com/story/durham-police-should-reopen-investigation-into-sir-keir-starmer-lockdown-beers-footage-minister-says-12604490
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    nico679 said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    nico679 said:

    I know I am always on Johnson's case, and for that I apologise.

    I am currently listening to today's Boris Churchill Ukraine speech. Will it benefit the Tories on Thursday?

    Well is it me or are there shades of Peppa Pig in this speech? Not the sentiment (which I agree with) but the presentation, the long, long pauses and the odd analogies. Did he forget his notes?

    Given the timing of the speech only those in the Bozo cult will believe it’s anything but a desperate attempt to sway a few voters on Thursday .

    * calls Boris "Bozo"
    * accuses others of being in a cult
    So what cult am I supposed to be in then ? The Bozo cult , call it what you like are those who refuse to see what’s in front of their eyes . He’s a pathological liar without a single principle and not fit to be PM.
    Let’s be charitable and assume Applicant just prefers FLSOJ.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Wake up; scroll through thread.
    Big G is STILL trying to ramp the non story about Keir’s curry.

    He should be ashamed of himself.

    I have not raised it since this morning and reporting on news media interviews and reports is the nature of this forum

    You have actually reintroduced it when the narrative has moved on until the media or Durham Police respond to Richard Holden

    Trying to shame a poster no matter how much you disagree is uncalled for
    I was referring to this morning’s thread.
    (I catch up hours later).

    You are transparently ramping for Johnson’s smears, and it is disgraceful.
    Utter and complete nonsense

    Richard Holden the local mp is asking legitimate questions and awaiting a response to his letter from Durham Police

    Maybe less personal and more address the legitimate questions posed by Kay Burley on Sky this morning
    As an MP he has the absolute right to ask these questions. Its just that he is doing so because he doesn't like the answer given when the other people asked, and he won't like the answer when eventually he receives it.

    There is no scandal here, no great conspiracy that Richard Holden is going to force into the open. Just a desperation amongst the Tories to bring the whole of politics down to their level to reduce Tory losses on Thursday just enough to try and cling onto Boris. Thats all it is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Sadiq Khan, “London stands with women across the United States today”.

    What an utter twit.
    Shouldn’t he be campaigning in Wandsworth or something? Perhaps not, from Labour’s perspective!

    The Twitter obsession today with leaked news of a US supreme court ruling that has no impact on the UK whatsoever is weird.

    I get this is a really important issue for Americans, but it isn't relevant for us. Twitter was somewhat quieter over decades of restrictions on abortion in Northern Ireland or the pretty disgraceful laws the Polish far-right government have enacted recently.
    It is important to us, however, as it might change US politics completely. Until this moment Republicans were cantering to victory in the mid terms and looked set fair, even with Trump, for 2024

    A lot of neutral waverers will look at this leaked draft decision and go Democrat in revulsion. It’s a stupid piece of US conservative self harm (tho I accept that for many it involves sincerely held beliefs)

    Thank God abortion is not politicised this way in the UK. America also suffers the other extreme: people who practically encourage abortion at all times and have no trouble with abortion on the cusp of birth
This discussion has been closed.