Almost since I began running PB in 2004 the two councils that have dominated discussion of the London local elections have been Wandsworth and Westminster and as can be seen punters on the Smarkets exchange think that LAB will take the former but fail in the latter.
Comments
I should caveat my over-performance suggestion with the note that I don't think it will translate into councillors, just that they will outperform their current polling.
But Wandsworth council is a flagship of Conservative run council, services and value for money - if they lose it because Oliver Dowden sent ministers out to talk Partygate “big currygate” Westminster bubble rubbish instead of a proper election campaign, that would be the crime worth investigating!
It merely confirms what the history books will already say, Boris Johnson surrounded himself with cheerleaders, and they were rubbish, not up to the job.
You know what I am saying is true here. More tha a touch of lions lead by donkeys in the Tory party at the moment.
I disagree, the result could significantly contribute to Johnson's speedy demise.
The NI Assembly elections will make little difference unless the DUP agree to rejoin the executive or the Alliance come out for a border poll which they currently oppose, both of which would happen only after the results are known
But I think they'll do well in terms of councillor gains - probably more so than in vote share. They've got to grips with FPTP over the past few years and made good gains in 2019 and 2021 on the "pick a ward and win it" basis. They didn't really get it to the same extent in 2018, so 2022 is the last year of low hanging fruit for them - next year, they have to balance defence and attack in a way that is trickier to manage.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1521462185939120128
German Federal Government decided to transfer 7 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 howitzers from the Bundeswehr warehouses- Welt sources
Decision taken contrary to position of 🇩🇪 military command, who warned only 40 of available 119 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 Rbattleready
“ There will be a lot of post-election examination of the voting in councils that form part of what has become known as the Northern Wall seats where the Corbyn’-led Labour party did very badly at GE2019.”.
Yes! Can’t wait. I think those of us on PB can nail this down into agreement next weekend.
HY says if Labour take all 9 seats Tory defending in Swindon Labour take council - good starting point, but are some of those seats where Labour have never made any impression in true blue ward not even under Blair? So even if they fail at first glance, we still should be able to agree how good an effort it was in the missed seats based on history, shouldn’t we?
Same with Nuneaton, and other red wall places, same with the London councils Tory’s defending.
“ From all we can gather it looks as though the Tories will have a bad night simply because existing supporters appear to be reluctant to turn out to vote. “
Where’s the qualitative data On this? Are PBers canvassing proving or disproving this statement from their own experience?
https://mobile.twitter.com/Leshchenkos/status/1521457919883100161
Here in Padova it is warm and sunny at the end of a long lunch
The Tories are going to copy the Labour oil windfall tax.
About a third of the PB Tories who say it is a terrible idea now will say it is genius when this is implemented.
Two thirds will claim credit for it by the next GE.
The locals aren't without interest or importance though. I'm particularly interested to see what happens in boroughs/cities where there's been controversy over cycleways and Low Traffic Neighbourhood-type schemes... which in some ways are a proxy for wider splits in society post-Brexit. The debate over these on Twitter in local newspaper comment sections has been (unsurprisingly) more heat than light, but the ballot box should give a more accurate steer as to where the majority opinion actually is. I genuinely don't know and will be very interested to find out.
There is one very popular independent in Wandsworth who will be re-elected, but other than him, Labour/Tory have locked out other parties for decades in both areas. It's not inconceivable Lib Dems could pick up one or two councillors - but it's not massively likely either and, even if they do, it doesn't mean it'll move to NOC. Both Councils have an even number of seats, so a draw is conceivable. But NOC is a real outside shot in either case - a possible outcome, but there are many more majority control outcomes simply because these are very much two party contests.
Who cares about Wandsworth?
I recall purist Unionists boosters have sometimes chosen to define the Alliance as Unionists to bolster appearances; it would be grimly entertaining to see how they'd react in such a scenario.
But, frankly, the local elections matter rather a lot for Tory MPs wavering about VONCing the PM. So much of Johnson's future rests on "you may not like me... but I'm a winner" that winning and losing in these sort of "who empties the bins?" contests matters more than it otherwise would.
Michelle O'Neill as First Minister, despite her refusal to recognise NI as a legitimate entity, with Naomi Long as Deputy First Minister, despite her being largely neutral on Irish nationalism would be... interesting.
"History, unfortunately, holds some tragic examples of cooperation between Jews and the Nazis."
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521429767282733058
RwandaThe number of migrants crossing the English Channel so far this year is more than three times higher than it was at the same time in 2021 https://trib.al/DbijtgZ
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/the-queens-reach-for-the-moon-ruled-out-of-derby-date-in-platinum-jubilee-blow/553955
Greens may have more gains because they start from a miniscule base but on total votes could be outdone 3 -1.
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1521267491258916871?s=20&t=TJayhDM2TPWL82rU2c8KkA
If they even do as well as the latest poll predicts (18%, neck and neck with the largest Unionist party), there will be pressure to change the rules of the Assembly.
Paul Singh
@Paul1Singh
·
2h
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.
Unless Labour get a 10%+ lead on NEV or the Tory voteshare falls below 30% as in the 2019 locals, Johnson will likely survive
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220503.html
which predicts that Labour will gain Westminster. They might be wrong, but it makes the betting price look like value.
It also predicts a collapse in Green and Independent councillors. The former, as pointed out on the last thread, might be due to a strong performance last time, but in general I think polls understimate minor parties and especially independents (who says "I'm gonna vote independent" to an opinion poll?).
"When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment."
APNI and DUP (for different reasons) both support removing Designations and replacing them with a requirement for a supermajority. I presume Westminster legislation would be required for any changes.
Ministries in the Assembly executive are determined by how many seats a party has won using d’Hondt, so Designation doesn’t come into it. If an Other party does well, it will be offered ministries. So, Alliance could miss out on Deputy First Minister, but they’ll still have power through ministers (unless they opt to go into opposition).
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/
Nice line at the end.
'When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment.' Well certainly not if they're busy preparing a coup!
We have the 9th May parade next Monday and the rumour is that Putin will be going under the knife and handing over control for a few days at some point. Could that be the moment to watch out for?
Post Brexit however there is more of a case for it being a good result for the Tories, Kensington is the 2nd seat on the Labour target list for the next general election and Chelsea and Fulham is 37th on the LD target list
Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483899430378127365
Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f
*** BETTING POST ***
You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.
I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.
I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714
https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking
https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking
Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.
The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.
The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.
So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
1 = ought to fail (desire)
2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)
YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
Saying he will fail and saying he must fail are completely different.
Why do we have to waste so much of our lives explaining Boris Johnson's lies?
Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419
Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?
NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.
The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.
Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
Will the candidate he endorses win the Ohio Republican Primary?
Don't google it...
April 11 article by Soldatov who is quoted by cityam as thinking coup on cards. Back then he was saying the siloviki were not enough of a force on their own, would need regional governors to come in. No sign of that.
It will be interesting for future historians to study this time, that's for certain, but I expect they will find that the UK, USA and Ukraine were sharing some very detailed intelligence, weaponry and expertise both before and during the war.
https://i.redd.it/fwak6p2sr6x81.jpg
My latest for @theipaper on *that* @GMB interview.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-gmb-interview-cost-of-living-crisis-tories-catastrophe-1608078
Key paragraph here (TLDR – Alliance could designate as unionist for convenience and have form in that regard, although have denied they would ever do it again)
They could decide to designate as unionist in order to get the job. There is some precedent for this as some Alliance MLAs did it briefly in 2001 to vote in a government and protect the Good Friday Agreement. They undesignated themselves soon after and the party has said that its MLAs won’t do anything similar again.