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LAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 8 in General
imageLAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster – politicalbetting.com

Almost since I began running PB in 2004 the two councils that have dominated discussion of the London local elections have been Wandsworth and Westminster and as can be seen punters on the Smarkets exchange think that LAB will take the former but fail in the latter.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,391
    First, perchance?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507
    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,391
    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    Been boiling your greens too long, Mr Adams?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507

    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    Been boiling your greens too long, Mr Adams?
    They're not done until the water is green and they are grey.

    I should caveat my over-performance suggestion with the note that I don't think it will translate into councillors, just that they will outperform their current polling.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    I don’t know why Labour continues with this line that it doesn’t matter and there is nothing to see here. If there was truly nothing, you think they would have a better argument. It’s clear from yours - who is not a Tory-at-any-cost voter - plus arguably the Best PM polling that the voters are sceptical of Labour’s stance. Blaming it on the machinations of the Daily Mail is a lazy argument.
    Mudslinging. Dirty tricks. Negative campaigning.

    It’s a fact in absence of any new significant evidence since last investigated, The Tories merely doing a throw spaghetti at the wall see what sticks. What significant new evidence has emerged that warrants a new or reopened investigation? The Tories and mail have brought nothing forward, they merely hoping the police could find some, but that is not how the process works, not how justice works.

    The killer fact, unlike when the Tories partied during lockdown in Westminster, at this particular time of Starmer’s working meal, the rules were you could do a working meal in office. Unless Tories or friends in media, or anyone in public such as caterer who delivered a feast, comes forward with evidence it was different than the first investigation concluded, then it quite rightly remains closed. Simples.
    With most workplaces, if you have alcohol during work time - especially during work time - it’s a sackable offence.

    Anyway, take it you believe the “it was a honest mistake we forgot about Rayner” line. Given that, I’m sure you will be generous if BJ trots out the same line.
    I’m not getting at you personally, or Big G or anyone else pushing this CCHQ line at heart of their election campaign. Twitter sphere and blogosphere is perfect place to ramp this speculation, if you wish to waste your credibility on it. Indeed, when Tory’s and Mail claimed they had caterer who delivered 30 curry’s very late in evening, there was a story of Labour lying about their party so, I asked the questions here myself! Turned out Tories and mail were the ones lying about that, no such “big curry”.

    But Wandsworth council is a flagship of Conservative run council, services and value for money - if they lose it because Oliver Dowden sent ministers out to talk Partygate “big currygate” Westminster bubble rubbish instead of a proper election campaign, that would be the crime worth investigating!

    It merely confirms what the history books will already say, Boris Johnson surrounded himself with cheerleaders, and they were rubbish, not up to the job.

    You know what I am saying is true here. More tha a touch of lions lead by donkeys in the Tory party at the moment.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,607

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.

    Totally agree. Unfortunately the parochialism of the GB (London/Salford) media means that it's the one that will get the least comment and attention sadly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596

    First, perchance?

    Intelligent design, not chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 552

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.


    I disagree, the result could significantly contribute to Johnson's speedy demise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.

    They will in the local area.

    The NI Assembly elections will make little difference unless the DUP agree to rejoin the executive or the Alliance come out for a border poll which they currently oppose, both of which would happen only after the results are known
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    mwadams said:

    I think the Greens could have a good night. I know everyone always predicts a Green overperformance. But there seems to be something in the water.

    Been boiling your greens too long, Mr Adams?
    They're not done until the water is green and they are grey.

    I should caveat my over-performance suggestion with the note that I don't think it will translate into councillors, just that they will outperform their current polling.
    They will certainly outperform national polling, but that isn't terribly new with the Greens (or Lib Dems) - they do pick up local election votes that don't translate into General Election votes or into national polling.

    But I think they'll do well in terms of councillor gains - probably more so than in vote share. They've got to grips with FPTP over the past few years and made good gains in 2019 and 2021 on the "pick a ward and win it" basis. They didn't really get it to the same extent in 2018, so 2022 is the last year of low hanging fruit for them - next year, they have to balance defence and attack in a way that is trickier to manage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    Interesting on both counts.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1521462185939120128
    German Federal Government decided to transfer 7 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 howitzers from the Bundeswehr warehouses- Welt sources

    Decision taken contrary to position of 🇩🇪 military command, who warned only 40 of available 119 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 Rbattleready
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    On topic. Surely in the betting there, NOC should be higher as a greater chance happening than this?

    “ There will be a lot of post-election examination of the voting in councils that form part of what has become known as the Northern Wall seats where the Corbyn’-led Labour party did very badly at GE2019.”.

    Yes! Can’t wait. I think those of us on PB can nail this down into agreement next weekend.

    HY says if Labour take all 9 seats Tory defending in Swindon Labour take council - good starting point, but are some of those seats where Labour have never made any impression in true blue ward not even under Blair? So even if they fail at first glance, we still should be able to agree how good an effort it was in the missed seats based on history, shouldn’t we?

    Same with Nuneaton, and other red wall places, same with the London councils Tory’s defending.

    “ From all we can gather it looks as though the Tories will have a bad night simply because existing supporters appear to be reluctant to turn out to vote. “

    Where’s the qualitative data On this? Are PBers canvassing proving or disproving this statement from their own experience?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    Meanwhile in France the Greens have submitted to Mélenchon and will field Assembly candidates in his alliance. Uniting the two strongest left parties tactically guarantees them supremacy on the left of Macron, but strategically they have committed to explicit conflict with the EU, which the president's allies will surely milk as a retreat from their image in the Europe Écologie era.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    An unworthy thought, I know, but as it's Boris addressing them, I couldn't shake the idea of them protecting their wallets...
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Leshchenkos/status/1521457919883100161
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    Good to see that election fever is finally running strong in the UK...
    Here in Padova it is warm and sunny at the end of a long lunch
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.

    I certainly wouldn't disagree that Stormont is really significant.

    The locals aren't without interest or importance though. I'm particularly interested to see what happens in boroughs/cities where there's been controversy over cycleways and Low Traffic Neighbourhood-type schemes... which in some ways are a proxy for wider splits in society post-Brexit. The debate over these on Twitter in local newspaper comment sections has been (unsurprisingly) more heat than light, but the ballot box should give a more accurate steer as to where the majority opinion actually is. I genuinely don't know and will be very interested to find out.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466
    IanB2 said:

    Good to see that election fever is finally running strong in the UK...
    Here in Padova it is warm and sunny at the end of a long lunch

    As we have no locals in my town it all feels very quiet. A lot of Tory posters on the way to the west country over the weekend. I'm not sure that the farmers have all turned yet...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999

    Am I the only one who gets confused between Natalie Bennett (Israeli leader) and Naftali Bennett (Green party leader)?

    It beats getting confused among Natalie Bennett, Leanne Wood and presumably Natalie Wood.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637

    On topic. Surely in the betting there, NOC should be higher as a greater chance happening than this?

    “ There will be a lot of post-election examination of the voting in councils that form part of what has become known as the Northern Wall seats where the Corbyn’-led Labour party did very badly at GE2019.”.

    Yes! Can’t wait. I think those of us on PB can nail this down into agreement next weekend.

    HY says if Labour take all 9 seats Tory defending in Swindon Labour take council - good starting point, but are some of those seats where Labour have never made any impression in true blue ward not even under Blair? So even if they fail at first glance, we still should be able to agree how good an effort it was in the missed seats based on history, shouldn’t we?

    Same with Nuneaton, and other red wall places, same with the London councils Tory’s defending.

    “ From all we can gather it looks as though the Tories will have a bad night simply because existing supporters appear to be reluctant to turn out to vote. “

    Where’s the qualitative data On this? Are PBers canvassing proving or disproving this statement from their own experience?

    I think the NOC betting is probably about right.

    There is one very popular independent in Wandsworth who will be re-elected, but other than him, Labour/Tory have locked out other parties for decades in both areas. It's not inconceivable Lib Dems could pick up one or two councillors - but it's not massively likely either and, even if they do, it doesn't mean it'll move to NOC. Both Councils have an even number of seats, so a draw is conceivable. But NOC is a real outside shot in either case - a possible outcome, but there are many more majority control outcomes simply because these are very much two party contests.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596

    Predictions.

    The Tories are going to copy the Labour oil windfall tax.
    About a third of the PB Tories who say it is a terrible idea now will say it is genius when this is implemented.
    Two thirds will claim credit for it by the next GE.

    When you need money, as the Treasury desperately does, you tax what's there to be taxed. And whatever BP's headline figures, the cash flow is undeniable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Agreed that the big story will be Stormont.

    Who cares about Wandsworth?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027
    edited May 3
    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    Might they do it again in the event of second place?

    I recall purist Unionists boosters have sometimes chosen to define the Alliance as Unionists to bolster appearances; it would be grimly entertaining to see how they'd react in such a scenario.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878
    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637
    Stormont is important in terms of where Northern Ireland goes from here, and of course that's more important than who collects the bins in Wandsworth and Wigan.

    But, frankly, the local elections matter rather a lot for Tory MPs wavering about VONCing the PM. So much of Johnson's future rests on "you may not like me... but I'm a winner" that winning and losing in these sort of "who empties the bins?" contests matters more than it otherwise would.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Agreed that the big story will be Stormont.

    Who cares about Wandsworth?

    People who live in Wandsworth. Quite a few national journalists, I would imagine...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Do the Alliance support a border poll? Someone upthread says they oppose it which makes them de facto unionist I guess (albeit a very mild version of unionism).

    Michelle O'Neill as First Minister, despite her refusal to recognise NI as a legitimate entity, with Naomi Long as Deputy First Minister, despite her being largely neutral on Irish nationalism would be... interesting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,575
    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Tories lose Barnet. Fabricant caught out by a gust of wind?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    Might they do it again in the event of second place?

    I recall purist Unionists boosters have sometimes chosen to define the Alliance as Unionists to bolster appearances; it would be grimly entertaining to see how they'd react in such a scenario.
    Indeed. I suspect the Alliance have at times been cast by said boosters as neutral unionist protestants, to go alongside the catholic unionist protestants, muslim unionist protestants and atheist nationalist unionist protestants to make up the unionist protestant numbers.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350

    Stormont is important in terms of where Northern Ireland goes from here, and of course that's more important than who collects the bins in Wandsworth and Wigan.

    But, frankly, the local elections matter rather a lot for Tory MPs wavering about VONCing the PM. So much of Johnson's future rests on "you may not like me... but I'm a winner" that winning and losing in these sort of "who empties the bins?" contests matters more than it otherwise would.

    Assuming the results are a bit slow in coming out, there will only really be one Sunday news cycle to pick them apart before we go straight into the Queen’s Speech and that dominates. In short, add in some NI issues and I don’t think these elections will get much media space unless there’s a real shock.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Applicant said:

    Agreed that the big story will be Stormont.

    Who cares about Wandsworth?

    People who live in Wandsworth. Quite a few national journalists, I would imagine...
    Yes, well the latter is certainly true (although probably not so much the former – many normal people probably don't care or even know which party controls their local council).
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Applicant said:

    Agreed that the big story will be Stormont.

    Who cares about Wandsworth?

    People who live in Wandsworth. Quite a few national journalists, I would imagine...
    Yes, well the latter is certainly true (although probably not so much the former – many normal people probably don't care or even know which party controls their local council).
    It's a good point though. In the grand scheme of things it doesn't much matter to the Tories if Labour continue to pile up votes in inner London - they only have three constituencies there to lose.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    edited May 3

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350

    Applicant said:

    Agreed that the big story will be Stormont.

    Who cares about Wandsworth?

    People who live in Wandsworth. Quite a few national journalists, I would imagine...
    Yes, well the latter is certainly true (although probably not so much the former – many normal people probably don't care or even know which party controls their local council).
    Yup. I return to my proposal of abolishing the lot and running all services from Westminster with everyone getting the same, and some chunky bulk buying discounts.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    Might they do it again in the event of second place?

    I recall purist Unionists boosters have sometimes chosen to define the Alliance as Unionists to bolster appearances; it would be grimly entertaining to see how they'd react in such a scenario.
    Indeed. I suspect the Alliance have at times been cast by said boosters as neutral unionist protestants, to go alongside the catholic unionist protestants, muslim unionist protestants and atheist nationalist unionist protestants to make up the unionist protestant numbers.
    I love it when I start off a debate. I'll just innocently wander off now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136
    Russia goes full Ken Livingstone:

    "History, unfortunately, holds some tragic examples of cooperation between Jews and the Nazis."

    https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521429767282733058
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Would that be in breach of the GFA? Or would it just be portrayed as such?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Rwanda

    The number of migrants crossing the English Channel so far this year is more than three times higher than it was at the same time in 2021 https://trib.al/DbijtgZ
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 820
    Lennon said:

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.

    Totally agree. Unfortunately the parochialism of the GB (London/Salford) media means that it's the one that will get the least comment and attention sadly.
    Did you see the latest poll? DUP and APNI level on 18.2%!
  • theakestheakes Posts: 610
    Greens have a good night? What about the Lib Dems? They are keeping their counsel but I hear things are going well, Hull, Sheffield, Barnsley, Sunderland, Wokingham etc etc.
    Greens may have more gains because they start from a miniscule base but on total votes could be outdone 3 -1.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 3

    Lennon said:

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.

    Totally agree. Unfortunately the parochialism of the GB (London/Salford) media means that it's the one that will get the least comment and attention sadly.
    Did you see the latest poll? DUP and APNI level on 18.2%!
    Lucidtalk however has it SF 26% DUP 20% Alliance 14% and UUP 14% and SDLP 10% and TUV 9%

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1521267491258916871?s=20&t=TJayhDM2TPWL82rU2c8KkA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 3
    theakes said:

    Greens have a good night? What about the Lib Dems? They are keeping their counsel but I hear things are going well, Hull, Sheffield, Barnsley, Sunderland, Wokingham etc etc.
    Greens may have more gains because they start from a miniscule base but on total votes could be outdone 3 -1.

    I doubt the LDs will gain many seats in the North, the Southeast is their best prospect
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Tories lose Barnet. Fabricant caught out by a gust of wind?
    Presumably the mathematics of how strong that gust has to be is described by the Barnet formula.
    👏👏👏
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 820

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    There would be a constitutional crisis. Alliance doing well breaks the consociational structure built in to the Assembly. Alliance would like NI to become a normal democracy with a normal legislature and executive. That said, Alliance are not blind to the reasons for consociationalism. So I don’t know what the outcome would be!

    If they even do as well as the latest poll predicts (18%, neck and neck with the largest Unionist party), there will be pressure to change the rules of the Assembly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    If a non-sectarian group comes first then they provide the First Minister, but second still sees them shut out.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,204
    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,962
    MISTY said:

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.


    I disagree, the result could significantly contribute to Johnson's speedy demise.
    Very unlikely. Labour are not far off being maxxed out in these council elections, so the Labour gains will be limited. Wandsworth would be an embarrassing loss for the Tories, but still one that can be shrugged off as mid-term blues.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,910
    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027
    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    Former generals and KGB (dissolved 1991) officials doesn't seem the most powerful constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799

    MISTY said:

    By far the most significant contest is the Stormont election. The locals on mainland GB won't have any lasting national effect one way or the other.


    I disagree, the result could significantly contribute to Johnson's speedy demise.
    Very unlikely. Labour are not far off being maxxed out in these council elections, so the Labour gains will be limited. Wandsworth would be an embarrassing loss for the Tories, but still one that can be shrugged off as mid-term blues.
    Plus every Wandsworth MP is already Labour anyway.

    Unless Labour get a 10%+ lead on NEV or the Tory voteshare falls below 30% as in the 2019 locals, Johnson will likely survive
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478

    Am I the only one who gets confused between Natalie Bennett (Israeli leader) and Naftali Bennett (Green party leader)?

    yes
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,506
    EPG said:

    Am I the only one who gets confused between Natalie Bennett (Israeli leader) and Naftali Bennett (Green party leader)?

    It beats getting confused among Natalie Bennett, Leanne Wood and presumably Natalie Wood.
    Well sticking to NI politics, Arlene Phillips and Arlene Foster for me.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,582
    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Holding Kensington & Westminster doesn’t seem very… compelling… evidence of a strong Tory performance
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,903

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Holding Kensington & Westminster doesn’t seem very… compelling… evidence of a strong Tory performance
    Also, note

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220503.html

    which predicts that Labour will gain Westminster. They might be wrong, but it makes the betting price look like value.

    It also predicts a collapse in Green and Independent councillors. The former, as pointed out on the last thread, might be due to a strong performance last time, but in general I think polls understimate minor parties and especially independents (who says "I'm gonna vote independent" to an opinion poll?).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 820
    NI Assembly, after some research I have learnt that…

    APNI and DUP (for different reasons) both support removing Designations and replacing them with a requirement for a supermajority. I presume Westminster legislation would be required for any changes.

    Ministries in the Assembly executive are determined by how many seats a party has won using d’Hondt, so Designation doesn’t come into it. If an Other party does well, it will be offered ministries. So, Alliance could miss out on Deputy First Minister, but they’ll still have power through ministers (unless they opt to go into opposition).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,910
    Here is the article Paul Singh was linking to:

    https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/

    Nice line at the end.

    'When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment.' Well certainly not if they're busy preparing a coup!

    We have the 9th May parade next Monday and the rumour is that Putin will be going under the knife and handing over control for a few days at some point. Could that be the moment to watch out for?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 3

    HYUFD said:

    Yes on the current polling Labour should gain Wandsworth and Barnet on Thursday but the Tories should hold Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

    Holding Kensington & Westminster doesn’t seem very… compelling… evidence of a strong Tory performance
    Maybe not in the mid 1990s given Kensington and Chelsea was one of the safest Tory seats left in the UK in 1997.

    Post Brexit however there is more of a case for it being a good result for the Tories, Kensington is the 2nd seat on the Labour target list for the next general election and Chelsea and Fulham is 37th on the LD target list
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    Yes I would like to see evidence of that, because I don't think many would have thought that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,582
    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136
    kjh said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    Yes I would like to see evidence of that, because I don't think many would have thought that.
    British journalists were saying in January that “the UK has no intention of letting Ukraine fall”.

    https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483899430378127365
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 820
    Article on what happens if Alliance comes second (and most polling still puts them in third): https://www.northernslant.com/what-happens-if-alliance-comes-second/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152
    edited May 3

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,582
    kjh said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    Yes I would like to see evidence of that, because I don't think many would have thought that.
    Before the invasion could still be late January though when he would have had decent intelligence
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,699
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting on both counts.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1521462185939120128
    German Federal Government decided to transfer 7 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 howitzers from the Bundeswehr warehouses- Welt sources

    Decision taken contrary to position of 🇩🇪 military command, who warned only 40 of available 119 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 Rbattleready

    I don't think the low combat readiness of Germany's armed forces is much of a surprise.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Just reposting this from first thing.

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507

    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
    "But boss, I've only just got back from asking for a long weight."
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    Might they do it again in the event of second place?

    I recall purist Unionists boosters have sometimes chosen to define the Alliance as Unionists to bolster appearances; it would be grimly entertaining to see how they'd react in such a scenario.
    Indeed. I suspect the Alliance have at times been cast by said boosters as neutral unionist protestants, to go alongside the catholic unionist protestants, muslim unionist protestants and atheist nationalist unionist protestants to make up the unionist protestant numbers.
    We have one such person on PB, of course.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152
    edited May 3

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    On a point of order: 'must' is ambiguous.

    1 = ought to fail (desire)
    2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)

    YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    That's not at all the same thing.

    Saying he will fail and saying he must fail are completely different.

    Why do we have to waste so much of our lives explaining Boris Johnson's lies?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579
    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    @Heathener - I responded to your Woking post earlier:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906419#Comment_3906419

    Do you have any views on the specific wards in Woking?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,050
    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That is correct I believe. Probably in some sunny street in south Belfast there resides a protestant adherent of the Hindu goddess Kali.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 552

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember that policy about sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda that was announced to great fanfare over Easter? Well, it’s not exactly going according to plan.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rwanda-flights-months-away_uk_62711ee4e4b0bc48f57fc59f

    Giving people smugglers a whole summer to go with a Last Chance Before Rwanda campaign. Genius.
    'The spokesman was unable to say when the first flight would be: “We have received pre-action correspondence from a number of legal firms, I can’t get into that more … but we still maintain our hope to have the first flights take place in a matter of months.”'

    Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and targeted? Well, perhaps the last, but that's exploded by the look of it.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 552
    Big day for all the Trump loathers out there.

    Will the candidate he endorses win the Ohio Republican Primary?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That is correct I believe. Probably in some sunny street in south Belfast there resides a protestant adherent of the Hindu goddess Kali.
    Or at least of her teeth.

    Don't google it...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,050

    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-11/could-siloviki-challenge-putin

    April 11 article by Soldatov who is quoted by cityam as thinking coup on cards. Back then he was saying the siloviki were not enough of a force on their own, would need regional governors to come in. No sign of that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    BTW - was it you or JJ who recommended the book Dreadnought Gunnery and the Battle of Jutland by John Brooks? Just finished it; most interesting. Wondering about his Jutland book now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That is correct I believe. Probably in some sunny street in south Belfast there resides a protestant adherent of the Hindu goddess Kali.
    And of course Protestant Anglicans, who are members of a Catholic church.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Carnyx said:

    Big claim by Johnson that he thought the Russian effort was doomed before the invasion - or at least unlikely to succeed on their optimistic timescale - and that he was telling everyone he could about this beforehand. I'd like it to be true but as ever with Johnson one has to tread carefully.

    It is a big claim but the evidence in the public domain is that it is true.

    Boris was saying before the war even began that Putin was going to invade, but that he must fail.

    The thing that surprised me in the first day of the war is how forceful Boris was in his response, saying that Putin "must fail, and must be seen to fail" was quite emphatic considering that almost all other received wisdom being quoted was that Putin would succeed within days.

    The British and Americans clearly both had very good intelligence about what was going to happen and were closely co-ordinating with the Ukrainians.

    So in this one instance, I see no reason not to believe it is true. Other than who is saying the words.
    On a point of order: 'must' is ambiguous.

    1 = ought to fail (desire)
    2 = will fail (future tense, arising from logical analysis)

    YOur quotation strongly indicates 1 not 2.
    Perhaps but considering how firm the language is, as well as how firm other comments by both Boris and Biden (and others from respective governments) were even pre-war at a time when others were suggesting Ukraine would fall rapidly, I see little reason to not believe both the UK and USA had credible intelligence behind the comments.

    It will be interesting for future historians to study this time, that's for certain, but I expect they will find that the UK, USA and Ukraine were sharing some very detailed intelligence, weaponry and expertise both before and during the war.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,050
    MISTY said:

    TimT said:

    Seems like wishful thinking - and overconfidence that what comes after will necessarily be better:

    Paul Singh
    @Paul1Singh
    ·
    2h
    Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

    If Boris Johnson can singlehandedly overthrow Putin by Thursday the Conservatives can retain Wandsworth.

    Incoming Falklands Factor for GE23, and it was all Boris...according to the Sun, Mail and Express.
    Ukraine is being massively overplayed as an influence on the UK electorate, I think.

    Standards of living, energy policy and taxation policy, vice versa.
    That's about right. Partygate and Ukraine are second string issues.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Map of US state laws on abortion if Roe v Wade is overturned:

    https://i.redd.it/fwak6p2sr6x81.jpg
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    For many voters, the 'cost of living' crisis is now the ‘cost of Johnson' crisis.

    My latest for @theipaper on *that* @GMB interview.


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-gmb-interview-cost-of-living-crisis-tories-catastrophe-1608078
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    Article on what happens if Alliance comes second (and most polling still puts them in third): https://www.northernslant.com/what-happens-if-alliance-comes-second/

    That's an excellent piece.

    Key paragraph here (TLDR – Alliance could designate as unionist for convenience and have form in that regard, although have denied they would ever do it again)

    They could decide to designate as unionist in order to get the job. There is some precedent for this as some Alliance MLAs did it briefly in 2001 to vote in a government and protect the Good Friday Agreement. They undesignated themselves soon after and the party has said that its MLAs won’t do anything similar again.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,204
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:
    What job shall we give the intern today?

    Call London Zoo and ask to speak to Mr Charles Lyon? Or call the Kremlin and ask about the planned coup?
    "But boss, I've only just got back from asking for a long weight."
    And you still haven't got it to me nor that can of tartan paint I asked for ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,152

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    kjh said:

    Question for those in the know. Today there were reports on the Alliance coming 2nd in NI. Who becomes deputy then as they are not defined by sectarianism and my understanding is the leader and deputy have to come from either side.

    The largest party designating as Unionist. Alliance have done so in the past, but only for short-term tactical reasons.
    So if the Alliance somehow got 51% of the vote but did not designate either way they still would not get either leader or deputy leader positions?
    Would seem to be a bonkers outcome. Presumably they'd designate as unionist for convenience/democratic reasons were they to be runner up as polled. They could then say, "we will try to abolish these stupid sectarian rules now we are in power".
    Someone, I'm ashamed to have forgotten whom, explained on PB the other day that for certain constitutional purposes in NI, anyone who is not a RC is deened to be Protestant. So we get the official UK Government notion of protestant atheists, protestant Muslims, protestant Pagans, protestant Jedi Knights ... I'm not sure if the Alliance are deemed to be protestant non-sectarians on the same logic ...

    Edit: I did check the date of the post and it wasn't 1 April. It is just batty enough to be true ...
    That was me….

    NI police service - has to be 50/50 Catholic/Protestant.

    The peak, perfect moment was when a couple of Eastern Europeans joined the PSNI. They were, of course, Catholic. The Shinners got upset because they were the wrong kind of Catholics. Possibly because immigrants to NI tend not to be Nationalist.

    Anyway - the solution was to count them in the Protestant quota. So we have Protestant Catholics.
    Aren't Anglicans Protestant Catholics in the first place technically?
    No need for "technically". It's absolutely up front in black and white in the corporate stuff, see their website. Basically just swap HMtQ for Pope Francis.
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