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A BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    Heathener said:

    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.

    They are reporting a senior official saying it's so damning that he may have no choice but to resign.

    That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
    I cant recall who the leading "would do better than T May" was back in 2018-9..... genuinely who was the leading light?
    Polling was certainly clear by 2019 that Boris would do better with Theresa May amongst Leave voters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    As of yesterday, I am officially off all of the antidepressants I was on and am now standing on my own two feet.


    Glad to hear it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    pm215 said:

    MrEd said:


    42% for Le Pen, especially given the furore over Russia probably cost her several points at least, should be taken as a warning both that France is unhappy and that Macron has alienated large parts of the population.

    Being in government will do that for you -- you have to run on what you've done rather than merely what you promise you will do. For an estimate of how much of France is in favour of far-right populism, the round 1 votes are probably more helpful -- the two round system means that Le Pen's r2 result is a mix of genuine support and protest votes.
    No doubt though that the french are unhappy and don't seem to think the country is going in the right direction.

    Bootle has interesting piece on their economy this morning:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/macron-faces-mammoth-task-reviving-french-economy/

    One thing the FR seem to get right is productivity. Maybe that has been forced on them because hiring people is so difficult. We seem to have the opposite issue. Our productivity is appalling.
    Some possible reasons for the UK's productivity issues:

    1) Low interest rates allowing 'zombie firms' to survive and so not have their resources available for better use

    2) A general economic shift towards low productivity sectors eg hand car washes

    3) The government pumping in so much money into the economy that it reduced the need for productivity improvements

    4) Availability of migrant workers leading it to be cheaper to employ the low paid than invest in equipment

    5) Business profits not being passed on to the workers as higher pay giving those workers less incentive to increase profits by higher productivity
    6) Financialization and rent seeking.
    Given that the average house "earned" more than the average person last year, what's the point in trying to make a business more efficient?

    And given that the only solution (build a lot more blooming houses) will cause rapid localised electoral death (from NIMBYs) followed by prolonged electoral death (as the fairy gold turns back into base metal), we're kind of stuffed.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    Possibly, but surely a long-shot.

    I think Wallace would be a good choice if the priority is reassuring middle-class trad Tory voters who could very easily defect. That will be a big concern to many Tory MPs in southern suburban seats. Also, I don't think Wallace would prove to be quite as dull as he's being represented. So not a bad option. Solid, and competent.

    But if the priority is maintaining the Red Wall then you need a different type of politician, ie, more like Boris. Big personality, GSOH, flamboyant. Has to be Penny Mordaunt.

    That seems to be the choice.

    (Really can't see the attraction of Liz Truss. Dry as dust with no personality or presentational skills.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2022

    As of yesterday, I am officially off all of the antidepressants I was on and am now standing on my own two feet.

    Well done.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426
    edited April 2022
    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
  • Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    I'm not sure if any of you know this but a close relative was at the heart of the terrorist attack at Fishmongers Hall. I knew what had happened many, many hours prior to the public but what was amazing, was how wrong the media was about what was going on.

    They had the location wrong until about 9PM that night - and were still getting details wrong days later.

    I hope your close relative has recovers from what must be a terrifying and traumatic ordeal.
  • glw said:

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.

    It's amazing how so many bad employers in volatile industries are finding it hard to fill jobs when they can't simply offer the job to anyone in the EU. Amazing.
    Almost as amazing as how so many lefties who claim to be concerned about the plight of the working poor are suddenly concerned about the plight of bad employers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    I still think you're trolling .
    Well I guess I will never disabuse you of that then but I suspect it suits you because it means you can dismiss what I write and not engage with it.

    Really someone using a VPN shouldn't be a thing of wonder. Imho everyone who ever goes on the internet should disable cookies and shield themselves. Data mining, tracking and analytics is incredibly insidious. And, incidentally, a prime tool of people in Putin's pockets.

    Anyway, let's leave that there.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    My reading is exactly that. It is the sort of thing that could emerge over a few drinks in a Commons bar.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    As of yesterday, I am officially off all of the antidepressants I was on and am now standing on my own two feet.

    Well done. I've suffered for years with issues so this is heartening.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,691

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
    To be fair, Heathener also gives out plenty of abuse, even when it seems unwarranted.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited April 2022
    I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757
  • OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Please don't go Olly, you're a valued contributor here.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
    To be fair, Heathener also gives out plenty of abuse, even when it seems unwarranted.
    Trying to tone it back.

    Firstly being accused of being a troll, especially a Russian supporter when I HATE Putin is such a wind-up of me.

    Secondly I confess that there is so much about Boris Johnson I hate with a blind passion. Conservative MPs and policies nearly as much. They can set me into a rage against the machine, for which I apologise.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833

    As of yesterday, I am officially off all of the antidepressants I was on and am now standing on my own two feet.

    Pleased to hear it Horse. A big step in the right direction! Keep checking your mood regularly, and talk regularly to a range of people on a range of subjects. I was where you are about two years ago - PM me at any time if it would help to talk.
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    Quite. Eccentric but no troll

    There was an issue as to her IP address but I don't understand why that is a thing any more when landline IP addresses are dynamically allocated and reallocated if you pull the plug overnight, and when we all have petabytes of free 5G we can use anyway
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 2022

    I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    A "banned IP" in this case just means a VPN. I use a VPN as I believe everyone should. Means absolutely nothing.

    I can recommend Windscribe or FreeVPN for Chrome. Both really excellent.

    Also means I get to stream IPL cricket for free. Naughty maybe but hey ho.
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    Eh?

    How is that trolling? They didn't want to identify their source, that's not trolling?

    I don't want to identify my relative as it would be pretty obvious if I gave any details, who it is and who I am - that's not trolling. I call that respect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
    I think the issue was getting caught.

    Bit like coke sniffing in the City. I still remember that kid at DB who thought it was 1986, got caught by senior manager in a bathroom at work, got sacked, jumped off the Cote D'Argent.....

    I somehow doubt he was the only one doing coke.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    My reading is exactly that. It is the sort of thing that could emerge over a few drinks in a Commons bar.
    In many ways an enjoyable story. Rayner gets lots of sympathy and support from all and sundry, we are reminded she has legs, it is confirmed that 4 billion years of evolution has done its job well, possible a little too well, everyone denies the obvious truth that people generally use all assets available to gain advantage and that men are exactly what they are, we all remember and forget Scumgate again..........what larks.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    China needs to accept the loss of face, and get hold of a billion Western vaccines as soon as possible.

    Not an easy thing for them culturally though, perhaps they can get away with rebranding one of the mRNA jabs with a Chinese name?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    I still think you're trolling .
    Well I guess I will never disabuse you of that then but I suspect it suits you because it means you can dismiss what I write and not engage with it.

    Really someone using a VPN shouldn't be a thing of wonder. Imho everyone who ever goes on the internet should disable cookies and shield themselves. Data mining, tracking and analytics is incredibly insidious. And, incidentally, a prime tool of people in Putin's pockets.

    Anyway, let's leave that there.
    Have you managed to fix the problem with your VPN being compromised?
  • I just don't see how an IP is an indicator of anything, I am going to have to respectfully say that this is a poor way of determining trolls if this is what the moderation team are doing.

    @Heathener seems to post quite sensibly, I don't see how the IP is relevant. If they were posting nonsense like pro Russian propaganda I'd get it but they're not to my knowledge.

    We have a Tory here who just ramps day after day, I assume they get a pass because their IP is UK based but does that really change anything?

    I am just so confused by this whole issue.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    My reading is exactly that. It is the sort of thing that could emerge over a few drinks in a Commons bar.
    And also, could very easily emerge from Boris as a "joke;" Phwoar, PMQs is hard enough without having to focus on the Flame Haired Temptress's pantyhose sort of thing. This is someone who "joked" to a lot of near strangers about buyer's remorse over his wife.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
    Competence is his best asset.

    I quite like Starmer, but dullness is a problem rather than an asset. In 1997, Blair was offering a brighter, as well as a more competent, tomorrow. Today, Starmer does seem to offer a competent but rather dreary tomorrow. I think Labour need to address that more broadly. Not being Johnson might be enough, as not being Trump did the trick (just about) for Biden. But it might not, and Johnson might not be the opponent. They do need to bring a bit of sunshine if they want to be confident.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    glw said:

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.

    It's amazing how so many bad employers in volatile industries are finding it hard to fill jobs when they can't simply offer the job to anyone in the EU. Amazing.
    Almost as amazing as how so many lefties who claim to be concerned about the plight of the working poor are suddenly concerned about the plight of bad employers.
    Given they all want cheap nannies for Tarquin and Griselda....
  • Taz said:

    I'm not sure if any of you know this but a close relative was at the heart of the terrorist attack at Fishmongers Hall. I knew what had happened many, many hours prior to the public but what was amazing, was how wrong the media was about what was going on.

    They had the location wrong until about 9PM that night - and were still getting details wrong days later.

    I hope your close relative has recovers from what must be a terrifying and traumatic ordeal.
    Thanks @Taz you are kind as always.

    Yes they have recovered now, it was very traumatic indeed.
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    Eh?

    How is that trolling? They didn't want to identify their source, that's not trolling?

    I don't want to identify my relative as it would be pretty obvious if I gave any details, who it is and who I am - that's not trolling. I call that respect.
    Anonymising an anecdote about someone personally associated with you that we wouldn't know about isn't what I'm referring to.

    Heathener has repeatedly claimed "sources" right at the top of the Conservative Party, claiming some quite outrageous things about those people etc that hasn't been substantiated by anything publicly available - that's what I view as trolling.

    Its the same as if a right-winger claimed to have "sources" at the top of the Labour Party and kept making outrageous claims about Labour Party individuals etc that aren't substantiated by anything public. If someone right-wing kept making outrageous and unsubstantiated claims about Labour individuals because of their personal anonymous "sources" would you take that seriously, or think they're trolling?
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    Eh?

    How is that trolling? They didn't want to identify their source, that's not trolling?

    I don't want to identify my relative as it would be pretty obvious if I gave any details, who it is and who I am - that's not trolling. I call that respect.
    Anonymising an anecdote about someone personally associated with you that we wouldn't know about isn't what I'm referring to.

    Heathener has repeatedly claimed "sources" right at the top of the Conservative Party, claiming some quite outrageous things about those people etc that hasn't been substantiated by anything publicly available - that's what I view as trolling.

    Its the same as if a right-winger claimed to have "sources" at the top of the Labour Party and kept making outrageous claims about Labour Party individuals etc that aren't substantiated by anything public. If someone right-wing kept making outrageous and unsubstantiated claims about Labour individuals because of their personal anonymous "sources" would you take that seriously, or think they're trolling?
    Well I have a friend who is very close to Keir Starmer - they've told me things before I've posted here. Such as around Yvette Cooper coming back into the cabinet.

    I won't post their details because again that seems disrespectful - so you now consider me a troll?
  • Got our first cricket match this evening, very excited!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I just don't see how an IP is an indicator of anything, I am going to have to respectfully say that this is a poor way of determining trolls if this is what the moderation team are doing.

    @Heathener seems to post quite sensibly, I don't see how the IP is relevant. If they were posting nonsense like pro Russian propaganda I'd get it but they're not to my knowledge.

    We have a Tory here who just ramps day after day, I assume they get a pass because their IP is UK based but does that really change anything?

    I am just so confused by this whole issue.

    There are black lists of IPs that emit spam or otherwise indicated that the machine has been compromised - very often a computer that has been taken over by hackers to use a part of a bot army.

    These are used by the admins of evenly vaguely major sites to hell keep the garbage down.

    That a VPN is apparently using such an IP address would be alarming to the user. I would change VPNs immediately. And considered rebuilding (in software terms) my machine from scratch....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    A very angry reader of The Mail On Sunday!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDHbX3V9Y4A
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    10:17am
    Oil prices sink 5pc on China demand fears
    Oil prices have slumped 5pc this morning amid fears a fresh Covid outbreak in China could hammer demand.

    Benchmark Brent crude crashed to just above $101 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at $97.

    Fears are mounting that Beijing could follow Shanghai into lockdown as Beijing pursues its strict zero Covid strategy.

    Shoppers have begun panic buying after authorities began mass testing of all residents.

    Torygraph, chinese stocks also off a cliff. #herewegoagain
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    Eh?

    How is that trolling? They didn't want to identify their source, that's not trolling?

    I don't want to identify my relative as it would be pretty obvious if I gave any details, who it is and who I am - that's not trolling. I call that respect.
    Anonymising an anecdote about someone personally associated with you that we wouldn't know about isn't what I'm referring to.

    Heathener has repeatedly claimed "sources" right at the top of the Conservative Party, claiming some quite outrageous things about those people etc that hasn't been substantiated by anything publicly available - that's what I view as trolling.

    Its the same as if a right-winger claimed to have "sources" at the top of the Labour Party and kept making outrageous claims about Labour Party individuals etc that aren't substantiated by anything public. If someone right-wing kept making outrageous and unsubstantiated claims about Labour individuals because of their personal anonymous "sources" would you take that seriously, or think they're trolling?
    Well I have a friend who is very close to Keir Starmer - they've told me things before I've posted here. Such as around Yvette Cooper coming back into the cabinet.

    I won't post their details because again that seems disrespectful - so you now consider me a troll?
    No, because you're sympathetic to Keir Starmer so your comments come across as genuine. Plus you're not the boy who cried wolf repeatedly claiming things that don't come to pass.

    If BJO kept doing it, then yes I'd consider it trolling, because he hates Keir and has made that clear, so to be claiming some anonymous insight is odd.

    Heathener hates the Tories yet keeps claiming to have some unique insight that then isn't substantiated. If you want to consider that something other than trolling, then feel free.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
  • Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Easy win for Labour, banning non dom status

    But didn't Ed Miliband already ban it?

    And Jeremy Corbyn twice re-banned it too.

    How many times are they going to ban it?
    This isn't even a proposal to ban it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    I just don't see how an IP is an indicator of anything, I am going to have to respectfully say that this is a poor way of determining trolls if this is what the moderation team are doing.

    @Heathener seems to post quite sensibly, I don't see how the IP is relevant. If they were posting nonsense like pro Russian propaganda I'd get it but they're not to my knowledge.

    We have a Tory here who just ramps day after day, I assume they get a pass because their IP is UK based but does that really change anything?

    I am just so confused by this whole issue.

    There are black lists of IPs that emit spam or otherwise indicated that the machine has been compromised - very often a computer that has been taken over by hackers to use a part of a bot army.

    These are used by the admins of evenly vaguely major sites to hell keep the garbage down.

    That a VPN is apparently using such an IP address would be alarming to the user. I would change VPNs immediately. And considered rebuilding (in software terms) my machine from scratch....
    What’s really odd is that you and others have offered this helpful advice many times over several months to this poster. And every time they change the subject.
  • I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    The moderation team has stepped in to share their own concerns about red flags, banned IP addresses etc

    Posting something you don't agree with isn't trolling, I think some people sometimes are trolls who post things I agree with. Instead for me the trolling is the I know someone but can't say who nudge, nudge, wink, wink nonsense that is often written about.

    If you have something to say then come out and say it. If you don't, then pretending you do or keeping it "anonymous" is just crap. Especially on a site like this.
    Eh?

    How is that trolling? They didn't want to identify their source, that's not trolling?

    I don't want to identify my relative as it would be pretty obvious if I gave any details, who it is and who I am - that's not trolling. I call that respect.
    Anonymising an anecdote about someone personally associated with you that we wouldn't know about isn't what I'm referring to.

    Heathener has repeatedly claimed "sources" right at the top of the Conservative Party, claiming some quite outrageous things about those people etc that hasn't been substantiated by anything publicly available - that's what I view as trolling.

    Its the same as if a right-winger claimed to have "sources" at the top of the Labour Party and kept making outrageous claims about Labour Party individuals etc that aren't substantiated by anything public. If someone right-wing kept making outrageous and unsubstantiated claims about Labour individuals because of their personal anonymous "sources" would you take that seriously, or think they're trolling?
    Well I have a friend who is very close to Keir Starmer - they've told me things before I've posted here. Such as around Yvette Cooper coming back into the cabinet.

    I won't post their details because again that seems disrespectful - so you now consider me a troll?
    No, because you're sympathetic to Keir Starmer so your comments come across as genuine. Plus you're not the boy who cried wolf repeatedly claiming things that don't come to pass.

    If BJO kept doing it, then yes I'd consider it trolling, because he hates Keir and has made that clear, so to be claiming some anonymous insight is odd.

    Heathener hates the Tories yet keeps claiming to have some unique insight that then isn't substantiated. If you want to consider that something other than trolling, then feel free.
    Have you seen my GE19 predictions? :D
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    moonshine said:

    I just don't see how an IP is an indicator of anything, I am going to have to respectfully say that this is a poor way of determining trolls if this is what the moderation team are doing.

    @Heathener seems to post quite sensibly, I don't see how the IP is relevant. If they were posting nonsense like pro Russian propaganda I'd get it but they're not to my knowledge.

    We have a Tory here who just ramps day after day, I assume they get a pass because their IP is UK based but does that really change anything?

    I am just so confused by this whole issue.

    There are black lists of IPs that emit spam or otherwise indicated that the machine has been compromised - very often a computer that has been taken over by hackers to use a part of a bot army.

    These are used by the admins of evenly vaguely major sites to hell keep the garbage down.

    That a VPN is apparently using such an IP address would be alarming to the user. I would change VPNs immediately. And considered rebuilding (in software terms) my machine from scratch....
    What’s really odd is that you and others have offered this helpful advice many times over several months to this poster. And every time they change the subject.
    The other question I have is - why have a fixed IP on a VPN, unless you are actually need it?
  • moonshine said:

    I just don't see how an IP is an indicator of anything, I am going to have to respectfully say that this is a poor way of determining trolls if this is what the moderation team are doing.

    @Heathener seems to post quite sensibly, I don't see how the IP is relevant. If they were posting nonsense like pro Russian propaganda I'd get it but they're not to my knowledge.

    We have a Tory here who just ramps day after day, I assume they get a pass because their IP is UK based but does that really change anything?

    I am just so confused by this whole issue.

    There are black lists of IPs that emit spam or otherwise indicated that the machine has been compromised - very often a computer that has been taken over by hackers to use a part of a bot army.

    These are used by the admins of evenly vaguely major sites to hell keep the garbage down.

    That a VPN is apparently using such an IP address would be alarming to the user. I would change VPNs immediately. And considered rebuilding (in software terms) my machine from scratch....
    What’s really odd is that you and others have offered this helpful advice many times over several months to this poster. And every time they change the subject.
    The other question I have is - why have a fixed IP on a VPN, unless you are actually need it?
    Because services like Netflix don't block them as easily, this is quite well understood.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2022

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    Easy win for Labour, banning non dom status

    But didn't Ed Miliband already ban it?

    And Jeremy Corbyn twice re-banned it too.

    How many times are they going to ban it?
    I don't have the numbers to know whether it should be banned or not, but how did Ed and Corbyn ban it. From my memory they lost elections.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
    Read your first 8 words and was going to congratulate you heartily on the late blessing. Well done getting the jab anyway.
    I mischievously text my children yesterday with the words ' we have just had our fourth' as we do have three children, though they are 57, 51 and 47
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I don't understand why anyone thinks @Heathener is a troll? Is it because they post things some people don't agree with?

    Everything they've posted seems pretty sensible to me. This one has totally passed me by - just seems like a lot of unnecessary abuse and I am surprised the moderation team has not stepped in.

    It's because s/he is a troll. For a start, s/he throws around sexist and racist tropes like there's no tomorrow, and s/he loves to play the Azza card.

    The moderation team has as much as said that s/he should have been banned for using a compromised VPN.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
    In case anyone missed the GQ story in the paywalled ST, it was picked up by other outlets:-
    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-cost-gq-magazine-4-000-in-parking-tickets-former-editor-claims-12598087

    The Basic Instinct story? I doubt it was made up but wonder if the Tory source was telling the story against Boris rather than Angela Rayner.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Well done CHB.
    Long term anti depressant use is not always great.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
    Competence is his best asset.

    I quite like Starmer, but dullness is a problem rather than an asset. In 1997, Blair was offering a brighter, as well as a more competent, tomorrow. Today, Starmer does seem to offer a competent but rather dreary tomorrow. I think Labour need to address that more broadly. Not being Johnson might be enough, as not being Trump did the trick (just about) for Biden. But it might not, and Johnson might not be the opponent. They do need to bring a bit of sunshine if they want to be confident.
    The difficulty is that, whoever is in government, 2024-9 probably won't be that sunny. And given some of the imbalances in the economy, that might be for the best. Dreary, competent but decent might be what the country needs... though persuading the country to vote for it may be another matter.

    One other thing, though. Starmer does miss out on zip and pizazz. For that to be fine, it's important that someone near the top in Labour is both providing the pizazz and being very visibly second bananna to Starmer. One of the differences between 2022 and 2021 is that people like Angela Rayner are turning their fire on the government rather than their own party leadership.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    I have just logged in on Tor browser to add a bit of interest to RCS's useragent list.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Got our first cricket match this evening, very excited!

    Very cold too if the forecasters are right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
    The majority of people working in hospitality in the UK were always UK born.

    The myth that all the people working at Pret were from the Czech Republic etc. comes from people who live in rather central London, where foreigners do dominate the low skilled, low pay jobs.

    The situation has not vastly changed in London, either, in terms of ratios of foreigners vs UK citizens in such jobs.

    The problem in the hospitality trade is a shortage of workers, meaning that those who are there are generally over worked.

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.
    The more I read stuff like this, the more I realise what a good employer my daughter was. She would meticulously work out shifts on a 2-week or monthly basis for her staff and notify everyone in plenty of time. Plus she averaged them out over a year so that people were not overworked in the summer and under-employed in winter - at least for the permanent staff.

    Bad / inconsiderate employers are a real pain. For everyone.
    A relative of mine started a building company years back.

    At the time, his policy of paying the right amount into back accounts, on time, and doing all the right paper work for the tax stuff was unheard of in the small domestic building industry.

    All permits and safety stuff up to spec as well.

    He actually had problems with people who couldn't believe that he wasn't pulling some kind of scam on his employees.

    I still remember the look on the face of one client - they asked about the plan. Instead of mumbling something, he produced a poster sized chart Gantt chart of the project. If he had pulled Excalibur out of his briefcase, there would have been less surprise.

    I think the issue is that for people with a certain level of education and experience, proper planning is a thing. For many, making it up as you go along is how it is.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,691

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
    Three or four years ago we purchased an Epson ET4750 Ecotank. The printer cost more, but the ink costs very little. It's been a brilliant little printer - slightly harder to set up, but it just sips the ink. Print quality is good (very good on the right paper).

    I printed out 330 pages of text, double-sided, on Saturday and the ink levels barely went down.

    It was brilliant during lockdown when I printed out educational materials for our little 'unson. Sheet after sheet of maths problems and English tests. I'm an evil dad... ;)

    Best IT purchase I've ever made for my own use.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Journalists should run drafts of significant articles past PB before publishing.

    They should simply get PB'ers to write them!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
    My mother, who is on the vulnerable list, is booked for her 5th jab next week! If you had said just over a year ago that people will be on their 4th and 5th jabs I'm not sure we would have believed it. Just the 3 jabs for me so far but at least one dose of Covid too. The goings on in China right now demonstrate that Zero Covid was a disastrous policy to follow if you didn't distribute the vaccines to the right people quickly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited April 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    Arm chair AdmiralGenerals require top notch coffee.

    image
  • Heathener said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak plunges to the bottom of ConHome Cabinet Members approval ratings survey (he was top for much of last year).

    Ben Wallace now tops the table, followed by Truss and Zahawi

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1518493465646088192?s=20&t=MjlHZR2GPimwQ1T-SAESjw

    I think Zahawi would be a great choice.
    It's strange how no charisma is a positive when it's a Tory MP but Labour, nope guaranteed loser.

    ROFL.
    Except Zahawi does have charisma imho.
    Fair enough, I think he's dull like Starmer - but then I don't think that's a negative.

    Hope you are well felix
    Interesting discussion.

    I reckon if times were good Boris Johnson, despite everything, could still beat Starmer. Who wants someone dull and dour when uplift is needed?

    It's the constellation of circumstances that I reckon has cooked Boris' goose this time. We really do need a decent, honest, sensible person at the helm. If he's dull that's possibly an asset right now.

    It'll be a big change for the country though. Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were both high on charisma. David Cameron even had a bit of something: a decent public speaker for example.

    I like Starmer's policies but I do groan at how flat he comes over.
    Hey @Heathener, glad to see you still posting. The abuse from some posters to you has been just terrible, I hope they will offer you a full apology. Nonetheless, continuing to post shows a great deal of courage.

    I believe dull is Starmer's best asset.
    Competence is his best asset.

    I quite like Starmer, but dullness is a problem rather than an asset. In 1997, Blair was offering a brighter, as well as a more competent, tomorrow. Today, Starmer does seem to offer a competent but rather dreary tomorrow. I think Labour need to address that more broadly. Not being Johnson might be enough, as not being Trump did the trick (just about) for Biden. But it might not, and Johnson might not be the opponent. They do need to bring a bit of sunshine if they want to be confident.
    The difficulty is that, whoever is in government, 2024-9 probably won't be that sunny. And given some of the imbalances in the economy, that might be for the best. Dreary, competent but decent might be what the country needs... though persuading the country to vote for it may be another matter.

    One other thing, though. Starmer does miss out on zip and pizazz. For that to be fine, it's important that someone near the top in Labour is both providing the pizazz and being very visibly second bananna to Starmer. One of the differences between 2022 and 2021 is that people like Angela Rayner are turning their fire on the government rather than their own party leadership.
    Thatcher and Obama both came into office at times when the economic position was precarious, and where things were going to (and did) get worse before they got better.

    But - whatever you think of their respective politics - they didn't win purely on a message of grey competence. Both were offering change and a brighter tomorrow even if both knew full well that it wouldn't literally be tomorrow.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
    Three or four years ago we purchased an Epson ET4750 Ecotank. The printer cost more, but the ink costs very little. It's been a brilliant little printer - slightly harder to set up, but it just sips the ink. Print quality is good (very good on the right paper).

    I printed out 330 pages of text, double-sided, on Saturday and the ink levels barely went down.

    It was brilliant during lockdown when I printed out educational materials for our little 'unson. Sheet after sheet of maths problems and English tests. I'm an evil dad... ;)

    Best IT purchase I've ever made for my own use.
    I normally recommend the cheaper end of laser printers for domestic use, if anyone is WFH or has secondary-school age children. A couple of hundred quid well spent.

    Something like https://www.currys.co.uk/products/hp-color-laserjet-pro-mfp-m283fdw-allinone-wireless-laser-printer-with-fax-10203960.html (but not from that expensive vendor, it appears there are supply issues with printers at the moment).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    It's coffee and croissant time on a BH Monday. Chill a little :smile:

    If you are in need of a high blood pressure, it is also Woman's Hour Day of Maximum Annoyance.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
    The majority of people working in hospitality in the UK were always UK born.

    The myth that all the people working at Pret were from the Czech Republic etc. comes from people who live in rather central London, where foreigners do dominate the low skilled, low pay jobs.

    The situation has not vastly changed in London, either, in terms of ratios of foreigners vs UK citizens in such jobs.

    The problem in the hospitality trade is a shortage of workers, meaning that those who are there are generally over worked.

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.
    The more I read stuff like this, the more I realise what a good employer my daughter was. She would meticulously work out shifts on a 2-week or monthly basis for her staff and notify everyone in plenty of time. Plus she averaged them out over a year so that people were not overworked in the summer and under-employed in winter - at least for the permanent staff.

    Bad / inconsiderate employers are a real pain. For everyone.
    A relative of mine started a building company years back.

    At the time, his policy of paying the right amount into back accounts, on time, and doing all the right paper work for the tax stuff was unheard of in the small domestic building industry.

    All permits and safety stuff up to spec as well.

    He actually had problems with people who couldn't believe that he wasn't pulling some kind of scam on his employees.

    I still remember the look on the face of one client - they asked about the plan. Instead of mumbling something, he produced a poster sized chart Gantt chart of the project. If he had pulled Excalibur out of his briefcase, there would have been less surprise.

    I think the issue is that for people with a certain level of education and experience, proper planning is a thing. For many, making it up as you go along is how it is.....
    "making it up as you go along"... that sounds a bit like our recent experience of UK international foreign, defence and security strategy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    IshmaelZ said:


    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.

    I am not nor ever have been a GQ reader but I do recall reading Johnson's "review" of a 1st Gen Gallardo with the Graziano E-gear transmission. I thought at the time it was staggeringly ignorant but that would make sense if, as now appears, he'd never driven the fucking thing. If somebody lent me a Lambo I'd beat the piss out of it.

    In other Gallardo related news I've just bought a Type 42 R8 with the 4.2 V8 and six speed gated manual. Runs for 30 seconds then goes into limp mode with a veritable blizzard of OBD2 codes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
    One weird thing about that story is that, for many people, getting to drive a bunch of new cars around would be one of the attractions of such a job.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Got our first cricket match this evening, very excited!

    Very cold too if the forecasters are right.
    I'm probably flogging this horse too dead, but we look to be in another one of those weeks that preview the UK's likely post-Gulf stream prevailing weather, rather cloudy, dry and cool, with slight winds from a NE direction.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
    Didn’t the GQ editor essentially admit complicity with Boris’s deception on the undriven cars? He published the reviews knowing full well that Boris had at most just sat in them. I know he’s not our PM, but - on it’s own - it makes him look worse than Boris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.

    I am not nor ever have been a GQ reader but I do recall reading Johnson's "review" of a 1st Gen Gallardo with the Graziano E-gear transmission. I thought at the time it was staggeringly ignorant but that would make sense if, as now appears, he'd never driven the fucking thing. If somebody lent me a Lambo I'd beat the piss out of it.

    In other Gallardo related news I've just bought a Type 42 R8 with the 4.2 V8 and six speed gated manual. Runs for 30 seconds then goes into limp mode with a veritable blizzard of OBD2 codes.
    Old R8s make E60 M5s seem like reliable daily drivers. Good luck!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/23/boris-johnson-tells-tories-downing-street-abba-party-work-event/

    At a meeting of the Conservative parliamentary party on Tuesday night, Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, is said to have congratulated Mr Johnson on his efforts in helping Ukraine against the Russian invasion but added: "But 'partygate' really matters, so I must ask you if you stand by what you said in January, that what happened in the flat was work." Mr Johnson replied that he did stand by his assurance.

    Couple of days old but I hadn't seen this
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pro_Rata said:

    Got our first cricket match this evening, very excited!

    Very cold too if the forecasters are right.
    I'm probably flogging this horse too dead, but we look to be in another one of those weeks that preview the UK's likely post-Gulf stream prevailing weather, rather cloudy, dry and cool, with slight winds from a NE direction.
    Spring and summer droughts are a consistent thing. I was away all last April and a large olive tree in a pot in the garden very nearly died of thirst - dropped all its leaves. In west Devon.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    AlistairM said:

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
    My mother, who is on the vulnerable list, is booked for her 5th jab next week! If you had said just over a year ago that people will be on their 4th and 5th jabs I'm not sure we would have believed it. Just the 3 jabs for me so far but at least one dose of Covid too. The goings on in China right now demonstrate that Zero Covid was a disastrous policy to follow if you didn't distribute the vaccines to the right people quickly.
    Yes. Doing both policies was perfectly possible - New Zealand did a good job with their vaccination program - even if Zero COVID was fools earned in the end.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    Intriguingly Lidl sell (IMHO) decent r and g coffee for £6.50 a kilo (in 227 gm bags), and until a few weeks ago it was under £5 a kilo. Not sure how this can be done. Their price bears no relation to the only other supermarket I use.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
    Management Consultancy can be summed up as paying someone to read you watch and then telling you the time and who then go on to sell your watch to other people.

    I have been on both ends of this relationship. Starting my career in it and involuntarily being on the receiving end of it. Neither were satisfying. Best justifications I can think of for employing them are:

    a) Because you can't see the wood for the trees
    b) Management are too scared to take a big decision and want someone to tell them what they should do
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    Is it possible that the story was made up by someone? As it happens it has taken off, but that is not entirely predictable, and someone somewhere may have wanted to fill some space in a way which may have been instantly forgettable but wasn't.

    Perhaps it was one of the 3 MPs who were about to defect to the Conservatives, that we were told about with such confidence?

    I am fairly convinced that about 50% of "anonymous sourced" stories in politics are made up. If nothing else, when they are proven false, why don't the journalists do the old fashioned thing and expose the liars (it's how they used to keep anonymous sources honest)?
    Don't think so, our PM is evidence that journalists making up stories are liable to the sack, even if the message from his overall career arc is a bit mixed

    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.
    One weird thing about that story is that, for many people, getting to drive a bunch of new cars around would be one of the attractions of such a job.
    Oh hell yeah, that’s most of the fun of it. It’s the manufacturer’s press vehicle, they’re intending for it to be ragged like crazy.

    Some of the most fun I’ve had as a Middle East expat, has been going into top brand car dealers and wrangling test drives. They have a hard time these days, working out who has serious money and who doesn’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
    Read your first 8 words and was going to congratulate you heartily on the late blessing. Well done getting the jab anyway.
    I mischievously text my children yesterday with the words ' we have just had our fourth' as we do have three children, though they are 57, 51 and 47
    Moderna is an unusual choice of name.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
    Three or four years ago we purchased an Epson ET4750 Ecotank. The printer cost more, but the ink costs very little. It's been a brilliant little printer - slightly harder to set up, but it just sips the ink. Print quality is good (very good on the right paper).

    I printed out 330 pages of text, double-sided, on Saturday and the ink levels barely went down.

    It was brilliant during lockdown when I printed out educational materials for our little 'unson. Sheet after sheet of maths problems and English tests. I'm an evil dad... ;)

    Best IT purchase I've ever made for my own use.
    Got myself an Epson ET-8550 - same idea, new gubbins, but prints A3 as well as A4 (really great for blowing up A4 pdf proofs for proofreading for my now older-than-they-were eyes). Bit of bleed through on thin paper but I have not bothered to try tweaking as I am using a huge stack of one-side used paper ex Mrs C's work. Bliss not to have to find ink cartridges for the thing, even more bliss not to have to worry when they stop making the damned things and 'compatible' ones don't work. Only worry is that the cost is high front end so one has to cross fingers o rget from a decent supplier with a 2 or 3 year guarantee.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    IshmaelZ said:

    I have just logged in on Tor browser to add a bit of interest to RCS's useragent list.

    I don't think @rcs1000 has any problem with people using Tor.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    I think my problem with the story is that due to cameras it should be provable - what we were saying about quality of journalism applies. It is clearly nonsense, however I still can't rule out that Rayner didn't joke about it in a bar. It probably would throw Johnson and she has said some pretty vile stuff in the past! It would only be a story of they got a recording of her joking or saying she would do it, then got video from the commons. Then it is something less worse than 20 things Boris has done in the last 12 months.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Indeed. HP are another classic example. A printer for c. £25 and then cartridges which can cost as much for each refill. And then they really went full tonto, programming their printers only to work when the chip inside ordered your next refill ... from HP.

    Nowadays I avoid all such buy-ins. My bean-to-cup DeLonghi Eletta is a complete joy and every so often I can snap up a bargain Lavazza bean or Starbucks bean offer making it even cheaper. Basically I get barista quality coffee for, what, 10p a cup?
    There was an old story about HP calling in management consultants who advised them to close loss-making division B and expand profitable division C. It was gently explained that B made the printers that used C's consumables.

    On coffee, the secret is that Nespresso is better than instant and less faff than grounds. We had a whip-round to buy one in my old office.
    Management Consultancy can be summed up as paying someone to read you watch and then telling you the time and who then go on to sell your watch to other people.

    I have been on both ends of this relationship. Starting my career in it and involuntarily being on the receiving end of it. Neither were satisfying. Best justifications I can think of for employing them are:

    a) Because you can't see the wood for the trees
    b) Management are too scared to take a big decision and want someone to tell them what they should do
    c) A department knows what needs to be done, but can’t get it past senior management and want a “second opinion” to help their case.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am fascinated by the GQ story that he reviewed cars without actually driving them, time and time again. Presented as a Good Old Boris what a card story but I think it ought to be damaging.

    I am not nor ever have been a GQ reader but I do recall reading Johnson's "review" of a 1st Gen Gallardo with the Graziano E-gear transmission. I thought at the time it was staggeringly ignorant but that would make sense if, as now appears, he'd never driven the fucking thing. If somebody lent me a Lambo I'd beat the piss out of it.

    In other Gallardo related news I've just bought a Type 42 R8 with the 4.2 V8 and six speed gated manual. Runs for 30 seconds then goes into limp mode with a veritable blizzard of OBD2 codes.
    Old R8s make E60 M5s seem like reliable daily drivers. Good luck!
    Just going to throw parts at it. Plugs, injectors, sensors, lambda, etc.

    The Alpina B7 was a miracle. Bought as a non-runner, fixed absolutely everything with a new OEM battery, sold for a very tidy profit So by the laws of car karma I am due a money pit.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited April 2022
    Quite entertaining seeing the right-wing media trying to spin Le Pen's thumping defeat to a relatively unpopular incumbent as a victory. We'd have presumably been subject to the same nonsense had Remain won the EU referendum.
  • OllyT said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
    That's a shame and all the best
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
    The majority of people working in hospitality in the UK were always UK born.

    The myth that all the people working at Pret were from the Czech Republic etc. comes from people who live in rather central London, where foreigners do dominate the low skilled, low pay jobs.

    The situation has not vastly changed in London, either, in terms of ratios of foreigners vs UK citizens in such jobs.

    The problem in the hospitality trade is a shortage of workers, meaning that those who are there are generally over worked.

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.
    The more I read stuff like this, the more I realise what a good employer my daughter was. She would meticulously work out shifts on a 2-week or monthly basis for her staff and notify everyone in plenty of time. Plus she averaged them out over a year so that people were not overworked in the summer and under-employed in winter - at least for the permanent staff.

    Bad / inconsiderate employers are a real pain. For everyone.
    A relative of mine started a building company years back.

    At the time, his policy of paying the right amount into back accounts, on time, and doing all the right paper work for the tax stuff was unheard of in the small domestic building industry.

    All permits and safety stuff up to spec as well.

    He actually had problems with people who couldn't believe that he wasn't pulling some kind of scam on his employees.

    I still remember the look on the face of one client - they asked about the plan. Instead of mumbling something, he produced a poster sized chart Gantt chart of the project. If he had pulled Excalibur out of his briefcase, there would have been less surprise.

    I think the issue is that for people with a certain level of education and experience, proper planning is a thing. For many, making it up as you go along is how it is.....
    "making it up as you go along"... that sounds a bit like our recent experience of UK international foreign, defence and security strategy.
    On the upside, it makes me feel more valuable as an employee.

    It seems that being able to plan, figure things out yourself and be aware of limits (such as the law*) puts you in a tiny minority.

    *Gravity is not just a good idea.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Heathener said:

    I was given a pretty rough ride on here a few months back for telling you that misogynism was rife in the Parliamentary Conservative Party. It was partly my fault for telling you I had a source and because at the time some of you thought I was a troll.

    I think this latest incident about Angela Rayner indicates that my source was not wrong.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-whips-looking-at-whether-they-know-who-made-sexist-rayner-remarks-12598530

    What is heartening, and I mean this genuinely, is that a significant number of Conservatives have come out strongly in condemnation, including the PM. It gives me hope. There is still decency to be found in the Conservative Party, just as there was still decency to be found inside Corbyn's toxic Labour Party.

    I think it's this same decency which will help rebuild the Conservative brand. Labour have almost achieved this in two years, so it is possible.

    I think my problem with the story is that due to cameras it should be provable - what we were saying about quality of journalism applies. It is clearly nonsense, however I still can't rule out that Rayner didn't joke about it in a bar. It probably would throw Johnson and she has said some pretty vile stuff in the past! It would only be a story of they got a recording of her joking or saying she would do it, then got video from the commons. Then it is something less worse than 20 things Boris has done in the last 12 months.
    It’s the sort of story that one could well imagine either Rayner or Johnson telling when half-sozzled in a Commons bar, it’s the fact it seems half plausible that makes it a story.

    Good to see both of them agree that such language isn’t particularly helpful though, and that the Daily Mail will be the Daily Mail.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
    The majority of people working in hospitality in the UK were always UK born.

    The myth that all the people working at Pret were from the Czech Republic etc. comes from people who live in rather central London, where foreigners do dominate the low skilled, low pay jobs.

    The situation has not vastly changed in London, either, in terms of ratios of foreigners vs UK citizens in such jobs.

    The problem in the hospitality trade is a shortage of workers, meaning that those who are there are generally over worked.

    EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....

    Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.
    I don't know the precise figures but in ALL major cities and large towns it's obvious to anyone who eats out and uses hotels a lot that many if not most of the staff were European. Even in Edinburgh and Glasgow. The only area I can think of where this doesn't SEEM to be the case is North Wales.
    https://www.london.gov.uk/about-us/londonassembly/meetings/documents/s67080/BHA KPMG Labour migration in the hospitality sector report.pdf

    2017 - "Between 12.3% and 23.7% of the UK hospitality sector workforce is currently made up of EU nationals."

    There is an effect, I've been told, where the staff up front are tailored to customers expectations - so in posh restaurants they make sure the sommelier has a foreign accent.

    A reverse example - a local butcher runs a massive commercial trade. He has all the pubs and restaurants for miles around using him as a supplier. All the English cheeky chaps work in the front shop, doing the banter with the customers. The crew at the back are nearly all Polish.....
    I'm happy for them getting an 11% rise but In the long run if they don't up their game to the standards that exist everywhere else in Europe-and existed in the UK pre Brexit in the cities and large towns- the whole industry will take a dive.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1518338557433323522
    Russian soldiers ransoming individual Ukrainian prisoners of war back to their relatives under threat of death. This is a war crime - and it's also exactly what Islamic State repeatedly did in Iraq and Syria.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Got our first cricket match this evening, very excited!

    Very cold too if the forecasters are right.
    I'm probably flogging this horse too dead, but we look to be in another one of those weeks that preview the UK's likely post-Gulf stream prevailing weather, rather cloudy, dry and cool, with slight winds from a NE direction.
    Spring and summer droughts are a consistent thing. I was away all last April and a large olive tree in a pot in the garden very nearly died of thirst - dropped all its leaves. In west Devon.
    It's the combination of everything I'm noting here, yes, dry and fine spells also bring drought - but it doesn't have to be particularly fine or with any degree of warmth - I note there is an odd shower off the east coast today where the sun breaks through.

    Here in the Pennines, our rather straggly olive has just gone out for the summer. Mrs Rata, who is of a southern disposition, would happily leave it indoors for another month!
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