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A BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,775
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    That would set a horrific precedent for the 21st century.

    That's the entirety of human history. The people with the weapons and the resolve to use them get what they want. Romans, Mongols, British, Americans, Birmingham City fans, etc.
    The Mongols wouldn't have got very far if those to the west had thermal imaging kit and heat-seeking missiles.

    The Russians still have a capability for long-range demolition. Scorched earth. Not much else. And even that is being shown up, at any level below thermo-nuclear. Because we have the weapons coupled with resolve to use them - to stop the Russians getting what they want. (When I say we, that's apart from Germany, obvs.)
    The critical factor is whether Putin cares about any of this. We really are at an extraordinary moment in history. He might not care and believe, as I think he may have said, that without Russia in its rightful position, there is no point in maintaining the globe as it is currently constituted. And then Kablooey.

    I have seen plenty of articles saying we must stop Putin otherwise where will he stop; and I have seen many saying it ain't werf it.

    Logically, if we are not prepared to risk nuclear war (and MAD) then Putin could take over all of Europe. So the question becomes are we prepared to do that.
    Risk is a continuum, not an either/or question.
    That is true. But at some stage you have to pick your point on it.
    I think you're right that the future is not predictable.
    But it's thus not at all clear whether realpolitik would mean following or abandoning our principles. In which situation I'd prefer to run the risk of following them.
    Not that strightforward. If you buy any form of utilitarianism (which looks like the only moral game in town) you have to do some quite difficult sums about aggregate human suffering in invasions vs nukings.
    I don't think utilitarian calculations really apply, since all the various courses of action might still end the same way.
    And there's no arbitrary end to the conflict knowable in advance which allows you to draw a line under any such sums.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2022
    I just realised Murdoch talktv launched today...

    https://watch.talk.tv/

    Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,289
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    💥💥💥 ITV News reporting Johnson may be as few as EIGHT letters away from a leadership challenge.

    Tallies with Sunday Times scoop that Sue Gray report is 'damning' and i report that 'One Nation' and 2019 intake MPs are now coordinating to oust him. ~AA

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-25/sue-gray-partygate-report-could-end-pm-as-no-confidence-letters-pile-up

    Johnson may be as few as ONE letter away from a leadership challenge, given we wouldn't know about it until he was ZERO letters away from a leadership challenge :wink:

    (Also, technically, X letters away from a confidence vote - X letters and a lost confidence vote away from, well not so much a leadership challenge as being booted out on his ear. There's no actualy mechanism for a leadership challenge now, is there? Either win the vote and safe for a year or lose it and booted out, not permitted to stand in the new leader election?)
    When Khan finally resigns the total needed goes down by 1 does it not?

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,826
    Projected national share by the BBC in 2018 was Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%, Others 14%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    Even though I know nobody really cares here is an update on my legs, but also to say thank you to @TOPPING and others who advised on physiotherapy (although I was always going to do this). I have booked sessions both at the hospital and my GP. Visited the hospital on Friday, GP tomorrow.

    I have been exercising my thighs throughout to compensate for the lack of exercise. I have been exercising my right calf (where 3 of the breaks are) since I have been able to. Both while lying down. I can do a straight lift of my legs for 5 1/2 minutes at a time, which I consider pretty good. I have nearly full mobility of my ankle now so I can really work my calf and the really good news is I have practically no muscle wastage (which I understand is pretty rare). I am still on crutches for 2 more weeks and then 2 more weeks in a boot so there is no swimming or cycle riding yet.

    Yesterday I walked (on crutches) the 100 metres to my compost heap and sat on it filling a wheelbarrow full of compost 3 times for the rhubarb (my wife has to push the wheelbarrow) and also cut up the remains of a hedge I took down prior to breaking my leg. The only down side is a very wet bottom.

    I agree with Topping re: swimming pool. Wouldn't the straight lift of the legs target your abs rather than your legs?

    Use those coloured elastic bands. Also consider a Bosu ball (get the original not a copy); I find that very useful:

    https://www.healthline.com/health/fitness-exercise/bosu-ball-moves-workout
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    JUST IN: Twitter is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement with Elon Musk as soon as today if negotiations go smoothly, according to a person with knowledge of the matter

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1518556240242253826

    I still can't see Elon's angle here. Why does he care about buying twitter. I don't really buy the whole free speech absolutism angle. Is there some huge business opportunity that is being slept on?
    I don't know, because Like everybody I cant see in to his hart, but I think Elon Musk's interest in Twitter, is principally and broadly the 'Free speech' angle, not a get rich quick plan. for a few reasons:

    1) there is no obvious way he makes money from this, based on the price he is paying for a bussness that has never made a lot of money and lost money last year, he would be better investing on almost anything else. if he has a secret plan to make a lot, there is no hint of what it could be.

    2) timing, Elon has known about the 'Babylon Bee' for some time and even done interviews, the way Twitter is treating them is both sinister and even though legal on a privet platform is non the less reminiscing of how the soviets did things especially in there early days. so it makes since he would have decided to act now.

    3) all of his businesses, are to some extent an expression of things he believes in, e.g. SpaceX become he wants to put a colony on the moon, Tesla, and sola city, because he cases about the environment. so its logical that he will invest in things he believes in.

    But we shall see.

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    That would set a horrific precedent for the 21st century.

    That's the entirety of human history. The people with the weapons and the resolve to use them get what they want. Romans, Mongols, British, Americans, Birmingham City fans, etc.
    The Mongols wouldn't have got very far if those to the west had thermal imaging kit and heat-seeking missiles.

    The Russians still have a capability for long-range demolition. Scorched earth. Not much else. And even that is being shown up, at any level below thermo-nuclear. Because we have the weapons coupled with resolve to use them - to stop the Russians getting what they want. (When I say we, that's apart from Germany, obvs.)
    The critical factor is whether Putin cares about any of this. We really are at an extraordinary moment in history. He might not care and believe, as I think he may have said, that without Russia in its rightful position, there is no point in maintaining the globe as it is currently constituted. And then Kablooey.

    I have seen plenty of articles saying we must stop Putin otherwise where will he stop; and I have seen many saying it ain't werf it.

    Logically, if we are not prepared to risk nuclear war (and MAD) then Putin could take over all of Europe. So the question becomes are we prepared to do that.
    Risk is a continuum, not an either/or question.
    That is true. But at some stage you have to pick your point on it.
    I think you're right that the future is not predictable.
    But it's thus not at all clear whether realpolitik would mean following or abandoning our principles. In which situation I'd prefer to run the risk of following them.
    Not that strightforward. If you buy any form of utilitarianism (which looks like the only moral game in town) you have to do some quite difficult sums about aggregate human suffering in invasions vs nukings.
    I don't think utilitarian calculations really apply, since all the various courses of action might still end the same way.
    And there's no arbitrary end to the conflict knowable in advance which allows you to draw a line under any such sums.
    True of all moral choices.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,932
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    Like you ever had any interest in Ukraine or Ukrainians, Mr “ who would give a fuck if they did?”.

    Fuck you Russian whore shit.
    Are you OK?
    Dura_Ace is, I believe, of the opinion that we should just give Putin what he wants in eastern Europe (I hope I am not misrepresenting him). This, whilst also housing some Ukrainian migrants. The former is an interesting position, although one I don't agree with as it is both immoral and desperately short-sighted.
    You've got dear old Vlad and those very, very close to him saying in terms that NATO arming Ukraine will lead in short order to tactical and then strategic nukes, and you've got NATO arming Ukraine. What is farsighted about that arrangement? Are we relying on a Dear old Vlad, bark worse than bite, just having his fun, sort of argument? because I'm not. I think it's about even money he celbrates 9 May with the first live-fire nuke detonation since 1945, and that worries me quite a lot.
    It worries a lot of us, but doesn’t mean we should be appeasing him or allowing him to claim anything that looks like a victory. He’s one of the most evil leaders we have seen since 1945, and the rest of the world needs to put him firmly back in his box.
    In principle that is obviously right, but metaphors aren't necessarily helpful. "Putting him back in his box" entails doing stuff which might in turn entail him nuking London. As you say He’s one of the most evil leaders we have seen since 1945, but he is also one of the best armed, and he occupies a position from which the holodomor was launched. Again,

    https://reaction.life/wartime-putins-russia-has-become-a-madhouse-threatening-the-world

    message as per url. Sounds hysterical, but it is alarmingly well sourced.
    Except that he’s not one of the best armed at all. His military has been shown to be a paper tiger bear, utterly incapable of facing modern Western weapons in the hands of those trained to use them.

    If we allow him anything that looks like a victory, he’ll rearm and be back for more. He needs to be as smashed as the Germans were in 1945.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,478
    Zut alors! I've lost money* on the French election, due to a spreadsheet cock-up. Thought, as posted a week or two back, that I was all green and up a few £10s (had bets on BF and Smarkets and a bookie, so it got a bit complicated when I was trading out). Worse, having corrected the spreadsheet cock-up I now see I was actually all green before I did the final trade that I thought was making me green and in fact cost me money.

    Never trust a scientist with Excel :open_mouth:

    * £4.53, so hardly a disaster, but I would have been up at least £40 without the cock-up.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,826

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Independent opinion polls were putting Le Pen on 49% only a few weeks ago. You can't blame the BBC for reporting on the potential consequences of that.
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    Like you ever had any interest in Ukraine or Ukrainians, Mr “ who would give a fuck if they did?”.

    Fuck you Russian whore shit.
    Are you OK?
    I’m good thanks Rog. A little sad to be ending my holiday, and spending my last couple of hours drinking beer and eating nuts in a dog park by Girona station. But the “Ace” has been really pissing me off. He seems to be held in reverence here by some for his military “expertise” or his lunatic driving or his anarchism, but many of his posts are indistinguishable from those of a Russian shill. He doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine (or the Baltics or Moldova). He may have Ukrainians living with him, but that’s clearly his wife’s decision.

    And I liked the fact that my abuse sounds similar to “fuck you russian warship”
    Dura_Ace and Topping are possibly the most conspicuous ex-military people on here. Both repeatedly called the Ukraine war very wrong, perhaps for understandable reasons.
    What did I call wrong?

    Signed Conspicuously Military TOPPING.
    Apologies if I am wrong, but back in February weren't you rather negative about Ukraine's chances of resisting the mighty Russian bear?
    Back in February I was wary of people pronouncing on how it was "obviously" going (ie using pictures from Twitter) on Day 2 of the invasion.

    I still am; I'm not sure anyone, not an apparently well-regarded twitter user, nor PJHQ, knows what is going on.

    Frustrating for all of us who want to comment conclusively but probably a more sensible approach.
    My *impression* was that you were rather more negative than that.

    However, I have no problem with stating categorically that the whole adventure so far has gone disastrously for Russia. They lost a vast amount of treasure on their abandoned northern attack towards Kiev, and the sanctions will be increasingly hurting them. Worse, their military's poor performance is an embarrassment for them. They can hide that from their population for some time, but not from external eyes.

    With more uncertainty; whilst the eastern and southern fronts are still active and could give them a 'win', I wouldn't bet on it given their recent performance.
    We shall see. I have no difficulty in believing that Putin expected to march into Ukraine to be welcomed by garland-throwing maidens if not the odd clatter of small arms fire, quickly extinguished.

    But that is by the by.

    The Russians are engaged upon a large scale military operations and, having not followed the Russian order of battle as closely as some on here, am in no position to say what constitutes the "vast amount of treasure" that they have lost, nor what they might do from here.

    What I can say is that Putin has learned from the West that might is right and is exercising that might right now.

    It brings me back to the NFZs that many on here were (still are?) enthusiastically promoting. Are we going to put ourselves in danger, nuclear war danger, for the sake of Ukraine. My guess is not. As NATO has said. Are, however, the edges becoming blurred as to how much NATO is assisting Ukraine, and what Putin might do next on the borders of NATO? Absolutely.

    Only a fool would make any kind of assessment, still less forecast under such conditions.
    "Putin has learned from the West that might is right" - Farcical Western narcissism and self-hatred. 🤣

    Russia has plenty of its own "might is right" history without needing the West for any lessons on that, and if he had looked at the West's history he might have realised that might is not right and that "might" can be defeated.

    You are speaking here with the self-certainty of HYUFD. Might didn't win Afghanistan for the USA, nor Vietnam for them either. Might is not winning Ukraine for Russia.

    Putin may be putting us in danger of nuclear war but that is not a reason to pander to Putin and let him seize the world while we watch slackjawed from the sidelines. Life isn't without risk and just as we needed to take risks getting out of lockdown rather than waiting until life was riskfree before meeting each other face to face, similarly we can't wait until the risk of nuclear war is eliminated before we send support to Ukraine.
    And that would be your policy. To arm Ukraine and send troops. Which currently NATO is not doing for some absurd reason. Sounds like as has been mentioned above, you should write to your MP to petition for UK troops to be sent to Ukraine.

    Or who was it who posted links to the various International Brigades that you yourself could go and join. Every little helps.
    Where did I say send troops?

    My policy would be to do exactly what the West is doing: To arm Ukraine.

    Ukraine can fight on our behalf by proxy which is the same as the Cold War was fought for half a century before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    We have no reason to send troops to Ukraine as that would be a direct conflict which isn't required, but what we do have good reason to do is send munitions to Ukraine for them to use themselves which is fair game and is precisely like how the USA armed the Afghanis versus the USSR or how the USSR armed the Vietcong versus the USA.
    So what is the big debate then? You are happy with what is happening. At no stage did I say that what is happening shouldn't be happening.

    @MarqueeMark said that if we let Putin get away with "it" (not sure how defined) it would set a terrible precedent. I said that that precedent had been set in 2003 in Iraq.

    You disagreed with that saying "we had good reason". And in so doing you have let yourself down as an analytical observer. Because right now there are plenty of Russians in Russia saying "we have good reason". The key should be to distance yourself from the emotional and try to understand the dynamics from as much an objective perspective as possible.

    IMO.
    The big debate is that some people are insinuating we shouldn't be arming Ukraine because to do so risks nuclear war.

    I disagree, we are doing the right thing and we need to continue with it until Russia loses the war and is pushed back out of Ukraine.
    And NY, London and Paris start glowing in the dark.
    If it happens, it happens, but its a risk we need to be prepared to take.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
    Back in the 1970s the upshot was called a wage-price spiral. Trotskyist Trade Union Shop Stewards loved it. Mrs Thatcher, not so much.

    Fine by me, fill yer boots, but it gets paid for at the other end in the inflation figures.
    Like this, you mean?

    Real wages: my regular chart updated for today's inflation figures. https://t.co/D5Vxj87K8H

    Or, as the article we started with concludes,

    But Indeed's Mr Kennedy says that pay rises resulting from hiring shortages will not bring about the "high-wage, high-skill" economy pursued by the government.

    "Firms are facing a range of non-labour cost increases so their ability to offer big wage increases is limited," he says. "Without sustained increases in productivity, any wage increases are likely to be passed onto the consumer."
    Yes, there need to be sustained increases in productivity. That means replacing minimum wage employees with capital equipment, in industries such as hospitality. A small chain-branded coffee shop doesn’t need three ‘baristas’, when a machine can make the coffee just as well, constistently, and at a lower cost. Replace three £10/hr workers with one £15/hr worker and three £10k machines - pays for itself in a year or less.
    You haven't encountered most press button coffee machines, then.

    They break down frequently, require lots of cleaning and are generally a pain in the ass. Part of the problem is that coffee grounds are ideal for damaging machinery - fine, sticky, abrasive.....

    The design where the coffee grounds are external to the majority of the machine is done that way for a reason.
    My Nespresso makes nice coffee - cost €49 and wortks like a dream - 4 years and counting!! #barista España :smiley:
    Nespresso is a classic in the business plan genre - cheap machine (sold at very low margin), expensive consumables you are locked into.

    The actual coffee in a double espresso costs a fraction of a penny.

    How much are you paying per capsule :-)

    I use a stove top mocha maker (in stainless steel) - one of them (I have varying sizes) is 25 years old.....
    Oh of course - but I don't consume as much coffee as tea - and this is so easy. Plus it's always fresh - a lot of palaver to keep beans or grounds fresh once opened. Also when making small quantities the difference is often marginal. Indeed my overall preference here in Spain is to have my coffee at a beachside bar overlooking the tranquil Mediterranean with some pastries , water, orange juice along with excellent coffee for just €1.60 the lot!
    Beans actually stay quite fresh if you don't leave them in the open air - even the hopper in a coffee grinder is fine. I grind on demand....

    The other nice thing is that with a stainless mocha maker you can stick it in the dish washer from time to time to nuke all the accumulated stuff out. People using aluminium with coffee....
    Hmmm. Morning all.

    The "fraction of a penny" for the coffee (typically 10g) in a shot is a bit optimistic; at a trade level coffee beans cost £7-15 per kilo for good quality. So more like 7-10p, which is still low enough to allow purchase of top quality coffee. My local tonne-a-week bean roaster start their beans at £11 per kilo wholesale.

    Nespresso will end up (correctly) as a green pariah; there are excellent alternatives available to capsules which don't have to be thrown away or recycled via a special infrastructure which only catches a % of the Nespresso cartridges, such as E.S.E paper capsules. Nespresso fails by Ockham. Enjoy it whilst it lasts :smile: .

    Nespresso will at some time be selected as 'hate of the month' by one of the green groups.

    Being in the process of helping open a cafe with a trade bean to cup machine, I can say that they are expensive but are treated as a craft product. A new one for 100-150 cups a day might be £4-5k at the lower end plus a £40 a month maintenance agreement plus (round here) water filters. Quite durprised to find that Franks, who made my sink, make them.
    You can tell we're all losing interest in Ukraine when coffee dick measuring economics is making the running.
    Like you ever had any interest in Ukraine or Ukrainians, Mr “ who would give a fuck if they did?”.

    Fuck you Russian whore shit.
    Are you OK?
    Dura_Ace is, I believe, of the opinion that we should just give Putin what he wants in eastern Europe (I hope I am not misrepresenting him). This, whilst also housing some Ukrainian migrants. The former is an interesting position, although one I don't agree with as it is both immoral and desperately short-sighted.
    You've got dear old Vlad and those very, very close to him saying in terms that NATO arming Ukraine will lead in short order to tactical and then strategic nukes, and you've got NATO arming Ukraine. What is farsighted about that arrangement? Are we relying on a Dear old Vlad, bark worse than bite, just having his fun, sort of argument? because I'm not. I think it's about even money he celbrates 9 May with the first live-fire nuke detonation since 1945, and that worries me quite a lot.
    It worries a lot of us, but doesn’t mean we should be appeasing him or allowing him to claim anything that looks like a victory. He’s one of the most evil leaders we have seen since 1945, and the rest of the world needs to put him firmly back in his box.
    In principle that is obviously right, but metaphors aren't necessarily helpful. "Putting him back in his box" entails doing stuff which might in turn entail him nuking London. As you say He’s one of the most evil leaders we have seen since 1945, but he is also one of the best armed, and he occupies a position from which the holodomor was launched. Again,

    https://reaction.life/wartime-putins-russia-has-become-a-madhouse-threatening-the-world

    message as per url. Sounds hysterical, but it is alarmingly well sourced.
    Except that he’s not one of the best armed at all. His military has been shown to be a paper tiger bear, utterly incapable of facing modern Western weapons in the hands of those trained to use them.

    If we allow him anything that looks like a victory, he’ll rearm and be back for more. He needs to be as smashed as the Germans were in 1945.
    The Germans in 1945 were not nuked up. If they had been are you in any doubt Hitler would have pressed all the buttons?

    I am not inclined to read across from conventional to nuclear anyway. Completely different systems, and we don't know where in the Russian military the problems are and whether they affect the nuclear arm.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    That would set a horrific precedent for the 21st century.

    That's the entirety of human history. The people with the weapons and the resolve to use them get what they want. Romans, Mongols, British, Americans, Birmingham City fans, etc.
    The Mongols wouldn't have got very far if those to the west had thermal imaging kit and heat-seeking missiles.

    The Russians still have a capability for long-range demolition. Scorched earth. Not much else. And even that is being shown up, at any level below thermo-nuclear. Because we have the weapons coupled with resolve to use them - to stop the Russians getting what they want. (When I say we, that's apart from Germany, obvs.)
    The critical factor is whether Putin cares about any of this. We really are at an extraordinary moment in history. He might not care and believe, as I think he may have said, that without Russia in its rightful position, there is no point in maintaining the globe as it is currently constituted. And then Kablooey.

    I have seen plenty of articles saying we must stop Putin otherwise where will he stop; and I have seen many saying it ain't werf it.

    Logically, if we are not prepared to risk nuclear war (and MAD) then Putin could take over all of Europe. So the question becomes are we prepared to do that.
    Risk is a continuum, not an either/or question.
    That is true. But at some stage you have to pick your point on it.
    I think you're right that the future is not predictable.
    But it's thus not at all clear whether realpolitik would mean following or abandoning our principles. In which situation I'd prefer to run the risk of following them.
    @TheKinster outlined two rather unpalatable (and, he believes, very remotely possible) scenarios.

    Under such circumstances everything is up in the air.
    To flesh out -

    In a situation fraught with danger and uncertainty I think 2 things are becoming clear. The US will not go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The US will go to war with Russia if Russia attacks a NATO country.

    This isn't logical as such but I think it's the settled and accepted position. Reason being that it works for both sides.

    Therefore, Putin gets to do whatever it takes to try and create a scenario in Ukraine that he can call a victory. And, quid pro quo, however this turns out he doesn't escalate westwards.

    This is the implicit bargain imo.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,932

    JUST IN: Twitter is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement with Elon Musk as soon as today if negotiations go smoothly, according to a person with knowledge of the matter

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1518556240242253826

    LOL, sounds like Musk has won. This could get rather interesting.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,948
    Time to boycott twitter if the Trump loving Elon Musk buys it .

    Under the alleged free speech mantra heaven only knows just how dreadful the platform will become .
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    OllyT said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
    That's a shame and all the best
    Thanks and best wishes to you and your family. Although we differ on views sometimes you are always unfailingly courteous. At my age life's to short to bother with abuse from Ishmael and his ilk.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917

    OllyT said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
    You Could just stay and not say stuff about what people believe from their getting position
    So I can't give my opinion without the threat of a torrent of abuse. Thanks but no thanks.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    nico679 said:

    Time to boycott twitter if the Trump loving Elon Musk buys it .

    Under the alleged free speech mantra heaven only knows just how dreadful the platform will become .

    I dislike Trump, but I really rather like Elon Musk.

    PB is pretty free speech, and it's not so bad.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
    You Could just stay and not say stuff about what people believe from their getting position
    So I can't give my opinion without the threat of a torrent of abuse. Thanks but no thanks.
    The majority here would like to hear your opinion. @IshmaelZ really does have to grow up. (I wouldn't excuse myself from getting a bit drunk and angry on occasion. Apologies have sometimes been necessary.)
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Taz said:

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    FPT, thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your comment re the bullying. TBH (1) it was confined to @Anabobazina (with a little help from a 'fact checker') and (2) I was laughing this morning at how many posts they spewed out late on a Sunday night. The reverse ferret on denying they had been mocking on Virginia and then, when presented with the post, turning round and saying they were right all along was also funny (I say 'they' because I have no idea whether it's a man or woman).

    Still, my view of such people is that it is best to hope that they get the help they so obviously need with what seems like multiple issues.

    I sort of concur with your last sentence but the vile personal abuse I received from a poster last night crossed the line for me. Sometimes it's best to just walk away.
    Just ignore them, I do. They only seek to argue for the hell of it. In my case for the heinous crime of saying the police weren’t doing much to tackle the insulate Britain mob. They quickly resort to the sort of crap thrown at you yesterday. Ignore. Your experience here will be so much better for not engaging with them.
    I fully understand that Mike & Robert don't have the resources to moderate comments so I am not criticising them in any way but I'll be sticking to the moderated sites from now on. No doubt I will get a deluge of abuse from Ishmael for being a snowflake but I'm getting on a bit and can't be bothered putting up with it.
    You Could just stay and not say stuff about what people believe from their getting position
    So I can't give my opinion without the threat of a torrent of abuse. Thanks but no thanks.
    The majority here would like to hear your opinion. @IshmaelZ really does have to grow up. (I wouldn't excuse myself from getting a bit drunk and angry on occasion. Apologies have sometimes been necessary.)
    Shit, world's longest flounce about to enter its second day.

    The guy wasn't expressing an opinion, he was advancing a nasty little mealy-mouthed slander about other site members being secret Le Pen supporters and lying about it, he hadn't the balls to name them, and when called out he doubled down by claiming to have "touched a nerve." First time round I am prepared to accept that he is too stupid to realise how rude he is being, but the "touched a nerve" bit touched, as you might say, a nerve. What are people doing here who don't understand that backing an outcome is not the same as desiring it (except for the winnings, natch)?
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    China is in such a mess over covid. This latest Beijing lockdown is awful.

    Even I am coming to see now that we have to learn to live with this thing and thanks to vaccines we can.

    (I still think we should be mask wearing indoors in public but that's moot).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61212757

    The critical thing with the Omicron outbreak was getting a very high level of vaccination for the elderly with high quality vaccines. Especially with boosters.

    While COVID is not harmless to the young, it is orders of magnitude more dangerous for the older groups.

    For the very oldest, it managed case->fatality number (pre vaccination) above 30%. Which puts it in the Black Death column, for them.

    Those countries that did vaccinate the elderly well, did well in this outbreak.
    My wife and I had our fourth yesterday (Moderna) and felt quite light headed and jaded for the rest of the day. Indeed my wife took paracetamol for the pain in her arm. We are still a bit jaded this morning but we are so grateful that we have received it
    Read your first 8 words and was going to congratulate you heartily on the late blessing. Well done getting the jab anyway.
    I mischievously text my children yesterday with the words ' we have just had our fourth' as we do have three children, though they are 57, 51 and 47
    Moderna is an unusual choice of name.
    Beats Pfizer and Zeneca but I wouldn't mind being called Astra!
    Astra after the car on whose backseat... :wink:
    Ahem, Oxford AstraZeneca if you don’t mind.

    So it could have been the Vauxhall or the Morris.
    I had a cat called Austin when I was younger. We named her kitten Morris (despite it being female)
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well done CHB.
    Long term anti depressant use is not always great.

    Which is why it is contraindicated and an off label use
    It is a lot more complicated than that, current APA thinking is

    "If you have ongoing major depressive disorder, or you have had three or more depressive episodes, the APA recommends treatment for at least a few years. Doctors may also recommend longer treatment when the risk of relapse is high."

    https://www.webmd.com/depression/features/antidepressants

    There's a lorra people out there who face the lifetime choice of medication or inevitable relapse. So three cheers for CHB's current wellbeing, but this is preeminently not a subject to accept any advice from lay persons on the internet, me included
    Fully agree on three cheers fir @CorrectHorseBattery and not taking advice from randons in the internet (including you)

    But MDD is not all of depression … for most mother’s little helper shouldn’t be a crutch
This discussion has been closed.