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A BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited May 2022 in General
imageA BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

As the betting chart shows the markets are still unclear as to whether they have a view on Johnson departing this year. If I was to bet here which I have not done my money will be still on him keeping his job.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 2022
    I agree with Mike on this, more shortly.

    A happy result for my bank balance yesterday if slightly shy of a stellar success. Because on Saturday I cashed out half of my 60%+ bet and then won on my main stake at 55-59.99%, overall I doubled my money. Not too shabby for a 6 day investment.

    That's my first bet since Chesham & Amersham which was thanks to Mike's tip.

    I'm not sure where the value currently lies in the UK. I will bide my time.

    xx
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 2022
    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    BUNGLER SPY
    US spy puts UK’s military secrets ONLINE so he can work from home
    ...
    The Sun was alerted to the data’s presence online and found it in seconds from a Google search.

    We alerted Whitehall, they told the US who scrambled to remove all files.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18361173/spy-military-secrets-online/

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    BUNGLER SPY
    US spy puts UK’s military secrets ONLINE so he can work from home
    ...
    The Sun was alerted to the data’s presence online and found it in seconds from a Google search.

    We alerted Whitehall, they told the US who scrambled to remove all files.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18361173/spy-military-secrets-online/

    How can someone so stupid become a spy in the first place.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Andy_JS said:

    BUNGLER SPY
    US spy puts UK’s military secrets ONLINE so he can work from home
    ...
    The Sun was alerted to the data’s presence online and found it in seconds from a Google search.

    We alerted Whitehall, they told the US who scrambled to remove all files.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18361173/spy-military-secrets-online/

    How can someone so stupid become a spy in the first place.
    Other questions raised are why his employer did not have proper, secure, WFH arrangements (does yours?) and why our secret squirrels are not routinely searching for this sort of content online.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    As Foxy reported on the previous thread, there are a couple of big fires in Bryansk, Russia. An oil refinery/depot and arsenal appeared to have caught afire.

    The former is important, as apparently the main pipeline providing oil to Europe goes through it. That might force the oil issue for those European governments who are being a little tardy...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Good and bad news about the war:

    Good: Russia has used up about 70 percent of its high-precision missiles. (*)
    Bad: they can independently produce them.

    It also looks as though Ukraine is targeting the people who make the missiles...

    Given the above, and the fires overnight, I do think my earlier impression that the previous fires in Russia were unrelated directly to the war was wrong. Someone - probably Ukraine - has groups working deep within Russia. Or even Russian people themselves doing it, as the Belarussian railwaymen had been doing.

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3466423-russia-has-used-up-about-70-of-its-highprecision-missiles-since-warstart-bellingcat.html

    (*) This figure should be taken with caution. However it smells as though it might be possible, given how many they have been using.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    As Foxy reported on the previous thread, there are a couple of big fires in Bryansk, Russia. An oil refinery/depot and arsenal appeared to have caught afire.

    The former is important, as apparently the main pipeline providing oil to Europe goes through it. That might force the oil issue for those European governments who are being a little tardy...

    https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1518429900738281473?s=21&t=-YR3bmyijJAkkgQdLLHY8g
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The new US ambassador to Ukraine is Bridget Brink.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    Good and bad news about the war:

    Good: Russia has used up about 70 percent of its high-precision missiles. (*)
    Bad: they can independently produce them.

    It also looks as though Ukraine is targeting the people who make the missiles...

    Given the above, and the fires overnight, I do think my earlier impression that the previous fires in Russia were unrelated directly to the war was wrong. Someone - probably Ukraine - has groups working deep within Russia. Or even Russian people themselves doing it, as the Belarussian railwaymen had been doing.

    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3466423-russia-has-used-up-about-70-of-its-highprecision-missiles-since-warstart-bellingcat.html

    (*) This figure should be taken with caution. However it smells as though it might be possible, given how many they have been using.

    Helicopter raids innit
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Happy Anzac Day.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    given BJ's travails, I am waiting for another high profile bust-up with Brussels or some sort of ratcheting up of UK support to Ukraine, whatever it will be it needs to be pretty special or he's in for a torrid fortnight before the Locals..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Nigelb said:

    The new US ambassador to Ukraine is Bridget Brink.

    That's where we are heading, right enough.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1518420462816346113?s=21&t=-YR3bmyijJAkkgQdLLHY8g

    ‘Any second now beautiful mushrooms will blossom and burst’
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    given BJ's travails, I am waiting for another high profile bust-up with Brussels or some sort of ratcheting up of UK support to Ukraine, whatever it will be it needs to be pretty special or he's in for a torrid fortnight before the Locals..

    Bright, sunny morning again. Bus trip in prospect; first for two years but only to the local hospital. To my considerable annoyance and discomfort I've developed Carpal Tunnel Syndrome and holding things such as coffee cups and pint glasses is becoming tricky!

    On topic, I think I'm right in believing that there's some sort of unnecessary row being fomented by our Government over N. Ireland.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    given BJ's travails, I am waiting for another high profile bust-up with Brussels or some sort of ratcheting up of UK support to Ukraine, whatever it will be it needs to be pretty special or he's in for a torrid fortnight before the Locals..

    Bright, sunny morning again. Bus trip in prospect; first for two years but only to the local hospital. To my considerable annoyance and discomfort I've developed Carpal Tunnel Syndrome and holding things such as coffee cups and pint glasses is becoming tricky!

    On topic, I think I'm right in believing that there's some sort of unnecessary row being fomented by our Government over N. Ireland.
    Good morning OKC. I am sure you are correct in your belief.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited April 2022
    Does anyone else have a weird experience where you're using the same app, Google Maps, for understanding the war in a foreign country as you are for getting lunch so you're constantly doing these odd context switches? Then occasionally you check a route with one of the war zone locations still in there so you end up checking how long the lady in the katsu sandwich shop would have to travel if she wanted to bomb a Russian oil storage facility ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Does anyone else have a weird experience where you're using the same app, Google Maps, for understanding the war in a foreign country as you are for getting lunch so you're constantly doing these odd context switches? Then occasionally you check a route with one of the war zone locations still in there so you end up checking how long the lady in the katsu sandwich shop would have to travel if she wanted to bomb a Russian oil storage facility ?

    Is this a confession ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited April 2022
    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    Does anyone else have a weird experience where you're using the same app, Google Maps, for understanding the war in a foreign country as you are for getting lunch so you're constantly doing these odd context switches? Then occasionally you check a route with one of the war zone locations still in there so you end up checking how long the lady in the katsu sandwich shop would have to travel if she wanted to bomb a Russian oil storage facility ?

    Hope the lady in the katsu sandwich shop has anti-missile measures. We know how spiteful Putin can be. Would hate him to have another of his toddler tantrums....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    May resigned after the 2019 local elections and the Tories loss of 1,440 council seats as if she had not she would have lost a second VONC later that year. Similarly next week's local election results will determine if Johnson remains Tory leader and PM or not
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Yep you can add too the one last night 'How LePen ran Macron closer than last time'

    Bizarre
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Re locals: Labour has redelivered the same leaflets but there is still nothing from the other parties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Labour to replace non doms tax status

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61195119
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    Re locals: Labour has redelivered the same leaflets but there is still nothing from the other parties.

    Where are you?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 2022
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting. They have regular moments of phenomenal volte-face. It's not uncommon to find one day they are eviscerating Boris Johnson only to find the next they are praising him.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
  • The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The last is a good question, only beating a fascist by 17% is not a great result. To have over 40% of the country willing to vote for the 'far right', or the 'far left', is concerning.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Yep you can add too the one last night 'How LePen ran Macron closer than last time'

    Bizarre
    The British press have these kind of mental templates, there are only like a couple of dozen possible stories they ever write. I assume it's driven by the readers, they want to hear a familiar story and they won't be impressed if you try to make them learn a new one.

    They have a template for "rise of a European fascist", and they don't have one for "defeat of a European fascist". So if a European fascist is defeated and they can't just avoid talking about it they have to somehow squeeze it into the "rise" frame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Yep you can add too the one last night 'How LePen ran Macron closer than last time'

    Bizarre
    However the exit poll also had 56% of French voters wanting Macron's En Marche party to lose its majority in the legislative elections in June too.

    The result was very much a vote to keep Le Pen out of the Elysee, not an overwhelming endorsement of President Macron

    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1518396147273846785?s=20&t=FaQr9bKbErfWX2Yo5rOhKw
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Re locals: Labour has redelivered the same leaflets but there is still nothing from the other parties.

    Where are you?
    A few stops down the Central Line from you. My guess is Labour is using volunteers and the Conservatives will send theirs through the post some time this week.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    Agreed. And I am really sorry to hear that: must have been awful.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Given the above, and the fires overnight, I do think my earlier impression that the previous fires in Russia were unrelated directly to the war was wrong. Someone - probably Ukraine - has groups working deep within Russia. Or even Russian people themselves doing it, as the Belarussian railwaymen had been doing.

    Three options, some less likely than others.

    1. Ukrainian GRU/SF
    2. Russian faux drapeaux
    3. Accidents

    Too many for 3. Not quite dramatic enough for 2. so...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The last is a good question, only beating a fascist by 17% is not a great result. To have over 40% of the country willing to vote for the 'far right', or the 'far left', is concerning.
    And the polls showed 10% undecided just before the election...

    While the result wasn't close (and note the turnout was higher than any of our general elections since 1992), it is alarming how many votes a far right, Putin friendly candidate can gain just by soft pedalling her rhetoric.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    Re locals: Labour has redelivered the same leaflets but there is still nothing from the other parties.

    Where are you?
    A few stops down the Central Line from you. My guess is Labour is using volunteers and the Conservatives will send theirs through the post some time this week.
    Probably. Though if you are in a Labour held seat given current polling it is unlikely to be a Conservative target. Much as Labour will not do much in Conservative safe wards either
  • Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    And as one of the tweets below notes, it was reported a couple of days back that one in twelve MPs (including bother cabinet and shadow cabinet members) have outstanding allegations of sexual harassment against them.

    The won't be exclusively men harassing women, or indeed all be upheld, but the numbers indicate a serious problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    "They share the same view, they're colleagues in government."

    @skynewsniall questions Technology Minister Chris Philip on strikingly similar tweets published by the PM and Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries over the weekend.

    https://news.sky.com/

    📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1518479020408639488/video/1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Dura_Ace said:



    Given the above, and the fires overnight, I do think my earlier impression that the previous fires in Russia were unrelated directly to the war was wrong. Someone - probably Ukraine - has groups working deep within Russia. Or even Russian people themselves doing it, as the Belarussian railwaymen had been doing.

    Three options, some less likely than others.

    1. Ukrainian GRU/SF
    2. Russian faux drapeaux
    3. Accidents

    Too many for 3. Not quite dramatic enough for 2. so...
    If this video is true, it looks like either missile or plane attack. Apparently both targets just about in range of Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile.

    https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1518466556535136261

    Could it be that Russian anti-air capabilities have not improved much such Mathias Rust's little holiday jaunt?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Heathener said:

    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.

    They are reporting a senior official saying it's so damning that he may have no choice but to resign.

    That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    HYUFD said:

    Re locals: Labour has redelivered the same leaflets but there is still nothing from the other parties.

    Where are you?
    A few stops down the Central Line from you. My guess is Labour is using volunteers and the Conservatives will send theirs through the post some time this week.
    Could they do that and stay within the expenses limit?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Yep you can add too the one last night 'How LePen ran Macron closer than last time'

    Bizarre
    The British press have these kind of mental templates, there are only like a couple of dozen possible stories they ever write. I assume it's driven by the readers, they want to hear a familiar story and they won't be impressed if you try to make them learn a new one.

    They have a template for "rise of a European fascist", and they don't have one for "defeat of a European fascist". So if a European fascist is defeated and they can't just avoid talking about it they have to somehow squeeze it into the "rise" frame.
    The writing up of the French locals last year was case in point.

    Pre election it was about how Le Pen's party was poised to make sweeping gains. Post election (after she had got a kicking at the polls) - crickets. They couldn't even twist the result into anything positive for her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    I'm sorry to hear that.
    Did they get any redress ?
  • Nigelb said:

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The last is a good question, only beating a fascist by 17% is not a great result. To have over 40% of the country willing to vote for the 'far right', or the 'far left', is concerning.
    And the polls showed 10% undecided just before the election...

    While the result wasn't close (and note the turnout was higher than any of our general elections since 1992), it is alarming how many votes a far right, Putin friendly candidate can gain just by soft pedalling her rhetoric.
    This is the danger this country has been in for a while. The Farage wing of politics has been demonising foreigners for years, the Tories have demonised groups like single mothers and welfare claimants and teachers. The Corbyn wing of politics made British Jews a fair target and promoted just terrorism.

    So whilst we don't have a Le Pen winning 40%+ of the vote we do have Farage and Corbyn and a government who attacks the rule of law and the judiciary and parliament and openly lies and thinks persecution of any group can be justified for its own narrow political goals.

    We aren't as openly crude as the French, but the idea that we are above them whilst we have *that* in government is laughable. And the most recent alternative was Jezbollah...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.

    "better" in this context means won't break the law or do something else incredibly stupid, continuously.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The performative nastiness of the Rwandan plan is a distraction from Britain’s sensibly open post-Brexit immigration regime.

    Or: hooray - Brexit meant higher immigration.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-good-migration-news-ministers-try-to-hide-8qh88sq9b
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463

    Heathener said:

    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.

    They are reporting a senior official saying it's so damning that he may have no choice but to resign.

    That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
    I cant recall who the leading "would do better than T May" was back in 2018-9..... genuinely who was the leading light?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited April 2022
    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707

    Heathener said:

    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.

    They are reporting a senior official saying it's so damning that he may have no choice but to resign.

    That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
    The practical problem is that it's not enough to find someone who could do better, they have to either achieve a thorough stitch-up of the parliamentary party or somehow *get their members to vote for that person*.
  • Heathener said:

    So on topic, The Times are reporting that the full Sue Grey report is 'so damming' that Johnson will have to resign:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm

    I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.

    They are reporting a senior official saying it's so damning that he may have no choice but to resign.

    That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
    I cant recall who the leading "would do better than T May" was back in 2018-9..... genuinely who was the leading light?
    Boris.

    He was leading the polls as to who would do better, and he did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    I'm sorry to hear that.
    Did they get any redress ?
    Of course not. And the journalists responsible - who were either criminally negligent or downright immoral - suffered no censure from the Guardian.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
  • Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Scott_xP said:

    The performative nastiness of the Rwandan plan is a distraction from Britain’s sensibly open post-Brexit immigration regime.

    Or: hooray - Brexit meant higher immigration.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-good-migration-news-ministers-try-to-hide-8qh88sq9b

    LOL. The Times app server is playing up but this error message from Cloudfront (their CDN) suggests The Times has not set it up correctly so they see these messages and the public gets something more banal.

    503 ERROR
    The request could not be satisfied.
    The Lambda function associated with the CloudFront distribution is invalid or doesn't have the required permissions. We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error. Try again later, or contact the app or website owner.
    If you provide content to customers through CloudFront, you can find steps to troubleshoot and help prevent this error by reviewing the CloudFront documentation.
    Generated by cloudfront (CloudFront)
    Request ID: F_MmsD9_NWMYSFA5LSQ5YLeEGbswE6k4y_mjG-topQg78ERTLLI4mQ==
  • HYUFD said:

    May resigned after the 2019 local elections and the Tories loss of 1,440 council seats as if she had not she would have lost a second VONC later that year. Similarly next week's local election results will determine if Johnson remains Tory leader and PM or not

    They may well add to the pressure, but if the report in today's Times about the Sue Gray report is accurate then my prediction Boris will be out of office by the 31st May looks likely
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about everything else.
    Any time the BBC discuss the outdoors or the Highlands. And anything to do with my area of work.

    What's weird is I will immediately revert to trusting it by the time I read the next article.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Heathener said:

    I agree with Mike on this, more shortly.

    A happy result for my bank balance yesterday if slightly shy of a stellar success. Because on Saturday I cashed out half of my 60%+ bet and then won on my main stake at 55-59.99%, overall I doubled my money. Not too shabby for a 6 day investment.

    That's my first bet since Chesham & Amersham which was thanks to Mike's tip.

    I'm not sure where the value currently lies in the UK. I will bide my time.

    xx

    Chesham & Amersham was very much a one off. From my perspective the LDs had a 95% plus chance of taking the seat and at one stage you could get 20/1 on Betfair. Tory punters had been mesmerised by Hartlepool two months earlier and thought that nothing could stop the party.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570
    OT but damn. Tested positive this morning.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Stuart Rose was right in claiming wages would go up if Britain left the EU.

    Pilloried for it at the time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    mwadams said:

    OT but damn. Tested positive this morning.

    I hope you have a speedy recovery.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited April 2022

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Its never been "no" benefits, its that the very few benefits are completely dwarfed by the negatives. Even in that piece it manages to flag them. Better than inflation pay rises for the workers who are in a sector like hospitality is great in the immediate term for those workers - but terrible for their industry.

    Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
    Of course you will always seek a downside but to be fair, to those workers who have enjoyed above inflation (even at today's figure) wage increases is good news
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Heathener said:

    I agree with Mike on this, more shortly.

    A happy result for my bank balance yesterday if slightly shy of a stellar success. Because on Saturday I cashed out half of my 60%+ bet and then won on my main stake at 55-59.99%, overall I doubled my money. Not too shabby for a 6 day investment.

    That's my first bet since Chesham & Amersham which was thanks to Mike's tip.

    I'm not sure where the value currently lies in the UK. I will bide my time.

    xx

    Chesham & Amersham was very much a one off. From my perspective the LDs had a 95% plus chance of taking the seat and at one stage you could get 20/1 on Betfair. Tory punters had been mesmerised by Hartlepool two months earlier and thought that nothing could stop the party.
    Good morning, Mike. Are you on the mend ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    You're related to Jason Bourne???
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
    I think this is true of almost all journalism in all fields. I get the same frustration reading anything about tax.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
    I've actually had the opposite impression much of the time: they dumb down technical aspects (they have to...), but generally get things pretty much correct. I can think of a couple of howlers that had me spitting out my coffee - one years ago over digital radio, another on chip manufacturing (implying that anything other than the cutting-edge in fabs is useless, whereas older fabs can be *very* useful.)

    Although perhaps I don't know what I'm wrong about. ;)

    IMV the technology quarterly they do is very good, although obviously dumbed down. Where the Economist shines though, is in its coverage of events and things that just do not get into the mainstream media.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    You're related to Jason Bourne???
    No. Bond.

    Brooke Bond and Basildon Bond.

    I have walked through Bourne End on a few occasions, and also past Bournemouth. ;)

    (Both surprisingly pleasant walks IMO.)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
    Yes, that's my experience too, both of the Economist and most media - they get the general facts but then go down a rabbit-hole with misleading details to suit whatever the theme of their story is. The root of the problem is the doctrine that you need to decide the story in advance, then go and look for people who will buttress it.

    My family had one bad experience with the Mail on Sunday after I'd criticised a Tory MP for a racist joke - a journalist seeking to dig dirt first went to our former elderly landlord and aggressively demanded that he tell them where I was living (he told them to get lost) and then tracked it down and doorstepped my wife with questions obviously designed to get a damning quote - "This isn't much of a house, are you embarrassed by it? Do you have another property tucked away somewhere?" (She curtly declined to comment, often the best defence as it's too boring to report.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about everything else.
    Any time the BBC discuss the outdoors or the Highlands. And anything to do with my area of work.

    What's weird is I will immediately revert to trusting it by the time I read the next article.
    I have rarely read a newspaper article which has been 100% accurate, when I have known details of the story. Important information is either wrong, omitted, or dumbed down to the point of falsity.

    In one case, an article about me had my 'bad' foot moved from left to right (admittedly a trivial detail); in another the Derby Evening Telegraph had a fire occurring on the wrong side of the city, when it could be seen from their offices...

    One exception is when the journalist emailed me the story, asking me for any corrections or anything I would like to add. Kudos to him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited April 2022

    BUNGLER SPY
    US spy puts UK’s military secrets ONLINE so he can work from home
    ...
    The Sun was alerted to the data’s presence online and found it in seconds from a Google search.

    We alerted Whitehall, they told the US who scrambled to remove all files.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18361173/spy-military-secrets-online/

    Scott_xP said:

    The performative nastiness of the Rwandan plan is a distraction from Britain’s sensibly open post-Brexit immigration regime.

    Or: hooray - Brexit meant higher immigration.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-good-migration-news-ministers-try-to-hide-8qh88sq9b

    LOL. The Times app server is playing up but this error message from Cloudfront (their CDN) suggests The Times has not set it up correctly so they see these messages and the public gets something more banal.

    503 ERROR
    The request could not be satisfied.
    The Lambda function associated with the CloudFront distribution is invalid or doesn't have the required permissions. We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error. Try again later, or contact the app or website owner.
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    Speaking of misconfigurations, Deliveroo has just told me I need photo-ID to buy a bacon sandwich.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186
    All this speculation about a confidence vote. But might it not be that Johnson goes in the autumn when the Privileges Committee reports? Or is to being assumed that even if the Committee finds him in contempt of Parliament, he'll get all the Con MPs whipped to reject what they find/recommend -- a la Owen Paterson?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Stuart Rose was right in claiming wages would go up if Britain left the EU.

    Pilloried for it at the time.
    try telling that to someone in the Armed Forces currently in the snow on the border in Estonia... wages for soldiers have fallen by about 22% since 2010.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited April 2022
    alednam said:

    All this speculation about a confidence vote. But might it not be that Johnson goes in the autumn when the Privileges Committee reports? Or is to being assumed that even if the Committee finds him in contempt of Parliament, he'll get all the Con MPs whipped to reject what they find/recommend -- a la Owen Paterson?

    My guess is that May's locals results will not be as bad as speculated and he will survive that as all the backbenchers swerve to start saying 'we must wait for the committee to report'. That will drift well into summer and by then it will be too late to hold a contest to complete by the Autumn conference season and they will come up with something else.

    I'm with Mike, he will be leader at next GE.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited April 2022
    alednam said:

    All this speculation about a confidence vote. But might it not be that Johnson goes in the autumn when the Privileges Committee reports? Or is to being assumed that even if the Committee finds him in contempt of Parliament, he'll get all the Con MPs whipped to reject what they find/recommend -- a la Owen Paterson?

    Boris's biggest danger is the next few weeks with the May locals, further FPNs, publication of Sue Gray's report, possible photographs of parties he attended, and the continuing cost of living crisis

    If he survives all that then I expect him to survive the Privileges report
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited April 2022
    Telegraph have an analysis of whether TalkTV will be a success and take on the BBC:

    Interestingly...

    "Analysis of readers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times found that they watch more BBC News per day than the rest of the population and slightly less GB News per day,"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/talktv-goes-live-inside-rupert-murdochs-assault-bbc/


    My summary: It remains moot whether there is an appetite in UK for opinionated ranting all day long.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Stuart Rose was right in claiming wages would go up if Britain left the EU.

    Pilloried for it at the time.
    try telling that to someone in the Armed Forces currently in the snow on the border in Estonia... wages for soldiers have fallen by about 22% since 2010.
    Related to leaving the EU - how? Would that European Army have been giving them a big wage uplift? I'm thinking not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Heathener said:

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    The BBC, a journey.

    Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.

    Yep you can add too the one last night 'How LePen ran Macron closer than last time'

    Bizarre
    People really wanted an exciting contest I guess. But it really was done and dusted months ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    Telegraph have an analysis of whether TalkTV will be a success and take on the BBC:

    Interestingly...

    "Analysis of readers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times found that they watch more BBC News per day than the rest of the population and slightly less GB News per day,"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/talktv-goes-live-inside-rupert-murdochs-assault-bbc/


    My summary: It remains moot whether there is an appetite in UK for opinionated ranting all day long.

    Times readers are mainly centrist Remainers. Mail or Express readers might be more relevant
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Stuart Rose was right in claiming wages would go up if Britain left the EU.

    Pilloried for it at the time.
    try telling that to someone in the Armed Forces currently in the snow on the border in Estonia... wages for soldiers have fallen by about 22% since 2010.
    Overall wages have barely risen since 2010. That's a pretty significant headwind for the Tories going into 2024.
  • Telegraph have an analysis of whether TalkTV will be a success and take on the BBC:

    Interestingly...

    "Analysis of readers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times found that they watch more BBC News per day than the rest of the population and slightly less GB News per day,"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/talktv-goes-live-inside-rupert-murdochs-assault-bbc/


    My summary: It remains moot whether there is an appetite in UK for opinionated ranting all day long.

    Does that include PB by any chance !!!!!!!
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    rkrkrk said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    Stuart Rose was right in claiming wages would go up if Britain left the EU.

    Pilloried for it at the time.
    try telling that to someone in the Armed Forces currently in the snow on the border in Estonia... wages for soldiers have fallen by about 22% since 2010.
    Overall wages have barely risen since 2010. That's a pretty significant headwind for the Tories going into 2024.
    and the size of the Regular British Army (esp tanks and Infantry) have fallen by an even bigger element.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    alednam said:

    All this speculation about a confidence vote. But might it not be that Johnson goes in the autumn when the Privileges Committee reports? Or is to being assumed that even if the Committee finds him in contempt of Parliament, he'll get all the Con MPs whipped to reject what they find/recommend -- a la Owen Paterson?

    Boris's biggest danger is the next few weeks with the May locals, further FPNs, publication of Sue Gray's report, possible photographs of parties he attended, and the continuing cost of living crisis

    If he survives all that then I expect him to survive the Privileges report
    If Boris survives then I expect him to retire on his own terms in 2023 so he can bow out as a winner. If the Times mole is right that the Sue Gray report will be devastating then presumably there are photos of Boris doing the conga, and Number 10 will pressure Gray to exclude pictures.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
    Yes, that's my experience too, both of the Economist and most media - they get the general facts but then go down a rabbit-hole with misleading details to suit whatever the theme of their story is. The root of the problem is the doctrine that you need to decide the story in advance, then go and look for people who will buttress it.

    My family had one bad experience with the Mail on Sunday after I'd criticised a Tory MP for a racist joke - a journalist seeking to dig dirt first went to our former elderly landlord and aggressively demanded that he tell them where I was living (he told them to get lost) and then tracked it down and doorstepped my wife with questions obviously designed to get a damning quote - "This isn't much of a house, are you embarrassed by it? Do you have another property tucked away somewhere?" (She curtly declined to comment, often the best defence as it's too boring to report.)
    About ~ 10 years ago, I was peripherally involved in a murder inquiry that was then of great interest to the press.

    By peripherally involved, I mean I happened to know the victim and the alleged killer and I knew some of the facts around the case.

    The reporting -- by almost everyone, but especially the print media -- was riddled with basic factual inaccuracies.

    It disabused me of any notion that there is integrity, or even basic fact-checking, in UK press journalism.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited April 2022

    Telegraph have an analysis of whether TalkTV will be a success and take on the BBC:

    Interestingly...

    "Analysis of readers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times found that they watch more BBC News per day than the rest of the population and slightly less GB News per day,"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/talktv-goes-live-inside-rupert-murdochs-assault-bbc/


    My summary: It remains moot whether there is an appetite in UK for opinionated ranting all day long.

    Excellent, we have to avoid a descent into the toxic US political media culture. The BBC is a precious part of that. The second most trust news source in the US after PBS.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    There are many Tory MPs that could do a better job than Johnson as PM .

    The excuse that Bozo can’t be replaced is laughable and is another in the long line of pathetic excuses wheeled out by the spineless backbench Tories .

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    LOL, Russian air defences proving to be about as reliable as their tanks this morning.

    https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-april-a-closer-look-at-the-area-on-nasas-firms-shows-two

    Looks like the Ukranians are going on the counter-offensive, taking out more military targets close to the border but in Russia itself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about subjects I don't know about.
    The Economist is written by people with an average age of about 25, following a very tight style guide. Once you know this, it becomes obvious when reading it.
  • Roger said:

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    But have you tried using the hospitality industry recently.? Now that so many Europeans have been replaced by English workers in cafes restaurants bars and hotels it's become across the board crap.

    One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
    Covid has had a huge effect on the hospitality industry but using cheap EU labour was always immoral and at least this is a positive sign of the benefit of leaving the EU
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 do not feel there is any more he should be doing as PM on this - but other Tories are taking it further:

    https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ


    She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
    An extraordinary story and rare to see cross-party condemnation.

    The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting.

    They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
    The Guardian placed a member of my extended family in danger. So I see the Guardian as the 'worst' of all the 'news'papers - particularly as they pretend to take a moral high ground.

    All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
    The media is mediated - processed by biased humans. So all outlets are potentially lying and misleading. Even a photo or a video of an event can be presented out of context.

    I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
    We can look at the funny side now. I won't go into details, but sometimes life can be perverse, with either good or bad results.

    Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
    I find the Economist is very readable and persuasive and convincing-seeming, but the problem is that any time it's been writing about something I know about, it's turned out to be complete and utter garbage. So obviously I'm kind of suspicious about all the authoritative, reasonable-sounding things it's saying about everything else.
    Any time the BBC discuss the outdoors or the Highlands. And anything to do with my area of work.

    What's weird is I will immediately revert to trusting it by the time I read the next article.
    I have rarely read a newspaper article which has been 100% accurate, when I have known details of the story. Important information is either wrong, omitted, or dumbed down to the point of falsity.

    In one case, an article about me had my 'bad' foot moved from left to right (admittedly a trivial detail); in another the Derby Evening Telegraph had a fire occurring on the wrong side of the city, when it could be seen from their offices...

    One exception is when the journalist emailed me the story, asking me for any corrections or anything I would like to add. Kudos to him.
    One paper reported on some analysis I had done and added a 0 in a national headline.

    This caused significant chaos.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851
    edited April 2022

    Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    It may be a benefit for hospitality workers, to be fair, but it hasn't solved the staffing problems there. Higher wages usually means higher prices to the customer, hence inflation. We all then suffer, higher prices and still a lack of service in many areas. We still have pubs on reduced hours and many items out of stock in retail.
  • nico679 said:

    There are many Tory MPs that could do a better job than Johnson as PM .

    The excuse that Bozo can’t be replaced is laughable and is another in the long line of pathetic excuses wheeled out by the spineless backbench Tories .

    I have argued that excuse is not an excuse.

    Nobody is irreplaceable even Boris
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    I see that British Airways’ attempt to use the pandemic to do a “P&O” on their cabin crew a couple of years ago, is now backfiring on them spectacularly as demand returns.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/
  • Good morning

    We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument

    What's the impact of Brexit?

    Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.

    Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667

    It may be a benefit for hospitality workers, to be fair, but it hasn't solved the staffing problems there. Higher wages usually means higher prices to the customer, hence inflation. We all then suffer, higher prices and still a lack of service in many areas. We still have pubs on reduced hours and many items out of stock in retail.
    So your argument is to use cheap labour so you can have cheaper meals and services
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    mwadams said:

    OT but damn. Tested positive this morning.

    Hope you feel ok. I'm on roughly day 5 of symptoms (1 after positive PCR), feel tired and a cough has finally arrived.

    My garmin watch (Fenix 6) has a deeply inaccurate oxygen measure but I'm using it to wind up Doctor girlfriend. Currently 94, apparently. "He's just as irritating as normal".
This discussion has been closed.