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A BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
A BoJo 2022 exit still not an evens chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com
As the betting chart shows the markets are still unclear as to whether they have a view on Johnson departing this year. If I was to bet here which I have not done my money will be still on him keeping his job.
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A happy result for my bank balance yesterday if slightly shy of a stellar success. Because on Saturday I cashed out half of my 60%+ bet and then won on my main stake at 55-59.99%, overall I doubled my money. Not too shabby for a 6 day investment.
That's my first bet since Chesham & Amersham which was thanks to Mike's tip.
I'm not sure where the value currently lies in the UK. I will bide my time.
xx
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-gray-report-so-damning-boris-johnson-will-have-to-quit-9r372zdmm
I think we underestimate at our betting peril this man's capacity to sacrifice everything and everyone in order to save his own skin.
US spy puts UK’s military secrets ONLINE so he can work from home
...
The Sun was alerted to the data’s presence online and found it in seconds from a Google search.
We alerted Whitehall, they told the US who scrambled to remove all files.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18361173/spy-military-secrets-online/
The former is important, as apparently the main pipeline providing oil to Europe goes through it. That might force the oil issue for those European governments who are being a little tardy...
Good: Russia has used up about 70 percent of its high-precision missiles. (*)
Bad: they can independently produce them.
It also looks as though Ukraine is targeting the people who make the missiles...
Given the above, and the fires overnight, I do think my earlier impression that the previous fires in Russia were unrelated directly to the war was wrong. Someone - probably Ukraine - has groups working deep within Russia. Or even Russian people themselves doing it, as the Belarussian railwaymen had been doing.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3466423-russia-has-used-up-about-70-of-its-highprecision-missiles-since-warstart-bellingcat.html
(*) This figure should be taken with caution. However it smells as though it might be possible, given how many they have been using.
‘Any second now beautiful mushrooms will blossom and burst’
On topic, I think I'm right in believing that there's some sort of unnecessary row being fomented by our Government over N. Ireland.
https://twitter.com/carolinenokes/status/1518211704559128577?s=20&t=Zz6dBOfgjOJ5TbKXIwuJJQ
She’d be better served trying to find the dinosaurs in her own party who fed this story to the press rather than targetting the journalist as a means of deflection.
Why Le Pen might win the presidency>why Le Pen might run Macron very close>why did Macron only win by 17% pts.
Bizarre
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61195119
The Mail and Mail on Sunday are awful. I'd like to think I would say that even if they were on the Left. It's their salacious tittle-tattle, mean-spiritedness and sometimes downright nastiness that is so revolting. They have regular moments of phenomenal volte-face. It's not uncommon to find one day they are eviscerating Boris Johnson only to find the next they are praising him.
They're like Guido Fawkes without the humour or intelligence.
They have a template for "rise of a European fascist", and they don't have one for "defeat of a European fascist". So if a European fascist is defeated and they can't just avoid talking about it they have to somehow squeeze it into the "rise" frame.
The result was very much a vote to keep Le Pen out of the Elysee, not an overwhelming endorsement of President Macron
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1518396147273846785?s=20&t=FaQr9bKbErfWX2Yo5rOhKw
All newspapers are, or can be, sh*t: when they put their political viewpoint, income, or just their friendships ahead of giving their readers information.
1. Ukrainian GRU/SF
2. Russian faux drapeaux
3. Accidents
Too many for 3. Not quite dramatic enough for 2. so...
While the result wasn't close (and note the turnout was higher than any of our general elections since 1992), it is alarming how many votes a far right, Putin friendly candidate can gain just by soft pedalling her rhetoric.
I can only imagine the horror you went through. There is though no correlation between what the Grauniad did to you and the Wail's expose on Vagina-wielding Labour politicians written to save a liar and a crook. Both are inexcusable independently.
The won't be exclusively men harassing women, or indeed all be upheld, but the numbers indicate a serious problem.
@skynewsniall questions Technology Minister Chris Philip on strikingly similar tweets published by the PM and Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries over the weekend.
https://news.sky.com/
📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1518479020408639488/video/1
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1518466556535136261
Could it be that Russian anti-air capabilities have not improved much such Mathias Rust's little holiday jaunt?
That's quite different. Boris only goes when there's a clear alternative who'd do better.
Pre election it was about how Le Pen's party was poised to make sweeping gains. Post election (after she had got a kicking at the polls) - crickets. They couldn't even twist the result into anything positive for her.
Did they get any redress ?
So whilst we don't have a Le Pen winning 40%+ of the vote we do have Farage and Corbyn and a government who attacks the rule of law and the judiciary and parliament and openly lies and thinks persecution of any group can be justified for its own narrow political goals.
We aren't as openly crude as the French, but the idea that we are above them whilst we have *that* in government is laughable. And the most recent alternative was Jezbollah...
Or: hooray - Brexit meant higher immigration.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-good-migration-news-ministers-try-to-hide-8qh88sq9b
We hear almost on a daily basis that brexit has brought no benefits, but this report this morning does counter that argument
What's the impact of Brexit?
Brexit is another key reason for hiring squeezes in sectors like hospitality and driving.
Jobs that relied heavily on EU workers have seen wages increase by 11.7% since the start of 2019, around twice as much as jobs that did not.
https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667
Actually, I'd argue that the Economist is excellent. It too has biases that are quite easy to see, but it seems to report in a relatively non-sensationalised manner.
He was leading the polls as to who would do better, and he did.
Why? Because it shows a catastrophic lack of staff: https://beertoday.co.uk/2022/02/16/hospitality-staff-shortage/ The reason why some industries had an influx of the evil forrin wasn't because crooked employers wanted cheap labour, it started because there was a labour shortage as not enough Brits wanted to work in a bar or in a chicken processing factory or wiping someone's mother's bottom etc etc. And despite the inflation busting wage rises have Brits flooded into these sectors in anything like the numbers required? No.
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What's weird is I will immediately revert to trusting it by the time I read the next article.
Pilloried for it at the time.
Although perhaps I don't know what I'm wrong about.
IMV the technology quarterly they do is very good, although obviously dumbed down. Where the Economist shines though, is in its coverage of events and things that just do not get into the mainstream media.
Brooke Bond and Basildon Bond.
I have walked through Bourne End on a few occasions, and also past Bournemouth.
(Both surprisingly pleasant walks IMO.)
My family had one bad experience with the Mail on Sunday after I'd criticised a Tory MP for a racist joke - a journalist seeking to dig dirt first went to our former elderly landlord and aggressively demanded that he tell them where I was living (he told them to get lost) and then tracked it down and doorstepped my wife with questions obviously designed to get a damning quote - "This isn't much of a house, are you embarrassed by it? Do you have another property tucked away somewhere?" (She curtly declined to comment, often the best defence as it's too boring to report.)
In one case, an article about me had my 'bad' foot moved from left to right (admittedly a trivial detail); in another the Derby Evening Telegraph had a fire occurring on the wrong side of the city, when it could be seen from their offices...
One exception is when the journalist emailed me the story, asking me for any corrections or anything I would like to add. Kudos to him.
I'm with Mike, he will be leader at next GE.
If he survives all that then I expect him to survive the Privileges report
Interestingly...
"Analysis of readers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times found that they watch more BBC News per day than the rest of the population and slightly less GB News per day,"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/talktv-goes-live-inside-rupert-murdochs-assault-bbc/
My summary: It remains moot whether there is an appetite in UK for opinionated ranting all day long.
By peripherally involved, I mean I happened to know the victim and the alleged killer and I knew some of the facts around the case.
The reporting -- by almost everyone, but especially the print media -- was riddled with basic factual inaccuracies.
It disabused me of any notion that there is integrity, or even basic fact-checking, in UK press journalism.
One thing even the biggest eurosceptics will have appreciated with free movement was that the hospitality industry improved dramatically. Well it's now taken a nosedive.
The excuse that Bozo can’t be replaced is laughable and is another in the long line of pathetic excuses wheeled out by the spineless backbench Tories .
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-april-a-closer-look-at-the-area-on-nasas-firms-shows-two
Looks like the Ukranians are going on the counter-offensive, taking out more military targets close to the border but in Russia itself.
This caused significant chaos.
The myth that all the people working at Pret were from the Czech Republic etc. comes from people who live in rather central London, where foreigners do dominate the low skilled, low pay jobs.
The situation has not vastly changed in London, either, in terms of ratios of foreigners vs UK citizens in such jobs.
The problem in the hospitality trade is a shortage of workers, meaning that those who are there are generally over worked.
EDIT: There was an amusing piece on Radio 4 the other day. A chap running a gastro pub had lost all his staff in the lock down. They were all doing other jobs now. He described his workplace conditions - mainly his use of no-notice shifts. Literally ring people the day before to tell them they were/weren't working.....
Short of actually flogging his employees.... it was astonishing to me that they hadn't all left before.
Nobody is irreplaceable even Boris
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/24/british-airways-base-cabin-crew-madrid/
My garmin watch (Fenix 6) has a deeply inaccurate oxygen measure but I'm using it to wind up Doctor girlfriend. Currently 94, apparently. "He's just as irritating as normal".