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Sunak’s favourability drops a colossal 26% in a month – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,351
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    The Russians claim this is not a war. It'll be interesting to see what the Turks do about this, and any potential Russian reaction.
    Really, the "law" is whatever Turkey says it is as it's up to them to enforce it (or not).
    Erdogan would fit right in with the Johnson government...
  • Options
    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    Nigelb said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
    But, they will argue, if every Rwandan bound refugee discourages another 10 from making the crossing, the scheme pays for itself. Given our complete inability to get failed asylum seekers on planes to anywhere I seriously doubt the efficacy of this scheme.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    Isn't it the government of the day which has a duty to provide alternatives to a policy which is not working ?
    This stunt is not such an alternative.
  • Options
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,351

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Will the government have the fortitude to stick with it after a refugee gets raped or has the shit beaten out of them in Rwanda?

    The government will calculate that the demographics it is seeking to get on board will not care.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    The government wants a legal challenge to its Rwanda plan so it can lump opposition parties together with out-of-touch, elitist judges and lefty human rights lawyers. The cynicism and willingness to exploit human misery for political gain is sickening and entirely predictable.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    Or maybe the Rwanda policy is just a bad idea designed to dog whistle a certain type of Tory. If the government where firing refugees into space, I suspect you might still try to turn this on to Labour. Things can just be plain wrong and opposed.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia

    Given Russia's snivelling requests to China for equipment, the provision of some old kit from Iran via Iraq, and their use of thousands of foreign soldiers, I might suggest that Russia can go f*** itself.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    Isn't it the government of the day which has a duty to provide alternatives to a policy which is not working ?
    This stunt is not such an alternative.
    I think this is exactly the response to your question

    Whether it works or not time will tell, but I would assume it would have a dramatic effect on reducing those crossing and putting their lives at risk

    Let's wait and see if it gets off the ground, so to speak
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    As a matter of interest, did Ricardo's comparative advantage theory feature in your 2000 studies?

  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    Don’t be silly
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    edited April 2022
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
    But, they will argue, if every Rwandan bound refugee discourages another 10 from making the crossing, the scheme pays for itself. Given our complete inability to get failed asylum seekers on planes to anywhere I seriously doubt the efficacy of this scheme.
    Before you can argue the cost efficiency of a scheme, you have to show that it works.
    For now all there is to discuss is the costs.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    RobD said:

    If Rishi was an NFT


    Maybe he should look into tulips?
    What is lost in this is that the original purchase was in ETH. Although worth millions at the time he bought it, he will have more than likely have bought his ETH for pennies back in the day. So paying 1630ETH in todays month might be millions, but there are a load of people who own 100,000s of ETH, so its a rounding error on their portoflio. Also, they have already cashed out more money than they need for their rest of the lives, the rest is just play money.

    Its the people buying ETH to buy NFTs now that are going to lose their shirts.

    Edit - The guy who bought it also runs a blockchain company, which gets crowbarred into loads of articles about this. I suspect its as much advertising / promotion as anything else.
    Every single one of these high-dollar NFT sales, seems to be either to someone closely associated with the seller, or someone running an NFT or crypto business. It’s a classic artificial inflating of the market, and we occasionally get to see the true value of these things with auctions such as the above - with no seller lined up in advance to buy it, an NFT of Jack’s first Tweet is worth peanuts.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    Or maybe the Rwanda policy is just a bad idea designed to dog whistle a certain type of Tory. If the government where firing refugees into space, I suspect you might still try to turn this on to Labour. Things can just be plain wrong and opposed.
    I am not turning this on Labour but if you oppose then you do need to address a better solution
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,863
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    it’s always intriguing when a cabinet minister stonewalls for several days over legitimate questions of public interest: on this occasion it’s health secretary Sajid Javid

    - thread

    “It’s not entirely clear the basis of his non-domicile status,” said Dan Neidle, former head of tax at Clifford Chance, the law firm. “On the face of it, it seems a bit racier than Mrs Sunak’s claim.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/647eb171-1cf3-4561-b85d-55d499300367
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    Or maybe the Rwanda policy is just a bad idea designed to dog whistle a certain type of Tory. If the government where firing refugees into space, I suspect you might still try to turn this on to Labour. Things can just be plain wrong and opposed.
    I am not turning this on Labour but if you oppose then you do need to address a better solution
    Qed
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2022

    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia

    Everyone has spent the last few months arming Ukraine, how is this any different?

    They’re not sending Americans to fire the weapons, at least not Americans we will ever know about.

    Edit: Of course, it could well be that “We are training Ukranian soldiers on this stuff in the US”, is code for “We are measuring a few dozen SEALs for Ukranian military uniforms”, but that’s the risk they take. They just need to make sure they don’t get captured!
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    Farooq said:

    The Russians have confirmed that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet has been seriously damaged after its weapons detonated, but they haven’t said what caused it.

    Same ship that appears in the "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" postage stamp (and my avatar).

    Zelenskyy... you sunk my battleship
    Cruiser… but then I guess you were always a fan of wee small things
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Thanks.

    It'll be interesting to discover what happened, if we ever do. If it was a single missile hit with a 150kg warhead, or even two, then they must have been 'lucky' hits to destroy the vessel. Either that or Russian fire-control procedures are poor.

    It depends what state of material readiness the ship was in. It's not practical or possible to keep a ship at General Quarters/Action Stations/Condition Zebra 24 hours a day, every day.

    Sheffield (about half the size of the Moskva but still big) was destroyed by a single 150kg warhead from an AM39 and was at a lower state of readiness. It might have survived if it were at Action Stations.
    My 'favourite' (not the right word, really), was the Japanese aircraft carrier Taiho, which sunk six hours after one torpedo hit, due to poor damage-control procedures that created a fuel-air mix through much of the ship.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_aircraft_carrier_Taihō
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia

    Everyone has spent the last few months arming Ukraine, how is this any different?

    They’re not sending Americans to fire the weapons, at least not Americans we will ever know about.
    For the benefit of doubt I fully support the US - NATO arming Ukraine with the most sophisticated weaponry available
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
    Apparently some do.
    Big_G is already assuming it will work, and if it doesn't, it's the opposition's fault.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    Very much so. It was from 1979 that Mrs Thatcher had a vision of an economy based on financial services, consumerism and housing speculation. Prior postwar governments saw manufacturing as a keystone of the UK economy.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,049
    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,863
    Scott_xP said:

    it’s always intriguing when a cabinet minister stonewalls for several days over legitimate questions of public interest: on this occasion it’s health secretary Sajid Javid

    - thread

    “It’s not entirely clear the basis of his non-domicile status,” said Dan Neidle, former head of tax at Clifford Chance, the law firm. “On the face of it, it seems a bit racier than Mrs Sunak’s claim.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/647eb171-1cf3-4561-b85d-55d499300367

    I think those who are born and schooled here should not be entitled to non dom status, but also should be able to get their citizenship for free rather than it being so expensive many at the poorer end do not bother until it is too late.

    As usual those with wealth can game the intent of the system, and the poorest are marginalised.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Font war.
    Russia still has Comic Sans, which seems appropriate.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514482422255173635
    Monotype Imaging blocked access to the fonts Times New Roman, Arial, Verdana, Tahoma, Helvetica in their font catalog for Russian users

    🇷🇺Media says the fonts have been unavailable since at least Apr 11. The company didn't comment on the matter yet.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    This government is government by dog whistle. It’s policies on Channel 4, Rwanda, Brexit are all designed to divide us for narrow party advantage. Sad.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Why is it unethical?
  • Options
    As a flagship I wonder how big the Moskva’s flag is/was..

    I saw this on Facebook the other day; the flag from one of Spanish ships beaten at Trafalgar

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    edited April 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia

    Everyone has spent the last few months arming Ukraine, how is this any different?

    They’re not sending Americans to fire the weapons, at least not Americans we will ever know about.

    Edit: Of course, it could well be that “We are training Ukranian soldiers on this stuff in the US”, is code for “We are measuring a few dozen SEALs for Ukranian military uniforms”, but that’s the risk they take. They just need to make sure they don’t get captured!
    As well as weapons, supplied intelligence is a key Ukranian strength. A lot of information seems to be very accurate and real time. Ukraine knew to expect the VDV at Hostomel for example. Ukranian military leadership and tactics seem very good to. I wouldnt put that all down to Western training either, Ukrane has thought hard how as David to defeat Goliath.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,560
    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    As a headline, it makes lots of sense.

    As an enacted policy, it almost certainly doesn't. Seriously, what's the mechanism that makes a difference on the ground? The UK is already about as performatively mean as it can be.

    But chasing fights to chase headlines, especially when it's in a jam, is what this government does
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the other thing that really gets my goat is that this notion of flying people down to the equator comes months after our leaders promised to tackle causes of climate change.

    Tell me, how are you planning to get to your 'green' Thai bolthole?

    I can recommend a lady who has rowed and cycled around the world; she might be able to give you some good advice.
    Sedan chairs are environmentally friends and provide employment for the poor
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Nigelb said:

    Font war.
    Russia still has Comic Sans, which seems appropriate.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514482422255173635
    Monotype Imaging blocked access to the fonts Times New Roman, Arial, Verdana, Tahoma, Helvetica in their font catalog for Russian users

    🇷🇺Media says the fonts have been unavailable since at least Apr 11. The company didn't comment on the matter yet.

    An ex-colleague of mine would take restricted access to fonts and typefaces as a casus belli.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,419
    edited April 2022

    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.

    It was bad enough in east Kent yesterday. What seemed like the entire Kent police force is posted at checkpoints at every principal road junction to stop lorries searching out ways to jump the queue on the M20 using the back roads. Meanwhile the mass of lorries on the M20 are stuck there for 24 hours plus with no food or facilities.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,351
    edited April 2022
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    As a matter of interest, did Ricardo's comparative advantage theory feature in your 2000 studies?

    Relative advantage and absolute advantage did. Can't remember hearing anything about that specific theory or that my lecturer used the words 'comparative advantage.'
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,560

    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Why is it unethical?
    It's unethical for the government to waste money.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,222
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.

    It was bad enough in east Kent yesterday. What seemed like the entire Kent police force is posted at checkpoints at every principal road junction to stop lorries searching out ways to jump the queue using the back roads.
    Live in East Kent. It’s not quite that bad. Really it’s not. Hate Brexit, hate Johnson, but it’s really much the same as when the French dockers used to go on strike. Hopefully the Coastguard will let the Pride of Britain sail soon which will help immeasurably.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
    Apparently some do.
    Big_G is already assuming it will work, and if it doesn't, it's the opposition's fault.
    You are twisting my words

    I am not assuming it will work and it is fair to ask opponents what would you do

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    If Rishi was an NFT


    Maybe he should look into tulips?
    What is lost in this is that the original purchase was in ETH. Although worth millions at the time he bought it, he will have more than likely have bought his ETH for pennies back in the day. So paying 1630ETH in todays month might be millions, but there are a load of people who own 100,000s of ETH, so its a rounding error on their portoflio. Also, they have already cashed out more money than they need for their rest of the lives, the rest is just play money.

    Its the people buying ETH to buy NFTs now that are going to lose their shirts.

    Edit - The guy who bought it also runs a blockchain company, which gets crowbarred into loads of articles about this. I suspect its as much advertising / promotion as anything else.
    Every single one of these high-dollar NFT sales, seems to be either to someone closely associated with the seller, or someone running an NFT or crypto business. It’s a classic artificial inflating of the market, and we occasionally get to see the true value of these things with auctions such as the above - with no seller lined up in advance to buy it, an NFT of Jack’s first Tweet is worth peanuts.
    At what point do we see a crypto scammer promoting an NFT of tulip bulbs?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,141
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    Very much so. It was from 1979 that Mrs Thatcher had a vision of an economy based on financial services, consumerism and housing speculation. Prior postwar governments saw manufacturing as a keystone of the UK economy.
    We are now focused on hi tech manufacturing not mass manufacturing. If it was not for Thatcher's reforms ending Union domination of industry and mass strikes we would not even have that
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,141
    edited April 2022
    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    The aim I would imagine is to put off refugees from crossing the Channel in the first place if they then end up in Rwanda for processing. Only the most genuine ones fleeing persecution for their lives or a genuine war zone would then still try
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.

    It was bad enough in east Kent yesterday. What seemed like the entire Kent police force is posted at checkpoints at every principal road junction to stop lorries searching out ways to jump the queue on the M20 using the back roads. Meanwhile the mass of lorries on the M20 are stuck there for 24 hours plus with no food or facilities.
    I am off to the Isle of Wight for Easter, hopefully the Red Funnel behaving.
  • Options
    Rwanda:
    1. Laughable desperation. Coats more per person than The Ritz not what "remove the forrin" want. Won't happen, if nothing else we need to have caught people to deport them. And the legal boats so often land and people dissipate
    2. Absurd sneering. Apparently red wall voters are going to say "I'm poorer, I can't pay my bills, he lied to me and made me feel stupid for doing the right thing but Good Old Boris has sent pakis to Rwanda and I'm worried about chicks with dicks so I'll still vote for comedy parmo pisshead Matt Vickers
    3. So we point at how desperate and unworkable it is and go back to the topic of the day. The Crime Minister. And how moral degerates like Matt Vickers and HY are happy to defend lying liars and the lies they tell to debase our political system
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    That’s not correct, AIUI

    Turkey can (and has) closed the Straits to military vessels as they have deemed the Russian invasion of Ukraine to be a state of war. They just can’t prevent a ship (military or otherwise) return to its home base.

    Back in February I think that a few Russian ships tried to passage and Turkey turned 3 away (while letting some through)
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,049
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.

    It was bad enough in east Kent yesterday. What seemed like the entire Kent police force is posted at checkpoints at every principal road junction to stop lorries searching out ways to jump the queue on the M20 using the back roads. Meanwhile the mass of lorries on the M20 are stuck there for 24 hours plus with no food or facilities.
    We are, or maybe were, rather dependent upon advice, to go to a family gathering in West Kent on Sunday. I really don't want to be sitting at the Dartford Crossing for ages both ways; we expect delays going North at 6pm or so.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,049

    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Why is it unethical?
    It's unethical for the government to waste money.
    When did we last have an ethical government, then?
  • Options
    NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    As a matter of interest, did Ricardo's comparative advantage theory feature in your 2000 studies?

    Relative advantage and absolute advantage did. Can't remember hearing anything about that specific theory or that my lecturer used the words 'comparative advantage.'
    Comparative advantage is less relevant if there are political / military / environmental / public health barriers to trade. These are all rising, as we all know.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    I am curious as to how you propose that sneering bullying traitor will actually send anyone to Rwanda. As the Nigel has highlighted with his videos, most of the boat people make it across safely and disappear into the countryside to work illegally.

    You can't deport people you haven't caught. Who you don't know are here. More boats will get through than won't. So they will still come.

    We could stop the boats. Go after scum employers using illegal labour. But the Tories won't so that because they make too much money in donations.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,029
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently Biden is sending 800 million dollars worth of military equipment to Ukraine which has been welcomed

    I am pleased that Biden has authorised this deployment of weapons, but it really is de facto involvement by US - NATO in the war v Russia

    Everyone has spent the last few months arming Ukraine, how is this any different?

    They’re not sending Americans to fire the weapons, at least not Americans we will ever know about.

    Edit: Of course, it could well be that “We are training Ukranian soldiers on this stuff in the US”, is code for “We are measuring a few dozen SEALs for Ukranian military uniforms”, but that’s the risk they take. They just need to make sure they don’t get captured!
    There isn't any way to "make sure" they aren't captured which is why I think it's very unlikely that there are any NATO service personnel anywhere near the fighting. A live US soldier captured would be Orthodox Christmas for VVP as it would validate much of his propaganda.

    The USAF had an exchange officer flying the Su-27 in the UkrAF. I wonder what happened to him...
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    The Rwanda stunt is a really stupid idea that is very expensive and won't work.

    Of course Brexiteers fucking love it.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,351
    Northstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    As a matter of interest, did Ricardo's comparative advantage theory feature in your 2000 studies?

    Relative advantage and absolute advantage did. Can't remember hearing anything about that specific theory or that my lecturer used the words 'comparative advantage.'
    Comparative advantage is less relevant if there are political / military / environmental / public health barriers to trade. These are all rising, as we all know.
    I'm not disagreeing. I'm just dubious that the Treasury will be able to work it out.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
    But, they will argue, if every Rwandan bound refugee discourages another 10 from making the crossing, the scheme pays for itself. Given our complete inability to get failed asylum seekers on planes to anywhere I seriously doubt the efficacy of this scheme.
    We all know it isn't a scheme. It's just PR. Announce something extreme enough to assuage the "no more forrin" vote. Rescue the Crime Minister for a moment by changing the leading news story. Then move on.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,863

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
    Apparently some do.
    Big_G is already assuming it will work, and if it doesn't, it's the opposition's fault.
    You are twisting my words

    I am not assuming it will work and it is fair to ask opponents what would you do

    Provide funding for the courts so we can process claims, including appeals, in under 3 months.

    It really is that sample.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    This is the country we have just done a “ multi million pound deal” with on people seeking asylum in the Uk.. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1514380024408944645
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    Simon Hart said it was "true" that Rwandan president Paul Kagame had been accused of human rights abuses, but added: "It doesn't alter the fact that their reputation as far as economic migrants are concerned ... is phenomenal."

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/simon-hart-rwanda-asylum-seekers_uk_6257bd63e4b0723f8015478d
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    The aim I would imagine is to put off refugees from crossing the Channel in the first place if they then end up in Rwanda for processing. Only the most genuine ones fleeing persecution for their lives or a genuine war zone would then still try
    At present we dont hold asylum seekers in detention here pending a hearing. Surely that would be a better first step? Indeed it presumably needs to be done as part of the new policy* so that the Rwanda flights can be arranged.

    *obviously excluding Ukrainians. The policy is only intended for non-whites.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,049
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    Very much so. It was from 1979 that Mrs Thatcher had a vision of an economy based on financial services, consumerism and housing speculation. Prior postwar governments saw manufacturing as a keystone of the UK economy.
    We are now focused on hi tech manufacturing not mass manufacturing. If it was not for Thatcher's reforms ending Union domination of industry and mass strikes we would not even have that
    'Unions' did not oppose technological developments per se.

    And there has been a couple of interesting programmes recently discussing the relationship between Reagan and Thatcher. He appears to have rather played her for an amusement on several occasions.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358
    edited April 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    I am curious as to how you propose that sneering bullying traitor will actually send anyone to Rwanda. As the Nigel has highlighted with his videos, most of the boat people make it across safely and disappear into the countryside to work illegally.

    You can't deport people you haven't caught. Who you don't know are here. More boats will get through than won't. So they will still come.

    We could stop the boats. Go after scum employers using illegal labour. But the Tories won't so that because they make too much money in donations.
    I assume the boats will be intercepted and those on board will be taken safely to port

    I do not know the details but I do have concerns but with predictions of upto 1,000 a day making the dangerous crossing it has to be addressed
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    How much would Rwanda want to keep Priti Patel?
    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1514499495123369984
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,222

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
    Apparently some do.
    Big_G is already assuming it will work, and if it doesn't, it's the opposition's fault.
    You are twisting my words

    I am not assuming it will work and it is fair to ask opponents what would you do

    Yes you are. Those were your exact words. No one is twisting them. You literally said, and I am quoting directly here from your post earlier this morning -“Whether it works or not time will tell, but I would assume it would have a dramatic effect on reducing those crossing and putting their lives at risk.”

    For what it’s worth I think that’s rubbish. The Opposition right in pointing out that this will be hugely expensive and won’t deter those already willing to risk their lives in an perilous crossing. Many will be Premier League fans who will have seen Rwanda encouraging visits on the sleeves of Arsenal’s shirts.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    I’m no economist, but I just can’t see how it would become economically worthwhile to bring this stuff back.

    Politically it’s a lovely dream to sell. But despite the recent shocks to JIT supply chains and the like, I think the fundamentals will remain unchanged. We get stuff cheaper if it’s made in China. That might be ethically dodgy. And a strategic gamble. But the economics will probably override those concerns, as they have done for decades. We do like our stuff cheap.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,222
    Patel encouraging overseas Arsenal fans -


  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    An overlooked statistic:

    Total Covid genomes uploaded to GISAID in last month (since March 14): 319,875 genomes

    UK - 146,359 (45.7%)
    EU - 112,978 (25.3%)
    US - 32,128 (10%)

    It seems world has become more rather than less dependent on UK genome sequencing as mass testing ends

    For much of the 2nd half of 2021, UK was contributing roughly 30% of monthly genome sequences to GISAID, so our relative contribution has risen in recent months as every country reduces testing.


    https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1514351698428702721
  • Options
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    The polling on this is indeed going to be very interesting.

    I predict wildly different results, depending on exactly how the question is framed.
    How about "Do you favour the government spending billions on a probably illegal, and very likely inefficient asylum scheme in order to distract from the PM breaking the law and wind up the libtards?"
    Apparently some do.
    Big_G is already assuming it will work, and if it doesn't, it's the opposition's fault.
    You are twisting my words

    I am not assuming it will work and it is fair to ask opponents what would you do

    Yes you are. Those were your exact words. No one is twisting them. You literally said, and I am quoting directly here from your post earlier this morning -“Whether it works or not time will tell, but I would assume it would have a dramatic effect on reducing those crossing and putting their lives at risk.”

    For what it’s worth I think that’s rubbish. The Opposition right in pointing out that this will be hugely expensive and won’t deter those already willing to risk their lives in an perilous crossing. Many will be Premier League fans who will have seen Rwanda encouraging visits on the sleeves of Arsenal’s shirts.
    I did not know about the Arsenal shirts to be honest
  • Options
    NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    ydoethur said:

    Northstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    As a matter of interest, did Ricardo's comparative advantage theory feature in your 2000 studies?

    Relative advantage and absolute advantage did. Can't remember hearing anything about that specific theory or that my lecturer used the words 'comparative advantage.'
    Comparative advantage is less relevant if there are political / military / environmental / public health barriers to trade. These are all rising, as we all know.
    I'm not disagreeing. I'm just dubious that the Treasury will be able to work it out.
    I’m sure you’re right - their understanding of economics seems to top out about mid-way through A-Level…
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    It was definitely orthodoxy before 1997. I was taught in GCSE Geography that Britain is now a tertiary, services-based, economy. We sell each other stuff that it is more efficient and cost-effective to have manufactured elsewhere. I sat my GCSEs in 1994. So a bit inaccurate to say since 1997. 1979 might be more accurate.

    Remains to be seen whether the whole Covid/Brexit thing brings industry and/or manufacturing back in any significant way. Doubt it personally.
    I was taught that in A-level economics in 2000.

    The people of roughly our generation are now running the Treasury and have repeatedly demonstrated they have neither the imagination nor the desire to keep up with changing circumstances.

    I share your doubts...
    I’m no economist, but I just can’t see how it would become economically worthwhile to bring this stuff back.

    Politically it’s a lovely dream to sell. But despite the recent shocks to JIT supply chains and the like, I think the fundamentals will remain unchanged. We get stuff cheaper if it’s made in China. That might be ethically dodgy. And a strategic gamble. But the economics will probably override those concerns, as they have done for decades. We do like our stuff cheap.
    We like our stuff cheap, but we also like to be able to buy it in the first place.

    Here’s the boss of Levi Strauss, wondering why the US has run out of blue jeans, two decades after the company offshored production to Asia. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/08/globalisation-dead-declares-levis-boss/

  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    SHOT: In September 2021, UK govt cancels €1.4bn deal with Valneva for its whole-virus inactivated vaccine shortly after it doesn’t perform well in a booster dose trial

    CHASER: UK medicines regulator becomes first globally to approve Valneva jab


    https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1514484858495643654

    Approved for 18-50s.

    Two separate bodies making different decisions on different things

    Is it safe & effective? Yes? Approved.

    Is it economic / the best option? No? We won’t buy it
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    The aim I would imagine is to put off refugees from crossing the Channel in the first place if they then end up in Rwanda for processing. Only the most genuine ones fleeing persecution for their lives or a genuine war zone would then still try
    Why would it put them off. The processing centre will be a paradise on earth whether in the UK or Rwanda. And then after processing they will be allowed to remain in the UK or dealt with as they are today.

    The only difference is the flight. Right?
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    I am curious as to how you propose that sneering bullying traitor will actually send anyone to Rwanda. As the Nigel has highlighted with his videos, most of the boat people make it across safely and disappear into the countryside to work illegally.

    You can't deport people you haven't caught. Who you don't know are here. More boats will get through than won't. So they will still come.

    We could stop the boats. Go after scum employers using illegal labour. But the Tories won't so that because they make too much money in donations.
    I assume the boats will be intercepted and those on board will be taken safely to port

    I do not know the details but I do have concerns but with predictions of upto 1,000 a day making the dangerous crossing it has to be addressed
    Why do you assume the boats will get intercepted? Do they get intercepted now? We hear about the odd one that sinks and needs rescue. The majority slip across unimpeded. If we could intercept them other policies such as tow backs would have been used.

    We can't catch them. We can't stop them. The odd ones we do get will not get more cash than the Ritz spent on them to go anywhere. And again, if we went after exploitative companies using illegal labour we could stymie demand for this trade. But the Tories like those sort of people and their money. So we don't.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    geoffw said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    Even more incredibly, Kyiv had just one Neptune battery we know of. And SAVED IT and its handful of missiles until it got a shot at the biggest Russian ship in the region. Patience. Discipline.
    Plus Tactics - it developed a way to get the Russian Navy off guard by using drones as distractions whilst the Neptunes were fired.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,049
    O/t, but a message for Big G.
    Does it make you feel old as well, reading people's recollections of doing A levels in the 90's and afterwards?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
    But, they will argue, if every Rwandan bound refugee discourages another 10 from making the crossing, the scheme pays for itself. Given our complete inability to get failed asylum seekers on planes to anywhere I seriously doubt the efficacy of this scheme.
    But I think that due to appeals / lack of identification of country of origin, etc.

    If they are still within the UK system, just in a geographically remote area, I think you should be able to just send people over?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Scott_xP said:

    it’s always intriguing when a cabinet minister stonewalls for several days over legitimate questions of public interest: on this occasion it’s health secretary Sajid Javid

    - thread

    “It’s not entirely clear the basis of his non-domicile status,” said Dan Neidle, former head of tax at Clifford Chance, the law firm. “On the face of it, it seems a bit racier than Mrs Sunak’s claim.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/647eb171-1cf3-4561-b85d-55d499300367

    Quite. Mrs Sunak was born outside the U.K., has strong family ties outside the U.K. and has only lived in the U.K. for a small part of her life (less than a quarter).

    None of the above applies to Javid.

    Residence is a lot easier to change (it’s where you live) than Domicile - you’ve got to have a strong case to lose your Domicile of birth.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
    I am curious as to how you propose that sneering bullying traitor will actually send anyone to Rwanda. As the Nigel has highlighted with his videos, most of the boat people make it across safely and disappear into the countryside to work illegally.

    You can't deport people you haven't caught. Who you don't know are here. More boats will get through than won't. So they will still come.

    We could stop the boats. Go after scum employers using illegal labour. But the Tories won't so that because they make too much money in donations.
    I assume the boats will be intercepted and those on board will be taken safely to port

    I do not know the details but I do have concerns but with predictions of upto 1,000 a day making the dangerous crossing it has to be addressed
    Why do you assume the boats will get intercepted? Do they get intercepted now? We hear about the odd one that sinks and needs rescue. The majority slip across unimpeded. If we could intercept them other policies such as tow backs would have been used.

    We can't catch them. We can't stop them. The odd ones we do get will not get more cash than the Ritz spent on them to go anywhere. And again, if we went after exploitative companies using illegal labour we could stymie demand for this trade. But the Tories like those sort of people and their money. So we don't.
    Many are being intercepted by Border Force and the RNLI and I would like to see a link that the majority slip across unimpeded out of upto 1,000 a day
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    The government wants a legal challenge to its Rwanda plan so it can lump opposition parties together with out-of-touch, elitist judges and lefty human rights lawyers. The cynicism and willingness to exploit human misery for political gain is sickening and entirely predictable.

    Cynically upsetting human rights lawyers and provoking them into a reaction. How terrible of the government to exploit that for political gain!
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    The aim I would imagine is to put off refugees from crossing the Channel in the first place if they then end up in Rwanda for processing. Only the most genuine ones fleeing persecution for their lives or a genuine war zone would then still try
    Why would it put them off. The processing centre will be a paradise on earth whether in the UK or Rwanda. And then after processing they will be allowed to remain in the UK or dealt with as they are today.

    The only difference is the flight. Right?
    Assuming that we (a) find them and (b) detain them. Which we are utterly incapable of doing because we have a minimal navy and police and border force who have already demonstrated its impossible to patrol our own coastal waters.

    Patel could threaten to house the forrin in Michael Fabricant's hair - what does it matter? They will come. They will not be caught. Rwanda is a desperate headline grabber which will be forgotten as quickly as the last one.

    Remember that forcing the Crime Minister to resign for lying to parliament - breaking the ministerial code - does it for Madame Bully-a-lot as well.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,351

    O/t, but a message for Big G.
    Does it make you feel old as well, reading people's recollections of doing A levels in the 90's and afterwards?

    It makes me feel old to realise I have a colleague (as a TA) who wasn’t born when I started Uni, if that helps.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,222

    O/t, but a message for Big G.
    Does it make you feel old as well, reading people's recollections of doing A levels in the 90's and afterwards?

    People who did A-Levels in 1990 are about 50 this year!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,936
    It looks as if the Moskva has been redeployed as a submarine.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    BBC R4 reporting that is a “one way ticket” to Rwanda for single males, as successful asylum seekers will get residence in Rwanda.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    Sean_F said:

    It looks as if the Moskva has been redeployed as a submarine.

    Comes to something when your cover story is 'we blew up our own ship by accident'
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514379537903235074
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358
    edited April 2022

    O/t, but a message for Big G.
    Does it make you feel old as well, reading people's recollections of doing A levels in the 90's and afterwards?

    Yes indeed
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Mrs C and I turned on the bedroom TV to hear Simon Calder predicting what appeared to be total gridlock over Easter.

    It was bad enough in east Kent yesterday. What seemed like the entire Kent police force is posted at checkpoints at every principal road junction to stop lorries searching out ways to jump the queue on the M20 using the back roads. Meanwhile the mass of lorries on the M20 are stuck there for 24 hours plus with no food or facilities.
    I am off to the Isle of Wight for Easter, hopefully the Red Funnel behaving.
    There's been a Wightxit?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    @HYUFD is this a policy that you approve?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    I don't think the Army is going to like this – how soon before anonymous military sources pan the scheme?
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1514503309062778883
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,560

    The government wants a legal challenge to its Rwanda plan so it can lump opposition parties together with out-of-touch, elitist judges and lefty human rights lawyers. The cynicism and willingness to exploit human misery for political gain is sickening and entirely predictable.

    Cynically upsetting human rights lawyers and provoking them into a reaction. How terrible of the government to exploit that for political gain!
    How much public money is going to be spent achieving that provocation?

    (You want to save money and stop the boat trade? Put the processing centre in Calais. Process them quickly- about 2/3 pass in the end. God knows we need the workers.

    Not practical politics, but it would achieve the stated aims better.)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    I've read conflicting views on this. Some say they can move any other vessels in; others say Russia can if they're part of the Black Sea fleet (but not if they're not); and others that they cannot move any military vessels.

    Though I imagine they'd allow transit for a badly-damaged warship out of the area. Although that might be irrelevant unless they're transiting it on the seabed...
    I have that image of tens of thousand former Russian soldiers, now part of the army of the White Walkers, dragging the dragon back to land with massive chains.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    TOPPING said:

    It just makes no sense. The refugees are here so are we saying we don't have the capacity to house them while their applications are being processed? No of course not. It is a punishment to go to Rwanda (cue all the What.. Are you saying Rwanda is not a paradise on earth...you racist...).

    So it is a punishment pure and simple. Those "genuine" asylum seekers and the "non-genuine" all shipped off to Africa.

    I'm disgusted.

    It’s not punishment. It reduces the risk of them disappearing into the illegal economy (I would say black economy, but…) before asylum status is granted. It limits the ability to subsequently appeal on the basis of family roots in the Uk.

    Fundamentally it makes a speculative move to the Uk to claim economic asylum less attractive as it reduces the likelihood of a positive payoff
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    DougSeal said:

    O/t, but a message for Big G.
    Does it make you feel old as well, reading people's recollections of doing A levels in the 90's and afterwards?

    People who did A-Levels in 1990 are about 50 this year!
    My eldest is 57 his sister 51 and their brother is 47 so yes
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,353
    Just had a conversation with a Conservative friend. She's a lifelong tory voter and up until recently she has loved (even adored) Boris. Her comment about sending migrants to Rwanda?

    "Totally appalling"

    Pb tories, no this isn't trolling. So stick your fingers in your ears if you like but this is a bona fide.

    It's a terrible mistake to lurch to the far right or far left to appease your supposed 'core' vote and neglect the middle. 2019 only worked because of the Brexit dithering and because Labour had an unelectable anti-semitic Trotskyite leader.

    The Conservatives are heading for a drubbing.
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    Out of interest, this Rwanda gig. Someone will need to corrale these migrants. Accommodate them whilst we innoculate them against a string of diseases and then wait for them to take effect. Ship them to the airport securely. And then fly them over.

    I assume this policy will be a massive pay day for the Tory party their friends and patrons? That we can expect large donations from the companies awarded non-tender contracts? That some companies offering expertise in this area will have been founded by a Tory 5 minutes before being awarded a £107m contract?

    They are crooks after all. They want to enrich themselves at our expense again. And have us cheer them as they steal our money.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Why is it unethical?
    It's unethical for the government to waste money.
    Nah, that’s what they do.

    Money is not an ethical matter
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    The pandemic has sped time up. I find it shocking that the Brexit referendum was 6 years ago.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,353
    Re, my post below there are actually a lot of tory voters who are decent people. They are being driven away from this latest Boris' brand of Conservatism in their droves.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970

    The government wants a legal challenge to its Rwanda plan so it can lump opposition parties together with out-of-touch, elitist judges and lefty human rights lawyers. The cynicism and willingness to exploit human misery for political gain is sickening and entirely predictable.

    Cynically upsetting human rights lawyers and provoking them into a reaction. How terrible of the government to exploit that for political gain!

    Yep, hilarious, isn't it? Let's send desperate people to a country with a long history of serious human rights violations and genocide to wind-up the lefties and score a few political points. Brilliant!
This discussion has been closed.