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Sunak’s favourability drops a colossal 26% in a month – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Why the Dems are gonna lose bad


    The NYT and the Guardian run basically the same piece on the NYC subway shooter. Apparently the prime, arrested and only suspect expressed ‘bigotry’ and ‘hatred’ online. They are weirdly vague, as to details

    “James, who has links to Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Ohio, New York and New Jersey, has posted dozens of bizarre rambling videos on social media in recent years in which he has expressed a range of bigoted views on topics ranging from mental health services, death and race”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/13/brooklyn-subway-shooting-suspect-new-york-latest?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    They cannot bring themselves to admit he is a BLM quasi-activist and a proselytizer of black supremacism

    Reminds me a bit how uninterested some media outlets were to the background the guy who drove through the Christmas parade a few months ago. Classic bias by omission.

    Mr James sounds a charming individual...

    One of James’ most egregiously racist videos is “they hate jew” — a convoluted, semi-autobiographical tirade uploaded to Facebook in late 2017 that finds him fantasizing about killing a Latino man whom he claims prevented him from advancing his machining career, and suggesting that Jewish individuals “have so much contempt for Blacks,” despite undergoing the horrors of the Holocaust. “These Jews obviously haven’t learned shit from their experience. You know, it hasn’t humbled them in the slightest,” he says. “They’re all — or the majority of them — still arrogant and still feel they’re superior and something above Black people. And, again, those motherfuckers don’t contribute to shit to life on this earth but shit, piss, pollution, and death and destruction.”

    https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/frank-james-new-york-brooklyn-subway-shooting-social-media-posts-1336740/
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,566
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Foxy said:

    Tine for comparing Putin's murderous blunder with other great military and strategic disasters. My opening offering is France initiating the Franco Prussian War.

    I nominate the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia in1914:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_campaign

    Has a number of interesting parallels with Putins campaign, though hopefully not precipitating a World War.
    1870 - Paraguay start a war against… well basically everyone else in South America.

    1982 Argentine invasion of Falkland Islands. Collapse of Military rule in Argentina for almost 40 years.
    Compared to 1870, the Falklands was a work of genius.

    99.99999% of the Argentine population survived the war.

    80%+ of males aged 16+ in Paraguay didn’t survive 1870.

    The victors seriously considered just not having Paraguay exist at all, because there were so few people left…
    I know nothing about this at all, it's difficult to conceive what a shitshow that must have been. Any good books on the subject?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War

    Is a good place to start - the subject is unfashionable, so the article is actually fairly sensible.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,524
    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    Paedos-in-the-pizza-parlour level of analysis.
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    I bet BoJo has a tiny penis
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,489

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    What is this bullshit?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414
    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/13/stopped-wife-opening-mutilated-daughters-coffin-protect-even

    "I stopped my wife from opening mutilated daughter’s coffin to protect her from even more grief

    ...

    “She was shot at point blank range. Almost half of her head was missing,” Mr Dereko, 41, told The Telegraph.

    The police told the Derekos that Karina had been killed by “violent death”. Yet because the story was “so horrific”, the authorities withheld information from them, although they were informed that she had been tortured.

    They also advised Mrs Dereko against viewing images of her daughter’s remains.

    “We think it could be possible that she was raped,” Mr Dereko added.

    “We have not seen the lower part of her body, just the upper part, but what we have seen at the top, we can only imagine what can be on the rest of her body.”

    Reality check as to what we are dealing with here

    Animals, horrid horrid Animals,

    We must give Ukraine what ever they what and need to defend themselves.
    They are not animals. Only humans have the capability to act with such depravity.
    That girl was 16

    The Russian army is an obscenity with nukes
    Protest in Tallin which is vey much to the point.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/avalaina/status/1514194493687447556

    I'm sure @Cicero can give more information on this, but please don't spell Tallinn with one "N" - it's the transliteration of the Russian form of the name and probably considered worse than calling Kyiv Kiev.
    The Russian name is Revel.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,604
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    There’s so much relevant stuff to attack our current government with. I find it rather disappointing that my favourite place to read about politics has so many contributors that immaturely go for irrelevant physical attributes. It’s hard to really respect people’s opinions who do so.

    Well the fat fuck doesn't care about being caught lying, cheating, or even breaking the law. So fat fuck he is.
    Grow up child.
    I pitch at the level of the thing I'm aiming at.
    That's all Boris Johnson is worth. Find me a higher class of politician and I'll give you a higher class of critique. I can happily operate on any level between lofty academic debate and brawling in the pub car park. Boris's level, what he deserves, is about the level of hiding a turd in the hood of his coat.
    All that may be true, I’m not disagreeing with you. But surely everyone has misjudged Boris ability to survive and just go on and on? How many false dawns have the opposition had against the Tories? And this don’t even look like a dawn yet, let alone false one.

    Very much on topic
    credit to Sunil for the photo

    image
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,524

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    Paedos-in-the-pizza-parlour level of analysis.
    I have no idea what you mean, but whatever metaphor tickles your pickle I guess...
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    I bet BoJo has a tiny penis

    No, he's a big prick.

    First time ever, here in apolitical Pembrokeshire I saw this sign in a window
    'Get Boris Out'

    Quite a big deal for down here. Perhaps shows strength of feeling against him which I have never seen before.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,566

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    Paedos-in-the-pizza-parlour level of analysis.
    I always find it curious how the links of blame and evil in these analyses alway stop in exactly the same place. 39 steps always leaves you at the same doorstep….
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,914
    Andy_JS said:

    Next Tory leader

    Truss 6.2 / 6.8
    Tugendhat 9 / 10
    Hunt 9.8 / 10.5
    Wallace 9.4 / 12.5
    Mordaunt 12 / 15.5
    Sunak 13.5 / 15.5

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Look how successfully Johnson has divided the opposition to him on the Tory front bench. No frontrunner to succeed him with odds of less than 6/1.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,524

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    Paedos-in-the-pizza-parlour level of analysis.
    I always find it curious how the links of blame and evil in these analyses alway stop in exactly the same place. 39 steps always leaves you at the same doorstep….
    I'm not sure what you think is 'analysis' about the above. The first two paragraphs are simply statements of fact. The final one is massive speculation and labelled as such.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,524
    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
  • Options

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    £120M?? And probably a lot more according to the BBC.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    £120M?? And probably a lot more according to the BBC.
    Some stuff on Twitter that the numbers are garbage. Apparently the cost - if the Australian example is a guide - is more expensive than it would be to send the asylum seekers to the Ritz.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,874

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    British jobs for Rwandan kapos!
    Election winning slogan right there.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    What is this bullshit?
    It's just RuskieGuy1917, doing his usual thing.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,988
    The right wing press are lapping up the new Rwanda deal . Although they would have been even happier if the refugees were just put against a wall and shot !

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,414

    BigRich said:

    The Ukrainians are officially saying that the Russian cruiser Moskva is on fire.

    Apparently they're trolling by saying perhaps some of the sailors were smoking...

    Also that Ukraine are launching a rescue attempt. If true, they must be expecting the ship to go down.

    (The Moskva is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.)

    The Saver is a substantial warship, 12,500 Tones about twice our type 45 Destroyers and heavily armed, she is old but finished a long refit in 2020 so is up to date in most respects, I do hope this report is accurate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Moskva

    The missile the Ukrainians say hit it, the 'Neptune missile' is brand new, entering service last year, I would have thought any they did have would have been used up by now, perhaps they have been able to make more, or perhaps they have given the blue prints to somebody else (UK?) to make them? or perhaps it was a different missile used (Harpoon?) but by agreement the Ukrainians will clame it was there own missiles so as to not 'escalate'
    Looking at the rows of Sandbox missiles lining the decks of the Moskva, reminds me of the Zuma class torpedo cruisers of the Imperial Japanese Navy.

    Which were rejected for service on the grounds that with 40 Long Lance torpedos on deck, it would be impossible for the Americans to avoid hitting one and cause a chain reaction destroying the entire ship…
    No such class as the "Zuma class" I'm afraid!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,131
    The Russians have confirmed that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet has been seriously damaged after its weapons detonated, but they haven’t said what caused it.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    The Russians have confirmed that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet has been seriously damaged after its weapons detonated, but they haven’t said what caused it.

    Same ship that appears in the "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" postage stamp (and my avatar).

    Zelenskyy... you sunk my battleship
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,909
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    The Russians have confirmed that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet has been seriously damaged after its weapons detonated, but they haven’t said what caused it.

    Same ship that appears in the "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" postage stamp (and my avatar).

    Zelenskyy... you sunk my battleship
    Updated stamp:
    https://nitter.net/pic/media/FQQvVXnXwAQ77Mf.jpg?name=orig
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,604
    nico679 said:

    The right wing press are lapping up the new Rwanda deal . Although they would have been even happier if the refugees were just put against a wall and shot !

    It’s the government throwing their supporters in media a lifeline. Plays perfectly into the “getting on with the job” “we act, they jabber” “delivering on the big calls” narratives.

    Polling on this will be interesting. Proper polling, not voodoo polls that will show it 100% popular, but ordinary everyday people were on beaches preventing lifeboats from picking the migrants up? It could play very well with voters, with election day weeks away.

    This sort of thing makes me think June General Election nailed on - how does an opposition attack measures like this with just three weeks to a polling day? This will take two years to prove it’s an unworkable atrocious con trick.

    Down thread MexicanPete said, election two years away, economy then may help Labour. Tories in for 5 years if election this June imo.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,458

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,604
    edited April 2022

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited April 2022
    Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61099131

    Are single men really more of a risk to women/children than married men?

    Surely those who pose most of a risk are those who have already offended and are on the police database? Singling out single men seems wrong. Like the old days when male teachers had to be married.

    The assumptions are just all wrong. We should expect better of the UN.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,914
    Good news for Macron. Reuter's forecast has moved slightly from 53/47 to 54/46 in his favour.

    https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/POLLS/zjvqkomzlvx/
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited April 2022
    ping said:

    Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61099131

    Are single men really more of a risk to women/children than married men?

    Surely those who pose most of a risk are those who have already offended and are on the police database? Singling out single men seems wrong. Like the old days when male teachers had to be married.

    The assumptions are just all wrong. We should expect better of the UN.

    There are some pretty awful women out there, too, come to think of it. Also some kids who I wouldn’t want sharing a house with other kids fleeing Ukraine.

    Stupid UN. Just do police checks on those applying to house refugees. Simples.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,262

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/13/stopped-wife-opening-mutilated-daughters-coffin-protect-even

    "I stopped my wife from opening mutilated daughter’s coffin to protect her from even more grief

    ...

    “She was shot at point blank range. Almost half of her head was missing,” Mr Dereko, 41, told The Telegraph.

    The police told the Derekos that Karina had been killed by “violent death”. Yet because the story was “so horrific”, the authorities withheld information from them, although they were informed that she had been tortured.

    They also advised Mrs Dereko against viewing images of her daughter’s remains.

    “We think it could be possible that she was raped,” Mr Dereko added.

    “We have not seen the lower part of her body, just the upper part, but what we have seen at the top, we can only imagine what can be on the rest of her body.”

    Reality check as to what we are dealing with here

    Animals, horrid horrid Animals,

    We must give Ukraine what ever they what and need to defend themselves.
    They are not animals. Only humans have the capability to act with such depravity.
    That girl was 16

    The Russian army is an obscenity with nukes
    Protest in Tallin which is vey much to the point.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/avalaina/status/1514194493687447556

    I'm sure @Cicero can give more information on this, but please don't spell Tallinn with one "N" - it's the transliteration of the Russian form of the name and probably considered worse than calling Kyiv Kiev.
    The Russian name is Revel.
    Tallinn has 2 "n"s. Depending on your etymology it comes from Talve-Linn, "Winter Town", or more likely Taani-Linn, "Danish Town". Tallin is the transliteration of the Russian. Reval is the German or Swedish name for the City, which was official until 1919. In Mediaeval times it was called either Kolovyan by the Russians or Lyndanisse by the pagan Estonians, both probably related to characters in the Kalvipoeg, the Estonian national epic.

    In any event I posted a link to the demonstration outside the Russian Embassy earlier. It was extremely powerful. Made even more so by the silence.

    Meanwhile the confirmed successful attack on the Moskva is very good news for the Ukrainians. It places the Russian navy in extreme danger. More to come I think.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    The French beauty brand L'Occitane says it will keep its shops in Russia open despite the invasion of Ukraine.

    The firm told the BBC it had discussed closing its stores "at length" but said it had not because it wanted to protect staff from potential "retaliation".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,131
    The sinking of the Moskva will be a big deal in Russia. It was the flagship of the Black Sea fleet with a crew of 510 and regularly featured in Russian naval drills.

    image
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Cicero said:

    Applicant said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/13/stopped-wife-opening-mutilated-daughters-coffin-protect-even

    "I stopped my wife from opening mutilated daughter’s coffin to protect her from even more grief

    ...

    “She was shot at point blank range. Almost half of her head was missing,” Mr Dereko, 41, told The Telegraph.

    The police told the Derekos that Karina had been killed by “violent death”. Yet because the story was “so horrific”, the authorities withheld information from them, although they were informed that she had been tortured.

    They also advised Mrs Dereko against viewing images of her daughter’s remains.

    “We think it could be possible that she was raped,” Mr Dereko added.

    “We have not seen the lower part of her body, just the upper part, but what we have seen at the top, we can only imagine what can be on the rest of her body.”

    Reality check as to what we are dealing with here

    Animals, horrid horrid Animals,

    We must give Ukraine what ever they what and need to defend themselves.
    They are not animals. Only humans have the capability to act with such depravity.
    That girl was 16

    The Russian army is an obscenity with nukes
    Protest in Tallin which is vey much to the point.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/avalaina/status/1514194493687447556

    I'm sure @Cicero can give more information on this, but please don't spell Tallinn with one "N" - it's the transliteration of the Russian form of the name and probably considered worse than calling Kyiv Kiev.
    The Russian name is Revel.
    Tallinn has 2 "n"s. Depending on your etymology it comes from Talve-Linn, "Winter Town", or more likely Taani-Linn, "Danish Town". Tallin is the transliteration of the Russian. Reval is the German or Swedish name for the City, which was official until 1919. In Mediaeval times it was called either Kolovyan by the Russians or Lyndanisse by the pagan Estonians, both probably related to characters in the Kalvipoeg, the Estonian national epic.

    In any event I posted a link to the demonstration outside the Russian Embassy earlier. It was extremely powerful. Made even more so by the silence.

    Meanwhile the confirmed successful attack on the Moskva is very good news for the Ukrainians. It places the Russian navy in extreme danger. More to come I think.
    Yes, apologies for that. In my defence, it was just before I fell asleep, and was a typo rather than a conscious misspelling.

    A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514398732611211271

    A big significance of the sinking is that it was a massive air defence asset in the area, carrying sixty odd S300 missiles.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    The Russians are still making slow advances despite their losses.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1514393355802791940
    🇷🇺 forces took control of Velyka Komyshuvakha just outside of Hrushuvkha (SW of Izyum).

    Expanding their position in the area will allow 🇷🇺 to continue their attempted advances South and South East.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,348

    nico679 said:

    The right wing press are lapping up the new Rwanda deal . Although they would have been even happier if the refugees were just put against a wall and shot !

    It’s the government throwing their supporters in media a lifeline. Plays perfectly into the “getting on with the job” “we act, they jabber” “delivering on the big calls” narratives.

    Polling on this will be interesting. Proper polling, not voodoo polls that will show it 100% popular, but ordinary everyday people were on beaches preventing lifeboats from picking the migrants up? It could play very well with voters, with election day weeks away.

    This sort of thing makes me think June General Election nailed on - how does an opposition attack measures like this with just three weeks to a polling day? This will take two years to prove it’s an unworkable atrocious con trick.

    Down thread MexicanPete said, election two years away, economy then may help Labour. Tories in for 5 years if election this June imo.
    A hardline right wing man on here thinks it is a great idea.

    The rest of the country think this is the Nasty Party well and truly back.

    A General Election this June is not going to happen. And it won't happen next June either.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    Plausible deniability. Pretend the USA is attacking them (with horrible words, gosh) whilst they are not retaliating, but ascribing the key role of evildoer to the British, the tail wagging the dog (if only).
    Ascribing the blame for the Bucha atrocities to the UK is extremely serious. I find the whole thing perplexing.

    I know that Boris is 'more' keen than the US, but I also know that the US would not let him be so if they didn't want him to. We've often floated ideas for them and been stalking horses for them. It has been alleged that we have the SAS in there.

    It's very far fetched, but it is vaguely possible to me that if anything does go sour with the Western effort in Ukraine, publicly, the US is ready to have its hands clean, blame it all on the nasty colonial British getting trigger happy, and the Russians are cooperating with this narrative.
    What is this bullshit?
    Darth Putin has the best response.
    OTD in 1990 Soviet Union admitted that Soviet Union carried out Katyn massacre. These are Soviet documents with Stalin personally approving the murder of 22,000 Poles.

    We blame(d) it on the Nazis. We lie(d). Imagine that going on today.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1514199855454986243
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,139

    The sinking of the Moskva will be a big deal in Russia. It was the flagship of the Black Sea fleet with a crew of 510 and regularly featured in Russian naval drills.

    image

    It also featured in the attack on Snake Island.

    Well, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself"...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,139
    edited April 2022
    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,348
    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Indeed.

    I don't know how often this bears repeating but it's a lot: you do not win elections by appealing to the hard Right or hard Left. It has been proven time and time again.

    And before anyone says 'what about 2019?', as Mike is fond of reminding you, that was against an unelectable awful anti-Semitic left wing leader and a Lib Dem leader who was out of her depth.

    When Boris Johnson comes up against a smart centrist Labour leader and a very competent Lib Dem one, let's see how well he fares.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,348
    By the way, the other thing that really gets my goat is that this notion of flying people down to the equator comes months after our leaders promised to tackle causes of climate change.

  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Bad day to be Putin's daily sitrep briefer:
    1. Sir, you've lost your Black Sea Fleet flagship
    2. And Sweden and Finland are joining NATO
    3. And the US is sending attack helicopters, long-range artillery, and 300 more Switchblades.
    4. And it looks like Ukraine might also end up getting those Migs
    5. And Ukraine's homemade land-based anti-ship missiles work.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    nico679 said:

    Football needs to adopt the rugby union rule on players moaning to refs . Sick of the constant moaning and harassing of referees. Atletico Madrid are a disgrace.

    Football generally hates to take anything from rugby. The response of ex players etc is always scornfull. Like it’s saying rugby is somehow better.
    I’ve seen it suggested that if they tried to ref football in the same way with respect to not talking back to the ref, then sides would run out of players left on the pitch. I disagree. I think they would learn pretty damn fast.
    Put a live mic on the referee, and let the broadcasters (where the big money comes from) deal with the unacceptable language with the clubs.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    Culture war? How is protecting the integrity of our borders part of a culture war?
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    ping said:

    Homes for Ukraine: Don't match female refugees with single men, UN says

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61099131

    Are single men really more of a risk to women/children than married men?

    Surely those who pose most of a risk are those who have already offended and are on the police database? Singling out single men seems wrong. Like the old days when male teachers had to be married.

    The assumptions are just all wrong. We should expect better of the UN.

    Should we ?

    Their comments are muddle headed and wrong. Next it will be don’t let children stay with gay couples.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Heathener said:

    By the way, the other thing that really gets my goat is that this notion of flying people down to the equator comes months after our leaders promised to tackle causes of climate change.

    Tell me, how are you planning to get to your 'green' Thai bolthole?

    I can recommend a lady who has rowed and cycled around the world; she might be able to give you some good advice.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    By the way, the other thing that really gets my goat is that this notion of flying people down to the equator comes months after our leaders promised to tackle causes of climate change.

    Tell me, how are you planning to get to your 'green' Thai bolthole?

    I can recommend a lady who has rowed and cycled around the world; she might be able to give you some good advice.
    My word, it’s almost as if climate change is used as a reason to oppose a policy someone doesn’t like when it’s convenient.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    TimT said:

    Bad day to be Putin's daily sitrep briefer:
    1. Sir, you've lost your Black Sea Fleet flagship
    2. And Sweden and Finland are joining NATO
    3. And the US is sending attack helicopters, long-range artillery, and 300 more Switchblades.
    4. And it looks like Ukraine might also end up getting those Migs
    5. And Ukraine's homemade land-based anti-ship missiles work.

    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Russian military HQ.

    What on Earth do you say to the big man, when you’re taking huge military losses - but there’s a long list of senior mil and pol figures ‘disappearing’?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    There’s a big Russian military port in Sevastopol, Crimea. Would be a shame if anything happened to it, or to a damaged ship on the way there.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,342
    Sandpit said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    There’s a big Russian military port in Sevastopol, Crimea. Would be a shame if anything happened to it, or to a damaged ship on the way there.
    Would be quite funny if they got the ship there, still afire, and it blew up on arrival destroying the port.

    But it sounds as though it has sunk.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    edited April 2022

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    Moskva was built and later had a prolonged refit in Ukraine at Mykolaiv.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    To be clear, we are talking about people with no documents, who have paid traffickers to come across the Channel from France?

    And this ‘human misery’ of taking people somewhere safe, is exactly what the Australians did a few years ago, an action which dramatically reduced the number of people dying in unsuitable small boats.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,419
    edited April 2022
    It’s a misty morning here in rural Picardy, and there is little sign of any election fever. The French don’t seem to do posters, either in houses or fields.

    But there is a notice with the results for the village - out of 96 electors, 85 turned out, with 33 voting Le Pen, 23 Macron, and Jadot and Melenchon getting 9 and 8 respectively. Just handfuls for the rest of the field. Your man on the spot, etc…
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028
    edited April 2022

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    The Japanese Self-Defense Force is reportedly in the Final Stages of preparing a Large Shipment of Military Equipment to Europe to provide to Ukraine and other Allied Countries in the Region, this will be the first Shipment of Military Materials sent from Japan in 75 years.

    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1514476775019106307
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    8 days ago, here’s a Home Office Minister saying there is absolutely no possibility of the government sending refugees to Rwanda, and that if there were he would know about it. 8 days ago. https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1511418078181171205/video/1
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    Nigelb said:

    Brilliant news. Great secure jobs for people in Rwanda; eliminates the issue of economic migrants coming to the UK to claim asylum.
    'Eliminates'

    Now you've to fly them to fucking Rwanda. House them in Rwanda, Care for them in Rwanda, Fly them back from Rwanda whatever the result of their application. Its fucking mad. The channel is 20miles wide. They're coming over no matter what you do. The prospect of 3 years+ in a red wall bedsit didn't deter them..

    When the inevitable happens, the lawsuits start piling up and the Mail's pissing and moaning about migrants on private flights worth more than your Gran's yearly pension it will be quietly mothballed.
    Yeah. True. In my post below called it con trick - but at least two years to prove it is. Boris can win Mays locals and Junes General Election on these sort of announcements, because voters love action, they love Boris Boosterism and his big vision thing.

    How do you suggest opposition react to it without sounding like they are supporting the hated status quo? Lib Dems and Labour have less than 5 hours now, till Today is on air, to come up with not just a policy, but one that grabs the voter as bold and powerful as this one looks from the marketing. You see my point?
    Simple - “Unaffordable, Unethical and very probably Unworkable”.
    Which is precisely the labour line.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Further details:

    According to a Russian source, the Moskva missile cruiser was hit by the Neptune anti-ship missiles from the coastline between Odessa and Nikolaev. The attention of the crew was diverted to counter the Bayraktar TB-2 UCAV.

    The missile/s hit the portside, as a result of which the warship took a strong roll. According to unconfirmed information, Moskva missile cruiser has sank after the evacuation of the crew.

    If there was indeed a Bayraktar TB2 UCAV operating in the area, we may see some footage/photos released soon.


    https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1514479789150724097

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Thanks.

    It'll be interesting to discover what happened, if we ever do. If it was a single missile hit with a 150kg warhead, or even two, then they must have been 'lucky' hits to destroy the vessel. Either that or Russian fire-control procedures are poor.

    According to Wiki, "The system is designed to defeat surface warships and transport vessels with a displacement of up to 5,000 tons". They managed to damage/sink a vessel over double that displacement.

    But IANAE, take my views with a pinch of salt, etc, etc.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    There’s definitely a race to onshore coming - but it’s going to be difficult to build factories while commodity prices are so high.

    A great opportunity for Western governments over the next couple of years though.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    Sandpit said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    To be clear, we are talking about people with no documents, who have paid traffickers to come across the Channel from France?

    And this ‘human misery’ of taking people somewhere safe, is exactly what the Australians did a few years ago, an action which dramatically reduced the number of people dying in unsuitable small boats.

    What makes you think Rwanda is safe?

    https://www.hrw.org/africa/rwanda


  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    edited April 2022
    tlg86 said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    Culture war? How is protecting the integrity of our borders part of a culture war?

    Hmmm, I wonder: government sends asylum seekers to African country with highly dubious human rights record and keeps them there for as long as it takes for the glacially slow and notoriously inhumane Home Office to process their claims, Labour and other opposition parties object saying it is expensive, cruel and inefficient, government and its media supporters accuse them of being a soft touch and wanting to flood the UK with illegal immigrants. Division and base outrage stoked. Job done. But you know this!

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    Expensive, cruel, won’t work .. but this is what Johnson assumes will please Tory MPs etc in the midst of his law breaking crisis ..which tells us much about him and them. It’s the Brexit pitch in another form : https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1514358138820038659
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    I've read conflicting views on this. Some say they can move any other vessels in; others say Russia can if they're part of the Black Sea fleet (but not if they're not); and others that they cannot move any military vessels.

    Though I imagine they'd allow transit for a badly-damaged warship out of the area. Although that might be irrelevant unless they're transiting it on the seabed...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,300
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    The Russians claim this is not a war. It'll be interesting to see what the Turks do about this, and any potential Russian reaction.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,556
    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Yes, but this is Boris Johnson's government.

    What difference does the legality or otherwise of an action make?

    And whilst there is massive Pooh trap for the opposition (don't mention the cruelty, that's what the government wants), pretty easy to attack on the lines of "expensive, won't work, traffickers are the real villains- go after them".
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    The Russians claim this is not a war. It'll be interesting to see what the Turks do about this, and any potential Russian reaction.
    I wonder if this is why the Russians have been calling this a Special Military Operation. The Turks will be under enormous pressure from both sides here. Not a comfortable position at all.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,342
    edited April 2022
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    My understanding which could be completely wrong is that the automatic right of passage in peace or war is only for those ships based in the Black Sea. The Varyag and the Ustinov are part of the Pacific Fleet and the Northern Fleet respectively so would appear not to be covered.

    The Russians could ask for them to be added of course, but they would have to negotiate that with Turkey.

    Would be interesting to see what Erdogan would do in that situation. He'd be delicately poised in terms of which way to jump.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,556
    Another thought.

    If Rawandan people break in to the proposed processing centre, is that as good as making it to the UK?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Thanks.

    It'll be interesting to discover what happened, if we ever do. If it was a single missile hit with a 150kg warhead, or even two, then they must have been 'lucky' hits to destroy the vessel. Either that or Russian fire-control procedures are poor.

    It depends what state of material readiness the ship was in. It's not practical or possible to keep a ship at General Quarters/Action Stations/Condition Zebra 24 hours a day, every day.

    Sheffield (about half the size of the Moskva but still big) was destroyed by a single 150kg warhead from an AM39 and was at a lower state of readiness. It might have survived if it were at Action Stations.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Yes, that is clearly the agenda.

    What legal route is there for refugees to seek asylum here if they are fleeing Syria or Tigray rather than Ukraine?

    It will be interesting to see the detail. What percentage of arrivals will be sent to Rwanda? Will their cases be heard in UK, in Rwanda or not at all?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    The only thing I would argue about there is the date. Under the influence of free trade zealots we have created dangerous dependencies that undermine our sovereignty with some truly nasty regimes who can now hold us to ransom.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    The Russians claim this is not a war. It'll be interesting to see what the Turks do about this, and any potential Russian reaction.
    Its not a war. It is a special operation to convert Russian warships into artificial reefs.
    The Ukranians have made a good start, but the reef definitely isn’t yet big enough.

    Let’s help them out with some more reef-forming equipment.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Good morning

    The proposals on the Rwanda asylum scheme are very controversial and the polling will be interesting

    Labour and others will oppose but they do need a credible alternative and not just they will arrest the people smugglers as that is patently not working
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited April 2022
    SHOT: In September 2021, UK govt cancels €1.4bn deal with Valneva for its whole-virus inactivated vaccine shortly after it doesn’t perform well in a booster dose trial

    CHASER: UK medicines regulator becomes first globally to approve Valneva jab


    https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1514484858495643654

    Approved for 18-50s.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    That seems to be right: https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/montreux-convention

    The Turks seem to have the right to deny passage in times of war.
    The Russians claim this is not a war. It'll be interesting to see what the Turks do about this, and any potential Russian reaction.
    Really, the "law" is whatever Turkey says it is as it's up to them to enforce it (or not).
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    Nigelb said:

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.

    We haven't been able to fly any Ukrainian refugees here...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,805
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    The only thing I would argue about there is the date. Under the influence of free trade zealots we have created dangerous dependencies that undermine our sovereignty with some truly nasty regimes who can now hold us to ransom.
    Therin lies the dilemma for the Brexiteers. Free trading bucaneers like P and O ferries exploiting a globalised workforce or pull up the drawbridge autarky?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028

    Scott_xP said:

    As ITV News reported last night, even the government fears it might not be legal.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-13/leaked-document-raises-potential-legal-issues-of-rwanda-asylum-seeker-policy

    Perfect - the government gets to go up against liberal, metropolitan, out-of-touch judges and lefty human rights lawyers. If you are looking for a culture war, what is not to like?

    Will the government have the fortitude to stick with it after a refugee gets raped or has the shit beaten out of them in Rwanda?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    Former International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell is scathing about the new plan: “MPs from across the House have already expressed concerns about adopting a policy which Australia abandoned as a failure...
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1514489311709831177
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    The Russian foreign ministry is doubling down on the anti-British rhetoric:

    💬#Zakharova: London successfully exports its colonial methods. The methods of suppressing the Donbass were obviously taught by British instructors and political mentors.

    ❓We wonder if the Ukrainians understand that London uses them as a typical colonial cannon fodder?


    https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1514270145933463554

    It's odd that they are targeting the UK with such rhetoric. They will be well aware that America runs the show.
    But they also know that Biden would do a deal.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    Dura_Ace said:

    Presume Putin will be apoplectic at the loss of Moskva. For one thing, one of those bits of news it is difficult to keep quiet - with no "heroic" angle to play. Plus, if the Ukrainians can sink the flag ship of the fleet, they can sink anything. Every time there is a sighting of a drone, every vessel is going to battle stations in case it is another attack.

    Russia may well slam a series of cruise missiles into Odessa, to assuage Putin's shame. But hard to imagine any seaborne invasion happening there now.

    Presumably they'll have lost a fair few missiles and other warfighting material with the ship.

    We know the Russians have accepted the ship had an incident; do we actually know if she is 'lost' yet?

    Another question: one of the problems with Russia's aircraft carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov) is that they have nowhere to drydock it for repairs - until (if) they finish the new one in Murmansk. Whilst the Moskva is much smaller, is there anywhere nearby the Moskva could be repaired if it has not sunk? Crimea? And if not, would the Turks allow it to transit the Bosporus?
    If it still floats (big if) they could put it into Sevastapol.

    The two other Slava class cruisers (Varyag and Ustinov) are in the Med so either or both of those could be moved into the Black Sea. Russia is identified as a Black Sea power in the Montreux Convention so there is no legal impediment to the other two cruisers transiting the Dardanelles or the Moskva transiting out into the Med (if capable).
    Not according to:

    It gets worse for Russia. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.

    https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514389106683527171
    Even more incredibly, Kyiv had just one Neptune battery we know of. And SAVED IT and its handful of missiles until it got a shot at the biggest Russian ship in the region. Patience. Discipline.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Russian “Brain Drain” is happening.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/technology/russia-tech-workers.html

    “In early March, days after Russia invaded Ukraine and began cracking down on dissent at home, Konstantin Siniushin, a venture capitalist in Riga, Latvia, helped charter two planes out of Russia to help people flee. Both planes departed from Moscow, carrying tech workers from the Russian capital as well as St. Petersburg, Perm, Ekaterinburg and other cities. Together, the planes moved about 300 software developers, entrepreneurs and other technology specialists out of the country, including 30 Russian workers from start-ups backed by Mr. Siniushin. The planes flew south past the Black Sea to Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, where thousands of other Russian tech workers fled in the weeks after the invasion. Thousands more flew to Georgia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other countries that accept Russian citizens without visas.

    “By March 22, a Russian tech industry trade group estimated that between 50,000 and 70,000 tech workers had left the country and that an additional 70,000 to 100,000 would soon follow. They are part of a much larger exodus of workers from Russia, but their departure could have an even more lasting impact on the country's economy. The long-run impact may be more significant than the short-run impact," said Barry Ickes, head of the economics department at Pennsylvania State University, who specializes in the Russian economy. "Eventually, Russia has to diversify its economy away from oil and gas, and it has to accelerate productivity growth. Tech was a natural way of doing that." Before all this started, Russia had such a strong technology base," [Artem Taganov, founder and chief executive of a Russian start-up called HintEd] said. "Now, we have a brain drain that will continue for the next five to 10 years."
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    Are you saying we stitched ourselves up ?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,556
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    The FT on the Shanghai lockdown and it’s potential impact as it continues.

    https://www.ft.com/content/368121b2-5e44-4393-9ff8-f5b4fc40ba2b

    There's a recession coming on the back of this which is going to add to the government's woes. Most manfacturing will be suffering parts and supply problems within weeks if they are not already. The Spring Statement's growth forecast looks seriously optimistic now.
    Yes, I think so too. It is looking grim. I wonder if this will ease pressure on commodity prices.

    There are some parts we are struggling to get now. Suppliers out there have declared force majeure on us.

    Global supply chains, particularly JIT ones, are great while they work but covid has proven them to be brittle.

    This will accelerate onshoring.
    The last point is welcome. People go on about our dependency on Russian gas and oil all the time but I am much more concerned about our dependency on Chinese manufacturing.
    We have moved a long way from the political philosophy, both new labour and Tory, that if we cannot make something at a competitive cost we should let low cost labour countries make it and concentrate on other stuff.

    We are reaping what politicians have sewn since 1997.
    The only thing I would argue about there is the date. Under the influence of free trade zealots we have created dangerous dependencies that undermine our sovereignty with some truly nasty regimes who can now hold us to ransom.
    Therin lies the dilemma for the Brexiteers. Free trading bucaneers like P and O ferries exploiting a globalised workforce or pull up the drawbridge autarky?
    The bulk of the money (and political elite on the right) wants one, the bulk of votes in the country wants the other, I suspect.

    So can the drawbridgers be bought off with... I dunno.... Some performance art on asylum?
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    The government’s plan to send desperate refugees to Rwanda is solely about trying to embarrass Labour which, like any party with a shred of decency, will oppose the move. The human misery the Tories are prepared to inflict in the name of culture war is unending.

    The opposition might profitably attack the cost if this scheme along with its immorality.

    I suspect the cost of placing each individual in Rwanda would build at least one new family home back here.
    How much monetary value are you putting on each person who drowns in the Channel in your equation there?
This discussion has been closed.