Betting Warning. There is a lot of polling go in on for this second round, for the sake of your betting hangover, don’t mix your grain with your hop - follow trend within company not between them.
I have analysed it this morning, and the companies who have given Le Pen her highest second round scores have more recent polls lower, I see clear drift away from Le Pen, and Macron is my favoured bet to win this.
Weren't you tipping Macron to even make the final two?
I hope you're not the new Rogerdamus.
No. I always claimed Macron would make top two. Please find a post where I stated he wouldn’t if you wish to spin that. I claimed which ever of the anti establishment candidate made top with him could beat him, because the anti establishment vote has looked far stronger this time for months now. I never posted Macron would lose in first round, so it’s unfair to say that. My French election analysis actually proved spot on so far.
People after Sundays vote saying it’s 60/40 again, or people like Roger saying it’s 100% impossible for France to ever elect Le Pen, made me cross. 😠 Even now with the far closer election than last time drifting away from Le Pen I am getting zero credit for previously pointing out this is exactly where we would be today - and a great many Melenchon supporters may yet not abstain or go Macron, but pile onto Le Pen in the final moments, if Macron campaigns poorly and the last polls tighten showing he’s beatable.
Glib Le Pen comes across as uninspiring and unintelligent leader, her policies especially the financial ones are pure fantasy - making a mug of any voter who thinks they will do well from that policy, so votes for it, and behind every carefully crafted speech she gives is the chilling echo of Nazism.
But all history especially recent history proved these things can win elections, through complacency of the opposition.
PS thanks for replying to my post. This is the first time you have spoken to me since you banned me. 🙂
No. 10 has confirmed it. So possibly not a leak. Plan to front up to it and try and ride out the wave?
The timing and way it came out (breathless reporter, surprised presenter implies no need for confirmation), right at the end of the news, suggests No 10 fed the story. Noticeable PM AND Chancellor.
Didn't Boris sign off to Zelensky on the phone several times saying "I hope this isn't the last time we speak"? Clearly Boris was referring to himself possibly being out of office soon!
The more they move there, the more it isn't in Ukraine.
And the more likely that Finland (and Sweden) join NATO.
True, though if Finland and Sweden make an application to join NATO and Russia then attacks Finland and Sweden before their NATO membership is confirmed, that would still not technically be an attack on a NATO member state
If Finland and Sweden apply whilst Russia is moving troops up to the border, Putin would discover what the "fast track" channel is for.
Fuck technicalities, we wheel out the good stuff....
Then head to WW3.
The position remains we only go to military action if a NATO member state is attacked otherwise just expanded sanctions, Sweden and Finland took the risk when they decided not to join NATO earlier. They are probably best now just staying independent nations as a NATO application would just provoke Putin
It wouldn't surprise me if Biden (NATO is one man, one vote and Biden is the man with that vote) tells them to chill on NATO membership for now until the Ukraine unpleasantness fizzles out into the inevitable messy compromise. The US don't need Putin any more butthurt than he already is.
The more they move there, the more it isn't in Ukraine.
And the more likely that Finland (and Sweden) join NATO.
True, though if Finland and Sweden make an application to join NATO and Russia then attacks Finland and Sweden before their NATO membership is confirmed, that would still not technically be an attack on a NATO member state
If Finland and Sweden apply whilst Russia is moving troops up to the border, Putin would discover what the "fast track" channel is for.
Fuck technicalities, we wheel out the good stuff....
Then head to WW3.
The position remains we only go to military action if a NATO member state is attacked otherwise just expanded sanctions, Sweden and Finland took the risk when they decided not to join NATO earlier. They are probably best now just staying independent nations as a NATO application would just provoke Putin
It wouldn't surprise me if Biden (NATO is one man, one vote and Biden is the man with that vote) tells them to chill on NATO membership for now until the Ukraine unpleasantness fizzles out into the inevitable messy compromise. The US don't need Putin any more butthurt than he already is.
Weak, weak, weak if so.
Now is precisely the moment to stand up to Putin and make him as "butthurt" as possible. When Russia or Putin decide to back down, that's the time to take the pressure off, not before.
A week is a long time in politics….”weeks” an eternity:
Conservative MPs were adamant in private weeks ago that this would mean Johnson would face a no confidence vote. Even cabinet ministers said they thought it would mean his position was untenable. Will it prove right?
Johnson and Sunak should both resign. It would be a bloody good way of demonstrating the difference between a state where everyone answers to the law and a place like Russia where a bunch of genocidal thugs gorge on their nation's wealth with no regard to the law, except as a tool for oppressing opponents.
The police have said that they have issued about 50 FPNs in relation to parties at No. 10. They are also not issuing names.
I don't see how this is tenable. Either names leak. Or suspicions fall on innocent people. Or some confirm and others do not.
And if say the PM is not issued with an FPN but many of his staff are should we not know that? And whether these were senior or junior staff?
It all feels a bit messy and unsatisfactory. What do others think?
I do not see why people who break the law should be allowed anonymity.
On which regard, should I be able to look up all my friends and family to see who's been given speeding tickets and the like?
If they are not publicly accountable (ie not politicians or political employees) but civil servants I see no reason for people to be named.
Well, generally people who commit criminal offences are named. And others who have been given big Covid fines have been named.
Now I understand that FPNs are more like speeding tickets etc. But given the circumstances of this particular investigation, is this really going to hold? Should those at the heart of government who breached such laws during such a time really remain anonymous?
Maybe we need to have anonymised descriptions or something. I dunno. But I am troubled by this. We have not been told the truth about any of this so far and this feels like another way in which the truth of what went on will be obscured.
It feels most unsatisfactory to me.
It is unsatisfactory, partly because it is holding up the full publication of the Grey report. I'd settle for not knowing who got FPN's as ultimately trivial offences as long as the Grey report details what went on on, when and who.
I suspect that we will get neither.
Really hope not. The country needs some kind of closure for this. I think I'd want to front up and take the hit with the report (or even, perish the thought, resign if its bad enough).
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
What if Sunak just resigned over this, presuming he did would that not totally undermine Johnson.
I also think Truss would doom you to a rout in 2024.
Yes, If Sunak resigned, Boris would have to, surely...
I know what you mean (and if Rishi is a dead politician walking, that gives him the paradoxical power that he can't be destroyed any more than he is, so he can tapdance on the landmine), but essence of Boris is that he doesn't have to do anything he doesn't want to.
It's the poor sods standing in the local elections I feel sorry for.
The more they move there, the more it isn't in Ukraine.
And the more likely that Finland (and Sweden) join NATO.
True, though if Finland and Sweden make an application to join NATO and Russia then attacks Finland and Sweden before their NATO membership is confirmed, that would still not technically be an attack on a NATO member state
If Finland and Sweden apply whilst Russia is moving troops up to the border, Putin would discover what the "fast track" channel is for.
Fuck technicalities, we wheel out the good stuff....
Finland is better integrated with US forces than many NATO members…..
This is a couple of army lorries etc, being spotted in Vyborg. Hardly the start of an invasion. But part of the idea, is to get Finland in NATO now whilst Russia is distracted in Ukraine, which also helps with public support etc etc. And the Russians seem to be doing their bit for the pro NATO effort, by making menacing comments, etc. Going to be a tense few months in Finland, for sure.
Edit - my understanding is that NATO would give security guarantees to Finland, whilst its application is being processed, which may take 4-12 months, dealing with the 'pre emptive strike' risk.
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
What if Sunak just resigned over this, presuming he did would that not totally undermine Johnson.
I also think Truss would doom you to a rout in 2024.
Yes, If Sunak resigned, Boris would have to, surely...
That would be lol worthy but bear in mind he is young and ambitious, and has a future career outside politics which he won't want to jeopardise by looking too obviously like a vindictive loser.
Betting Warning. There is a lot of polling go in on for this second round, for the sake of your betting hangover, don’t mix your grain with your hop - follow trend within company not between them.
I have analysed it this morning, and the companies who have given Le Pen her highest second round scores have more recent polls lower, I see clear drift away from Le Pen, and Macron is my favoured bet to win this.
Weren't you tipping Macron to even make the final two?
I hope you're not the new Rogerdamus.
No. I always claimed Macron would make top two. Please find a post where I stated he wouldn’t if you wish to spin that. I claimed which ever of the anti establishment candidate made top with him could beat him, because the anti establishment vote has looked far stronger this time for months now. I never posted Macron would lose in first round, so it’s unfair to say that. My French election analysis actually proved spot on so far.
People after Sundays vote saying it’s 60/40 again, or people like Roger saying it’s 100% impossible for France to ever elect Le Pen, made me cross. 😠 Even now with the far closer election than last time drifting away from Le Pen I am getting zero credit for previously pointing out this is exactly where we would be today - and a great many Melenchon supporters may yet not abstain or go Macron, but pile onto Le Pen in the final moments, if Macron campaigns poorly and the last polls tighten showing he’s beatable.
Glib Le Pen comes across as uninspiring and unintelligent leader, her policies especially the financial ones are pure fantasy - making a mug of any voter who thinks they will do well from that policy, so votes for it, and behind every carefully crafted speech she gives is the chilling echo of Nazism.
But all history especially recent history proved these things can win elections, through complacency of the opposition.
PS thanks for replying to my post. This is the first time you have spoken to me since you banned me. 🙂
£10, evens, that no reputable (@rcs1000 can arbitrate) pollster will show a Le Pen lead before the second round vote.
I did suggest a while back, that Johnson should just laugh off the partygate thing and pay the FPN, treat it like a parking ticket. That would be entirely consistent with his political style. Sunak... not so much.
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
That has been my position for months. Not said lightly, because he is a vote-winning machine. Or has been. But in all fairness, I do not see how the Conservative Party can go into the next election with "liar" hanging over their candidate for PM.
Could Boris do a John Major or David David? Resign as Tory leader/MP and immediately stand again.
We had this discussion a couple of months ago and it was inconclusive as the party constitution is worded ambiguously. It's certain that a leader losing a VONC can't stand in the ensuing election, and IIRC the idea of the rules was that a Major "back me or sack me" was supposed to be no longer possible but having read the rules I'm not at all sure that it is.
This does raise the question of how? Surely almost all its usable forces are currently committed?
Given the recently announced call up of reserves, perhaps they are sending the reservists and other conscripts to the Finnish border? Rather than sending them to Ukraine?
Good luck with that with the Finns. On the evidence of the Winter War they'll be in Archangel and St Petersburg within the fist hour.
Not sure this is survivable? If ones goes then the other surely has to? Other than at an election have both positions ever been vacated simultaneously?
Boris can survive this if he is brazen enough and his MPs are spineless enough.
This does raise the question of how? Surely almost all its usable forces are currently committed?
Given the recently announced call up of reserves, perhaps they are sending the reservists and other conscripts to the Finnish border? Rather than sending them to Ukraine?
Good luck with that with the Finns. On the evidence of the Winter War they'll be in Archangel and St Petersburg within the fist hour.
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Note this is not me defending the PM.
But - he could say "I followed what I was assured was the advice at the time. Sadly it seems mistakes were made, and the police have seen fit to issue me with a FPN. I will of course accept this and consider the matter closed'.
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Blair did not resign after misleading the House over WMD.
Is that really the best defence you can think of? Pathetic. Your loyalty to The Clown is looking every bit as braindead than Russians who believe in "denazification". Actually it is worse than that, because at least they have the excuse of no balanced media coverage.
If Sunak resigns then the pressure on Johnson to go will be huge .
Indeed. And those who have been undermining Sunak to the point where he may well resign will have to explain that Epic Fail to Big Dog.
Sunak could exact his revenge on Johnson by resigning and making a principled statement as to why he had to . That will make Johnson look even worse if he refused to go .
Khan has been completely ruined by this conviction, it is very bad. If you want to know the hell that people convicted of child sex offences go through, then look at some of the discussions on 'unlock'. Their lives are barely worth living. This state of affairs is certainly not civilisation marching forward to a state of enlightenment.
Presuming that the jury got it right, and he did what I was accused of, I can't say I'm terribly sympathetic. Can't do the time, don't do the crime...
Erm, is that a typo?
Err... Yes. Unfortunately only spotted after the edit window closed. 🤦
This does raise the question of how? Surely almost all its usable forces are currently committed?
Given the recently announced call up of reserves, perhaps they are sending the reservists and other conscripts to the Finnish border? Rather than sending them to Ukraine?
Good luck with that with the Finns. On the evidence of the Winter War they'll be in Archangel and St Petersburg within the fist hour.
Others on here will know more. But as I understand it, Finland would be in trouble due to Russia having likely air superiority (although this may be in doubt after events in Ukraine). That is why they need to join NATO.
Boris has been an excellent PM in the round, he has handled the biggest issues (Ukraine, Covid, Brexit) extremely well.
But lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
As an analogy, its like an excellent employee who hits all the KPIs who goes on a bender and attacks a colleague - it is gross misconduct, they have to go, even if they've been hitting their KPIs.
Could Boris do a John Major or David David? Resign as Tory leader/MP and immediately stand again.
We had this discussion a couple of months ago and it was inconclusive as the party constitution is worded ambiguously. It's certain that a leader losing a VONC can't stand in the ensuing election, and IIRC the idea of the rules was that a Major "back me or sack me" was supposed to be no longer possible but having read the rules I'm not at all sure that it is.
Earlier in this thread we discussed police 'accuracy', and how their conclusions could be challenged, did we not? If not then, we certainly have in the past, so I am little surprised to see people assuming that the Met haven't made a dreadful mistake,
Cements Rishi Sunak's fall from grace as possibly one of the swiftest ever. The door was slightly ajar and now it is firmly shut forever. Given how rich he is why would he bother to carry on? Move to California and live on his and his wife's millions seems much more preferable!
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Note this is not me defending the PM.
But - he could say "I followed what I was assured was the advice at the time. Sadly it seems mistakes were made, and the police have seen fit to issue me with a FPN. I will of course accept this and consider the matter closed'.
He could say that. Which of course would be another lie being told to the house. he has form here - telling a lie to hide a lie. The problem is there is no more road to run down.
Its really very simple. Either standards matter or they don't. Principles. The Truth.
9% think the junior paper clip operative should go rather than the bloke in charge?
If the junior paper clip operative stole some paper clips, you’d expect the j.p.c.o. to resign, not the boss. I can see the logic, although I don’t feel it applies here, and here the boss has since also been found to have metaphorically nicked some paper clips.
This does raise the question of how? Surely almost all its usable forces are currently committed?
Given the recently announced call up of reserves, perhaps they are sending the reservists and other conscripts to the Finnish border? Rather than sending them to Ukraine?
Good luck with that with the Finns. On the evidence of the Winter War they'll be in Archangel and St Petersburg within the fist hour.
Cements Rishi Sunak's fall from grace as possibly one of the swiftest ever. The door was slightly ajar and now it is firmly shut forever. Given how rich he is why would he bother to carry on? Move to California and live on his and his wife's millions seems much more preferable!
Maybe the FPN will mean he can't go back to the US? They are pretty tough on this area, as I understand it.
Would the same argument not apply to a speeding ticket?
It’s different because of the circumstances . Flouting the laws around covid given how many people suffered during the time is on another level to a speeding ticket .
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Blair did not resign after misleading the House over WMD.
Thatcher/Belgrano?
What did she mislead the house about?
Absolutely nothing. The Belgrano was part of a pincer movement that was a threat to the task force. The decision to sink was a tough one but militarily correct. The loss of life was exacerbated by the supporting Argentine vessels fleeing the scene.
The more they move there, the more it isn't in Ukraine.
And the more likely that Finland (and Sweden) join NATO.
True, though if Finland and Sweden make an application to join NATO and Russia then attacks Finland and Sweden before their NATO membership is confirmed, that would still not technically be an attack on a NATO member state
If Finland and Sweden apply whilst Russia is moving troops up to the border, Putin would discover what the "fast track" channel is for.
Fuck technicalities, we wheel out the good stuff....
Then head to WW3.
The position remains we only go to military action if a NATO member state is attacked otherwise just expanded sanctions, Sweden and Finland took the risk when they decided not to join NATO earlier. They are probably best now just staying independent nations as a NATO application would just provoke Putin
Betting Warning. There is a lot of polling go in on for this second round, for the sake of your betting hangover, don’t mix your grain with your hop - follow trend within company not between them.
I have analysed it this morning, and the companies who have given Le Pen her highest second round scores have more recent polls lower, I see clear drift away from Le Pen, and Macron is my favoured bet to win this.
Weren't you tipping Macron to even make the final two?
I hope you're not the new Rogerdamus.
No. I always claimed Macron would make top two. Please find a post where I stated he wouldn’t if you wish to spin that. I claimed which ever of the anti establishment candidate made top with him could beat him, because the anti establishment vote has looked far stronger this time for months now. I never posted Macron would lose in first round, so it’s unfair to say that. My French election analysis actually proved spot on so far.
People after Sundays vote saying it’s 60/40 again, or people like Roger saying it’s 100% impossible for France to ever elect Le Pen, made me cross. 😠 Even now with the far closer election than last time drifting away from Le Pen I am getting zero credit for previously pointing out this is exactly where we would be today - and a great many Melenchon supporters may yet not abstain or go Macron, but pile onto Le Pen in the final moments, if Macron campaigns poorly and the last polls tighten showing he’s beatable.
Glib Le Pen comes across as uninspiring and unintelligent leader, her policies especially the financial ones are pure fantasy - making a mug of any voter who thinks they will do well from that policy, so votes for it, and behind every carefully crafted speech she gives is the chilling echo of Nazism.
But all history especially recent history proved these things can win elections, through complacency of the opposition.
PS thanks for replying to my post. This is the first time you have spoken to me since you banned me. 🙂
£10, evens, that no reputable (@rcs1000 can arbitrate) pollster will show a Le Pen lead before the second round vote.
I agree she is very unlikely to show a poll lead. So no bet.
Do you agree I called it right saying it would get this close though.
Here’s the kicker, Malmsy, Le Pen could still win a close one without ever leading a poll. If it tightens up at the end, Macron is not quite in charge of all those anti establishment votes out there.
“French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen said she broadly supports sanctions against Russia, except when it comes to oil and gas supplies.”
In terms of betting on the outcome of French election, I ask you to consider two things. Firstly, when voters vote in secret in domestic election, are they swayed by international geo politics, or is it the self interest for themselves and family, in first instance, stretching out to street, neighbourhood, and the self interest of town and country before international concerns?
Secondly, if polls tighten late on and Macron looks beatable, does it encourage would be Melenchon abstentions to rethink a vote bringing down Macron?
This is the country which invented the guillotine, and they have, in a way, used it on so many of their leaders to this day, they just can’t help themselves.
Thanks for the reply and challenging me though. But I’m not just “saying” stuff I’m trying to explain why something could happen. Do you see my point?
Cements Rishi Sunak's fall from grace as possibly one of the swiftest ever. The door was slightly ajar and now it is firmly shut forever. Given how rich he is why would he bother to carry on? Move to California and live on his and his wife's millions seems much more preferable!
Maybe the FPN will mean he can't go back to the US? They are pretty tough on this area, as I understand it.
An FPN is not a conviction it is the equivalent of a parking ticket or speeding ticket, I don't think they're tough at all on this area are they?
Politically its very different, but the US aren't involved in the politics of it.
Boris has been an excellent PM in the round, he has handled the biggest issues (Ukraine, Covid, Brexit) extremely well.
But lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
As an analogy, its like an excellent employee who hits all the KPIs who goes on a bender and attacks a colleague - it is gross misconduct, they have to go, even if they've been hitting their KPIs.
"extremely well" lol. He is a buffoon that leaves a trail of chaos in his wake and is totally unfit for office in every way. I'll give him some credit for his support of Ukraine, but it is no more than any other PM of the last 100 years would have done.
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Blair did not resign after misleading the House over WMD.
Whataboutery. Two wrongs don't make a right.
Your party leader openly and deliberately lied to parliament on a number of occasions. Should he now resign?
Of course he should and I think it is when not if now.
But your former party set this bar pretty low and HYUFD is right. Blair, at best misled Parliament, and didn’t have the principle to resign.
It’s symptomatic of modern politics I’m afraid. There is little honour across the board. Offences one party deems as resigning matters the other just dismisses.
Society gets the politicians we deserve. It’s been a grim path from Blair to Johnson?
Possibly PM Wallace or Javid or Truss by the end of the summer if true.
Though depends on how bad the polling and local election losses turn out to be for the Tories as to whether Johnson and Sunak survive
Direct question. The Prime Minister deliberately mislead the House. Repeatedly.
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
Blair did not resign after misleading the House over WMD.
Thatcher/Belgrano?
What did she mislead the house about?
Absolutely nothing. The Belgrano was part of a pincer movement that was a threat to the task force. The decision to sink was a tough one but militarily correct. The loss of life was exacerbated by the supporting Argentine vessels fleeing the scene.
My view has always been that the Belgrano was an enemy vessel and sinking it was appropriate. Telling the Argentines we would sink anything inside the EZ does not imply we wouldn't sink anything outside it. The correct UK Government response should have been a shrug and "all's fair in love and war".
Cements Rishi Sunak's fall from grace as possibly one of the swiftest ever. The door was slightly ajar and now it is firmly shut forever. Given how rich he is why would he bother to carry on? Move to California and live on his and his wife's millions seems much more preferable!
Maybe the FPN will mean he can't go back to the US? They are pretty tough on this area, as I understand it.
An FPN is not a conviction it is the equivalent of a parking ticket or speeding ticket, I don't think they're tough at all on this area are they?
Politically its very different, but the US aren't involved in the politics of it.
If it was a caution it would be a different matter.
Re Crispin Blunt, I see that his outburst on twitter was not a one-off. He was likewise ranting about it on a local Conservative WhatsApp group, leading one councillor to reply that he was unfit to hold public office. Given too his attacks on Lisa Townsend, it's hard not to agree.
The more they move there, the more it isn't in Ukraine.
And the more likely that Finland (and Sweden) join NATO.
True, though if Finland and Sweden make an application to join NATO and Russia then attacks Finland and Sweden before their NATO membership is confirmed, that would still not technically be an attack on a NATO member state
If Finland and Sweden apply whilst Russia is moving troops up to the border, Putin would discover what the "fast track" channel is for.
Fuck technicalities, we wheel out the good stuff....
Then head to WW3.
The position remains we only go to military action if a NATO member state is attacked otherwise just expanded sanctions, Sweden and Finland took the risk when they decided not to join NATO earlier. They are probably best now just staying independent nations as a NATO application would just provoke Putin
Mrs T would have called you frit.
Mrs T never went to war with a nuclear missile armed USSR either, nor China over Hong Kong.
She knew to fight battles she could win.
In the 1980s of course NATO stopped at West Berlin not the Baltic States.
When the USSR put missiles in Cuba JFK also avoided war and found a diplomatic solution
Comments
BREAKING: Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak set to receive fines for Covid-19 breaches #Partygate
No 10: “The PM and Chancellor have today received notification that the Metropolitan police intend to issue them with fixed penalty notices."
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1513861944045940738
People after Sundays vote saying it’s 60/40 again, or people like Roger saying it’s 100% impossible for France to ever elect Le Pen, made me cross. 😠 Even now with the far closer election than last time drifting away from Le Pen I am getting zero credit for previously pointing out this is exactly where we would be today - and a great many Melenchon supporters may yet not abstain or go Macron, but pile onto Le Pen in the final moments, if Macron campaigns poorly and the last polls tighten showing he’s beatable.
Glib Le Pen comes across as uninspiring and unintelligent leader, her policies especially the financial ones are pure fantasy - making a mug of any voter who thinks they will do well from that policy, so votes for it, and behind every carefully crafted speech she gives is the chilling echo of Nazism.
But all history especially recent history proved these things can win elections, through complacency of the opposition.
PS thanks for replying to my post. This is the first time you have spoken to me since you banned me. 🙂
Does Kaboom do it justice?
I also think Truss would doom you to a rout in 2024.
Now is precisely the moment to stand up to Putin and make him as "butthurt" as possible. When Russia or Putin decide to back down, that's the time to take the pressure off, not before.
I agree, Wallace or Javid far better than Truss for leader
Do you think he should follow the Ministerial Code and resign?
At any other time both should resign but I expect Tory MPs to say because of Ukraine ......
The best outcome for Labour is Johnson limps on with what credibility he had left shot to pieces .
Conservative MPs were adamant in private weeks ago that this would mean Johnson would face a no confidence vote. Even cabinet ministers said they thought it would mean his position was untenable. Will it prove right?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1513862563393589259
Covers new KYC/ID&M issues.
https://tenor.com/bwZjT.gif
It's the poor sods standing in the local elections I feel sorry for.
Edit - my understanding is that NATO would give security guarantees to Finland, whilst its application is being processed, which may take 4-12 months, dealing with the 'pre emptive strike' risk.
Your party leader openly and deliberately lied to parliament on a number of occasions. Should he now resign?
Shame you have iffy weather. Collioure is delightful in the sun
It would be no fun on the doorsteps, for sure.
69% think that staff who are issued with fines should resign.
64% think Tory MPs should vote that they have no confidence in the PM
60% think the PM should go straight away if they do
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1513865975686443011
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1513865889120194560
Which of course makes it more likely that Johnson at least stays.
But - he could say "I followed what I was assured was the advice at the time. Sadly it seems mistakes were made, and the police have seen fit to issue me with a FPN. I will of course accept this and consider the matter closed'.
Richmondshire would be an interesting by-election...
Putin claims Ukraine has deviated from agreements achieved at the talks in Istanbul — IFX
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1513867267397853184
Boris has been an excellent PM in the round, he has handled the biggest issues (Ukraine, Covid, Brexit) extremely well.
But lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
As an analogy, its like an excellent employee who hits all the KPIs who goes on a bender and attacks a colleague - it is gross misconduct, they have to go, even if they've been hitting their KPIs.
So relevant transferrable skills.
Its really very simple. Either standards matter or they don't. Principles. The Truth.
Maybe this metaphor has gone too far…
Last throw of the dice.
Also - excellent timing in a non-PMQs week.
So Labour supporters cannot lecture Tories on PMs automatically resigning when they mislead the House
Over to the conservative mps now
Carrie has received one as well
Do you agree I called it right saying it would get this close though.
Here’s the kicker, Malmsy, Le Pen could still win a close one without ever leading a poll. If it tightens up at the end, Macron is not quite in charge of all those anti establishment votes out there.
“French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen said she broadly supports sanctions against Russia, except when it comes to oil and gas supplies.”
In terms of betting on the outcome of French election, I ask you to consider two things. Firstly, when voters vote in secret in domestic election, are they swayed by international geo politics, or is it the self interest for themselves and family, in first instance, stretching out to street, neighbourhood, and the self interest of town and country before international concerns?
Secondly, if polls tighten late on and Macron looks beatable, does it encourage would be Melenchon abstentions to rethink a vote bringing down Macron?
This is the country which invented the guillotine, and they have, in a way, used it on so many of their leaders to this day, they just can’t help themselves.
Thanks for the reply and challenging me though. But I’m not just “saying” stuff I’m trying to explain why something could happen. Do you see my point?
Politically its very different, but the US aren't involved in the politics of it.
But your former party set this bar pretty low and HYUFD is right. Blair, at best misled Parliament, and didn’t have the principle to resign.
It’s symptomatic of modern politics I’m afraid. There is little honour across the board. Offences one party deems as resigning matters the other just dismisses.
Society gets the politicians we deserve. It’s been a grim path from Blair to Johnson?
Post duplicated, therefore deleted.
If you accept Ian Dunt's argument, then speeding fines would result in you leaving office.
But you can disagree and still want Boris and/or Sunak to leave.
She knew to fight battles she could win.
In the 1980s of course NATO stopped at West Berlin not the Baltic States.
When the USSR put missiles in Cuba JFK also avoided war and found a diplomatic solution
He doesn’t know exactly what he’s been fined for, apparently
(So it’s not being ruled out)
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1513869912254595074