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Not the sharpest tool in the Tory box – politicalbetting.com

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,672

    Carnyx said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    10m
    No 10: “The Met have now explained that the FPN issued to the PM will be in relation to the following incident: On 19 June 2020 at the Cabinet Room 10 Downing Street between 1400 and 1500 you participated in a gathering of two or more people indoors in the Cabinet Room at 10DS.”

    Bloody hell! The PM in the Cabinet Room. At 10 Downing Street? For an hour? What the hell as he doing there?
    I think it means "at some time between" not "for this period" but am not at all sure.
    So could be from 14:03 to 14:05 then? Technically.
    Depends how quickly he can eat a generous slice of cake and neck the beer.

    Seriously, though, the copperese provided by the Met does need to be translated by someone who knows.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    What about all the bloody other incidents?

    I'm hoping against hope that all the top management of the DfE are still fired, even if the Met couldn't be bothered to fine them.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    10m
    No 10: “The Met have now explained that the FPN issued to the PM will be in relation to the following incident: On 19 June 2020 at the Cabinet Room 10 Downing Street between 1400 and 1500 you participated in a gathering of two or more people indoors in the Cabinet Room at 10DS.”

    Bloody hell! The PM in the Cabinet Room. At 10 Downing Street? For an hour? What the hell was he doing there?
    A very good question given his unsuitability for office.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Nigelb said:

    Stereodog said:

    mwadams said:

    Applicant said:

    mwadams said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the whole misleading Parliament thing.
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1513871655482929163
    Rishi Sunak, 7 December 2021: “No, I did not attend any parties”

    Its not a lie if he didn't think anything he attended was a party.

    Breaking the law is more serious than that.
    There was a cake. And a singing of Happy Birthday. By Rishi Sunak.

    If he didn't think that was a party...
    I've had cake and sang happy birthday while at work before. Still thought of it as work, not a party.

    If wishing a colleague a happy birthday, while in the office, while at a work meeting is a "party" then you and I have different interpretations of the word party.
    Even if that is true, it is hard to argue it was ‘reasonably necessary for work purposes,’ which was the relevant law and should have been comprehensible even to this lot.

    However, Johnson then has to explain how raising his glass of beer to a camera while wishing somebody happy birthday in a non-office location wasn’t a party!
    I would strongly suggest that Boris's opponents avoid detailed arguments about what is or is not a party - it risks clouding the issue which should be very simple: he imposed draconian restrictions on the rest of us, and then failed to follow them. In which case, he felt that either (a) it was safe to ignore the restrictions because they were unnecessary; or (b) the restrictions shouldn't apply just to him (possibly through use of what he thought was a loophole.

    Either way, he needs to go. Whether he lied to Parliament is moot.
    This is *not* about the parties any more. Unless he is able to overturn the FPN, they are not in doubt (legally). This is now purely about the layers of lies. No-one should mention the party. Just the FPN and the lies.
    No, the lies are irrelevant and distracting. It's about breaking the law.
    AIUI there's no obligation to resign for that. But the thing that *does* oblige him to resign is lying to Parliament, under the ministerial code. So "breaking the law" is in fact a distraction from the resigning offence.
    Lawmakers can not be lawbreakers, so that is a resigning offence.

    Lying to Parliament has not been proven. It doesn't need to be though, lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
    1. "I did not attend a party"
    2. Fined for attending a party
    3. Q.E.D.

    Proven.
    2. Fined for attending a party breaking the law.

    Fines have nothing to do with parties, it has to do with the law. Lawbreaking does not require parties.
    The party was the gathering that was illegal. If it had been considered a work meeting there would have been no fine. It was not work according to the police. Because of cake and "Happy Birthday"
    That doesn't prove it was a party, it proves the law was broken. As I said all along.

    You can break the law even without a party.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I think people are misinterpreting your comments as being pro Boris. The fact that he has broken the law is the most damning thing. To quote Marge Simpson it doesn't matter if the event was a party, shindig, hootenanny or a box social. Boris broke his own COVID laws and lied about doing so. Trying to define what to call the event is just playing his game.
    The fact that he has broken the law means bugger all, everybody has at some point. It's the fact that he has been caught is the problem.

    When was the last time you broke a law that you created and insisted everyone follow?

    daft question Im not an MP. But Ill guarantee just about everyone on PB today has broken a law at some time.

    No, you're not an MP or the PM. That's the point.

    ....I'm just enjoying the sweet ooze of hypocrisy
    Pretty well a requirement for voting Tory at the moment.
    pretty well a requirement for politics
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,672

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    There is a war going on.

    We can sack Boris later.
    Mr Johnson's hero would never have been PM if that policy had previously been followed.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940
    MISTY said:

    From the Staggers, unpaywalled. It’s worth a read in full:

    It’s now official. For the first time a British prime minister has been found to have committed a criminal act while in office…

    …Johnson will not do the honourable thing and resign… But can even a politician as utterly shameless as he survive this ignominy? Can even this deeply compromised and corrupted Conservative parliamentary party ignore his egregious conduct?…

    … Johnson’s apologists will protest that the Prime Minister cannot possibly be ousted in the midst of a war between Russia and Ukraine…

    … Rishi Sunak’s implosion over his wife’s tax avoidance, and the fact that he himself has now been fined for attending lockdown parties, will make it even harder for Tory backbenchers to remove their leader… and there simply are no other plausible contenders in the cabinet. Liz Truss for prime minister, anyone? Priti Patel? It’s unlikely.

    But the price the Tories would pay for protecting the Prime Minister would be enormous. How could they possibly set such a dreadful precedent, such a terrible example, by allowing a Prime Minister who has committed a crime and lied about it to remain in office? How could they possibly portray themselves as the party of law and order ever again? How could they possibly justify such a course to furious constituents who sacrificed so much, and who were unable to attend the deaths, funerals, weddings and births of loved ones during the lockdowns? Why should any British citizen trust, respect or listen to Johnson ever again?…

    …As for the argument that Johnson should not be replaced in wartime, I would turn it on its head. How can we demonstrate the moral, practical and political superiority of Western democracy over Putin’s dictatorship if we spare a leader who breaks his own laws, lies to parliament and takes the people for fools?


    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/we-cannot-have-a-criminal-prime-minister

    On top of this, Johnson the other day reserved the right to introduce a new lockdown if he deemed it fit.

    Surely he has no authority or credibility to do that whatsoever.
    There aren’t going to be any more lockdowns.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,672
    This thead has had a FPN but did not attend a party, oh no definitely not, no siree.
  • Options
    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    Do not get the argument that this is not the time to change the leader, after all France may change its President in 12 days time!!
    In any case there would probably not be a leadership election, it would be a time to rally round one person, Truss or Gove, they can decide who is Leader and Deputy between them.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,195
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    It's still essentially a matter of opinion: Johnson & Sunak think gatherings were lawful; Met Police think otherwise...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1513882787778072576
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,417

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    There is a war going on.

    We can sack Boris later.
    But "we" won't, will we?

    If the war ends in success, he won't go becuase he will have just been associated with a great success.

    If the war grinds on, he won't go because the war will still be going on.

    There will never be a good time to tell Boris that he has to go.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    It's still essentially a matter of opinion: Johnson & Sunak think gatherings were lawful; Met Police think otherwise...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1513882787778072576

    It's a bit like Captain Rum's crew, isn't it?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited April 2022

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
    Oh it's not all bad. He's got people like you who'll lick his hoop for free.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    It's still essentially a matter of opinion: Johnson & Sunak think gatherings were lawful; Met Police think otherwise...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1513882787778072576

    If only there was some independent body that could judge such matters.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,167

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    10m
    No 10: “The Met have now explained that the FPN issued to the PM will be in relation to the following incident: On 19 June 2020 at the Cabinet Room 10 Downing Street between 1400 and 1500 you participated in a gathering of two or more people indoors in the Cabinet Room at 10DS.”

    You can see why he thought it was ok. Literally in the Cabinet room with staff.

    I know there is a colossal amount of anger about this, but it shows the absurdity of the laws for what they were.
    The restrictions which people so diligently tried to follow (and those at the top didn't) were just fundamentally stupid. So you could have had a legitimate meeting, 2 m distance around the table for work 1 till 2, then when someone popped out their sandwiches it became a gathering and illegal, despite there arguably being no change in the risk (you can argue over longer meeting, more risk if you want).

    The problem was the laws, and they wrote the bloody things.

    I have no respect for Johnson left, so whether he stays or goes makes no difference but my god he should go and go now.

    But he wont.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    There is a war going on.

    We can sack Boris later.
    But "we" won't, will we?

    If the war ends in success, he won't go becuase he will have just been associated with a great success.

    If the war grinds on, he won't go because the war will still be going on.

    There will never be a good time to tell Boris that he has to go.
    There is never a good time to change PM. There will always be something that means there will be turbulence or difficulty replacing them.

    There is a right time, and a wrong time.

    The wrong time is most of the time.

    The right time is when he has been found guilty of a criminal offence that he created...
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,552
    dixiedean said:

    Fines in relation to June birthday party says Number 10.

    Considering just how "reliable" a source No. 10 is, does this mean the fines were NOT b-day related?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,417
    Carnyx said:

    This thead has had a FPN but did not attend a party, oh no definitely not, no siree.

    You mean it's going to carry on for years?
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    ydoethur said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    10m
    No 10: “The Met have now explained that the FPN issued to the PM will be in relation to the following incident: On 19 June 2020 at the Cabinet Room 10 Downing Street between 1400 and 1500 you participated in a gathering of two or more people indoors in the Cabinet Room at 10DS.”

    Bloody hell! The PM in the Cabinet Room. At 10 Downing Street? For an hour? What the hell was he doing there?
    A very good question given his unsuitability for office.
    Ha. Very good
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
    Oh it's not all bad. He's got people like you who'll lick his hoop for free.
    Yeah whatever
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Next Tory leader:

    Truss
    Tugendhat
    Hunt
    Wallace
    Mordaunt
    Javid
    Sunak

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    And Harper. ERG stable installed last Tory leader, they should be in the frame to win this one too with their runner?
    Because of Ukraine, I’d think there’d be pressure to make it a coronation. To me that says Truss, Wallace, or Tugendhat (though his lack of a Gvt experience might be the issue, and I doubt he’ll commit to be sufficiently gung-ho on the NI Protocol). Hunt might squeeze in by outflanking them on the right re: NI.
    A 4 candidate coronation then…
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,782
    If Johnson got a FPN for the birthday party then surely there will be more given the other events seem more like ones he would have known about .
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,139

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    10m
    No 10: “The Met have now explained that the FPN issued to the PM will be in relation to the following incident: On 19 June 2020 at the Cabinet Room 10 Downing Street between 1400 and 1500 you participated in a gathering of two or more people indoors in the Cabinet Room at 10DS.”

    Bloody hell! The PM in the Cabinet Room. At 10 Downing Street? For an hour? What the hell was he doing there?
    The notion that Johnson is ever "at work" is the most laughable part of that defence.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    mwadams said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden’s inconvenient Covid victory
    Were millions of people denied freedom for nothing?
    BY JOHAN ANDERBERG"

    https://unherd.com/2022/04/swedens-inconvenient-covid-victory/

    Or read https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5

    Which should we trust on matters of science? Nature or Unherd?
    Neither. There are no popes in science.
    However, as non-specialists, we should probably weight the peer reviewed journal higher than what people "reckon" on "the digital magazine of ideas, culture and opinion", as we interrogate the topic and draw our own conclusion.
    No.

    If Sweden's COVID policy was demonstrably flawed, then it must be possible to provide a simple plot or statistical argument or piece of evidence that can convince the (reasonably intelligent) non-specialist.

    It is fundamentally unsound to say this article is in Nature and this article is on unherd, therefore I trust the former.

    Far better to say the article in Nature convinced me because of this graph or this statistic or this analysis ...

    (I have no opinion on Sweden's policy myself, I haven't looked at the data with any care. But, as a high-functioning troglodyte, I can say how much enjoyed our lock-downs).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    Depends what the polls say over the next week. If he keeps the Labour lead under 10% he can stay
    For an alleged Christian you have a remarkably transactional approach to the notion of right and wrong.
    Christianity is based on forgiveness as much as Old Testament condemnation, provided the perpetrator shows remorse
    If Mr Khan shows remorse does he deserve to avoid a custodial sentence and retain his seat in Parliament?

    Asking for a friend.
    You can always be brought to Christ, even if in prison
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,619

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
    But the fallout from Brexit was never going to be benign and it was going to go on and on. It was difficult to believe it could be overshadowed by anything and then we get a pandemic and war with Russia. Who could have predicted either and both of which also have huge economic impacts.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    Depends what the polls say over the next week. If he keeps the Labour lead under 10% he can stay
    For an alleged Christian you have a remarkably transactional approach to the notion of right and wrong.
    Christianity is based on forgiveness as much as Old Testament condemnation, provided the perpetrator shows remorse
    If Mr Khan shows remorse does he deserve to avoid a custodial sentence and retain his seat in Parliament?

    Asking for a friend.
    You can always be brought to Christ, even if in prison
    Sounds like a cruel and unusual punishment
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    Depends what the polls say over the next week. If he keeps the Labour lead under 10% he can stay
    For an alleged Christian you have a remarkably transactional approach to the notion of right and wrong.
    Christianity is based on forgiveness as much as Old Testament condemnation, provided the perpetrator shows remorse
    If Mr Khan shows remorse does he deserve to avoid a custodial sentence and retain his seat in Parliament?

    Asking for a friend.
    You can always be brought to Christ, even if in prison
    Sounds like a cruel and unusual punishment
    Says a Muslim
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
    But the fallout from Brexit was never going to be benign and it was going to go on and on. It was difficult to believe it could be overshadowed by anything and then we get a pandemic and war with Russia. Who could have predicted either and both of which also have huge economic impacts.
    On the scale of what came next Brexit is an irrelevance.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,619
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    An honest question for an honest answer:

    Of all you right of centre posters on here, which always feels to me like a tidal surge, is there any one of you who does not think the Prime Minister should now resign?

    Depends what the polls say over the next week. If he keeps the Labour lead under 10% he can stay
    For an alleged Christian you have a remarkably transactional approach to the notion of right and wrong.
    Christianity is based on forgiveness as much as Old Testament condemnation, provided the perpetrator shows remorse
    You mean you forgive him provided he wins you elections.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Khan & Johnson have been completely outmanoeuvred in the disgraced Tory MP stakes by "Everybody's Talking About Jamie."

    First, Jamie will go down in history as the first openly trans MP. Second, he has generated sympathetic articles in outlets as diverse as HuffPo and Cosmopolitan and the BBC and the Guardian. And third, he is being lauded as brave and courageous and pioneering and a LGBTQ+ hero. And fourth, he has become a protected species, like the pine marten ... but much, much fatter, of course.

    That little business with the police and the drink driving charge and the accident on Church Road in Llanblethian is all forgotten, except by uncouth renegades like me and @Mexicanpete

    Now, Boris ... Dr Jamie Wallis has shown you the way to redemption and the forgiveness of past sins ... the first openly trans PM beckons.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,619

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    algarkirk said:

    This is a fascinating affair, although I don’t expect any immediate consequences.

    Rishi is now completely tarnished. After the tax revelations, he’s now exposed as both a grifter and a liar. He could, of course, bring down the PM if he resigned. But he won’t, because he’s also a coward who prefers the perks of high office.

    Truss, or perhaps a Truss-Javid-Wallace axis, could also depose Johnson. Again, they won’t, as they fear a selectorate which has now become totally inured to lying and public malfeasance. See HYUFD who doesn’t even bother to provide excuses any more.

    If I was a thinking Tory MP, I’d be hoping both go. The Tories can win the next election with a “fresh slate”. They can’t with these guys remaining in office.

    My feeling is that these will be questions for 2023, and that therefore Boris exit 2023 may be a bit of value.

    An outcome I outlined below. I think it a good bet. 2024 is way to late to depose him. 2022 only happens if Ukraine gets a rapid result, one way or the other.

    I expect Boris to - ultimately - announce that he will resign, in time for the new leader to be in place by Conference 2023.
    maybe he will, the fates have not looked kindly on his period in office. he's had pestilence and war best leg it before famine and death get going.
    I'm not sure I agree. He has had a pretty good war (except for refugees) and the pandemic was a bit mixed (definitely ignoring parties), but if neither were there it would be non stop brexit fallout. Currently any issue can be blamed on Russia, COVID or Brexit and only one of those can be definitely laid at Boris' door.
    Of course, but I suspect Boris was hoping for a benign environment where he could play Lord Bountiful of Falstaff. Instead has landed a much meaner period of world history.
    But the fallout from Brexit was never going to be benign and it was going to go on and on. It was difficult to believe it could be overshadowed by anything and then we get a pandemic and war with Russia. Who could have predicted either and both of which also have huge economic impacts.
    On the scale of what came next Brexit is an irrelevance.
    Yep exactly my point. So from Boris's point of view a let off. COVID and Russia were not his doing.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775


    Khan & Johnson have been completely outmanoeuvred in the disgraced Tory MP stakes by "Everybody's Talking About Jamie."

    First, Jamie will go down in history as the first openly trans MP. Second, he has generated sympathetic articles in outlets as diverse as HuffPo and Cosmopolitan and the BBC and the Guardian. And third, he is being lauded as brave and courageous and pioneering and a LGBTQ+ hero. And fourth, he has become a protected species, like the pine marten ... but much, much fatter, of course.

    That little business with the police and the drink driving charge and the accident on Church Road in Llanblethian is all forgotten, except by uncouth renegades like me and @Mexicanpete

    Now, Boris ... Dr Jamie Wallis has shown you the way to redemption and the forgiveness of past sins ... the first openly trans PM beckons.

    The funny thing is, I didn't know about the legal trouble he was in until all this more recent trans stuff. Or if I did I immediately forgot about it.
    Now he's back in the news because of his gender, I'm also aware of the incident. So if there's an attempt to deflect there's also a bit of the Streisand Effect too.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited April 2022
    ..
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Farooq said:


    Khan & Johnson have been completely outmanoeuvred in the disgraced Tory MP stakes by "Everybody's Talking About Jamie."

    First, Jamie will go down in history as the first openly trans MP. Second, he has generated sympathetic articles in outlets as diverse as HuffPo and Cosmopolitan and the BBC and the Guardian. And third, he is being lauded as brave and courageous and pioneering and a LGBTQ+ hero. And fourth, he has become a protected species, like the pine marten ... but much, much fatter, of course.

    That little business with the police and the drink driving charge and the accident on Church Road in Llanblethian is all forgotten, except by uncouth renegades like me and @Mexicanpete

    Now, Boris ... Dr Jamie Wallis has shown you the way to redemption and the forgiveness of past sins ... the first openly trans PM beckons.

    The funny thing is, I didn't know about the legal trouble he was in until all this more recent trans stuff. Or if I did I immediately forgot about it.
    Now he's back in the news because of his gender, I'm also aware of the incident. So if there's an attempt to deflect there's also a bit of the Streisand Effect too.
    Um, I might have misgendered Jamie here.. I wasn't thinking, nothing meant by it, just careless.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340
    Two things can be true at the same time:

    1) The PM should go if he was done by his own rules.

    2) The rules we were all governed by were clearly stupid if those stuck working in the office can be stung for having gathered to sign happy birthday or even to have a beer at the close of play. We must never allow them to be replicated.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,139

    Stereodog said:

    mwadams said:

    Applicant said:

    mwadams said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the whole misleading Parliament thing.
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1513871655482929163
    Rishi Sunak, 7 December 2021: “No, I did not attend any parties”

    Its not a lie if he didn't think anything he attended was a party.

    Breaking the law is more serious than that.
    There was a cake. And a singing of Happy Birthday. By Rishi Sunak.

    If he didn't think that was a party...
    I've had cake and sang happy birthday while at work before. Still thought of it as work, not a party.

    If wishing a colleague a happy birthday, while in the office, while at a work meeting is a "party" then you and I have different interpretations of the word party.
    Even if that is true, it is hard to argue it was ‘reasonably necessary for work purposes,’ which was the relevant law and should have been comprehensible even to this lot.

    However, Johnson then has to explain how raising his glass of beer to a camera while wishing somebody happy birthday in a non-office location wasn’t a party!
    I would strongly suggest that Boris's opponents avoid detailed arguments about what is or is not a party - it risks clouding the issue which should be very simple: he imposed draconian restrictions on the rest of us, and then failed to follow them. In which case, he felt that either (a) it was safe to ignore the restrictions because they were unnecessary; or (b) the restrictions shouldn't apply just to him (possibly through use of what he thought was a loophole.

    Either way, he needs to go. Whether he lied to Parliament is moot.
    This is *not* about the parties any more. Unless he is able to overturn the FPN, they are not in doubt (legally). This is now purely about the layers of lies. No-one should mention the party. Just the FPN and the lies.
    No, the lies are irrelevant and distracting. It's about breaking the law.
    AIUI there's no obligation to resign for that. But the thing that *does* oblige him to resign is lying to Parliament, under the ministerial code. So "breaking the law" is in fact a distraction from the resigning offence.
    Lawmakers can not be lawbreakers, so that is a resigning offence.

    Lying to Parliament has not been proven. It doesn't need to be though, lawmakers can not be lawbreakers.
    1. "I did not attend a party"
    2. Fined for attending a party
    3. Q.E.D.

    Proven.
    2. Fined for attending a party breaking the law.

    Fines have nothing to do with parties, it has to do with the law. Lawbreaking does not require parties.
    The party was the gathering that was illegal. If it had been considered a work meeting there would have been no fine. It was not work according to the police. Because of cake and "Happy Birthday"
    That doesn't prove it was a party, it proves the law was broken. As I said all along.

    You can break the law even without a party.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I think people are misinterpreting your comments as being pro Boris. The fact that he has broken the law is the most damning thing. To quote Marge Simpson it doesn't matter if the event was a party, shindig, hootenanny or a box social. Boris broke his own COVID laws and lied about doing so. Trying to define what to call the event is just playing his game.
    The fact that he has broken the law means bugger all, everybody has at some point. It's the fact that he has been caught is the problem.

    When was the last time you broke a law that you created and insisted everyone follow?

    daft question Im not an MP. But Ill guarantee just about everyone on PB today has broken a law at some time.

    No, you're not an MP or the PM. That's the point.

    Moreover @Alanbrooke didn't make the law broken with such cavalier abandon by said lawmaker, Mr Johnson.
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