Marine Le Pen thanks the French people for putting her into the second round against "the outgoing President".
The last time someone came from second to win was 1995, and they were only 2.5% down and one of the mainstream parties. It also happened in 1981, again from 2.5% down.
Edit: 1974 was a win from a far distant second though.
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.
All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
Hmmm.
How many of us were happy going to Spain on holiday whilst it was run by Franco? How many of us would be happy going to Russia now? Should it matter?
I'm, as Zsa-Zsa Gabor may have said to the end of her days, too young to have had the option.
I did go to Spain when Franco was in power, but was still in nappies at the time, so have an excuse. I greatly enjoyed the 2018 World Cup and am keen to see more of Russia. It has long been on my list to do the Trans-Siberian, but that have to put that off for a few years.
Wife and I were last year planning the Trans-Siberian for next summer. Obviously not now, and not while Putin is alive.
Maybe Lviv this summer instead. Ukraine needs the foreign money.
I wanted to go to St Petersburg
hats probably out for some time.
That was on the list too, probably for the recently-announced F1 race there.
That’s not to be, either.
I had 3 weeks in Russia planned for this September. Will go to Ukraine if at all possible though.
Lviv, Odesa, Chernivitsi and the Carpathians all sound well worth a look, and should be fairly undamaged.
Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.
Hope to God he is wrong.
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR 2. It goes nuclear.
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.
Mate, if you think Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and there's no response from NATO you're in cloud cuckoo land.
I have never suggested that 'there is no response from NATO', I am saying that the British nuclear deterrent would not be deployed in that circumstance. Trident is Trident. Its concept is simple - 'Launch a nuclear attack on Britain, and from the bunker, the UK PM will authorise a Trident strike on you' = deterrent. But we have a ridiculous scenario on here of Trident supporters wanting it to be what it ain't. You have HYUFD insisting that Thatcher could have used it on Argentina in The Falklands, now we have Ukraine-watchers insisting that it could be used on Russia without them striking or intending to strike us. If you want a flexible suite of nuclear options, that isn't Trident. Have the balls to support either the cancellation of Trident, or the acquiring of significant additional tactical nuclear capabilities that we do not currently have as well as Trident.
As I am not 'au fait' with the French procedures is Macron safe or does Le Pen have a chance and if so a realistic one ?
Le Pen still has a chance ,
She really doesn't
After Brexit and Trump it would be premature to write off her chances but today’s projections so far are encouraging for Macron.
After Brexit and Trump Le Pen lost by a stonking amount to Macron.
She made forward progress but lost big. She may make further progress and lose by less, but I just cannot see what has changed so much in 5 years to overturn such a first round lead. Yes, Macron is the incumbent, she has pivoted on a number of positions, but it's a big deficit.
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.
All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
That’s pretty much aligned with what I assumed. So I can spend my time more productively (currently reading an interesting biography of Peter Thiel)
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
You live in a world of make believe
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.
No. Just no.
He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidence
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
He was a semi-demi-Fascist* dictator, who overthrew the democratically elected government of Spain in a violent coup, initiating a horrible civil war that kills thousands. He caused thousands more to be murdered - including, some say, his rivals on his own side.
He allied with Germany, who created the following piece of art -
He ran Spain with an iron grip until his death. All opposition was banned and many, many were imprisoned for not being in the Franco fan club.
He was an utter thunderknut. He improved the world by dying.
*He tried to distinguish himself and Francoism from the hard core Fascists (see the Blue Legion), but took many of their policies and mixed them up with hard core reactionary social policies. Forward to the 18th Century, pretty much.
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.
All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
Hmmm.
How many of us were happy going to Spain on holiday whilst it was run by Franco? How many of us would be happy going to Russia now? Should it matter?
I'm, as Zsa-Zsa Gabor may have said to the end of her days, too young to have had the option.
I did go to Spain when Franco was in power, but was still in nappies at the time, so have an excuse. I greatly enjoyed the 2018 World Cup and am keen to see more of Russia. It has long been on my list to do the Trans-Siberian, but that have to put that off for a few years.
Wife and I were last year planning the Trans-Siberian for next summer. Obviously not now, and not while Putin is alive.
Maybe Lviv this summer instead. Ukraine needs the foreign money.
I wanted to go to St Petersburg
hats probably out for some time.
That was on the list too, probably for the recently-announced F1 race there.
That’s not to be, either.
I had 3 weeks in Russia planned for this September. Will go to Ukraine if at all possible though.
Lviv, Odesa, Chernivitsi and the Carpathians all sound well worth a look, and should be fairly undamaged.
Can you take an NLAW as hand luggage or does it need to go in the hold?
If Macron gets to 24% it means he has under-performed all the polling. Given how tight the R2 polling is between him and MLP that is very worrying for those of us who would prefer not to have a Putin apologist with access to all NATO’s military secrets living next door
you mean another apologist
Macron already is one
He's not been as resolute as Johnson has, but he has been better than the leaders of Italy, Germany, Japan, or a host of other countries. He has shipped weapons to Ukraine. And he has backed sanctions.
Now, could he have done more, such as getting Total to fully withdraw from Russia, and pressuring other state owned businesses such as Renault to pull out? Could he have backed a full ban on all energy imports from Russia? Sure he could. There's lots more he could have done.
But to claim that Macron and Le Pen are on the same page as far as Putinphilia is patently ridiculous.
Its a slow Sunday and its PB, we have to have a bit of excitement or else its Citys disallowed goal.
But lets be clear hes currently not just President of France, he's le grand fromage of Europe and so far he's done very little but do Maria Zakharovas job for her.
Wow. That's a spectacularly piece of "whataboutery".
I didnt say it Macron did, so much for solidarite commune in a time of crisis/
It is ridiculous whataboutery, and you know it.
Because the discussion wasn't about whether Macron is a cock, or whether he insulted the Polish PM, or whatever. It is about an equivalence in Putinaphilia between Le Pen and Macron.
And there is no equivalence.
Macron might not like Putin but he does still want his business and would happily sell the easten Europeans to get it.
And yet France has never been the block behind any of the EU sanctions - that would be Italy, Hungary and Germany. Nor have they been backward in sending arms.
So basically, it's an assertion without any actual evidence.
France is suffering - like the rest of the world - with a cost of living crisis. Macron is in a tight election. He could easily have sold out the Ukrainians for cheaper petrol at the pump. He did not.
Now, am I claiming he's somehow a paragon of virtue? Nope. He's got his eyes very firmly fixed on French national interest. And he's also anglophobe whose statements on AZ were beyond irresponsible.
But he has not sold out the Eastern Europeans. Maybe he will. Maybe he won't. But you don't know. And your attempts to claim that he is somehow equivalent with a woman who plastered Putin over her campaign literature really tells us more about you than anything else.
Macron having his eyes fixed firmly on the French national interest does not make him less virtuous, it makes him doing his job. If the leader of the UK doesn't have his eyes there, that's an issue.
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
You live in a world of make believe
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.
No. Just no.
He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidence
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
I'd stick him on your list of people to read about. I make him one of the last 3 Dictators in Western Europe - Greece, Portugal, Spain all went in the mid-1970s.. I've left out Albania.
Won a bloody civil war in the late 1930s, with a leftist volunteer International Brigade opposition forces with many feel was heroic. 50k volunteers. 15k died. Echoes of Ukraine in some respects.
To approach the Spanish Civil War, I don't know who to advise you to read - except to approach it perhaps look out some of the reporting from Martha Gellhorn (I have no idea where to find it - New Yorker archives?) or read For Whom the Bell Tolls by Hemingway.
Others will know far more than me on that, and I would welcome recommendations myself.
I’ve started Beevor’s Battle for Spain twice so far…
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.
All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
Somehow Stalin never gets a look in.
Please, everyone, stop talking about how bad fascists are, it seems to upset Alanbrooke because reasons.
Alanbrooke makes a perfectly reasonable point. In the great league table of fucking rabid genocidal nutters Stalin wins hands down against all comers. Yet there is a faction of the left that seems to hate having this pointed out. Your reaction would seem to indicate you are part of this faction.
Of course that doesn't for a second excuse the right wing fucking rabid genocidal nutters but we still live in a world where it is acceptable to display the Hammer and Sickle but not the Swastika when both should be equally offensive.
Why are you all silent on Emperor Hirohito's forces massacring 14 million people in China and Asia more widely. I've always suspected this place to be a hotbed of Sinophobic fascists, and I guess that's now confirmed.
Hirohito and the boys were slackers - the War of the Triple Alliance is believed to have killed 80%+of the male 16+ population of Paraguay. And half the women.
I have always suspected PB of being a hotbed of Brazilian Imperialism....
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https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1513222960412303369?s=20&t=E1E1aZZAibAgmFK18IZADw
Edit: 1974 was a win from a far distant second though.
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