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Will Macron prove to be quasi effective against Le Pen today? – politicalbetting.com
Will Macron prove to be quasi effective against Le Pen today? – politicalbetting.com
France, presidential election today:Turnout at 12:00 CEST…2007: 31.2%2012: 28.3%2017: 28.5%2022: 25.5% (-3) Source: Ministry of the InteriorMore: https://t.co/oL97q6lO3I pic.twitter.com/wCn9HLAfI3
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However it had collapsed to only 15% in Paris by lunchtime
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892?s=20&t=YOSSHY7RpF1dyOPL-fO2uQ
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
On the positive side, the UK's unlikely to see London be quite as important going forward.
I'd forgotten how close she was to not making the second round. And my word the socialists have had a bad time of it since Hollande.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Last I heard, they were planning on building a pipeline to the Egyptian LNG facilities, which is not a stupid idea, as decline rates on the Egyptian fields have been somewhat worse than expected.
On the other hand, that is putting an awful lot of power over Israeli exports in the hands of a long time enemy.
Be very surprised to see a repeat in two weeks.
A lot of rural France is quite left wing.
There are many villages with strong Communist traditions until relatively recently. Moreover, Le Pen vote skews much younger than would be imagined by many.
Rural France skews older.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_diagonal
It will be a shock if he manages to hold on and defy political logic about how to follow up your first win.
Been since the mid 90s since the winner of the first did not win the second it appears.
In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.
Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).
There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.
Paris is a typically left wing capital city. But, Brittany, Gascony, and much of rural Western France tend to be left wing, too.
Macron = Rishi. Filthy rich, nice smile, once massively popular, now more is known of the fresh face, regarded so out of touch with the working class struggle so as to be toxic, so out of touch with bourgeois dislike for EU and immigration so as to be toxic.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.
18 to 24 66%
25 to 34. 68%
35 to 49. 73%
50 to 59. 76%
60 to 69. 81%
70+. 82%
The difficulties in extrapolating too much from turnout in 2022 is whether lower/higher turnout effects those groups in the same way or whether this effects them differently .
DONG! The sound of Kle Finally getting it.
For a spiffing red mullet fish lunch. By the blue sunlit sea. With a brilliant dill salad and Turkish coffee. And four large glasses of excellent white wine. And good chat with PB
I’ve had mediocre lunches costing 4 times that; this is a lunch I will remember for a long time
Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
Older people are much more pro EU and anti the far right in France . And that group is more likely to vote .
But the the English welsh border (with consequent political differences) dates back to the Anglo Saxon invasions of Britain (if not before)
It would be fascinating to find the oldest politico-cultural frontier in the world, that is not obviously explained by geography (eg islands or big rivers)
Maybe Israel?
the only winning move is not to play
This is how French politics works. Fillion had about 20% last time, when pecresse platform swung right this time, macron gobbled half her vote and everyone said pecresse got it wrong. SHE GOT IT RIGHT. For a pecresse or macron to have won this one from centre right they needed to tack to the right, at least more sceptical to EU.
The chancellor’s family’s fortune being shielded from his tax collectors would smell rotten in any circumstances. The current context made it absolutely toxic.
For an Instagram politician who is an obsessive curator of his personal image, it took the chancellor a remarkably long time to grasp how untenable this was. The statement announced she would be doing so [paying UK tax] in future, claiming now to “understand and appreciate the British sense of fairness”. A growing number of Tories had been privately saying that Mr Sunak could not remain at the Treasury if his wife didn’t change her tax status.
It will be even more of an issue whether a super-rich chancellor can be the man to persuade less affluent Britons that they will have to endure hard times. There’s much debate among Tories about why the chancellor failed to appreciate that his wife’s tax position was bound to cause uproar. Is it because he is so rich or because his political instincts are so poor that he could not see how this would look through the eyes of the electorate?
The two most senior members of the government have now scandalised the country. There’s a pattern to the behaviour of this government. Its leaders demand painful sacrifices of everyone else while claiming special privileges for themselves. That’s how they act because that’s how they think.
And the initial popularity of the first couple of years of Vichy, did a Rishi 🙂
That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack
I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff
I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
Just yes French pensioners are also more anti Le Pen than the French average as you say
Cancelling Russian culture is silly and counter productive for several reasons.
You saying there isn’t an element of truth in there? 😂
We would never be arguing about anything on here if it was so logical what’s a vote winner or loser.
We, PBers, don’t even have UK and US politics so logically nailed down, let alone the tribal vagaries of every other country!
44.76 %
In 2017 49.53%
I’m posting this as seen on twitter and can’t seem to find the official confirmation of this yet .
The Lossiemouth fishing fleet decamped to Lochinver in the 60s and the crews used to travel on Sunday evening by road to be ready to sail 1 minute after midnight, due to their observance of the sabbath
This changed when they moved to Peterhead and were at sea over the sabbath
Macron 1.18 / 1.25
Le Pen 4.2 / 6.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730
Smarkets, first round winner:
Macron 1.17 / 1.26
Le Pen 5.5 / 7,2
https://smarkets.com/event/42417380/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022-first-round-winner
I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
For Tom backers, and ERG backing Harper, Rishi demise only makes VONC more likely not less likely? Big Dog entering a new Sphere of Danger for next ten weeks?
Cummings might start posting from the Book of Revelations.
Interestingly though, better than the game Leon was playing, I presume the Wikipedia has lined them up from most extreme left to most extreme right? So what are the subtle differences between the platforms? What are the French libdems or long standing liberal party?
And what did the French “Anarchist” grouping really believe in to have denounced Marxism as likely to result in dangerous anarchy?
and “in so much we can read across our innate socialised UKness” where do we sit on this spectrum?
I guess as right of centre, I would like the Macron, Pecresse, lessalle, Dupont positions most?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j3PbV-08rc&ab_channel=JohnDoyle
The only downsides are the cost and the fact it fixes your itinerary - you generally can't decide to miss a really wet day. But as you're staying in a hotel at the end of it, that's less important.
I've only got two national trails to do before I've completed all of them, and I'm seriously considering using a sherpa service for the Southern Upland Way - though it looks as though it's not a full service for the entire route. I want to enjoy the SUW.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April.
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
Which raises an interesting question. How many nuke hits should Western countries be willing to take in order to save Western civilization and defeat Russia's repulsive supremacist beliefs?
Modern down jackets are brilliant for these reasons. They keep you warm in the cold and dry in the wet, yet they are featherlight, and you can squash them into a daypack if needs be
You do need a guaranteed run of good weather tho. If you get real cold, and hard rain, then you need layers and layers and that means actual proper luggage which is a pain to carry
My problem would be books. I love to read real books, especially if they relate to where I am. But they are heavy
Izmir has been a revelation. What made me hate it at first is the same reason it is brilliant. Off puttingly ugly so no one bothers, yet actually fascinating, ridiculously cheap (5 star hotel: £60), surrounded by wild coast and superb history and with great public transport. Also, stuffed mussels. And 3 hour direct flights from Luton
I am going to return and do a piece for the Knappers’ Gazette
Macron is already seriously hostile. I doubt Le Pen would be worse
And a weakened, bewildered EU is in our favour
There is the Putin factor, however, if you are referring to that then fair enough
A Labour government might align the UK closer to the EEA again and in time future generations of Tories might accept that but this generation of Tories won't
The Franco-German motor is looking clapped out whoever wins.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.