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Will Macron prove to be quasi effective against Le Pen today? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.

    I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!


    Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.

    Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?

    That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack

    I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff

    I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
    I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.

    I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
    I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.
    It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.
    Several times I have had something travel next to me. The most impressive was a barn owl who flew close and parallel to me for a bit.
    For me it was a C130 parallel to and slightly below me on (I think) Loch Garry, A87 anyway. Couldn't keep up on a Ducati 748!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢

    It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaric
    They aren't whipping they are scrubbing (no contact) unless they want to be disqualified.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    I suspect that may be wishful thinking. At least as far as the most influential voters, the party members, are concerned.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    ping said:

    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.

    DT's Simon Heffer also saying that Sunak clearly does not understand politics.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    ping said:

    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.

    That is what it seems to come down to. 'How dare you?' seems to be his response
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    I doubt it, remember most Tory voters voted for Brexit even when Cameron was PM. Now some 2015 Tory Remain voters have gone Labour or LD and 2015 UKIP voters have mainly gone Tory, the Tory vote and membership is even more pro Brexit. Boris or no Boris.

    A Labour government might align the UK closer to the EEA again and in time future generations of Tories might accept that but this generation of Tories won't
    But Brexit was just a hazy fantasy when Cameron was leader. In the cold, harsh light of day are any Tories still tingly about it? I suspect most couldn't care less about having a Remainer leader now and might even find it therapeutic - a kind of release.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives voters
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
    Since Howard no PM has lasted longer than Morrison has managed already at not even 4 years, and that was a surprise. He will have done very well if he can hold on again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.

    I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!


    Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.

    Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?

    That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack

    I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff

    I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
    Everything is in my rucksack, which was small enough to be Ryanair hand luggage. All I’m carrying is enough underwear and t-shirts for a week, a couple of shirts and my washbag. I’ve got a (vey classy Fortnum & Mason) shopping bag to carry my daily beer and lunch and my phone battery pack. I’ve managed to attach my jacket to my rucksack, which is handy as it won’t fit inside. I expect my one pair of jeans will be able to walk home on their own!
    Cool

    Modern down jackets are brilliant for these reasons. They keep you warm in the cold and dry in the wet, yet they are featherlight, and you can squash them into a daypack if needs be

    You do need a guaranteed run of good weather tho. If you get real cold, and hard rain, then you need layers and layers and that means actual proper luggage which is a pain to carry

    My problem would be books. I love to read real books, especially if they relate to where I am. But they are heavy

    Izmir has been a revelation. What made me hate it at first is the same reason it is brilliant. Off puttingly ugly so no one bothers, yet actually fascinating, ridiculously cheap (5 star hotel: £60), surrounded by wild coast and superb history and with great public transport. Also, stuffed mussels. And 3 hour direct flights from Luton

    I am going to return and do a piece for the Knappers’ Gazette
    I wouldn't recommend a down jacket for any serious trekking. Useful for a stroll in a London park in December perhaps.

    As for books, invest in an audiobook subscription service. You can listen while you walk if you want. It makes it possible to have hundreds of books with you for no extra weight. It's obviously not as good as a physical book in some respects, but extremely convenient for travel.
    Down jackets are fine if you don’t mind them being a bit disposable. Ie you might shred one after a few trips. But they do the job

    I love Berghaus long sleeve zip up tops as layering. Easy to wash, perfect for adventures, smart enough to get away with at a bar (at a pinch) yet robust enough for real experiences

    Yet it seems they have discontinued them! Madness
  • HYUFD said:

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
    You mean you hope he will be reelected
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives voters
    Is that an autocorrect error for planet?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives voters
    Any conservative voters who commit heresy against HY are not and never were conservative voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
    You mean you hope he will be reelected
    In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP polling
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    ping said:

    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.

    That is what it seems to come down to. 'How dare you?' seems to be his response
    Failure to take responsibility seems to be a top-down trait of this Cabinet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.

    In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.

    Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).

    There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.

    Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.
    My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.

    Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
    Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.
    I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayr
    LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.

    In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.

    Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).

    There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.

    Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.
    My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.

    Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
    Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.
    There’s a Tesco superstore in Ullapool, I’m sure it’ll supply as much flaked Parmesan as anyone could eat.
    Exactly just bollox.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    No. Just no.
    He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidence
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hardy perennial tweets for the next few months.

    https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1513138781146210308
    https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1513139541691011073

    I’ve watched “normal” Republicans go from saying “Look, everyone knows Trump lost, just let him talk” to saying “Look, everyone knows there was something wrong with the election.”

    They never specify what was “wrong”, because all the specific claims have been discredited and rejected by courts. They just hang their hats on the vague sense that if lots of people believe something, it must be at least partly true.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.
    Very interesting question. Where would nationals of each country prefer to move to if forced to leave their own country?

    For me, I have chosen to live in the US. Assuming I'd have to choose somewhere other than either the US or UK, I'd probably chose either Ireland or Western Canada. The Maritimes are just too bleak for my taste, and even in Toronto, the winters are too fierce for me.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?
    HYUFD obviously thinks that failing to reconquer Gibraltar is a black mark against Franco.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.

    I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!


    Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.

    Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?

    That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack

    I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff

    I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
    I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.

    I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
    I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.
    It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.
    Highly unlikely it was the bike that scared the crap out of them

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢

    It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaric
    What other 2 died, it was only 2 late this morning.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.
    One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.

    Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.

    All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.

    I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!


    Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.

    Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?

    That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack

    I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff

    I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
    I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.

    I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
    I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.
    It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.
    Highly unlikely it was the bike that scared the crap out of them

    LOL. For eagles and kites, they'll fly off at 100m if you're walking, but you can drive up fairly close in a car before they spook. Same with foxes around us.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.

    All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.

    Surprising how long it took. Which indicates a considerable degree of media manipulation both before and after.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing press will of course love a Le Pen win just because she’s anti EU but a win for her would be terrible for the UK and the EU .

    Bad for the EU but in what way terrible for the UK?

    Macron is already seriously hostile. I doubt Le Pen would be worse

    And a weakened, bewildered EU is in our favour

    There is the Putin factor, however, if you are referring to that then fair enough
    A Europe drifting away from social democracy, liberal values and co-operation towards softhead national populism is not my idea of what's good for the UK.

    It's a bit like shitting your pants and thinking if others do the same then that improves your prospects.

    Which it doesn't.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
    You mean you hope he will be reelected
    In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP polling
    I am not arguing that - I am saying you want him re-elected
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
    don't think so, I was referring to myself looking over my shoulder...
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
    I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birds
  • algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.

    Norway?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    My pulses quickened yesterday when I heard in semi slumber on the radio that "Boris was facing jailtime".

    However ...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,217

    Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.

    All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.

    Some wise old politician (this was decades ago) pointed out that Head Boys often don't make it to the top in politics. If you are used to being promoted by others on the basis of your merits, there is something you don't develop in your temprament- some combination of emollience and sharp elbows- that is really useful for climbing greasy poles. And Head Boy is a funny role- in charge of something nebulous, but actually not in charge of anything since all the authority continues to rest with the adults.

    Rishi looks like another victim of that curse.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
    We would be in a terrifying situation but I think a similar level of strike would be delivered (game theory tit for tat) probably with a massive set of conventional strikes plus making it clear that a maximum nuclear attack was readied.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421

    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
    don't think so, I was referring to myself looking over my shoulder...
    Posting here will keep you young - look at Jack W!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    No. Brexit means Brexit!. No freedom of movement here.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.

    In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.

    Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).

    There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.

    Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.
    My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.

    Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
    Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.
    I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayr
    LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.

    Wow, that was a remarkably sensitive response given I was just doing the same thing you did.

    Calm down, dear, it was just a joke.
    Pity you do not recognise reciprocity
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.

    Norway?
    Schengen? Mornington Crescent!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.

    Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?

    The polls have turn back towards the government in April.

    image

    Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re elected
    You mean you hope he will be reelected
    In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP polling
    With what happened last time, and the polls already giving government better scores, I’d call it a toss up. But a toss up call makes the longer odds you can get the value bet?

    Last I looked the best PM was even Steven.
  • malcolmg said:

    Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢

    It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaric
    What other 2 died, it was only 2 late this morning.
    4 in total during the festival

    Sorry if I was not clear Malc
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    No. Just no.
    He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidence
    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.
    One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.

    Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.
    Was that not due to the business due to be going under though and seeing rich pickings at Westminster
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
    Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
    I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birds
    As all of the moderate conservatives have been purged, HY probably is moderate. I just don't get what motivates people to defend the very things they are against just because their side is doing it...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
    You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.

    Really the problem is that most of his approval rating was based on massive state spending at stable prices. When you raise the finance to pay for the spending and prices start to inflate, people start to hate you, and a marital-fiscal embarrassment turns into a terminal blow.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421

    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
    Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.
    It was an ott response. I apologise.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yes it does, and I think the opposition parties are storing that one up for use shortly. As in: 'What's the advantage of non-dom status for Mrs S? Answer: To avoid the inheritance tax that the rest of us in the UK have to pay'.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
    I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birds
    At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    TimT said:

    Wow. I had not realized how horrible Everton's line up of opponents until the end of the season. Leicester twice, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Hard to see how they get the points to stay up.

    They need to play united every week !!!!
    Arsenal are rock solid at the moment 😂
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    ..

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.
    ....early senility.....

    :neutral:
    Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.
    Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.
    It was an ott response. I apologise.
    No worries!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.

    In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.

    Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).

    There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.

    Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.
    My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.

    Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
    Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.
    I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayr
    LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.

    Wow, that was a remarkably sensitive response given I was just doing the same thing you did.

    Calm down, dear, it was just a joke.
    Pity you do not recognise reciprocity
    I will recognise it if you do :wink:
    I will adjust my tin ear, or should I say my Rishi ear
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,217
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.

    Something pretty close was on offer- May's deal looked a lot like a single market in goods without freedom of movement. The price of that was permanent alignment on EU market standards. And the ERG weren't having that.

    Barnier's Staircase was all about pick and choose. But also the idea that the choices had consequences. What wasn't negotiable was the idea that seamless access required alignment. And that's a pretty fundamental point to ask the EU to concede on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
    You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.
    That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.
    Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    EPG said:

    I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.

    Really the problem is that most of his approval rating was based on massive state spending at stable prices. When you raise the finance to pay for the spending and prices start to inflate, people start to hate you, and a marital-fiscal embarrassment turns into a terminal blow.
    That's true but he could have managed the hard decision phase and remained a contender. What I'm referring to is the tax arrangements and also his belated response. Astonishing he didn't see it coming and made defensive adjustments years ago.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.

    All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.

    Some wise old politician (this was decades ago) pointed out that Head Boys often don't make it to the top in politics. If you are used to being promoted by others on the basis of your merits, there is something you don't develop in your temprament- some combination of emollience and sharp elbows- that is really useful for climbing greasy poles. And Head Boy is a funny role- in charge of something nebulous, but actually not in charge of anything since all the authority continues to rest with the adults.

    Rishi looks like another victim of that curse.
    Which would be true if he had actually been “head boy” but he wasn’t.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    Slightly unfortunate wording ...
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    ping said:

    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.

    Johnson will be delighted as he manifests in Ukraine seeking a slice of vicarious war kudos. He survives all of his scandals and now sees the main alternative to his leadership brought low by his own. I think this man has made a pact with Lucifer. The luck is too extreme to be explained any other way.
  • FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France

    When does the poll close
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    Slightly unfortunate wording ...
    It’s just a figure of speech, not a dog whistle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?

    How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.
    One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.

    Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.
    Was that not due to the business due to be going under though and seeing rich pickings at Westminster
    It actually doesn't really matter what the reasons were, in this or other cases: it just shows the bad faith. And the lack of credibility of a signigicant percentage of such promises. Though not as bad as Vote No to Stay in the EU.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,576

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
    I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birds
    At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?
    BigG strikes me as an exceptionally moderate and mild-mannered Conservative. In the same manner as (say) Southam for Labour. Both have their own angles and opinions on events, but neither have ever struck me as extreme.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    Slightly unfortunate wording ...
    It’s just a figure of speech, not a dog whistle.
    Oh, quite - I certainly didn't think you were getting oiut the whistle.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    kinabalu said:

    ping said:

    Most recommended comment in the ft;

    “Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.

    Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.

    Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor

    And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.

    Johnson will be delighted as he manifests in Ukraine seeking a slice of vicarious war kudos. He survives all of his scandals and now sees the main alternative to his leadership brought low by his own. I think this man has made a pact with Lucifer. The luck is too extreme to be explained any other way.
    He's like Punch. Even when the devil comes for him, he'll probably manage to bash him on the bonce and say 'that's the way to do it!'.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France

    When does the poll close
    7pm our time.
  • FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France

    When does the poll close
    7pm our time.
    Thanks Nick
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
    You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.
    That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.
    Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?
    Well you can look into the concept of the nuclear umbrella for starters. This concept covers a range of formal and informal agreements to provide security against catastrophic attack by a mutual enemy.

    Whilst you're at it, you might want to look up what a split infinitive is. Not that I mind doing it, it's perfectly fine to not avoid doing it, but I didn't in the above post.
    There would seem to be little point in looking up a concept that isn't in any way applicable to what I wrote, which remains completely true. We have no agreements with any other countries to use our nuclear deterrent on their behalf, indeed such a notion would undermine the entire point of us having it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    "current Tory voters" isn't a big enough bloc to win a general election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Betfair Exchange, first round winner:

    Macron 1.18 / 1.25
    Le Pen 4.2 / 6.2

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730

    Smarkets, first round winner:

    Macron 1.17 / 1.26
    Le Pen 5.5 / 7,2

    https://smarkets.com/event/42417380/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022-first-round-winner

    I get a feeling that 5.5 might be value.

    If Le Pen comes first tonight, take the opportunity to pile on Macron to win the presidency as his price goes out.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    From the DM

    "Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.

    One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.

    'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"

    With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.

    Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.
  • I'm with HYUFD. In fact, I think that the Tories should base their next election campaign on how much pride modern Tories take in being the heirs to Franco and Pinochet. Please.

    Surely how much money the Tories can take from their voters pockets and put in the pockets of themselves and their patrons. With the important caveat that if you feel poor after they have taken your money then its your fault for being too woke.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)
    Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generation
    You live in a world of make believe

    I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
    You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.

    That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
    Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.
    The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.

    I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
    If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?


    I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.

    BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
    I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birds
    At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?
    BigG strikes me as an exceptionally moderate and mild-mannered Conservative. In the same manner as (say) Southam for Labour. Both have their own angles and opinions on events, but neither have ever struck me as extreme.
    He didn't get to be big G without coertion and battle plans.

    South Wales has long felt threatened, and allegedly guests at Big G castle have been served leek soup with a clear Northern buttery taste.

    As I understand it he's prepared to snub a nose, maybe two, to seize the lands under the G mark.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    From the DM

    "Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.

    One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.

    'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"

    With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.

    Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.
    I am not sure what a soft landing looks like in this case. He can't be given responsibility over anything that has a bearing on taxation, immigration, business, or nationality issues, so that rules out most cabinet posts except possibly health. He can't be given leadership over a task force or a public body for the same reason.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    So the chancellor's wife still doesn't consider the UK her permanent home. If it was the chancellor himself he'd be toast. As it's his wife instead I'd probably let him off. But many won't.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    TimT said:

    Wow. I had not realized how horrible Everton's line up of opponents until the end of the season. Leicester twice, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Hard to see how they get the points to stay up.

    Liverpool’s next three opponents:

    Man City
    Man United
    Everton

    I’ve not really followed much of the football this season, but I think tonight’s result probably decides the league. Just paid up the PPV to watch the match.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Hunt is far more likely to be PM than Tugendhat.

    It's almost as if those compiling the odds have never spoken to a Tory MP....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.

    Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
    Hunt is far more likely to be PM than Tugendhat.

    It's almost as if those compiling the odds have never spoken to a Tory MP....
    Remain/Leave is very much yesterday's argument.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Quordle in six...

    Daily Quordle 76
    6️⃣2️⃣
    3️⃣5️⃣
    quordle.com
    ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟩⬜🟩⬜⬜
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    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).

    The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.
    Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.

    Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.

    Silly man.
    From the DM

    "Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.

    One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.

    'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"

    With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.

    Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.
    I am not sure what a soft landing looks like in this case. He can't be given responsibility over anything that has a bearing on taxation, immigration, business, or nationality issues, so that rules out most cabinet posts except possibly health. He can't be given leadership over a task force or a public body for the same reason.
    I think he will leave politics. A soft landing is resign to pursue other interests in a month or so

    Here's a thought: what if no Ukraine and a Sunak driven vonc? Would Johnson have detonated this bomb to collapse the vonc and buy a year's safety?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.

    Hope to God he is wrong.
    Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:

    1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
    2. It goes nuclear.
    Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
    I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.

    Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
    And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.
    Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.

    China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
    You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.

    Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
    Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on Russia
    Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".
    You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.
    That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.
    Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?
    Well you can look into the concept of the nuclear umbrella for starters. This concept covers a range of formal and informal agreements to provide security against catastrophic attack by a mutual enemy.

    Whilst you're at it, you might want to look up what a split infinitive is. Not that I mind doing it, it's perfectly fine to not avoid doing it, but I didn't in the above post.
    There would seem to be little point in looking up a concept that isn't in any way applicable to what I wrote, which remains completely true. We have no agreements with any other countries to use our nuclear deterrent on their behalf, indeed such a notion would undermine the entire point of us having it.
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Number of Oblasts in Ukraine =24
    Number until complete Russian control after 46 days of war = 0

    Remember 2 of the Oblasts had been partially invaded in 2014. Crimea is an autonomous republic.
This discussion has been closed.