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Sunday’s French election is getting very tight – politicalbetting.com

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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,695
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    From reading around today it sounds like Russia has sustained severe military losses and their ability for offensive operations is now greatly reduced. Also Ukraine has performed remarkably when defending but are they capable of moving into an offensive mode? Things could well end up in a stalemate with Russia just clinging onto what it has already taken. I had assumed that Russia would not be able to hold onto their gains due to insurgencies. From current evidence Russia's way of dealing with that is to exterminate the entire civilian population.

    The ridiculous calling of Ukraine a bunch of Nazis would be ironically funny if the impact was not so tragic. The Russians are behaving like the textbook definition of Nazis. The echoes of Nazi Germany are deafening.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,098
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    What is wrong with that? Winchester is his old school, a top seat of learning and provides scholarships and bursaries the donation will help fund.

    It is his money

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html
    It depends on who can benefit from such scholarships.
  • Options
    AlistairM said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    It is a fund for scholarships. Is that such a bad thing?
    It is the image giving to a school that has some of the largest private fees in the country

    If he had given it to his local comprehensive then that would show he is in touch with the public
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,517

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Incredible footage.

    The economic cost of this must be off the scale.
    More supply chain disruption. More shortages. More inflation.

    Still. I guess it makes it harder for China to provide military and economic support to Russia. So there's that.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,892

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    Russia is incredibly good at winding up and infuriating people like me who watch them aghast as they spout the usual complete lies, with a half smirk. But ultimately we all know know they will lose in just about every way. Even if they somehow manage to occupy Ukraine and then march on Moldova and the Baltics, they will end up losing in the ways that matter.

    The trouble is we know they will aim to drag as many people down with them as possible. In that way they remind me of my sister in law's controlling ex-husband who she ended up leaving after a domestic violence episode. The similarities are there both before the incident and afterwards. For years below we could see the warning signs, the erratic and controlling behaviour, though when it happened there was still a feeling of shock. But afterwards he didn't let up - he made false accusations to the police, tried every trick in the book through the courts, vexatious anonymous referrals to social services.

    Each time things got harder for him, but he kept going. He lost any share of child custody, then was eventually denied contact, then had a restraining order slapped on him, and finally lost the vast majority of the joint assets after trying to hide sources of income from the court. He lost completely and comprehensively. And again a few years later after abusing his next unfortunate wife. Yet he still managed to drag his ex through about 6 or 7 years of hell on earth on the way down, which she is only just recovering from.

    Putin is an abusive ex who's essentially said to Ukraine, if I can't have you then I'm going to make sure nobody else will want you.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,695
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
    Number of Tory seats affected by fracking? 20% at most.

    Number of Tory seats affected by higher energy bills? 100%.

    Do the maths
    Lol
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,205
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    What is wrong with that? Winchester is his old school, a top seat of learning and provides scholarships and bursaries the donation will help fund.

    It is his money

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html
    If you cannot see how it looks then you really are out if touch

    Apparently it has shocked many of his own mps
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,036

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    C4's extremely highbrow lineup today we must preserve from privatisation to the lowest common denominator of populism.

    Includes Undercover Boss, Steph's packed lunch, A Place in the Sun, New Life in the Sun, Hollyoaks, the Simpsons and Gogglebox

    https://twitter.com/WalkerMarcus/status/1511328157873418253?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    They also pioneered Inbetweeners and IT Crowd.
    What have C4 ever given us?

    Film4.
    Have you ever seen an old programme called time team. I have watched lots in the last few years and they are all brilliant, like piecing together an holistic puzzle.
    Old programme called Time Team?
    Way to make most of us feel ancient!
    Particularly me as I worked on a few of them.
    Do you still have the stripey jumpers?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,695
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
    Would you like a bet on this? Not fracking but that a Conservative govt would compel energy companies to sell oil below market prices in the UK? I can't even imagine how that would work. Trade negotiation with other countries would be fun with that subsidy for a start.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,036

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.

    On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
    True, although the fall in 'cases' is faster than the fall in testing... not that is should matter: it's as irrational to celebrate falling cases as it is to catastrophise increasing cases. They will ebb and flow, in waves, forever.

    The 'incidental' admissions thing is completely and utterly crackers. I only learned recently (from Nick Triggle's excellent analysis) that now most covid hospitalisations are for something other than covid.

    No matter what problems they might cause in hospital (and I know the problems are manifold) it is simply misleading to call these covid admissions – as they are, by their very definition, NOT admitted for covid!
    Significant drop in cases in Scotland so far this week; and LFTs are still free. Too early for the school holidays to have had an effect, as well.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    TimS said:

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    Russia is incredibly good at winding up and infuriating people like me who watch them aghast as they spout the usual complete lies, with a half smirk. But ultimately we all know know they will lose in just about every way. Even if they somehow manage to occupy Ukraine and then march on Moldova and the Baltics, they will end up losing in the ways that matter.

    The trouble is we know they will aim to drag as many people down with them as possible. In that way they remind me of my sister in law's controlling ex-husband who she ended up leaving after a domestic violence episode. The similarities are there both before the incident and afterwards. For years below we could see the warning signs, the erratic and controlling behaviour, though when it happened there was still a feeling of shock. But afterwards he didn't let up - he made false accusations to the police, tried every trick in the book through the courts, vexatious anonymous referrals to social services.

    Each time things got harder for him, but he kept going. He lost any share of child custody, then was eventually denied contact, then had a restraining order slapped on him, and finally lost the vast majority of the joint assets after trying to hide sources of income from the court. He lost completely and comprehensively. And again a few years later after abusing his next unfortunate wife. Yet he still managed to drag his ex through about 6 or 7 years of hell on earth on the way down, which she is only just recovering from.

    Putin is an abusive ex who's essentially said to Ukraine, if I can't have you then I'm going to make sure nobody else will want you.
    Gonna hafta start referring to him as Jilted Vlad.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Sorry to hear you have Covid.
    If only you'd worn a mask...... :)
    Ha! The bonkers truth is that I think I caught it in a healthcare setting… while wearing a mask!
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
    Would you like a bet on this? Not fracking but that a Conservative govt would compel energy companies to sell oil below market prices in the UK? I can't even imagine how that would work. Trade negotiation with other countries would be fun with that subsidy for a start.
    This is all only sounds rather like the French energy market, for my money - if there was significant subsidy first, obviously, and the energy sources were different ones ; I do NOT support fracking. Macronist France is hardly the USSR, if we're being fair.
This discussion has been closed.