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Sunday’s French election is getting very tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.

    "If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765

    You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
    And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
    Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
    A member is committing genocide and indescribable war crimes and you think they should not be sanctioned within the UN membership
    The UN General Assembly already voted to condemn Russia's invasion by a majority vote. However security actions by the UN in response would by definition be vetoed by Russia as a permanent member of the UNSC
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    nico679 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    In 2017 first round vote Mélenchon took 37% of the Muslim vote followed by Macron on 24%.

    It was a case of anybody but Le Pen.

    In 2022 the second round was a foregone conclusion , this time not so .

    This is likely to see the abstention rate fall as we head towards Election Day especially in the Muslim community who make up a crucial 8% of the population .

    Pécresses voters currently break 65 to 35 towards Macron . What’s left of her vote is more centre right , the far right parties have already hovered up the more far right voters who jumped ship .

    As in the UK older voters are more likely to turnout and Macron is winning this by a huge majority in the second round .

    Le Pen can win but the current polling is over inflating her popularity in the second round . And she needs a perfect storm of events to deliver that .

    People look at the polling and think Melenchon is out of it because it shows Macron beats him more easily in second round. I would caution against that. If he makes top two he will be looked at again and differently by a lot of voters, not least because he is a better campaigner and debater than Le pen and will slice and dice Macron in debates. And in your post, he retains the ethnic vote, thats harder to transfer to Le pen to keep out the clutches of Macron. I still think this is fluid enough, long enough to go, and so many previous first rounds thrown up surprises for Melenchon to sneak into last two. And once there present Macron a more dangerous opponent, one who brings the left and ethnic votes, in theory could attract the anti establishment anti EU votes of Zemmour and Le pen, and the protestors against Macrons pension and tax policies.
    I'm always surprised that Le Pen doesn't get more of the Melenchon vote, because economically, he is very similar to her.

    By contrast, Macron and Pecresse have almost identical economic policies, and they both supported pension and labour market reform.

    So I find the idea that the Pecresse block is going sharply Le Pen in the second round slightly odd; I could see Melenchon's vote moving much more easily.
    You can think of it a bit like the Red Wall seats and Labour. Economic antipathy towards the Tories fell and the more conservative social attitudes combined to help them in 2019.

    You are right economically Le Pen is closer to Mélenchon but socially worlds apart and this will act as a block on vote transfers towards her in the second round .
    Exactly. The idea that economic policy is all-important is itself a political opinion and is certainly not shared by all.
    Indeed, economically seats like Oxford West and Abingdon and Putney should be Conservative and Leigh and Bolsover should be Labour. They were in 2015.

    However now culture trumps economics post Brexit, Oxford West and Abingdon is LD and Putney Labour. While Leigh and Bolsover have gone Conservative
    There is a lot of demographic change in Bolsover as well with new houses being built as well as the Brexit realignment although Labour still has a large WWC vote in Bolsover itself and Shirebrook. I also think the Tories overperformed in OxWAb in 2010 and 2015 because Cameron's seat was next door although probably safe LD now. I wouldn't write off the Tories chances of winning back Putney when the next Labour gvt loses power as they are still dominant at a local level and the Tories could still cling onto Wandsworth in May. Leigh is interesting although the Tories would need to hold their majority nationally to hold it probably.

    I actually think the key determinant is age really and the level of pensioner voting for the Conservatives is now somewhat unique to Britain.
    In most countries age has replaced class as the main determinant of voting intention for Conservatives. Pecresse still polls best amongst pensioners as did the CDU last year. Trump also still won pensioners in 2020 though he only tied Biden with the richest voters
    Yes although in some European countries there is also still a lot of older working class support for social democratic parties. In Germany, the SPD is still reasonably strong with working class older voters at the same time the CDU/CSU core vote is skewed towards middle class older voters (particularly Catholics).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.

    "If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765

    You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
    And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
    Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
    Because of nuclear weapons and the fear of MAD.

    Not because of the League of United Nations.
    And all the main nuclear weapons powers are permanent members of the UNSC.

    So at times of high tension like the Cuban Missile Crisis or now discussions can take place within the UNSC rather than war
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Incredible footage.

    The economic cost of this must be off the scale.

    What's odd is that I'd have thought the powers that be in China would be content for it just to spread through the country. Shit for the people, but no one is going to complain too much.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you

    Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'

    Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating

    BBC News - Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng orders scientific review of fracking impact
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60999026
    To give the greenlight for a rethink on expanding fracking which the government desperately needs to do to reduce energy prices yes
    We have had this discussion already. Fracking in the UK maybe good for the UK economy but it will do next to nothing for the price of energy as that is set by global prices. The fracking companies will sell at the global price. Obviously if more oil is produced all over the world that does have an impact, but that is not what you have said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
    I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,641
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you

    Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'

    Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating

    BBC News - Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng orders scientific review of fracking impact
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60999026
    To give the greenlight for a rethink on expanding fracking which the government desperately needs to do to reduce energy prices yes
    This is not the same as you said

    Why not just say 'I was in error'

    I have done it many times on here, indeed I have apologised to various posters on here when I was wrong

    You should try it - you would feel good about yourself if you did
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sean_F said:

    I believe that Macron will win easily, albeit by a smaller margin than last time. I think those looking at the polls today are overlooking four key points:

    1. In an opinion poll about a hypothetical (albeit expected) second round, those who strongly prefer one of the candidates whom the question assumes will be eliminated are loathe to admit that they will, after all, vote for the lesser of two evils. This is particularly important for the soft-left currently saying they'll vote Mélenchon.

    2. Whilst it's true that Le Pen has benefitted from a smart campaign and especially by Zemmour making her look comparatively less toxic, she is still toxic to a lot of voters.

    3. The grandees of all the various factions and other parties (excluding Zemmour's lot) are likely to come out strongly and urge their supporters to hold their noses and vote for Macron, irritating though he is.

    4. The final week won't take place in a vacuum. Expect Le Pen's record of being a bit too chummy with Putin to feature strongly - at exactly the same time that the full horrors of Putin are being splashed across French TV screens.

    I think you could be overestimating Macron's ability to dominate the agenda in his favour between the two rounds.

    Perhaps the biggest similarity with Brexit is that it's a battle of differential turnout, and he needs to motivate people to go out and reelect him.
    Having checked the odds, I don't find 4/1on Le Pen attractive. I'd put her chances at more like 1 in 10.
    Yes, I'm about there too. Not clear to me where the PB Le Pen Rampers are coming from – she looks like a no-value loser from where I'm standing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    No he has not - he has invited expert geological advice to consider whether fracking is a viable and safe operation
    To explore all domestic energy resources to try and expand supply and reduce energy prices
    Good you have corrected your inaccurate post- 'explore' is different to your assertion
    It will still end in more fracking, guaranteed. The need to lower energy prices makes that inevitable now
    Nothing is guaranteed on fracking, though you are again playing with words to try to justify your inaccurate statement

    And I repeat Kwarteng's statement for you

    However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
    You can guarantee the 'evidence' will give that, this is just cover for a decision Boris and the Government has effectively already made
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited April 2022
    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you

    Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'

    Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating

    BBC News - Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng orders scientific review of fracking impact
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60999026
    To give the greenlight for a rethink on expanding fracking which the government desperately needs to do to reduce energy prices yes
    We have had this discussion already. Fracking in the UK maybe good for the UK economy but it will do next to nothing for the price of energy as that is set by global prices. The fracking companies will sell at the global price. Obviously if more oil is produced all over the world that does have an impact, but that is not what you have said.
    If we produce more of our own energy by fracking then by definition that increases domestic supply which the government can mandate for domestic consumers to meet domestic demand. That in turn reduces domestic energy prices.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
    Well that went straight over your head.

    The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,078

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Incredible footage.

    The economic cost of this must be off the scale.

    What's odd is that I'd have thought the powers that be in China would be content for it just to spread through the country. Shit for the people, but no one is going to complain too much.
    Also kills a lot of really old, burdensome people. Given China's ageing population, that could be seen as a plus - if you're an inhuman autocrat

    However the optics would be terrible; cf Hong Kong. Hundreds of thousands could die in agony, and not even China can repress all dissenting social media forever

    Xi wants to get his third term at the end of this year. He will want to be seen as the victor over Covid. So the Zero Covid madness will continue

    What is truly bizarre is this. Why has China not bought 4 billion doses of Pfizer or Moderna, then insisted that everyone be jabbed thrice? They could relabel the vax as China Pfizer and pretend it is home made if that matters. And surely compulsion won't worry them, they are willing to weld people into apartments, are they not willing to make vaccines mandatory?

    Omicron Plus is no threat if you have universal vaccination with a good vax, across the ages. NZ proves this
  • Listening to Russia's representative to the UN is a stomach churning experience

    Time to isolate Russia from the world community
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
    Well that went straight over your head.

    The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
    1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,684

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.

    On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
    Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.

    Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.

    "If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765

    You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
    And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
    Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
    A member is committing genocide and indescribable war crimes and you think they should not be sanctioned within the UN membership
    @HYUFD is just stating the facts of the matter. The UNSC P5 is not going to change, not as long as Russia is a major nuclear power. That's all there is to it

    For a start, any attempt to change it would be vetoed - by Russia and China. Creating total impasse
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    I would suspect Covid cases dropping like a stone may also be related to the fact that LFTs are no longer free. Even my very Covid-nervous mother (with an underlying health condition) is coming to terms with the fact that regular testing of people before they see her will be coming to an end.

    However, and I know this has been said before, I can't imagine there are many people who have not yet had some form of Covid in this country. We went through a lot of pain over the last two years but we are now in a much better position than China who had zero Covid for a long time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Cookie said:

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
    Are you actually supposed to do that still?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,727

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
    We have a trial fracking site in the Flatlands (Misson, Nottinghamshire).

    I don't know if they ever did much in the way of actual fracking as I never heard or felt anything but I certainly did feel the Market Rasen earthquake...which was probably 10,000 times stronger than anything they could generate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Market_Rasen_earthquake

    We drink groundwater here so that's perhaps more of a concern but given what else goes on on the aquifer fracking is the least of our problems (nitrate pollution is pretty high, for example)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
    Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
    Yes it would, certainly in years to come and there are years to come until the next general election
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,684

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.

    Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
    Travel into and out of NZ aside, I reckon being there over the last couple of years would have been one of the best places to 'enjoy' the pandemic.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Listening to Russia's representative to the UN is a stomach churning experience

    Time to isolate Russia from the world community

    Omg it gets worse . The moron is now saying they came to cut out the Nazi tumour.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
    Well that went straight over your head.

    The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
    1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
    Even if fracking was allowed it will not benefit the economy this side of GE24
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    edited April 2022
    I still don't think the French election is going to be especially close (though clearly closer than last time). The occasional poll shows the gap down to 3-4 points, but the vast majority of polls (including the three that appeared today) show it at 6-8 points. The figures look remarkably stable with the occasional outlier.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election?msclkid=3a2f1e7db4b711ec889c34f7ef66b060
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    @HYUFD

    The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting.

    Russia has been effectively kicked out of the Eurodollar system (read Adam Tooze) - which may well herald a new, parallel economic exchange system. This was pretty much unthinkable a couple of months ago.

    It’s not, now, unthinkable that the UN/UNSC falls apart over this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.

    On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
    True, although the fall in 'cases' is faster than the fall in testing... not that is should matter: it's as irrational to celebrate falling cases as it is to catastrophise increasing cases. They will ebb and flow, in waves, forever.

    The 'incidental' admissions thing is completely and utterly crackers. I only learned recently (from Nick Triggle's excellent analysis) that now most covid hospitalisations are for something other than covid.

    No matter what problems they might cause in hospital (and I know the problems are manifold) it is simply misleading to call these covid admissions – as they are, by their very definition, NOT admitted for covid!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
    Well that went straight over your head.

    The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
    1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
    Can you afford to lose all your Lancashire seats? And as many have said on here, fracking will not cure the energy price issue, it just pisses off people you don't want to piss off.

    The kneejerk reaction by your Government to the energy crisis in terms of mini nukes and fracking has been quite shocking.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    nico679 said:

    Listening to Russia's representative to the UN is a stomach churning experience

    Time to isolate Russia from the world community

    Omg it gets worse . The moron is now saying they came to cut out the Nazi tumour.
    It's as well they are going back to Russia then. That's where the tumour is....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    It's not about house prices, it's about caring for the countryside. This is a very strong motivator amongst Conservative voters in rural areas, and quite rightly so.
  • HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Indeed there's always been plenty of NIMBYs in the Conservative Party. 👎

    Ironic, because HYUFD is probably one of the biggest and if we were talking about his own backyard he'd be vehemently opposed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    AlistairM said:

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    I would suspect Covid cases dropping like a stone may also be related to the fact that LFTs are no longer free. Even my very Covid-nervous mother (with an underlying health condition) is coming to terms with the fact that regular testing of people before they see her will be coming to an end.

    However, and I know this has been said before, I can't imagine there are many people who have not yet had some form of Covid in this country. We went through a lot of pain over the last two years but we are now in a much better position than China who had zero Covid for a long time.
    All fair but note that the fall in positive tests is faster than the fall in testing (not that it matters – see my reply to Turbo above)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2022
    ping said:

    @HYUFD

    The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting.

    Russia has been effectively kicked out of the Eurodollar system (read Adam Tooze) - which may well herald a new, parallel economic exchange system. This was pretty much unthinkable a couple of months ago.

    It’s not, now, unthinkable that the UN/UNSC falls apart over this.

    It won't. Not while Russia has nuclear weapons.

    The G7 and G20 are the main forums for economic powers anyway not the UNSC
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    You are not an inclusive politician are you?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
    Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
    Yes it would, certainly in years to come and there are years to come until the next general election
    Years to come to the next GE - you mean 2 of course
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.

    Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
    Travel into and out of NZ aside, I reckon being there over the last couple of years would have been one of the best places to 'enjoy' the pandemic.
    They have had pretty severe and prolonged lockdowns though at times, especially in Auckland. Certainly in the early days of the pandemic you are right though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975

    rcs1000 said:

    France's election is fascinating. I could see a number of different options - from a thumping Macron win over Melanchon, through both victory and defeat against Le Pen.

    What's interesting is that Macron is being blamed for the cost of living increases - which are principally petrol/diesel. France's electricity prices are among Europe's lowest and are still essentially set by the government, in that they own the majority of generator EDF. Average electricity bills will rise just EUR38 this year, which is a level that we in the UK (or those in other European countries) can only dream of*.

    But people still really still care about petrol prices, and the war in Ukraine (and France's sanctions on Russia) are seen as being responsible for this. And Le Pen has played this skillfully: both distancing herself from Putin and hinting that she would bring petrol prices down by (something, something) Russia/Ukraine.

    So... what happens next?

    Well, I like to think that the French will not vote solely based on lower petrol prices. But what do I know?

    I think the most likely scenario is that Macron is around five points clear of Le Pen in the first round, and then limps to a 5 or 6 point win in the second. But that isn't something I'd like to bet my house on (unless the odds were *really* attractive). And things are very fluid right now: a defeat for Russia, and an inevitable collapse in energy prices, would probably seal the deal for Macron. But if the conflict is grinding on, and Le Pen appears to offer relief to French wallets, then it will likely be very close.

    * We have petrol, heating and electricity prices rises to hit our wallets.

    Following up my previous post below with interesting graph from last time, I am going to go with a bit more depth into the reasons why Macron has lost this.

    I think what proves me right, that it’s a changed Landscape and Macrons policies don’t fit it, is staring us in the face in that old graph I just pasted and how we know landscape has changed during his presidency to convert abstentions and macron votes last time now to stop Macron votes.

    Fillion 20, Hamon 6.4 that’s 26 minus 9 for pecrasse = 17 That’s 17 from moderates to the anti establishment block from last time. Why? how? the main thing that us creating this bloc against Macron is Macron himself. He has been unable to straddle a foot in the social reform/nationalism/EU sceptic positions, with a foot in the pro business and establishment bloc, his positioning, posturing and policies during this term is his biggest problem. Macron, through a stubbornness or arrogance in his personality type, set out on a mission to be resolute and change things his way in 2014, like a French thatcher, the result is the bloc thot defeats him.

    But it didn’t have to happen, that’s the take out. Text books will be written how he could have won, but didn’t have the imagination to be a good political strategist and serial election winner.

    I’ll give you an example by contrasting with a serial election winner, agile enough to keep the opposition out of power. Bismark kept winning. He done this by adopting the social economics of the Austrian School. Where you would think the socialists would need to win to give Germany the beginnings of welfare state, Bismark stole that, thus bestridding everything like a colossus a foot in both camps.

    Macron has done the opposite. The shared policies that unite the country from left to right against him stem from Macron’s stubbornness to reach out to other policy platforms, whilst integrating his own.

    What policy platforms? These

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_French_labor_protests

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_protests

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–2020_French_pension_reform_strike

    he was too pure on his mission, too stubborn to compromise

    On topic, and I hope it helps with your betting. 💇‍♀️
    It only helps with the betting for those who have a soft spot for bookmakers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
    Well that went straight over your head.

    The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
    1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
    Can you afford to lose all your Lancashire seats? And as many have said on here, fracking will not cure the energy price issue, it just pisses off people you don't want to piss off.

    The kneejerk reaction by your Government to the energy crisis in terms of mini nukes and fracking has been quite shocking.
    We won't lose all our Lancashire seats, most will not be near fracking sites. However even if we did we would still have a small majority.

    However we cannot afford to lose all our redwall seats which we would do unless we cut energy prices and get fracking and extracting shale as we then have no majority at all.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,476

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Sorry to hear you have Covid.
    If only you'd worn a mask...... :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
    I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
    Like you say you are not a geologist and the 'earthquakes' caused by fracking are so minor as to be a complete red herring. It is particularly amusing in areas like the Vale of Glamorgan and Lancashire where mining caused far greater earth movements and real - rather than imagined - damage throughout its life. There are thousands of earthquakes each year in the UK and, try as they might, geologists still haven't been able to detect a meaningful increase in perceptible earthquakes associated with fracking in the UK.

    Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
    Thank you. Certainly the water pollution is a big concern.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kwasi Kwarteng says the Ukraine war means the UK government will expand fracking

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1511316580298371079?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
    Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
    No I am correct.

    This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
    Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
    Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
    I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
    Like you say you are not a geologist and the 'earthquakes' caused by fracking are so minor as to be a complete red herring. It is particularly amusing in areas like the Vale of Glamorgan and Lancashire where mining caused far greater earth movements and real - rather than imagined - damage throughout its life. There are thousands of earthquakes each year in the UK and, try as they might, geologists still haven't been able to detect a meaningful increase in perceptible earthquakes associated with fracking in the UK.

    Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
    There is one thing I would like to add: AIUI (*) not just water is put down the well, but other ingredients designed to enlarge the pore spaces to release the gas. *Everything* put down a well should be public domain, and not trade secret.

    (*) Correct me if necessary.
  • Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    Great news that Tiger is in the Masters
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,476

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    Looks like the Ukrainians might be +1 helicopter.

    https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1511359412971216902

    (Even if they don't have the equipment to operate it, it's one less for the Russians, and I bet the Yanks will pay them generously for an intact Ka-52.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Some interesting stats on types of cars sold recently.


    Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP @grantshapps
    2m
    March was a record-breaking month for the sale of new EVs! 1 in 5 new cars registered had a plug and & more fully electric cars were sold than in the whole of 2019⚡ The #EV revolution is driving the UK towards our net zero goals with cleaner air and greener jobs!🌍

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1511370540178628617

    Over half of all cars sold in March had some form of electric engine capability. Diesels now just 5% of sales and sales of petrols and diesels are plummeting. The current situation for energy I am sure is accelerating (pun intended) this. In 5 years' time the cars on the road will be very different from now.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    On tracking its laughable it is stopped on the slight chance it causes a slight earthquake yet we build nuclear power plants that can destroy entire regions and has toxic waste for centuries
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,132
    'aint gonna be any kind of peace deal any time soon...


    Deborah Haynes
    @haynesdeborah
    ·
    1h
    Asked by
    @SkyNews
    how Ukraine could negotiate with Russia's Vladimir Putin given the atrocities allegedly committed by his forces, the Ukrainian interior minister said, speaking in English: “Go to hell.”

    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,078

    Cookie said:

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
    Are you actually supposed to do that still?
    Well my question would be how the stats appear on the government website unless people do?

    The dashboard has been, I would say, open government at its absolute best. A real achievement, and the civil servants responsible should be congratulated again and again. It's given amateurs exactly the same data that government ministers have been getting, and allowed proper questioning of the government to be reasonably carried out. A pity journalists never learned to interrogate it properly, but that's not the fault of the dashboard's creators: the site was almost unbelievably user-friendly.
    But it could only work with the data it had. Once it was up and running, the data it had went from pretty good to really very good indeed as the breadth of testing increased. But surely the raw data for cases is now so partial as to be almost useless?
    I suppose the data for deaths is still in the upper half of reliable. And the data for hospitalisations is useful, though suffers from the hospitalised for/hospitalised with dichotomy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
    Number of Tory seats affected by fracking? 20% at most.

    Number of Tory seats affected by higher energy bills? 100%.

    Do the maths
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,905

    On tracking its laughable it is stopped on the slight chance it causes a slight earthquake yet we build nuclear power plants that can destroy entire regions and has toxic waste for centuries

    I don't like them either.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    It is a fund for scholarships. Is that such a bad thing?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    It's not about house prices, it's about caring for the countryside. This is a very strong motivator amongst Conservative voters in rural areas, and quite rightly so.
    I wrote ‘include’ intentionally; there are the people you describe as well. Some, of course, are both!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2022

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    What is wrong with that? Winchester is his old school, a top seat of learning and provides scholarships and bursaries the donation will help fund.

    It is his money

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
    Are you actually supposed to do that still?
    Well my question would be how the stats appear on the government website unless people do?

    The dashboard has been, I would say, open government at its absolute best. A real achievement, and the civil servants responsible should be congratulated again and again. It's given amateurs exactly the same data that government ministers have been getting, and allowed proper questioning of the government to be reasonably carried out. A pity journalists never learned to interrogate it properly, but that's not the fault of the dashboard's creators: the site was almost unbelievably user-friendly.
    But it could only work with the data it had. Once it was up and running, the data it had went from pretty good to really very good indeed as the breadth of testing increased. But surely the raw data for cases is now so partial as to be almost useless?
    I suppose the data for deaths is still in the upper half of reliable. And the data for hospitalisations is useful, though suffers from the hospitalised for/hospitalised with dichotomy.
    Serves no purpose other than putting fear into people. Get rid. More relevant to have the nuclear clock on the dashboard if you want to scare people
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    AlistairM said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    It is a fund for scholarships. Is that such a bad thing?
    I'd rather hear that Rishi spent 100k of his own money on scholarships than Boris spent 60k of our money on wallpaper.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222
    NEW THREAD
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    From reading around today it sounds like Russia has sustained severe military losses and their ability for offensive operations is now greatly reduced. Also Ukraine has performed remarkably when defending but are they capable of moving into an offensive mode? Things could well end up in a stalemate with Russia just clinging onto what it has already taken. I had assumed that Russia would not be able to hold onto their gains due to insurgencies. From current evidence Russia's way of dealing with that is to exterminate the entire civilian population.

    The ridiculous calling of Ukraine a bunch of Nazis would be ironically funny if the impact was not so tragic. The Russians are behaving like the textbook definition of Nazis. The echoes of Nazi Germany are deafening.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    What is wrong with that? Winchester is his old school, a top seat of learning and provides scholarships and bursaries the donation will help fund.

    It is his money

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html
    It depends on who can benefit from such scholarships.
  • AlistairM said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    It is a fund for scholarships. Is that such a bad thing?
    It is the image giving to a school that has some of the largest private fees in the country

    If he had given it to his local comprehensive then that would show he is in touch with the public
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909

    Leon said:

    All of Shanghai's 26 million people now on coronavirus lockdown, no end date given - Reuters

    Remarkable drone footage of Shanghai - entirely deserted, two and a half years after the bug first "emerged" in China

    https://twitter.com/BeCuriousarabi/status/1511003334051872768?s=20&t=N57liT1JtixmEw3KqdO9ow


    Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back

    Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
    Incredible footage.

    The economic cost of this must be off the scale.
    More supply chain disruption. More shortages. More inflation.

    Still. I guess it makes it harder for China to provide military and economic support to Russia. So there's that.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    Russia is incredibly good at winding up and infuriating people like me who watch them aghast as they spout the usual complete lies, with a half smirk. But ultimately we all know know they will lose in just about every way. Even if they somehow manage to occupy Ukraine and then march on Moldova and the Baltics, they will end up losing in the ways that matter.

    The trouble is we know they will aim to drag as many people down with them as possible. In that way they remind me of my sister in law's controlling ex-husband who she ended up leaving after a domestic violence episode. The similarities are there both before the incident and afterwards. For years below we could see the warning signs, the erratic and controlling behaviour, though when it happened there was still a feeling of shock. But afterwards he didn't let up - he made false accusations to the police, tried every trick in the book through the courts, vexatious anonymous referrals to social services.

    Each time things got harder for him, but he kept going. He lost any share of child custody, then was eventually denied contact, then had a restraining order slapped on him, and finally lost the vast majority of the joint assets after trying to hide sources of income from the court. He lost completely and comprehensively. And again a few years later after abusing his next unfortunate wife. Yet he still managed to drag his ex through about 6 or 7 years of hell on earth on the way down, which she is only just recovering from.

    Putin is an abusive ex who's essentially said to Ukraine, if I can't have you then I'm going to make sure nobody else will want you.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
    Number of Tory seats affected by fracking? 20% at most.

    Number of Tory seats affected by higher energy bills? 100%.

    Do the maths
    Lol
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
  • HYUFD said:

    Rishi's star falls further as he donates £100, 000 to Winchester School

    He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on

    So out of touch

    What is wrong with that? Winchester is his old school, a top seat of learning and provides scholarships and bursaries the donation will help fund.

    It is his money

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html
    If you cannot see how it looks then you really are out if touch

    Apparently it has shocked many of his own mps
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,061

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    C4's extremely highbrow lineup today we must preserve from privatisation to the lowest common denominator of populism.

    Includes Undercover Boss, Steph's packed lunch, A Place in the Sun, New Life in the Sun, Hollyoaks, the Simpsons and Gogglebox

    https://twitter.com/WalkerMarcus/status/1511328157873418253?s=20&t=s6feJWI45tuI18Ty1aVFnQ

    They also pioneered Inbetweeners and IT Crowd.
    What have C4 ever given us?

    Film4.
    Have you ever seen an old programme called time team. I have watched lots in the last few years and they are all brilliant, like piecing together an holistic puzzle.
    Old programme called Time Team?
    Way to make most of us feel ancient!
    Particularly me as I worked on a few of them.
    Do you still have the stripey jumpers?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
    Would you like a bet on this? Not fracking but that a Conservative govt would compel energy companies to sell oil below market prices in the UK? I can't even imagine how that would work. Trade negotiation with other countries would be fun with that subsidy for a start.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,061

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.

    On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
    True, although the fall in 'cases' is faster than the fall in testing... not that is should matter: it's as irrational to celebrate falling cases as it is to catastrophise increasing cases. They will ebb and flow, in waves, forever.

    The 'incidental' admissions thing is completely and utterly crackers. I only learned recently (from Nick Triggle's excellent analysis) that now most covid hospitalisations are for something other than covid.

    No matter what problems they might cause in hospital (and I know the problems are manifold) it is simply misleading to call these covid admissions – as they are, by their very definition, NOT admitted for covid!
    Significant drop in cases in Scotland so far this week; and LFTs are still free. Too early for the school holidays to have had an effect, as well.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimS said:

    Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?

    Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

    In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.

    Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.

    It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
    Russia is incredibly good at winding up and infuriating people like me who watch them aghast as they spout the usual complete lies, with a half smirk. But ultimately we all know know they will lose in just about every way. Even if they somehow manage to occupy Ukraine and then march on Moldova and the Baltics, they will end up losing in the ways that matter.

    The trouble is we know they will aim to drag as many people down with them as possible. In that way they remind me of my sister in law's controlling ex-husband who she ended up leaving after a domestic violence episode. The similarities are there both before the incident and afterwards. For years below we could see the warning signs, the erratic and controlling behaviour, though when it happened there was still a feeling of shock. But afterwards he didn't let up - he made false accusations to the police, tried every trick in the book through the courts, vexatious anonymous referrals to social services.

    Each time things got harder for him, but he kept going. He lost any share of child custody, then was eventually denied contact, then had a restraining order slapped on him, and finally lost the vast majority of the joint assets after trying to hide sources of income from the court. He lost completely and comprehensively. And again a few years later after abusing his next unfortunate wife. Yet he still managed to drag his ex through about 6 or 7 years of hell on earth on the way down, which she is only just recovering from.

    Putin is an abusive ex who's essentially said to Ukraine, if I can't have you then I'm going to make sure nobody else will want you.
    Gonna hafta start referring to him as Jilted Vlad.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.

    I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.

    Are there any plans to bin it?

    Sorry to hear you have Covid.
    If only you'd worn a mask...... :)
    Ha! The bonkers truth is that I think I caught it in a healthcare setting… while wearing a mask!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.

    The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway

    Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
    Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
    Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.

    The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
    Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
    The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
    Ah I understand you are going to go all Venezuelan. So commercial companies will not be allowed to sell in the marketplace. State control. I apologize for calling you a fascist. Communist it is then. How does this work. Why would energy companies do it? Why would they sell below market prices. Is the state going to set the price?
    You do not have to be a fascist or xommunist to support some state intervention in the economy. Even Macmillan, Heseltine and Gordon Brown did.

    The state can easily legislate that domestic fracking energy should only be used for domestic supply and then tax energy companies if they don't pads on the lower costs. As Boris would
    Would you like a bet on this? Not fracking but that a Conservative govt would compel energy companies to sell oil below market prices in the UK? I can't even imagine how that would work. Trade negotiation with other countries would be fun with that subsidy for a start.
    This is all only sounds rather like the French energy market, for my money - if there was significant subsidy first, obviously, and the energy sources were different ones ; I do NOT support fracking. Macronist France is hardly the USSR, if we're being fair.
This discussion has been closed.