Mark Hertling @MarkHertling · 16h The RU forces - of various types - have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%...I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units.
This isn't a computer game, or stratego...those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
You can, if people vote accordingly. Taiwan was expelled from the UNSC.
The other thing about wind turbines is, of course, there is a whole generation who've grown up with them. They aren't eyesores, unsettling, or beautiful to my kids. They are just part of the landscape.
Hmm. Some of the comments on PB today remind me of reactions - very mixed - to electricity pylons (the lattice steelwork ones) in the 1930s or thereabouts. Novelty must be a factor.
As someone who did experiments on turbine blades (albeit much much smaller ones) I can appreciate their structure as much as anyone.
They just have their place, and it isn't somewhere where there are currently no structures visible.
We have very little wild land in this country. We shouldn't ruin what little is left.
I fear we may be talking at cross purposes as to what wild land actually is...
This is Fisherfield Forest:
How many wind turbines are appropriate? You could definitely site some on the flatter parts of Ruadh Stac Beag (left). This is not a National Park. You could definitely argue that 99.99% of the population will never go there.
You could probably create a hydro scheme while you are at it.
Oh, indeed, cross purposes. I wasn't thinking of wild land but more general countryside, yes. The responses to the pylons I seem to recall as being in the Home Counties and more generally lowland England where the National Grid was first developed, I expect.
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
You can, if people vote accordingly. Taiwan was expelled from the UNSC.
No, it was replaced by China as it was finally recognised the Nationalists, exiled to Taiwan, had lost the civil war for control of mainland China to the Communists.
Before Taiwan in effect was considered to be China on the UNSC
I believe that Macron will win easily, albeit by a smaller margin than last time. I think those looking at the polls today are overlooking four key points:
1. In an opinion poll about a hypothetical (albeit expected) second round, those who strongly prefer one of the candidates whom the question assumes will be eliminated are loathe to admit that they will, after all, vote for the lesser of two evils. This is particularly important for the soft-left currently saying they'll vote Mélenchon.
2. Whilst it's true that Le Pen has benefitted from a smart campaign and especially by Zemmour making her look comparatively less toxic, she is still toxic to a lot of voters.
3. The grandees of all the various factions and other parties (excluding Zemmour's lot) are likely to come out strongly and urge their supporters to hold their noses and vote for Macron, irritating though he is.
4. The final week won't take place in a vacuum. Expect Le Pen's record of being a bit too chummy with Putin to feature strongly - at exactly the same time that the full horrors of Putin are being splashed across French TV screens.
I think you could be overestimating Macron's ability to dominate the agenda in his favour between the two rounds.
Perhaps the biggest similarity with Brexit is that it's a battle of differential turnout, and he needs to motivate people to go out and reelect him.
Having checked the odds, I don't find 4/1on Le Pen attractive. I'd put her chances at more like 1 in 10.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling · 16h The RU forces - of various types - have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%...I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units.
This isn't a computer game, or stratego...those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another
I linked to that thread earlier. Excellent analysis
RU will be beaten is his analysis.
Hope that is true.
But he says nothing of what Vlad will do in those "existential" circumstances.
Which is why Ukraine must, to the extent possible, keep the fight within its own territory, and perhaps explains why they were not falling over themselves to claim the attacks on Belgograd.
I am presuming the US has, quietly through back channels, stated how serious the consequences of a nuclear strike would be. I don't see CW as too useful to the Russians outside of clearing basements of Ukrainian resistance in urban fighting once they already have taken the streets. Or in just killing unprotected civilians.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
Is Russia still a major power?
The Security Council was a combination of the victorious powers in WWII, not a neutral summary of them.
In 2017 first round vote Mélenchon took 37% of the Muslim vote followed by Macron on 24%.
It was a case of anybody but Le Pen.
In 2022 the second round was a foregone conclusion , this time not so .
This is likely to see the abstention rate fall as we head towards Election Day especially in the Muslim community who make up a crucial 8% of the population .
Pécresses voters currently break 65 to 35 towards Macron . What’s left of her vote is more centre right , the far right parties have already hovered up the more far right voters who jumped ship .
As in the UK older voters are more likely to turnout and Macron is winning this by a huge majority in the second round .
Le Pen can win but the current polling is over inflating her popularity in the second round . And she needs a perfect storm of events to deliver that .
People look at the polling and think Melenchon is out of it because it shows Macron beats him more easily in second round. I would caution against that. If he makes top two he will be looked at again and differently by a lot of voters, not least because he is a better campaigner and debater than Le pen and will slice and dice Macron in debates. And in your post, he retains the ethnic vote, thats harder to transfer to Le pen to keep out the clutches of Macron. I still think this is fluid enough, long enough to go, and so many previous first rounds thrown up surprises for Melenchon to sneak into last two. And once there present Macron a more dangerous opponent, one who brings the left and ethnic votes, in theory could attract the anti establishment anti EU votes of Zemmour and Le pen, and the protestors against Macrons pension and tax policies.
I'm always surprised that Le Pen doesn't get more of the Melenchon vote, because economically, he is very similar to her.
By contrast, Macron and Pecresse have almost identical economic policies, and they both supported pension and labour market reform.
So I find the idea that the Pecresse block is going sharply Le Pen in the second round slightly odd; I could see Melenchon's vote moving much more easily.
You can think of it a bit like the Red Wall seats and Labour. Economic antipathy towards the Tories fell and the more conservative social attitudes combined to help them in 2019.
You are right economically Le Pen is closer to Mélenchon but socially worlds apart and this will act as a block on vote transfers towards her in the second round .
Exactly. The idea that economic policy is all-important is itself a political opinion and is certainly not shared by all.
Indeed, economically seats like Oxford West and Abingdon and Putney should be Conservative and Leigh and Bolsover should be Labour. They were in 2015.
However now culture trumps economics post Brexit, Oxford West and Abingdon is LD and Putney Labour. While Leigh and Bolsover have gone Conservative
There is a lot of demographic change in Bolsover as well with new houses being built as well as the Brexit realignment although Labour still has a large WWC vote in Bolsover itself and Shirebrook. I also think the Tories overperformed in OxWAb in 2010 and 2015 because Cameron's seat was next door although probably safe LD now. I wouldn't write off the Tories chances of winning back Putney when the next Labour gvt loses power as they are still dominant at a local level and the Tories could still cling onto Wandsworth in May. Leigh is interesting although the Tories would need to hold their majority nationally to hold it probably.
I actually think the key determinant is age really and the level of pensioner voting for the Conservatives is now somewhat unique to Britain.
In most countries age has replaced class as the main determinant of voting intention for Conservatives. Pecresse still polls best amongst pensioners as did the CDU last year. Trump also still won pensioners in 2020 though he only tied Biden with the richest voters
I believe that Macron will win easily, albeit by a smaller margin than last time. I think those looking at the polls today are overlooking four key points:
1. In an opinion poll about a hypothetical (albeit expected) second round, those who strongly prefer one of the candidates whom the question assumes will be eliminated are loathe to admit that they will, after all, vote for the lesser of two evils. This is particularly important for the soft-left currently saying they'll vote Mélenchon.
2. Whilst it's true that Le Pen has benefitted from a smart campaign and especially by Zemmour making her look comparatively less toxic, she is still toxic to a lot of voters.
3. The grandees of all the various factions and other parties (excluding Zemmour's lot) are likely to come out strongly and urge their supporters to hold their noses and vote for Macron, irritating though he is.
4. The final week won't take place in a vacuum. Expect Le Pen's record of being a bit too chummy with Putin to feature strongly - at exactly the same time that the full horrors of Putin are being splashed across French TV screens.
I think you could be overestimating Macron's ability to dominate the agenda in his favour between the two rounds.
Perhaps the biggest similarity with Brexit is that it's a battle of differential turnout, and he needs to motivate people to go out and reelect him.
Having checked the odds, I don't find 4/1on Le Pen attractive. I'd put her chances at more like 1 in 10.
Agreed. The markets have now swung too far "in favour" of Le Pen
She was clearly VALUE at 14/1 last week; 4/1 seriously overrates her chances
Somewhere around 8/1 feels right, to me
She needs a lot of people who hate her to stay home out of apathy
Looks like Amazon have just block-booked a massive amount of rocket launches from ULA, Blue Origin and Ariancespace for their Kuiper satellite super constellation.
A total of 83 launches split between the three companies. Possibly $10 billion.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
Is Russia still a major power?
The Security Council was a combination of the victorious powers in WWII, not a neutral summary of them.
Russia still has the biggest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world. Unless that changes it has to be on the UNSC with a permanent veto
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
I think one of the more interesting results of recent French polling was the Ipsos question on who you would never under any circumstances vote for .
Le Pen 50%
Macron 34%
Behind the headline poll figures there is still a lot of anti Le Pen sentiment in the country.
There's a difference between never voting for her and going out to vote against her no matter what.
True but it depends what’s the greater motivator for voters . Loathing of a particular candidate can get people to the polls for fear of them winning .
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
The other thing about wind turbines is, of course, there is a whole generation who've grown up with them. They aren't eyesores, unsettling, or beautiful to my kids. They are just part of the landscape.
Hmm. Some of the comments on PB today remind me of reactions - very mixed - to electricity pylons (the lattice steelwork ones) in the 1930s or thereabouts. Novelty must be a factor.
As someone who did experiments on turbine blades (albeit much much smaller ones) I can appreciate their structure as much as anyone.
They just have their place, and it isn't somewhere where there are currently no structures visible.
We have very little wild land in this country. We shouldn't ruin what little is left.
I fear we may be talking at cross purposes as to what wild land actually is...
This is Fisherfield Forest:
How many wind turbines are appropriate? You could definitely site some on the flatter parts of Ruadh Stac Beag (left). This is not a National Park. You could definitely argue that 99.99% of the population will never go there.
You could probably create a hydro scheme while you are at it.
Oh, indeed, cross purposes. I wasn't thinking of wild land but more general countryside, yes. The responses to the pylons I seem to recall as being in the Home Counties and more generally lowland England where the National Grid was first developed, I expect.
OK, fair enough.
Fisherfield is not at risk, of course - I was taking an extreme example, although they do creep ever nearer to some of our remotest places. I think the most controversial schemes were on the Monadhliath and surrounding area and in Sutherland.
I think we have to accept a built environment in the general countryside as part of our need for infrastructure. Roads are probably worse than anything in terms of noise and pollution, and we should definitely take the Dutch approach and have more sound barriers on main roads.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
A member is committing genocide and indescribable war crimes and you think they should not be sanctioned within the UN membership
No he has not - he has invited expert geological advice to consider whether fracking is a viable and safe operation
To explore all domestic energy resources to try and expand supply and reduce energy prices
Good you have corrected your inaccurate post- 'explore' is different to your assertion
It will still end in more fracking, guaranteed. The need to lower energy prices makes that inevitable now
Nothing is guaranteed on fracking, though you are again playing with words to try to justify your inaccurate statement
And I repeat Kwarteng's statement for you
However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
A member is committing genocide and indescribable war crimes and you think they should not be sanctioned within the UN membership
The UN General Assembly already voted to condemn Russia's invasion by a majority vote. However security actions by the UN in response would by definition be vetoed by Russia as a permanent member of the UNSC
In 2017 first round vote Mélenchon took 37% of the Muslim vote followed by Macron on 24%.
It was a case of anybody but Le Pen.
In 2022 the second round was a foregone conclusion , this time not so .
This is likely to see the abstention rate fall as we head towards Election Day especially in the Muslim community who make up a crucial 8% of the population .
Pécresses voters currently break 65 to 35 towards Macron . What’s left of her vote is more centre right , the far right parties have already hovered up the more far right voters who jumped ship .
As in the UK older voters are more likely to turnout and Macron is winning this by a huge majority in the second round .
Le Pen can win but the current polling is over inflating her popularity in the second round . And she needs a perfect storm of events to deliver that .
People look at the polling and think Melenchon is out of it because it shows Macron beats him more easily in second round. I would caution against that. If he makes top two he will be looked at again and differently by a lot of voters, not least because he is a better campaigner and debater than Le pen and will slice and dice Macron in debates. And in your post, he retains the ethnic vote, thats harder to transfer to Le pen to keep out the clutches of Macron. I still think this is fluid enough, long enough to go, and so many previous first rounds thrown up surprises for Melenchon to sneak into last two. And once there present Macron a more dangerous opponent, one who brings the left and ethnic votes, in theory could attract the anti establishment anti EU votes of Zemmour and Le pen, and the protestors against Macrons pension and tax policies.
I'm always surprised that Le Pen doesn't get more of the Melenchon vote, because economically, he is very similar to her.
By contrast, Macron and Pecresse have almost identical economic policies, and they both supported pension and labour market reform.
So I find the idea that the Pecresse block is going sharply Le Pen in the second round slightly odd; I could see Melenchon's vote moving much more easily.
You can think of it a bit like the Red Wall seats and Labour. Economic antipathy towards the Tories fell and the more conservative social attitudes combined to help them in 2019.
You are right economically Le Pen is closer to Mélenchon but socially worlds apart and this will act as a block on vote transfers towards her in the second round .
Exactly. The idea that economic policy is all-important is itself a political opinion and is certainly not shared by all.
Indeed, economically seats like Oxford West and Abingdon and Putney should be Conservative and Leigh and Bolsover should be Labour. They were in 2015.
However now culture trumps economics post Brexit, Oxford West and Abingdon is LD and Putney Labour. While Leigh and Bolsover have gone Conservative
There is a lot of demographic change in Bolsover as well with new houses being built as well as the Brexit realignment although Labour still has a large WWC vote in Bolsover itself and Shirebrook. I also think the Tories overperformed in OxWAb in 2010 and 2015 because Cameron's seat was next door although probably safe LD now. I wouldn't write off the Tories chances of winning back Putney when the next Labour gvt loses power as they are still dominant at a local level and the Tories could still cling onto Wandsworth in May. Leigh is interesting although the Tories would need to hold their majority nationally to hold it probably.
I actually think the key determinant is age really and the level of pensioner voting for the Conservatives is now somewhat unique to Britain.
In most countries age has replaced class as the main determinant of voting intention for Conservatives. Pecresse still polls best amongst pensioners as did the CDU last year. Trump also still won pensioners in 2020 though he only tied Biden with the richest voters
Yes although in some European countries there is also still a lot of older working class support for social democratic parties. In Germany, the SPD is still reasonably strong with working class older voters at the same time the CDU/CSU core vote is skewed towards middle class older voters (particularly Catholics).
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
Because of nuclear weapons and the fear of MAD.
Not because of the League of United Nations.
And all the main nuclear weapons powers are permanent members of the UNSC.
So at times of high tension like the Cuban Missile Crisis or now discussions can take place within the UNSC rather than war
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
Incredible footage.
The economic cost of this must be off the scale.
What's odd is that I'd have thought the powers that be in China would be content for it just to spread through the country. Shit for the people, but no one is going to complain too much.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
To give the greenlight for a rethink on expanding fracking which the government desperately needs to do to reduce energy prices yes
We have had this discussion already. Fracking in the UK maybe good for the UK economy but it will do next to nothing for the price of energy as that is set by global prices. The fracking companies will sell at the global price. Obviously if more oil is produced all over the world that does have an impact, but that is not what you have said.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
I believe that Macron will win easily, albeit by a smaller margin than last time. I think those looking at the polls today are overlooking four key points:
1. In an opinion poll about a hypothetical (albeit expected) second round, those who strongly prefer one of the candidates whom the question assumes will be eliminated are loathe to admit that they will, after all, vote for the lesser of two evils. This is particularly important for the soft-left currently saying they'll vote Mélenchon.
2. Whilst it's true that Le Pen has benefitted from a smart campaign and especially by Zemmour making her look comparatively less toxic, she is still toxic to a lot of voters.
3. The grandees of all the various factions and other parties (excluding Zemmour's lot) are likely to come out strongly and urge their supporters to hold their noses and vote for Macron, irritating though he is.
4. The final week won't take place in a vacuum. Expect Le Pen's record of being a bit too chummy with Putin to feature strongly - at exactly the same time that the full horrors of Putin are being splashed across French TV screens.
I think you could be overestimating Macron's ability to dominate the agenda in his favour between the two rounds.
Perhaps the biggest similarity with Brexit is that it's a battle of differential turnout, and he needs to motivate people to go out and reelect him.
Having checked the odds, I don't find 4/1on Le Pen attractive. I'd put her chances at more like 1 in 10.
Yes, I'm about there too. Not clear to me where the PB Le Pen Rampers are coming from – she looks like a no-value loser from where I'm standing.
No he has not - he has invited expert geological advice to consider whether fracking is a viable and safe operation
To explore all domestic energy resources to try and expand supply and reduce energy prices
Good you have corrected your inaccurate post- 'explore' is different to your assertion
It will still end in more fracking, guaranteed. The need to lower energy prices makes that inevitable now
Nothing is guaranteed on fracking, though you are again playing with words to try to justify your inaccurate statement
And I repeat Kwarteng's statement for you
However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
You can guarantee the 'evidence' will give that, this is just cover for a decision Boris and the Government has effectively already made
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
You simply cannot accept you are ever in error can you
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
To give the greenlight for a rethink on expanding fracking which the government desperately needs to do to reduce energy prices yes
We have had this discussion already. Fracking in the UK maybe good for the UK economy but it will do next to nothing for the price of energy as that is set by global prices. The fracking companies will sell at the global price. Obviously if more oil is produced all over the world that does have an impact, but that is not what you have said.
If we produce more of our own energy by fracking then by definition that increases domestic supply which the government can mandate for domestic consumers to meet domestic demand. That in turn reduces domestic energy prices.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Well that went straight over your head.
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
Incredible footage.
The economic cost of this must be off the scale.
What's odd is that I'd have thought the powers that be in China would be content for it just to spread through the country. Shit for the people, but no one is going to complain too much.
Also kills a lot of really old, burdensome people. Given China's ageing population, that could be seen as a plus - if you're an inhuman autocrat
However the optics would be terrible; cf Hong Kong. Hundreds of thousands could die in agony, and not even China can repress all dissenting social media forever
Xi wants to get his third term at the end of this year. He will want to be seen as the victor over Covid. So the Zero Covid madness will continue
What is truly bizarre is this. Why has China not bought 4 billion doses of Pfizer or Moderna, then insisted that everyone be jabbed thrice? They could relabel the vax as China Pfizer and pretend it is home made if that matters. And surely compulsion won't worry them, they are willing to weld people into apartments, are they not willing to make vaccines mandatory?
Omicron Plus is no threat if you have universal vaccination with a good vax, across the ages. NZ proves this
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Well that went straight over your head.
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.
On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.
Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
Zelensky says Ukraine has "moral right" to demand a change to the world security system.
"If you don't know how to make a decision...you can remove Russia [from the security council], as an aggressor...or you can dissolve yourself altogether, if you can do nothing but talk." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1511357279777525765
You can't remove Russia or China from the UN Security Council as both have a veto power and nuclear weapons. The whole point of the UN Security Council is to include all the major global powers to try and avoid another major war
And you demonstrate just how ridiculous that is
Well we have not yet had WW3 77 years after WW2 ended. The creation of the UN as a forum for global discussion and UNSC with veto powers for the major powers is part of the reason for that
A member is committing genocide and indescribable war crimes and you think they should not be sanctioned within the UN membership
@HYUFD is just stating the facts of the matter. The UNSC P5 is not going to change, not as long as Russia is a major nuclear power. That's all there is to it
For a start, any attempt to change it would be vetoed - by Russia and China. Creating total impasse
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
I would suspect Covid cases dropping like a stone may also be related to the fact that LFTs are no longer free. Even my very Covid-nervous mother (with an underlying health condition) is coming to terms with the fact that regular testing of people before they see her will be coming to an end.
However, and I know this has been said before, I can't imagine there are many people who have not yet had some form of Covid in this country. We went through a lot of pain over the last two years but we are now in a much better position than China who had zero Covid for a long time.
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
We have a trial fracking site in the Flatlands (Misson, Nottinghamshire).
I don't know if they ever did much in the way of actual fracking as I never heard or felt anything but I certainly did feel the Market Rasen earthquake...which was probably 10,000 times stronger than anything they could generate.
We drink groundwater here so that's perhaps more of a concern but given what else goes on on the aquifer fracking is the least of our problems (nitrate pollution is pretty high, for example)
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
Yes it would, certainly in years to come and there are years to come until the next general election
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.
Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
Travel into and out of NZ aside, I reckon being there over the last couple of years would have been one of the best places to 'enjoy' the pandemic.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Well that went straight over your head.
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
Even if fracking was allowed it will not benefit the economy this side of GE24
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
I still don't think the French election is going to be especially close (though clearly closer than last time). The occasional poll shows the gap down to 3-4 points, but the vast majority of polls (including the three that appeared today) show it at 6-8 points. The figures look remarkably stable with the occasional outlier.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.
The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
Russia has been effectively kicked out of the Eurodollar system (read Adam Tooze) - which may well herald a new, parallel economic exchange system. This was pretty much unthinkable a couple of months ago.
It’s not, now, unthinkable that the UN/UNSC falls apart over this.
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Now now Anabobazina - no free tests so of course cases are dropping! Need the ONS to follow suite.
On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
True, although the fall in 'cases' is faster than the fall in testing... not that is should matter: it's as irrational to celebrate falling cases as it is to catastrophise increasing cases. They will ebb and flow, in waves, forever.
The 'incidental' admissions thing is completely and utterly crackers. I only learned recently (from Nick Triggle's excellent analysis) that now most covid hospitalisations are for something other than covid.
No matter what problems they might cause in hospital (and I know the problems are manifold) it is simply misleading to call these covid admissions – as they are, by their very definition, NOT admitted for covid!
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Well that went straight over your head.
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
Can you afford to lose all your Lancashire seats? And as many have said on here, fracking will not cure the energy price issue, it just pisses off people you don't want to piss off.
The kneejerk reaction by your Government to the energy crisis in terms of mini nukes and fracking has been quite shocking.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
It's not about house prices, it's about caring for the countryside. This is a very strong motivator amongst Conservative voters in rural areas, and quite rightly so.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Indeed there's always been plenty of NIMBYs in the Conservative Party. 👎
Ironic, because HYUFD is probably one of the biggest and if we were talking about his own backyard he'd be vehemently opposed.
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
I would suspect Covid cases dropping like a stone may also be related to the fact that LFTs are no longer free. Even my very Covid-nervous mother (with an underlying health condition) is coming to terms with the fact that regular testing of people before they see her will be coming to an end.
However, and I know this has been said before, I can't imagine there are many people who have not yet had some form of Covid in this country. We went through a lot of pain over the last two years but we are now in a much better position than China who had zero Covid for a long time.
All fair but note that the fall in positive tests is faster than the fall in testing (not that it matters – see my reply to Turbo above)
Russia has been effectively kicked out of the Eurodollar system (read Adam Tooze) - which may well herald a new, parallel economic exchange system. This was pretty much unthinkable a couple of months ago.
It’s not, now, unthinkable that the UN/UNSC falls apart over this.
It won't. Not while Russia has nuclear weapons.
The G7 and G20 are the main forums for economic powers anyway not the UNSC
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.
The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
There are far more opposed to sky high energy prices as there are now
Since fracking wouldn't reduce prices, and in any case it would take years before any gas was actually produced from fracking even if we went hell-for-leather for it starting today, that really isn't an argument.
Yes it would, certainly in years to come and there are years to come until the next general election
Years to come to the next GE - you mean 2 of course
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
Like you say you are not a geologist and the 'earthquakes' caused by fracking are so minor as to be a complete red herring. It is particularly amusing in areas like the Vale of Glamorgan and Lancashire where mining caused far greater earth movements and real - rather than imagined - damage throughout its life. There are thousands of earthquakes each year in the UK and, try as they might, geologists still haven't been able to detect a meaningful increase in perceptible earthquakes associated with fracking in the UK.
Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
Given the actual state of the Russian forces, what is practically achievable for them in Ukraine?
Mainly: the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.
Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.
It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
Their lockdown is ferocious. Children taken from parents - even babies. There are multiple videos showing riots and unrest: people fighting back
Of course Twitter, disinfo, etc, but there is too much evidence for it all to be fabulated. A somewhat perilous moment for the CCP. Zero Covid is ending in disaster
Zerocovidianism at home and abroad has all the hallmarks of an inertia-driven credo. Its advocates cannot bear to admit to themselves that it was futile, and now continue with it, despite it obviously being completely pointless.
Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
Travel into and out of NZ aside, I reckon being there over the last couple of years would have been one of the best places to 'enjoy' the pandemic.
They have had pretty severe and prolonged lockdowns though at times, especially in Auckland. Certainly in the early days of the pandemic you are right though.
France's election is fascinating. I could see a number of different options - from a thumping Macron win over Melanchon, through both victory and defeat against Le Pen.
What's interesting is that Macron is being blamed for the cost of living increases - which are principally petrol/diesel. France's electricity prices are among Europe's lowest and are still essentially set by the government, in that they own the majority of generator EDF. Average electricity bills will rise just EUR38 this year, which is a level that we in the UK (or those in other European countries) can only dream of*.
But people still really still care about petrol prices, and the war in Ukraine (and France's sanctions on Russia) are seen as being responsible for this. And Le Pen has played this skillfully: both distancing herself from Putin and hinting that she would bring petrol prices down by (something, something) Russia/Ukraine.
So... what happens next?
Well, I like to think that the French will not vote solely based on lower petrol prices. But what do I know?
I think the most likely scenario is that Macron is around five points clear of Le Pen in the first round, and then limps to a 5 or 6 point win in the second. But that isn't something I'd like to bet my house on (unless the odds were *really* attractive). And things are very fluid right now: a defeat for Russia, and an inevitable collapse in energy prices, would probably seal the deal for Macron. But if the conflict is grinding on, and Le Pen appears to offer relief to French wallets, then it will likely be very close.
* We have petrol, heating and electricity prices rises to hit our wallets.
Following up my previous post below with interesting graph from last time, I am going to go with a bit more depth into the reasons why Macron has lost this.
I think what proves me right, that it’s a changed Landscape and Macrons policies don’t fit it, is staring us in the face in that old graph I just pasted and how we know landscape has changed during his presidency to convert abstentions and macron votes last time now to stop Macron votes.
Fillion 20, Hamon 6.4 that’s 26 minus 9 for pecrasse = 17 That’s 17 from moderates to the anti establishment block from last time. Why? how? the main thing that us creating this bloc against Macron is Macron himself. He has been unable to straddle a foot in the social reform/nationalism/EU sceptic positions, with a foot in the pro business and establishment bloc, his positioning, posturing and policies during this term is his biggest problem. Macron, through a stubbornness or arrogance in his personality type, set out on a mission to be resolute and change things his way in 2014, like a French thatcher, the result is the bloc thot defeats him.
But it didn’t have to happen, that’s the take out. Text books will be written how he could have won, but didn’t have the imagination to be a good political strategist and serial election winner.
I’ll give you an example by contrasting with a serial election winner, agile enough to keep the opposition out of power. Bismark kept winning. He done this by adopting the social economics of the Austrian School. Where you would think the socialists would need to win to give Germany the beginnings of welfare state, Bismark stole that, thus bestridding everything like a colossus a foot in both camps.
Macron has done the opposite. The shared policies that unite the country from left to right against him stem from Macron’s stubbornness to reach out to other policy platforms, whilst integrating his own.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire, and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Well that went straight over your head.
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
1 seat, if energy prices continue to rise sky high the entire redwall will go back to Labour overnight. Guaranteed
Can you afford to lose all your Lancashire seats? And as many have said on here, fracking will not cure the energy price issue, it just pisses off people you don't want to piss off.
The kneejerk reaction by your Government to the energy crisis in terms of mini nukes and fracking has been quite shocking.
We won't lose all our Lancashire seats, most will not be near fracking sites. However even if we did we would still have a small majority.
However we cannot afford to lose all our redwall seats which we would do unless we cut energy prices and get fracking and extracting shale as we then have no majority at all.
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Sorry to hear you have Covid. If only you'd worn a mask......
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
Like you say you are not a geologist and the 'earthquakes' caused by fracking are so minor as to be a complete red herring. It is particularly amusing in areas like the Vale of Glamorgan and Lancashire where mining caused far greater earth movements and real - rather than imagined - damage throughout its life. There are thousands of earthquakes each year in the UK and, try as they might, geologists still haven't been able to detect a meaningful increase in perceptible earthquakes associated with fracking in the UK.
Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
Thank you. Certainly the water pollution is a big concern.
It's bizarre. It's not particularly certain to be much use in the UK, and when there is tidal energy and other oilfields and gas ... become a right-wing shibboleth.
Sorry but @HYUFD is not correct saying the UK will expand fracking
No I am correct.
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
Are you sure? Lots of Tory MPs in rural Lancashire and of course my very own Vale of Glamorgan has a Conservative MP. We NIMBYS don't like fracking because we don't like earthquakes.
Of all the arguments against fracking - many of which are valid - the earthquakes argument is the most stupid.
I am not a geologist, but the science of jetting water into geological fissures at high pressure is good enough for me.
Like you say you are not a geologist and the 'earthquakes' caused by fracking are so minor as to be a complete red herring. It is particularly amusing in areas like the Vale of Glamorgan and Lancashire where mining caused far greater earth movements and real - rather than imagined - damage throughout its life. There are thousands of earthquakes each year in the UK and, try as they might, geologists still haven't been able to detect a meaningful increase in perceptible earthquakes associated with fracking in the UK.
Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
There is one thing I would like to add: AIUI (*) not just water is put down the well, but other ingredients designed to enlarge the pore spaces to release the gas. *Everything* put down a well should be public domain, and not trade secret.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.
The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
Only a tiny fraction of the country will live near an area affected by fracking sites.
The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
Just explain how it reduces prices? You keep ignoring this. Prices are set by global factors not a couple of wells in the UK. Unless of course you want to go all Venezuela on us.
The more you produce energy domestically and mandate it to be used only for the domestic energy market, the less you need to rely on global energy sources elsewhere. Boris is not a classical liberal but quite big state economically when required, I am sure he will do the necessary
(Even if they don't have the equipment to operate it, it's one less for the Russians, and I bet the Yanks will pay them generously for an intact Ka-52.
Some interesting stats on types of cars sold recently.
Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP @grantshapps 2m March was a record-breaking month for the sale of new EVs! 1 in 5 new cars registered had a plug and & more fully electric cars were sold than in the whole of 2019⚡ The #EV revolution is driving the UK towards our net zero goals with cleaner air and greener jobs!🌍 https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1511370540178628617
Over half of all cars sold in March had some form of electric engine capability. Diesels now just 5% of sales and sales of petrols and diesels are plummeting. The current situation for energy I am sure is accelerating (pun intended) this. In 5 years' time the cars on the road will be very different from now.
On tracking its laughable it is stopped on the slight chance it causes a slight earthquake yet we build nuclear power plants that can destroy entire regions and has toxic waste for centuries
'aint gonna be any kind of peace deal any time soon...
Deborah Haynes @haynesdeborah · 1h Asked by @SkyNews how Ukraine could negotiate with Russia's Vladimir Putin given the atrocities allegedly committed by his forces, the Ukrainian interior minister said, speaking in English: “Go to hell.”
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
Are you actually supposed to do that still?
Well my question would be how the stats appear on the government website unless people do?
The dashboard has been, I would say, open government at its absolute best. A real achievement, and the civil servants responsible should be congratulated again and again. It's given amateurs exactly the same data that government ministers have been getting, and allowed proper questioning of the government to be reasonably carried out. A pity journalists never learned to interrogate it properly, but that's not the fault of the dashboard's creators: the site was almost unbelievably user-friendly. But it could only work with the data it had. Once it was up and running, the data it had went from pretty good to really very good indeed as the breadth of testing increased. But surely the raw data for cases is now so partial as to be almost useless? I suppose the data for deaths is still in the upper half of reliable. And the data for hospitalisations is useful, though suffers from the hospitalised for/hospitalised with dichotomy.
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Yes, especially as fracking is most likely to take place in locations populated by Tory voters. HYUFD is wrong on this I think - Labour and Green voters, largely in the cities, may disapprove but are less affected personally.
Number of Tory seats affected by fracking? 20% at most.
Number of Tory seats affected by higher energy bills? 100%.
On tracking its laughable it is stopped on the slight chance it causes a slight earthquake yet we build nuclear power plants that can destroy entire regions and has toxic waste for centuries
Most of those who dislike fracking vote Labour or Green already.
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Err, unless things have changed quite spectacularly since I resigned from the party, I can categorially assure you than there are plenty of Conservative voters who are extremely opposed to fracking.
Afternoon all. People opposed to fracking include, I suggest, the sort of people who are concerned with house values, in particular the value of their own house. A significant proportion of such people, surely, vote Conservative.
It's not about house prices, it's about caring for the countryside. This is a very strong motivator amongst Conservative voters in rural areas, and quite rightly so.
I wrote ‘include’ intentionally; there are the people you describe as well. Some, of course, are both!
Covid 'cases' now dropping like a stone and hospitalisations shortly to follow.
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
Not least because who on earth, on getting a positive covid test, is still reporting it to the government?
Are you actually supposed to do that still?
Well my question would be how the stats appear on the government website unless people do?
The dashboard has been, I would say, open government at its absolute best. A real achievement, and the civil servants responsible should be congratulated again and again. It's given amateurs exactly the same data that government ministers have been getting, and allowed proper questioning of the government to be reasonably carried out. A pity journalists never learned to interrogate it properly, but that's not the fault of the dashboard's creators: the site was almost unbelievably user-friendly. But it could only work with the data it had. Once it was up and running, the data it had went from pretty good to really very good indeed as the breadth of testing increased. But surely the raw data for cases is now so partial as to be almost useless? I suppose the data for deaths is still in the upper half of reliable. And the data for hospitalisations is useful, though suffers from the hospitalised for/hospitalised with dichotomy.
Serves no purpose other than putting fear into people. Get rid. More relevant to have the nuclear clock on the dashboard if you want to scare people
Comments
Hope that is true.
But he says nothing of what Vlad will do in those "existential" circumstances.
The economic cost of this must be off the scale.
Before Taiwan in effect was considered to be China on the UNSC
This is just the move the government wants to greenlight expanding fracking to increase energy supply and try and reduce energy bills
I am presuming the US has, quietly through back channels, stated how serious the consequences of a nuclear strike would be. I don't see CW as too useful to the Russians outside of clearing basements of Ukrainian resistance in urban fighting once they already have taken the streets. Or in just killing unprotected civilians.
The Security Council was a combination of the victorious powers in WWII, not a neutral summary of them.
She was clearly VALUE at 14/1 last week; 4/1 seriously overrates her chances
Somewhere around 8/1 feels right, to me
She needs a lot of people who hate her to stay home out of apathy
A total of 83 launches split between the three companies. Possibly $10 billion.
Will 'expand' is not the same as 'explore'
Maybe read this from the BBC and stop prevaricating
BBC News - Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng orders scientific review of fracking impact
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60999026
This extract relates to the actual position
However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
Not because of the League of United Nations.
Fisherfield is not at risk, of course - I was taking an extreme example, although they do creep ever nearer to some of our remotest places. I think the most controversial schemes were on the Monadhliath and surrounding area and in Sutherland.
I think we have to accept a built environment in the general countryside as part of our need for infrastructure. Roads are probably worse than anything in terms of noise and pollution, and we should definitely take the Dutch approach and have more sound barriers on main roads.
In case anyone missed it, this is what the replacement pylons may look like:
https://www.nationalgrid.com/national-grid-build-worlds-first-t-pylon-somerset
And I repeat Kwarteng's statement for you
However, the business secretary added: "Unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrates that shale gas extraction is safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, the pause in England will remain in place."
So at times of high tension like the Cuban Missile Crisis or now discussions can take place within the UNSC rather than war
The choice for the government is to not allow fracking so energy bills continue to rise drastically higher and certainly lose the next general election and the swing voters in the red wall or allow fracking and annoy mainly leftwing voters who won't vote Conservative anyway
Why not just say 'I was in error'
I have done it many times on here, indeed I have apologised to various posters on here when I was wrong
You should try it - you would feel good about yourself if you did
I have covid. I cannot for the life of me see what the point is with continuing with this 'dashboard' other than to negatively affect the mental health of the nation.
Are there any plans to bin it?
The point is, if fracking is allowed in Llandow, CONSERVATIVE voters in Llantwit Major and Cowbridge will not be voting for Alun Cairns, certainly if he backs it.
However the optics would be terrible; cf Hong Kong. Hundreds of thousands could die in agony, and not even China can repress all dissenting social media forever
Xi wants to get his third term at the end of this year. He will want to be seen as the victor over Covid. So the Zero Covid madness will continue
What is truly bizarre is this. Why has China not bought 4 billion doses of Pfizer or Moderna, then insisted that everyone be jabbed thrice? They could relabel the vax as China Pfizer and pretend it is home made if that matters. And surely compulsion won't worry them, they are willing to weld people into apartments, are they not willing to make vaccines mandatory?
Omicron Plus is no threat if you have universal vaccination with a good vax, across the ages. NZ proves this
Time to isolate Russia from the world community
On your substantive point I tend to agree. I notice that we haven't had the data on incidentals (or I haven't noticed it), but over half of admissions are with covid not from it. Still causes complications (both for the patient and for the care) but its slightly dishonest to compare admissions on that basis.
Jacinda Ardern gets a lot of stick on here, but to be fair to her, she has dropped the idea, even if the restrictions in NZ have been overdone and unduly prolonged.
For a start, any attempt to change it would be vetoed - by Russia and China. Creating total impasse
However, and I know this has been said before, I can't imagine there are many people who have not yet had some form of Covid in this country. We went through a lot of pain over the last two years but we are now in a much better position than China who had zero Covid for a long time.
I don't know if they ever did much in the way of actual fracking as I never heard or felt anything but I certainly did feel the Market Rasen earthquake...which was probably 10,000 times stronger than anything they could generate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Market_Rasen_earthquake
We drink groundwater here so that's perhaps more of a concern but given what else goes on on the aquifer fracking is the least of our problems (nitrate pollution is pretty high, for example)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election?msclkid=3a2f1e7db4b711ec889c34f7ef66b060
The vast majority of the country will be affected by ever higher energy bills unless we get fracking and extracting shale too
The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting.
Russia has been effectively kicked out of the Eurodollar system (read Adam Tooze) - which may well herald a new, parallel economic exchange system. This was pretty much unthinkable a couple of months ago.
It’s not, now, unthinkable that the UN/UNSC falls apart over this.
The 'incidental' admissions thing is completely and utterly crackers. I only learned recently (from Nick Triggle's excellent analysis) that now most covid hospitalisations are for something other than covid.
No matter what problems they might cause in hospital (and I know the problems are manifold) it is simply misleading to call these covid admissions – as they are, by their very definition, NOT admitted for covid!
The kneejerk reaction by your Government to the energy crisis in terms of mini nukes and fracking has been quite shocking.
Ironic, because HYUFD is probably one of the biggest and if we were talking about his own backyard he'd be vehemently opposed.
The G7 and G20 are the main forums for economic powers anyway not the UNSC
Worry about the potential chemical pollution of the aquifers (cement jobs are never as good as drillers claim) and the thousands of wells that would need to be drilled in close proximity to each other to make fracking practical rather than the red herring of earthquakes.
In the short and medium term, a secondary achievement is the diminution of Russia as a global power.
Long term, that is all. They have created a solid Ukrainian mythos from what was a slightly fragile state. Even *if* they were to capture all of the country tomorrow in an unprecedented reversal of martial skills, that Ukrainian mythos will live on. Like in 1989, the occupiers will eventually leave, even if it takes decades.
It is hard to think of metaphors for the damage Russia is inflicting on itself. Their best move would be to pull out all the troops immediately. The best way for them to win is not to play; and the longer they leave that decision, the worse things get for them.
However we cannot afford to lose all our redwall seats which we would do unless we cut energy prices and get fracking and extracting shale as we then have no majority at all.
If only you'd worn a mask......
(*) Correct me if necessary.
He has astonished me and Boris needs to move him on
So out of touch
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1511359412971216902
(Even if they don't have the equipment to operate it, it's one less for the Russians, and I bet the Yanks will pay them generously for an intact Ka-52.
Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP @grantshapps
2m
March was a record-breaking month for the sale of new EVs! 1 in 5 new cars registered had a plug and & more fully electric cars were sold than in the whole of 2019⚡ The #EV revolution is driving the UK towards our net zero goals with cleaner air and greener jobs!🌍
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1511370540178628617
Over half of all cars sold in March had some form of electric engine capability. Diesels now just 5% of sales and sales of petrols and diesels are plummeting. The current situation for energy I am sure is accelerating (pun intended) this. In 5 years' time the cars on the road will be very different from now.
Deborah Haynes
@haynesdeborah
·
1h
Asked by
@SkyNews
how Ukraine could negotiate with Russia's Vladimir Putin given the atrocities allegedly committed by his forces, the Ukrainian interior minister said, speaking in English: “Go to hell.”
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah
The dashboard has been, I would say, open government at its absolute best. A real achievement, and the civil servants responsible should be congratulated again and again. It's given amateurs exactly the same data that government ministers have been getting, and allowed proper questioning of the government to be reasonably carried out. A pity journalists never learned to interrogate it properly, but that's not the fault of the dashboard's creators: the site was almost unbelievably user-friendly.
But it could only work with the data it had. Once it was up and running, the data it had went from pretty good to really very good indeed as the breadth of testing increased. But surely the raw data for cases is now so partial as to be almost useless?
I suppose the data for deaths is still in the upper half of reliable. And the data for hospitalisations is useful, though suffers from the hospitalised for/hospitalised with dichotomy.
Number of Tory seats affected by higher energy bills? 100%.
Do the maths
It is his money
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/sky-news-tories-b992638.html