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Sunday’s French election is getting very tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    Who co-ran the Wuhan lab, and was WHO’s only American on the team that went to Wuhan?

    Peter Daszak. Here he is on Twitter. And he will talk to you, unless you get too knowledgeable, then he might block you

    @PeterDaszak

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    The early letter to the Lancet - organised by Daszak - was crucial in suppressing debate about a lab leak, as a racist conspiracy theory. The lancet is edited by

    @richardhorton1

    One of the main British players in this suppression was the head of Wellcome

    @JeremyFarrar

    The lab leak theory returned when some scientist-thinkers began talking to other anonymous scientists. Thinkers like

    @Ayjchan

    “Advisor to Harvard and MIT”.

    Chan is absolutely crucial to this debate. She tweets all the time

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them

    One crucial absentee is Ralph Baric. The only other major western scientist doing GOF with Wuhan. He did have an account, I believe, but it’s disappeared

    And of course all the Chinese in China. Where is Shi Zhengli, the bat woman?

    Otherwise they are all there. Here they are, arguing this week
    So, hold on, do I understand that you're getting your information on who is important in this debate but not on Twitter.. from Twitter?

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    ...

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    For instance, the "most important early paper on the origins of Covid" was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    So, wait, one of five isn’t on Twitter, and that proves your point? Lol

    Moreover, K G Andersen is by far the most important as he was the one in the first email chain with Daszak, Fauci et al. The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens. Heads down territory

    Who wrote the recent market-origins preprint that made the NYT front page and changed the narrative for a few days?

    @MichaelWorobey

    Also

    @K_G_Andersen

    And

    @MarionKoopmans

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter


    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    I watched (or rewatched I suppose) Hislop on 'Fake News' last night. My issue with twitter is not so much fake news, just concentrated shrieking. You have polarised opinions, followed by people who are very much of the same opinion and echo everything round in spades.

    You need only look at Covid for the example. On all sides there are 'experts' who post stuff and have their sycophantic crowd lap it all up. From iSAGE Cristina Pagel, Deepti Gurdassani etc. Their followers treat them like crusading heroes. I'm sure it is the same for the covid deniers (David Paton seems to be one, or at least anti vaccination/restrictions). One striking feature of this is often the experts are not actually directly expert in the field.
    As I said it's great for live events (eg the various terrorist attacks in London) where someone will post on Twitter if not live feeds then close to that.

    For everything else it is part of the whole body of knowledge, which has to be carefully sifted through and 2x checked from other sources.
    There is clearly a more rapid info stream from Twitter during rapidly changing events for sure. The mainstream do need to check things before releasing info. It can lead to misinformation though.
    Yes absolutely. I remember being away and watching on TV many years ago some (PIRA) action in London on both Sky and BBC. Sky had the live feeds, smoke rising, etc while you'd never know anything had happened from the BBC. Then on the hour the BBC had a very polished, informative piece about it.

    There is a place for both but my go-to place for info/footage when there is an incident is twitter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915
    On topic.

    French Electricity Prices have gone wild:




    That peak hour is €3 per kWh.

    The reason seems to be mass maintenance on ancient nuclear power stations.

    And a lot of central heating in France is direct electric.

    Potential impact in Election?

    https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/1510549520626692102
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,212

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.
    (Snip)

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    Is anyone arguing for unrestricted development ?
    At the moment there's an effective moratorium - and the most stupid restriction (a stupidly low maximum size) prevents efficient use of non controversial sites.

    Local consent should be a planning principle - but that should not mean, as now, allowing a single objector to block a development.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    For some reason I found this picture even more upsetting than the terrible photos of dead bodies:

    image

    A Ukrainian woman mourns the death of her husband who was killed in Bucha

    It is always harrowing to bring it down the individual. That is a great and valid example of the way that Ukraine is also winning the social media war.

    Not many Nikon D850s in Fallujah, by way of contrast.
    Fair point.

    I just found it very moving - thinking how would I feel in a similar situation?
    I think someone somewhere called the war the "middle class war" which was also a key motivating factor for public opinion.

    This for example after a random google.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/when-middle-class-white-people-are-being-bombed-we-pay-attention-1.4818479
    Polls show that Africans, Latin Americans and south Asians don’t really give a fuck about the Ukraine war. Hence their neutrality. “It’s just a bunch of white Europeans bombing each other, far away in Europe”

    In which case, why should Europeans give a fuck about wars in Africa Asia or South America? “It’s just a bunch of Asians killing each other”

    This is human nature. Ukraine is happening to people like us. Near us. We care more. It’s not racism it’s reality
    Do you think there would be more interest in this country in a story about flooding in Adelaide, or flooding in Kisumu? And why?
    Coz I don’t even know where or what Kisumu is
    Indeed!

    The point here is that distance isn't everything. Familiarity makes things subjectively more important. My bet is that more people in African, LatAm, or India would be interested in a Spain-invades-Portugal story than are are interested in Russia-invades-Ukraine, even if distances are similar. There are stronger historical (imperial) ties with both Iberian countries, so more interest.

    It's the "like us" part that is important to people, not so much the "near us". And it's not racism, no, but it's a cousin.
    So we are all "sort of racist" because humans are more interested in humans more like them, or nearer to them

    Brilliant insight. Thanks. It's stuff like this that makes me come back to PB
    It was a theory that you dismissed out of hand and laughed at when applied to trade with, immigration from, and indeed membership of the EU.
    I absolutely did not. Retract

    I wanted us to stay in the Single Market via some kind of EFTA arrangement, at least for a while (a decade) - I said this repeatedly, I was a "soft Leaver" - and I always said I had no problem with Freedom of Movement. Indeed I deeply regret the loss of it, and I remarked during the campaign that the Leave campaign was being disingenuous on this issue

    However the public was only offered one lever to pull, with which to slow down immigration, and it was marked "Brexit", so they pulled it
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    ...

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.
    This is one of PB's weirdest arguments. People with some kind of hatred of Twitter, to the extent they are convinced it MUST BE useless. It's a bit like Brexit, people hate it so much anything to do with "Britain" becomes loathsome

    Why do arguments get polarised like this, nowadays? Probably social media. eg, er, Twitter

    The truth is Twitter is toxic, polarising and full of bullshit and hatred, in some ways I wish it could be disinvented, alongside all other social media. Just look at the Trans-Terf wars (enacted partly if not mainly on Twitter). UGH

    But is social media good at disseminating information? Yes, humanity has never had anything to compare, not remotely, and the very best social medium for newsier info is Twitter (certainly in the west).

    That's it. End of argument. We can now discuss Scottish local elections
    No one is saying it's useless, just that it is a subset of the information out there. It does not form the basis for the entirety of our opinions.

    Plus I am delighted that PB-ers are the ones (uniquely? Perhaps) who can distinguish between the gems and the dross on twitter. Thank goodness for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Selling Channel4 serns both driven by politics and hardly a priority, but I also cannot help but feel the commentariat and pundit furore seems overblown
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    For some reason I found this picture even more upsetting than the terrible photos of dead bodies:

    image

    A Ukrainian woman mourns the death of her husband who was killed in Bucha

    It is always harrowing to bring it down the individual. That is a great and valid example of the way that Ukraine is also winning the social media war.

    Not many Nikon D850s in Fallujah, by way of contrast.
    Fair point.

    I just found it very moving - thinking how would I feel in a similar situation?
    I think someone somewhere called the war the "middle class war" which was also a key motivating factor for public opinion.

    This for example after a random google.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/when-middle-class-white-people-are-being-bombed-we-pay-attention-1.4818479
    Polls show that Africans, Latin Americans and south Asians don’t really give a fuck about the Ukraine war. Hence their neutrality. “It’s just a bunch of white Europeans bombing each other, far away in Europe”

    In which case, why should Europeans give a fuck about wars in Africa Asia or South America? “It’s just a bunch of Asians killing each other”

    This is human nature. Ukraine is happening to people like us. Near us. We care more. It’s not racism it’s reality
    Do you think there would be more interest in this country in a story about flooding in Adelaide, or flooding in Kisumu? And why?
    Coz I don’t even know where or what Kisumu is
    Indeed!

    The point here is that distance isn't everything. Familiarity makes things subjectively more important. My bet is that more people in African, LatAm, or India would be interested in a Spain-invades-Portugal story than are are interested in Russia-invades-Ukraine, even if distances are similar. There are stronger historical (imperial) ties with both Iberian countries, so more interest.

    It's the "like us" part that is important to people, not so much the "near us". And it's not racism, no, but it's a cousin.
    So we are all "sort of racist" because humans are more interested in humans more like them, or nearer to them

    Brilliant insight. Thanks. It's stuff like this that makes me come back to PB
    Uh, no. When I said "it's not racism", how did you understand that to mean the opposite?
    Probably when you said this:


    "And it's not racism, no, but it's a cousin."

    ie "sort of racism", as I expressed it

    You're not on form today, are you?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    Who co-ran the Wuhan lab, and was WHO’s only American on the team that went to Wuhan?

    Peter Daszak. Here he is on Twitter. And he will talk to you, unless you get too knowledgeable, then he might block you

    @PeterDaszak

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    The early letter to the Lancet - organised by Daszak - was crucial in suppressing debate about a lab leak, as a racist conspiracy theory. The lancet is edited by

    @richardhorton1

    One of the main British players in this suppression was the head of Wellcome

    @JeremyFarrar

    The lab leak theory returned when some scientist-thinkers began talking to other anonymous scientists. Thinkers like

    @Ayjchan

    “Advisor to Harvard and MIT”.

    Chan is absolutely crucial to this debate. She tweets all the time

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them

    One crucial absentee is Ralph Baric. The only other major western scientist doing GOF with Wuhan. He did have an account, I believe, but it’s disappeared

    And of course all the Chinese in China. Where is Shi Zhengli, the bat woman?

    Otherwise they are all there. Here they are, arguing this week
    So, hold on, do I understand that you're getting your information on who is important in this debate but not on Twitter.. from Twitter?

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    ...

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    For instance, the "most important early paper on the origins of Covid" was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    So, wait, one of five isn’t on Twitter, and that proves your point? Lol

    Moreover, K G Andersen is by far the most important as he was the one in the first email chain with Daszak, Fauci et al. The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens. Heads down territory

    Who wrote the recent market-origins preprint that made the NYT front page and changed the narrative for a few days?

    @MichaelWorobey

    Also

    @K_G_Andersen

    And

    @MarionKoopmans

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter


    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    I watched (or rewatched I suppose) Hislop on 'Fake News' last night. My issue with twitter is not so much fake news, just concentrated shrieking. You have polarised opinions, followed by people who are very much of the same opinion and echo everything round in spades.

    You need only look at Covid for the example. On all sides there are 'experts' who post stuff and have their sycophantic crowd lap it all up. From iSAGE Cristina Pagel, Deepti Gurdassani etc. Their followers treat them like crusading heroes. I'm sure it is the same for the covid deniers (David Paton seems to be one, or at least anti vaccination/restrictions). One striking feature of this is often the experts are not actually directly expert in the field.
    As I said it's great for live events (eg the various terrorist attacks in London) where someone will post on Twitter if not live feeds then close to that.

    For everything else it is part of the whole body of knowledge, which has to be carefully sifted through and 2x checked from other sources.
    There is clearly a more rapid info stream from Twitter during rapidly changing events for sure. The mainstream do need to check things before releasing info. It can lead to misinformation though.
    Much of the live 'info's rolling stories turns out to be utter garbage. You see it on PB during developing events (@Leon). Avoid it. It is worse than nothing.
    Not when following or during, say, a terrorist incident you see footage of ARVs turning up and SCO19 shooting citizens on the street it's not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    Maybe attitudes will start to change as nearly 20,000 body bags come back to Russia, or maybe Putin can gloss over that too.

    The majority of KIAs will be from backwards shitholes in places like Dagestan and Ingushetia with dirt roads and a donkey for mayor. It won't matter a fucking jot.
    That donkey is a great mayor, leave him out of it.

    But I can well believe recruiting from the poor areas helps cover any outrage.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    TOPPING said:

    Phil said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    This is like getting paid in gold coins. What a pain in the arse. (Unless you actual want the BTC of course.)
    BTC currently 46,593 bid.

    Oh how we laughed at those who bought at 16,000...
    Since it was pointed out that, actually, its not a great place to hide assets from prying governments, Bitcoin has somewhat lost its lustre for me.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    MattW said:

    On topic.

    French Electricity Prices have gone wild:




    That peak hour is €3 per kWh.

    The reason seems to be mass maintenance on ancient nuclear power stations.

    And a lot of central heating in France is direct electric.

    Potential impact in Election?

    https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/1510549520626692102

    Macron has put a price cap on any energy cost rises of 4% . It forced EDF to swallow the increase which investors weren’t happy about .
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 502
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?
    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965). I picked it because it happened to be the second highest scoring result, but you could just have put "Danish mask study" into Google before embarassing yourself.
    IshmaelZ said:

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.

    Why don't you use this site selectively and intelligently, and look at what's been said in the conversation to date? "80% of the main players are on Twitter", "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter", " you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe... There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them".
    Leon said:

    The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens

    If people tweet, it's because Twitter is important. If people don't tweet, it's because Twitter is important.
    Leon said:

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter

    Yes, those are all the people who contributed to the paper who are on Twitter. But they're not all the people who contributed to the paper, as you would know if you had gone through to the paper instead of sitting on Twitter:

    Pekar, Jonathan E.; Magee, Andrew; Parker, Edyth; Moshiri, Niema; Izhikevich, Katherine; Havens, Jennifer L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Malpica Serrano, Lorena M.; Crits-Christoph, Alexander; Matteson, Nathaniel L.; Zeller, Mark; Levy, Joshua I.; Wang, Jade C.; Hughes, Scott; Lee, Jungmin; Park, Heedo; Park, Man-Seong; Ching Zi Yan, Katherine; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Mat Isa, Mohd Noor; Muhammad Noor, Yusuf; Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Garry, Robert F.; Holmes, Edward C.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Worobey, Michael; Wertheim, Joel O.

    And these are just the ones that are on Twitter, despite some of them never having tweeted (e.g. Edward C. Holmes, as I pointed out earlier). However, the more important point is that it would have taken a second to click through to the paper and notice that there were far more authors listed than in the tweet. So you did read the paper, right? Because it would sort of make a mockery of the Twitter aficionado argument that you have "direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe" if nobody ever looks at anything other than their tweets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    I take it there's no major expansion.

    That is indeed bad news.

    i. It's the quickest form of energy generation, onshore wind can be put up in 6 months to a year iirc.
    ii. It's the cheapest at ~ 4p/kwh production, even with backup diesel it only goes to 5p or so.
    iii. It's green, not that I could really give a shit at this point - but it helps in the good old court of public opinion and all that.
    iv. No existential danger unlike nuclear.
    v. We've made loads of turbines so it's a very known tech.
    No expansion at all it seems.
    Tory NIMBYS on the prowl.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/05/boris-johnson-blows-cold-on-onshore-wind-faced-with-100-plus-rebel-mps
    Need all local elections on the same 4 year cycle then thr yearly nimby impact might lessen.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,776
    MattW said:

    On topic.

    French Electricity Prices have gone wild:




    That peak hour is €3 per kWh.

    The reason seems to be mass maintenance on ancient nuclear power stations.

    And a lot of central heating in France is direct electric.

    Potential impact in Election?

    https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/1510549520626692102

    That's not the retail price. Most French consumers are on Tarif Bleu which the government regulates and forces EdF to eat the cost. That's why electricity prices on Tarif Bleu only went up 4% this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    HYUFD said:

    Ipsos French runoff polls

    Macron 54%
    Le Pen 46%

    Macron 58%
    Melenchon 42%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511261296645357570?s=20&t=UfR2mbyTWodwepxRFBV-PQ

    The PB Le Pen rampers won’t be happy.
    Just hoping for excitement.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    MISTY said:

    TOPPING said:

    Phil said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    This is like getting paid in gold coins. What a pain in the arse. (Unless you actual want the BTC of course.)
    BTC currently 46,593 bid.

    Oh how we laughed at those who bought at 16,000...
    Since it was pointed out that, actually, its not a great place to hide assets from prying governments, Bitcoin has somewhat lost its lustre for me.
    Lol! How sad to believe that any government was actually interested in you enough to look.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    For some reason I found this picture even more upsetting than the terrible photos of dead bodies:

    image

    A Ukrainian woman mourns the death of her husband who was killed in Bucha

    It is always harrowing to bring it down the individual. That is a great and valid example of the way that Ukraine is also winning the social media war.

    Not many Nikon D850s in Fallujah, by way of contrast.
    Fair point.

    I just found it very moving - thinking how would I feel in a similar situation?
    I think someone somewhere called the war the "middle class war" which was also a key motivating factor for public opinion.

    This for example after a random google.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/when-middle-class-white-people-are-being-bombed-we-pay-attention-1.4818479
    Polls show that Africans, Latin Americans and south Asians don’t really give a fuck about the Ukraine war. Hence their neutrality. “It’s just a bunch of white Europeans bombing each other, far away in Europe”

    In which case, why should Europeans give a fuck about wars in Africa Asia or South America? “It’s just a bunch of Asians killing each other”

    This is human nature. Ukraine is happening to people like us. Near us. We care more. It’s not racism it’s reality
    Do you think there would be more interest in this country in a story about flooding in Adelaide, or flooding in Kisumu? And why?
    Coz I don’t even know where or what Kisumu is
    Indeed!

    The point here is that distance isn't everything. Familiarity makes things subjectively more important. My bet is that more people in African, LatAm, or India would be interested in a Spain-invades-Portugal story than are are interested in Russia-invades-Ukraine, even if distances are similar. There are stronger historical (imperial) ties with both Iberian countries, so more interest.

    It's the "like us" part that is important to people, not so much the "near us". And it's not racism, no, but it's a cousin.
    So we are all "sort of racist" because humans are more interested in humans more like them, or nearer to them

    Brilliant insight. Thanks. It's stuff like this that makes me come back to PB
    It was a theory that you dismissed out of hand and laughed at when applied to trade with, immigration from, and indeed membership of the EU.
    I absolutely did not. Retract

    I wanted us to stay in the Single Market via some kind of EFTA arrangement, at least for a while (a decade) - I said this repeatedly, I was a "soft Leaver" - and I always said I had no problem with Freedom of Movement. Indeed I deeply regret the loss of it, and I remarked during the campaign that the Leave campaign was being disingenuous on this issue

    However the public was only offered one lever to pull, with which to slow down immigration, and it was marked "Brexit", so they pulled it
    It is a fairly safe bet to ascribe to you just about every opinion about Brexit that it was possible to hold in the run up to and aftermath of the vote.

    And the ridicule that for example the gravity theory of trade attracted on here was quite widespread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    On Channel 4, unless I'm mistaken Dorries made the announcement that it is to be privatised straight after Parliament stood down for the Easter recess.

    The Speaker will not be happy. And nor should anybody who thinks, like me, that a major announcement about the future (or lack of future) of a public service broadcaster should be made to the House of Commons in the first instance.

    I think the outrage in those situations is very formulaic. It happens over and over and nothing changes. People know that's not how it's done anymore but we pay lip service to it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Edit: @Leon blathering on, quasi-religiously, about twitter.

    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    No because in both cases the information we know how to find is a tiny subset of all available information, and twitter is an incredible tool for finding relevant information. (If used correctly that is, if you use it wrong it's an incredible tool for creating an elaborate mental model consisting of complete bullshit.)
    This is supposed to be an endorsement of twitter?

    The point is that the definitive (if there is one) commentary on any given subject is overwhelmingly likely not to be found on Twitter. It is likely to be found in various articles, papers, newspapers, other accounts. If some of those are referenced on Twitter then you are back where you started vs Gary Google. Arguably worse because as everyone including you acknowledge it's easy to get yourself into a self-affirming death spiral on twitter.
    I'm not making any claim about whether Twitter is good for society or something, I'm saying it's an incredible tool for getting good information if used correctly. One of the things it can help with is finding which are the appropriate papers to read and getting some context to understand what they mean, which you wouldn't get from just googling. It's possible that it's collectively making the world dumber because most people use it wrong, I have no idea either way. If you don't know how to use it correctly and want to, see my explanation upthread.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,713
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    Selling Channel4 serns both driven by politics and hardly a priority, but I also cannot help but feel the commentariat and pundit furore seems overblown

    We need to see if Boris flogs it off to one of his political allies. If so then we're in the realms of an Orbánite takeover of the media.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,212
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    Who co-ran the Wuhan lab, and was WHO’s only American on the team that went to Wuhan?

    Peter Daszak. Here he is on Twitter. And he will talk to you, unless you get too knowledgeable, then he might block you

    @PeterDaszak

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    The early letter to the Lancet - organised by Daszak - was crucial in suppressing debate about a lab leak, as a racist conspiracy theory. The lancet is edited by

    @richardhorton1

    One of the main British players in this suppression was the head of Wellcome

    @JeremyFarrar

    The lab leak theory returned when some scientist-thinkers began talking to other anonymous scientists. Thinkers like

    @Ayjchan

    “Advisor to Harvard and MIT”.

    Chan is absolutely crucial to this debate. She tweets all the time

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    Also worth noting that the opposition to lockdown which was threatened last December came about almost entirely due to a twitter conversation.
    So much stuff which wouldn't see the light of day does so because of twitter.
    The platform is awful, and frustrating, and there is a non-stop cacophony of people shouting at each other. But it is also a better way of everyone talking to everyone than has ever existed.
    I think we were probably better off before Twitter was invented. It has a lot of positives, but the negatives outweigh them. It's had a damaging effect on the sense of solidarity that holds societies together, especially in the United States.
    No, that is Facebook.
    Twitter's effects are minuscule in comparison - and it doesn't make by design the same kind of hermetic opinion silos.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,132

    Jimmy
    @JimmySecUK
    The head of the DNR, Denis Pushilin, awarding a medal to Lieutenant Colonel Timur Kurilkin for "destroying 250 Nazis" - which is ironic, considering Kurilkin has two neo-Nazi patches clearly visible on his uniform.

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1511001899184627712
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022


    Jimmy
    @JimmySecUK
    The head of the DNR, Denis Pushilin, awarding a medal to Lieutenant Colonel Timur Kurilkin for "destroying 250 Nazis" - which is ironic, considering Kurilkin has two neo-Nazi patches clearly visible on his uniform.

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1511001899184627712

    Or as the BBC would describe such imagery if worn by an Ukrainian as not considered problematic or linked to Nazism by their own people.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    IshmaelZ said:

    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?
    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965). I picked it because it happened to be the second highest scoring result, but you could just have put "Danish mask study" into Google before embarassing yourself.
    IshmaelZ said:

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.

    Why don't you use this site selectively and intelligently, and look at what's been said in the conversation to date? "80% of the main players are on Twitter", "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter", " you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe... There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them".
    Leon said:

    The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens

    If people tweet, it's because Twitter is important. If people don't tweet, it's because Twitter is important.
    Leon said:

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter

    Yes, those are all the people who contributed to the paper who are on Twitter. But they're not all the people who contributed to the paper, as you would know if you had gone through to the paper instead of sitting on Twitter:

    Pekar, Jonathan E.; Magee, Andrew; Parker, Edyth; Moshiri, Niema; Izhikevich, Katherine; Havens, Jennifer L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Malpica Serrano, Lorena M.; Crits-Christoph, Alexander; Matteson, Nathaniel L.; Zeller, Mark; Levy, Joshua I.; Wang, Jade C.; Hughes, Scott; Lee, Jungmin; Park, Heedo; Park, Man-Seong; Ching Zi Yan, Katherine; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Mat Isa, Mohd Noor; Muhammad Noor, Yusuf; Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Garry, Robert F.; Holmes, Edward C.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Worobey, Michael; Wertheim, Joel O.

    You did read the paper, right? Because it would sort of make a mockery of the points about having "direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe" if nobody ever looks at anything other than their tweets.
    You actually did that. You went through them all. lol, you sad fuck

    So 32 people cited, 19 ARE on Twitter, 13 not, and most of those not on Twitter are non-westerners (esp Chinese)?

    QED. Twitter is invaluable, as I said, but biased to western sources of information, as I said

    NOW we can move on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,132
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    When Russia comes to ask to be let back into the world economy & world society, it will not be enough that it withdraw from (or has been driven from) Ukraine. It needs to be reduced as a threat to the world. It needs to cut down its nuclear arsenal to ~300 warheads, for a start.

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    If Russia will not agree to reduce its military for itself, we will need to reduce its military for it, by denying it the economic means to sustain that military. One way or another, its threat is going to be reduced following these events - permanently.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1511282151584583682
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    When are you going to convert the Bitcoin?
    Dunno. Nobody knows less about money and finance shit than me. I had to get the kid from the village that I pay to detail cars to set up the wallet for me.
    He's already stolen your bitcoin and invested it in monkeys.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    I take it there's no major expansion.

    That is indeed bad news.

    i. It's the quickest form of energy generation, onshore wind can be put up in 6 months to a year iirc.
    ii. It's the cheapest at ~ 4p/kwh production, even with backup diesel it only goes to 5p or so.
    iii. It's green, not that I could really give a shit at this point - but it helps in the good old court of public opinion and all that.
    iv. No existential danger unlike nuclear.
    v. We've made loads of turbines so it's a very known tech.
    No expansion at all it seems.
    Tory NIMBYS on the prowl.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/05/boris-johnson-blows-cold-on-onshore-wind-faced-with-100-plus-rebel-mps
    Need all local elections on the same 4 year cycle then thr yearly nimby impact might lessen.
    Anybody that votes LibDem is banned from using the term "NIMBY" because, you know, the fucking hypocrisy....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Edit: @Leon blathering on, quasi-religiously, about twitter.

    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    No because in both cases the information we know how to find is a tiny subset of all available information, and twitter is an incredible tool for finding relevant information. (If used correctly that is, if you use it wrong it's an incredible tool for creating an elaborate mental model consisting of complete bullshit.)
    This is supposed to be an endorsement of twitter?

    The point is that the definitive (if there is one) commentary on any given subject is overwhelmingly likely not to be found on Twitter. It is likely to be found in various articles, papers, newspapers, other accounts. If some of those are referenced on Twitter then you are back where you started vs Gary Google. Arguably worse because as everyone including you acknowledge it's easy to get yourself into a self-affirming death spiral on twitter.
    I'm not making any claim about whether Twitter is good for society or something, I'm saying it's an incredible tool for getting good information if used correctly. One of the things it can help with is finding which are the appropriate papers to read and getting some context to understand what they mean, which you wouldn't get from just googling. It's possible that it's collectively making the world dumber because most people use it wrong, I have no idea either way. If you don't know how to use it correctly and want to, see my explanation upthread.
    My conclusion from this thread is that many PB-ers are indeed using Twitter wrong

    You have to employ the search engine, and then you have to sift and filter, and follow the more promising threads quite deeply - but skeptically

    At the same time, your general stream has to be carefully curated: make sure you don't follow too many people. I have found around 400 is an ideal number, enough to keep the feed interesting, but not overwhelming, and you absolutely need a mix of all opinions; often you will get perceptive remarks from people way out left or right or Falun Gong or whatever. Expand and contract your roster of people-to-follow as the news changes

    And definitely ask direct questions of anyone you like, they will often reply, however lofty or distant they seem

    Do all that and it is is highly useful, despite the endless bile and lies
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,953
    "Novelists are afraid of class
    It is now taboo to write about social differences
    BY PHILIP HENSHER"

    https://unherd.com/2022/04/novelists-are-afraid-of-class/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,212
    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    Perhaps they believed it to be the only Ente in existence which has done 160mph on the M4 ?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited April 2022
    Lennon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    The government is broke. If selling Channel
    4 would make us all £1bn, then sell it

    How on earth would it change, if sold? It will still be just another tv channel with advertising. I don’t know a single programme which I watch “because it’s on Channel 4”. And I never ask myself “ooh, what’s on Channel 4?” - because I don’t use TV like that any more. I pick and choose from online, streaming etc

    And there’s the rub. The idea of “channels” is dying. Which means that soon C4 will be almost worthless - just a brand and some buildings. Worth ten million

    Sell it now when we can make real money

    Channel 4 is several channels including all4, more4 and E4. Channel 4 seem better than the beeb at realising linear channels are on the way out too.

    I cannot see any reason why it should be state owned.

    As a broadcaster it’s okay. It’s hardly a bastion of high quality tv. It has some good stuff and plenty of pap on it. Like any other broadcaster. I’ve not heard one good objection to it being privatised.

    In the long term it is too small, too niche, and hard to see who it will appear to in future.

    I suspect the Tory objections are partly party politics.
    If the Tory objections are partly party politics, then you have to say Channel 4 only have themselves to blame. You can predict with 100% accuracy which way they will come down on a story - and their gotcha! interviews mean nobody wants to go on their news output.

    A somewhat more nuanced approach occasionally might have paid better dividends.

    Of course, they might survive with a blatant left-wing slant in a commercial sphere. Might.
    The thing is, Channel 4 News doesn't only have a periodic left-wing slant, but also, very often and in many different types of contexts, too, a clear upmarket and in-depth, analytical slant, compared to virtually every other current news programme on British TV ( this wasn't the case 25 years ago). That also costs money ; Newsnight is a shadow of its former self since the huge cuts to its budget, for instance, and this money will probably be the first to go under privatisation.

    The Channel 4 News and Current Affairs budget is huge - £660 million, largely as a figleaf to to fulfil the public service remit it no longer does elsewhere, since the 1990's Broadcasting Act stopped it being helped by ITV's advertising funding stream to be more ambitious.
    CH4 works fine. It's an asset to the broadcasting landscape, a public good, costs the taxpayer nothing. There's no problem to fix other than the one they're actually trying to fix - they don't like its politics. The 'cultural vandalism' charge stacks up imo.
    Yes, making Nadine Dorries Minister for Culture is no more sensible than making Boris Minister for Fidelity, for example.
    Genuine question - what is culture? Is it art, theatre, plays, opera? Or is it TV, cinema, books (but which books? Airport trash such as the Ice Twins, or serious guff like Bring Up The Bodies?) Are all cultures equal? Does someone watching Saturday Night Takeaway get the same pleasure as someone watching La Boheme?
    Do you need to be high culture to appreciate it?
    Between the mid-1980's and mid-1990's, nearly all these things were regularly on TV at various times. In our modern times, Nadine is the minister for reduced culture.
    In what way?
    At the end of the 1980's there was backlash against "highbrow culture" from figures such as Murdoch, who had the ear of Thatcher. Part of the restructuring of broadcasting wasn't only market-fundamentalism, but also a sort of anti-elitism that didn't turn out too well, often replacing with commercial banalities. When all the delicate balance of commercial and non-commercial factors that made British TV was unpicked, all the huge variety that was on TV during this time - from the "lowest" to the "highest" art - was lost.

    My point was really that the modern Conservative party has long since lost touch with understanding of issues like this. Channel 4 was a commercial-public enterprise, with just as strong an influence from businessmen as highbrow patrons of culture like Jeremy Isaacs.
    Thats not really Nadine though is it? Incidentally, do you have access to Sky Arts? Some excellent stuff on there.
    Also - the BBC did the excellent Hollow Crown Shakespeare adaptations not that long ago. Even naughtily casting a woman of colour in a key role, the swines. Just to wind up the gammons.

    I guess for me broadcasting has been atomised. You want nature programmes, there's a channel for that. You want sport, theres about thirty, and in fact thats become atomised too. In the 70's and 80's there were 3 (three) TV channels in the UK. It was not the golden age we recall - the hits are recalled fondly, and still shown, but the dross is lost in the mists of time.
    I wouldn't really agree there, I have to say ; I remember a very specific schedule from 1990 was posted up on one of the discussions on this we've had recently on PB, and there was quite a lot of multi-generational agreement on the loss of variety and depth.
    There is always a danger of cherry picking though. You'd need to look at some rainy Tuesday nights and get a broader sample to be fair.
    This is the schedule for Tuesday 5th April 1994 (ie today for whichever year in the early 90's today was also a Tuesday). https://tvrdb.com/listings/1994-04-05

    Presented without comment other than to say that 'Throw Momma from the Train' is apparently a Danny DeVito and Billy Crystal film that I was previously entirely unaware of.
    Interesting choice of schedule, as it already shows some of the changes that were in train from the 1990 version posted up here a few months ago.

    The infamous Carlton has already junked any sign of Thames's weekday current affairs, I can see - no longer required to under the public service remit for bidding ; but its also striking that, even though the BBC2 schedule is a lot less interesting than the previous one, two years into Birt's tenure there's still room for 40 Minutes in prime time, and what looks like another documentary or two. Often to be replaced by lifestyle strands, as the decade went on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,296
    HYUFD said:
    I wonder how much substance the tripartite UK/Poland/Ukraine agreement has. There's a lot of potential to deepen it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    Who co-ran the Wuhan lab, and was WHO’s only American on the team that went to Wuhan?

    Peter Daszak. Here he is on Twitter. And he will talk to you, unless you get too knowledgeable, then he might block you

    @PeterDaszak

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    The early letter to the Lancet - organised by Daszak - was crucial in suppressing debate about a lab leak, as a racist conspiracy theory. The lancet is edited by

    @richardhorton1

    One of the main British players in this suppression was the head of Wellcome

    @JeremyFarrar

    The lab leak theory returned when some scientist-thinkers began talking to other anonymous scientists. Thinkers like

    @Ayjchan

    “Advisor to Harvard and MIT”.

    Chan is absolutely crucial to this debate. She tweets all the time

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    Also worth noting that the opposition to lockdown which was threatened last December came about almost entirely due to a twitter conversation.
    So much stuff which wouldn't see the light of day does so because of twitter.
    The platform is awful, and frustrating, and there is a non-stop cacophony of people shouting at each other. But it is also a better way of everyone talking to everyone than has ever existed.
    I think we were probably better off before Twitter was invented. It has a lot of positives, but the negatives outweigh them. It's had a damaging effect on the sense of solidarity that holds societies together, especially in the United States.
    No, that is Facebook.
    Twitter's effects are minuscule in comparison - and it doesn't make by design the same kind of hermetic opinion silos.
    I'd say they are poisonous in different ways. Facebook makes political arguments horribly personal. But Twitter has a special way of quickly escalating discussions into vitriol - anonymous abuse and the like
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    When Russia comes to ask to be let back into the world economy & world society, it will not be enough that it withdraw from (or has been driven from) Ukraine. It needs to be reduced as a threat to the world. It needs to cut down its nuclear arsenal to ~300 warheads, for a start.

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    If Russia will not agree to reduce its military for itself, we will need to reduce its military for it, by denying it the economic means to sustain that military. One way or another, its threat is going to be reduced following these events - permanently.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1511282151584583682

    Problem being, if Putin is going to lose them, he might think "May as well use them then...."

    I do have a concern that by retreating out of so much of Ukraine, Russia now has less to lose by using nukes. They have such a spiteful mindset, they might just turn Kyiv into trinitite because they can.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The thing about Twitter is that it can be incredibly informative, but you're in control of your own stream, so if you're not working hard at making it informative, you can turn it into a tool to misinform yourself.

    Used right, you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe without a media filter which would try to cram everything into some preexisting news template, and if you're wondering about something you can just ask them, and you'll often get a useful answer. It's just an incredible thing to be able to do: There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them.

    I find Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. There are 8 billion people in the world, but only 397 million people on Twitter, and only 206 million use it daily. So if there are 100 people in the world who know a lot about a topic, Twitter will maybe let you find out what five of them think - provided that they have posted about that topic, of course; I'd be surprised if more than two of those five would respond to unsolicited DMs or being tagged on a topic. And, of course, Twitter's algorithms are more likely to serve you tweets from the 10% of users who make 92% of the tweets, than the five users who know anything about the topic.
    Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter, so although you may not have the 100 best-informed people, you'll have way more than the 5 you'd get from a random sample of the earth's population. It probably doesn't work if you want to know about the opinions of sub-saharan subsistence farmers, although you might find someone who polled them.
    As I said, I find the Twitter users' faith in the power of the platform bizarre. I am an English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff; I work in a department with ten other English-speakers whose job it is to know about stuff. One of them, and not the best informed among us, uses Twitter. The idea that only sub-saharan subsistence farmers don't Tweet just goes to show what a bubble hardcore Twitter users live in - but just look how absolute your faith is that your bubble is providing you with access to everybody in the world who knows something about a topic!
    OK then let’s drill down. And let’s take the “Covid origins” story as an example. Because I know it well, not because it is uniquely tweety

    Who co-ran the Wuhan lab, and was WHO’s only American on the team that went to Wuhan?

    Peter Daszak. Here he is on Twitter. And he will talk to you, unless you get too knowledgeable, then he might block you

    @PeterDaszak

    The most important early paper on the origins of Covid was in Nature. It was written by

    @K_G_Andersen

    The early letter to the Lancet - organised by Daszak - was crucial in suppressing debate about a lab leak, as a racist conspiracy theory. The lancet is edited by

    @richardhorton1

    One of the main British players in this suppression was the head of Wellcome

    @JeremyFarrar

    The lab leak theory returned when some scientist-thinkers began talking to other anonymous scientists. Thinkers like

    @Ayjchan

    “Advisor to Harvard and MIT”.

    Chan is absolutely crucial to this debate. She tweets all the time

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    Also worth noting that the opposition to lockdown which was threatened last December came about almost entirely due to a twitter conversation.
    So much stuff which wouldn't see the light of day does so because of twitter.
    The platform is awful, and frustrating, and there is a non-stop cacophony of people shouting at each other. But it is also a better way of everyone talking to everyone than has ever existed.
    I think we were probably better off before Twitter was invented. It has a lot of positives, but the negatives outweigh them. It's had a damaging effect on the sense of solidarity that holds societies together, especially in the United States.
    No, that is Facebook.
    Twitter's effects are minuscule in comparison - and it doesn't make by design the same kind of hermetic opinion silos.
    I'd say they are poisonous in different ways. Facebook makes political arguments horribly personal. But Twitter has a special way of quickly escalating discussions into vitriol - anonymous abuse and the like
    The big problem with twitter is trying to "correct" incorrect information is like nailing shit to the wall. Even when somebody is acting in good faith, makes a mistake and tries to correct it, the correction tweet doesn't gain the same level of engagement so doesn't get thrust into peoples feeds like the original one that goes viral

    For bad faith actors this is perfect e.g. Fake Dr Eoin Clarke did this regularly. Post loads of horseshit, eventually somebody would say this is actionably false you need to issue correction, which he eventually did, but too late and nobody saw it.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 502
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?
    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965). I picked it because it happened to be the second highest scoring result, but you could just have put "Danish mask study" into Google before embarassing yourself.
    IshmaelZ said:

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.

    Why don't you use this site selectively and intelligently, and look at what's been said in the conversation to date? "80% of the main players are on Twitter", "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter", " you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe... There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them".
    Leon said:

    The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens

    If people tweet, it's because Twitter is important. If people don't tweet, it's because Twitter is important.
    Leon said:

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter

    Yes, those are all the people who contributed to the paper who are on Twitter. But they're not all the people who contributed to the paper, as you would know if you had gone through to the paper instead of sitting on Twitter:

    Pekar, Jonathan E.; Magee, Andrew; Parker, Edyth; Moshiri, Niema; Izhikevich, Katherine; Havens, Jennifer L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Malpica Serrano, Lorena M.; Crits-Christoph, Alexander; Matteson, Nathaniel L.; Zeller, Mark; Levy, Joshua I.; Wang, Jade C.; Hughes, Scott; Lee, Jungmin; Park, Heedo; Park, Man-Seong; Ching Zi Yan, Katherine; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Mat Isa, Mohd Noor; Muhammad Noor, Yusuf; Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Garry, Robert F.; Holmes, Edward C.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Worobey, Michael; Wertheim, Joel O.

    You did read the paper, right? Because it would sort of make a mockery of the points about having "direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe" if nobody ever looks at anything other than their tweets.
    You actually did that. You went through them all. lol, you sad fuck
    The slapdash approach may work for travel journalism: in the field I work in, we expect a little bit of thoroughness in source handling.
    Leon said:

    So 32 people cited, 19 ARE on Twitter, 13 not, and most of those not on Twitter are non-westerners (esp Chinese)? QED. Twitter is invaluable

    Look, if you want to rank the opinion of an "undergraduate student studying math-CS" over someone working in Korea University's Institute for Viral Diseases, be my guest. But at the end of the day, what you'll find on Twitter is not "80% of the main players" or "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff" - it's people who call those who click through to sources "sad fuck"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937


    Jimmy
    @JimmySecUK
    The head of the DNR, Denis Pushilin, awarding a medal to Lieutenant Colonel Timur Kurilkin for "destroying 250 Nazis" - which is ironic, considering Kurilkin has two neo-Nazi patches clearly visible on his uniform.

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1511001899184627712

    He was actually awarded the medal for being a Lieutenant Colonel that survived four weeks....

    The only recipient.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?
    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965). I picked it because it happened to be the second highest scoring result, but you could just have put "Danish mask study" into Google before embarassing yourself.
    IshmaelZ said:

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.

    Why don't you use this site selectively and intelligently, and look at what's been said in the conversation to date? "80% of the main players are on Twitter", "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter", " you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe... There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them".
    Leon said:

    The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens

    If people tweet, it's because Twitter is important. If people don't tweet, it's because Twitter is important.
    Leon said:

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter

    Yes, those are all the people who contributed to the paper who are on Twitter. But they're not all the people who contributed to the paper, as you would know if you had gone through to the paper instead of sitting on Twitter:

    Pekar, Jonathan E.; Magee, Andrew; Parker, Edyth; Moshiri, Niema; Izhikevich, Katherine; Havens, Jennifer L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Malpica Serrano, Lorena M.; Crits-Christoph, Alexander; Matteson, Nathaniel L.; Zeller, Mark; Levy, Joshua I.; Wang, Jade C.; Hughes, Scott; Lee, Jungmin; Park, Heedo; Park, Man-Seong; Ching Zi Yan, Katherine; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Mat Isa, Mohd Noor; Muhammad Noor, Yusuf; Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Garry, Robert F.; Holmes, Edward C.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Worobey, Michael; Wertheim, Joel O.

    You did read the paper, right? Because it would sort of make a mockery of the points about having "direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe" if nobody ever looks at anything other than their tweets.
    You actually did that. You went through them all. lol, you sad fuck
    The slapdash approach may work for travel journalism: in the field I work in, we expect a little bit of thoroughness in source handling.
    Leon said:

    So 32 people cited, 19 ARE on Twitter, 13 not, and most of those not on Twitter are non-westerners (esp Chinese)? QED. Twitter is invaluable

    Look, if you want to rank the opinion of an "undergraduate student studying math-CS" over someone working in Korea University's Institute for Viral Diseases, be my guest. But at the end of the day, what you'll find on Twitter is not ""80% of the main players" or "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff" - it's people who call those who click through to sources "sad fuck"
    Actually, I am going to apologise for calling you a "sad fuck". I'm fasting out here in Izmir, it makes me feisty. My insult was uncalled for. Sorry

    But you are simply wrong on Twitter. It is invaluable and peerless, as a source of newsy information: if used correctly
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    When are you going to convert the Bitcoin?
    Dunno. Nobody knows less about money and finance shit than me. I had to get the kid from the village that I pay to detail cars to set up the wallet for me.
    He's already stolen your bitcoin and invested it in monkeys.
    Monkeys? Not the ones in the zoo?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    For instance, the most early paper on the origins of Covid was written by five authors, not one. Two of them (Kristen G. Anderson and Andrew Rambaut) are on Twitter. W. Ian Lipkin is not; Robert F. Garry and Edward C. Holmes are, but have either never tweeted or have not tweeted in over a year. And then we have other important papers, like "Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial" - lead author Henning Bundgaard, never tweeted.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on. About 80% of the main players are on Twitter

    How do you get your information about who the "main players" are who are NOT on Twitter?
    Because it’s fucking obvious. People get mentioned but they don’t have Twitter accounts or they don’t use them
    It's so fucking obvious, you never bothered to go through to Nature and see who had actually written the paper. And that's why I talk about Twitter users having absolute faith in their bubble: you never even considered that a discussion on Twitter is already skewed towards mentioning people who are on Twitter.
    That bundgaard paper is right up there with "The economic influence of the developments in shipbuilding techniques, 1450 to 1485." Is that really the most important paper not on twitter you can come up with?
    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965). I picked it because it happened to be the second highest scoring result, but you could just have put "Danish mask study" into Google before embarassing yourself.
    IshmaelZ said:

    And wtf does it matter whether all 5 co authors of a paper on twitter, when just one of them is enough to find the paper? You have to use twitter selectively and intelligently. It's like wikipedia; you don't believe a word it says without corroboration, but you go there for a pointer to the sources.

    Why don't you use this site selectively and intelligently, and look at what's been said in the conversation to date? "80% of the main players are on Twitter", "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff is on Twitter", " you have direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe... There's something in the news on a planet of 8 billion people, there are say 100 people in the world who know a lot about it, and anyone, with no particular power or connections, can just... talk to them".
    Leon said:

    The other two on Twitter that “aren’t tweeting” are probably not tweeting BECAUSE Twitter is where all the debate happens

    If people tweet, it's because Twitter is important. If people don't tweet, it's because Twitter is important.
    Leon said:

    And, ah, fuck it: all these people. All on Twitter

    Yes, those are all the people who contributed to the paper who are on Twitter. But they're not all the people who contributed to the paper, as you would know if you had gone through to the paper instead of sitting on Twitter:

    Pekar, Jonathan E.; Magee, Andrew; Parker, Edyth; Moshiri, Niema; Izhikevich, Katherine; Havens, Jennifer L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Malpica Serrano, Lorena M.; Crits-Christoph, Alexander; Matteson, Nathaniel L.; Zeller, Mark; Levy, Joshua I.; Wang, Jade C.; Hughes, Scott; Lee, Jungmin; Park, Heedo; Park, Man-Seong; Ching Zi Yan, Katherine; Tzer Pin Lin, Raymond; Mat Isa, Mohd Noor; Muhammad Noor, Yusuf; Vasylyeva, Tetyana I.; Garry, Robert F.; Holmes, Edward C.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Worobey, Michael; Wertheim, Joel O.

    You did read the paper, right? Because it would sort of make a mockery of the points about having "direct access to domain experts about any topic in the known universe" if nobody ever looks at anything other than their tweets.
    You actually did that. You went through them all. lol, you sad fuck
    The slapdash approach may work for travel journalism: in the field I work in, we expect a little bit of thoroughness in source handling.
    Leon said:

    So 32 people cited, 19 ARE on Twitter, 13 not, and most of those not on Twitter are non-westerners (esp Chinese)? QED. Twitter is invaluable

    Look, if you want to rank the opinion of an "undergraduate student studying math-CS" over someone working in Korea University's Institute for Viral Diseases, be my guest. But at the end of the day, what you'll find on Twitter is not ""80% of the main players" or "Pretty much any English-speaker whose job it is to know about stuff" - it's people who call those who click through to sources "sad fuck"
    Actually, I am going to apologise for calling you a "sad fuck". I'm fasting out here in Izmir, it makes me feisty. My insult was uncalled for. Sorry

    But you are simply wrong on Twitter. It is invaluable and peerless, as a source of newsy information: if used correctly
    That explains a lot of your posts... ;)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    I take it there's no major expansion.

    That is indeed bad news.

    i. It's the quickest form of energy generation, onshore wind can be put up in 6 months to a year iirc.
    ii. It's the cheapest at ~ 4p/kwh production, even with backup diesel it only goes to 5p or so.
    iii. It's green, not that I could really give a shit at this point - but it helps in the good old court of public opinion and all that.
    iv. No existential danger unlike nuclear.
    v. We've made loads of turbines so it's a very known tech.
    No expansion at all it seems.
    Tory NIMBYS on the prowl.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/05/boris-johnson-blows-cold-on-onshore-wind-faced-with-100-plus-rebel-mps
    Need all local elections on the same 4 year cycle then thr yearly nimby impact might lessen.
    Anybody that votes LibDem is banned from using the term "NIMBY" because, you know, the fucking hypocrisy....
    Once upon a happy time, a LibDem on here boasted to me that mid-Wales would be very, very grateful to have its hills and mountains covered with wind-farms.

    It was a LibDem who lived a long, long way away from mid-Wales, somewhere near Bedford as I recollect :).

    At the time, there were LibDem MPs for Ceredigion, Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

    And so it came to pass that the hills outside Welshpool sprouted wind-farms. They did not generate much local employment, and the profits were made by companies over the hills and far away. There was no local gain or advantage in hosting the windfarms.

    And so the Tories took Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire, and Plaid Cymru took Ceredigion at Westminster. And so the LibDems lost their mid-Wales Senedd seats.

    And so the conclusion was, I spose, a happy one. Many more wind-farms than LibDems in mid-Wales.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965).

    Does the nature of the paper in the no 3 slot not give you the tiniest hint that Altemetric, whatever it is, is maybe not measuring anything useful? Try assessing things on the basis of what they actually are rather than where they appear on a fucking spreadsheet.

    danish masks=LOL
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568



    Pagel's feed is a dark place indeed. There are people on there who claim never to have left the house in 600+ days. I assumed they were spoofs. But with Twitter, one never knows.

    I have a colleague who says exactly that (except she says two years). She has a medical condition which makes her much more likely than most of us to die if she catches Covid, and she feels she can have a pleasant life at home, and that it beats the hell out of being dead. She is exceptionally productive with really high-quality work, and seems quite happy too.

    It's one extreme of the personal choices that we're all making, and I don't think we can really judge each others' decisions, any more than the other extreme of someone going clubbing every night and accepting that they'll catch Covid at frequent intervals. We grow so attached to the way we live that it's hard to imagine living quite differently, but people do. Somehow the passion has gone out of the argument, now that it's basically being left up to us.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 701

    So I’m just over a quarter of the way into my trek to Figueres (9 miles in, 23 to go) and stopped for my first break. It feels a tad early to have my first beer of the day, but it’s the only drink I’ve got with me and the riverside seemed a nice place to sit down for a few minutes. I’ve been looking out for wildlife, but so far just seen a couple of burros.


    Liked the picture of the donkeys. We've been watching Stanley Tucci's TV series on Italian food on BBCiplayer. On his trip to Scicily (to be shown this Sunday), he samples in a local restaurant a steak tartare made from donkey meat. Although Stanley says it is delicious and sweet, I don't fancy it much myself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022



    Pagel's feed is a dark place indeed. There are people on there who claim never to have left the house in 600+ days. I assumed they were spoofs. But with Twitter, one never knows.

    I have a colleague who says exactly that (except she says two years). She has a medical condition which makes her much more likely than most of us to die if she catches Covid, and she feels she can have a pleasant life at home, and that it beats the hell out of being dead. She is exceptionally productive with really high-quality work, and seems quite happy too.

    It's one extreme of the personal choices that we're all making, and I don't think we can really judge each others' decisions, any more than the other extreme of someone going clubbing every night and accepting that they'll catch Covid at frequent intervals. We grow so attached to the way we live that it's hard to imagine living quite differently, but people do. Somehow the passion has gone out of the argument, now that it's basically being left up to us.
    The problem is most peoples perception of how much risk they are actually in is totally warped, especially with not only vaccines, but anti-virals and much improved covid treatments.

    Some people are clearly still scaring themselves to death and are never going to leave the house without worrying they are only a slip-up away from death, when it isn't true.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    SandraMc said:

    So I’m just over a quarter of the way into my trek to Figueres (9 miles in, 23 to go) and stopped for my first break. It feels a tad early to have my first beer of the day, but it’s the only drink I’ve got with me and the riverside seemed a nice place to sit down for a few minutes. I’ve been looking out for wildlife, but so far just seen a couple of burros.


    Liked the picture of the donkeys. We've been watching Stanley Tucci's TV series on Italian food on BBCiplayer. On his trip to Scicily (to be shown this Sunday), he samples in a local restaurant a steak tartare made from donkey meat. Although Stanley says it is delicious and sweet, I don't fancy it much myself.
    Not something I would want to tuccinto.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    James O'Brien very amusingly playing over and over the clip of Mad Nad being skewered at the Select Committee about Ch4 funding.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,684
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Edit: @Leon blathering on, quasi-religiously, about twitter.

    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    No because in both cases the information we know how to find is a tiny subset of all available information, and twitter is an incredible tool for finding relevant information. (If used correctly that is, if you use it wrong it's an incredible tool for creating an elaborate mental model consisting of complete bullshit.)
    This is supposed to be an endorsement of twitter?

    The point is that the definitive (if there is one) commentary on any given subject is overwhelmingly likely not to be found on Twitter. It is likely to be found in various articles, papers, newspapers, other accounts. If some of those are referenced on Twitter then you are back where you started vs Gary Google. Arguably worse because as everyone including you acknowledge it's easy to get yourself into a self-affirming death spiral on twitter.
    I'm not making any claim about whether Twitter is good for society or something, I'm saying it's an incredible tool for getting good information if used correctly. One of the things it can help with is finding which are the appropriate papers to read and getting some context to understand what they mean, which you wouldn't get from just googling. It's possible that it's collectively making the world dumber because most people use it wrong, I have no idea either way. If you don't know how to use it correctly and want to, see my explanation upthread.
    My conclusion from this thread is that many PB-ers are indeed using Twitter wrong

    You have to employ the search engine, and then you have to sift and filter, and follow the more promising threads quite deeply - but skeptically

    At the same time, your general stream has to be carefully curated: make sure you don't follow too many people. I have found around 400 is an ideal number, enough to keep the feed interesting, but not overwhelming, and you absolutely need a mix of all opinions; often you will get perceptive remarks from people way out left or right or Falun Gong or whatever. Expand and contract your roster of people-to-follow as the news changes

    And definitely ask direct questions of anyone you like, they will often reply, however lofty or distant they seem

    Do all that and it is is highly useful, despite the endless bile and lies
    I guess I just don't have the time or inclination to 'use twitter correctly'. I get my news from the radio and TV and shockingly from PB. Thats enough for me. I don't trust randoms on twitter, especially those in echo chambers. I like it here because there is challenge. Usually, if you post something wrong or stoopid, you get jumped on. You don't get blocked. You can see other peoples opinions, even if you think they are wrong. Twitter is not like that. Too much abuse and then blocking, Too many get blocked for challenging.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    I take it there's no major expansion.

    That is indeed bad news.

    i. It's the quickest form of energy generation, onshore wind can be put up in 6 months to a year iirc.
    ii. It's the cheapest at ~ 4p/kwh production, even with backup diesel it only goes to 5p or so.
    iii. It's green, not that I could really give a shit at this point - but it helps in the good old court of public opinion and all that.
    iv. No existential danger unlike nuclear.
    v. We've made loads of turbines so it's a very known tech.
    No expansion at all it seems.
    Tory NIMBYS on the prowl.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/05/boris-johnson-blows-cold-on-onshore-wind-faced-with-100-plus-rebel-mps
    Need all local elections on the same 4 year cycle then thr yearly nimby impact might lessen.
    Anybody that votes LibDem is banned from using the term "NIMBY" because, you know, the fucking hypocrisy....
    Language, Timothyyyyyyy...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,296
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back
    Last time round the head-to-head TV debate hurt her because Macron came across as more on top of his brief, but he'll have a much harder job now he has a record to defend.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back
    The turnout for the first round has traditionally been much much lower than the runoff and that makes this sort of speculation even harder.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915
    Fairy story?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,866
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    When are you going to convert the Bitcoin?
    Dunno. Nobody knows less about money and finance shit than me. I had to get the kid from the village that I pay to detail cars to set up the wallet for me.
    He's already stolen your bitcoin and invested it in monkeys.
    Monkeys? Not the ones in the zoo?
    A simplistic question, but I don't know the answer. If, as above, someone pays you in Bitcoin, is there any reason why the payer should not turn it first into the money that is universally recognised rather than the seller? And if they don't or won't why should a naive person like me trust the transaction?

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Edit: @Leon blathering on, quasi-religiously, about twitter.

    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    No because in both cases the information we know how to find is a tiny subset of all available information, and twitter is an incredible tool for finding relevant information. (If used correctly that is, if you use it wrong it's an incredible tool for creating an elaborate mental model consisting of complete bullshit.)
    This is supposed to be an endorsement of twitter?

    The point is that the definitive (if there is one) commentary on any given subject is overwhelmingly likely not to be found on Twitter. It is likely to be found in various articles, papers, newspapers, other accounts. If some of those are referenced on Twitter then you are back where you started vs Gary Google. Arguably worse because as everyone including you acknowledge it's easy to get yourself into a self-affirming death spiral on twitter.
    I'm not making any claim about whether Twitter is good for society or something, I'm saying it's an incredible tool for getting good information if used correctly. One of the things it can help with is finding which are the appropriate papers to read and getting some context to understand what they mean, which you wouldn't get from just googling. It's possible that it's collectively making the world dumber because most people use it wrong, I have no idea either way. If you don't know how to use it correctly and want to, see my explanation upthread.
    My conclusion from this thread is that many PB-ers are indeed using Twitter wrong

    You have to employ the search engine, and then you have to sift and filter, and follow the more promising threads quite deeply - but skeptically

    At the same time, your general stream has to be carefully curated: make sure you don't follow too many people. I have found around 400 is an ideal number, enough to keep the feed interesting, but not overwhelming, and you absolutely need a mix of all opinions; often you will get perceptive remarks from people way out left or right or Falun Gong or whatever. Expand and contract your roster of people-to-follow as the news changes

    And definitely ask direct questions of anyone you like, they will often reply, however lofty or distant they seem

    Do all that and it is is highly useful, despite the endless bile and lies
    I guess I just don't have the time or inclination to 'use twitter correctly'. I get my news from the radio and TV and shockingly from PB. Thats enough for me. I don't trust randoms on twitter, especially those in echo chambers. I like it here because there is challenge. Usually, if you post something wrong or stoopid, you get jumped on. You don't get blocked. You can see other peoples opinions, even if you think they are wrong. Twitter is not like that. Too much abuse and then blocking, Too many get blocked for challenging.
    Liked but wanted to say I liked. In particular PB part. And in fairness to @Leon I find out stuff because he and others use twitter.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965).

    Does the nature of the paper in the no 3 slot not give you the tiniest hint that Altemetric, whatever it is, is maybe not measuring anything useful? Try assessing things on the basis of what they actually are rather than where they appear on a fucking spreadsheet.

    danish masks=LOL
    It's not actually hard to discover what Altmetric actually is and why it was relevant to the conversation. There's probably even a tweet about it.

    An alternative is to read ALL the papers yourself and make a subjective judgement on their relative importance. Good luck if you want to try that.
    Yeah, we live in an age of information overload. one has to be selective, and researching altmetric didn't seem worth the time.

    I have now invested 3 minutes I won't get back googling it and confirming that it is a wanky and pretentious wannabe grown-up version of "trending on twitter." Which I already knew from the fact that it ranks a tedious political op ed about how awful Trump is "third in the medical and health sciences category."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    When are you going to convert the Bitcoin?
    Dunno. Nobody knows less about money and finance shit than me. I had to get the kid from the village that I pay to detail cars to set up the wallet for me.
    He's already stolen your bitcoin and invested it in monkeys.
    Monkeys? Not the ones in the zoo?
    A simplistic question, but I don't know the answer. If, as above, someone pays you in Bitcoin, is there any reason why the payer should not turn it first into the money that is universally recognised rather than the seller? And if they don't or won't why should a naive person like me trust the transaction?

    Well, that's two - no, three, given DA's original comment - admitting our ignorance on PB, all within the space of an hour. Must be a records. (And I'd still like to know re the primates; googling monkey is too unpredictable).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    It got an Altmetric score of 32931, and was the second-highest paper in 2020 in the medical and health sciences category (second only to "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2", which scored 36338; third was the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine calling for Trump to lose the election, which only got 24965).

    Does the nature of the paper in the no 3 slot not give you the tiniest hint that Altemetric, whatever it is, is maybe not measuring anything useful? Try assessing things on the basis of what they actually are rather than where they appear on a fucking spreadsheet.

    danish masks=LOL
    It's not actually hard to discover what Altmetric actually is and why it was relevant to the conversation. There's probably even a tweet about it.

    An alternative is to read ALL the papers yourself and make a subjective judgement on their relative importance. Good luck if you want to try that.
    Yeah, we live in an age of information overload. one has to be selective, and researching altmetric didn't seem worth the time.

    I have now invested 3 minutes I won't get back googling it and confirming that it is a wanky and pretentious wannabe grown-up version of "trending on twitter." Which I already knew from the fact that it ranks a tedious political op ed about how awful Trump is "third in the medical and health sciences category."
    Given his influence on US health policy, is that so surprising?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back

    Always worth remembering that Le Pen and RN have generally under-performed their polling in actual elections.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    Perhaps they believed it to be the only Ente in existence which has done 160mph on the M4 ?
    Don't know if he attends, but this might be up Dura Ace's street:

    "The 75th anniversary of the U.S. Air Force will be one of the highlights of EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2022, the 69th edition of EAA's annual fly-in convention coming July 25-31 at Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh."

    A friend went to it a few years ago, and somebody had fitted a jet engine into an American school bus. It went down the runway at 400 mph.... Stuff like that.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited April 2022
    TOPPING said:

    James O'Brien very amusingly playing over and over the clip of Mad Nad being skewered at the Select Committee about Ch4 funding.

    Good good. I really hope this hare-brained plan is seen off.

    Once more people know about how Channel 4 might really be brought back to its best, then we might really be getting somewhere.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,727
    edited April 2022
    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore, particularly in the North Sea, is much better in ALL respects.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022
    del.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,479

    ping said:

    Why privatise Channel 4? Just seems like ideological dogma to me

    Privatising the BBC/Channel 4 is one of the few issues that I’ve completely changed my mind over, over the last few years.

    I used to be completely against privatisation, now I don’t see what the problem is. I’m in favour of a smart state, flexible about moving things in and out of private/public ownership.

    Generally - If there’s a market, genuine competition and space for innovation, it should be private.

    Essential service &/or a natural monopoly? Public.

    I’d bring water, energy and trains into public ownership - and privatise the BBC/Channel 4.
    Not convinced about public ownership - the problem is that high capex unsexy activities such as investing in the electricity grid will always lose out to schools’n’hospitals if they are run by government.

    But there should be a creative alternative model to finance the investment - perhaps owned by a mutual or public sector pension funds for example.
    High capex unsexy activities don’t do great when reliant on private investment. Look at how water and energy companies have let infrastructure degrade.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,915
    edited April 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    On topic.

    French Electricity Prices have gone wild:




    That peak hour is €3 per kWh.

    The reason seems to be mass maintenance on ancient nuclear power stations.

    And a lot of central heating in France is direct electric.

    Potential impact in Election?

    https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/1510549520626692102

    That's not the retail price. Most French consumers are on Tarif Bleu which the government regulates and forces EdF to eat the cost. That's why electricity prices on Tarif Bleu only went up 4% this year.
    On this occasion there was an "Orange Alert", and official calls for reduced usage.



    And half of their nuclear power capacity was off, which resembles Germany's gas problem:

    https://twitter.com/fmomboisse/status/1510883898498113538
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Edit: @Leon blathering on, quasi-religiously, about twitter.

    You think all you need to know can be found on or via Twitter; others disagree, thinking that there is a vast resource out there not on Twitter. Your view of the totality of world knowledge is therefore a subset of theirs. Logically, they must know more than you about any given subject.
    No because in both cases the information we know how to find is a tiny subset of all available information, and twitter is an incredible tool for finding relevant information. (If used correctly that is, if you use it wrong it's an incredible tool for creating an elaborate mental model consisting of complete bullshit.)
    This is supposed to be an endorsement of twitter?

    The point is that the definitive (if there is one) commentary on any given subject is overwhelmingly likely not to be found on Twitter. It is likely to be found in various articles, papers, newspapers, other accounts. If some of those are referenced on Twitter then you are back where you started vs Gary Google. Arguably worse because as everyone including you acknowledge it's easy to get yourself into a self-affirming death spiral on twitter.
    I'm not making any claim about whether Twitter is good for society or something, I'm saying it's an incredible tool for getting good information if used correctly. One of the things it can help with is finding which are the appropriate papers to read and getting some context to understand what they mean, which you wouldn't get from just googling. It's possible that it's collectively making the world dumber because most people use it wrong, I have no idea either way. If you don't know how to use it correctly and want to, see my explanation upthread.
    My conclusion from this thread is that many PB-ers are indeed using Twitter wrong

    You have to employ the search engine, and then you have to sift and filter, and follow the more promising threads quite deeply - but skeptically

    At the same time, your general stream has to be carefully curated: make sure you don't follow too many people. I have found around 400 is an ideal number, enough to keep the feed interesting, but not overwhelming, and you absolutely need a mix of all opinions; often you will get perceptive remarks from people way out left or right or Falun Gong or whatever. Expand and contract your roster of people-to-follow as the news changes

    And definitely ask direct questions of anyone you like, they will often reply, however lofty or distant they seem

    Do all that and it is is highly useful, despite the endless bile and lies
    I guess I just don't have the time or inclination to 'use twitter correctly'. I get my news from the radio and TV and shockingly from PB. Thats enough for me. I don't trust randoms on twitter, especially those in echo chambers. I like it here because there is challenge. Usually, if you post something wrong or stoopid, you get jumped on. You don't get blocked. You can see other peoples opinions, even if you think they are wrong. Twitter is not like that. Too much abuse and then blocking, Too many get blocked for challenging.
    Liked but wanted to say I liked. In particular PB part. And in fairness to @Leon I find out stuff because he and others use twitter.
    That sounds like the right way to use Twitter.

    The only tweets I see are the ones linked to on PB.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back
    Pécresse has already shed most of the voters she’s going to re the more hard right of her original base . This means the current polling is mainly made up of more centre right voters , a clear majority will vote for Macron against Le Pen .

    Mélenchons current voters are split evenly between Macron and Le Pen , the 2nd round abstentions though if that falls are more likely to favour Macron going on past precedence .

    Le Pens key base are historically less likely to vote and she’s underperformed her polling in elections since 2017.

    For Macron his strongest voter group are the over 65s and these are much more likely to vote and older people are much less forgiving of Le Pens past .

    The key thing to look at is what the hard right are collectively polling and that’s not changed much over the last few weeks , around 33% to 35 % including some minor candidates .
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,133
    edited April 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    It is a ridiculous definition anyway, because every intentional murder intends to destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group "in part".

    Such a seismically important crime deserves much better.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore is much better in ALL respects.
    I know what you mean but

    1. it's a tiny fraction of the acreage

    2. Once we have got fusion cracked the turbines will go and the platforms will weather to invisibility

    3. Tracks provided they don't have heavy traffic on them are a comparatively mild eyesore, a boon to walkers and cyclists and actually protective of the peat by preventing people spreading out over it
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Carnyx said:

    I wonder whether the low SNP figure in the Survation Scottish subsample (yes, I know, I’ll probably be banned!) is showing the first signs of dissatisfaction among SNP voters? The ferry crisis has got through to Scots voters in the same way that partygate has got through to UK voters generally.
    The figure for Others seems to be high as well. SNP voters thinking about switching to Labour or Alba? The May elections will be interesting!
    There have been quite a few 6% scores for the SNP in recent polls - including the one just posted below. But subsamples and rounding ... about as useful for measuring as an elastic tapemeasure.
    The disasters are piling up though Carnyx, they really are a useless bunch, everything tehy touch turns to dust. The baby box is the only thing they have introduced since 2014 and the disasters too many to list here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    He is in the sense he thinks there is no such people and is trying to enforce that, but this move wont get traction.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,100

    That sounds like the right way to use Twitter.

    The only tweets I see are the ones linked to on PB.

    At that point it's a curated news source.

    Of the kind that the BBC and Channel 4 provide...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,776

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    Perhaps they believed it to be the only Ente in existence which has done 160mph on the M4 ?
    Don't know if he attends, but this might be up Dura Ace's street:

    "The 75th anniversary of the U.S. Air Force will be one of the highlights of EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2022, the 69th edition of EAA's annual fly-in convention coming July 25-31 at Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh."

    A friend went to it a few years ago, and somebody had fitted a jet engine into an American school bus. It went down the runway at 400 mph.... Stuff like that.
    You can get a 2CV up to about 110mph with a BMW R1200 engine swap but any faster than that and body panels start to come off.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Oh no. However will we survive without the government owning a platform for disseminating endless house porn that drives up property prices, Big Brother and Kardashian rip offs and multi decade old movies! 🙀

    Leon is spot on. Flog it now to some wally for a billion quid while there are still wallies daft enough to pay for it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022
    There are more police standing around watching the eco-fascists than the actual people blocking the road....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10687479/Just-Stop-Oil-glue-road-outside-oil-terminal-Warwickshire.html

    Given the tactics are pretty obvious, they lie down and some glue themselves to the road, you would have thought the plod would have formulated some sort of tactics to ensure their prompt removal and do so such they can't just get up and walk back to where they were.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore, particularly in the North Sea, is much better in ALL respects.
    The one at Invergarry is a disaster. Destroys the view from Creag Meagaidh and Kintail.

    I just can't not look at them. The movement or something. The only thing worse is industrial -scale forestry and completely unnecessary hydro (like Glen Etive) which produces less than a single off-shore turbine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,100
    moonshine said:

    Flog it now to some wally for a billion quid while there are still wallies daft enough to pay for it.

    One of those people who made billions selling useless PPE to the NHS via private links to senior Tories, perhaps...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,866
    edited April 2022

    TOPPING said:

    James O'Brien very amusingly playing over and over the clip of Mad Nad being skewered at the Select Committee about Ch4 funding.

    Good good. I really hope this hare-brained plan is seen off.

    Once more people know about how Channel 4 might really be brought back to its best, then we might really be getting somewhere.
    Just as the only reason I can currently think of for voting for Boris is that James O'Brien doesn't want me to, so I am beginning to support privatising C4. Is he the most annoying man in the world or are there other candidates in public life. (PBers don't count).

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195



    Pagel's feed is a dark place indeed. There are people on there who claim never to have left the house in 600+ days. I assumed they were spoofs. But with Twitter, one never knows.

    I have a colleague who says exactly that (except she says two years). She has a medical condition which makes her much more likely than most of us to die if she catches Covid, and she feels she can have a pleasant life at home, and that it beats the hell out of being dead. She is exceptionally productive with really high-quality work, and seems quite happy too.

    It's one extreme of the personal choices that we're all making, and I don't think we can really judge each others' decisions, any more than the other extreme of someone going clubbing every night and accepting that they'll catch Covid at frequent intervals. We grow so attached to the way we live that it's hard to imagine living quite differently, but people do. Somehow the passion has gone out of the argument, now that it's basically being left up to us.
    Personal choices? I thought you were a Socialist!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited April 2022
    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    It is a ridiculous definition anyway, because every intentional murder intends to destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group "in part".

    Such a seismically important crime deserves much better.
    It may be ridiculous, but as we signed up to it anyway we have to live with it and try to give it effect

    Yesterdays op ed in RIA Novosti calls for the killing of all Ukrainians who have taken up arms, plus the whole of the political elite. if that is government policy it seems to me a big enough part of the people to satisfy the definition
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,212

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    We have it from his own mouth that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people or Ukrainian state - and he has invaded their country and is killing, and forcibly deporting thousands to impose that view.
    I'd say that's a pretty strong prima facie case.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore is much better in ALL respects.
    I know what you mean but

    1. it's a tiny fraction of the acreage

    2. Once we have got fusion cracked the turbines will go and the platforms will weather to invisibility

    3. Tracks provided they don't have heavy traffic on them are a comparatively mild eyesore, a boon to walkers and cyclists and actually protective of the peat by preventing people spreading out over it
    My understanding was the tracks were a problem because of the huge weight of the turbines they need to support. Much more problematic than your standard estate landy track. They are also enormous (Monadhliath etc)

    The really ugly track is the one above Achnasheen, and that's just a small one!

    Cycling (particularly electric) on the Cairngorm plateau is going to be the next big controversy though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    On topic.

    French Electricity Prices have gone wild:




    That peak hour is €3 per kWh.

    The reason seems to be mass maintenance on ancient nuclear power stations.

    And a lot of central heating in France is direct electric.

    Potential impact in Election?

    https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/1510549520626692102

    That's not the retail price. Most French consumers are on Tarif Bleu which the government regulates and forces EdF to eat the cost. That's why electricity prices on Tarif Bleu only went up 4% this year.
    On this occasion there was an "Orange Alert", and official calls for reduced usage.



    And half of their nuclear power capacity was off, which resembles Germany's gas problem:

    https://twitter.com/fmomboisse/status/1510883898498113538
    France relies a little too much on nuclear - especially as the plants are all pretty much elderly. Germany relies too much on gas. We used to rely too much on coal (1974 miner's strike). What we need going forward is a good mix of power sources, even if they are not necessarily the cheapest. Particularly if the sources are under local control and do not require imports.

    That's why the answer isn't wind, or solar, or barrages, or nuclear, or gas: the answer is all of them.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    We have it from his own mouth that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people or Ukrainian state - and he has invaded their country and is killing, and forcibly deporting thousands to impose that view.
    I'd say that's a pretty strong prima facie case.
    I see the argument. But if we are invited to invade Russia on the back of it, the fact that it might meet the test for genocide is not convincing. Better to rely on the commission of war crimes.


  • Pagel's feed is a dark place indeed. There are people on there who claim never to have left the house in 600+ days. I assumed they were spoofs. But with Twitter, one never knows.

    I have a colleague who says exactly that (except she says two years). She has a medical condition which makes her much more likely than most of us to die if she catches Covid, and she feels she can have a pleasant life at home, and that it beats the hell out of being dead. She is exceptionally productive with really high-quality work, and seems quite happy too.

    It's one extreme of the personal choices that we're all making, and I don't think we can really judge each others' decisions, any more than the other extreme of someone going clubbing every night and accepting that they'll catch Covid at frequent intervals. We grow so attached to the way we live that it's hard to imagine living quite differently, but people do. Somehow the passion has gone out of the argument, now that it's basically being left up to us.
    The problem is most peoples perception of how much risk they are actually in is totally warped, especially with not only vaccines, but anti-virals and much improved covid treatments.

    Some people are clearly still scaring themselves to death and are never going to leave the house without worrying they are only a slip-up away from death, when it isn't true.
    I recall one of the first opinion polls when COVID broke 2 years ago. 8% replied that they thought they would die of COVID.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Some guy just came and bought my 2CV for EIGHTEEN FUCKING GRAND and paid in Bitcoin. I feel like I'm living in J.G. Ballard novel. These must be the end times.

    Perhaps they believed it to be the only Ente in existence which has done 160mph on the M4 ?
    Don't know if he attends, but this might be up Dura Ace's street:

    "The 75th anniversary of the U.S. Air Force will be one of the highlights of EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2022, the 69th edition of EAA's annual fly-in convention coming July 25-31 at Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh."

    A friend went to it a few years ago, and somebody had fitted a jet engine into an American school bus. It went down the runway at 400 mph.... Stuff like that.
    You can get a 2CV up to about 110mph with a BMW R1200 engine swap but any faster than that and body panels start to come off.
    You been to the event in Oshkosh? Sounds up your street.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,727
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore is much better in ALL respects.
    I know what you mean but

    1. it's a tiny fraction of the acreage

    2. Once we have got fusion cracked the turbines will go and the platforms will weather to invisibility

    3. Tracks provided they don't have heavy traffic on them are a comparatively mild eyesore, a boon to walkers and cyclists and actually protective of the peat by preventing people spreading out over it
    1. Each turbine may have a small base but they are often a visual eyesore for tens of miles around.

    2. The concrete pad won't be dug up and will still provide a water sink for the surrounding peat. It will permanently affect the hydrology.

    3. Nobody wants to walk on a 10m wide 'road' up to a 120m high turbine in what was open country. Worn paths through peat made by walkers are usually only apparent on popular routes which if they become bad enough are repaired by a 1m wide (at most) stone track laid on top.


    I wonder what Cyclefree would make of a power station on Black Combe - an "ideal" site for one if you are only interested in power. It won't happen because "Lake District" but move it across the Solway and...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Eabhal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore is much better in ALL respects.
    I know what you mean but

    1. it's a tiny fraction of the acreage

    2. Once we have got fusion cracked the turbines will go and the platforms will weather to invisibility

    3. Tracks provided they don't have heavy traffic on them are a comparatively mild eyesore, a boon to walkers and cyclists and actually protective of the peat by preventing people spreading out over it
    My understanding was the tracks were a problem because of the huge weight of the turbines they need to support. Much more problematic than your standard estate landy track. They are also enormous (Monadhliath etc)

    The really ugly track is the one above Achnasheen, and that's just a small one!

    Cycling (particularly electric) on the Cairngorm plateau is going to be the next big controversy though.
    Wave goodbye to the Ptarmigan of so.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    ·
    4m
    France, OpinionWay-Kéa Partners poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (-1)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15% (+1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9%
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 9%


    +/- vs. 1-4 April

    Fieldwork: 2-5 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,777

    Crunching these numbers

    Le Pen will presumably get all of Zemmour. Taking her to 32%. Maybe half of Pecresse? 37%?

    Macron will get the other half of Pecresse, taking him to 33%

    It's all about the Melenchon supporters. He is hard left so on one reading they virtually all go to Macron and Macron wins quite easily (but not a landslide). However he may be attracting people who just want to protest and will vote for anything anti-Establishment, possibly Le Pen. In which case she gets some of his voters and she wins, narrowly

    On Oddschecker Le Pen is now down to 5/1 from 14/1 a week back
    The turnout for the first round has traditionally been much much lower than the runoff and that makes this sort of speculation even harder.
    Is this true? Looks the other way around for 2017 to me.
    I agree with you Farooq. Last time Fillion and Melenchon scored high teens, they gave some voters to le pen, more to mscron, and, the bit that proves you right, a good chunk of their vote abstained second round.

    I reckon Macron has helped himself to the Fillion/pecrasse vote, or most he will likely get of it now less than half fillion got, early this time. One of the reasons why he is in trouble. A lot of abstentions may go to the anti establishment challenger (which I am still fully expecting to be Melenchon actually) for as Willian Glen said he is running on a record this time. The other difference from last time is Zemmour, not many of hits votes will go to macron, and they might well be very motivated to vote.

    I can’t see Macron getting within 10 of Melenchon or 5 of le pen in a second round.

    image

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022



    Pagel's feed is a dark place indeed. There are people on there who claim never to have left the house in 600+ days. I assumed they were spoofs. But with Twitter, one never knows.

    I have a colleague who says exactly that (except she says two years). She has a medical condition which makes her much more likely than most of us to die if she catches Covid, and she feels she can have a pleasant life at home, and that it beats the hell out of being dead. She is exceptionally productive with really high-quality work, and seems quite happy too.

    It's one extreme of the personal choices that we're all making, and I don't think we can really judge each others' decisions, any more than the other extreme of someone going clubbing every night and accepting that they'll catch Covid at frequent intervals. We grow so attached to the way we live that it's hard to imagine living quite differently, but people do. Somehow the passion has gone out of the argument, now that it's basically being left up to us.
    The problem is most peoples perception of how much risk they are actually in is totally warped, especially with not only vaccines, but anti-virals and much improved covid treatments.

    Some people are clearly still scaring themselves to death and are never going to leave the house without worrying they are only a slip-up away from death, when it isn't true.
    I recall one of the first opinion polls when COVID broke 2 years ago. 8% replied that they thought they would die of COVID.
    There has been all a number of polls and all consistently showed people have been way way out with their perception of the actual dangers.

    Now the vast majority of the public have moved on from this, trusting vaccines (and the fact they have had it), but there are still a minority who clearly worry themselves to death and some of the "heroes" of the zero covid movement keep pushing a misleading narrative e.g. the classic long COVID misinformation, by careful omission / twisting of exactly what long covid they are talking about.

    Again some people are convinced long covid = organ failures, life long disability, etc, when yes (especially before vaccines) there was this, but the vast bulk they are referring to are people stating they still don't feel 100% after 8-12 weeks, which isn't the same thing at all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    We have it from his own mouth that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people or Ukrainian state - and he has invaded their country and is killing, and forcibly deporting thousands to impose that view.
    I'd say that's a pretty strong prima facie case.
    One of the concerning things about this conflict is Russia's official line. From memory, in 2014 the Donbass conflict (and then Crimea), Russia were keen to say how limited their actions were. "Securing the rights or Russian-speaking people," or somesuch. There was not as much threat to the whole of Ukraine (*).

    Now, officials up to Putin are talking about a threat to other countries, e.g. Poland and the Baltics. This makes no sense to me, as it just encourages those countries to help Ukraine as much as they can.

    Likewise, this talk of their aims in Ukraine makes neighbouring countries more nervous, and more likely to fight - as the alternative of a Russian hegemony is now even worse.

    I can't see why their talk has been so aggressive to the entirety of eastern Europe. It actually harms their case internationally, and makes it easier for countries to support Ukraine. It's illogical - although I might be missing something obvious.

    (*) This is from memory. Might they have had plans to invade Ukraine eight years ago, if the separatists had taken over their areas without conflict? Or were they still hoping to corrupt Ukraine's political process in their favour?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Moving on: Zelensky to accuse Putin of genocide

    Genocide convention

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.


    Which probably entails an obligation to send troops in

    "[For the purpose of this Treaty] "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group..."

    Putin is not intent on destroying the Ukrainian people.
    We have it from his own mouth that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people or Ukrainian state - and he has invaded their country and is killing, and forcibly deporting thousands to impose that view.
    I'd say that's a pretty strong prima facie case.
    I see the argument. But if we are invited to invade Russia on the back of it, the fact that it might meet the test for genocide is not convincing. Better to rely on the commission of war crimes.
    We don't get to limit our obligations to what is reasonably safe and convenient for us, but to what we actually signed up to. The Rwandan genocide happened largely because the UN refused to recognise and declare that genocide was what it was.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022
    Any wonder young cricketers might be optimising for T20 rather than Test cricket...

    e.g. Phil Salt - £100,000 (for 6 weeks work).
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/live/cricket/60982426

    Be interesting to see if the Hundred manages to attract crowds this summer now being released from COVID restrictions aren't new and I presume the ECB / teams can't keep taking a massive bath on freebie tickets.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited April 2022
    'For all the kind of moral posturing that Hollywood has... I think all Hollywood's moral posturing are always commercial decisions and if they're moral, they're dressed up as moral but they are always bottomline decisions'

    'I think it's appalling arrogance. The epitome of all that is twisted and horrible about Hollywood.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10687251/Steve-Coogan-accuses-Smith-appalling-arrogance-slapping-Chris-Rock.html

    This is the same Steve Coogan who used to do masses of coke and hookers then phone up the News of the World demanding their spike every story reporting this appalling behaviour? And then when finally they said no we won't, we are going to print it, he went absolutely mental....becoming this huge advocate for ethical press behaviour.

    And a man who railed against the disgusting behaviour of everything Murdoch, then took a massive pay cheque to put Alan Partridge on Sky.

    Some might say that he is moral posturing over the moral posturing of Hollywood.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,727
    Eabhal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning. The news about onshore wind is profoundly depressing. It seems we will wean ourselves off foreign fossil fuels by doing, erm, pretty much the same as we have always done.

    We need a mix. Onshore wind is more easily maintained but the powered generation capacity is lower than offshore. We should build the tidal lagoons in South Wales and think about the Solway firth to have a time offset for tidal capacity. We should rapidly develop the micro nuclear capability and build the long term nuclear waste storage repository. Quite a few of these schemes would flow money into the north and help local economies and jobs there. Also look at offshore wind to power seawater cracking to make hydrogen. There’s lots we should do and start now.
    Onshore wind is way quicker and cheaper to build, though.
    The drastic political limitations on it in the UK are the efforts if Tory nimbies.

    Over two thirds of those polled on the issue support its expansion. A figure which might well now be even higher since energy prices rocketed.

    There is no such thing as rapid deployment of nuclear, and its costs are uncertain - but certainly not cheap.
    There are big long-term environmental issues with some onshore wind. They are best in upland areas, and large tracks are constructed across vast tracts of land to get the massive turbines up there. They're quite a scar, and massively more substantial than the tracks grouse shooters use.

    e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Farr,+Inverness+IV2+6XJ/@57.3293229,-4.1144983,2610m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x488f6e310a2a7cf3:0x7215bc78247500d2!8m2!3d57.372608!4d-4.192058

    We have a wind farm a few miles from us; and I have no problem with it as it is built on an old airfield site; essentially brownfield land. I do have issues with the farms on some of our precious upland landscapes, and especially on peat moorland.
    I readily confess to being a nimby… from our home we have uninterrupted views of the Forest of Bowland fells, the Yorkshire peaks, the Howgills and the Lakeland hills… @Cyclefree is just out of sight…. If we strain our eyes we can just see the wind farm by the M6 in Cumbra, the thought that the environments of the National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty should be damaged, marginally to supplement offshore just seems wrong….
    Indeed. This is a particular problem in Scotland and to some extent Mid-Wales, where whole landscapes are being ruined by the march of the turbines. And as pointed out, not just the wider landscape, but the peat on which many are sited. Once these are drained for the roads or the surface layer is broken through to site the massive concrete pedestals there's no way back.

    Most of the UK's best carbon sinks are not forests, they are bogs.

    The majority of the politicians making the decisions on turbines are urbanites and don't really care about such things, but some of us do.

    There's nothing more depressing than visiting what used to be a remote peak or corrie to find an array of turbines in front of you.

    I know we have almost no 'wild' land in the UK but we should be improving what we have, not making it worse.


    Offshore is much better in ALL respects.
    I know what you mean but

    1. it's a tiny fraction of the acreage

    2. Once we have got fusion cracked the turbines will go and the platforms will weather to invisibility

    3. Tracks provided they don't have heavy traffic on them are a comparatively mild eyesore, a boon to walkers and cyclists and actually protective of the peat by preventing people spreading out over it
    My understanding was the tracks were a problem because of the huge weight of the turbines they need to support. Much more problematic than your standard estate landy track. They are also enormous (Monadhliath etc)

    The really ugly track is the one above Achnasheen, and that's just a small one!

    Cycling (particularly electric) on the Cairngorm plateau is going to be the next big controversy though.
    Ha, yes.

    If you want to push a bike over the boulders in the Lairg Ghru then feel free, but eroding the very thin vegetation on the plateau seems like a bad idea.

    The Cairngorm / Macdui plateau is pretty bad already, but at least Braeriach and Ben Avon are relatively unharmed. If it becomes 'easy' on an electric bike it might be a problem, although it is a bit of a niche activity.

    Restricting free access to pedal power only would certainly discourage a large percentage of any problems.
This discussion has been closed.