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Starmer starts his third year as LOTO with positive approval ratings – politicalbetting.com

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    Quite unfairly this is playing very badly for Macron.

    I'd backed Le Pen in token amounts at 16-20 or so. This real chance that she could be President - amazing. (No betting bias - essentially no gains one way or the other)
  • Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me, notwithstanding an apology I made to him over a misunderstanding which to be fair he accepted, as did many of our fellow posters, but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    I suppose you cannot put old heads in young shoulders
    I guess you can't teach an old dog new tricks, or indeed how to laugh at anything funny
    You are not funny
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Omnium said:

    Quite unfairly this is playing very badly for Macron.

    I'd backed Le Pen in token amounts at 16-20 or so. This real chance that she could be President - amazing. (No betting bias - essentially no gains one way or the other)

    So is Le Pen's rise in the polls an anti-Macron or pro-Putin thing? Sure as hell hope it is not the latter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Quite unfairly this is playing very badly for Macron.

    I'd backed Le Pen in token amounts at 16-20 or so. This real chance that she could be President - amazing. (No betting bias - essentially no gains one way or the other)

    So is Le Pen's rise in the polls an anti-Macron or pro-Putin thing? Sure as hell hope it is not the latter.
    Anti establishment I guess.
  • Farooq said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Maybe to you
    She's not going to shag you mate is a common thing people say, I know you're 9000 years old but still
    Look, I've seen and said worse things, but for someone so hypersensitive about bullying as you seem to be it would be a good idea for you to shut the fuck up.
    I say, do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
    CHB, if you're like this when Labour get a 6-point lead, I shudder to think what you'll be like if they get a 14-point lead. Chill.
    Actually some of his comments tonight only let himself down and it is a shame
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    This is politicalbetting.com. There's a clue in the name.

    If anybody wants a copy of my betting history on this market them I'm more than happy to provide it.

    The point, Farooq, was that the pricing implied a real possibility for a radical swing in French politics.
    It really wan't clear whether you thought it was amazing because it's so high or because it's so low.
    Some understood it
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,353
    Andy_JS said:

    Updated Economist forecast: French presidential election.

    Macron 53% (-1%)
    Le Pen 47% (+1%)

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022

    MoE...maybe...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Cicero said:

    Lithuania has closed the Russian consulate in the port of Klaipeda and expelled the Russian Ambassador. They have also announced that they will not buy any further gas from Russia. Estonia and Latvia are switching to LNG, and refusing any Russian gas or oil supplies. Estonia has banned the ride hailing app Yandex and considering further sanctions imminently.

    The point is that it is not just the Baltic that is threatened by Russia, it is all of us. Putin has chosen war and it is going to come, whether you want it or not, unless Russia is comprehensively defeated in Ukraine now. Yes he will use chemical weapons again and quite possibly threaten nuclear too. So they did in the Cold War. If we want to remove the threat, we cannot ignore it, we must actively deter aggression as firmly as possible.

    So, over to you Western Europe.

    Don't hold your breath
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Farooq said:

    Currently in Hungary, the opposition is winning 16 of 18 constituency seats in Budapest, but only two outside the capital: one each in Pécs and Szeged.

    Which looks rather similar (rigging aside or included according to taste, etc.) to urban/suburban versus rural/exurban split in USA.

    When I was last in Budapest ... I was shocked at the overt and voluble expressions of discrimination & hatred against Roma that I encountered.

    It is somewhat sobering to realise that Budapest is a hot-bed of liberalism compared to the rest of the country.
    Was same when I was in Hungary in 1980s.

    Distinctly recall hearing stuff from the mouth of our Magyar instructor that would have shamed a KKK grand wizard . . . delivered in English with a perfect Oxbridge accent . . .
    I couldn't pretend I know whether it's worse in Hungary or not, but anti-Roma/Traveller racism is pretty rife in Aberdeenshire.
    Wee Dougie Ross not exactly covering himself in glory on the issue. Repeatedly, over years of multiple comments and actions.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    Wrapping up yesterday's elections, Viktor Orban's Fidesz alliance scored a convincing re-election victory winning 135 seats in the 199-member National Assembly, a gain of two.

    The opposition United for Hungary bloc lost ground losing six seats to end on 56 while the Our Homeland Movement entered the National Assembly with 7 seats and the German minority party won the final seat.

    Fidesz outpolled United for Hungary 53-35 even though most pre-election polls showed a much closer gap of generally 2-6 points. It seems United for Hungary did best in Budapest and some of the other towns but the rural areas were solidly for Orban.

    Those congratulating Orban included Marine le Pen, Vladimir Putin and Nigel Farage - there's an unholy trinity to keep you amused.

    In Serbia, Alexsandr Vucic comfortably won the Presidential election but his Together We Can Do Everything Coalition headed by the Serbian Progressive Party lost 60 seats in the National Assembly falling to 120 seats (43% of the vote) and losing its majority.

    United Serbia won 38 seats with 13.5% of the vote. The rather curious joint list of the Socialists, the Green Party and the confusingly named United Serbia (it's different in Serbo-Croat) won 32 seats on 11.5%. NADA (a coalition of the Democratic Party of Serbia and the Movement to Restore the Kingdom of Serbia) won 15 seats. The green Moramo Party won 12 seats while the far right Serbian Oathkeepers won 10 seats as well.

    I imagine Vucic will find it fairly easy to form a governing coalition and I'm sure he appreciated the congratulations of Vladimir Putin, Milos Zaman and Emmanuel Macron.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,769

    Farooq said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Maybe to you
    She's not going to shag you mate is a common thing people say, I know you're 9000 years old but still
    Look, I've seen and said worse things, but for someone so hypersensitive about bullying as you seem to be it would be a good idea for you to shut the fuck up.
    I say, do you kiss your mother with that mouth?
    CHB, if you're like this when Labour get a 6-point lead, I shudder to think what you'll be like if they get a 14-point lead. Chill.
    Survation had a 7-point lead last week!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Andy_JS said:

    Updated Economist forecast: French presidential election.

    Macron 53% (-1%)
    Le Pen 47% (+1%)

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022

    MoE...maybe...
    I’ve forgotten how close these hypotheticals were last time around. I have my doubts Le Pen would perform that well in any case.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Quite unfairly this is playing very badly for Macron.

    I'd backed Le Pen in token amounts at 16-20 or so. This real chance that she could be President - amazing. (No betting bias - essentially no gains one way or the other)

    So is Le Pen's rise in the polls an anti-Macron or pro-Putin thing? Sure as hell hope it is not the latter.
    could be neither, this is still just inside the Margin for errer. and who knows perhaps she has just had a slightly better interview on French TV than normal
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Farooq said:

    Currently in Hungary, the opposition is winning 16 of 18 constituency seats in Budapest, but only two outside the capital: one each in Pécs and Szeged.

    Which looks rather similar (rigging aside or included according to taste, etc.) to urban/suburban versus rural/exurban split in USA.

    When I was last in Budapest ... I was shocked at the overt and voluble expressions of discrimination & hatred against Roma that I encountered.

    It is somewhat sobering to realise that Budapest is a hot-bed of liberalism compared to the rest of the country.
    Was same when I was in Hungary in 1980s.

    Distinctly recall hearing stuff from the mouth of our Magyar instructor that would have shamed a KKK grand wizard . . . delivered in English with a perfect Oxbridge accent . . .
    I couldn't pretend I know whether it's worse in Hungary or not, but anti-Roma/Traveller racism is pretty rife in Aberdeenshire.
    Among Tories for sure
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited April 2022
    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9.5%
    Zemmour 9.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    Might have guessed you were a sandal wearing mung bean muncher
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    It seems I have a choice of two.

    Ms X (Plaid Cymru)
    Mr Y (Llafur)

    Ms X is the sitting Councillor, but seriously low wattage. Mr Y lives ~ 40 miles away, well outside the ward.

    Won't bother. But, probably won't bother in person by spoiling my vote.

    Ms X will win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    MaxPB said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):

    SNP: 45% (-3)
    LAB: 27% (+5)
    CON: 19% (-1)
    LDM: 6% (-1)

    Via @Survation, 24-28 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4 May 2021.

    Jesus Christ, is is over for the SNP?

    No. That's a good poll for Labour in any case.
    It’s clearly not “over” for any party polling ALMOST HALF the entire electorate

    And yet, and yet. The SNP stands for one thing, and this one thing sustains most of their polling. No one is supporting them because of their brilliant management of the Scottish ferry system or Scottish education, quite the opposite. The SNP are clearly shit at actual governing - and corrupt - but they are the party of indy, and that’s enough - for now

    FOR NOW

    It is becoming increasingly clear that there ain’t gonna be any indyref2 (until the 2030s?). The polls refuse to budge to YES, the world grows evermore hostile to risky political acts.

    What happens to the SNP when the flakier YESSERS think “OK no indy for a while, do I really love the SNP that much?”

    I can’t see them collapsing. They are, ironically, the new Scottish Labour. They have a vast and loyal voter base

    I can, however, see them gently deflating to more normal levels of support for a popular party. 35-40%?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me, notwithstanding an apology I made to him over a misunderstanding which to be fair he accepted, as did many of our fellow posters, but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    I suppose you cannot put old heads in young shoulders
    G , just spam it and move on , read the decent posts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088

    Roger said:

    OT. An intelligent look at perhaps the best American film ever made 'The Godfather'. Well worth a listen

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm

    Ha, I've already llistened to it. Twas good but got put off when the narrator guy said that the remade Ipcress File was one of his..
    Ah is that not good? Was just about to start it.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
    LOL, attacked by a dead sheep, you will have me crying soon.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 2022
    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):

    SNP: 45% (-3)
    LAB: 27% (+5)
    CON: 19% (-1)
    LDM: 6% (-1)

    Via @Survation, 24-28 Mar.
    Changes w/ 4 May 2021.

    Jesus Christ, is is over for the SNP?

    No. That's a good poll for Labour in any case.
    It’s clearly not “over” for any party polling ALMOST HALF the entire electorate

    And yet, and yet. The SNP stands for one thing, and this one thing sustains most of their polling. No one is supporting them because of their brilliant management of the Scottish ferry system or Scottish education, quite the opposite. The SNP are clearly shit at actual governing - and corrupt - but they are the party of indy, and that’s enough - for now

    FOR NOW

    It is becoming increasingly clear that there ain’t gonna be any indyref2 (until the 2030s?). The polls refuse to budge to YES, the world grows evermore hostile to risky political acts.

    What happens to the SNP when the flakier YESSERS think “OK no indy for a while, do I really love the SNP that much?”

    I can’t see them collapsing. They are, ironically, the new Scottish Labour. They have a vast and loyal voter base

    I can, however, see them gently deflating to more normal levels of support for a popular party. 35-40%?
    Now they are actually the old New Labour
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    It seems I have a choice of two.

    Ms X (Plaid Cymru)
    Mr Y (Llafur)

    Ms X is the sitting Councillor, but seriously low wattage. Mr Y lives ~ 40 miles away, well outside the ward.

    Won't bother. But, probably won't bother in person by spoiling my vote.

    Ms X will win.
    This is basic reason that USA voters can (usually) cast their votes for "write-in" candidates.

    Who occasionally even get elected. Late US Sen. Strom Thurmond (D>R-SC) was prime example, he was first elected to Senate as write-in. AND as the progressive option!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me, notwithstanding an apology I made to him over a misunderstanding which to be fair he accepted, as did many of our fellow posters, but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    I suppose you cannot put old heads in young shoulders
    read the decent posts.
    They are easy to spot people, my name is right above them!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,015
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    You forgot supervolcanoes, superbugs and meteorites.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    Remember when I said Le Pen was VALUE at 14/1? She is now 6/1

    Likewise when I said Macron was an absurd 1/33, he is now 1/10
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    You forgot supervolcanoes, superbugs and meteorites.
    And aliens

    Actually, aliens would be a pleasant surprise right about now. Maybe they are here to save us
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    Remember when I said Le Pen was VALUE at 14/1? She is now 6/1

    Likewise when I said Macron was an absurd 1/33, he is now 1/10
    Yes, Moonrabbit's analysis has been pretty good as well. I really can't read this campaign at all and I think OGH's comments on Russia hurting Le Pen were projection.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    It was exactly like this in 2017. In fact Le Pen had a bigger lead.

    Macron went on to win 66% to her 33%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    Some people have seen all this emerging for 3 decades: John Gray for instance - false dawn, written in 1997, was enormously insightful. The problem with Putin has always been there. The horrors of today have actually been going on in the Donbass for at least 8 years. Clearly dictators rely on violence and terror to exert authority. There's lots of other terrible stuff going on in the world when you start to sniff around.

    The good news, is that this will hopefully force people in to taking defence seriously. If you defund your army, you eventually get invaded like Ukraine. It really is as simple as that. You need to fund your military and make your defensive alliances work, because dickheads like Putin are always around.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    Remember when I said Le Pen was VALUE at 14/1? She is now 6/1

    Likewise when I said Macron was an absurd 1/33, he is now 1/10
    If Le Pen wins it'll be because of the way the Yellow Vest protesters were treated a few years ago. Some of them were blinded by the brutal tactics of the riot police, just because they were protesting about things like the price of fuel, etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    The problem for Labour and Starmer is their continual weak performance in the Midlands — both east and west.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    It was exactly like this in 2017. In fact Le Pen had a bigger lead.

    Macron went on to win 66% to her 33%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
    Wrong, the early April 2017 Harris runoff poll at that link had Macron on 62% and Le Pen on 38%.

    Today's Harris runoff poll has Macron on 51.5% and Le Pen on 48.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511034753490866184?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me [...] but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    Bloody hell talk about pot, kettle, black.

    You have mercilessly, cruelly and repeatedly ridiculed me and asked others to do the same.

    As a colleague of mine once remarked, those who dish out opprobrium are often the ones least able to take it themselves.

    I wish you peace but I do wish you would wish the same for me and others. Time to reflect on that maybe.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    Anbody would be better than the lying cheating no good clown in situ. I would vote for anybody against him, even though Starmer is crap.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922

    Yes, from the way @electionmapsuk was talking about this, I thought it would be a Tory lead.
    I did not see it anything but a Labour poll boost though the SNP at 3% is interesting
    The Scottish subsample was polled on a Calmac ferry.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    The problem for Labour and Starmer is their continual weak performance in the Midlands — both east and west.
    I don't know about the East Midlands, they should do better in places like Northampton, Loughborough, greater Nottingham, even Bolsover is still winnable based on last years local election results but not a cakewalk. I would also be surprised if they don't regain Lincoln and possibly Derby N.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
    LOL, attacked by a dead sheep, you will have me crying soon.
    And we used to get on.
  • Heathener said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me [...] but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    Bloody hell talk about pot, kettle, black.

    You have mercilessly, cruelly and repeatedly ridiculed me and asked others to do the same.

    As a colleague of mine once remarked, those who dish out opprobrium are often the ones least able to take it themselves.

    I wish you peace but I do wish you would wish the same for me and others. Time to reflect on that maybe.
    The way others have spoken to you and @HYUFD has been awful of late. You have only ever been pleasant when I've spoken to you.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    It was exactly like this in 2017. In fact Le Pen had a bigger lead.

    Macron went on to win 66% to her 33%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
    Wrong, the early April 2017 Harris runoff poll at that link had Macron on 62% and Le Pen on 38%.

    Today's Harris runoff poll has Macron on 51.5% and Le Pen on 48.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511034753490866184?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ
    Whoa fair enough but you are moving les postes de football mon cher ami.

    I was merely pointing out that prior to the run-offs the opinion polls had Le Pen ahead of Macron, as they do now.

    Let's wait and see if those two make the run off and we shall see what we shall see. I predict Macron to cruise home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    The problem for Labour and Starmer is their continual weak performance in the Midlands — both east and west.
    I don't know about the East Midlands, they should do better in places like Northampton, Loughborough, greater Nottingham, even Bolsover is still winnable based on last years local election results but not a cakewalk. I would also be surprised if they don't regain Lincoln and possibly Derby N.
    The Tories actually did better in the East Midlands than the South East in 2019.

    The West Midlands is still marginal but the East Midlands increasingly safe Tory
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    It was exactly like this in 2017. In fact Le Pen had a bigger lead.

    Macron went on to win 66% to her 33%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
    Wrong, the early April 2017 Harris runoff poll at that link had Macron on 62% and Le Pen on 38%.

    Today's Harris runoff poll has Macron on 51.5% and Le Pen on 48.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511034753490866184?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ
    Yes, I can’t remember any poll with Le Pen that close. But my mind has been on other things…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    Blocking was of Russian demand for Security Council meeting? Do you have source link?
    Sky news breaking
    Thanks Twitter bot
    What is wrong with you
    I know @CorrectHorseBattery has issues with me [...] but he seems he cannot lay it to rest as is evidenced in his rude and at times unnecessary responses to my genuine desire for sensible dialogue

    Bloody hell talk about pot, kettle, black.

    You have mercilessly, cruelly and repeatedly ridiculed me and asked others to do the same.

    As a colleague of mine once remarked, those who dish out opprobrium are often the ones least able to take it themselves.

    I wish you peace but I do wish you would wish the same for me and others. Time to reflect on that maybe.
    The way others have spoken to you and @HYUFD has been awful of late. You have only ever been pleasant when I've spoken to you.
    Thank you. Much appreciated.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    Some people have seen all this emerging for 3 decades: John Gray for instance - false dawn, written in 1997, was enormously insightful. The problem with Putin has always been there. The horrors of today have actually been going on in the Donbass for at least 8 years. Clearly dictators rely on violence and terror to exert authority. There's lots of other terrible stuff going on in the world when you start to sniff around.

    The good news, is that this will hopefully force people in to taking defence seriously. If you defund your army, you eventually get invaded like Ukraine. It really is as simple as that. You need to fund your military and make your defensive alliances work, because dickheads like Putin are always around.

    It's not just funding of the military. Russia spends over 4% of its GDP on its military. The US is slightly under 4%. We are around 2%. Ukraine just under 5%. It's just that Ukraine's economy is so much smaller than Russia's. There's no way Ukraine could match Russia's spending.

    If you start spending much more percentage GDP-wise on your military, then you risk becoming a martial state - which has its own issues and risks.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

    It's interesting that the UK spends a little less than Russia on our military in dollar terms, but our percentage of GDP spent on our military is much smaller.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,925
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    OT. An intelligent look at perhaps the best American film ever made 'The Godfather'. Well worth a listen

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm

    Ha, I've already llistened to it. Twas good but got put off when the narrator guy said that the remade Ipcress File was one of his..
    Ah is that not good? Was just about to start it.
    Well, tastes differ but I didn't get past epsode 1. Some period clobber, vehicles and pistolry do not necessarily a gripping watch make.
    Probably just a bit browned off with remakes of decent stuff cos we can't think of anything new ourselves.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    France Harris first round

    Macron 26.5%
    Le Pen 23.5%
    Melenchon 17%
    Pecresse 9%
    Zemmour 9%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511033662506213385?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ

    That's interesting. Today is probably the first day I seriously thought Le Pen could win. 17% is a also a high for Melenchon (although he got 19.6% in 2017) but him getting into the 2nd round seems a forlorn hope.
    It was exactly like this in 2017. In fact Le Pen had a bigger lead.

    Macron went on to win 66% to her 33%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
    Wrong, the early April 2017 Harris runoff poll at that link had Macron on 62% and Le Pen on 38%.

    Today's Harris runoff poll has Macron on 51.5% and Le Pen on 48.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511034753490866184?s=20&t=POmcTiu1ar9KmXrL2utDfQ
    Whoa fair enough but you are moving les postes de football mon cher ami.

    I was merely pointing out that prior to the run-offs the opinion polls had Le Pen ahead of Macron, as they do now.

    Let's wait and see if those two make the run off and we shall see what we shall see. I predict Macron to cruise home.
    They didn't or at least only on the first round polls.

    In the runoff polls Macron had a far bigger lead over Le Pen than he does now however
  • Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    Leaving aside the last sentence I think you may well be right.

    A serious leader for serious times might work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
    LOL, attacked by a dead sheep, you will have me crying soon.
    And we used to get on.
    Yes but you seem to have some beef with me nowadays
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    This was the bit BigG said:

    "Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know"

    And so on and on and on. Really nasty stuff at times.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    "Quintessential optimism" - lol

    You are SUCH a sucker.

    He's a con artist ffs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    (snip)
    Reminds me of a James Herbert book:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Domain-Rats-Trilogy-James-Herbert/dp/0330522086
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    You forgot supervolcanoes, superbugs and meteorites.
    And aliens

    Actually, aliens would be a pleasant surprise right about now. Maybe they are here to save us
    Maybe the aliens only turn up when a bunch of idiot hicks are about to blow themselves up with nukes and leave some reasonably prime real estate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194
    Alistair said:

    Scotland only poll alert


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1511018257561575427?t=eUk61BD6lmIBKDMMjxQINA&s=19

    Can @TheScreamingEagles adjudicate on how much of a pounding Dougie Ross's Conservatives are taking from SLab

    Do they have hookers at Aberdeen docks?
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    Leaving aside the last sentence I think you may well be right.

    A serious leader for serious times might work.
    If the question is "pain or pleasure?", pleasure (Boris) has a chance.

    If the question is "how do we distribute and soothe the pain?", who would you trust? Boris or Sir Keir?
  • ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.

    I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.

    Things could not be more different today compared with 1992-97. Just look at what inflation was like back then...

    It's an irony that the Conservatives in 1997 bequeathed to Labour a country in rude economic health and yet the tories took a hammering. But if you look at the polls carefully you can clearly see that Black Wednesday and Britain's exit from the ERM busted the Conservatives: the terrible events of that day when interest rates briefly went over 20% meant that the Conservatives were no longer trusted on the economy.

    2022. Snap.

    They're finished.
    I disagree - and I really hope Labour don't get complacent, as they often were in 2010-15.

    The causes of the Conservative's malaise in 92-97 were different. Black Wednesday was a totally self-inflicted mess. Sleaze seems less of an issue now. The problems facing the country are mostly external: higher fuel prices caused by the war; food prices by the war; and Covid on top.

    Only Brexit was in our hands, and I don't see that as being a major cause of our problems.

    In addition, some of the energy price increase can be put down to the cost of green policies, which the public are in favour of.

    IMV external effects are less of a government than internal ones.
    There I disagree. Sleaze is a major and ongoing issue now. Boris Johnson has in effect just become the first PM to be found guilty of a crime while in office - literally, in his own back garden. Even if he's never fined because the Met are even more cowardly and corrupt than the government, that's big. Compared to Cash for Questions, it's huuuge.

    It may currently have slightly less public cut through, which is not the same thing.
    This will be the thing that does it for the Tories IMHO. I think there is deep damage to their reputation in the heartlands.

    Labour will win because Tories stay home. And Starmer will offer something that pisses very few people off.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    This was the bit BigG said:

    "Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know"

    And so on and on and on. Really nasty stuff at times.
    Oh come along - you're a bit nuts. The best of us after all!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Top attractions the airport and the clock tower, make sure you check them out.

    https://www.getyourguide.co.uk/izmir-l1082/viewing-points-tc238/

    Do they do gravy/curry and chips down along the front?
    It does feel like a rundown Sunderland on the Aegean

    I can’t wait for the sun to go down so I don’t have to look at it
    Did you take the opportunity of your time in Izmir for a day trip to Cesme? Much nicer.
    Close to Foca....I shot a Timotei ad there where the Turkish product manager was called Ufuk. The Turkish clients and crew couldn't see the funny side
  • I hope @MrEd hasn't been driven off here too, another one who people have been just horrible to.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    Get a grip
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    "Quintessential optimism" - lol

    You are SUCH a sucker.

    He's a con artist ffs.
    Boris is now on his THIRD wife and creating his umpteenth family. If that isn’t “quintessential optimism” I don’t know what is
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
    Not quite as satisfying, but a close second. I'll probably take this advice.
  • malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    Get a grip
    How are you @malcolmg ?
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    "Quintessential optimism" - lol

    You are SUCH a sucker.

    He's a con artist ffs.
    Boris is now on his THIRD wife and creating his umpteenth family. If that isn’t “quintessential optimism” I don’t know what is
    And probably shagging another woman too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    “overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.”

    By some measures, Ed Sheeran is the most popular solo musician on the planet. I rest my case
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Was briefly Greek under the Treaty of Sevres, 1920, until the Turks drove them out in 1922.
    Was longly Greek 688-133BC, as Smyrna. Zero remains though.
    A lot of the local population are actually still of Ionian Greek origin, but long since converted to Islam, and not likely to respond well to questions on the whys and wherefores of their Greek origin. It was the Ionian heartland, like Chios opposite.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    Get a grip
    How are you @malcolmg ?
    I am extremely well thank you. Cool calm and collected.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,463
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share

    Quick! Activate the what about filter!
    Actually Big G and HY are right. The combination is 55, a little higher than the new normal, yet with Tories on healthy mid term 36, 39 with reform, this poll is still the same ship as the +2 lead ships only with a different lay out of deck chairs.

    Is this poll off topic. Starmer struggling when header written.
    Well done! You've painted a 6 point Labour lead as a good poll for the Conservatives and a bad one for Starmer. Hat tip!
    Yes, finding a tiny photon of sunshine for the Conservatives is what MR often does, which is very much in keeping with her being a [checks notes] Liberal Democrat :wink:
    I don’t agree with you Farooq! I’m calling it straight without a Tory or Labour bias most people here seem to have and argue to silly lengths. 36% mid term before swing back and a dog whistle election campaign isn’t a bad poll for the Tories. You seriously saying it is? If they dropped, and it was a 32-40 poll, I would call it a good poll for Labour. Why? When Blair got Landslides the Tories still polled in the thirties, 32 ish. When Brown barely got 30% he got 260 seats, thanks to incumbency bonus I suspect.

    I do and often express Libdem bias, but there’s not much to be bias about until 🤞the local election results. I’m just resigned to low Libdem polling now hoping Mike is right and it’s hard to nationally poll a party with strong patches of support.

    Who would I prefer between Boris and Starmer if polled? DK. Who would I prefer between Labour and a proper Conservative leader, not populist dog whistle clap trap but proper fiscal conservative with a sensible Conservative plan, if polled, probably the Conservative. Can I be more honest or clear to you than that?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    Thanks for that brilliant post.

    The media love bad news - as bad news sells. Yet modern communications means that the news is at our fingertips whenever we want it. Therefore we see images of the war in Ukraine almost as soon as they happen, whereas fifty yeas ago they would have been delayed days, and have been in much smaller quantities.

    Yes, there are worries. But there is also much to be optimistic about.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    err since 1945?


    Are you forgetting the conservative government form 1951-1964? 13 years?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    Thanks for that brilliant post.

    The media love bad news - as bad news sells. Yet modern communications means that the news is at our fingertips whenever we want it. Therefore we see images of the war in Ukraine almost as soon as they happen, whereas fifty yeas ago they would have been delayed days, and have been in much smaller quantities.

    Yes, there are worries. But there is also much to be optimistic about.
    If I was Big and Rich I'd be more optimstic too, in fairness.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    Get a grip
    How are you @malcolmg ?
    I am extremely well thank you. Cool calm and collected.
    Glad to hear it. Best wishes to you and family.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
    Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    edited April 2022
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    Bravo Rich. It’s nice to see someone not endlessly doomscrolling and doom predicting. Personally I blame 24 news coverage. More news is never good news. Thirty years ago we didn’t get to hear the news from everywhere, instantly, at 6 pm. Now we do. It’s led to a sense of things getting worse, especially in climate terms. There is no increase in the number of hurricanes each year for instance, yet most people think there is. If you see it every time one occurs, and not just see it, but have live reportage, it feels worse.

    Edit - I see JJ made the same point.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.

    Well ... will it though?

    That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/

    I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.

    The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
    The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.

    I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?

    Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
    Good morning

    Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know

    Here you go again. Incapable of addressing the points so you attack me personally.

    It really says an awful lot about you.
    Here's a post when Big G next plays the victim, total hypocrite.
    Get a grip
    How are you @malcolmg ?
    I am extremely well thank you. Cool calm and collected.
    Glad to hear it. Best wishes to you and family.
    The very same to you and your family.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Was briefly Greek under the Treaty of Sevres, 1920, until the Turks drove them out in 1922.
    Was longly Greek 688-133BC, as Smyrna. Zero remains though.
    A lot of the local population is actually still of Ionian Greek origin, but long since converted to Islam, and not likely to respond well to questions on the whys and wherefores of their Greek origin. It was the Ionian heartland, like Chios opposite.
    Today i learned about Afro-Turks (having seen some black people on my plane into Izmir, speaking pure Turkish, which made me confused). They mainly live in Izmir, and predominantly descend from the Ottoman slave trade


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Turks

    This is what’s so frustrating about Izmir. It has a magnificently plural history (for good or bad) but it looks like a notably poorer part of West Bromwich (apart from the sea)

    I am determined to find better things tomorrow. There are said to be brilliant remnants of this 5000 year history, if you look REALLY HARD
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
    Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
    think an arse would be more appropriate
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,262
    Current polls would have Labour a about 20 short of a majority according to electoral calculus... Mike is very wrong to say miniscule chance...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
    Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
    That's (one reason) why I suggested drawing lots of them, so at the least the vote is invalidated for casting too many votes even if all penises are in a box.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
    LOL, attacked by a dead sheep, you will have me crying soon.
    And we used to get on.
    Yes but you seem to have some beef with me nowadays
    I've no idea how the friction occured. I guess we're both prickly. There's no beef, just a hope for smiles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Was briefly Greek under the Treaty of Sevres, 1920, until the Turks drove them out in 1922.
    Was longly Greek 688-133BC, as Smyrna. Zero remains though.
    A lot of the local population is actually still of Ionian Greek origin, but long since converted to Islam, and not likely to respond well to questions on the whys and wherefores of their Greek origin. It was the Ionian heartland, like Chios opposite.
    Today i learned about Afro-Turks (having seen some black people on my plane into Izmir, speaking pure Turkish, which made me confused). They mainly live in Izmir, and predominantly descend from the Ottoman slave trade


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Turks

    This is what’s so frustrating about Izmir. It has a magnificently plural history (for good or bad) but it looks like a notably poorer part of West Bromwich (apart from the sea)

    I am determined to find better things tomorrow.
    The airport?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Leon said:


    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked

    Having worked for 20 years to get to the top job, Boris Johnson might have some justification for railing at the fates for dealing him such a crap hand - it all seemed so easy in December 2019. Get Brexit done, then his own version of neo-Thatcherism and the 20s could have been one long party.

    Instead, he's faced more storms than a seafarer trying to sail round Antarctica and everything has turned to, well, not very niceness.

    Yet he still has those willing to bat for him or die in the ditch with him. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make leader of the Conservative Party, perhaps.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Was briefly Greek under the Treaty of Sevres, 1920, until the Turks drove them out in 1922.
    Was longly Greek 688-133BC, as Smyrna. Zero remains though.
    A lot of the local population is actually still of Ionian Greek origin, but long since converted to Islam, and not likely to respond well to questions on the whys and wherefores of their Greek origin. It was the Ionian heartland, like Chios opposite.
    Today i learned about Afro-Turks (having seen some black people on my plane into Izmir, speaking pure Turkish, which made me confused). They mainly live in Izmir, and predominantly descend from the Ottoman slave trade


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Turks

    This is what’s so frustrating about Izmir. It has a magnificently plural history (for good or bad) but it looks like a notably poorer part of West Bromwich (apart from the sea)

    I am determined to find better things tomorrow. There are said to be brilliant remnants of this 5000 year history, if you look REALLY HARD
    A lot of the city was burnt down at the end of the Greco-Turkish war. The Greeks had quite a lot of cultural institutions there and a more educated population than some other parts of the diaspora, and have never really got over the loss. Here it is before ;

    https://mediterraneanpalimpsest.wordpress.com/2012/03/12/smyrna-the-destruction-of-a-cosmopolitan-city-1900-1922/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sergei Lavrov announces he will hold a news conference after his request for a UN meeting over Bucha was blocked by Britain

    Excellent move by Liz Truss

    She's not going to shag you mate
    You really are off the scale and need to tone down your comments
    Jesus, grow a sense of humour, it's a common joke
    Coarse and unnecessary
    MalcolmG in a nutshell.
    LOL, attacked by a dead sheep, you will have me crying soon.
    And we used to get on.
    Yes but you seem to have some beef with me nowadays
    I've no idea how the friction occured. I guess we're both prickly. There's no beef, just a hope for smiles.
    Then a truce shall be called immediately and no more rancour allowed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.

    Right now it feels like this:
    1. Lib Dem
    2. SNP
    3. Labour
    4. Green
    5. random independent nutters
    6. {Conservative/Alba}
    7. {Conservative/Alba}
    8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories

    Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.

    Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
    I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
    I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.

    Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
    Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
    A more crudely named vagina doubles up as the same trick, though, so don't fall for either. Or something.
  • The Government has confirmed that it is to go ahead with the sale of Channel 4.

    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1511045316052668416

    The Government has really got the priorities in order
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,925

    Alistair said:

    Scotland only poll alert


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1511018257561575427?t=eUk61BD6lmIBKDMMjxQINA&s=19

    Can @TheScreamingEagles adjudicate on how much of a pounding Dougie Ross's Conservatives are taking from SLab

    Do they have hookers at Aberdeen docks?
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.

    1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years

    1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years

    Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years

    In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).


    In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%

    In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%


    It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).

    So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.

    The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.

    * I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith.
    * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.

    So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.




    (Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).

    Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working

    Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive

    Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated

    God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
    Leaving aside the last sentence I think you may well be right.

    A serious leader for serious times might work.
    If the question is "pain or pleasure?", pleasure (Boris) has a chance.

    If the question is "how do we distribute and soothe the pain?", who would you trust? Boris or Sir Keir?
    'Do they have hookers at Aberdeen docks?'

    Is Boris Kryptonite north of Gretna? Does Liz Truss insert images of herself onto social media at every opportunity?

    Pocra Quay used to be oldest profession central for any PBer planning a fact finding visit, but as with other areas of industry in Aberdeen may now be sadly reduced.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Roger said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Top attractions the airport and the clock tower, make sure you check them out.

    https://www.getyourguide.co.uk/izmir-l1082/viewing-points-tc238/

    Do they do gravy/curry and chips down along the front?
    It does feel like a rundown Sunderland on the Aegean

    I can’t wait for the sun to go down so I don’t have to look at it
    Did you take the opportunity of your time in Izmir for a day trip to Cesme? Much nicer.
    Close to Foca....I shot a Timotei ad there where the Turkish product manager was called Ufuk. The Turkish clients and crew couldn't see the funny side
    Reminds me of a certain famous Turkish ambassador ...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    This evening's French Presidential polling continues the theme of a closing gap between Macron and Marine Le Pen. One run off has the gap to just three points though in the context of a first round gap of three and a half points it shows Le Pen has to be almost level with Macron at the end of Round 1 to have a realistic chance in the run off.

    Melenchon continues to poll strongly and up to 17% yet still down on his 2017 numbers as is every candidate other than Macron and Le Pen.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    The Government has confirmed that it is to go ahead with the sale of Channel 4.

    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1511045316052668416

    The Government has really got the priorities in order

    Best news I've heard for a long time, thanks for sharing.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    “overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.”

    By some measures, Ed Sheeran is the most popular solo musician on the planet. I rest my case
    By other measures/claims, he is a good 'repurposer'.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source

    Yes but we are not at war ourselves, even if our sympathies go out to the Ukrainians.

    Most UK general elections had a war going on somewhere else in the world at the same time
    The multiple crises we face - as a nation, a continent, a world, a species - are orders of magnitude worse than anything we have known for many decades.

    A malignant and rising Chinese superpower, Russia genocidal and rampant in Eastern Europe, the real threat of nuclear war on top of actual war, the worst global plague in a century (still going, still hurting), a looming worldwide economic meltdown, multiple refugee horrors, and the prospect of Famine

    And, on top of all that, apocalyptic climate change?

    This is worse than any set of circumstances since World War Two. Arguably, with climate change, it is worse than THAT
    on the other hand:

    The climate is worming mush more slowly than predicted 10, 20, or ethne 30 years ago. and technology including eclectic cares, to small nuclear reactors are coming on stream.

    Absolutes poverty is falling very rapidly, at the tern of the millennium about 30% of the people in the would lived on less than 1 doler a day (at 1990 prices) today the equivalent finger is about 10% and falling, with it access to clean water and electricity are rising fast, I forget the exact numen's but something like 250,000 people leave poverty every day and 300,000 get electricity in there house every day.

    We have had a pandemic, it was bad, but we have created a vaccine in record time, and produced and distributed it, at a rate that no other generation could have imaged.

    The War in Ukraine is horrible, but it looks like the good side have just won a victory, and at least according to UK numbers of total wars, and civil wars, this has been the least war decade ever. hopefully china and other nations are looking at Ukraine and thinking, lets not get ourselves in Putin's position.

    And we as a speciose are acceding lots of new firsts like building rockets to take us to Mars.

    Its very easy to look at the news and be depressed, but overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.
    “overall things are still good, this is the best time to be alive in human history and things are getting even better.”

    By some measures, Ed Sheeran is the most popular solo musician on the planet. I rest my case
    Warming is going much, much faster than predicted 20 years ago. The minimum we can hope to achieve is creeping steadily upwards. I never expected high Dartmoor to be virtually frost free in my lifetime, but it is.

    Decline in absolute poverty is great but means more pressure on resources and more carbon.

    We created the pandemic and haven't yet fixed it

    We have had Trump in WH and Johnson in no 10

    We hoped WW2 was a never again event for Europe at least

    What is the point of going to Mars?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,084

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Was briefly Greek under the Treaty of Sevres, 1920, until the Turks drove them out in 1922.
    Was longly Greek 688-133BC, as Smyrna. Zero remains though.
    A lot of the local population is actually still of Ionian Greek origin, but long since converted to Islam, and not likely to respond well to questions on the whys and wherefores of their Greek origin. It was the Ionian heartland, like Chios opposite.
    Today i learned about Afro-Turks (having seen some black people on my plane into Izmir, speaking pure Turkish, which made me confused). They mainly live in Izmir, and predominantly descend from the Ottoman slave trade


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Turks

    This is what’s so frustrating about Izmir. It has a magnificently plural history (for good or bad) but it looks like a notably poorer part of West Bromwich (apart from the sea)

    I am determined to find better things tomorrow. There are said to be brilliant remnants of this 5000 year history, if you look REALLY HARD
    A lot of the city was burnt down at the end of the Greco-Turkish war. The Greeks had quite a lot of cultural institutions there and a more educated population than some other parts of the diaspora, and have never really got over the loss. Here it is before ;

    https://mediterraneanpalimpsest.wordpress.com/2012/03/12/smyrna-the-destruction-of-a-cosmopolitan-city-1900-1922/
    Ah, that’s fascinating. So it was the Mariupol of its time

    Too many of the marvellous cities of the Hellenic world were quite recently destroyed. Thessaloniki (Salonica) is another example: devastated by fire and war and ethnic strife. Sounds almost identical to Izmir, tho Izmir has suffered more grievously and is now much uglier

This discussion has been closed.