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Starmer starts his third year as LOTO with positive approval ratings – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I never installed it - when it came out I was usuing an old phone that couldn't handle any more apps, and when I got a new phone I never thought I needed to. Why would I? It wasn't compulsory and no good could come from having it. I still occasionally see the QR codes in restaurants and the like, but haven't seen anyone scan one for at least a year, I would think.
    Nick is literally the only person I have heard of who still uses it. I'm serious. And Nick is A Bloke On The Internet (although admittedly a real person who is also A Bloke In Real Life).

    It sounds like it hasn't been updated for several decades. One for the bin Mr Palmer!
    (without wanting to insult Nick), he does come across as rather atypical in many respects e.g. the can't cook / won't cook / little enjoyment surrounding food.
    My father-in-law is like that. A highly idiosyncratic man in many ways. For work reasons, he has spent most of the time I have known him living three hours from 'home'. Never bothered to learn to cook - for the first six years he lived away, the only food he would eat was cod and chips from the local chippy. This was his diet roughly 49 days out of 50. One meal a day. Surprisingly, he is still alive.

    He got to know the owners of the chippy quite well, obviously. Ended up writing a letter on their behalf to the home office for some immigration-related reason. They never knew his name, though - they referred to him as 'Mr. Tottenham Hotspur' after his favourite conversation topic. Then one day he moved. I often wonder if they wonder what happened to him.

    That is basically my diet. Food of the gods. No fan of Spurs though. Occasionally I wonder about a Michelin-starred night out but reading the menus invariably puts me off.
    Fish and chips is a great meal, I agree. I wouldn't go for it every night, but it's a treat.
    I've never dabbled with Michelin stars, but very occasionally I've had what I consider an expensive meal out. In the £40pp and upwards bracket. Sometimes it's been good, sometimes it's been really good. But it's never been eight times better than a £5 chippy tea.
    Hmm. You need to get out more.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    One of those thought-substitute clichés, that. You want to explain what work the phrase is doing?
    It makes it look like we're the bad guys, whereas in reality even if we cut our emissions to zero overnight it would be very few years before China and India's increases would outweigh that.
    Right oh. Do you shoplift from supermarkets on the basis that It's an entirely invisible fraction of their turnover?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,611
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    If my arm was twisted I'd lay, Just. I think he's nailed on, but there may be moments in the betting market where he trades at something like 1.33.

    At current prices I think there's no bet. I'm flattish.
    I'm long LePen at 10s. Will be laying back at (say) 4 after R1 when it starts to look as if it's going to be quite close and then I'll lump on Macron since I do think he'll be reelected.

    The best laid plans of mice and men ...
    It's a very interesting election; Macron has basically chosen not to campaign, as it is beneath him in his role as President.

    Whether this strategy works or not is another matter altogether.
    He held a massive rally at the weekend, but people in the crowd started chanting "Macron resign".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,371
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    I know Zelenskyy is an actor. But my god. His face here, and this whole thread:


    Ukrainian President
    @ZelenskyyUa
    has visited the town of Bucha today, where #BuchaMassacre by Russian army took place. His face says a lot. Just think about it: this president came to power with a promise of peace with Russia, he was ready to "talk to Putin" and sign a compromise


    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1511003203776794625?s=20&t=TarxjZmue8IeI9OxN7wHlg

    "Zelensky was a Russian-speaking person, could not speak Ukrainian amid his presidential campaign."

    This better not give any Frenchmen ideas about running for UK PM should they find themselves at a loose end in a few months time....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,290
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    I know Zelenskyy is an actor. But my god. His face here, and this whole thread:


    Ukrainian President
    @ZelenskyyUa
    has visited the town of Bucha today, where #BuchaMassacre by Russian army took place. His face says a lot. Just think about it: this president came to power with a promise of peace with Russia, he was ready to "talk to Putin" and sign a compromise


    https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1511003203776794625?s=20&t=TarxjZmue8IeI9OxN7wHlg

    He's mostly a President and he's seeing his country destroyed. He's not acting nor thinking about doing so. (And I don't think you were suggesting that anyway)
    No, I think his expression is sincere, and he has stared into the abyss of evil
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I never installed it - when it came out I was usuing an old phone that couldn't handle any more apps, and when I got a new phone I never thought I needed to. Why would I? It wasn't compulsory and no good could come from having it. I still occasionally see the QR codes in restaurants and the like, but haven't seen anyone scan one for at least a year, I would think.
    Nick is literally the only person I have heard of who still uses it. I'm serious. And Nick is A Bloke On The Internet (although admittedly a real person who is also A Bloke In Real Life).

    It sounds like it hasn't been updated for several decades. One for the bin Mr Palmer!
    (without wanting to insult Nick), he does come across as rather atypical in many respects e.g. the can't cook / won't cook / little enjoyment surrounding food.
    My father-in-law is like that. A highly idiosyncratic man in many ways. For work reasons, he has spent most of the time I have known him living three hours from 'home'. Never bothered to learn to cook - for the first six years he lived away, the only food he would eat was cod and chips from the local chippy. This was his diet roughly 49 days out of 50. One meal a day. Surprisingly, he is still alive.

    He got to know the owners of the chippy quite well, obviously. Ended up writing a letter on their behalf to the home office for some immigration-related reason. They never knew his name, though - they referred to him as 'Mr. Tottenham Hotspur' after his favourite conversation topic. Then one day he moved. I often wonder if they wonder what happened to him.

    That is basically my diet. Food of the gods. No fan of Spurs though. Occasionally I wonder about a Michelin-starred night out but reading the menus invariably puts me off.
    Food is the focus of my life. I love it. I love cooking also. And I really love Michelin star food. To be savoured. Last * meal was Sorrels in Dorking a couple of months ago.
    27 in Kingsbridge, south Devon is a delight. Jamie is worthy of a Michelin star or two. He does many things very well, but is a wizard with beef.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    One of those thought-substitute clichés, that. You want to explain what work the phrase is doing?
    It makes it look like we're the bad guys, whereas in reality even if we cut our emissions to zero overnight it would be very few years before China and India's increases would outweigh that.
    Right oh. Do you shoplift from supermarkets on the basis that It's an entirely invisible fraction of their turnover?
    OK, I'm done with feeding this particular troll.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,202

    Shin splints are killing my running right now :(

    Get that rest & do the calf stretches / strengthening work. Lots of rest in my experience sadly...

    Best of luck for a speedy recovery.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    Cicero said:

    Lithuania has closed the Russian consulate in the port of Klaipeda and expelled the Russian Ambassador. They have also announced that they will not buy any further gas from Russia. Estonia and Latvia are switching to LNG, and refusing any Russian gas or oil supplies. Estonia has banned the ride hailing app Yandex and considering further sanctions imminently.

    The point is that it is not just the Baltic that is threatened by Russia, it is all of us. Putin has chosen war and it is going to come, whether you want it or not, unless Russia is comprehensively defeated in Ukraine now. Yes he will use chemical weapons again and quite possibly threaten nuclear too. So they did in the Cold War. If we want to remove the threat, we cannot ignore it, we must actively deter aggression as firmly as possible.

    So, over to you Western Europe.

    I find the differing attitudes of Eastern and Western Europe interesting, though not surprising. Obviously those who have lived under the Russian yoke in the past are rather more clear eyed over the way Russia behaves.

    It reminds me of a trip to Prague back in the noughties. I went to the (I think) communism museum. I remember being struck at the bitter humour, the outright derision for communism and the Soviet Union, and it striking me that in the UK – in the west – you never seemed to get that level of unequivocal condemnation of communism. Certainly not from anything state funded.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    From the very disheartening evidence on this forum, the government must spend a fair proportion of its savings on free covid test on something infinitely more important: a healthy diet, an enthusiasm for food and teaching blokes who are effing old enough to know better how to cook.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,371
    edited April 2022
    WTF....Sunday's parade of 100s of cars supporting Russia.

    https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1510761033169883136?s=20&t=uon-fP8QQlbjBQuY_dMwVg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    Russia fast hitting 2,500 confirmed pieces of lost kit in Ukraine. Now on 2,438.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    Yes, it's how we make fair comparisons between countries of hugely different populations. That's how come we know, for example, that it's better to live in Japan than China even though Chinese GDP is three times that of Japan.
    Sure, but that's an assessment for individuals. Climate change is very much not about individuals, it's about the aggregate. A better example would have been to point out that China pulls much more weight in terms of the global economy, even though Japan has a higher GDP per capita.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,886
    edited April 2022

    @thetimes
    💶The EU has paid Russia nearly €19 billion for energy since the war began on February 24, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air – a European think tank


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1510986153457033220

    As long as the average cost of the kit they have lost is below 7.8 million Euros, they are still up on the deal.

    However, 421 tanks at 25m Euros each would be 10.5 billion Euros for starters. (Although I'm sure you can get some of those destroyed a bit cheaper. Even allowing for the oligarch uplift....)

    I have the impression you may be a second-hand tank salesman, overvaluing Russian tanks by about 3000-4000%.

    Ballpark is £750k each.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,290

    Incredible. May as well be stopping Germans in the street in 1940s.

    Plus ca change:



    Bojan Pancevski
    @bopanc
    How ordinary Russians feel about their country invading Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1510950346742509570

    Terrifying

    ALSO: the first few are eerily reminiscent of extreme rightwing Israelis. when they talk about Palestine. "Wipe it out". "It's ours anyway". "Fuck these people" etc etc
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    One of those thought-substitute clichés, that. You want to explain what work the phrase is doing?
    It makes it look like we're the bad guys, whereas in reality even if we cut our emissions to zero overnight it would be very few years before China and India's increases would outweigh that.
    Right oh. Do you shoplift from supermarkets on the basis that It's an entirely invisible fraction of their turnover?
    OK, I'm done with feeding this particular troll.
    Next entry on your useful phrase spreadsheet after the lot of lifting, is that? Well done ✔
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Incredible. May as well be stopping Germans in the street in 1940s.

    Plus ca change:



    Bojan Pancevski
    @bopanc
    How ordinary Russians feel about their country invading Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1510950346742509570

    I think, that may have been cut to together to get the most outrages comments out of dozens or maybe hundreds of interviews, but still shocking that anybody could think like that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    One of those thought-substitute clichés, that. You want to explain what work the phrase is doing?
    It makes it look like we're the bad guys, whereas in reality even if we cut our emissions to zero overnight it would be very few years before China and India's increases would outweigh that.
    Right oh. Do you shoplift from supermarkets on the basis that It's an entirely invisible fraction of their turnover?
    OK, I'm done with feeding this particular troll.
    But the Chinese and Indians will continue feeding trolls so you may as well carry on
    :lol:
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    If my arm was twisted I'd lay, Just. I think he's nailed on, but there may be moments in the betting market where he trades at something like 1.33.

    At current prices I think there's no bet. I'm flattish.
    I'm long LePen at 10s. Will be laying back at (say) 4 after R1 when it starts to look as if it's going to be quite close and then I'll lump on Macron since I do think he'll be reelected.

    The best laid plans of mice and men ...
    It's a very interesting election; Macron has basically chosen not to campaign, as it is beneath him in his role as President.

    Whether this strategy works or not is another matter altogether.
    It's like not putting the defendant in the dock. Rarely works.
    (Point of order: I thought the statistics were that Guilty verdicts were very considerably more likely if the defendant took the stand.)
    I did jury service a few months ago, and was - for this reason - very surprised when the defendant was asked to take the stand. His testimony was a complete mess, but it did highlight that the prosecution had filed the wrong charges, which resulted in him being declared summarily Not Guilty the next day.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Endillion said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60984663

    They really sound rather agitated about it

    What, again?
    Still rather than again.
    Logically, it can only be "now or never" once.

    I wonder which there have been more of? Climate alarmists saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the planet" and demanding we annihiliate our way of living to do so - or Labour election campaigns saying it's "x hours/days/weeks to save the NHS".
    Golly, you still think it is alarmism?
    Nobody yet has convinced me that changes that we can realistically make would make any difference - especially in the light of (in particular) China and India refusing to wreck their own societies to appease the climate gods.
    Our per capita emissions are three times higher than India's. And lower than China's.
    "per capita" doing a lot of work there.
    Yes, it's how we make fair comparisons between countries of hugely different populations. That's how come we know, for example, that it's better to live in Japan than China even though Chinese GDP is three times that of Japan.
    Sure, but that's an assessment for individuals. Climate change is very much not about individuals, it's about the aggregate. A better example would have been to point out that China pulls much more weight in terms of the global economy, even though Japan has a higher GDP per capita.
    Indeed. That shouldn't have needed explaining, but there you go.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I think there is a massive comms issue going on. Government advice has changed, but the app didn't. People have been testing every day with lateral flow to get released, still testing positive on days 9 and 10 and staying in, yet the original advice had come down to 7 days, or early release on days 5 and 6 if testing clear. Now its just about staying home if symptomatic.

    The symptoms list became out of date as soon as omicron arrived, but was never acknowledged. There is a lot to criticise the government for, some fair, some less so, but the communications has been one of the worst features.
    Feel ill, coughing, sneezing = stay away from other people as a matter of courtesy
    Feel fine = no change to behaviour.

    Does it need to get more complicated than that?
    It does not.
    Bit more complicated than that, I think.

    Eg these 2 scenarios -

    Feel sick, testing negative for Covid.
    Feel ok, testing positive for Covid.

    Both imo lead to distancing being a good decision.
    Not according to the virologist bloke on R4 this morning. Feel ok - don't test - no change to behaviour.

    Tests now cost money and hence are a luxury that only a certain demographic, albeit a demographic prevalent on PB, can afford.

    Or do they give them out for free at that bar. Wouldn't be surprised.
    End of free tests does change the calculus, yes.

    But, look, if I'm going to visit my parents I'll test for Covid and if I'm positive I'll rearrange. I do not want them catching this virus, and if they do I'd rather it wasn't from me.

    I don't care if a virologist says otherwise. I make my own decisions based on what I consider are the right parameters.

    #livestronglivefree
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275

    Odd that the Seattle Times seems to have any interest in a couple hundred flights cancelled from the UK, when in the US, 12,000 flights were cancelled or severely delayed over the weekend.....due to technical issues and staffing shortages.

    The ST story was from Associated Press, so was (I'm guessing) published in some form by MANY papers across US.

    ST may have picked it up because of local interest/impact of Alaska Airlines flight cancellations this weekend. Also plenty of folks in Emerald City are in habit of jetting off to UK when pandemic(s) do not interfere, prevent or discourage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    MattW said:

    @thetimes
    💶The EU has paid Russia nearly €19 billion for energy since the war began on February 24, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air – a European think tank


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1510986153457033220

    As long as the average cost of the kit they have lost is below 7.8 million Euros, they are still up on the deal.

    However, 421 tanks at 25m Euros each would be 10.5 billion Euros for starters. (Although I'm sure you can get some of those destroyed a bit cheaper. Even allowing for the oligarch uplift....)

    I have the impression you may be a second-hand tank salesman, overvaluing Russian tanks by about 3000-4000%.

    Ballpark is £750k each.
    You forgot the oligarch uplift. I'm cheap....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    If my arm was twisted I'd lay, Just. I think he's nailed on, but there may be moments in the betting market where he trades at something like 1.33.

    At current prices I think there's no bet. I'm flattish.
    I'm long LePen at 10s. Will be laying back at (say) 4 after R1 when it starts to look as if it's going to be quite close and then I'll lump on Macron since I do think he'll be reelected.

    The best laid plans of mice and men ...
    It's a very interesting election; Macron has basically chosen not to campaign, as it is beneath him in his role as President.

    Whether this strategy works or not is another matter altogether.
    He held a massive rally at the weekend, but people in the crowd started chanting "Macron resign".
    Fake news. It was "Let's go Brandon".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I never installed it - when it came out I was usuing an old phone that couldn't handle any more apps, and when I got a new phone I never thought I needed to. Why would I? It wasn't compulsory and no good could come from having it. I still occasionally see the QR codes in restaurants and the like, but haven't seen anyone scan one for at least a year, I would think.
    Nick is literally the only person I have heard of who still uses it. I'm serious. And Nick is A Bloke On The Internet (although admittedly a real person who is also A Bloke In Real Life).

    It sounds like it hasn't been updated for several decades. One for the bin Mr Palmer!
    (without wanting to insult Nick), he does come across as rather atypical in many respects e.g. the can't cook / won't cook / little enjoyment surrounding food.
    My father-in-law is like that. A highly idiosyncratic man in many ways. For work reasons, he has spent most of the time I have known him living three hours from 'home'. Never bothered to learn to cook - for the first six years he lived away, the only food he would eat was cod and chips from the local chippy. This was his diet roughly 49 days out of 50. One meal a day. Surprisingly, he is still alive.

    He got to know the owners of the chippy quite well, obviously. Ended up writing a letter on their behalf to the home office for some immigration-related reason. They never knew his name, though - they referred to him as 'Mr. Tottenham Hotspur' after his favourite conversation topic. Then one day he moved. I often wonder if they wonder what happened to him.

    That is basically my diet. Food of the gods. No fan of Spurs though. Occasionally I wonder about a Michelin-starred night out but reading the menus invariably puts me off.
    Fish and chips is a great meal, I agree. I wouldn't go for it every night, but it's a treat.
    I've never dabbled with Michelin stars, but very occasionally I've had what I consider an expensive meal out. In the £40pp and upwards bracket. Sometimes it's been good, sometimes it's been really good. But it's never been eight times better than a £5 chippy tea.
    Hmm. You need to get out more.
    So do I to find out where the £5 chippy teas are. £12 in Tavistock, takeaway and without the tea
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Russian speaking Germans apparently.

    How big a problem this is for German government I know not.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,215
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I never installed it - when it came out I was usuing an old phone that couldn't handle any more apps, and when I got a new phone I never thought I needed to. Why would I? It wasn't compulsory and no good could come from having it. I still occasionally see the QR codes in restaurants and the like, but haven't seen anyone scan one for at least a year, I would think.
    Nick is literally the only person I have heard of who still uses it. I'm serious. And Nick is A Bloke On The Internet (although admittedly a real person who is also A Bloke In Real Life).

    It sounds like it hasn't been updated for several decades. One for the bin Mr Palmer!
    (without wanting to insult Nick), he does come across as rather atypical in many respects e.g. the can't cook / won't cook / little enjoyment surrounding food.
    My father-in-law is like that. A highly idiosyncratic man in many ways. For work reasons, he has spent most of the time I have known him living three hours from 'home'. Never bothered to learn to cook - for the first six years he lived away, the only food he would eat was cod and chips from the local chippy. This was his diet roughly 49 days out of 50. One meal a day. Surprisingly, he is still alive.

    He got to know the owners of the chippy quite well, obviously. Ended up writing a letter on their behalf to the home office for some immigration-related reason. They never knew his name, though - they referred to him as 'Mr. Tottenham Hotspur' after his favourite conversation topic. Then one day he moved. I often wonder if they wonder what happened to him.

    That is basically my diet. Food of the gods. No fan of Spurs though. Occasionally I wonder about a Michelin-starred night out but reading the menus invariably puts me off.
    Fish and chips is a great meal, I agree. I wouldn't go for it every night, but it's a treat.
    I've never dabbled with Michelin stars, but very occasionally I've had what I consider an expensive meal out. In the £40pp and upwards bracket. Sometimes it's been good, sometimes it's been really good. But it's never been eight times better than a £5 chippy tea.
    I'm not a fan of heavily battered, deep fried, fish. Particularly if it is thin, frozen fish - you are just essentially eating batter. Its quite rare to find decent deep fried fish.

    You can make better fish and chips yourself. Upmarket supermarket fish cakes and oven chips. Or salmon with potato wedges.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,962
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Farooq said:

    According to the BBC, Boris Johnson was given the "wrong information" over whether parties were held in Downing Street during Covid lockdowns, Jacob Rees-Mogg has said.

    And all of a sudden there's an excuse for making the underlings 'responsible'.

    That is course, until Johnson himself gets an FPN.

    Ignorance is no excuse in matters of the lawmakers
    Her Majesty’s Prime Minister ignorant of his own government’s legislation and what is going on at 10 Downing Street? Doesn’t wash.
    Given that his Head of Propriety and Ethics and the Head of the unit which was responsible for drafting the lockdown rules both managed to ignore and breach the rules, I'm not at all surprised that he reportedly thinks he did nothing wrong.

    No 10 sounds like a shambles and if those 2 are in any way representative of the advice that was being given it's not surprising.
    "Ok, so I told parliament the Covid rules had been followed when in fact there'd been multiple breaches so serious as to be criminal. And, yes, I'm aware that lying to parliament is a resigning matter. But, look, I wasn't lying because my operation is such a shambles that I didn't have a clue what was going on."

    This, believe it or not, would appear to be the line emerging.
    "Any Cabinet Minister caught lying to Parliament must immediately resign."

    - "Ah - but 'any' doesn't necessarily mean 'all,' does it?"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    MattW said:

    @thetimes
    💶The EU has paid Russia nearly €19 billion for energy since the war began on February 24, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air – a European think tank


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1510986153457033220

    As long as the average cost of the kit they have lost is below 7.8 million Euros, they are still up on the deal.

    However, 421 tanks at 25m Euros each would be 10.5 billion Euros for starters. (Although I'm sure you can get some of those destroyed a bit cheaper. Even allowing for the oligarch uplift....)

    I have the impression you may be a second-hand tank salesman, overvaluing Russian tanks by about 3000-4000%.

    Ballpark is £750k each.
    Depends - a mint, live T72, small number of careful owners, won't cost you anywhere near that.

    A T80, yeah, I could see that.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Yes, from the way @electionmapsuk was talking about this, I thought it would be a Tory lead.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,140
    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    According to Mr Simon "ignore COVID nonsense keep travelling 2020" Calder, the cancellations are part down to COVID but also because there has been significant numbers of people who have left the airline industry during the pandemic and they haven't been replaced, so there is no headroom.

    Gatwick is struggling too. I have a friend - ex-BA cabin crew - treated shabbily, now getting increasingly desperate emails asking for him to return. Consensus among his peers is BA can Foxtrot Oscar.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    edited April 2022
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I think there is a massive comms issue going on. Government advice has changed, but the app didn't. People have been testing every day with lateral flow to get released, still testing positive on days 9 and 10 and staying in, yet the original advice had come down to 7 days, or early release on days 5 and 6 if testing clear. Now its just about staying home if symptomatic.

    The symptoms list became out of date as soon as omicron arrived, but was never acknowledged. There is a lot to criticise the government for, some fair, some less so, but the communications has been one of the worst features.
    Feel ill, coughing, sneezing = stay away from other people as a matter of courtesy
    Feel fine = no change to behaviour.

    Does it need to get more complicated than that?
    It does not.
    Bit more complicated than that, I think.

    Eg these 2 scenarios -

    Feel sick, testing negative for Covid.
    Feel ok, testing positive for Covid.

    Both imo lead to distancing being a good decision.
    Not according to the virologist bloke on R4 this morning. Feel ok - don't test - no change to behaviour.

    Tests now cost money and hence are a luxury that only a certain demographic, albeit a demographic prevalent on PB, can afford.

    Or do they give them out for free at that bar. Wouldn't be surprised.
    End of free tests does change the calculus, yes.

    But, look, if I'm going to visit my parents I'll test for Covid and if I'm positive I'll rearrange. I do not want them catching this virus, and if they do I'd rather it wasn't from me.

    I don't care if a virologist says otherwise. I make my own decisions based on what I consider are the right parameters.

    #livestronglivefree
    I don't want your parents to catch the virus either and absolutely - if you are going to visit vulnerable people then by all means test. It is less likely that they will become seriously ill given the vaccines but who wants to take the chance and who wants to be the one responsible for giving it to them.

    For everyday living your life, however, not going to see your parents then my view holds. But for goodness sake if you want to test all the time then go for your life.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    I guessing a six point Labour lead is still a hung Parliament. Paging HYUFD.
  • felix said:

    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
    Conservatives paying the price for Rishi ill judged budget
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    kinabalu said:

    "Ok, so I told parliament the Covid rules had been followed when in fact there'd been multiple breaches so serious as to be criminal. And, yes, I'm aware that lying to parliament is a resigning matter. But, look, I wasn't lying because my operation is such a shambles that I didn't have a clue what was going on."

    This, believe it or not, would appear to be the line emerging.

    That is the line Mogg was spinning.

    "Despite the cake, and booze, BoZo didn't know it was a party, and his advisors told him it wasn't."

    And this fukwit has the nuclear codes...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Re: Alaska Very Special Congressional Primary & Election, one factor to keep in mind, is that Top 4 primary is on first-past-the-post basis, with NO ranked choice voting until the special general election.

    Thus (in theory) Republican vote could fractionate among 17 GOP candidates, thus denying ANY a Top 4 spot.

    In theory. In practice, reckon that enough Republicans will coalesce around sufficiently few GOPers to ensure that one or more do make the final.

    Democrats have a similar challenge with 6 hopefuls, but think (or at least hope) Democratic voters will also sort themselves out enough to get their best hope on the August special election ballot.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    Westminster Voting Intention (3 Apr):

    Labour 42% (+5)
    Conservative 36% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-3)
    Reform UK 3% (-2)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-april-2022/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1511010728790085637/photo/1
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,508
    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I think there is a massive comms issue going on. Government advice has changed, but the app didn't. People have been testing every day with lateral flow to get released, still testing positive on days 9 and 10 and staying in, yet the original advice had come down to 7 days, or early release on days 5 and 6 if testing clear. Now its just about staying home if symptomatic.

    The symptoms list became out of date as soon as omicron arrived, but was never acknowledged. There is a lot to criticise the government for, some fair, some less so, but the communications has been one of the worst features.
    Feel ill, coughing, sneezing = stay away from other people as a matter of courtesy
    Feel fine = no change to behaviour.

    Does it need to get more complicated than that?
    It does not.
    Bit more complicated than that, I think.

    Eg these 2 scenarios -

    Feel sick, testing negative for Covid.
    Feel ok, testing positive for Covid.

    Both imo lead to distancing being a good decision.
    Feel sick, then yes, stay away from others as much as possible - covid isn't the only infectious disease going around.

    But if you feel well, why test?
    2 reasons I can think of -

    You are going to visit vulnerable friends & family.

    You had Covid, feel better, but still positive.
    OK. Are you going to test for other infectious diseases as well, or is this the only one you care about?
    The logic applies to any virus which is pandemic-rife and which if (eg) my parents got it would carry a non-trivial risk of them getting seriously sick or dying. ATM, it's this Covid thing.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    felix said:

    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
    SNP down 3 is definite "pinch of salt" territory.
  • Yes, from the way @electionmapsuk was talking about this, I thought it would be a Tory lead.
    I did not see it anything but a Labour poll boost though the SNP at 3% is interesting
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    "Ok, so I told parliament the Covid rules had been followed when in fact there'd been multiple breaches so serious as to be criminal. And, yes, I'm aware that lying to parliament is a resigning matter. But, look, I wasn't lying because my operation is such a shambles that I didn't have a clue what was going on."

    This, believe it or not, would appear to be the line emerging.

    That is the line Mogg was spinning.

    "Despite the cake, and booze, BoZo didn't know it was a party, and his advisors told him it wasn't."

    And this fukwit has the nuclear codes...
    Given his "education" and training, perhaps the Prime Minister does NOT recognize a party as a party, when it does NOT involve trashing the premises in "true" Bullingtonian fashion?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    edited April 2022
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,611
    Scott_xP said:
    With or without the payment for this week's gas?
  • Scott_xP said:
    When are they going to supply weapons to Ukraine and stop buying Russian gas

    This is the real story that shames Germany
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,590

    Referring to todays R&W Poll

    Election Maps says "One party has seen a pretty significant increase in their support compared to last week"...


    Cabt think its the Tories so i reckon Labour up 4 or 5% to a 6 or 7% lead

    Just a guess

    My guess from this morning proved spot on (for once!!)
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    If my arm was twisted I'd lay, Just. I think he's nailed on, but there may be moments in the betting market where he trades at something like 1.33.

    At current prices I think there's no bet. I'm flattish.
    I'm long LePen at 10s. Will be laying back at (say) 4 after R1 when it starts to look as if it's going to be quite close and then I'll lump on Macron since I do think he'll be reelected.

    The best laid plans of mice and men ...
    It's a very interesting election; Macron has basically chosen not to campaign, as it is beneath him in his role as President.

    Whether this strategy works or not is another matter altogether.
    To be fair to Macron, quite a lot going on in the would right now, so he might be a bit busy.

    Also as he seems defiant to get passed round 1. he might will probably benefit from the others all fighting like cats amongst themselves to get to next round.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    PB Pendent Pundit Alert

    In recent comment yours truly referred to "45st POTUS" yet number of PBers calling me out was ZERO.

    Are standards slipping everywhere? Sadly, PB is NOT immune!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,052
    edited April 2022
    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    NEW Economy minster Habeck just said it - German government, its energy regulator to takeover Gazprom Germania “temporarily” - ie that biggest storage field in Western Europe BASF swapped for stakes in Siberia’s gas fields…

    NEW: Official notice from German Government of seizure of Gazprom Germany and all voting rights, ability to appoint board, after change of ownership in Russia to unidentifiable owners “Palmary” and attempt to liquidate, justified on basis of ownership of “critical infrastructure” https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1511006273512345606/photo/1

    The German document points to some very strange goings-on in terms of the ownership of Gazprom’s German arm, which in turn owns the UK arm. Also some intriguing activity on UK ownership register here as well in recent days…
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    I just clicked on the EC link you gave in your post, and it says Tories -126.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
    SNP down 3 is definite "pinch of salt" territory.
    The 6% was more ridiculous/dubious. 3% would be what they got in 2017 even if it still seems on the low side to me.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    I just clicked on the EC link you gave in your post, and it says Tories -126.
    Presumably the difference of +13 is the notional effect of the new boundaries.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    felix said:

    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
    SNP down 3 is definite "pinch of salt" territory.
    The 6% was more ridiculous/dubious. 3% would be what they got in 2017 if it still seems on the low side to me.
    At present I think in pretty much all plausible circumstances the SNP score would be 4% or 5% - so it's swung from too high to too low in one go and that makes it look ridiculous.
  • https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1511010728790085637

    Prepare for Government!

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 Apr):

    Labour 42% (+5)
    Conservative 36% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-3)
    Reform UK 3% (-2)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    kinabalu said:
    Wasn't that the "Tory lead" poll we were promised this morning?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,110
    Tories up a point despite Rishi having shot the government's foot off.
  • https://twitter.com/BalancePowerUK/status/1511014906165972999

    POLL: At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?

    Boris Johnson: 37% (-1)
    Keir Starmer: 37% (+4)

    Via @RedfieldWilton, 3rd April
    Changes w/ 27th March

    If only Keir would stop going on about women having a penis, he'd be...oh wait
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,052

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1511010728790085637

    Prepare for Government!

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 Apr):

    Labour 42% (+5)
    Conservative 36% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-3)
    Reform UK 3% (-2)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar.

    Indeed, though main swing there is SNP to Labour, not Conservative to Labour.

    The Tory voteshare is actually up on the last poll
  • Approval ratings:

    Starmer: 0 (-2)
    Sunak: -5 (-6)
    Johnson: -21 (-13)

    Johnson and Sunak both lose their best PM leads over Starmer:

    Johnson vs Starmer:
    Johnson: 37% (-1)
    Starmer: 37% (+4)

    Sunak vs Starmer:
    Sunak: 35% (-1)
    Starmer: 38% (+3)

    Jesus what happened to Johnson!
  • Starmer now leading Sunak and tying Johnson, I guess wokeism isn't the vote winner the Tories thought it was
  • Lowest Net Approval for Boris since 21 Feb.

    Boris Johnson Approval Rating (3 Apr):

    Approve: 30% (-6)
    Disapprove: 51% (-7)
    Net: -21% (-13)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar

    Bye Johnson
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Scott_xP said:
    Does that include Gerhard Schroeder?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,284
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    Omnium said:

    Macron trading at 1.2 on BF. Quite amazing.

    Yes you should definitely {back/lay} him at that price, it's far too {long/short}!
    If my arm was twisted I'd lay, Just. I think he's nailed on, but there may be moments in the betting market where he trades at something like 1.33.

    At current prices I think there's no bet. I'm flattish.
    I'm long LePen at 10s. Will be laying back at (say) 4 after R1 when it starts to look as if it's going to be quite close and then I'll lump on Macron since I do think he'll be reelected.

    The best laid plans of mice and men ...
    It's a very interesting election; Macron has basically chosen not to campaign, as it is beneath him in his role as President.

    Whether this strategy works or not is another matter altogether.
    It's like not putting the defendant in the dock. Rarely works.
    (Point of order: I thought the statistics were that Guilty verdicts were very considerably more likely if the defendant took the stand.)
    I did jury service a few months ago, and was - for this reason - very surprised when the defendant was asked to take the stand. His testimony was a complete mess, but it did highlight that the prosecution had filed the wrong charges, which resulted in him being declared summarily Not Guilty the next day.
    There was a time when a defendant’s taking the stand or not affected the order of the closing speeches, I believe.
  • Referring to todays R&W Poll

    Election Maps says "One party has seen a pretty significant increase in their support compared to last week"...


    Cabt think its the Tories so i reckon Labour up 4 or 5% to a 6 or 7% lead

    Just a guess

    My guess from this morning proved spot on (for once!!)
    Well played, you must be gutted though
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    And the SNP as the Lib Dems.

    Unfortunately, the Lib Dems definitely wanted a coalition in Westminster to work, and the same can't be said of our Scottish friends.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Re: Alaska Very Special Congressional Primary & Election, one factor to keep in mind, is that Top 4 primary is on first-past-the-post basis, with NO ranked choice voting until the special general election.

    Thus (in theory) Republican vote could fractionate among 17 GOP candidates, thus denying ANY a Top 4 spot.

    In theory. In practice, reckon that enough Republicans will coalesce around sufficiently few GOPers to ensure that one or more do make the final.

    Democrats have a similar challenge with 6 hopefuls, but think (or at least hope) Democratic voters will also sort themselves out enough to get their best hope on the August special election ballot.

    Well considering that Biden got 43% of the vote and Trump got 53% in Alaska, if that was equally divided the each dam this time might get 43/6 = 7.2% and each Rep 53/17 = 3.1% and each Libertarian 2.5/3 = 0.8%

    So we could well have 4 democrats in the final round.

    ok its not going to split like that, but just a thought experiment.
  • That poll would make Starmer the third most successful Labour leader ever
  • HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    And the SNP as the Lib Dems.

    Unfortunately, the Lib Dems definitely wanted a coalition in Westminster to work, and the same can't be said of our Scottish friends.
    It's whataboutism
  • Government Competency Rating (3 Apr):

    Competent: 21% (-3)
    Incompetent: 49% (+6)
    Net: -28% (-9)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    Referring to todays R&W Poll

    Election Maps says "One party has seen a pretty significant increase in their support compared to last week"...


    Cabt think its the Tories so i reckon Labour up 4 or 5% to a 6 or 7% lead

    Just a guess

    My guess from this morning proved spot on (for once!!)
    Starmer fans please explain.
  • The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    Nostrils a-quiver, what IS that smell? There's a very particular aroma emitted by a period of Tory government as it staggers to its end. Could that be it? I think it could be. Yes, I really do.
  • The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share

    Quick! Activate the what about filter!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1511010728790085637

    Prepare for Government!

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 Apr):

    Labour 42% (+5)
    Conservative 36% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-3)
    Reform UK 3% (-2)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 27 Mar.

    Indeed, though main swing there is SNP to Labour, not Conservative to Labour.

    The Tory voteshare is actually up on the last poll
    This is why UNS is not your friend. I suspect in reality Conservative seats would be rather higher.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1510905168359043072

    The elusive Tory lead could finally occur today although it could also be the last be the last one for a while.

    I said this, this morning and was shouted down
    That's because we deploy the IncorrectHorseBattery - a good bunch of men, over 12 shouting downs a minute.
    I am Horse
    And yet we are Battery! Ouch!
    Oh stop horsing around you
    I quite like the Richard Harris film 'A man called horse'. I always rather think of you in that vein given your moniker. Admittedly not all the suffering, but the determination.
    Talking of horses, Apple TV's new serial: Slow Horses with Oldman is just brilliant. Only one episode in so far, but the ambiance and down at heel sense of career failure and alcoholism is just fantastic. Early days, but this might be the best thing I have seen in a very long time.
    The books though weren't recieved so unambiguously well
    Really? Who didn't like them? I thoroughly enjoyed them.
    I never really warmed to the writing style.* Clever plots though. I've read a few, passed on by my father in law.

    *not really meant as criticism - style is very personal, you either like it or you don't. I don't particularly like the writing style, but the quality of the story/premise makes up for it. Dialogue to me grated a bit, everyone being a smartarse all the time and so came across (to me) as a bit superficial. Others probably love it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share

    Quick! Activate the what about filter!
    What a bizarre response.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Re: Hungarian parliamentary "results" for what it's worth, National Self-Government of Germans in Hungary = Landesselbstverwaltung der Ungarndeutschen = Magyarországi Németek Országos Önkormányzata (MNOÖ) has "won" 1 seat by achieving just over 24k special list votes.

    Current numbers for other nationality lists (all with 0 seats)
    > Croats 1,692
    > Slovaks 1,176
    > Ruysns 613
    > Romanians 514
    > Serbs 406
    > Ukrainians 383
    > Poles 262
    > Greeks 221
    > Slovenes 219
    > Armenians 160
    > Bulgarians 146

    Personally think this is all mostly for window dressing by Putinists running Hungary.

    Notice absence of Roma as "nationality"? According to 2011 census they account for over 300k (itself a significant under-counting).
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Scott_xP said:
    trying to look like you are doing something while not actually doing anything.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:
    When are they going to supply weapons to Ukraine and stop buying Russian gas

    This is the real story that shames Germany
    Have we suddenly stopped buying Russian diesel?
    We should all be weaning ourselves off Russian imports ASAP but trying to do it in a few weeks will carry a freight of consequences that you might not want.
    Yes, and I understand governments all over Europe are putting in place plans to wean themselves off dependency on Russia.
    Arguably this should have been done years ago. But the fact that it wasn't shouldn't stop us applauding that it is being done now.
  • Applicant said:

    The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share

    Quick! Activate the what about filter!
    What a bizarre response.
    It's the game we play here
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,290
    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,886

    MattW said:

    @thetimes
    💶The EU has paid Russia nearly €19 billion for energy since the war began on February 24, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air – a European think tank


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1510986153457033220

    As long as the average cost of the kit they have lost is below 7.8 million Euros, they are still up on the deal.

    However, 421 tanks at 25m Euros each would be 10.5 billion Euros for starters. (Although I'm sure you can get some of those destroyed a bit cheaper. Even allowing for the oligarch uplift....)

    I have the impression you may be a second-hand tank salesman, overvaluing Russian tanks by about 3000-4000%.

    Ballpark is £750k each.
    Depends - a mint, live T72, small number of careful owners, won't cost you anywhere near that.

    A T80, yeah, I could see that.
    Our mothy Southern friend was quoting all of them.

    So I quoted a weighted average.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,052
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    And the SNP as the Lib Dems.

    Unfortunately, the Lib Dems definitely wanted a coalition in Westminster to work, and the same can't be said of our Scottish friends.
    Though given Labour would be largest party, Starmer could still lead a minority government rather than a coalition and just dare the SNP to vote with the Tories on any contentious legislation
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,611
    BigRich said:

    Scott_xP said:
    trying to look like you are doing something while not actually doing anything.
    We're now at stage two of German foreign policy:
    1. Ignore issue as long as possible
    2. Say it can't be done
    3. Watch everything get worse
    4. Lose allied trust due to inaction
    5. Reluctantly change course
    6. 🎉"We're amazing because we changed course"🎉


    https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1500887911843213317
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,886
    edited April 2022

    The polls throughout march to today show a remarkably stable conservative share of about 35% but labour seem to attract lib dem, green and in tonight's poll SNP votes

    The trick for labour is to retain this vote share

    Quick! Activate the what about filter!
    Having heard the commentary about Horse's horse avatar, I now can't get Michael Fabricant out of my head.




  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Applicant said:

    Just been pinged by the covid app telling me I was in close contact with someone who's tested positive. Happened on Friday when I went to see, with 700 other people, Stewart Lee ('Proper, vicious prejudice - a self-proclaimed inhabitant of the moral high ground' - Sarah Vine. 'A pot-bellied Bernard Manning for snowflakes.' - Tony Parsons) in Leeds. I've dodged the bug so far. Perhaps my time has come.

    Lee was excellent, by the way.

    I'm actually quite surprised that the covid app is still a thing, tbh.
    Very much so. When I caught Covid it urged me to self-isolate for 10 days, and gave me a countdown each day (today says "Good news! You were released from isolation at 23.59 last night") with various links for advice, guidance, current view of symptoms, etc., as well as giving me a ping showing when I'd probably caught it. I thought it very useful but the contrast with the "Oh, whatever" stance that the Government and some here seem to have adopted was quite stark.
    I think there is a massive comms issue going on. Government advice has changed, but the app didn't. People have been testing every day with lateral flow to get released, still testing positive on days 9 and 10 and staying in, yet the original advice had come down to 7 days, or early release on days 5 and 6 if testing clear. Now its just about staying home if symptomatic.

    The symptoms list became out of date as soon as omicron arrived, but was never acknowledged. There is a lot to criticise the government for, some fair, some less so, but the communications has been one of the worst features.
    Feel ill, coughing, sneezing = stay away from other people as a matter of courtesy
    Feel fine = no change to behaviour.

    Does it need to get more complicated than that?
    It does not.
    Bit more complicated than that, I think.

    Eg these 2 scenarios -

    Feel sick, testing negative for Covid.
    Feel ok, testing positive for Covid.

    Both imo lead to distancing being a good decision.
    Not according to the virologist bloke on R4 this morning. Feel ok - don't test - no change to behaviour.

    Tests now cost money and hence are a luxury that only a certain demographic, albeit a demographic prevalent on PB, can afford.

    Or do they give them out for free at that bar. Wouldn't be surprised.
    End of free tests does change the calculus, yes.

    But, look, if I'm going to visit my parents I'll test for Covid and if I'm positive I'll rearrange. I do not want them catching this virus, and if they do I'd rather it wasn't from me.

    I don't care if a virologist says otherwise. I make my own decisions based on what I consider are the right parameters.

    #livestronglivefree
    I don't want your parents to catch the virus either and absolutely - if you are going to visit vulnerable people then by all means test. It is less likely that they will become seriously ill given the vaccines but who wants to take the chance and who wants to be the one responsible for giving it to them.

    For everyday living your life, however, not going to see your parents then my view holds. But for goodness sake if you want to test all the time then go for your life.
    Yep, targeted testing is where it's at. I thought you were disagreeing with me but after this mutual probing it appears you aren't. So, as we were, thanks for the exchange, bit of a waste of time but not completely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Amateur hour, contd.

    #Russian propagandists think that it is okay for a cameraman to walk through a minefield in front of the bomb squad.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1511013852766474242
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    felix said:

    Lab up 5 Con up 1 SNP down 3! RefUK down 2. Bit of an odd one!.
    Nothing odd about it, Felix.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    Ballot Box Scotland shows a real bounce for Labour in Scotland - back up to where they were in 2017 in Westminster voting intention although the SNP is still on 45%:

    https://ballotbox.scot/survation-march-2022
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Seattle Times ($) via AP - Biden: Putin should face war crimes trial for Bucha killings
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    113 actually. Though yes would end up with a near repetition of the 2010 result. Only with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown
    And the SNP as the Lib Dems.

    Unfortunately, the Lib Dems definitely wanted a coalition in Westminster to work, and the same can't be said of our Scottish friends.
    Though given Labour would be largest party, Starmer could still lead a minority government rather than a coalition and just dare the SNP to vote with the Tories on any contentious legislation
    Starmer must shiver in his sleep at such a thing. The SNP would clearly demand a referendum, but if they win it Labour are out of power and have a very dim shroud hanging over them.

    The LDs had such a nice easy ride with the Cameron-Clegg coalition. They're going to have a far worse time of it in the future.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380

    PB Pendent Pundit Alert

    In recent comment yours truly referred to "45st POTUS" yet number of PBers calling me out was ZERO.

    Are standards slipping everywhere? Sadly, PB is NOT immune!

    You've called yourself out, so it's ok. Standards are not slipping, thanks to you :smile:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And on the issue of the day, fish and chips, in all its battered, oily, greasy glory is a fantastic meal. Once a year. More than that is too much.

    Geales out of choice for me pre-pandemic but I see it has now closed its doors for good.

    Used to be a great New School chippy on Parkway, Camden.

    Hook.

    Also closed by the demic

    In travel news, I am in Izmir. My informed advice: never go to Izmir
    Top attractions the airport and the clock tower, make sure you check them out.

    https://www.getyourguide.co.uk/izmir-l1082/viewing-points-tc238/

    Do they do gravy/curry and chips down along the front?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,290
    Never has UK political polling felt so utterly trivial and meaningless. Like talking about next winter’s skiing, in the trenches of the Somme

    Indeed, the urge to debate either probably comes from the same source
This discussion has been closed.