It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.
Right now it feels like this: 1. Lib Dem 2. SNP 3. Labour 4. Green 5. random independent nutters 6. {Conservative/Alba} 7. {Conservative/Alba} 8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories
Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.
Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.
Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
think an arse would be more appropriate
If you drew an arse, it would be rejected as a mark identifying the voter.
I disagree with you Farooq. It could be how to make a peachy choice. 🍑
Farooq is an oaf of the worst order. A thuggish lowlife who has no life. The kind of lout you would avoid in the pub at all costs as he cast about looking for a victim of his verbal diahorrea.
It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.
Right now it feels like this: 1. Lib Dem 2. SNP 3. Labour 4. Green 5. random independent nutters 6. {Conservative/Alba} 7. {Conservative/Alba} 8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories
Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.
Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.
Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
think an arse would be more appropriate
If you drew an arse, it would be rejected as a mark identifying the voter.
I disagree with you Farooq. It could be how to make a peachy choice. 🍑
Farooq is an oaf of the worst order. A thuggish lowlife who has no life. The kind of lout you would avoid in the pub at all costs as he cast about looking for a victim of his verbal diahorrea.
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
I forget the sequence. Johnson goes to the Queen and says "I want an election". Can she say "Hang on a minute, let me see if someone else has a majority?" Otherwise it's too late for a VONC.
No it isn't, the Tories command a majority in Parliament, they would vote down a general election, replace Johnson as PM within a week by a new PM who could still command the confidence of Parliament given the Tory majority of 80 and that new PM would tell the Queen no election
It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.
Right now it feels like this: 1. Lib Dem 2. SNP 3. Labour 4. Green 5. random independent nutters 6. {Conservative/Alba} 7. {Conservative/Alba} 8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories
Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.
Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.
Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
think an arse would be more appropriate
If you drew an arse, it would be rejected as a mark identifying the voter.
I disagree with you Farooq. It could be how to make a peachy choice. 🍑
Farooq is an oaf of the worst order. A thuggish lowlife who has no life. The kind of lout you would avoid in the pub at all costs as he cast about looking for a victim of his verbal diahorrea.
Thuggish?!
I was being nice to a lowlife arse. This is the new kinder gentle Malc, even think about upsetting cretins nowadays.
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
It’s helpful for Britain’s global image. We’re generally the pantomime bad guys (partly deserved, partly not) so being singled out and dissed by the actual bad guys is useful rehabilitation.
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
As we saw with Corbyn and Labour a party absolutely can pretty much knowingly walk to its own execution in the right circumstances though, including a vote on that occasion. And at the least might not take action to prevent it.
When did Labour vote for a general election under Corbyn when it was in government with a big majority but trailing in the polls
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
Rather than state it though, I did put through some analytic arguments why it could be the better option. You didn’t. You HY is just Mr Mcawber grasping at straws.
Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power?
Meanwhile You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. There can be at least one if not two technical recessions or periods of stagflation. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
Rather than state it though, I did put through some analytic arguments why it could be the better option. Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power. You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
We have 2 years at least to implement Tory policies. A general election now however would likely lead to a Labour minority government.
Calling a general election now would be almost as stupid as Major calling one in 1995 or Brown in 2008. It would have cost the party 2 years in government by bringing forward an election they were likely to lose anyway
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
As we saw with Corbyn and Labour a party absolutely can pretty much knowingly walk to its own execution in the right circumstances though, including a vote on that occasion. And at the least might not take action to prevent it.
When did Labour vote for a general election under Corbyn when it was in government with a big majority but trailing in the polls
It was not intended as a 100% comparison, but to demonstrate parties are perfectly capable of taking self destructive actions. I don't think the Tories will make that particular error, but that doesn't mean they are some perfect machine who will avoid enacting their own execution.
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
Maybe they feel having spashed the cash..
Perhaps that noted anglophile Vladimir Putin & Co were under impression that, once an English gentleman was bought, he'd stay bought?
NOT having had the advantages of an English public school education?
If only Lebedev Sr had sent his wee boy to Eton he’d have some insight into what an amoral shit is the English gentleman.
I wonder if the experience of Mariupol convinced the Russians of the madness of trying to take Kiev?
We assumed it would fall because we assumed the Russians would advance and that was the first major city they encountered. I've no idea what will happen there now but we can't rule out the idea that the Russians may fail to take it. Of course if the land corridor to Crimea is the main aim perhaps Putin will throw the kitchen sink at it.
Looking back it's a wonder they were able to take Kherson so easily.
Major surrender of Ukrainian troops in Mariupol, 250plus.
so F ing sad, trooly brave men, who held on longer than anybody expected,
Yes and I hope they are treated honourably.
By surrendering en masse, they have probably increased their chances of survival, as they're a noticeable block.
There seems to be some doubt about the authenticity of the video. The so-called prisoners (who don't look hench enough to be regular soldiers) look in very good health for volunteers who have been holding out under terrible conditions for a month. Russia keeps making idiotic claims about Ukraine faking videos, which to my mind makes it likely to be something they'd do themselves.
One suggestion is that it is surrenders at Chernobyl, which is one known occurrence.
That would be a better fit with location (semi-rural vs city) and weather (sunny vs overcast Mariupol)
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
Maybe they feel having spashed the cash..
Perhaps that noted anglophile Vladimir Putin & Co were under impression that, once an English gentleman was bought, he'd stay bought?
NOT having had the advantages of an English public school education?
If only Lebedev Sr had sent his wee boy to Eton he’d have some insight into what an amoral shit is the English gentleman.
People object to it as a system but fagging really makes clear your place in the pecking order, and inspired people to express their own power in later life with absolutely no negative impacts on someone's psyche once in power.
I’m going to start a petition to ensure all Arsenals remaining matches this season must be screened live. The Nation needs good belly laughs right now.
She’s gone to bed, something about early start financial year meeting.
Time for Emmerdale. 🤗
At first take read that as Emmanuelle!
I don’t know who that is, but if Arsenal signed them, it could only improve the team. Could they show more from up front than La Cassette - hold balls tightly when given them? Move quickly and effectively in the box? Or, much like Arsenal, let repeated players in round the back, and just result to humping everything that comes near them? 🤔
It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.
Right now it feels like this: 1. Lib Dem 2. SNP 3. Labour 4. Green 5. random independent nutters 6. {Conservative/Alba} 7. {Conservative/Alba} 8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories
Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.
Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.
Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
think an arse would be more appropriate
If you drew an arse, it would be rejected as a mark identifying the voter.
I disagree with you Farooq. It could be how to make a peachy choice. 🍑
Farooq is an oaf of the worst order. A thuggish lowlife who has no life. The kind of lout you would avoid in the pub at all costs as he cast about looking for a victim of his verbal diahorrea.
Evening, Malc. Not many Alba candidates standing in the council elections I see. The electorate doing to your party what Alex did to the staff? Such a pity, how sad.
Better a few honest people than a bunch of lying sheep or even worse lying Lib Dems. You are a real sad git , sell that tandem the Lib Dem losers will not need it.
Confirmation: Romney has just announced on Twitter he is voting Yes to KBJ.
Romney statement:
"After reviewing Judge Jackson’s record and testimony, I have concluded that she is a well-qualified jurist and a person of honor. While I do not expect to agree with every decision she may make on the Court, I believe that she more than meets the standard of excellence and integrity. I congratulate Judge Jackson on her expected confirmation and look forward to her continued service to our nation.”
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
Rather than state it though, I did put through some analytic arguments why it could be the better option. Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power. You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
We have 2 years at least to implement Tory policies. A general election now however would likely lead to a Labour minority government.
Calling a general election now would be almost as stupid as Major calling one in 1995 or Brown in 2008. It would have cost the party 2 years in government by bringing forward an election they were likely to lose anyway
You don’t know for sure, can’t provide evidence to prove for sure, what you state is for sure. The actual votes in next month elections can point to holding a working majority, especially if you believe in yourself you can campaign well and Boris is the right candidate if not hollowed out further. Winning a majority in June saves big dog for years to come.
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
Maybe they feel having spashed the cash..
Perhaps that noted anglophile Vladimir Putin & Co were under impression that, once an English gentleman was bought, he'd stay bought?
NOT having had the advantages of an English public school education?
If only Lebedev Sr had sent his wee boy to Eton he’d have some insight into what an amoral shit is the English gentleman.
People object to it as a system but fagging really makes clear your place in the pecking order, and inspired people to express their own power in later life with absolutely no negative impacts on someone's psyche once in power.
Rather like Chekist training academy and (apparently) Wharton School of Business?
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
Maybe they feel having spashed the cash..
Perhaps that noted anglophile Vladimir Putin & Co were under impression that, once an English gentleman was bought, he'd stay bought?
NOT having had the advantages of an English public school education?
If only Lebedev Sr had sent his wee boy to Eton he’d have some insight into what an amoral shit is the English gentleman.
People object to it as a system but fagging really makes clear your place in the pecking order, and inspired people to express their own power in later life with absolutely no negative impacts on someone's psyche once in power.
Rather like Chekist training academy and (apparently) Wharton School of Business?
I'm assuming considerable overlap across the three.
Update: Russia's delegate to the United Nations: The position of the British presidency of the Security Council is disgraceful and a disgrace to its history.
Perhaps its a result of British reporting focus, but the Russians seem bizarrely fixated on the UK compared to some others, notwithstanding this particular example having a reason for that.
Maybe they feel having spashed the cash..
People never mention the declining fidelity from those who have been bought when they talk about societal decline. It's a bloody disgrace, when I bribe someone I expect a little integrity, thank you very much.
You can not bribe or twist - Thank God! - the British journalist But, seeing what the chap will do, Unbribed - there is no reason to
It's one month and one day to go before the local elections. I think nominations are closed here so pretty close to that time where I need to agonise of the full ordering. I do like the fact that I can rank the parties. It feels much more expressive than just choosing one. I really want the other parties to know that they're second, or 5th, or last.
Right now it feels like this: 1. Lib Dem 2. SNP 3. Labour 4. Green 5. random independent nutters 6. {Conservative/Alba} 7. {Conservative/Alba} 8+. Any current or former Farage vehicles, Nazis, Christians, Libertarians, or obvious paedophile candidates that would otherwise fit in the above categories
Can't yet decide between Salmond and Johnson for that all-important 6th spot.
Goodness me... I've found the candidate list and I'll need to scale back my ambitions a little. Not many options. Not many at all.
I think I'm the same. Is there any law against setting fire to the ballot paper?
I doubt it, but please don't, if they mark that they've issued it to you but then it is not in the box it messes up the verification.
Just draw penises all over it instead (just not a single penis in a box)
Woulda drawing of a penis not be counted as a vote for the Tories?
think an arse would be more appropriate
If you drew an arse, it would be rejected as a mark identifying the voter.
I disagree with you Farooq. It could be how to make a peachy choice. 🍑
Farooq is an oaf of the worst order. A thuggish lowlife who has no life. The kind of lout you would avoid in the pub at all costs as he cast about looking for a victim of his verbal diahorrea.
Thuggish?!
I was being nice to a lowlife arse. This is the new kinder gentle Malc, even think about upsetting cretins nowadays.
Who are you? And what have you done with the real malcolmg?
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
Rather than state it though, I did put through some analytic arguments why it could be the better option. Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power. You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
We have 2 years at least to implement Tory policies. A general election now however would likely lead to a Labour minority government.
Calling a general election now would be almost as stupid as Major calling one in 1995 or Brown in 2008. It would have cost the party 2 years in government by bringing forward an election they were likely to lose anyway
You don’t know for sure, can’t provide evidence to prove for sure, what you state is for sure. The actual votes in next month elections can point to holding a working majority, especially if you believe in yourself you can campaign well and Boris is the right candidate if not hollowed out further. Winning a majority in June saves big dog for years to come.
There’s being imaginative in seeking value, and there’s indulging in sheer fantasy.
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
I forget the sequence. Johnson goes to the Queen and says "I want an election". Can she say "Hang on a minute, let me see if someone else has a majority?" Otherwise it's too late for a VONC.
I don't think so - it's obvious that no one else has a majority, plus the reason for calling an election isn't "I don't have a majority".
Since 1945 there have only been two occasions when one party has held the reins of power continuously for more than 10 years.
1979-1997 Conservatives 18 years
1997 to 2010 Labour 13 years
Since 2010 the Conservatives have been in power continuously and by 2024 it will be 14 years
In the last terms on both previous occasions the party in power changed their leader (John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair).
In 1997 the swing from Conservative to Labour was 10.2%
In 2010 the swing from Labour to Conservative was 6.4%
It will only take a swing of c. 4% from Conservative to Labour to end the tories’ 12 year reign even allowing for a DUP coalition again (smaller than 4% if you discount the DUP joining the tories).
So although Labour need c. 9% to gain an overall majority, they only need about 4% to likely be in power.
The most interesting outcome in my opinion would be if Labour require the SNP because the price of support will be Indyref2. I can see Labour going for that on a practical arrangement that still allows them to campaign for the union in Scotland.
* I don’t think Keir Starmer is Tony Blair. More John Smith. * But equally these are unprecedented times in almost every regard and Boris Johnson, whatever his cheerleaders might say, is a ??? liability.
So, who knows? Currently I’d predict a bigger swing than 2010 but a smaller one than 1997. Somewhere between the two.
(Don’t pile on if you question the above figures. I’ve worked from multiple sites. Kindly be polite if you think there’s a miscalculation).
Starmer: a depressing prime minister for depressing times. i can see it working
Life is shite, maybe Keir will bore us all close to death. But paradoxically we will survive
Boris’ quintessential optimism might seem painfully absurd by 2024 as we gnaw at the rancid corpses of the rats that fed on our famished granny, and then got poisoned because granny was irradiated
God I dunno. As you can see my mind is deranged. i am on the gin. the world is fucked
"Quintessential optimism" - lol
You are SUCH a sucker.
He's a con artist ffs.
Boris is now on his THIRD wife and creating his umpteenth family. If that isn’t “quintessential optimism” I don’t know what is
I see PBers are overanalysing daft mid term polls again.
To think that one of our colleagues was calling a snap 2022 election only a few days ago.
Funny old world.
✋ that was me. Based on thinking they could get a majority now and struggle in 23 and 24 with periods of stagflation hollowing them out on managing economy and time for a change with momentum. Ignore HY or Prof Curtice saying the only reason for going early is improve your position not half it, but a majority of 24 and in till 28, secure your Legacy. The thread header says Starmer hasn’t sealed the deal, deny him time to do that is another consideration. And the Imran scenario another consideration, if Big Dog is about to fall (sounds like action movie pastiche) Boris can still be there in five years if he gets that election and wins majority.
Like you predicted May was about to call one. Like anyone on this site knows what is about to happen next.
a political betting site needs us to make creative predictions to find value?
May of course lost her majority by calling a snap election. Boris would lose a majority of 80 on current polls and Starmer would become PM.
If he even tried he would lose a VONC within a week, Tory MPs, especially in marginal seats, will not vote for their execution
Rather than state it though, I did put through some analytic arguments why it could be the better option. Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power. You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
We have 2 years at least to implement Tory policies. A general election now however would likely lead to a Labour minority government.
Calling a general election now would be almost as stupid as Major calling one in 1995 or Brown in 2008. It would have cost the party 2 years in government by bringing forward an election they were likely to lose anyway
You don’t know for sure, can’t provide evidence to prove for sure, what you state is for sure. The actual votes in next month elections can point to holding a working majority, especially if you believe in yourself you can campaign well and Boris is the right candidate if not hollowed out further. Winning a majority in June saves big dog for years to come.
There’s being imaginative in seeking value, and there’s indulging in sheer fantasy.
Where’s the imagination you need to get these strategy decisions right?
A mid term Labour friendly opinion poll has conservatives on 36. If the actual votes in May point to Tories holding majority in commons, this is the speech Boris can deliver.
“We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver. to deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the who do you trust to now to deliver on Brexit, election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and trust to deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this moment? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”
Passionate Boris running on that versus dull as dishwater running on partygate, there’s only one way the election polls will go this June, isn’t there?
Not so much what is HY frightened of and running away from, what is he running towards? the Tories definitely don’t have two years to deliver as he stated on promises, they have two years of wild International economics, credit crunch for government and electorate to deliver before we go to polls.
Of course it depends how actual votes go in 1 months time - if they point to a comfortable Tory working majority for 5 years it’s a no brainier we have a June election.
Since you are interested in the judge, here are some facts about her personal life from Wikipedia:
In 1996, Brown married surgeon Patrick Graves Jackson, a Boston Brahmin who is a descendant of Continental Congress delegate Jonathan Jackson, and related to U.S. Supreme Court justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.[100][101][102] Through her marriage, Jackson is related to former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.[1] The couple have two daughters, Leila and Talia.[103][104] Jackson is a non-denominational Protestant.
Patrick and Ketanji met at Harvard, and married when she finished law school.
There are a surprising number of racially mixed marriages among prominent American politicians -- in both parties. Some of us have decided to make love, not war.
(Paul Ryan disagrees with her politically, but thinks she's a wonderful person.)
If this is accurate then it will raise the temperature further:
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Mustafa Nayem has written on Telegram that Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will close their borders for goods coming from and to Russia and Belarus.
This would mean that Kaliningrad will be cut off & can only by supplied by sea.
If this is accurate then it will raise the temperature further:
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Mustafa Nayem has written on Telegram that Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will close their borders for goods coming from and to Russia and Belarus.
This would mean that Kaliningrad will be cut off & can only by supplied by sea.
One of the three reactors was old and very unreliable, the operator had been begging to close it for years. But the other two, yes they should have kept them running.
DWP set to start 'slowly' moving 1.7million people onto Universal Credit within weeks The Mirror understand ministers want to restart the 'managed migration' of legacy benefit claimants onto Universal Credit this Spring - and finish it by the end of 2024. It will start up to a cap of 10,000 people - but this is set to be lifted https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/dwp-set-start-slowly-moving-26634488
After much soul searching I decided that I don’t have any useful skills to help anyone do anything in or around Ukraine, so I’ve gone on holiday instead. I’m unemployed and homeless at the moment, so three weeks in Catalonia seemed just the thing to cheer me up a bit!
I flew into Girona yesterday (for £50.98 return with Ryanair!) and I’m loving it. I’ve thoroughly explored Girona - I’ve walked over twenty miles since I arrived yesterday afternoon (including lots of stairs; there are loads of little streets here that are basically just steep staircases) only pausing for booze and food breaks.
Tomorrow I’m planning to walk to Figueres. This might be a bold ambition - it’s about thirty miles - if I get blisters I might have to catch a bus, and then abandon my plan to walk to France the following day. I hope I make it because I really want to visit the tiny tortoise sanctuary (the Pyrenees tortoises are tiny, not the sanctuary) that’s on the route I want to take from Figueres to France.
I haven’t even booked a room in Figueres yet, only my room for tonight is booked here in Girona, so my plans might change before the night is out. For now I’m just going to enjoy a few more beers in this bar in Placa de la Indepencia.
Good for you! Wandering alone around the world - especially Europe - not deciding where you will stay that night until you decide at the last minute, at about noon, is a truly wonderful experience. Absolute spontaneity
It is only possible because internet and smartphones
I did it in 2019 as a 3 week road trip around mainland Greece with my then partner. Spectacular fun. And we ended up in some mad places that I will never forget. Entire mountain villages with one taverna, one inhabitant, one chef, one screeching polecat, and one amazing lamb dinner followed by too much ouzo.
Enjoy
On my own travels from Dingle to Debrecen in both 2nd & 3rd millennia, only time I ever had a reservation (that I can recall anyway) was for a summer school dorm in 1984. Rest of time just winged it via guidebooks (Let's Go & Rick Steves). Worked great. Occasionally slept rough, but that was in good weather by my own choice, being too cheap to spring for something better at that moment.
Point taken. Let’s say it’s EASIER with smartphones, google maps, the net
Some of the glorious places we found in Greece would not have been in any guidebooks. Airbnbs etc
I'd drive into a town, find somewhere to park as close to the centre as I could (which was often the town square if there was no market that day) and see if the nearest hotel that looked good had a room. That normally worked.
Once drove around Cambridge (Eng not Mass) trying to figure out where the hell I was and how the hell to get away and somewhere I could park and maybe find some room at some in or something.
Took at least half an hour, getting dizzy, swearing then weeping as I kept passing the same fucking landmarks time after time, before I finally cracked the code.
This is Douglas Adams on the subject:
“He had extracted himself from the Cambridge one-way system by the usual method, which involved going round and round it faster and faster until he achieved a sort of escape velocity and flew off at a tangent in a random direction, which he was now trying to identify and correct for.”
I know that quote, and have *never* experienced that in Cambridge. Even when I first moved here, and had friends at the uni which meant that I'd go to all sorts of nooks and crannies (since I had a car...)
In fact, I find it hard to think of where he's referring to - and I've walked or run nearly every (non-college) street in Cambridge,
Edit: DNA was a student there in the 1970s. Has the one-way system been abandoned or the area demolished/redeveloped (e.g. Grafton Centre)?
1977 -- Restricted access to St Andrews Street, Trumpington St/King's Parade.
1981-83 -- Kite redevelopment to build the Grafton Centre.
1992 -- Ban on traffic in triangle of Trinity St, Market St, Sidney St (except for access).
1997 -- Barriers on Thompson's Lane.
1999 -- Restricted access to Emmanuel Rd, Parker St, Park Parade (except for access).
2002 -- Silver St restricted access. (Man killed in 2006 by the rising bollards).
So, DNA's Cambridge road system from the early 1970s has long, long gone.
In general, Cambridge City Council should have acted much earlier -- but there was a vast non-resident shoppers' lobby within the Cambridgeshire County Council. Out of towners wanted to be able to park to go to Eaden Lilley and Joshua Taylor (both now gone).
Brilliant, thanks. I knew the DNA quote about the one-way system when I moved to Cambridge, and when I got here I just did not recognise it. I wondered if there were some weird private access roads to the colleges or something...
One of the three reactors was old and very unreliable, the operator had been begging to close it for years. But the other two, yes they should have kept them running.
Comments
Do you have any analysis that 23 or 24 are better years to try and hold on to that majority and retain power?
Meanwhile You are handing Starmer’s Labour and libdems more time and momentum for time for change message, you are at risk of having economic credibility hollowed out by a worsening international outlook in next three years. There can be at least one if not two technical recessions or periods of stagflation. You don’t have time left in this parliament to meet manifesto promises especially on levelling up - not entirely down to vagueness at top of government on how to deliver on promises, though there is that, but covid and war have torpedoed time for this government to deliver.
And of course, if Boris is ambitious himself, what’s the point of Tories maintaining some of his majority if he’s not the PM anymore.
Calling a general election now would be almost as stupid as Major calling one in 1995 or Brown in 2008. It would have cost the party 2 years in government by bringing forward an election they were likely to lose anyway
Separatists came to draft this woman’s son to fight against Ukraine.
She answers “he isn’t here, he’s with his wife (probably in a Ukrainian-controlled area).
- Why are you filming?
- It’s going on YouTube & will be used in the Hague Tribunal one day.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1511010758565498880
$1 million a year job in Manhattan to become Labour MP for Huddersfield?
Murkowski has just said she will vote Yes to KBJ.
Can't see any confirmation but his Yes vote has just gone to 99% on PredictIt.
Romney statement:
"After reviewing Judge Jackson’s record and testimony, I have concluded that she is a well-qualified jurist and a person of honor. While I do not expect to agree with every decision she may make on the Court, I believe that she more than meets the standard of excellence and integrity. I congratulate Judge Jackson on her expected confirmation and look forward to her continued service to our nation.”
"Germany shuts down half of its 6 remaining nuclear plants"
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-germany-nuclear-shutdown-story-82051054
Thank God! - the British journalist
But, seeing what the chap will do,
Unbribed - there is no reason to
You cannot hope to bribe or con,
thank God! Fox News Tucker Carlson.
But, seeing what the man will do unbribed,
there's no occasion to.
(With apologies to Humbert Wolfe.)
Final confirmation vote expected on Thursday or Friday.
A mid term Labour friendly opinion poll has conservatives on 36. If the actual votes in May point to Tories holding majority in commons, this is the speech Boris can deliver.
“We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver. to deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the who do you trust to now to deliver on Brexit, election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and trust to deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this moment? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”
Passionate Boris running on that versus dull as dishwater running on partygate, there’s only one way the election polls will go this June, isn’t there?
Not so much what is HY frightened of and running away from, what is he running towards? the Tories definitely don’t have two years to deliver as he stated on promises, they have two years of wild International economics, credit crunch for government and electorate to deliver before we go to polls.
Of course it depends how actual votes go in 1 months time - if they point to a comfortable Tory working majority for 5 years it’s a no brainier we have a June election.
There are a surprising number of racially mixed marriages among prominent American politicians -- in both parties. Some of us have decided to make love, not war.
(Paul Ryan disagrees with her politically, but thinks she's a wonderful person.)
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Mustafa Nayem has written on Telegram that Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will close their borders for goods coming from and to Russia and Belarus.
This would mean that Kaliningrad will be cut off & can only by supplied by sea.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1511097563625230339
The Mirror understand ministers want to restart the 'managed migration' of legacy benefit claimants onto Universal Credit this Spring - and finish it by the end of 2024. It will start up to a cap of 10,000 people - but this is set to be lifted
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/dwp-set-start-slowly-moving-26634488
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1511019538325942282?s=21&t=qAGw_6sEM3jwJHGTACwUuA
https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1511091606350622720?s=21&t=qAGw_6sEM3jwJHGTACwUuA
https://firstlightfusion.com/media/fusion
Proof of concept for what is possibly the most quickly achievable way of building a commercial fusion plant to generate electricity.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1511187621854138377
Why did they call it The Tolkien Professorship when The Fellowship of the Ring was right there
https://mobile.twitter.com/LauraAmalasunta/status/1510608802990669833