Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
The argument over the migs maybe provides a useful distraction while ever-increasing supplies of other weapons are shipped to Ukraine (it was even suggested in German media that the whole debate was artificially created for this very reason, no idea how plausible that is). And if, as the article suggests, they could be useful for spare parts - spare parts could be got to Ukraine without shipping the actual planes.
The other day I did wonder if Poland, Estonia etc could be used as a repair area for Ukrainian tanks and machinery. It might be very helpful to the Ukrainians.
Or even as training areas (it wouldn't surprise me if that was already happening...)
Estonia is not that close to Ukraine, its over 1100km from Tallinn to the Ukrainian border. Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and several other countries as well as Poland are a lot close than Estonia.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Salisbury was the trigger for me - it suggested a global recklessness which we're unused to in superpowers (yes, Trump sounded reckless but he didn't do that much abroad), and totally different from the "sober" image that Putin projects. That was a dangerous sign of unpredictability, now writ large.
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
This is just an unknown. I started to look in to Orban a few years ago. There is zero serious analysis on Orban's Hungary - no objective studies or books written about him. All just propoganda on both sides, as far as I could see. If anyone disagrees and can recommend something, I would like to know.
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
Not yet. But I strongly suspect that there is going to be a lot less tolerance of Orban in the EU after this. We have seen, vividly, where this leads. And we should be backing the EU up 100% by the way.
If Hungary wants the benefits of access to western markets and prosperity it needs to play by the rules. Not for the first time I rue the loss of Alastair Meeks on this platform.
If anyone else has insight I would welcome them sharing it.
Personally, I don't see the path from Orban to Putin. They are very different post communist societies. Hungary is a mystery to me, but when looking at Poland, it is easy to understand how the institutions of a supposedly plural democratic society were captured and dominated by a 'liberal cultural elite' and weaponised against the forces of conservatism and tradition; resulting in the (admittedly rather clumsy) backlash that has now occurred. There are vague similarities with the process of Brexit. Very messy, but not necessarily undemocratic.
In Russia, it appears to me that process of democratisation never happened. It effectively ceased after the storming of the Duma in 1993. The soviet system looks like it was simply reinvented with Russian nationalism replacing socialism as the guiding ideology. The end of the cold war was just the loss of non-Russian soviet satellite states. The war in Ukraine is a continuation of this process. This explains why Russia is acting the way it is. It is a war that it is losing.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
That's a good question. It would be very easy in retrospect to point to the poisoning of Litvinenko in 2006, or various other events, as being obvious turning points, when perhaps it was not so reasonable to view them as such at the time.
I think the annexation of Crimea - in very clear contravention of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine - was the moment. When a country repudiates an agreement it has made with other countries in the past then it devalues any future agreements that might be made with that country. So there is no basis on which it is possible to do business with them.
The same argument applies to China. The crushing of dissent in Hong Kong, the repudiation of the one country, two systems agreement on the handover of Hong Kong from the British, is the moment when it is clear that China does not recognise the value of being part of the rules-based international system. They will do as much as they think they can get away with - so we have to be prepared to not allow them to get away with things, by reducing our economic dependence on them, and having the military capability to deter aggression.
I think it is a difficult question. With hindsight it seems like the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 should have led to a much much stronger reaction from the whole of the West. But what about Putin's intervention in Georgia in 2008? Somehow that was a continuation of a conflict that had started with the break up of the Soviet Union. Or the second Chechen war? Putin showed then how brutal he was - but an internal Russian affair? And we tolerate bombing of civilians elsewhere. The Litvinenko poisoning, yes, but what have we done about the murder of Kashoggi?
But I agree that Crimea was the right moment to draw a line - the kinds of sanctions we have now should have happened then.
I guess a lot of people, including me, thought Putin wouldn't be so stupid as to do something that would be so disastrous for Russia as a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
When similar genocides took place in Syria, Rwanda, Cambodia and indeed Bosnia we did very little. In Yemen too a pretty brutal civil war is going on now and again the West does not do much. When we did intervene in Afghanistan and Iraq and Kosovo and Libya to stop the atrocities committed by the Taliban, Saddam against the Kurds and the Serbs and Gaddaffi we were often heavily criticised for it and it did not always turn out perfectly.
Yes the scenes in Ukraine are awful and yes the West should continue to send aid and supplies to the Ukrainians. However there is no question of military intervention in terms of NATO troops and jets being sent to fight the Russians unless Putin attacks a NATO nation or NATO military forces
Agree plus we only went into Afghan/Iraq because we thought we could win against a supposedly vastly inferior opponent.
Putin has a huge approval right now domestically although plenty of thinking Russians disagree strongly with what's happening. However any nation, no matter how much in the "wrong" they are, would rally round if they perceived they were under attack by a foreign actor.
When similar genocides took place in Syria, Rwanda, Cambodia and indeed Bosnia we did very little. In Yemen too a pretty brutal civil war is going on now and again the West does not do much. When we did intervene in Afghanistan and Iraq and Kosovo and Libya to stop the atrocities committed by the Taliban, Saddam against the Kurds and the Serbs and Gaddaffi we were often heavily criticised for it and it did not always turn out perfectly.
Yes the scenes in Ukraine are awful and yes the West should continue to send aid and supplies to the Ukrainians. However there is no question of military intervention in terms of NATO troops and jets being sent to fight the Russians unless Putin attacks a NATO nation or NATO military forces
Despite your last paragraph UK and others are de facto arming Ukraine with NATO lethal equipment so to be honest your comments are really semantics
Also wasn't Bobbitt's thesis that the most recent epoch finished with the Berlin Wall coming down and apparently the end of the Cold War in 1991. It having started in 1914 IIRC. Perhaps he would have to revise his view in there light of recent Russian actions.
Also wasn't Bobbitt's thesis that the most recent epoch finished with the Berlin Wall coming down and apparently the end of the Cold War in 1991. It having started in 1914 IIRC. Perhaps he would have to revise his view in there light of recent Russian actions.
The epoch ended in the first months of 2020. 1914-2019 will be the subject of History courses in the future. Assuming anyone is around.
My own surmise, is that President Biden already knew - based on US/NATO/UKR intelligence - that these headlines were coming, that atrocities were happening with more coming.
Partly by deliberate design, and partly from lack of effective command & control. Paradox like the CoE?
No gaffe calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with his willing henchpeople.
Instead, warning and indictment.
It may not have been deliberate - it was unscripted but we can’t tell if it was planned unscripted or not - but he would have been aware & I can see why that was front of mind as a description when he was asked
Given the reports that Russian troops were not using encrypted comms, and the level of electronic monitoring going on, the Americans must have a very, very good idea of exactly what is going on. As it happens.
When you combine that with satellite photography, and radar tracking down to individual vehicles from E-8 and related systems, the Russians must be an open book to whoever has that combined data set.
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
My word, that man can speak. Brilliant use of short, sharp, vivid sentences.
He's risen to the occasion to a remarkable degree - the Ukrainians are lucky to have had him at exactly this time. And in the end Russia is going to need him too. If there's any peace deal - and in the end there will be, as no wars last forever - it will need to be sold the Ukraine parliament, and he's now got the authority to do it.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
That's a good question. It would be very easy in retrospect to point to the poisoning of Litvinenko in 2006, or various other events, as being obvious turning points, when perhaps it was not so reasonable to view them as such at the time.
I think the annexation of Crimea - in very clear contravention of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine - was the moment. When a country repudiates an agreement it has made with other countries in the past then it devalues any future agreements that might be made with that country. So there is no basis on which it is possible to do business with them.
The same argument applies to China. The crushing of dissent in Hong Kong, the repudiation of the one country, two systems agreement on the handover of Hong Kong from the British, is the moment when it is clear that China does not recognise the value of being part of the rules-based international system. They will do as much as they think they can get away with - so we have to be prepared to not allow them to get away with things, by reducing our economic dependence on them, and having the military capability to deter aggression.
Crimea and Syria both made it abundantly clear. There were certainly good arguments against direct intervention, but pursuing business as usual with Russia was a big foreign policy mistake, made by governments both right and left in Europe and the US.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
I am slightly sceptical about your claims wrt tidal lagoons - I think the pricings are optimistic (as to be fair, is often the case with fans and proposers of infrastructure projects).
But why not do both nuclear and tidal lagoons?
The pricings on tidal lagoons are for a Cardiff-type lagoon, much larger than the Swansea template. i am confident about them.
You could build both. But when you have one tidal lagoon, nuclear will never make economic sense again.
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
I am slightly sceptical about your claims wrt tidal lagoons - I think the pricings are optimistic (as to be fair, is often the case with fans and proposers of infrastructure projects).
But why not do both nuclear and tidal lagoons?
One certainty is that nuclear costings are always and inevitably optimistic.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Salisbury was the trigger for me - it suggested a global recklessness which we're unused to in superpowers (yes, Trump sounded reckless but he didn't do that much abroad), and totally different from the "sober" image that Putin projects. That was a dangerous sign of unpredictability, now writ large.
If I am completely honest, I think it is only now that it has actually become clear. It isn't the alleged genocide, we've seen all that from other dictators - not least the conduct of the Chinese in Xinjiang, and we carry on doing business with them. The problem with Putin is the territorial claims on large parts of Europe and willingness to conduct violent territorial invasions to satiate them. This danger has only truly just come to light, although the warning signs were there in Ukraine for 8 plus years.
Also wasn't Bobbitt's thesis that the most recent epoch finished with the Berlin Wall coming down and apparently the end of the Cold War in 1991. It having started in 1914 IIRC. Perhaps he would have to revise his view in there light of recent Russian actions.
The epoch ended in the first months of 2020. 1914-2019 will be the subject of History courses in the future. Assuming anyone is around.
He is very interesting on it but I haven't seen an update recently.
"Focusing on the case of twentieth century conflicts, Bobbitt explains how in this epoch--which lasted from the First World War to the collapse of the Soviet Union-- fascism, communism and liberal democracy competed, with liberal democracy emerging triumphant at the end of the century. After comparing the essential features of the nation state with the market state, Bobbitt focuses on the intervention in Libya and the response to Iran's nuclear programs highlighting the dilemmas they pose for the Obama administration caught in the transition from nation state to market state."
My own surmise, is that President Biden already knew - based on US/NATO/UKR intelligence - that these headlines were coming, that atrocities were happening with more coming.
Partly by deliberate design, and partly from lack of effective command & control. Paradox like the CoE?
No gaffe calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with his willing henchpeople.
Instead, warning and indictment.
It may not have been deliberate - it was unscripted but we can’t tell if it was planned unscripted or not - but he would have been aware & I can see why that was front of mind as a description when he was asked
Given the reports that Russian troops were not using encrypted comms, and the level of electronic monitoring going on, the Americans must have a very, very good idea of exactly what is going on. As it happens.
When you combine that with satellite photography, and radar tracking down to individual vehicles from E-8 and related systems, the Russians must be an open book to whoever has that combined data set.
It’s been very clear since the beginning of this conflict, that not only are the Russians struggling for basic communications, but that the Ukranians have an awful lot of non-military help with intelligence coming from somewhere - count on the fingers of one hand the countries capable of offering such assistance, and look for the constant flights of military intelligence aircraft operating daily in Polish and Romanian airspace. There will be a lot of satellites focussed over Ukraine too, with established lines of communication back to the Ukraine government and military. It’s in the interests of a lot of countries for Russia to lose this war, and be seen to have lost badly.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
Yes, it's looking a much better deal now. I doubt electricity is going to go below £92.50 again (although there might be gotchas buried in the contract that make it a bad deal). Initially I was pro-Hinkley Point; then marginally against. I haven't looked into the situation for a few years now, but I'm probably in favour now, given the need to diversify and secure out energy sources.
And BTW, so sorry to hear your news. It's hard to know what to say at such times, but hope you're back to your normal cheery self soon.
The issue I have with new nuclear* and other expensive forms of electricity generation is that it keeps electricity too expensive relative to direct burning of fossils fuels and removes the incentive to switch. Currently electricity is I think about 3 times the cost per kwh compared with gas. Cheap renewables should reduce that gap significantly, particularly off-peak where storage options could kick in.
* Definitely extend the life of existing nuclear plants where possible to deal with current emergency.
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
Thanks.
I've put on the 10p Betfair allowed me.
Well. At least I won't feel guilty about putting you in the poor house!
My word, that man can speak. Brilliant use of short, sharp, vivid sentences.
He's risen to the occasion to a remarkable degree - the Ukrainians are lucky to have had him at exactly this time. And in the end Russia is going to need him too. If there's any peace deal - and in the end there will be, as no wars last forever - it will need to be sold the Ukraine parliament, and he's now got the authority to do it.
I don't think we should call it a peace deal. Surely we should be calling it an appeasement deal. As that is what it would be.
My word, that man can speak. Brilliant use of short, sharp, vivid sentences.
He's risen to the occasion to a remarkable degree - the Ukrainians are lucky to have had him at exactly this time. And in the end Russia is going to need him too. If there's any peace deal - and in the end there will be, as no wars last forever - it will need to be sold the Ukraine parliament, and he's now got the authority to do it.
I don't think we should call it a peace deal. Surely we should be calling it an appeasement deal. As that is what it would be.
Call it what you want; as Nick has noted, all wars come to an end more often than not with a victor and a vanquished. At that point a different mode of engagement becomes necessary.
Yes, looks that way for him unfortunately. Boris however now well above Rishi on net approval with ConHome's survey of Conservative members and Ben Wallace clearly out in front followed by Zahawi
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
In response to the header, we just have to be patient. Sanctions are smashing the Russian economy apart, and Western weaponry, combined with Ukrainian bravery, are destroying their armed forces.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Salisbury was the trigger for me - it suggested a global recklessness which we're unused to in superpowers (yes, Trump sounded reckless but he didn't do that much abroad), and totally different from the "sober" image that Putin projects. That was a dangerous sign of unpredictability, now writ large.
If I am completely honest, I think it is only now that it has actually become clear. It isn't the alleged genocide, we've seen all that from other dictators - not least the conduct of the Chinese in Xinjiang, and we carry on doing business with them. The problem with Putin is the territorial claims on large parts of Europe and willingness to conduct violent territorial invasions to satiate them. This danger has only truly just come to light, although the warning signs were there in Ukraine for 8 plus years.
I would suggest too that the history of Ukraine and Russia were so intertwined...... and I don't mean just in the later Tsarist and Soviet era ...... that some confusion over who is really what and owns which is understandable. After all, I believe Kyiv, as Kiev, was the original capital of what we now know as Russia.
My own surmise, is that President Biden already knew - based on US/NATO/UKR intelligence - that these headlines were coming, that atrocities were happening with more coming.
Partly by deliberate design, and partly from lack of effective command & control. Paradox like the CoE?
No gaffe calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with his willing henchpeople.
Instead, warning and indictment.
It may not have been deliberate - it was unscripted but we can’t tell if it was planned unscripted or not - but he would have been aware & I can see why that was front of mind as a description when he was asked
Given the reports that Russian troops were not using encrypted comms, and the level of electronic monitoring going on, the Americans must have a very, very good idea of exactly what is going on. As it happens.
When you combine that with satellite photography, and radar tracking down to individual vehicles from E-8 and related systems, the Russians must be an open book to whoever has that combined data set.
It’s been very clear since the beginning of this conflict, that not only are the Russians struggling for basic communications, but that the Ukranians have an awful lot of non-military help with intelligence coming from somewhere - count on the fingers of one hand the countries capable of offering such assistance, and look for the constant flights of military intelligence aircraft operating daily in Polish and Romanian airspace. There will be a lot of satellites focussed over Ukraine too, with established lines of communication back to the Ukraine government and military. It’s in the interests of a lot of countries for Russia to lose this war, and be seen to have lost badly.
Yes - and the most recent innovations have been in the field of data fusion and data mining. Joining up all the sources of information into a single, coherent picture has long been the dream of military minds. See the original Drayer Tables - which were computers designed to take all the information about enemy ships, and generate fire control solutions from them. In 1905 or so.
That this "living map" of data is being generated, I have little doubt. The question is what is being passed to the Ukrainians.
During the Falklands war, incidentally, the NSA was breaking the Argentinian codes in real time. In fact, because the Argentinians were using hand operated wheel cypher machines, and the NSA had computerised breaking the codes, they were teleprintering decrypts to the UK faster than the Argentines were reading their own messages.
Yes, looks that way for him unfortunately. Boris however now well above Rishi on net approval with ConHome's survey of Conservative members and Ben Wallace clearly out in front followed by Zahawi
Rightly or wrongly Boris is not going anywhere anytime soon, but when he does leave it is upto his mps and the membership to elect an election winning candidate
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
weird rebuttal by him and apparently you of the suggestion that getting Covid is an un-Tory thing to do
"Yes it's true. I'm afraid to say that I am the latest MP to test positive. I'm certainly not the first Tory that has and won't be the last. I'd like to reassure my legions of fans that I'm doing well, resting and in good spirits."
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Would make Starmer one of the most successful Labour politicians in history.
Would mean he wins the most Labour seats of any Labour leader after Blair, Wilson and Attlee and Macdonald yes and likely becomes PM in a hung parliament
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Granddaughter seems to have been positive for ca. 10 days!
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
The problem with the Treaties is they need unanimous support of the other members to suspend a member state . This is why the relationship between Poland and the EU is now key as to what happens .
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 52m Plummeting Rishi. Sunak drops to third bottom in ConHome’s new cabinet minister rankings (based on the views of Tory members). Spring Statement taking its toll.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
"Giving Putin an offramp" is a disgusting phrase. Yes we all get the point that is being dressed up as assessment of practical realities (which does nothing to disguise its actual intent), but it still boils down to 'less resistance the better, as that gives him an out'.
I view it as "Why can't Ukraine just surrender? I mean, the Russian's will only kill maybe 50% of the population and put the rest in gulags. It's bad but my inability to buy Russian gas and oil would be worse."
Reagan was right then, and right now. Lob one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
Ironically, I've just finished watching on Youtube a John O'Groats to Lands End driving challenge that went pear-shaped owing to a diesel fuel leak that took a day to diagnose and fix, to the benefit of Scotland's hotel sector. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YtCUC9Oc2Q
But yes, there is still a problem with charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, and leaving it to the market, even though things are slowly improving, has been unsatisfactory except for Tesla owners.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
he goes on...
"This week, Grant Shapps announced a target of 300,000 more chargers across the country by 2030, the year when the Government says it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel powered cars. Fatally, he’s left it to local authorities to make sure the roll-out happens. Mark my words, it won’t. Not without national direction.
My advice is this. If you only do relatively short journeys, then buying an electric car is a good decision. If you regularly travel more than 150 miles, it isn’t. In my experience, the car manufacturers lie about the expected range. My electric car is supposed to do 298 miles. The reality is that it does 206, or 215 if the weather is warm."
My take: you are fine with an electric car if you don't really need a car at all. like London dwelling politicians.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
I doubt whether the situation has improved since I was in the market 8 or so months ago. At the time there plenty of options for charging in Essex and indeed the SE generally, but they were much less plentiful where I thought myself likely to go on holiday or to visit relations.
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
The problem with the Treaties is they need unanimous support of the other members to suspend a member state . This is why the relationship between Poland and the EU is now key as to what happens .
Sorry for being pedantic, but when you say it Needs unanimous support, does that include the nation in question, i.e. des it need the support of all the other nation, and the nation that might be Kicked out or just all the others?
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
Hungary has irredentist claims of its own. Particularly in Ukraine's west. And Orban is a wannabe Putin, as well, of course.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
This is both simple & complex at the same time. For the end consumer, it’s simple. “Just build more chargers!”. The reality is that installing more chargers requires a huge amount of infrastructure work. You need new high capacity electrical cabling from the nearest poing of access to the high voltage distribution network which is very expensive, you need the generating capacity to feed the chargers, which is also going to have to be built out.
None of this is cheap, or quick to build. Necessary? Absolutely. But it’s not something that the government can turn around and build out in a year across the nation.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
he goes on...
"This week, Grant Shapps announced a target of 300,000 more chargers across the country by 2030, the year when the Government says it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel powered cars. Fatally, he’s left it to local authorities to make sure the roll-out happens. Mark my words, it won’t. Not without national direction.
My advice is this. If you only do relatively short journeys, then buying an electric car is a good decision. If you regularly travel more than 150 miles, it isn’t. In my experience, the car manufacturers lie about the expected range. My electric car is supposed to do 298 miles. The reality is that it does 206, or 215 if the weather is warm."
My take: you are fine with an electric car if you don't really need a car at all. like London dwelling politicians.
It's like WFH in a large semi with spare rooms that can become home offices. Recharging electric cars overnight at home is great for those with off-street parking but what about the rest?
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
This is just an unknown. I started to look in to Orban a few years ago. There is zero serious analysis on Orban's Hungary - no objective studies or books written about him. All just propoganda on both sides, as far as I could see. If anyone disagrees and can recommend something, I would like to know.
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
Not yet. But I strongly suspect that there is going to be a lot less tolerance of Orban in the EU after this. We have seen, vividly, where this leads. And we should be backing the EU up 100% by the way.
If Hungary wants the benefits of access to western markets and prosperity it needs to play by the rules. Not for the first time I rue the loss of Alastair Meeks on this platform.
If anyone else has insight I would welcome them sharing it.
Indeed. Swapping the excellent Alastair Meeks for the excruciatingly tedious Leon/SeanT must be one of the worst exchanges in history
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
Ironically, I've just finished watching on Youtube a John O'Groats to Lands End driving challenge that went pear-shaped owing to a diesel fuel leak that took a day to diagnose and fix, to the benefit of Scotland's hotel sector. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YtCUC9Oc2Q
But yes, there is still a problem with charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, and leaving it to the market, even though things are slowly improving, has been unsatisfactory except for Tesla owners.
As Dale says in his piece, the mistake has been to let local authorities assume responsibility for building out the charger network, which means it’s not thought through as an integrated system. Highways Agency need to take responsibility for trunk road provision, otherwise it’s never going to be done right. The Tesla network has been done well, but that is now coming under strain as the number of their cars increases dramatically.
EV as a concept appears to be a big step back for many, especially for that occasional longer journey which now requires serious planning. Imagine what the roads down to Cornwall look like on a summer’s Friday evening, as thousands of EVs from the Home Counties all run out of charge in the same place.
"Range anxiety" seems to be a fashionable affliction of the comfortably off. How about a "can't go anywhere cos I can't afford the petrol anxiety" or "my direct debit on my Council Tax failed anxiety" article or two? Same people want us not to rely on foreign fuels. Whilst moaning about owt that brings that a little closer.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
I am slightly sceptical about your claims wrt tidal lagoons - I think the pricings are optimistic (as to be fair, is often the case with fans and proposers of infrastructure projects).
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
The Today programme did an interview this morning with a right of centre Hungarian commentator this morning that was very good. Too detailed to list here but worth a listen and appeared to answer a lot of questions.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
How many ethnic Magyars actually remain in Hungary?
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
he goes on...
"This week, Grant Shapps announced a target of 300,000 more chargers across the country by 2030, the year when the Government says it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel powered cars. Fatally, he’s left it to local authorities to make sure the roll-out happens. Mark my words, it won’t. Not without national direction.
My advice is this. If you only do relatively short journeys, then buying an electric car is a good decision. If you regularly travel more than 150 miles, it isn’t. In my experience, the car manufacturers lie about the expected range. My electric car is supposed to do 298 miles. The reality is that it does 206, or 215 if the weather is warm."
My take: you are fine with an electric car if you don't really need a car at all. like London dwelling politicians.
I'm much happier with my hybrid than i'd be with full electric - and unconvinced of the 2030 target as realistic./
"Range anxiety" seems to be a fashionable affliction of the comfortably off. How about a "can't go anywhere cos I can't afford the petrol anxiety" or "my direct debit on my Council Tax failed anxiety" article or two? Same people want us not to rely on foreign fuels. Whilst moaning about owt that brings that a little closer.
it is now, like it was in 1900 when there were 3 chemists shops in the country selling distilled petroleum spirit. It won't be when everyone's electric.
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 52m Plummeting Rishi. Sunak drops to third bottom in ConHome’s new cabinet minister rankings (based on the views of Tory members). Spring Statement taking its toll.
I was chatting to my next door neighbour who has bought an MG ev and he said he had been to Betwys Coed on one charge which is just 41 miles round trip
He had plugged it into his garage power socket to charge it overnight, as he said that an electrician had indicated that his electric wiring would not be capable of using a fast charger and as his supply was joint with next door his next doors neighbour's drive would need to be excavated, this just after they have had a complete replacement drive installed in the last few weeks
The theory on EV s is fine, but the practice is not so and also how does a Chancellor replace the 35 billion pounds raised in fuel tax annually
We all talk about who we want to win GE24 but whoever does the problems it will face will be astronomical and the solutions way beyond current political discourse
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
How many ethnic Magyars actually remain in Hungary?
I believe - without Googling - the Magyars are still genetically distinct and identifiable. Certainly their insane language is an extant outlier
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Sandy did you see my post (on Sat I think) re Chris Smith (virologist) explaining why some never get it.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
Or Israel's then Prime Minister, Netanyahu, being all chummy with the antisemitic Orban. Or Trump praising Putin's invasion of Ukraine as smart.
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
The problem with the Treaties is they need unanimous support of the other members to suspend a member state . This is why the relationship between Poland and the EU is now key as to what happens .
Sorry for being pedantic, but when you say it Needs unanimous support, does that include the nation in question, i.e. des it need the support of all the other nation, and the nation that might be Kicked out or just all the others?
The Council has to minus the offending member agree unanimously that there has been a breach of the Treaties . Only then can certain rights be suspended . The current EU Treaties have no mechanism to expel a member . Sadly the opposition in Hungary waited too long over several election cycles to act , and did so when the dice were heavily loaded against them .
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
it is interesting so I would be interested in other people knowledge and thoughts.
A couple of thoughts, Stalin/Russia really did not like the poles and treated them very badly in WW2 and while under the Cold war Occupation, amongst other things the minister of defence of Poland had to be a citizen of USSR and not polish, and more importantly lots of killings. with Hungary, I don't think the soviets cared much, the Hungarians know that Hungary had been a German alie in the war, so we in a way just relieved that there occupation after the war was not even worse. this might have led to difent levels of inbuilt hostility towards Russia?
Unlikely - the tweet is identical to the one put out every week so you cannot read anything into it. All the current evidence suggests polling stability.... for now.
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
An interesting question is whether Zhang is value at 1.01 on Betfair given he is 1/500 with the satchel-swingers. Anyway, good luck.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Sandy did you see my post (on Sat I think) re Chris Smith (virologist) explaining why some never get it.
can you repost? I am beginning to think my own superpowers include a godlike immunity.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Some folk seemed to have known all along. Well, that’s the impression they give now..
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
How many ethnic Magyars actually remain in Hungary?
I believe - without Googling - the Magyars are still genetically distinct and identifiable. Certainly their insane language is an extant outlier
Agree about the language. AIUI Finnish or Estonian are about the closest. Is there another?
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Yes, touch wood will be better by next weekend. I also had dodged it until now but seems we will all probably get it at some stage
Unlikely - the tweet is identical to the one put out every week so you cannot read anything into it. All the current evidence suggests polling stability.... for now.
Yes but there should not be polling stability. Rishi Sunak has delivered the worst budget spring statement since Osborne's omnishambles, yet the Conservatives amble along at 33 or 34 per cent in the polls.
I'd be slightly wary of anti-Rishi spin in writing him off, at least till there is evidence he is hurting the government.
Unlikely - the tweet is identical to the one put out every week so you cannot read anything into it. All the current evidence suggests polling stability.... for now.
I cannot see a conservative lead in this climate and RedfieldWilton advertise their poll every week in this manner
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
It is one of the rare cases where "people warned about this" is not in anyway an exaggeration. Normally when people say there were warnings they mean a few and often relatively obscure people might have voiced some opposition. In this case lots of people warned about the dangers of dependency on Russian energy, giving Russia leverage on Europe, and particularly in the context of Russian invasion or attacks on neighbouring states. That Germany and Italy, and others, did not hede those warnings reflects very badly on them.
Now in no way does any of this excuse Putin's actions. The blame resides almost entirely upon him. This is a war of his choice. That said it would be a lot easier to counter Russia if Europe wasn't relying on Russia to keep the lights on.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Granddaughter seems to have been positive for ca. 10 days!
Hopefully will not last that long and best wishes to your granddaughter
Comments
Thanks.
In Russia, it appears to me that process of democratisation never happened. It effectively ceased after the storming of the Duma in 1993. The soviet system looks like it was simply reinvented with Russian nationalism replacing socialism as the guiding ideology. The end of the cold war was just the loss of non-Russian soviet satellite states. The war in Ukraine is a continuation of this process. This explains why Russia is acting the way it is. It is a war that it is losing.
But I agree that Crimea was the right moment to draw a line - the kinds of sanctions we have now should have happened then.
I guess a lot of people, including me, thought Putin wouldn't be so stupid as to do something that would be so disastrous for Russia as a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power!
Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there.
DYOR as ever.
If you want help in a war then make sure you've got clout on TikTok is the lesson to be learned.
Putin has a huge approval right now domestically although plenty of thinking Russians disagree strongly with what's happening. However any nation, no matter how much in the "wrong" they are, would rally round if they perceived they were under attack by a foreign actor.
(State actor, I mean, not Will Smith.)
1914-2019 will be the subject of History courses in the future. Assuming anyone is around.
When you combine that with satellite photography, and radar tracking down to individual vehicles from E-8 and related systems, the Russians must be an open book to whoever has that combined data set.
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
There were certainly good arguments against direct intervention, but pursuing business as usual with Russia was a big foreign policy mistake, made by governments both right and left in Europe and the US.
You could build both. But when you have one tidal lagoon, nuclear will never make economic sense again.
I've put on the 10p Betfair allowed me.
https://conversations.berkeley.edu/bobbit_2011
"Focusing on the case of twentieth century conflicts, Bobbitt explains how in this epoch--which lasted from the First World War to the collapse of the Soviet Union-- fascism, communism and liberal democracy competed, with liberal democracy emerging triumphant at the end of the century. After comparing the essential features of the nation state with the market state, Bobbitt focuses on the intervention in Libya and the response to Iran's nuclear programs highlighting the dilemmas they pose for the Obama administration caught in the transition from nation state to market state."
* Definitely extend the life of existing nuclear plants where possible to deal with current emergency.
Fortunately, a minority view.
Looks as if he has near extinguished his leadership chancers with his seriously poor budget
https://www.conservativehome.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Cabinet-League-Table-Mar-22.png
If an election was held today...
LAB: 284 MPs (+82)
CON: 273 (-92)
LDEM: 14% (+3)
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1510889910693154822?s=20&t=V0QIF7MZnjlH4gL3lefXPQ
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1510891091704401922?s=20&t=V0QIF7MZnjlH4gL3lefXPQ
After all, I believe Kyiv, as Kiev, was the original capital of what we now know as Russia.
That this "living map" of data is being generated, I have little doubt. The question is what is being passed to the Ukrainians.
During the Falklands war, incidentally, the NSA was breaking the Argentinian codes in real time. In fact, because the Argentinians were using hand operated wheel cypher machines, and the NSA had computerised breaking the codes, they were teleprintering decrypts to the UK faster than the Argentines were reading their own messages.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1510609394597310469
He is still fav next con leader betfair, layable at 5.8
Sympathies for your loss.
"Yes it's true. I'm afraid to say that I am the latest MP to test positive. I'm certainly not the first Tory that has and won't be the last.
I'd like to reassure my legions of fans that I'm doing well, resting and in good spirits."
Look after yourself.
Sympax
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/04/electric-car-journey-shows-buyers-must-beware/
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
@benrileysmith
·
52m
Plummeting Rishi. Sunak drops to third bottom in ConHome’s new cabinet minister rankings (based on the views of Tory members). Spring Statement taking its toll.
Reagan was right then, and right now. Lob one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YtCUC9Oc2Q
But yes, there is still a problem with charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, and leaving it to the market, even though things are slowly improving, has been unsatisfactory except for Tesla owners.
"This week, Grant Shapps announced a target of 300,000 more chargers across the country by 2030, the year when the Government says it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel powered cars. Fatally, he’s left it to local authorities to make sure the roll-out happens. Mark my words, it won’t. Not without national direction.
My advice is this. If you only do relatively short journeys, then buying an electric car is a good decision. If you regularly travel more than 150 miles, it isn’t. In my experience, the car manufacturers lie about the expected range. My electric car is supposed to do 298 miles. The reality is that it does 206, or 215 if the weather is warm."
My take: you are fine with an electric car if you don't really need a car at all. like London dwelling politicians.
And Orban is a wannabe Putin, as well, of course.
None of this is cheap, or quick to build. Necessary? Absolutely. But it’s not something that the government can turn around and build out in a year across the nation.
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
EV as a concept appears to be a big step back for many, especially for that occasional longer journey which now requires serious planning. Imagine what the roads down to Cornwall look like on a summer’s Friday evening, as thousands of EVs from the Home Counties all run out of charge in the same place.
How about a "can't go anywhere cos I can't afford the petrol anxiety" or "my direct debit on my Council Tax failed anxiety" article or two?
Same people want us not to rely on foreign fuels. Whilst moaning about owt that brings that a little closer.
Today, and every Monday, at 5pm, we will release our latest poll.
Who will be leading in this week's poll? And by how much?
Follow us @RedfieldWilton to be the first to find out.
Ooh? Tory lead?
He had plugged it into his garage power socket to charge it overnight, as he said that an electrician had indicated that his electric wiring would not be capable of using a fast charger and as his supply was joint with next door his next doors neighbour's drive would need to be excavated, this just after they have had a complete replacement drive installed in the last few weeks
The theory on EV s is fine, but the practice is not so and also how does a Chancellor replace the 35 billion pounds raised in fuel tax annually
We all talk about who we want to win GE24 but whoever does the problems it will face will be astronomical and the solutions way beyond current political discourse
A couple of thoughts, Stalin/Russia really did not like the poles and treated them very badly in WW2 and while under the Cold war Occupation, amongst other things the minister of defence of Poland had to be a citizen of USSR and not polish, and more importantly lots of killings. with Hungary, I don't think the soviets cared much, the Hungarians know that Hungary had been a German alie in the war, so we in a way just relieved that there occupation after the war was not even worse. this might have led to difent levels of inbuilt hostility towards Russia?
Well, that’s the impression they give now..
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
budgetspring statement since Osborne's omnishambles, yet the Conservatives amble along at 33 or 34 per cent in the polls.I'd be slightly wary of anti-Rishi spin in writing him off, at least till there is evidence he is hurting the government.
Now in no way does any of this excuse Putin's actions. The blame resides almost entirely upon him. This is a war of his choice. That said it would be a lot easier to counter Russia if Europe wasn't relying on Russia to keep the lights on.