On topic there are lots of Somethings that can be done and haven't yet but they have trade-offs or political unpopularity, that's why they haven't been done yet. If we're serious about this we need to let politicians do the unpopular things.
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
The west has to stand up to this tyrant. In my opinion that means backing Zelensky with a No Fly Zone but we may need to do more.
Yes it's a risk but for the sake of humanity we have to stand with Ukrainians. It doesn't matter if they are or are not in this or that organisation like NATO or the EU. They are in the human race.
I know this view is very unpopular on here but, with respect, I pay more heed to Zelensky and the people of Ukraine and their call for us to do more.
I tend these days to only watch benign gentle programmes, especially in the evenings. Ben Fogle's New Lives in the Wild is a favourite but I've also started watching the David Attenborough back catalogue which are such wonderful programmes. Oh and the delectable Michael Palin of course. Better people. A better world.
I tend these days to only watch benign gentle programmes, especially in the evenings. Ben Fogle's New Lives in the Wild is a favourite but I've also started watching the David Attenborough back catalogue which are such wonderful programmes. Oh and the delectable Michael Palin of course. Better people. A better world.
A false world. Entertainment, not reality. Or at least a sanitised version of reality, orchestrated to make people feel happy rather than really inform.
Not sure there is a win for us here. Keep supporting Ukraine for the length of time they have the will to fight. Crack down on Russia. And their apologists. Try to increase the West's supply of energy. And, crucially, reduce our demand also. Avoid taking Putin's talking points seriously. And resist the very real temptation to use them as domestic wedge issues. There's not much more we can sensibly do. The government is doing some of them well. Others not so.
There is no good solution...all involve pain and some sadly involves the sacrifice of hundreds of thousands of ukrainians
In the words of Ukraine, “Russian off-ramp, fuck off”.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
I tend these days to only watch benign gentle programmes, especially in the evenings. Ben Fogle's New Lives in the Wild is a favourite but I've also started watching the David Attenborough back catalogue which are such wonderful programmes. Oh and the delectable Michael Palin of course. Better people. A better world.
A false world. Entertainment, not reality. Or at least a sanitised version of reality, orchestrated to make people feel happy rather than really inform.
I've taught all over the world and have learned quite a lot in my time. I've experienced the heights and lows of human behaviour as well as nature in all its rich tapestry: not quite as stark as Tennyson would have us believe but certainly at times not benign. So if that's what you are driving at, then to that extent I agree.
However, reality is also the world you make yourself. You can live in a commuter rat-race, consumerist, consumptionist, world alongside people who are also taught that this is the way to be. But I don't, again with respect, get the impression that many of them are terribly happy. There is so much antagonism, anger and, well, gnashing of teeth. Their reality is one in which they seem to me to obsess about things they are incapable of changing: absorbed in news feeds and social media, tweets and the latest dark coverage of dark behaviour. That's the reality in which they find themselves but it only seems to make them unhappy. Look at how much anger there is on here, and keyboard violence to others whom they have never met.
By getting back to nature, away from the rat race, I find a reality that is truly real. A rhythm of life that is far more real than the entrapped one in which most western people live. You can, to a large extent, choose your reality. It's not escapism except in the sense of escaping from a society that seems to me to be desperately unhappy.
I spend a lot of time in contemplative meditation and find a reality there that soars (for me) far higher and deeper than any of the fracas of modern life.
I will be returning to SE Asia before too long to live alongside my fellow Buddhist practitioners and closer to reality. Truly living.
Not enough is being proposed about how to ramp up the propaganda war. There’s a sickness in Russian society and we need to start thinking creatively about how to cure it. 21st century equivalent of plane loads of leaflets. Ordinary Russians need to be bombarded with the horrors they are underpinning every time they switch on an electronic device.
7 new nuclear power plants? Where? In places where folk lose their shit over a windmill? And in how many decades?
The mini-nukes are fairly small. The existing nuclear plants have huge areas of land around them. The obvious idea has always been to site them on the exiting nuclear plant locations.
Unit price of that first mini-nuke please? Life span? Down time? Novel engineering elements? Source of parts? Fuel? Abandonment cost? Planning consent required? Minimum electricity price required? Total taxpayer/customer subsisdy required per life of unit?
Please could we also agree where to site the high level nuclear waste storage facility that we have needed for 40+ years? It will need to be deep enough underground to survive a couple of ice ages.
Never really got into Peaky Blinders, but thoughts of perhaps doing so extinguished with reporting that the final season has been crap and then comes the climax of the whole show....
We knew things were about to get weird because the musical director had just treated us to the strains of a Radiohead side-project.
russia brought mobile crematoria, 45k body bags, and new instructions on digging mass graves to a conflict they thought they'd win essentially without casualties.
that does not raise questions about what they intended to do once they took ukrainian territory. it answers them.
I struggle to think of a context for which 'mass grave instructional manual writer' would be a job a thinking human being would willingly take up. Pandemic preparation technician perhaps.
OTOH people become chiropodists without compulsion
russia brought mobile crematoria, 45k body bags, and new instructions on digging mass graves to a conflict they thought they'd win essentially without casualties.
that does not raise questions about what they intended to do once they took ukrainian territory. it answers them.
I struggle to think of a context for which 'mass grave instructional manual writer' would be a job a thinking human being would willingly take up. Pandemic preparation technician perhaps.
OTOH people become chiropodists without compulsion
Are you suggesting they have a tendoncy to masochism?
russia brought mobile crematoria, 45k body bags, and new instructions on digging mass graves to a conflict they thought they'd win essentially without casualties.
that does not raise questions about what they intended to do once they took ukrainian territory. it answers them.
I struggle to think of a context for which 'mass grave instructional manual writer' would be a job a thinking human being would willingly take up. Pandemic preparation technician perhaps.
OTOH people become chiropodists without compulsion
Are you suggesting they have a tendoncy to masochism?
You should read my posts figuratively, not au pied de la lettre
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
As grim as all this is, I am optimistic about the situation in Ukraine.
Firstly, it has stayed on the front of newspapers and is still the focus of public attention a month on. In almost any other time, these horrors would have gone on but everyone would have started ignoring them by now as the become a niche interest amongst journalists and activists.
Secondly, Ukraine appear to have had some success and done some damage to Russian military capabilities. Stating the obvious but this is a massive, historic, achievement against massive odds.
Thirdly, whilst there is some fraying around the edges, there is still a large amount of resolve within the west to deal with Russia. There is no 'Putin sympathy'. It won't come back after this. Backsliding by the germans etc is met with a chorus of derision.
Fourth, the sophisticated image that Putin tries to project has been totally debunked. They are merely thugs who quote bits of Dostoyevsky to confuse and flatter stupid people.
Fifth, It looks like Finland will join NATO in the next few months. The whole political establishment in Finland has turned against Russia. And there is nothing Putin can do about it aside from the likely cyber attack/power cuts. He is tied up in the quagmire in Ukraine. This will be NATO a couple of hundred kilometres from St Petersburg.
Sixth, this is a democratic renaissance in Europe. There is a complete and total renewal of its fundamental purpose.
Seventh, there is a renewed sense of purpose in NATO and within European states of the importance of defence, reflected in commitments to greater spending.
There are other reasons as well. The response to Russia in 2022 is a very different to that of 2014. Europe seems to have finally moved on from its decadence and cowardice, which is very positive. It feels like the start of a historic paradigm shift, which may ultimately save us.
Understandably other bits of the uploaded speeches will be of more interest internationally, but I wonder what this part from Zelensky is about?
I would also like to say a few words to those politicians, some deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine who absolutely do not understand what is happening in the hearts of our people. They don't understand it so much that they even decided to change the national anthem. I have a question for these people: what have you done in your life to give you the moral right to change the words of the anthem? Are you outstanding poets? Maybe you excelled in the battles for Ukraine? Or now is such a time that you can change the anthem whenever you want?
Cool down emotions. Stop pretending to be fools. I believe that the authors of these and other similar bills, proposals, should take up arms and go to the battlefield, if you have these opportunities. Only there will you understand something.
I don't know, but wonder if somebody has come up with a new verse of the national anthem possibly with a line 'the Russians are all smelly idiots' such a line might be very popular at the moment, but its not going to look good oversees or make it easier to have a peace treaty. so unhelpful even if popular.
Wow really, the russians are torturing, killing bound civillians and raping women and you are complaining about a change in a line of the national anthem is going to make peace harder.....really you need to get a grip
Not enough is being proposed about how to ramp up the propaganda war. There’s a sickness in Russian society and we need to start thinking creatively about how to cure it. 21st century equivalent of plane loads of leaflets. Ordinary Russians need to be bombarded with the horrors they are underpinning every time they switch on an electronic device.
The Russians will be the last people on Earth to accept the obscenities their military are perpetrating in Ukraine. Because the rest of the world already knows...
For the Russians to accept it, they also have to accept that the last 80 years have not moved them one inch nearer civilised norms. Except, if anything they have moved backwards. At least 80 years ago, they were expelling an evil force that invaded their land. This time, they have become that evil.
Also bear in mind putin might have planned these atrocities deliberately to drag the west in and increase his popularity
So you think he is deliberately setting up atrocities and you still want to reward him?
I think there is no point continuing to argue with you.
Don,t feed the troll
Are these Russian trolls acting as part of Putin’s apparatus or in an attempt by competing interests in Russia to undermine him? It’s not always clear given the drivel they come out with.
Never really got into Peaky Blinders, but thoughts of perhaps doing so extinguished with reporting that the final season has been crap and then comes the climax of the whole show....
We knew things were about to get weird because the musical director had just treated us to the strains of a Radiohead side-project.
Ukraine must be supported and Russia must be defeated.
It is as simple as that. The West is doing quite a lot but it can and needs to do more and quickly. Unfortunately many more Ukrainians will die and suffer first.
Also bear in mind putin might have planned these atrocities deliberately to drag the west in and increase his popularity
So you think he is deliberately setting up atrocities and you still want to reward him?
I think there is no point continuing to argue with you.
Don,t feed the troll
Are these Russian trolls acting as part of Putin’s apparatus or in an attempt by competing interests in Russia to undermine him? It’s not always clear given the drivel they come out with.
My friend on FB is wittering on, asking questions about why Germany did not object to Ukraine's violations of the Minsk agreements in 2015. As if that's valid, or even the most important topic to discuss with everything that's going on. It's another example of people trying to excuse Russia by blaming everyone else - Ukrainian 'Nazis', the west, anyone but Russia - for the evil.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Well, if Germany is preventing them even having armoured cars.... They can have a few helmets (and hope the Russian snipers aren't shooting in the groin for shits n giggles.)
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
On topic there are lots of Somethings that can be done and haven't yet but they have trade-offs or political unpopularity, that's why they haven't been done yet. If we're serious about this we need to let politicians do the unpopular things.
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
Interesting idea about a deal with China. Not sure how much scope there is for that. Iran - definitely and the US in particular needs to work on India and the rest of the MIddle East, but that will take time.
In the short term we will reduce demand for Russian fossil fuels by consuming less. There is no other way, but governments aren't talking about it. It needs to be coordinated. It's no good saying Germany needs to stop buying Russian fuels but we don't need to bother, or the other way round. We are sourcing alternatives from the same places.
Not enough is being proposed about how to ramp up the propaganda war. There’s a sickness in Russian society and we need to start thinking creatively about how to cure it. 21st century equivalent of plane loads of leaflets. Ordinary Russians need to be bombarded with the horrors they are underpinning every time they switch on an electronic device.
The Russians will be the last people on Earth to accept the obscenities their military are perpetrating in Ukraine. Because the rest of the world already knows...
For the Russians to accept it, they also have to accept that the last 80 years have not moved them one inch nearer civilised norms. Except, if anything they have moved backwards. At least 80 years ago, they were expelling an evil force that invaded their land. This time, they have become that evil.
The English speaking Russians I’ve met have always been pleasant and kind, whether in Russia or overseas. I have had some very able to explain the appeal of Putinism, which was always seen by them as neo-Stalinism, through the prism of their own fears and insecurities. Those people will be the easiest to shake out of Putin’s tree.
For the majority, it’s pertinent to look east. I’ve seen some interesting transformations among Chinese, with a quite incredible shift in perspective before and after they moved outside the bounds of the Great Firewall. Usually it’s the diplomatic cables on Tiananmen that do it. The moment comes perhaps a year after moving overseas when they tend to stop blathering incoherently about the Nine Dash Line, quietly throw away their Party membership card and begin enquiries on permanent foreign residence.
Information can achieve a lot by itself. In the case of Russians, it needs to be combined with providing a security guarantee. The echoes of Evil Empire language are still heard.
There is a path to Russia becoming a part of modern Europe but it’s a long term project and of course not happening without a major change at the top. I worry too that the young in Russia might be even more infected by the sickness than the middle aged and old, with no memory of the realities of the glorious communist empire and a higher use of social media. How was the indoctrination of Hitler Youth undone? Draw those lessons and reframe in the 21st century. It’s as important, even more so perhaps, than sending more weapons to Ukraine and stopping hydrocarbon exports.
Trouble is that it’s bloody hard thankless work. We already saw in the last 20 years how the West preferred the use of daisy cutters to combatting Islamist propaganda. A blacksmith approaches every problem with a hammer and all that…
Well to combat Putin the West needs to ramp up defence spending and strongly defend Eastern Europe and plan accordingly. We cannot let Ukraine become the new Sudetenland.
We need to ramp up the sanctions both economic and cultural.
Oh, and the UK government need to sort out the sanctions against the oligarchs, right now they are ineffective.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
Well to combat Putin the West needs to ramp up defence spending and strongly defend Eastern Europe and plan accordingly. We cannot let Ukraine become the new Sudetenland.
We need to ramp up the sanctions both economic and cultural.
Oh, and the UK government need to sort out the sanctions against the oligarchs, right now they are ineffective.
No, we need sanctions that impair the Russian economy. I doubt Putin cares who owns Chelsea or some impounded gin palaces.
On topic there are lots of Somethings that can be done and haven't yet but they have trade-offs or political unpopularity, that's why they haven't been done yet. If we're serious about this we need to let politicians do the unpopular things.
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
Interesting idea about a deal with China. Not sure how much scope there is for that. Iran - definitely and the US in particular needs to work on India and the rest of the MIddle East, but that will take time.
In the short term we will reduce demand for Russian fossil fuels by consuming less. There is no other way, but governments aren't talking about it. It needs to be coordinated. It's no good saying Germany needs to stop buying Russian fuels but we don't need to bother, or the other way round. We are sourcing alternatives from the same places.
It's not going to make a significant difference in the short term, and I don't think it's an alternative to defeating Putin on the ground.
But it is a strategy the western alliance should be pursuing anyway, as energy dependence leaves Europe deeply vulnerable to Russian influence and blackmail. It is time for greatly increased government investment into renewables and energy efficiency. If such a program were coordinated across both EU and NATO, as a matter of collective security, it could speed the day when we are freed from dependence on oil rich authoritarians.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
Well to combat Putin the West needs to ramp up defence spending and strongly defend Eastern Europe and plan accordingly. We cannot let Ukraine become the new Sudetenland.
We need to ramp up the sanctions both economic and cultural.
Oh, and the UK government need to sort out the sanctions against the oligarchs, right now they are ineffective.
I'm not disagreeing, as it's not an area I know anything about. How are they ineffective (in fact, what effect are they supposed to have?), and how can they be tightened?
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Well to combat Putin the West needs to ramp up defence spending and strongly defend Eastern Europe and plan accordingly. We cannot let Ukraine become the new Sudetenland.
We need to ramp up the sanctions both economic and cultural.
Oh, and the UK government need to sort out the sanctions against the oligarchs, right now they are ineffective.
I'm not disagreeing, as it's not an area I know anything about. How are they ineffective (in fact, what effect are they supposed to have?), and how can they be tightened?
I pointed out at the time that Liz Truss and others were determined to grab headlines rather than follow the usual protocols in announcing sanctions that it would give the sanctions of targets opportunities to circumvent them.
We also have things like this.
A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the UK says he no longer owns many former properties, potentially putting them beyond the reach of the law.
Ex-Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov's £82m London home and Surrey mansion were put into trusts linked to the oligarch.
This raises questions over the effectiveness of sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine began.
The UK government says Mr Usmanov "cannot access his assets".
On 3 March, seven days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Alisher Usmanov was added to the list of sanctioned Russian businessmen.
His assets were frozen, he was banned from visiting the UK, and British citizens and businesses were banned from dealing with him.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We will hit oligarchs and individuals closely associated with the Putin regime and his barbarous war.”
The government said sanctions would cut him off from “significant UK interests including mansions worth tens of millions”.
But this is now in doubt because Mr Usmanov’s spokesman says he is no longer the legal owner of many of those assets.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
Just a little note; Kazakhstan has been making the 'right' noises wrt Ukraine; saying tis troops will not take part in Russia's war, and that it will abide by the sanctions. The president has also proposed laws that will restrict his powers.
This is actually a rather big deal, given Kazakhstan's reliance on, and proximity to, Russia. *If* this turns out to be the case, when the war ends civilised nations should perhaps view Kazakhstan with a bit more favour.
Russia's main space launch facility is in Kazakhstan, and sadly it looks as though Russia's space program is going to be massively reduced now. Perhaps the west could look at using Kazakhstan's space launch facilities?
My own surmise, is that President Biden already knew - based on US/NATO/UKR intelligence - that these headlines were coming, that atrocities were happening with more coming.
Partly by deliberate design, and partly from lack of effective command & control. Paradox like the CoE?
No gaffe calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with his willing henchpeople.
Instead, warning and indictment.
It may not have been deliberate - it was unscripted but we can’t tell if it was planned unscripted or not - but he would have been aware & I can see why that was front of mind as a description when he was asked
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
This is just an unknown. I started to look in to Orban a few years ago. There is zero serious analysis on Orban's Hungary - no objective studies or books written about him. All just propoganda on both sides, as far as I could see. If anyone disagrees and can recommend something, I would like to know.
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
Not sure there is a win for us here. Keep supporting Ukraine for the length of time they have the will to fight. Crack down on Russia. And their apologists. Try to increase the West's supply of energy. And, crucially, reduce our demand also. Avoid taking Putin's talking points seriously. And resist the very real temptation to use them as domestic wedge issues. There's not much more we can sensibly do. The government is doing some of them well. Others not so.
Which one of your list above do you think the government isn’t doing well?
I suppose you could argue sanctions (although the detail is more favourable to the Uk than the headlines) but since they have bugger all effect on Putin…
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Very sorry to hear that David. Condolences to you and your family.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
I am so sorry to hear your sad news
Condolences to you and your family and take all the time you need
Bereavement is an intense emotion which my son in law is also experiencing having lost his mother last week
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
With the abandonment of the north by Russia, there are fewer logistical issues/risks in terms of getting supplies of arms to Ukraine. One of the original ideas on the part of the Russians was to cut these supplies.
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
The Ukrainians have the kit and weaponry to defend and make sure Russian invasion is at an untenable cost. The way in for that kit has been from the west; where it has done the job of beating the Russians back. That kit now starts moving south and east through Ukraine. Fifty guys on fast motorbikes, with an NLAW strapped on the back and with the finest intelligence on where to go, can start hitting anywhere on Russian supply lines.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
On topic there are lots of Somethings that can be done and haven't yet but they have trade-offs or political unpopularity, that's why they haven't been done yet. If we're serious about this we need to let politicians do the unpopular things.
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
Interesting idea about a deal with China. Not sure how much scope there is for that. Iran - definitely and the US in particular needs to work on India and the rest of the MIddle East, but that will take time.
In the short term we will reduce demand for Russian fossil fuels by consuming less. There is no other way, but governments aren't talking about it. It needs to be coordinated. It's no good saying Germany needs to stop buying Russian fuels but we don't need to bother, or the other way round. We are sourcing alternatives from the same places.
It's not going to make a significant difference in the short term, and I don't think it's an alternative to defeating Putin on the ground.
But it is a strategy the western alliance should be pursuing anyway, as energy dependence leaves Europe deeply vulnerable to Russian influence and blackmail. It is time for greatly increased government investment into renewables and energy efficiency. If such a program were coordinated across both EU and NATO, as a matter of collective security, it could speed the day when we are freed from dependence on oil rich authoritarians.
I don't propose reducing demand for Russian fuel as an alternative to defeating Russia on the ground or for supporting Ukraine more generally.
If you reduce demand for fuel you not only free up scarce resources for more essential uses, you also lower the price, which gives people less incentive to break sanctions and pay good money for Russian fuel. Governments could initiate publicity campaigns to reduce fuel consumption and consider some mild forms of rationing, but largely aren't. This is a day one measure that would have the biggest immediate effect on the Russian government's money supply.
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
With the abandonment of the north by Russia, there are fewer logistical issues/risks in terms of getting supplies of arms to Ukraine. One of the original ideas on the part of the Russians was to cut these supplies.
There are significant problems getting kit to the fronts in the east and south, once in Ukraine. Particularly if Russian aircraft can fly almost unmolested.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
My condolences.
Thanks. I am not looking for sympathy. I am just conscious that I am having more negative thoughts and feelings than normal. I look at some of my posts on here and think, did I really think that?
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
The Ukrainians have the kit and weaponry to defend and make sure Russian invasion is at an untenable cost. The way in for that kit has been from the west; where it has done the job of beating the Russians back. That kit now starts moving south and east through Ukraine. Fifty guys on fast motorbikes, with an NLAW strapped on the back and with the finest intelligence on where to go, can start hitting anywhere on Russian supply lines.
There are so many aspects to this. On yours, the point is that the Russian supply lines in the east and south are *much* shorter; and there are fewer of the ridiculous linear salients they had on the push to Kyiv, and which were so easy for the Ukrainians to attack.
In addition, the Ukrainians will have to keep some forces in the north, to protect against the Russians or Belarussians coming back in that way - although hopefully western intelligence will be able to give them some warning of that.
But the Ukrainians also have less front to defend as the lines have shortened.
BTW, I hope Lukashenko will be seen off for his role in this mess. Even if his troops have not actively taken part in the invasion, he has let his country be a springboard for it - and it looks as though he probably would have taken part if his army had not rebelled. Kazakhstan has taken a much more responsible role.
But as always: IANAE, and as dear Heathener would say, I am an 'armchair general...
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
It's a lot more than just the gas situation. Since the second world war the only real combat operation the German military has had was Afghanistan - and even that was unintentional as they thought they were going to a part of the country where they wouldn't have to do any actual fighting, though it didn't work out that way. Germany famously refused to take part in the NATO Libya operation (unlike all kinds of countries like Greece, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium etc). So there is a very different attitude to any kind of involvement in any wars, compared to countries like the UK or the US or France, which have had loads of military interventions in foreign countries (with mixed success, of course).
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
My condolences.
Thanks. I am not looking for sympathy. I am just conscious that I am having more negative thoughts and feelings than normal. I look at some of my posts on here and think, did I really think that?
It is weird how your mood affects your thinking.
So sorry to hear your news.
You are completely right on your points. The fight against evil never stops, but we should do we can do.
The problem for Ukraine now is that the Russian troops in the south are probably a higher standard than the ones in the north and will prove more difficult to dislodge. One hopes that greater professionalism may mean fewer war crimes being committed there. Giving the civil disobedience in Kherson already apparent I just hope the Russiann troops start to feel that it isn't worth it.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
The Ukrainians have the kit and weaponry to defend and make sure Russian invasion is at an untenable cost. The way in for that kit has been from the west; where it has done the job of beating the Russians back. That kit now starts moving south and east through Ukraine. Fifty guys on fast motorbikes, with an NLAW strapped on the back and with the finest intelligence on where to go, can start hitting anywhere on Russian supply lines.
There are so many aspects to this. On yours, the point is that the Russian supply lines in the east and south are *much* shorter; and there are fewer of the ridiculous linear salients they had on the push to Kyiv, and which were so easy for the Ukrainians to attack.
In addition, the Ukrainians will have to keep some forces in the north, to protect against the Russians or Belarussians coming back in that way - although hopefully western intelligence will be able to give them some warning of that.
But the Ukrainians also have less front to defend as the lines have shortened.
BTW, I hope Lukashenko will be seen off for his role in this mess. Even if his troops have not actively taken part in the invasion, he has let his country be a springboard for it - and it looks as though he probably would have taken part if his army had not rebelled. Kazakhstan has taken a much more responsible role.
But as always: IANAE, and as dear Heathener would say, I am an 'armchair general...
Belarus falling out of Putin's orbit would be a huge win for the West. One can hope the guys and gals at Langley are working all the angles to make that happen. Lukashenko is as much a pustule on "democracy" as Putin. His replacement, by a genuine democratically supported leader, shouldn't be that impossible - the people are already there. His Ceaucescu moment is already overdue.
Russia robbed of a Belarusian doormat makes any further adventure into Ukraine that much tougher.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
No mention of the Welsh Government, suggesting this project is still at the stage of Boris doodling on the back of an envelope, rather than a serious proposal.
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
This is just an unknown. I started to look in to Orban a few years ago. There is zero serious analysis on Orban's Hungary - no objective studies or books written about him. All just propoganda on both sides, as far as I could see. If anyone disagrees and can recommend something, I would like to know.
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
Not yet. But I strongly suspect that there is going to be a lot less tolerance of Orban in the EU after this. We have seen, vividly, where this leads. And we should be backing the EU up 100% by the way.
If Hungary wants the benefits of access to western markets and prosperity it needs to play by the rules. Not for the first time I rue the loss of Alastair Meeks on this platform.
If anyone else has insight I would welcome them sharing it.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
No mention of the Welsh Government, suggesting this project is still at the stage of Boris doodling on the back of an envelope, rather than a serious proposal.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Oh David I'm so very sorry. With all best wishes to you all.
Understandably other bits of the uploaded speeches will be of more interest internationally, but I wonder what this part from Zelensky is about?
I would also like to say a few words to those politicians, some deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine who absolutely do not understand what is happening in the hearts of our people. They don't understand it so much that they even decided to change the national anthem. I have a question for these people: what have you done in your life to give you the moral right to change the words of the anthem? Are you outstanding poets? Maybe you excelled in the battles for Ukraine? Or now is such a time that you can change the anthem whenever you want?
Cool down emotions. Stop pretending to be fools. I believe that the authors of these and other similar bills, proposals, should take up arms and go to the battlefield, if you have these opportunities. Only there will you understand something.
I don't know, but wonder if somebody has come up with a new verse of the national anthem possibly with a line 'the Russians are all smelly idiots' such a line might be very popular at the moment, but its not going to look good oversees or make it easier to have a peace treaty. so unhelpful even if popular.
Wow really, the russians are torturing, killing bound civillians and raping women and you are complaining about a change in a line of the national anthem is going to make peace harder.....really you need to get a grip
Some Ukrainian deputies proposed it and Zelensky said it was a stupid idea. That’s what the discussion was about
Ukraine must be supported and Russia must be defeated.
It is as simple as that. The West is doing quite a lot but it can and needs to do more and quickly. Unfortunately many more Ukrainians will die and suffer first.
Not quite as simple.
Russia must be defeated. And she must be *seen* to be defeated. Not quite the same thing.
Ukraine must be supported and Russia must be defeated.
It is as simple as that. The West is doing quite a lot but it can and needs to do more and quickly. Unfortunately many more Ukrainians will die and suffer first.
Not quite as simple.
Russia must be defeated. And she must be *seen* to be defeated. Not quite the same thing.
Actually that was what I meant by "defeated". You are only defeated if you think you are.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
Since the second world war the only real combat operation the German military has had was Afghanistan -
German Air Force flew 600+ SEAD/AGM-88 missions over Kosovo in 1999.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Very sorry to hear that David. Condolences to you and your family.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
The argument over the migs maybe provides a useful distraction while ever-increasing supplies of other weapons are shipped to Ukraine (it was even suggested in German media that the whole debate was artificially created for this very reason, no idea how plausible that is). And if, as the article suggests, they could be useful for spare parts - spare parts could be got to Ukraine without shipping the actual planes.
So, Orban. Does anyone believe that he really won or has Hungary slipped away from the family of democratic nations? Whilst a member of the EU. In receipt of EU finance. Supposedly subject to the rule of law.
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
This is just an unknown. I started to look in to Orban a few years ago. There is zero serious analysis on Orban's Hungary - no objective studies or books written about him. All just propoganda on both sides, as far as I could see. If anyone disagrees and can recommend something, I would like to know.
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
Not yet. But I strongly suspect that there is going to be a lot less tolerance of Orban in the EU after this. We have seen, vividly, where this leads. And we should be backing the EU up 100% by the way.
If Hungary wants the benefits of access to western markets and prosperity it needs to play by the rules. Not for the first time I rue the loss of Alastair Meeks on this platform.
If anyone else has insight I would welcome them sharing it.
I agree with that but I also think we need to shift more to classical liberalism which was more realistic about managing illiberal and traditional ideas up to a point. In other words tolerance of disparate viewpoints as long as they are not imposed on others or diminish the rights of others. There is an illiberal edge to discourse in the so called liberal West at the moment that feeds Orban and similar characters.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
Yes, it's looking a much better deal now. I doubt electricity is going to go below £92.50 again (although there might be gotchas buried in the contract that make it a bad deal). Initially I was pro-Hinkley Point; then marginally against. I haven't looked into the situation for a few years now, but I'm probably in favour now, given the need to diversify and secure out energy sources.
And BTW, so sorry to hear your news. It's hard to know what to say at such times, but hope you're back to your normal cheery self soon.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
The argument over the migs maybe provides a useful distraction while ever-increasing supplies of other weapons are shipped to Ukraine (it was even suggested in German media that the whole debate was artificially created for this very reason, no idea how plausible that is). And if, as the article suggests, they could be useful for spare parts - spare parts could be got to Ukraine without shipping the actual planes.
The other day I did wonder if Poland, Estonia etc could be used as a repair area for Ukrainian tanks and machinery. It might be very helpful to the Ukrainians.
Or even as training areas (it wouldn't surprise me if that was already happening...)
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
Since the second world war the only real combat operation the German military has had was Afghanistan -
German Air Force flew 600+ SEAD/AGM-88 missions over Kosovo in 1999.
True, I'll give you that as a second combat operation.
I think the mentality that needs to be adopted is that we are at war with the Russian regime but hare not engaging directly (yet?) due to nuclear capabilities. The public need to have their revulsion at Russian actions harnessed to the need for some economic sacrifices. No deal unless clearly a Russian defeat.
When similar genocides took place in Syria, Rwanda, Cambodia and indeed Bosnia we did very little. In Yemen too a pretty brutal civil war is going on now and again the West does not do much. When we did intervene in Afghanistan and Iraq and Kosovo and Libya to stop the atrocities committed by the Taliban, Saddam against the Kurds and the Serbs and Gaddaffi we were often heavily criticised for it and it did not always turn out perfectly.
Yes the scenes in Ukraine are awful and yes the West should continue to send aid and supplies to the Ukrainians. However there is no question of military intervention in terms of NATO troops and jets being sent to fight the Russians unless Putin attacks a NATO nation or NATO military forces
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
It's a lot more than just the gas situation. Since the second world war the only real combat operation the German military has had was Afghanistan - and even that was unintentional as they thought they were going to a part of the country where they wouldn't have to do any actual fighting, though it didn't work out that way. Germany famously refused to take part in the NATO Libya operation (unlike all kinds of countries like Greece, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium etc). So there is a very different attitude to any kind of involvement in any wars, compared to countries like the UK or the US or France, which have had loads of military interventions in foreign countries (with mixed success, of course).
There is something about German politicians that they hate making decisions. If the decision is forced on them they can be quite relieved. They are coming across as very reluctant to support Ukraine whereas Johnson is happy to make a song and dance about his support. I am not sure Germany is overall doing a lot less than the UK - both could do more. Germany after all is providing Ukraine with tanks, if less than they asked for, while the UK isn't.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
Actually, it has mainly been Conservative governments building (and subsidising) Britain's nuclear power stations.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
That's a good question. It would be very easy in retrospect to point to the poisoning of Litvinenko in 2006, or various other events, as being obvious turning points, when perhaps it was not so reasonable to view them as such at the time.
I think the annexation of Crimea - in very clear contravention of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine - was the moment. When a country repudiates an agreement it has made with other countries in the past then it devalues any future agreements that might be made with that country. So there is no basis on which it is possible to do business with them.
The same argument applies to China. The crushing of dissent in Hong Kong, the repudiation of the one country, two systems agreement on the handover of Hong Kong from the British, is the moment when it is clear that China does not recognise the value of being part of the rules-based international system. They will do as much as they think they can get away with - so we have to be prepared to not allow them to get away with things, by reducing our economic dependence on them, and having the military capability to deter aggression.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
It is still a massively higher strike price than is available elsewhere (notably tidal lagoons).
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
I am slightly sceptical about your claims wrt tidal lagoons - I think the pricings are optimistic (as to be fair, is often the case with fans and proposers of infrastructure projects).
Ukraine needs aircraft, it needs longer range missiles, and it needs tanks. Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
Which systems are you talking about that are 'entirely feasible' for the Ukrainians to deploy 'without lengthy training' ?
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
There are Russian AA systems in multiple NATO countries; ditto numbers of tanks. And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
I can't say about the MIG issue, but it would not surprise me if it was difficult give they've had decades of alterations for different (western) weapons systems and avionics. We were discussing moving UK Eurofigthers to Poland yesterday, and the problems with that; I bet the MIGs would be much, much harder.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
The argument over the migs maybe provides a useful distraction while ever-increasing supplies of other weapons are shipped to Ukraine (it was even suggested in German media that the whole debate was artificially created for this very reason, no idea how plausible that is). And if, as the article suggests, they could be useful for spare parts - spare parts could be got to Ukraine without shipping the actual planes.
The other day I did wonder if Poland, Estonia etc could be used as a repair area for Ukrainian tanks and machinery. It might be very helpful to the Ukrainians.
Or even as training areas (it wouldn't surprise me if that was already happening...)
Estonia is not that close to Ukraine, its over 1100km from Tallinn to the Ukrainian border. Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and several other countries as well as Poland are a lot close than Estonia.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Sorry to hear that, David. Sympathies to you and yours.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
And the unit cost of electricity? £92.50 again, eh Kwasi?
I have to say when May agreed the deal for Hinckley Point and that strike price I was of the view that it jumped right to the top of her long list of catastrophic errors. In fairness to her it looks a lot less ridiculous now.
Yes, it's looking a much better deal now. I doubt electricity is going to go below £92.50 again (although there might be gotchas buried in the contract that make it a bad deal). Initially I was pro-Hinkley Point; then marginally against. I haven't looked into the situation for a few years now, but I'm probably in favour now, given the need to diversify and secure out energy sources.
And BTW, so sorry to hear your news. It's hard to know what to say at such times, but hope you're back to your normal cheery self soon.
Remember that the Hinkley Point C strike price is adjusted in line with inflation. So it was £92.50 in 2012, but that is £116.22 in 2021, and higher again this year.
That may still be a good deal compared to the current wholesale price, but the inflation adjustment obviously makes a big difference.
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
No mention of the Welsh Government, suggesting this project is still at the stage of Boris doodling on the back of an envelope, rather than a serious proposal.
This is not doodling on the back of an envelope, this is very much in the news here in North Wales and has been for some time
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
Comments
Twenty-five miles plus in all directions of nothing but more & more fresh-water marsh. Also lots of bugs & gators.
Stray far, and you'll be lucky if some hunters find you . . . eventually . . .
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
@oryxspioenkop
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9h
My backlog of destroyed and captured Russian equipment also has three backlogs of itself.
The west has to stand up to this tyrant. In my opinion that means backing Zelensky with a No Fly Zone but we may need to do more.
Yes it's a risk but for the sake of humanity we have to stand with Ukrainians. It doesn't matter if they are or are not in this or that organisation like NATO or the EU. They are in the human race.
I know this view is very unpopular on here but, with respect, I pay more heed to Zelensky and the people of Ukraine and their call for us to do more.
I tend these days to only watch benign gentle programmes, especially in the evenings. Ben Fogle's New Lives in the Wild is a favourite but I've also started watching the David Attenborough back catalogue which are such wonderful programmes. Oh and the delectable Michael Palin of course. Better people. A better world.
What's wrong with 'exit'? Or 'way out?'
As an English teacher I shudder but hey ho.
https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1510692059862036482?s=21&t=M3L-8Z-tf21HPH-8Ynpyxg
Supplying numbers of these, which are immediately usable without lengthy training, is entirely feasible if western countries cooperate.
It should be done immediately.
However, reality is also the world you make yourself. You can live in a commuter rat-race, consumerist, consumptionist, world alongside people who are also taught that this is the way to be. But I don't, again with respect, get the impression that many of them are terribly happy. There is so much antagonism, anger and, well, gnashing of teeth. Their reality is one in which they seem to me to obsess about things they are incapable of changing: absorbed in news feeds and social media, tweets and the latest dark coverage of dark behaviour. That's the reality in which they find themselves but it only seems to make them unhappy. Look at how much anger there is on here, and keyboard violence to others whom they have never met.
By getting back to nature, away from the rat race, I find a reality that is truly real. A rhythm of life that is far more real than the entrapped one in which most western people live. You can, to a large extent, choose your reality. It's not escapism except in the sense of escaping from a society that seems to me to be desperately unhappy.
I spend a lot of time in contemplative meditation and find a reality there that soars (for me) far higher and deeper than any of the fracas of modern life.
I will be returning to SE Asia before too long to live alongside my fellow Buddhist practitioners and closer to reality. Truly living.
https://mobile.twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1510738510193565711
I don't think there are any aircraft that immediately meet those requirements. The Polish MIG-29's are apparently rather different beasts now to the ones Ukraine fly.
Tanks and BMPs etc might be a different matter.
SAMs might also be a different matter.
Firstly, it has stayed on the front of newspapers and is still the focus of public attention a month on. In almost any other time, these horrors would have gone on but everyone would have started ignoring them by now as the become a niche interest amongst journalists and activists.
Secondly, Ukraine appear to have had some success and done some damage to Russian military capabilities. Stating the obvious but this is a massive, historic, achievement against massive odds.
Thirdly, whilst there is some fraying around the edges, there is still a large amount of resolve within the west to deal with Russia. There is no 'Putin sympathy'. It won't come back after this. Backsliding by the germans etc is met with a chorus of derision.
Fourth, the sophisticated image that Putin tries to project has been totally debunked. They are merely thugs who quote bits of Dostoyevsky to confuse and flatter stupid people.
Fifth, It looks like Finland will join NATO in the next few months. The whole political establishment in Finland has turned against Russia. And there is nothing Putin can do about it aside from the likely cyber attack/power cuts. He is tied up in the quagmire in Ukraine. This will be NATO a couple of hundred kilometres from St Petersburg.
Sixth, this is a democratic renaissance in Europe. There is a complete and total renewal of its fundamental purpose.
Seventh, there is a renewed sense of purpose in NATO and within European states of the importance of defence, reflected in commitments to greater spending.
There are other reasons as well. The response to Russia in 2022 is a very different to that of 2014. Europe seems to have finally moved on from its decadence and cowardice, which is very positive. It feels like the start of a historic paradigm shift, which may ultimately save us.
For the Russians to accept it, they also have to accept that the last 80 years have not moved them one inch nearer civilised norms. Except, if anything they have moved backwards. At least 80 years ago, they were expelling an evil force that invaded their land. This time, they have become that evil.
It is as simple as that. The West is doing quite a lot but it can and needs to do more and quickly. Unfortunately many more Ukrainians will die and suffer first.
And the problems of transferring the MIGs are I think exaggerated.
In the short term we will reduce demand for Russian fossil fuels by consuming less. There is no other way, but governments aren't talking about it. It needs to be coordinated. It's no good saying Germany needs to stop buying Russian fuels but we don't need to bother, or the other way round. We are sourcing alternatives from the same places.
For the majority, it’s pertinent to look east. I’ve seen some interesting transformations among Chinese, with a quite incredible shift in perspective before and after they moved outside the bounds of the Great Firewall. Usually it’s the diplomatic cables on Tiananmen that do it. The moment comes perhaps a year after moving overseas when they tend to stop blathering incoherently about the Nine Dash Line, quietly throw away their Party membership card and begin enquiries on permanent foreign residence.
Information can achieve a lot by itself. In the case of Russians, it needs to be combined with providing a security guarantee. The echoes of Evil Empire language are still heard.
There is a path to Russia becoming a part of modern Europe but it’s a long term project and of course not happening without a major change at the top. I worry too that the young in Russia might be even more infected by the sickness than the middle aged and old, with no memory of the realities of the glorious communist empire and a higher use of social media. How was the indoctrination of Hitler Youth undone? Draw those lessons and reframe in the 21st century. It’s as important, even more so perhaps, than sending more weapons to Ukraine and stopping hydrocarbon exports.
Trouble is that it’s bloody hard thankless work. We already saw in the last 20 years how the West preferred the use of daisy cutters to combatting Islamist propaganda. A blacksmith approaches every problem with a hammer and all that…
We need to ramp up the sanctions both economic and cultural.
Oh, and the UK government need to sort out the sanctions against the oligarchs, right now they are ineffective.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
But it is a strategy the western alliance should be pursuing anyway, as energy dependence leaves Europe deeply vulnerable to Russian influence and blackmail.
It is time for greatly increased government investment into renewables and energy efficiency. If such a program were coordinated across both EU and NATO, as a matter of collective security, it could speed the day when we are freed from dependence on oil rich authoritarians.
I might agree with the AA systems. And Germany's attitude throughout this has stunk wrt tanks and weapons.
Although I do wonder if we'd be singing the tune we are at the moment if we relied so heavily on Russian gas...
He looks like a mini Putin to me. The west have really had their eye off the ball in recent years. It’s been self indulgent in the extreme. Including us.
We also have things like this.
A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the UK says he no longer owns many former properties, potentially putting them beyond the reach of the law.
Ex-Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov's £82m London home and Surrey mansion were put into trusts linked to the oligarch.
This raises questions over the effectiveness of sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine began.
The UK government says Mr Usmanov "cannot access his assets".
On 3 March, seven days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Alisher Usmanov was added to the list of sanctioned Russian businessmen.
His assets were frozen, he was banned from visiting the UK, and British citizens and businesses were banned from dealing with him.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: “We will hit oligarchs and individuals closely associated with the Putin regime and his barbarous war.”
The government said sanctions would cut him off from “significant UK interests including mansions worth tens of millions”.
But this is now in doubt because Mr Usmanov’s spokesman says he is no longer the legal owner of many of those assets.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60825983
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
Michael Kofman has been of the 'don't underestimate Russia' point of view from the start. However he now sees their military prospects as pretty bleak. The confusing thing is how asymmetric the conflict now is. The Ukrainians have got the numbers but the Russians have the kit and weaponry.
This is actually a rather big deal, given Kazakhstan's reliance on, and proximity to, Russia. *If* this turns out to be the case, when the war ends civilised nations should perhaps view Kazakhstan with a bit more favour.
Russia's main space launch facility is in Kazakhstan, and sadly it looks as though Russia's space program is going to be massively reduced now. Perhaps the west could look at using Kazakhstan's space launch facilities?
My own view is that there is an existential danger that 'liberal democracy' is defined in such a way that it becomes a utopian project that is irreconcilable with political realities in large parts of Europe. The extreme narratives of individual rights conflict with cultural traditions that tend more towards the collective.
There are hard decisions. If the price of confronting Putin is to tolerate Orban's apparent 'racism', then perhaps that is a price worth paying. With freedom of movement, no one is trapped in Hungary.
I suppose you could argue sanctions (although the detail is more favourable to the Uk than the headlines) but since they have bugger all effect on Putin…
Condolences to you and your family and take all the time you need
Bereavement is an intense emotion which my son in law is also experiencing having lost his mother last week
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/03/16/not-brain-science-heres-how-the-ukraine-fighter-swap-could-work/
If you reduce demand for fuel you not only free up scarce resources for more essential uses, you also lower the price, which gives people less incentive to break sanctions and pay good money for Russian fuel. Governments could initiate publicity campaigns to reduce fuel consumption and consider some mild forms of rationing, but largely aren't. This is a day one measure that would have the biggest immediate effect on the Russian government's money supply.
It is weird how your mood affects your thinking.
In addition, the Ukrainians will have to keep some forces in the north, to protect against the Russians or Belarussians coming back in that way - although hopefully western intelligence will be able to give them some warning of that.
But the Ukrainians also have less front to defend as the lines have shortened.
BTW, I hope Lukashenko will be seen off for his role in this mess. Even if his troops have not actively taken part in the invasion, he has let his country be a springboard for it - and it looks as though he probably would have taken part if his army had not rebelled. Kazakhstan has taken a much more responsible role.
But as always: IANAE, and as dear Heathener would say, I am an 'armchair general...
At Wylfa, site of a decommissioned plant. Set to get tens of millions from taxpayer to develop. Ministers discussing with US.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/03/anglesey-backed-location-first-new-wave-nuclear-power-plants/
It’s proposed by two US firms (Westinghouse and Bechtel) which matches the UK push for nuclear to be with ‘like-minded’ allies (ie not the Chinese state).
Simon Hart + Kwasi Kwarteng both invited to US embassy last Tuesday to discuss. Hart pursuing interest in US trip this week
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
You are completely right on your points. The fight against evil never stops, but we should do we can do.
Russia robbed of a Belarusian doormat makes any further adventure into Ukraine that much tougher.
If Hungary wants the benefits of access to western markets and prosperity it needs to play by the rules. Not for the first time I rue the loss of Alastair Meeks on this platform.
If anyone else has insight I would welcome them sharing it.
https://twitter.com/AliFortescue/status/1510883343822381058
Russia must be defeated. And she must be *seen* to be defeated. Not quite the same thing.
And BTW, so sorry to hear your news. It's hard to know what to say at such times, but hope you're back to your normal cheery self soon.
Or even as training areas (it wouldn't surprise me if that was already happening...)
Hinkley C still requires a £37 billion bung from taxpayers/electricity consumers. The idea that the Government can keep doing this with nuclear deal after nuclear is just unacceptable.
No nuclear power station has been built anywhere on the planet without massive state subsidies. That a Conservative Government should willingly do so is all the more galling.
Yes the scenes in Ukraine are awful and yes the West should continue to send aid and supplies to the Ukrainians. However there is no question of military intervention in terms of NATO troops and jets being sent to fight the Russians unless Putin attacks a NATO nation or NATO military forces
ETA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
I think the annexation of Crimea - in very clear contravention of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine - was the moment. When a country repudiates an agreement it has made with other countries in the past then it devalues any future agreements that might be made with that country. So there is no basis on which it is possible to do business with them.
The same argument applies to China. The crushing of dissent in Hong Kong, the repudiation of the one country, two systems agreement on the handover of Hong Kong from the British, is the moment when it is clear that China does not recognise the value of being part of the rules-based international system. They will do as much as they think they can get away with - so we have to be prepared to not allow them to get away with things, by reducing our economic dependence on them, and having the military capability to deter aggression.
But why not do both nuclear and tidal lagoons?
That may still be a good deal compared to the current wholesale price, but the inflation adjustment obviously makes a big difference.