World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
An interesting question is whether Zhang is value at 1.01 on Betfair given he is 1/500 with the satchel-swingers. Anyway, good luck.
2-0 Zhang already. You can see why I ain't a professional gambler.
Gas is the big one. May be a move coming from European countries.
Surely that will.just cut our nose off to spite our face
Yes, you're right. We should buy MORE gas and oil from Russia. That'll show them, the bastards.
Well do you really want your energy bills to soar even more....
If it means stopping buying Russian gas and oil, then yes. I'll pay it. I'll have to tell the wife to stop buying take out coffee. That'll easy cover the increase (you don't know how much my wife spends a day on that stuff.... I trust you, her stopping that will easily cover a 100% increase!).
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
How many ethnic Magyars actually remain in Hungary?
I believe - without Googling - the Magyars are still genetically distinct and identifiable. Certainly their insane language is an extant outlier
Agree about the language. AIUI Finnish or Estonian are about the closest. Is there another?
Sami (Lapland), Karelian, and quite a few languages spoken in the Russian Federation.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Salisbury was the trigger for me - it suggested a global recklessness which we're unused to in superpowers (yes, Trump sounded reckless but he didn't do that much abroad), and totally different from the "sober" image that Putin projects. That was a dangerous sign of unpredictability, now writ large.
If I am completely honest, I think it is only now that it has actually become clear. It isn't the alleged genocide, we've seen all that from other dictators - not least the conduct of the Chinese in Xinjiang, and we carry on doing business with them. The problem with Putin is the territorial claims on large parts of Europe and willingness to conduct violent territorial invasions to satiate them. This danger has only truly just come to light, although the warning signs were there in Ukraine for 8 plus years.
I would suggest too that the history of Ukraine and Russia were so intertwined...... and I don't mean just in the later Tsarist and Soviet era ...... that some confusion over who is really what and owns which is understandable. After all, I believe Kyiv, as Kiev, was the original capital of what we now know as Russia.
There's been no real confusion since Ukraine was a separate socialist republic after WWII.
What is now Ukraine certainly has a complicated history - largely as either peasant vassals of various foreign hegemonies (Muscovy; the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth; Austria Hungary; Poland; Germany; the USSR) or a battleground for them - but a Ukrainian identity long predates its independence in the 1990s.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
I did read that there are a number of ethnic Hungarians in Ukranian Transcarpathia, how much effect that has domestically I dunno.
When similar genocides took place in Syria, Rwanda, Cambodia and indeed Bosnia we did very little.
They didn't have very good memes so fuck them, appears to be the line of thought.
If you want help in a war then make sure you've got clout on TikTok is the lesson to be learned.
Surely it's more that humanitarian interventionism is an unpopular foreign policy and has had pretty mixed success when tried? In the case of Russia vs Ukraine and countering Putin's imperialism, there is obvious national interest that just doesn't exist in getting too heavily involved in civil wars in Yemen, sub-Sahara etc... Namely that left unchecked in Ukraine, Putin has given every indication that he would thereafter threaten the territorial integrity of Nato members.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Salisbury was the trigger for me - it suggested a global recklessness which we're unused to in superpowers (yes, Trump sounded reckless but he didn't do that much abroad), and totally different from the "sober" image that Putin projects. That was a dangerous sign of unpredictability, now writ large.
If I am completely honest, I think it is only now that it has actually become clear. It isn't the alleged genocide, we've seen all that from other dictators - not least the conduct of the Chinese in Xinjiang, and we carry on doing business with them. The problem with Putin is the territorial claims on large parts of Europe and willingness to conduct violent territorial invasions to satiate them. This danger has only truly just come to light, although the warning signs were there in Ukraine for 8 plus years.
I would suggest too that the history of Ukraine and Russia were so intertwined...... and I don't mean just in the later Tsarist and Soviet era ...... that some confusion over who is really what and owns which is understandable. After all, I believe Kyiv, as Kiev, was the original capital of what we now know as Russia.
Not exactly… Muscovy was founded by a group of settlers from Kyiv but that was in the days before nations as we know them today
We can also take the disapproval of Orban’s Hungary too far. It is not Switzerland or Sweden. But it is not Iran, Russia or China, either
Well, Not yet.
its worth noting Obran, used his victory speech to criticise Zelensky by name, that's pretty harsh, And is banning any plains from carrying supplies for Ukraine from flying over Hungary, which is just mean.
I'm not an expert in how to tern your democracy in to a dictatorship, but I think the first chapter is about flooding your nation with pro-government media, to minimise the Free/independent media, and he seems to be doing this.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
We averted our eyes in Rwanda for too long to our shame. We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia. Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons. I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
You're a glass-half-empty man.
We can often do significantly better. And we can't do everything. But the idea that it's uncharacteristic for us to try, or to be well-intentioned when we do, is wrong.
You only have to compare us with the Russian and Chinese alternatives.
It’s been a difficult week. My brother died a week past Friday. Cancer. I will hopefully be back to my cheery self shortly.
My condolences.
Thanks. I am not looking for sympathy. I am just conscious that I am having more negative thoughts and feelings than normal. I look at some of my posts on here and think, did I really think that?
It is weird how your mood affects your thinking.
Sorry to hear about your brother @DavidL. Very sad news.
I wouldn't worry about your posts. As you know I think you are one of the best posters here for clearly thought out opinions.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
How many ethnic Magyars actually remain in Hungary?
I think Hungary is fairly monocutural, all the ethnically mixed bits were given away to other countries after WW1 and 2. Of course the Hungarians see themselves as swaggering horse soldiers from the Steppe, the reality is probably that they were fairly mixed to start with and then combined with whatever local population was left after the Huns.
Ongoing support for hybrid engines would probably be more popular with the electorate than the deification of electric cars to the total exclusion of petrol.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Granddaughter seems to have been positive for ca. 10 days!
Hopefully will not last that long and best wishes to your granddaughter
Same for my daughter. She was positive for more than 10 days, but wasn't unwell. Get well soon.
Talking of Turkey, I am right now in Erdogan’s insanely expensive, enormous, glamorous new Istanbul airport.
In terms of scale and gleam and the like, it is deeply impressive. Better than your UAE airports, and even bigger
However in the entire domestic terminal, which is about 5 square miles, there is just one tiny kiosk where you can get an alcoholic drink. I know they hide the booze away in Doha and the like, but this is maybe even worse
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
Unlikely - the tweet is identical to the one put out every week so you cannot read anything into it. All the current evidence suggests polling stability.... for now.
No it isn't.
Normally they say, "will that lead have increased or decreased"
When similar genocides took place in Syria, Rwanda, Cambodia and indeed Bosnia we did very little.
They didn't have very good memes so fuck them, appears to be the line of thought.
If you want help in a war then make sure you've got clout on TikTok is the lesson to be learned.
Surely it's more that humanitarian interventionism is an unpopular foreign policy and has had pretty mixed success when tried? In the case of Russia vs Ukraine and countering Putin's imperialism, there is obvious national interest that just doesn't exist in getting too heavily involved in civil wars in Yemen, sub-Sahara etc... Namely that left unchecked in Ukraine, Putin has given every indication that he would thereafter threaten the territorial integrity of Nato members.
We tried to intervene in Libya's civil war. The results indicate the difficulties. Defending a sovereign state against foreign invasion is a very much more clearcut venture, both practically and morally.
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
Also SDLP is hard to predict given they are in more direct contention with alliance but they have very strong candidates.
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Some folk seemed to have known all along. Well, that’s the impression they give now..
Speaking for myself, I think you'll find posts on here talking about it for many years, perhaps as far back as 2014. I was certainly (ahem) sceptical of out failure to intervene in Syria, and allowing Russia to do so.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
World snooker qualifying starts today. For those who like a quirky bet. Ukrainian Anton Kazakov, the World Junior Champion, is 33-1 to beat Zhang Anda in the first qualy round today with Paddy Power! Ludicrous price in a two-horse race. Especially at first to only six frames. Everyone in the draw can play. Some hefty odds on individual matches out there. DYOR as ever.
An interesting question is whether Zhang is value at 1.01 on Betfair given he is 1/500 with the satchel-swingers. Anyway, good luck.
2-0 Zhang already. You can see why I ain't a professional gambler.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
The DUP have always been the most transfer unfriendly The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting. We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
I wonder if he had some kind of agreement with Putin that Hungary would get a slice of Ukraine? Modern Ukraine is of course a lot bigger than Hungary.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
We already have.
Indeed, Trump. Though he was not re elected unlike Orban.
If Le Pen does get 47% in the runoff in France later this month that would also match Trump's voteshare in 2016 and 2020 even if Macron likely still narrowly beats her
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
They already did with Trump, arguably.
It's not simply a question of who wins an election, but whether the strengths of the institutions of a given democracy - free press, criminal-justice system, constitition etc - are sufficient to withstand authoritarian assault.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
Oh the US and the West in general misread a lot of the support and apparent realignment after 9/11. A lot of countries were simply happy to get the US off their backs and aimed at their enemies.
A very depressing day for Europe with Orban winning re-election .
The EUs approach of the last few years has failed. Ironically rather than the war in Ukraine helping the opposition it helped Orban .
The Hungarian public seem to be a strange mix of being mainly pro EU but continue to support a leader who is trying to dismantle democracy and the rule of law the very thing that the EU is supposed to represent .
The sub plot here is there is something of a fracture between Poland and Hungary over the war.
Poland also accused of attacking democratic structures seems to be the main player moving forward as its relationship with the EU will determine how much pressure can be put on Hungary as some measures need unanimous support against a member state .
I'm very curious. Why are the Hungarians not, apparently, bothered about Ukraine? Why such a difference in attitude? Is there a historic/cultural/religious explanation. Poland has a right-wing Govt but it has taken a completely different line. Is there a PB expert who can explain?
It is mystifying. Hungary was more repressed by the USSR than Poland. Hungary is not Slavic like Russia, it is Hunnish. Half Finnish. Asiatic. A similar country might be Turkey, also run by a strongman with religious vibes, but the Turks are pro-Ukrainian because they racially empathise with the Crimean Tatars (amongst other things)
I can only presume that it is simply a meeting of styles. One would-be minor autocrat (Orban) sort-of approves of another total major autocrat, Hitler. A bit like Franco sort-of admiring Hitler - yet staying neutral in WW2
I wonder if he had some kind of agreement with Putin that Hungary would get a slice of Ukraine? Modern Ukraine is of course a lot bigger than Hungary.
The Turks are trying to ride both horses, so not sure about the pro-ukr bit?
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
This is correct. However Iraq changed his perception of the West's claim of an international rules-based order, and the ignoring of Russian opposition simultaneously incensed him. That roughly coincided with the era of increasingly ignoring his more liberal advisors, and going down the road of brutal domestic autocracy, rather than just repression in far flung-areas such as Chechnya and Ossetia. The trend wasn't properly solidified until around 2008, though, when he, or most likely his chechen proxies, began disappearing journalists, and he started his cult of personality "judo" videos.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
Oh the US and the West in general misread a lot of the support and apparent realignment after 9/11. A lot of countries were simply happy to get the US off their backs and aimed at their enemies.
Indeed. Putin was simply happy that US attention was turned elsewhere for a few years, towards a different enemy.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Sandy did you see my post (on Sat I think) re Chris Smith (virologist) explaining why some never get it.
can you repost? I am beginning to think my own superpowers include a godlike immunity.
It was on BBC breakfast. Apparently they are researching people who have been surrounded by people with COVID 19 who haven't caught it. A significant number had anti bodies for unrelated coronavirus. They hope this might enable a generic vaccine for all variants of COVID 19. He compared it to cowpox providing a vaccine for smallpox. I haven't had it but it is possible I have been lucky, but I am aware of a couple of people who might as well have been immersed in a vat of it and are still free.
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
The DUP have always been the most transfer unfriendly The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting. We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
I can see Alliance getting 14-16 seats (up from 8 last time) but I wouldn't predict exactly which seats they will gain and if they can pull off 2 in Lagan Valley or not.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
Oh the US and the West in general misread a lot of the support and apparent realignment after 9/11. A lot of countries were simply happy to get the US off their backs and aimed at their enemies.
Indeed. Putin was simply happy that US attention was turned elsewhere for a few years, towards a different enemy.
It was of course turned towards an enemy that "we" thought we could beat easily. That is the defining difference between previous incursions and this one. Hand wringing aside there is simply nothing we can do short of actually calling the nuclear bluff that is likely to arrest the activities we are seeing.
Do I like it? Of course not. Should Putin face sanction, well yes. But we are seeing from the wrong side how the doctrine of might is right plays out.
Talking of Turkey, I am right now in Erdogan’s insanely expensive, enormous, glamorous new Istanbul airport.
In terms of scale and gleam and the like, it is deeply impressive. Better than your UAE airports, and even bigger
However in the entire domestic terminal, which is about 5 square miles, there is just one tiny kiosk where you can get an alcoholic drink. I know they hide the booze away in Doha and the like, but this is maybe even worse
I sense a flaw in Mr Erdogan’s ambitions
I’ll be transiting there three weeks today. I’ve read you have to walk miles….just as well I’ve got a 3 hour layover!
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
That is what is so incredibly disappointing. I can, sort of, understand the mentality of the likes of Orban, Trump, etc., with their little-man admiration of genuine autocrats, but not how they can win elections.
You can diss the Woke without donning a blackshirt, can't you?
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
The DUP have always been the most transfer unfriendly The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting. We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
The DUP are getting 40% of TUV transfers though, even if most UUP transfers are going to the Alliance.
Most Alliance transfers are going to the SDLP, with most SDLP transfers also going to the Alliance, not SF
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
I though we already had a brilliant deal? That funny man with the messy hair told us so.
More seriously, what would a realistic better deal look like? We chose from the menu of options (as in Barnier's Brexit staircase), accepting more bureaucratic market access as the price of freedom to diverge. If the UK decided it wanted to be on a different step, I'm sure that people in Brussels are all ears.
So what does a better deal mean? One where we get the access without following the rules? Even if they like us, why should they undermine their whole trade model to offer us that?
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Some folk seemed to have known all along. Well, that’s the impression they give now..
Speaking for myself, I think you'll find posts on here talking about it for many years, perhaps as far back as 2014. I was certainly (ahem) sceptical of out failure to intervene in Syria, and allowing Russia to do so.
Thanks, I had seen that tweet actually! Been a fan of Depardon for a while. Unworthily when I first saw his photos I'd assumed he'd manipulated the palette in some cases but apparently not. Enough born and bred Glaswegians have said no, that was actually the way it was to confirm that.
There's a twitter account @GrimArtGroup that I follow enthusiastically, I received the most likes and rts ever for a tweet when I posted one of his photos on one of their threads.
Is that again, or are you still? Eldest Granddaughter seems unable to shake it off. Last week was supposed to be an 'in Uni' week and she has some 'out of Uni' interviews etc scheduled this.
I only tested positive on Saturday night so will have it for at least the next few days. Having been triple jabbed symptoms not too bad for me at least, seems mainly a bad cold at the moment
Hopefully you'll shake it off soon.
I seem to have dodged the virus, despite my wife having three bouts in three months.
Sandy did you see my post (on Sat I think) re Chris Smith (virologist) explaining why some never get it.
can you repost? I am beginning to think my own superpowers include a godlike immunity.
It was on BBC breakfast. Apparently they are researching people who have been surrounded by people with COVID 19 who haven't caught it. A significant number had anti bodies for unrelated coronavirus. They hope this might enable a generic vaccine for all variants of COVID 19. He compared it to cowpox providing a vaccine for smallpox. I haven't had it but it is possible I have been lucky, but I am aware of a couple of people who might as well have been immersed in a vat of it and are still free.
This was a long held theory, right back to the original cruse ships where loads got it but not everyone. A pharmacist colleague went two years, including working on ICU, without getting it and was on the cusp of starting on a trial when she tested positive. Its certainly possible that there is some cross immunity, and its possible too that the sheer infectious capacity of omicron BA2 was finally overwhelmed her defences. No symptoms though.
Back in Feb/March 2020 I spent a lot of time with a colleague who had covid, before we realised (he'd been to London, then started complaining about coffee tasting rubbish, had a temperature etc. He tested positive for antibodies in June 2020). I didn't catch it off him. It was original flavour, so less infectious, but I still haven't had covid, that I am aware of.
And with it Goldman Sachs' chances of getting its first alumni PM.
Zahawi now looks a better bet than Sunak to be the first British Asian PM or Tory leader too
I think after the Boris-drama the party will want someone undramatic, solid and competent. I've been (even if I say so myself) tipping Ben Wallace for quite some time, and before Ukraine. Ticks all the boxes for members. And his strengths have been absolutely brought to the fore by Ukraine. He's an absolute shoo-in if the leadership comes up anytime soon.
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
The DUP have always been the most transfer unfriendly The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting. We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
The DUP are getting 40% of TUV transfers though, even if most UUP transfers are going to the Alliance.
Most Alliance transfers are going to the SDLP, with most SDLP transfers also going to the Alliance, not SF
Isn't Sinn Fein more concentrated in strongholds though so we're likely to see them losing hardly any seats now with maybe only 1 or 2 being displaced by Alliance? I can also see People before Profit gaining a 2nd seat in Foyle at the expense of the DUP.
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Grozny and when Blair said he was "comfortable" with him. Which I have just checked was as far back as 2000
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 52m Plummeting Rishi. Sunak drops to third bottom in ConHome’s new cabinet minister rankings (based on the views of Tory members). Spring Statement taking its toll.
I was chatting to my next door neighbour who has bought an MG ev and he said he had been to Betwys Coed on one charge which is just 41 miles round trip
He had plugged it into his garage power socket to charge it overnight, as he said that an electrician had indicated that his electric wiring would not be capable of using a fast charger and as his supply was joint with next door his next doors neighbour's drive would need to be excavated, this just after they have had a complete replacement drive installed in the last few weeks
I put a separate (and illegal) consumer unit in just to handle EV charging as DC leakage from the charger can confuse AC RCDs in the existing consumer unit. I was also ready to bypass the meter for the EV charger, as is the moral duty of an anarchist, but Mrs DA said she'd chuck me out if I did.
This is very impressive for Sinn Fein to be only 1% down on 2017 (and the 7% lead over the DUP is the same as last week's Lucidtalk poll but 3% wider than in February) and I think the protocol protests/loyalist stupidity are now playing into their hands. Also good to see the SDLP staying above 10% at the same time.
Alliance is also the most transfer friendly.
Both SF and SDLP down on 2017, as the DUP are also down but less down than 6 months ago.
Only parties up on the last Stormont election are the Alliance, UUP and TUV on that poll
49.7% of DUP voters are giving the UUP their 2nd preference but only 17% of UUP voters are giving the DUP their 2nd preference:
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
The DUP have always been the most transfer unfriendly The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting. We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
The DUP are getting 40% of TUV transfers though, even if most UUP transfers are going to the Alliance.
Most Alliance transfers are going to the SDLP, with most SDLP transfers also going to the Alliance, not SF
Isn't Sinn Fein more concentrated in strongholds though so we're likely to see them losing hardly any seats now with maybe only 1 or 2 being displaced by Alliance? I can also see People before Profit gaining a 2nd seat in Foyle at the expense of the DUP.
Though any SF losses to the Alliance would be a net loss to Nationalists. I agree PBF may pick up an extra seat as well however
For those imagining there is a compromise with Putin. https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930 An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system" ... "Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
And with it Goldman Sachs' chances of getting its first alumni PM.
Zahawi now looks a better bet than Sunak to be the first British Asian PM or Tory leader too
I think after the Boris-drama the party will want someone undramatic, solid and competent. I've been (even if I say so myself) tipping Ben Wallace for quite some time, and before Ukraine. Ticks all the boxes for members. And his strengths have been absolutely brought to the fore by Ukraine. He's an absolute shoo-in if the leadership comes up anytime soon.
Yes, dull but solid is Wallace. Though I think Boris is safe for now
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Yes what an awful episode that was and there was genuine grief around the Western world. That goodwill's been pissed away now. Before the weekend I found it difficult to cheer the tally of Russian assets destroyed, mostly filled with conscript teenagers. Now I know what a lot of them have been getting up to, it's hard not to harden your view.
Talking of Turkey, I am right now in Erdogan’s insanely expensive, enormous, glamorous new Istanbul airport.
In terms of scale and gleam and the like, it is deeply impressive. Better than your UAE airports, and even bigger
However in the entire domestic terminal, which is about 5 square miles, there is just one tiny kiosk where you can get an alcoholic drink. I know they hide the booze away in Doha and the like, but this is maybe even worse
I sense a flaw in Mr Erdogan’s ambitions
I’ll be transiting there three weeks today. I’ve read you have to walk miles….just as well I’ve got a 3 hour layover!
Actually my transit was fine. But I’ve just done one domestic flight to another. The international terminal is presumably even bigger. But that one might even have a bar
How much fucking coffee does erdogan think we can drink?
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Grozny and when Blair said he was "comfortable" with him. Which I have just checked was as far back as 2000
In his first period though, the repression wasn't really domestic. Chechnya isn't regarded by most Russians as being "home". By 2007-8, though, the independent media at home was also being shut down, and the cult of personality was being started.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
They already did with Trump, arguably.
Pedantically, they (assuming you mean America's voters) didn't vote him in - it was the screwy electoral college that inflicted him on the world.
Not that we can be too superior, given how often Labour under Corbyn led in the opinion polls.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
Can any linguists explain why bots (perhaps just Russian) use ellipses so much? @Dura_Ace?
A former manager used them way to much: "given our deadline is next week....and how slow Eabhal is to actually do anything......."
No idea. They are not common in Russian prose. Maybe a machine translation artefact?
Missing definite/indefinite articles and the present tense conjugations of 'to be' are the most common grammatical slips Russian speakers of English make.
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
I'd agree with that, and argue that it extends beyond Europe. The city/rural divide in much of the world is, I suspect, pronounced, with city dwellers more likely to be culturally progressive and rural dwellers culturally conservative. Towns are somewhere in between. It certainly seems to apply in the USA, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't apply in countries as diverse as Australia and China, for example.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
And with it Goldman Sachs' chances of getting its first alumni PM.
Zahawi now looks a better bet than Sunak to be the first British Asian PM or Tory leader too
I think after the Boris-drama the party will want someone undramatic, solid and competent. I've been (even if I say so myself) tipping Ben Wallace for quite some time, and before Ukraine. Ticks all the boxes for members. And his strengths have been absolutely brought to the fore by Ukraine. He's an absolute shoo-in if the leadership comes up anytime soon.
Wallace will need to explain away his signature on the latest round of army cuts, probably by blaming the last guy.
"The return journey proved to be a disaster. I left Beverley at 9am and arrived home in Kent at 7.45pm. A journey that should have taken four hours lasted an astonishing 10¾. It was a day completely wasted. The problem was that the three fast chargers in Beverley were either in use or didn’t work. So I had to use slow chargers to get to the next fast charger, which was 50 miles away. Range anxiety is a real phenomenon. The whole time you’re looking at the screen in front of you, wondering if you will run out of charge before you reach the next charger. And then what?"
The 2030 shutdown on new ICEs is already a disaster.
There is a very simple solution. Build more chargers and properly maintain them once built. This is a very solvable problem.
he goes on...
"This week, Grant Shapps announced a target of 300,000 more chargers across the country by 2030, the year when the Government says it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel powered cars. Fatally, he’s left it to local authorities to make sure the roll-out happens. Mark my words, it won’t. Not without national direction.
No surprise there, Mr Z. Conservative politicians announce new policies in order to make headlines, not in order to get things done.
If the local authorities fail to implement this roll-out a few years down the line, it will not be Shapps's problem. He will either be prime minister (having created enough headlines) or have failed completely and been shunted off into the Lords.
The rest of us just have to live with the consequences.
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
I though we already had a brilliant deal? That funny man with the messy hair told us so.
More seriously, what would a realistic better deal look like? We chose from the menu of options (as in Barnier's Brexit staircase), accepting more bureaucratic market access as the price of freedom to diverge. If the UK decided it wanted to be on a different step, I'm sure that people in Brussels are all ears.
So what does a better deal mean? One where we get the access without following the rules? Even if they like us, why should they undermine their whole trade model to offer us that?
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
I'd agree with that, and argue that it extends beyond Europe. The city/rural divide in much of the world is, I suspect, pronounced, with city dwellers more likely to be culturally progressive and rural dwellers culturally conservative. Towns are somewhere in between. It certainly seems to apply in the USA, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't apply in countries as diverse as Australia and China, for example.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
And in Russia, where support for Putin is highest away from Moscow.
For those imagining there is a compromise with Putin. https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930 An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system" ... "Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
Sadly, gonna be a lot more war before any kind of peace deal.
For those imagining there is a compromise with Putin. https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930 An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system" ... "Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
They’re getting more explicit about it now but, as far as the Russian authorities are concerned, Ukraine is populated with Russians and Nazis. The ‘operation’ is to get rid of the Nazis, by which they mean anyone opposing the Russian invaders. The large opposition to the invasion, means that there’s more Nazis than they expected.
Never really got into Peaky Blinders, but thoughts of perhaps doing so extinguished with reporting that the final season has been crap and then comes the climax of the whole show....
We knew things were about to get weird because the musical director had just treated us to the strains of a Radiohead side-project.
I tried watching the first episode recently, but was put off by the modern music on a show set in 1919.
The music was brilliant. Have not watched final episodes yet so trying to avoid getting the ending
Tommy prepares to shoot himself, but just before he does he sees a vision of Ruby, his late daughter, who tells him that he is not ill. He looks at a burnt newspaper in the fire to see his personal doctor pictured with Oswald Mosley, prompting Tommy to go after him. He finds and holds the doctor at gunpoint, revealing that Mosley and his allies figured that the only person who could ever kill Thomas Shelby, would be Thomas Shelby himself, with the doctor revealing that he is not ill and will live. As the bells ring for 11 o'clock (Armistice), Tommy fires away from him and walks off. He watches as all his remaining possessions burn and he gets on his horse, riding off into the hills.
The only sanction that will really hurt Russia is the TOTAL exclusion of Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. This will massively hurt the West too. Do western leaders have the guts?
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith · 52m Plummeting Rishi. Sunak drops to third bottom in ConHome’s new cabinet minister rankings (based on the views of Tory members). Spring Statement taking its toll.
I was chatting to my next door neighbour who has bought an MG ev and he said he had been to Betwys Coed on one charge which is just 41 miles round trip
He had plugged it into his garage power socket to charge it overnight, as he said that an electrician had indicated that his electric wiring would not be capable of using a fast charger and as his supply was joint with next door his next doors neighbour's drive would need to be excavated, this just after they have had a complete replacement drive installed in the last few weeks
I put a separate (and illegal) consumer unit in just to handle EV charging as DC leakage from the charger can confuse AC RCDs in the existing consumer unit. I was also ready to bypass the meter for the EV charger, as is the moral duty of an anarchist, but Mrs DA said she'd chuck me out if I did.
I doubt any electrician would be party to such an arrangement, and good to see you are married to a sensible lady
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
I keep thinking back to the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000. That public narrative up to then had been that if we weren't allies of Russia there was at least a degree of friendship between Russia and the West. When Russia rebuffed the intial offers of help from Britain and Norway, and blamed a US submarine at first, it was clear that the relations were a lot frostier than generally realised.
Putin was hugely supportive of the US over 9/11. That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West. That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
This is correct. However Iraq changed his perception of the West's claim of an international rules-based order, and the ignoring of Russian opposition simultaneously incensed him. That roughly coincided with the era of increasingly ignoring his more liberal advisors, and going down the road of brutal domestic autocracy, rather than just repression in far flung-areas such as Chechnya and Ossetia. The trend wasn't properly solidified until around 2008, though, when he, or most likely his chechen proxies, began disappearing journalists, and he started his cult of personality "judo" videos.
I think a big turning point in history was not just 9/11, but the Taliban's decision not to give up Al Qaeda. Imagine another history, one where they had said: "Nope, we cannot condone this even from our co-religionists," and, perhaps lubricated with American money, given up bin Laden, either to the US or a third country?
We would have had no Afghanistan war. There might well have been no Iraq war. After that the changes in history become vaguer, but IMV they would have been big. If only Bush and Omar could both have bent a little more...
As I understand it for a long time the Russian and before that soviet had a massive reserve army, but it was mostly in name only, i.e. you do your conscription time, and then for 10, or 15 years after your name was on a list to say you where in the reserve army, but you did no ongoing training and you had no chose in the matter. equipment was meant to be ready for you to use, but as we have seen a lot of that has not been well malintent.
Last year, the Russians started a new 'reserve' that is more similar to our 'Territorial Army' that is meant to be a half way between the regular army and the traditional reserve army, people are meant to Voltaire for it and receive at lest some on-going training for which they would be paid.
I did know the name of it but cant remember now, perhaps I will look it up, it was meant to eventually reach a size of 60,000 but its not clear how big it is at the moment. it has been speculated that Russia would mobilise whatever it has recruited of this force, but probably do it quaintly so as to not scare the people on the main reserve list. and I suspect that is what's happening, even if this particular report is a bit hard to decipher.
How effective will it be, I don't know but I would be amazed if it was even close to the 60,000 considering it only started last year, but being volantes, I suspect it will be more effective man for man than conscripts.
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
I'd agree with that, and argue that it extends beyond Europe. The city/rural divide in much of the world is, I suspect, pronounced, with city dwellers more likely to be culturally progressive and rural dwellers culturally conservative. Towns are somewhere in between. It certainly seems to apply in the USA, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't apply in countries as diverse as Australia and China, for example.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
Difficult to separate out what is cultural mind. Some of the difference is on a cost/availability matrix. As we see with EV, housing, super fast broadband, public transport choice in education, etc., etc.
One reason for Orban’s success is the perceived, total failure of multiculturalism in Western Europe. Orban is all about defending white, Christian, Hungarian Hungary, as against the disaster further west
And when 47% of French people (it is alleged by polls) are about to vote for an anti-immigrant post-Fascist, one has to ask whether Orban has a point in this instance (however offensive the man and his homophobic moods)
It's pretty clear that being a Putin apologist and proto-fascist isn't a vote lower. Indeed it goes down well with some electorates.
Eventually a western democracy will vote in someone like Orban. It is only a matter of time
They already did with Trump, arguably.
Pedantically, they (assuming you mean America's voters) didn't vote him in - it was the screwy electoral college that inflicted him on the world.
Not that we can be too superior, given how often Labour under Corbyn led in the opinion polls.
Never really got into Peaky Blinders, but thoughts of perhaps doing so extinguished with reporting that the final season has been crap and then comes the climax of the whole show....
We knew things were about to get weird because the musical director had just treated us to the strains of a Radiohead side-project.
I tried watching the first episode recently, but was put off by the modern music on a show set in 1919.
The music was brilliant. Have not watched final episodes yet so trying to avoid getting the ending
Tommy prepares to shoot himself, but just before he does he sees a vision of Ruby, his late daughter, who tells him that he is not ill. He looks at a burnt newspaper in the fire to see his personal doctor pictured with Oswald Mosley, prompting Tommy to go after him. He finds and holds the doctor at gunpoint, revealing that Mosley and his allies figured that the only person who could ever kill Thomas Shelby, would be Thomas Shelby himself, with the doctor revealing that he is not ill and will live. As the bells ring for 11 o'clock (Armistice), Tommy fires away from him and walks off. He watches as all his remaining possessions burn and he gets on his horse, riding off into the hills.
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
I'd agree with that, and argue that it extends beyond Europe. The city/rural divide in much of the world is, I suspect, pronounced, with city dwellers more likely to be culturally progressive and rural dwellers culturally conservative. Towns are somewhere in between. It certainly seems to apply in the USA, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't apply in countries as diverse as Australia and China, for example.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
It applies in most of the developed world yes. Le Pen does best in rural areas, as did Trump. In Australia it was mainly rural Queensland which gave Scott Morrison his biggest vote in 2019. In Canada the Conservatives do best in rural parts of Ontario and largely rural Alberta. In Germany last year the Union's vote held up best in largely rural Bavaria and in the UK the Tories still do best in rural areas and villages, Labour do best in big cities.
Cities only lead if they bring market towns and rural areas and indeed outlying suburbs along with them in terms of prosperity and cultural values.
If they don't and become islands of wealth and prosperity and social radicalism ignoring the rest of the country which trails along behind, poorer and with more traditional values then you get Brexit, Trump, Orban and Le Pen instead
Possibly unfair to Macron, Germany, bang to rights:
Very tough like from the Polish PM this morning on Germany and France. He calls out Macron’s “failed diplomacy” and says German energy policy for past 12 years has put Europe on back foot.
I suspect that there are significant numbers in eastern Eurpean countries where the 'cultural centre ground' is somewhat to the right of western Europe. Indeed in rural parts of most European countries the same will be found. Social media - including PB at times gives a rather skewed take on these matters - hence why some posters are so baffled by countries like Hungary, people like Le Pen, parties like Vox - no 2 in the polls in Spain now and of course not to mentiuon events in the UK in 2016. Of course all these things are not the same in their degree or detail but they really should not surprise.
I'd agree with that, and argue that it extends beyond Europe. The city/rural divide in much of the world is, I suspect, pronounced, with city dwellers more likely to be culturally progressive and rural dwellers culturally conservative. Towns are somewhere in between. It certainly seems to apply in the USA, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't apply in countries as diverse as Australia and China, for example.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
Except when they don't - normally when the push to change is a step too far - and the backlash can be quite severe.
On Russian TV - talk show says Bucha is part of an Anglosaxon campaign to discredit Russia. Macron also gets mentioned for his comments earlier about war crimes. Footage shown on a loop tagged “FAKE” in English.
For those imagining there is a compromise with Putin. https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930 An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system" ... "Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
They’re getting more explicit about it now but, as far as the Russian authorities are concerned, Ukraine is populated with Russians and Nazis. The ‘operation’ is to get rid of the Nazis, by which they mean anyone opposing the Russian invaders. The large opposition to the invasion, means that there’s more Nazis than they expected.
Reading the original - https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html - the writer has come up with a definition of Nazi that "there is neither the main Nazi party, nor the Fuhrer, nor full-fledged racial law".
For those imagining there is a compromise with Putin. https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930 An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system" ... "Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
The talking heads in Russia must be in something of a spot. They are probably far more aware than most Russians of what is ACTUALLY happening. Their natural instincts might be to blame Putin for his stupid war.
But then self-preservation kicks in. So they say something so over the top, only Putin could possibly think they mean it....
Still don't understand why the Germans and Italians thought making themselves reliant on Russian gas was a good idea.
I forget who it was, but someone on here did provide a [link to a?] good explanation.
After WWII the object of economic integration between France and Germany was to make a war between the two countries impossible. After more than 75 years there has been no war between the two countries, and one is now unthinkable. In the previous 75 years there had been three major wars between the two countries.
So the intent was to create such a level of mutual economic dependence that war between Germany [and Europe more generally] and Russia would become impossible. This didn't work, and they should have realised earlier that it wasn't working, but put in those terms it doesn't seem like an entirely ridiculous idea.
When did it become unambiguous that Putin was unambiguously evil, rather than a strongman leader who we didn't like but could understand and do business with? My vague recollection of when he first came to power is it was a bit of a relief after the shambles of the Yeltsin years.
A bit like 1930's comments like "Hurrah for the Blackshirts" or "Dictators are very popular these days. We might want one in England before long"
Grozny and when Blair said he was "comfortable" with him. Which I have just checked was as far back as 2000
Apparently some people would like the UK to be in a political union with Orban's Hungary.
Fortunately, a minority view.
I cannot express my disgust at Orban and how the EU allows Hungary to remain in the EU
Here's an idea, kick out Hungary and do a good deal with the UK !!!!!
I though we already had a brilliant deal? That funny man with the messy hair told us so.
More seriously, what would a realistic better deal look like? We chose from the menu of options (as in Barnier's Brexit staircase), accepting more bureaucratic market access as the price of freedom to diverge. If the UK decided it wanted to be on a different step, I'm sure that people in Brussels are all ears.
So what does a better deal mean? One where we get the access without following the rules? Even if they like us, why should they undermine their whole trade model to offer us that?
Norway style would be fine with me
Thanks. But (recalling the staircase), are you fine with:
ECJ jurisdiction Financial contributions to the Europurse Free movement Ongoing alignment with EEA rules?
Is the UK fine with this? Is Boris fine with this? Is Keir fine with this?
If the UK is content with Norway-style obligations, I'm sure Norway-style access will be easy to negotiate. If the UK isn't content with the obligations, then "a better deal" is just another form of "cake and eat it", which isn't happening.
Comments
You can see why I ain't a professional gambler.
I'll have to tell the wife to stop buying take out coffee. That'll easy cover the increase (you don't know how much my wife spends a day on that stuff.... I trust you, her stopping that will easily cover a 100% increase!).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uralic_languages#/media/File:Uralic_languages_(_ALL_LANGUAGES_).png
What is now Ukraine certainly has a complicated history - largely as either peasant vassals of various foreign hegemonies (Muscovy; the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth; Austria Hungary; Poland; Germany; the USSR) or a battleground for them - but a Ukrainian identity long predates its independence in the 1990s.
Russian 'claims' are essentially imperialist.
https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1510902722203197440?s=21&t=g5KEGFNG4GbPfdTA8rpTYQ
Allegations of sexual assault and cocaine use against a Conservative MP have been referred to MI6 amid concerns among party bosses of a “sting operation” by a hostile foreign state.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/03/tory-mp-david-warburtons-cocaine-sex-assault-allegations-referred/ (£££)
Snow up Warburton's nose from dealers with snow on their boots?
its worth noting Obran, used his victory speech to criticise Zelensky by name, that's pretty harsh, And is banning any plains from carrying supplies for Ukraine from flying over Hungary, which is just mean.
I'm not an expert in how to tern your democracy in to a dictatorship, but I think the first chapter is about flooding your nation with pro-government media, to minimise the Free/independent media, and he seems to be doing this.
I wouldn't worry about your posts. As you know I think you are one of the best posters here for clearly thought out opinions.
https://news.sky.com/story/downing-street-parties-welsh-secretary-says-now-is-not-the-time-for-a-self-indulgent-leadership-contest-even-if-the-pm-is-fined-over-partygate-12582027
In terms of scale and gleam and the like, it is deeply impressive. Better than your UAE airports, and even bigger
However in the entire domestic terminal, which is about 5 square miles, there is just one tiny kiosk where you can get an alcoholic drink. I know they hide the booze away in Doha and the like, but this is maybe even worse
I sense a flaw in Mr Erdogan’s ambitions
That bought him lots of time and kudos with the West.
That it was because it was in his interests, not because he was a supporter of democracy and opponent of terror, doesn't appear to have been much considered.
Normally they say, "will that lead have increased or decreased"
Defending a sovereign state against foreign invasion is a very much more clearcut venture, both practically and morally.
https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1510876311149023232
We could see the unionist tally down if the DUP loses 8-10 seats say and the TUV and UUP both only pick up a couple of seats although TUV is hardest to predict.
Also SDLP is hard to predict given they are in more direct contention with alliance but they have very strong candidates.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-pass/get-your-covid-pass-letter/
But on another note, I came across this ad thought you might like it (though you might already have seen it).
https://twitter.com/MarcDavenant/status/1510517708202336257
The 2.5% TUV to Sinn Fein is ... interesting.
We could see a very good Alliance result. Which would be good.
If Le Pen does get 47% in the runoff in France later this month that would also match Trump's voteshare in 2016 and 2020 even if Macron likely still narrowly beats her
It's not simply a question of who wins an election, but whether the strengths of the institutions of a given democracy - free press, criminal-justice system, constitition etc - are sufficient to withstand authoritarian assault.
Zahawi now looks a better bet than Sunak to be the first British Asian PM or Tory leader too
Do I like it? Of course not. Should Putin face sanction, well yes. But we are seeing from the wrong side how the doctrine of might is right plays out.
You can diss the Woke without donning a blackshirt, can't you?
Most Alliance transfers are going to the SDLP, with most SDLP transfers also going to the Alliance, not SF
https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1510876311149023232?s=20&t=pXW4YXIhObgl6QfiHgdCHg
More seriously, what would a realistic better deal look like? We chose from the menu of options (as in Barnier's Brexit staircase), accepting more bureaucratic market access as the price of freedom to diverge. If the UK decided it wanted to be on a different step, I'm sure that people in Brussels are all ears.
So what does a better deal mean? One where we get the access without following the rules? Even if they like us, why should they undermine their whole trade model to offer us that?
It has begun measures to mobilize reservists, incl privates, sergeants, officers;preferably with combat expc. Material incentives are main motivating factor ("trophies", ie looting)–Gen.Staff https://facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/287368616909557
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1510867060062048260
Unworthily when I first saw his photos I'd assumed he'd manipulated the palette in some cases but apparently not. Enough born and bred Glaswegians have said no, that was actually the way it was to confirm that.
There's a twitter account @GrimArtGroup that I follow enthusiastically, I received the most likes and rts ever for a tweet when I posted one of his photos on one of their threads.
Back in Feb/March 2020 I spent a lot of time with a colleague who had covid, before we realised (he'd been to London, then started complaining about coffee tasting rubbish, had a temperature etc. He tested positive for antibodies in June 2020). I didn't catch it off him. It was original flavour, so less infectious, but I still haven't had covid, that I am aware of.
https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/healthcare-abroad/apply-for-a-free-uk-global-health-insurance-card-ghic/
A former manager used them way to much: "given our deadline is next week....and how slow Eabhal is to actually do anything......."
https://mobile.twitter.com/francska1/status/1510898134481788930
An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today
The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media
Below are a few quotes:
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
"However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system"
...
"Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"...
How much fucking coffee does erdogan think we can drink?
Not that we can be too superior, given how often Labour under Corbyn led in the opinion polls.
Hungary now not letting re supply of weaponry to Ukraine only food and Medicines via Hungary
Missing definite/indefinite articles and the present tense conjugations of 'to be' are the most common grammatical slips Russian speakers of English make.
I'd probably disagree with you on the political implications, though. Where cities lead, rural areas follow.
If the local authorities fail to implement this roll-out a few years down the line, it will not be Shapps's problem. He will either be prime minister (having created enough headlines) or have failed completely and been shunted off into the Lords.
The rest of us just have to live with the consequences.
We would have had no Afghanistan war. There might well have been no Iraq war. After that the changes in history become vaguer, but IMV they would have been big. If only Bush and Omar could both have bent a little more...
Last year, the Russians started a new 'reserve' that is more similar to our 'Territorial Army' that is meant to be a half way between the regular army and the traditional reserve army, people are meant to Voltaire for it and receive at lest some on-going training for which they would be paid.
I did know the name of it but cant remember now, perhaps I will look it up, it was meant to eventually reach a size of 60,000 but its not clear how big it is at the moment. it has been speculated that Russia would mobilise whatever it has recruited of this force, but probably do it quaintly so as to not scare the people on the main reserve list. and I suspect that is what's happening, even if this particular report is a bit hard to decipher.
How effective will it be, I don't know but I would be amazed if it was even close to the 60,000 considering it only started last year, but being volantes, I suspect it will be more effective man for man than conscripts.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1510877249297432581?s=20&t=_mFlF82oVj4vlCNZ05I4jQ
Some of the difference is on a cost/availability matrix.
As we see with EV, housing, super fast broadband, public transport choice in education, etc., etc.
Cities only lead if they bring market towns and rural areas and indeed outlying suburbs along with them in terms of prosperity and cultural values.
If they don't and become islands of wealth and prosperity and social radicalism ignoring the rest of the country which trails along behind, poorer and with more traditional values then you get Brexit, Trump, Orban and Le Pen instead
Very tough like from the Polish PM this morning on Germany and France. He calls out Macron’s “failed diplomacy” and says German energy policy for past 12 years has put Europe on back foot.
https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1510886236524888067
not
...
https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1510920650923327488
So Nazism without the Nazi bit??
Apparently not being pro-Russian = Nazi....
But then self-preservation kicks in. So they say something so over the top, only Putin could possibly think they mean it....
ECJ jurisdiction
Financial contributions to the Europurse
Free movement
Ongoing alignment with EEA rules?
Is the UK fine with this?
Is Boris fine with this?
Is Keir fine with this?
If the UK is content with Norway-style obligations, I'm sure Norway-style access will be easy to negotiate. If the UK isn't content with the obligations, then "a better deal" is just another form of "cake and eat it", which isn't happening.