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Level of educational attainment – the great political divide – politicalbetting.com
Level of educational attainment – the great political divide – politicalbetting.com
One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that the firm always asks polling respondents to state what their level of educational attainment was. I regard that as being particularly important because education has provided a great political divider.
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Such a view was woefully misguided.
But they have since changed. Nord Stream 2 has been binned, Germany is building LNG import terminals, and generators have been told to enter into long term supply contracts with LNG exporters.
Will they get rid of all demand for Russian gas? Probably not. Will they move to a situation where Russia can only cause annoyance by limiting exports? Yep.
Shashank Joshi
@shashj
Treating civilians as combatants on the basis that they haven’t fled a city by your bogus deadline is about as war crime-y as it gets.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1505655988405350403
Plays like a movie trailer - we can but hope the reality is even half like that.
Yes, Ukraine was beautiful, but now it will become great.
If Mad Vlad thinks he will subdue these people then he is even madder than we thought.
Time for the white coats to intervene.
OK my turn: my guess is you are wrong, and if you limited it to proper universities - Oxford and LSE, really - the data would turn sharply right.
I read t'other day that this is because Russia is concentrating its fire on social media in LatAm. India, Africa, Asia. I frankly don't believe this. Public opinion in much of the global south is irrelevant. Sad but true. India is perhaps more germane, but it is not a crucible of rich, powerful opinion like Europe. And Europe has turned, en masse and decisively, against Putin
I suspect it is because the Ukrainians have whipped the Russians, in the social media war, so comprehensively the Russians have abandoned any hope of changing western minds and are indulging in fairly pointless distractions elsewhere, just because it is something to do
Of course one reason the Ukrainians have won THIS theatre of the war is that they so clearly have the truth on their side, and they have all the tragic but powerful videos to prove it
A quick survey of Israeli and Jewish Twitter and Zelensky’s speech seems to have fallen relatively flat.
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1505590656940523528
Anyone who has been supportive of the Russian Regime in the past must be feeling very stupid now.
I'm thinking maybe it shows that a lot of the Russian cyber effort generally was - as Putin claimed - voluntary not directly state-organized. Young, educated Russians do not support the invasion, and you can't win an information war if you're depending on these people.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505664388891557892
Putin is a case where comparison to Hitler isn't overblown. We need him killed.
yet nothing.
SO FAR Russia is proving the paperiest of paper tigers. Let us hope that continues
Constantly referring to this regime as Nazi-like is wrong because it somehow assumes that Russia had to learn all this appalling behaviour from others when the truth is that it has behaved appallingly to its own and other people in exactly this way. It is copying its own playbook not another country's.
Compare the French map of the conflict:
https://twitter.com/Armees_Gouv/status/1505589694880489475
With the British map of the conflict:
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1505498948177432576
Am interested to see how this may play out in upcoming Republican mid-term primaries and subsequent general elections. Esp in states with large Ukrainian American concentrations, including battlegrounds Pennsylvania & Ohio.
Speaking of Ohio, am personally interested in how JD "Hillbilly Elegy" Vance will make out for US Senator in Ohio Republican Primary, scheduled for May 3 but possibly delayed due to court challenge to GOP congressional gerrymander.
For it was Vance who infamously said (on Steve Bannon's podcast), "“I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” He then attempted to "fix" this - on Fucker Carlson Show - by taking same line aired on PB by other Putin apologists, that West was to blame for poking the Bear (I paraphrase).
Result is that Vance was (to coin a phrase) cancelled as keynote speaker at annual Minnesota Republican Party Lincoln-Reagan fundraiser. Talk about poetic justice!
As for Dems, all but a few so-called "Democratic Socialists" are either supporting Ukraine (for real) or keeping their traps shut. The exceptions (such as Ben & Jerry's saying "Biden is fanning the flames of war" just before Putin invaded) getting overall adverse reception from intended audience of fellow lefties.
Of course they are soft-peddling (like Vance) or doing 180 (like _____). Will be interesting to see how this plays in Peoria and other places in 2022 Democratic primaries from sea to shining sea. My guess is not too well, leastways in competitive primary races
"Mariupol will become part of a list of cities that were completely destroyed by war; I don’t need to name them- they are Guernica, Coventry, Aleppo, Grozny, Leningrad""
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-i-saw-i-hope-no-one-will-ever-see-says-greek-diplomat-returning-mariupol-2022-03-20/?taid=6237831952440400013b7e0f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
I'm not sure he means Leningrad. Which survived relatively intact due to the Nazi siege: it was not invaded and conquered. He probably means Stalingrad
But still. Chilling
The Nazis were not the sole embodiment of evil in 20th century Europe. Stalinism and what he got the Soviets to do were quite as evil. Putin may choose to airbrush his and Soviet crimes from history. We in the West should not.
The two-and-a-half-year siege caused the greatest destruction and the largest loss of life ever known in a modern city.[23][68]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad#Effect_on_the_city
Bigger than you might think.
Nobody know 100% of what's happening everywhere, not in the bunkers or battlefronts. What actual % is for different countries and their military analysts, who knows?
The Americans would say "we have pacified Area 32 of the Mekong Delta and are now in full control". What that meant was: our soldiers have driven down Highway 32 in the Mekong Delta and wiped out any Viet Cong who attacked us
As soon as the Yanks departed Highway 32, the VC would flood back in the night, infiltrate the villages, and start attacking the Americans, all over again
You cannot occupy and defeat a nation which is completely committed to getting rid of you, unless you are prepared to go full Roman Empire (or Stalin/Hitler) - total genocide and deportation of populations
Is Putin ready to do this? Is Russia?
Maybe Putin is, I doubt Russia is
It simply resonates quite strongly given Russia's own justifications about their opponents, wilfully blind to the fact that the shadow they purport to be chasing is the one they are casting.
I understand there has traditionally been residual Russian sympathy in some parts of Greek society. One presumes that’s another casualty of Putin’s atrocities.
I just note that there is still among some a reluctance to acknowledge the enormity of Soviet Russia's crimes. It's as if the worst evil man could do has to be by definition Nazi. It's lazy and inaccurate thinking.
It is also partly a reflection of age, only about 10% of over 60s are graduates compared to about 40% of under 30s and obviously as the Tories do best with pensioners and Labour with young people that will be reflected in the voting intention figures.
Electoral Calculus do a more up to date calculation than the Guardian's, which is over a decade old, of education level in each constituency, taking account of the number of voters with both A levels and a degree. Though obviously with similar results
Pointing out that PUTIN is the real Nazi here, is NOT playing his game, instead it's calling his bluff.
And does NOT deflect from obvious linkages Czarist Autocracy > Soviet Communism > Putin National Neo-Communism.
Which from a hearts-and-minds perspective viz-a-viz Russian people, is probably NOT very persuasive for average Russians. In a nation where Stalin is still a national icon, for a nation that takes its icons VERY seriously. Methinks sanctions & economics will have more & better effect than history & political science lessons . . . from foreigners.
Here's the worst air raid they suffered:
"The air attack of Friday, 19 September was particularly brutal. It was the heaviest air raid Leningrad would suffer during the war, as 276 German bombers hit the city killing 1,000 civilians. Many of those killed were recuperating from battle wounds in hospitals that were hit by German bombs. Six air raids occurred that day. Five hospitals were damaged in the bombing, as well as the city's largest shopping bazaar. Hundreds of people had run from the street into the store to take shelter from the air raid.[61]"
It's not Hamburg or Dresden, it's not Coventry or the Blitz
IIRC Hitler actually wanted to preserve beautiful St Petersburg so he could parade down it. He even had a menu for the victory feast that he planned in its most famous hotel (I've eaten there, I was served by a waiter descended from
a waiter who served Rasputin, in the same restaurant).
He just wanted it completely devoid of Russians, hence the terrible, murderous Siege: that was an easy and interesting way of killing all of them, without risking German lives
This cannot be ignored. He will hope, when he is done, that it can be ignored again in future. Let us hope that is not so. No return to what had been normal.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
Also:
1942
January–December: Direct Nazi artillery bombardments of the historic centre of Saint Petersburg from a distance of 16 km from the Hermitage
But Putin & Co are deliberately buying into Blood & Soil Nationalism combined with Fascism. See "Foundations of Geopolitics" etc etc.
For example, isn't it fielder's choice whether to consider turf controlled, when the invaders are rolling across the local road grid by day, even if they do NOT travel at night, or control anything considerable on either side of the highway except for (some) towns and other outposts?
One analyst may say yes, another may say no. Not necessarily evidence that one group or another is playing at anything.
Also not evidence to the contrary either. Though not sure what point might be in this instance?
I'm talking about central St Petersburg. The Nevsky Prospect and the Admiralty. The Neva Embankments and Pushkin's House, the Winter Palace and the Church of the Saviour on Spilt Blood
It all survived relatively intact, I believe
And it is glorious. I have had wonderful wonderful times in St Petersburg with brilliant, generous and darkly funny Russians. I want that Russia back. Not this Nazi shit. That is not Russia
"forlorn hope"
"Les Enfants Perdus"
Although various theories have been put forward about Germany's plans for Leningrad, including making it the capital of the new Ingermanland province of the Reich in Generalplan Ost, it is clear Hitler's intention was to utterly destroy the city and its population. According to a directive sent to Army Group North on 29 September:
"After the defeat of Soviet Russia there can be no interest in the continued existence of this large urban centre. [...] Following the city's encirclement, requests for surrender negotiations shall be denied, since the problem of relocating and feeding the population cannot and should not be solved by us. In this war for our very existence, we can have no interest in maintaining even a part of this very large urban population."[18]
Hitler's ultimate plan was to raze Leningrad to the ground and give areas north of the River Neva to the Finns.[19][20]
The total enslavement/murder of a nation of forty four million people
Can this really be the plan?? Is Putin going to do a Mariupol on every Ukrainian city, one after the other?
If he does, and looks like succeeding, I fear NATO will be drawn into the conflict. I can't see us standing by and allowing that to happen
Hitler's plan seems a bit confused. On the one hand, he wants to have a grand victory dinner in its most glamorous hotel, on the other: raze it to the ground?
Anyway it has survived, either restored or unhurt, and I hope that it will one day be free of this fucker Putin (who is a native St Petersburger, ironically)
Greek-Russian connection goes back to Byzantine Varangian Guard and (dare I say) Kievian Rus. Followed centuries later by Russian support for Greek Revolt, for example by Alexander I's chief minister (for a time) John Capodistria, who was a Greek from Corfu. This despite fact that Alex himself opposed the revolt, on grounds that it was against the "legitimate" ruler, who was the Sultan. But most Russians, including in military, political & ecclesiastical establishment, favored the Greek cause.
There is another question though, which is can they actually do it? Won't they run out of soldiers at some point?
For example, Stalingrad. Also "motti" during Winter War, when Russians surrounded by Finns sometimes held out for weeks, with few resources and no resupply.
Mariupol is a significant pocket of resistance. If/when it falls, Russia can connect the Donbas to Crimea and focus what is currently a three or four front war into one or two.
Mariupol has refused to concede, thus it looks like Russia is threatening wholesale butchery of its citizens.
Speaking from personal experience!
Plus Finns were no help at all, despite Hitler flying to Finland to wish Marshall Mannerheim "happy birthday" in person.
Sort of how at start of WWI, generals & most officers on all sides were convinced they were staging a reenactment of the Napoleonic Wars, only with rifles instead of muskets?
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1505660086517215238
The one element of fascism overtly missing from Putin’s Russia is public policy based on racial discrimination, although the way he has ‘decided’ that the Ukranians are really Russian and hence due for incorporation within his state is essentially how the Nazis saw the Dutch and Scandinavians.
What the Russians overlook is that their actions - not just the invasion but prior, with the Donbas descending into gangster society and economy - has turned even Russian speakers against Russia.
Mariupol today. We publish the full text by Nadia Sukhorukova.
I go outside in between the bombings. I need to walk the dog. She's whining, shivering, and hiding behind my legs. I want to sleep all the time. My yard, surrounded by high-rise buildings, is silent and dead. 1/13…</i
Yes, I don't think their connection will ever be the same again, in fact. There's been real anger against the war in Greece, identified as a larger power bullying the smaller, which the Greeks associate with the Ottomans, and also particular outrage at the fact that the Russians are bombing a key outpost of the historical greek diaspora to smithereens.
That's mirrored on the religious-cultural front, where on the weekend the Orthodox Patriarch of Constantinople was talking in terms "when is the madness and criminality going to stop ? ". What he says matters amongt orthodox christians, because he's listened to not just in Europe, but also the middle east, and even Africa.
They were threatening military tribunals - the mechanism for punishing traitors and collaborators- not treating them as enemy combatants
But Ukraine’s social media appears to be organic - powerful videos that they put out and have been transmitted virally
Russia’s historical investment was based on troll farms and paid networks which have been disrupted by Twitter, Facebook etc (helped by the scrutiny placed on them post Trump). So they may be producing great videos but they have no way to get them to the western consumer and they have a less sympathetic reaction (so spread less) even when they do
Allegedly, Russia is concentrating its social media campaign on Africa, Asia and the Middle East. I have zero idea how successful they are being.
If true, it would explain why we are not seeing much. Are they trying to build a new world axis?
We forget it now, but in the 70's it was perfectly common to leave school without O Levels or CSEs. Nada. Zilch. That would mean being born in about 1960, so in your 60's now. That remained technically possible up to Ken Baker's reforms of the mid-80's.
So partly age, but also a cohort of people who have some reason to feel that the world has moved away from them in ways they don't like.
The problem here for me as a Labour (or when the situation suits LibDem of Green) supporter is that it is all too easy to come across as snotty. This really came to the fore with Brexit where the divide was quite stark. Thick, stupid, easily misled people tended to support Boris and Brexit. Of course there are exceptions to this like our very own Leon who I am sure is very bright.
See how easy it is to get snotty over it? It's something which is guaranteed to wind up Brexit supporters and Boris tories, who will point with some justification to the same kind of Metropolitan elitism which herded people into the Brexit fold. Concerns about ghost towns, immigration and the EU's manifest centralised corruption were ignored by the well-educated.
I wonder if Mike and Ipsos have really hit on something. That THIS is the real and biggest divide in Britain today?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/517476/eu-referendum-voting-intention-in-uk-by-age/
And primary, secondary, or tertiary?
I ask because I know very very few tory teachers who survived for long in the state secondary sector.
I think OGH has a valid point when two constituencies have similar median ages, but different median education levels.
(Yep, I've started on the tech 'jokes'.)
Obviously there are going to be exceptions to every 'rule' and this finding isn't a rule, it's a probability. And we ought to be familiar with these.
I suggest there are other issues, too. Back in my youth, it was unusual to become a solicitor, accountant and so on as a result of going to Uni; far more more likely to leave school at 16 and do articles, thus staying in, or close to, one's own community. Which might be an indicator for voting patterns.
Secondly I suggest that one result of making education much more available has been to change the pattern of trade union leadership. Take as an example the Prescotts. John failed his 11+, went to the world of work 'early' and ended up a trade union leader. His brother passed and has lived a blameless life as a middle manager!