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Macron looking even more a certainty to win re-election next month – politicalbetting.com

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  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    RedfieldWilton

    Boris Johnson (39%, up 3%) has regained his lead over Keir Starmer (35%, down 1%) in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the first lead we have recorded for Johnson in nine weeks.

    Good poll for Johnson and not good for Sunak. Johnson is now more or less level with Sunak in preferred ratings.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537

    Why the hell doesn't Patel order mobile pop-up offices to be sent out to handle visa applications directly where they are needed. OR simply grant temporary visas at point of entry for Ukrainian passport holders?

    Because her mission is to stop immigrants

    The cruelty is the point
  • Why the hell doesn't Patel order mobile pop-up offices to be sent out to handle visa applications directly where they are needed. OR simply grant temporary visas at point of entry for Ukrainian passport holders?

    Why would she want to do that?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    eek said:

    The point is that the Tory party wouldn't look like the bunch of racist xenophobic bureaucratic utterly incompetent hypocrites.

    As can be amply demonstrated by this poster at Calais

    image

    https://twitter.com/andylines/status/1500837210895130629

    Andy Lines
    @andylines
    The shocking poster that greets Ukraine refugees arriving here in Calais. Appears to be absolutely no official British help on the ground for these traumatised people. The wonderful volunteers of
    @Care4Calais
    are doing their best to help.


    .

    This is the absolute prime example of a story where you see the image and go "yes, and ... ?"

    It's not heartless.
    It's not shocking.
    It's not racist.
    It's not xenophobic

    At the very, very worst, and that's a push, it is bureaucratic and, in fact, competent.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    RedfieldWilton


    Westminster Voting Intention (7 Mar):

    Labour 40% (+2)
    Conservative 37% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 28 Feb

    That’s the first time Tories have broke 35 in quite a while.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    'the cruelty is the point'

    You can see why Ol' One-Note sticks to mindlessly repeating tweets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,297
    rcs1000 said:

    I think you - like most people - miss just how far Le Pen has moved the FN towards the centre. It's no coincidence that Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan started hoovering up votes - it's because of how far the FN has tacked.

    Ms Le Pen threw her own father out the party. She started a (pretty successful) campaign to get a more diverse set of candidates from multi-ethnic backgrounds. She abandoned her support for a Euro-referendum, and now says France's membership of the EU and the Euro is "settled". She even took a trip to Davos.

    Today, what distinguishes her most from Macron or Pecresse is simply that she wants the French government to go around subsidising inefficient French heavy industry. A policy which - sadly - misdiagnoses what is wrong with the French economy.
    No, I get she has moved toward the centre, her kicking her dad out was a bold move, one of many. But even before this Putin business she wasn't expected to come that close to winning, so she seems to have maxed out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537

    It's not heartless.
    It's not shocking.
    It's not racist.
    It's not xenophobic

    Compared to every other country in Europe, it is all of those things
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited March 2022

    Could PB Brexitories speculating about the angst the French might feel about Germany rearming and donning the EU trousers be described as projection? It's almost like they wish they were back in the EU so they could rant about it.
    This is good though. Nice twist on PB Tories. Needs to get an 'always wrong' in, to really hammer it home.

    7/10, room for improvement but not a bad first effort.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This is the absolute prime example of a story where you see the image and go "yes, and ... ?"

    It's not heartless.
    It's not shocking.
    It's not racist.
    It's not xenophobic

    At the very, very worst, and that's a push, it is bureaucratic and, in fact, competent.

    Nonsense.

    What would you think if you got to Calais and tried to fill in a passenger locator form, to find you had to go to Paris to get one?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    The initial suspension probably has an awful lot more to do with ensuring Aeroflot's planes aren't reclaimed when they land outside Russia rather than an issue with spares. Aeroflot leases the planes, it does seem to own them.

    Spares and the lack of them will come a problem later.
    Yep, you don’t want to land a leased plane anywhere the lease company might turn up with a court order, or the airport might have an unpaid bill that needs settling in hard currency.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    'the cruelty is the point'

    You can see why Ol' One-Note sticks to mindlessly repeating tweets.

    No. He's right. This is soft denial of visas by making it pointlessly difficult to get one, in the hope people will have run out of money and hope and enthusiasm in Calais to the extent they don't make it to Paris. Which is cruel.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017

    This is the absolute prime example of a story where you see the image and go "yes, and ... ?"

    It's not heartless.
    It's not shocking.
    It's not racist.
    It's not xenophobic

    At the very, very worst, and that's a push, it is bureaucratic and, in fact, competent.

    It is definitely and clearly heartless. It is shocking only to those not already aware of how heartless the Home Office and Home Secretary are. I don't think it is racist, probably is xenophobic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Taz said:

    That’s true, but they are a tiny minority.

    They way you go on about this, and normally you’re pretty level headed, is as if we’re an island of Tommy Robinson’s which we clearly are not.
    RP is a negative nationalist. He is simply incapable of seeing the UK in a positive light.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    heartless or just incompetent?

    Home Office says it's opening an extra visa application centre for Ukrainian refugees "en route" to Calais but won't say where or when it'll open.

    It won't open one in Calais because of fears it would create a "pull factor".

    Currently no appointments in Brussels or Paris VACs

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1500882465778458624
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,194
    eek said:

    Given how crap the MoD is at getting value for money on defence projects - I'm quite happy that we aren't rushing to spend money today.

    Let's work out exactly what modern day warfare looks like and work from there (no need for tanks but tractors seem useful).

    Should get @Dura_Ace on the case. Certainly knows his stuff.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Could PB Brexitories speculating about the angst the French might feel about Germany rearming and donning the EU trousers be described as projection? It's almost like they wish they were back in the EU so they could rant about it.
    Could be. Could also be - I wager - a rubbing of the hands at the prospect of the EU's 2 most powerful nations falling out and bringing about a Frexit, apres which a deluge, an Itexit and a Spexit and so on & so forth until the whole ungodly enterprise of locking in peace and co-operation in Europe (ex Russia) is doomed.

    To which I say - each to his own.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,297
    IshmaelZ said:

    Maj 7,000...
    If it goes up that much in one election it can go down. The area was trending Tory, but I don't think he is as safe as that majority suggests.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    edited March 2022
    The one great thing about days like today, is that you instantly discover the posters without a single ounce of humanity (or common sense) in them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    kle4 said:

    No, I get she has moved toward the centre, her kicking her dad out was a bold move, one of many. But even before this Putin business she wasn't expected to come that close to winning, so she seems to have maxed out.
    Though if she comes a clear second this time with about 40-45% in the runoff, then given Macron cannot run for a 3rd term in 2027 under France's constitution she is in prime position for the next presidential election unless Les Republicains can identify a half decent candidate instead. En Marche I expect will fade once Macron goes
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    Taz said:


    Should get @Dura_Ace on the case. Certainly knows his stuff.
    Think we might just end up with a lot of very fast cars and bikes, with an extremely well paid test driver.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Sandpit said:

    Yep, you don’t want to land a leased plane anywhere the lease company might turn up with a court order, or the airport might have an unpaid bill that needs settling in hard currency.
    Airlines are also responsible for the payment of landing charges, in local currency. So the cost of landing a plane in, say, Heathrow - even were it possible - has effectively now doubled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Good poll for Johnson and not good for Sunak. Johnson is now more or less level with Sunak in preferred ratings.
    Yes, Johnson has a 4% lead over Starmer as preferred PM now while Sunak only has a 2% lead over Starmer.

    Zero chance of Tory MPs changing leader and PM on those numbers
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-march-2022/
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    MaxPB said:

    RP is a negative nationalist. He is simply incapable of seeing the UK in a positive light.
    Given the industrial sector he works in I can see why he is unusually pessimistic.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    I am? Blimey...!
    Only on this particular subject. You are a loony leftie on most other things :wink:
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    kle4 said:

    If it goes up that much in one election it can go down. The area was trending Tory, but I don't think he is as safe as that majority suggests.
    Was first time incumbency still a factor in 1997 for Tories and 2010 for Labour MPs? Not that it would be necessarily a direct parallel as there were many more new Tory MPs in 2019 than in 1992 (or Labour in 2005).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited March 2022

    Sure, but that's the party political side. I'm talking about the real world side. People were facing into the difficulty of keeping up with rising energy bills with food and stuff to follow suit. Lots of calls - increasingly from Tory MPs - to cancel the thumping tax rise planned for next month to make it even worse.

    So now we have the war, and the price inflation is really letting rip. We may get less political pressure but the real world pressure will be so much worse. It may be Putin's fault but a year or two down the line people won't care.
    We have to agree to disagree on political side of it, whilst Putin gets blame for hardship the UK government won’t, in fact the money they now find to help will look like a blessing not a pittance whilst we are fighting economic war.

    As regards to the reality of hardship, I will go further than you, it was already going to be the worst crunch in decades even without the war on top. One of the hopeful forecasts was for inflation to drop away quickly and not linger too high too long degrading wages, an increase in which would further fuel inflation - inflation dropping away below 3 and 4 soon has to look less hopeful now.
    The other problem you might not have realised is the push this week not to have any Russian oil, because quite obviously you are paying him money when you are supposed to be making him broke. But the impact on no Russian oil will be huge on the UK, the costs we would have to pay for fuel, and the threat on supply will be hard for us.

    Makes me think when our leaders talk up a long game they have fingers crossed behind our backs not just hoping but trying for a short war.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    "No visa for at least another week"

    Ukrainians on way to UK hit paperwork dead-end in Calais


    https://bit.ly/3MugA7w
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    eek said:

    The one great thing about days like today's is that you instantly discover the posters without a single ounce of humanity (or common sense) in them.

    Oh, hell, if it were me I would open the doors to anyone with a Ukrainian passport (though that gives problems with Ukrainian residents who don't have such passports). But there's a reason why I'm not in government and it's important to analyse why the decisions that have been made have been made - and chucking around allegations of heartlessness or racism doesn't help with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    That’s the first time Tories have broke 35 in quite a while.
    SCons up to 33% on the Scottish subsample

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-march-2022/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    Ukrainian refugees stuck in Calais tell me there’s a gap as wide as the English Channel between the supportive rhetoric of the UK government and their experience on the ground.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60652914
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Applicant said:

    Was first time incumbency still a factor in 1997 for Tories and 2010 for Labour MPs? Not that it would be necessarily a direct parallel as there were many more new Tory MPs in 2019 than in 1992 (or Labour in 2005).
    Depends on the national result I think. If Labour was 5% ahead nationally, it could still swing back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    I'm not sure who's right in this ongoing and lengthy debate about refugees at Calais, but I do know it is intensely fucking tedious, to the point of decadence
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    It isn't, tbf.
    Didn't we have a couple of similarly penetrating analysts appearing here fairly recently ?
    P Johnson reincarnated. Now attached to the section desperately trying to get one of Putin's buddies elected next month.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    MaxPB said:

    RP is a negative nationalist. He is simply incapable of seeing the UK in a positive light.
    I can genuinely say I have never thought that. He is critical of specific aspects of this Government but as I remember he was a Brexiteer (I think) and his criticism has consistently about how that result has been implemented. I disagree with him on most of what he says but in this instance his attacks on current Government policy towards refugees and on the pronouncements of certain brain dead MPs seems absolutely justified.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Airlines are also responsible for the payment of landing charges, in local currency. So the cost of landing a plane in, say, Heathrow - even were it possible - has effectively now doubled.
    Indeed, and no airport is going to give them any credit right now, so they’d better have a briefcase of cash with them. Not to mention all the roundabout routes they have had to take because of airspace bans, that make the flights much more expensive to operate.

    Fun fact. Don’t know if it’s still true, but British Airways Captains used to have a company credit card that was genuinely unlimited. It could be used to pay for 400 hotel rooms and 100 tons of fuel if necessary. Mate of mine had one before he retired a few years back.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836

    Think we might just end up with a lot of very fast cars and bikes, with an extremely well paid test driver.
    Some might say that would be an improvement, in many areas of the MoD
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    Watching this business over the refugees I am continually harking back in my memory to the fuss we had when Amin kicked the Asians out of Uganda.
    No, they could go somewhere else. No this, no that, but first of all the Heath government was positive about them coming and but they actually arrived here we found them homes and, those who needed them, jobs. And financially some at least were a lot better off than the Ukrainians will be.

    Quite a few were called Patel.

    And unsurprisingly they turned out to be a real asset to the country.

    Did Leigh make all this fuss when the Government were going to let in half a million Hong Kong Chinese who were going to become permanent settlers? Or is it just Eastern Europeans he hates?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    UK R

    image
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    HYUFD said:

    SCons up to 33% on the Scottish subsample

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-march-2022/
    That’s made your day. Maybe you should buy a lottery ticket 🙂
  • MaxPB said:

    RP is a negative nationalist. He is simply incapable of seeing the UK in a positive light.
    There is MUCH of the UK I take in a good light. We are a free country. We aren't corrupt. We have been a driver of industrial and technological and medical advances that have transformed the human condition for the better. I think we have lost our way over the last 50 years (and increasingly so recently) but we can be all those things again.

    Which is why I am banging the drum for federalism - refound our constitution so that the UK survives and thrives and excels once again. Because the alternative is falling apart and further division and becoming less relevant to the world each year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Cases summary

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    Until the new visa centre "en-route" to Calais is set up, Ukrainian refugees are being told to travel to Paris or Brussels VAC centres.

    However, the Brussels one is only open on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays, and for only half the day.

    No wonder there are no appointments
    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1500886712511340549/photo/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Hospitals

    image
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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Deaths

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Age related data

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Scott_xP said:

    Because her mission is to stop immigrants

    The cruelty is the point
    I gather you can get in if you agree to pick some strawberries?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    The fact that people who have fled Ukraine are being slowed down in France while they wait to apply for British visas is simply not a humanitarian tragedy or the end of the world. They are out of the warzone and have various options including free rail travel. Unlike other refugees from various global conflicts, they also benefit from enormous public sympathy and goodwill across Europe. People need to get things in to a bit of perspective. It is overly bureaucratic and annoying, but insignificant compared with what the people left in Ukraine are having to deal with. Also, there has to be a long term plan, because we can't simply lift 40+ million people out of danger (and dogs, pets etc) and just hand over the country to the invading Russians. Such a situation would obviously be brilliant for Putin and terrible for us.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    kinabalu said:

    I gather you can get in if you agree to pick some strawberries?

    That tweet was deleted so maybe not
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Can't deny this got me close to blubbing. Didn't actually cry of cross. British and all that. But close

    "Outside Lviv station, which is thronging with exhausted refugees fleeing war in eastern Ukraine, an accomplished pianist is playing “What a Wonderful World.” It’s hauntingly beautiful."

    https://twitter.com/Journotopia/status/1500093818699456527?s=20&t=aKsPlMTDfkg1wMLbiQdPxA
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    That's the system working as intended. Don't let anyone tell you this is evidence of the Home Office not being fit for purpose. This is exactly the purpose the Home Office has been told to fulfil.

    This is the daily experience of all sorts of people at the UK Border for decades, and it's only being noticed now because there's temporary sympathy for Ukrainian refugees.
    The sympathy will be anything but temporary.

    But, it’s true, the Home Office have built a powerful system for keeping foreign looking and sounding people out of our country, credit where credits due, a Brexit and election promise has been delivered.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/06/uk-resident-slovakian-calais-detention-home-office-misspelled-name-slugs
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    Applicant said:

    Oh, hell, if it were me I would open the doors to anyone with a Ukrainian passport (though that gives problems with Ukrainian residents who don't have such passports). But there's a reason why I'm not in government and it's important to analyse why the decisions that have been made have been made - and chucking around allegations of heartlessness or racism doesn't help with that.
    Strange how you change your tune as soon as I call you out on it...
  • eek said:

    Given the industrial sector he works in I can see why he is unusually pessimistic.
    Naah. Was that before. Honestly think my crowning glory was at a public meeting in Thornaby before the 2019 election where the surge in crime and ASB enabled by the lack of police and lack of council resources like street wardens was turning some people's streets into hell.

    Our opponents in the Thornaby Independent Association blamed us as councillors and the Labour council and the Labour MP and promised that a better way was possible by standing up for the town that should be a local town for local people again.

    I pointed out that people were free to vote for whomever they wanted but as the problems were caused by local toerags and a change of council would not fix the lack of police or resources absolutely nothing would change. As expected we got absolutely mullered and the TIA won all seats. And very quickly were getting it massively in the neck because now THEY were responsible for the crime ridden hell and they were doing nothing about it.

    Sometimes world weary cynicism is right. Is good. Works. All those Gekko things.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    Leon said:

    Can't deny this got me close to blubbing. Didn't actually cry of cross. British and all that. But close

    "Outside Lviv station, which is thronging with exhausted refugees fleeing war in eastern Ukraine, an accomplished pianist is playing “What a Wonderful World.” It’s hauntingly beautiful."

    https://twitter.com/Journotopia/status/1500093818699456527?s=20&t=aKsPlMTDfkg1wMLbiQdPxA

    Did you see this one?

    Little girl singing "Let it go" in a shelter

    #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine #UkraineUnderAttack https://twitter.com/Ankita20200/status/1500496884255051776/video/1
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022
    eek said:

    Strange how you change your tune as soon as I call you out on it...
    When people start talking nonsense about me, I correct them, yes...

    But I already talked about what would happen in an ideal world, so it's not just because you started talking nonsense about me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    darkage said:

    The fact that people who have fled Ukraine are being slowed down in France while they wait to apply for British visas is simply not a humanitarian tragedy or the end of the world. They are out of the warzone and have various options including free rail travel. Unlike other refugees from various global conflicts, they also benefit from enormous public sympathy and goodwill across Europe. People need to get things in to a bit of perspective. It is overly bureaucratic and annoying, but insignificant compared with what the people left in Ukraine are having to deal with. Also, there has to be a long term plan, because we can't simply lift 40+ million people out of danger (and dogs, pets etc) and just hand over the country to the invading Russians. Such a situation would obviously be brilliant for Putin and terrible for us.

    👍🏻 They should enjoy the French food and drink during being marooned there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    COVID Summary

    - Cases are going up again. R above 1 in most regions. So far a fairly small rise. But since the rise is among the oldest groups, first., this means that hospital numbers are being affected....
    - Hospital admissions R is above 1 for the first time in a while.
    - MV beds up slightly
    - In Hospital up slightly - for both it is interesting how fast a change in cases has come through. Certainly correlates with the observations about Omicron being "quicker" than delta
    - Deaths down

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    darkage said:

    The fact that people who have fled Ukraine are being slowed down in France while they wait to apply for British visas is simply not a humanitarian tragedy or the end of the world. They are out of the warzone and have various options including free rail travel. Unlike other refugees from various global conflicts, they also benefit from enormous public sympathy and goodwill across Europe. People need to get things in to a bit of perspective. It is overly bureaucratic and annoying, but insignificant compared with what the people left in Ukraine are having to deal with. Also, there has to be a long term plan, because we can't simply lift 40+ million people out of danger (and dogs, pets etc) and just hand over the country to the invading Russians. Such a situation would obviously be brilliant for Putin and terrible for us.

    Yes, quite

    And of course, while the government may be guilty of inertia, red tape, bureaucracy, they actually aren't Nazis, and they probably ARE dealing with tricky issues helping the real Ukrainians, when there are people traffickers who would love to pretend they have boatloads of Ukrainians, but they're actually from Somalia

    Meanwhile, half the people whining about it on here do not give an actual fuck, it's yet another proxy battle in the endless Brexit war in their stupid heads, everything Britain does is bad, Patel is a Leaver, Boris got Russian money for his campaign, blah blah fucking blah

    Nauseating
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    👍🏻 They should enjoy the French food and drink during being marooned there.
    They've already been through one tragedy, and now you're proposing adding a second on top by subjecting them to *the French*?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    COVID Summary

    - Cases are going up again. R above 1 in most regions. So far a fairly small rise. But since the rise is among the oldest groups, first., this means that hospital numbers are being affected....
    - Hospital admissions R is above 1 for the first time in a while.
    - MV beds up slightly
    - In Hospital up slightly - for both it is interesting how fast a change in cases has come through. Certainly correlates with the observations about Omicron being "quicker" than delta
    - Deaths down

    image

    That's my experience among friends and relations. First time I've seen a rise for ages. Everyone's vaccinated of course, but it's not absolute protection against sever disease.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Leon said:

    Yes, quite

    And of course, while the government may be guilty of inertia, red tape, bureaucracy, they actually aren't Nazis, and they probably ARE dealing with tricky issues helping the real Ukrainians, when there are people traffickers who would love to pretend they have boatloads of Ukrainians, but they're actually from Somalia

    Meanwhile, half the people whining about it on here do not give an actual fuck, it's yet another proxy battle in the endless Brexit war in their stupid heads, everything Britain does is bad, Patel is a Leaver, Boris got Russian money for his campaign, blah blah fucking blah

    Nauseating
    There you go with your Brexit thing again.
    I seriously believe you experience (perhaps subconscious) guilt about your vote, and this compels you to go on about it in every second post.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    It is not necessary to believe the government is “racist”. However the current issue reminds us:

    That the Home Office has - in the absence of measures that cost money - generally used a kind of institutional cruelty to deter migrants. This has been the case for some time.

    That this government in particular is still instinctively beholden to its brain dead Brexit ideology about migration, even in the face of opinion polling that shows it is unpopular.

    That the Home Office lacks flexibility and this government in particular can’t do coherent crisis management (the refugee issue being highly predictable).

    That Boris continues to lie and gaslight the population (claims of world-beating etc).

    As I have said at the outset of this crisis, the character of Ukrainian refugees means there are both very good humanitarian AND economic reasons to let refugees in, perhaps via the very simple measure suggested by @TimS above.

    This periodic shambles continues at least until Boris goes.

    The argument @Applicant has is that not all Ukrainians have a passport but that misses a very fundamental point.

    It doesn't stop us doing the sane and sensible thing and waving through those people who do have said passport. That has 2 benefits

    1) It doesn't make us look like the heartless bunch of gaslighting liars we currently are
    2) it reduces the work required to the point that meetings will only be required for those hard to deal with cases where they don't have valid paperwork

    Heck for years my day job was identify things that were easy to sort out and automating them away - it's not usually difficult to see how you can fix 70-80% of issues quickly once you spend a few minutes looking at the incoming requests / problems.,
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss refuses three times to say that she believes Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a "war of aggression" because she doesn't understand what it means.

    She says the ICC should handle it. Tugendhat has to tell her that the ICC does not have that jurisdiction.
    https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1500849052283457541/video/1
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022

    It is not necessary to believe the government is “racist”. However the current issue reminds us:

    That the Home Office has - in the absence of measures that cost money - generally used a kind of institutional cruelty to deter migrants. This has been the case for some time.

    Not just measures that cost money, but measures that they can implement without being denounced as racist.

    Essentially, the Home Office plitically can't do anything to reduce demand, so it has to match demand to supply(*) by the usual three methods: lottery, queuing and price. And as it doesn't do much if any of the first (unlike the US diversity visa programme, it essentially resolves to making visa applications difficult, expensive or both.


    (*) the level of which is a political decision, of course.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Leon said:

    Yes, quite

    And of course, while the government may be guilty of inertia, red tape, bureaucracy, they actually aren't Nazis, and they probably ARE dealing with tricky issues helping the real Ukrainians, when there are people traffickers who would love to pretend they have boatloads of Ukrainians, but they're actually from Somalia

    Meanwhile, half the people whining about it on here do not give an actual fuck, it's yet another proxy battle in the endless Brexit war in their stupid heads, everything Britain does is bad, Patel is a Leaver, Boris got Russian money for his campaign, blah blah fucking blah

    Nauseating
    These people have crossed right across Europe, yet nobody along their journey has offered to take them in. Bastards.

    No wonder they want to get to the warm bosom of the UK so desperately.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022
    eek said:

    The argument @Applicant has is that not all Ukrainians have a passport but that misses a very fundamental point.

    It doesn't stop us doing the sane and sensible thing and waving through those people who do have said passport.
    I never said it did. But if we did that, as I mentioned earlier, all that would happen is that the usual suspects would immediately move on to complaining about the edge cases. And therefore politically there's no incentive for the politicians at the Home Office and above to do it.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    HYUFD said:

    SCons up to 33% on the Scottish subsample

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-march-2022/
    English/Scottish Tory crossover sometime soon? LOL

    But, seriously, the trend for Boris looks quite promising (for him) judging by a quick scan I had of the figures. I think that is worrying because for everyone's sakes he really needs to go. But it just ain't happening is it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    COVID Summary

    - Cases are going up again. R above 1 in most regions. So far a fairly small rise. But since the rise is among the oldest groups, first., this means that hospital numbers are being affected....
    - Hospital admissions R is above 1 for the first time in a while.
    - MV beds up slightly
    - In Hospital up slightly - for both it is interesting how fast a change in cases has come through. Certainly correlates with the observations about Omicron being "quicker" than delta
    - Deaths down

    image

    While we are all watching Ukraine, a new Covid disaster is overtaking Hong Kong, which now has one of the highest death rates ever recorded anywhere


    "This #pandemic is gonna make many #experts eat their words, especially those who were ecstatic about HK’s handling of it.

    Overwhelmed medics unable to monitor oxygen cylinders for Covid patients at inundated Hong Kong hospitals - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP"


    https://twitter.com/Nucmedico/status/1500859363082264577?s=20&t=fUy5EXon8PD_7QxiZ9VE3g

    The reasons seems to be: low vax rates in the elderly, dodgy Chinese jabs anyway, and a lack of prior immunity. Plus BA2 Omicron

    Hmm
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Scott_xP said:

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss refuses three times to say that she believes Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a "war of aggression" because she doesn't understand what it means.

    She says the ICC should handle it. Tugendhat has to tell her that the ICC does not have that jurisdiction.
    https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1500849052283457541/video/1

    Tugendhat Becomes leader in the summer is my thinking this week.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    Ahghhhhh....Reports of "Truckloads of Ukrainian Aid stuck in UK due to post-Brexit paperwork: charity workers who are trying to send aid to people in war-torn Ukraine say their donations are spending days stuck at Dover due to complex post-Brexit checks." (PoliticsHome)
    https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1500889381166587904
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509

    Watching this business over the refugees I am continually harking back in my memory to the fuss we had when Amin kicked the Asians out of Uganda.
    No, they could go somewhere else. No this, no that, but first of all the Heath government was positive about them coming and but they actually arrived here we found them homes and, those who needed them, jobs. And financially some at least were a lot better off than the Ukrainians will be.

    Quite a few were called Patel.

    The UK accepted 27,200 Ugandan Asian refugees; in 1972 net migration to the UK was -11,000 and in 1973 it was -50,000. Less than two weeks after the start of the war there are already 1,700,000 Ukrainian refugees, and except during the pandemic UK net migration hasn't been under 200,000 per year for a decade. These situations are not comparable.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    edited March 2022
    Applicant said:

    I never said it did. But if we did that, as I mentioned earlier, all that would happen is that the usual suspects would immediately move on to complaining about the edge cases. And therefore politically there's no incentive for the politicians at the Home Office and above to do it.
    But there is, as I covered it in the second half of the post.

    Although it is. of course, easier to drown out the edge cases with the WTF are the UK thinking about ones.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Applicant said:

    Not just measures that cost money, but measures that they can implement without being denounced as racist.

    Essentially, the Home Office plitically can't do anything to reduce demand, so it has to match demand to supply(*) by the usual three methods: lottery, queuing and price. And as it doesn't do much if any of the first (unlike the US diversity visa programme, it essentially resolves to making visa applications difficult, expensive or both.


    (*) the level of which is a political decision, of course.
    And a kind of bureaucratic cruelty.

    But putting that aside, it’s the lack of political leadership and urgency that has contributed to this current issue.

    It’s as if Patel didn’t realise what was coming. Well, in fact, she didn’t and when she did, her first instinct was likely to tighten the borders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited March 2022

    There you go with your Brexit thing again.
    I seriously believe you experience (perhaps subconscious) guilt about your vote, and this compels you to go on about it in every second post.
    lol. I refer you to this sentence in your immediately preceding comment:


    "this government in particular is still instinctively beholden to its brain dead Brexit ideology about migration, even in the face of opinion polling that shows it is unpopular"

    You just can't help yourself. You're so sunk in this toxic madness you aren't even aware that you're doing it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537

    The UK accepted 27,200 Ugandan Asian refugees; in 1972 net migration to the UK was -11,000 and in 1973 it was -50,000. Less than two weeks after the start of the war there are already 1,700,000 Ukrainian refugees, and except during the pandemic UK net migration hasn't been under 200,000 per year for a decade. These situations are not comparable.

    The UK accepted 27,200 Ugandan Asian refugees

    Less than two weeks after the start of the war there are already 1,700,000 Ukrainian refugees

    We have taken 50...

    These situations are not comparable, and we are shamed as a Nation as a result
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Scott_xP said:

    That tweet was deleted so maybe not
    There are two routes open. Patel loudly promised a third in her interview in the Sun, number ten had killed it before she finished her breakfast.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Ahghhhhh....Reports of "Truckloads of Ukrainian Aid stuck in UK due to post-Brexit paperwork: charity workers who are trying to send aid to people in war-torn Ukraine say their donations are spending days stuck at Dover due to complex post-Brexit checks." (PoliticsHome)
    https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1500889381166587904

    Why are they in trucks in Dover

    They should be airlifted direct to Poland
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    These people have crossed right across Europe, yet nobody along their journey has offered to take them in. Bastards.

    No wonder they want to get to the warm bosom of the UK so desperately.
    The reports I’ve seen are typically about people with some form of existing UK link.

    Typical heartless post from you, I’m afraid.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    CatMan said:

    Maybe they could join the Tempest project?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Tempest
    Wasn't there originally a fuss over the name because Typhoons killed so many Germans in WWII? Not sure Tempest would go down much better.

    I read that there's an NGF (New Generation Fighter) being designed by Germany, France & Spain, due for introduction in 2040. That might be much too late for a lot of reasons.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    These people have crossed right across Europe, yet nobody along their journey has offered to take them in. Bastards.

    No wonder they want to get to the warm bosom of the UK so desperately.
    To be fair to UK government, it might not be easy to find somewhere for a sudden influx off 100K to 200K people to live?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    The reports I’ve seen are typically about people with some form of existing UK link.

    Typical heartless post from you, I’m afraid.
    You don't even live in the UK any more, so why the fuck do you think you have a say on who comes here? Fuck off, you stupid fat fuck

    There. I feel better now. Good afternoon, everyone
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,697
    Leon said:

    While we are all watching Ukraine, a new Covid disaster is overtaking Hong Kong, which now has one of the highest death rates ever recorded anywhere


    "This #pandemic is gonna make many #experts eat their words, especially those who were ecstatic about HK’s handling of it.

    Overwhelmed medics unable to monitor oxygen cylinders for Covid patients at inundated Hong Kong hospitals - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP"


    https://twitter.com/Nucmedico/status/1500859363082264577?s=20&t=fUy5EXon8PD_7QxiZ9VE3g

    The reasons seems to be: low vax rates in the elderly, dodgy Chinese jabs anyway, and a lack of prior immunity. Plus BA2 Omicron

    Hmm
    Speaking to a friend from HK at the weekend - the story seems to be the old one that, so successful were they at keeping the virus out that no one much felt the need to get vaxxed.

    I wonder what vaccine mix HK has? Apparently the only two vaccines approved are Pfizer and Sinovac. I wonder what this portends for China?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281
    IshmaelZ said:

    Don't be bloody silly. "The language factor" might attract people looking for a permanent home, who speak English. these people are temporary refugees from a non anglophone country (look how few of their ministers and ambassadors starting with the President attempt English in speeches).
    I personally know 3 people (and of several more) who have driven to the Ukraine border and picked people up brought them back to Germany without anyone filling in any forms. They have the right to stay and work and have access to education etc for a year without applying for asylum. Of course there are no border controls between Poland and Germany, so in that sense Britain has the luxury of having a different policy.

    None of the Ukrainians I know of have any interest in travelling on to the UK - they are here because they have some kind of connection here and will stay here until they can go back (of course some might want to stay longer). I guess that before this year there were quite a few more Ukrainians in Germany than in the UK, but it would be nice if those with connections in Britain could get there.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    You don't even live in the UK any more, so why the fuck do you think you have a say on who comes here? Fuck off, you stupid fat fuck

    There. I feel better now. Good afternoon, everyone
    You’ve been much less funny since Covid impaired your brain. @malcolmg does much better vitriol than you can manage these days.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    Ahghhhhh....Reports of "Truckloads of Ukrainian Aid stuck in UK due to post-Brexit paperwork: charity workers who are trying to send aid to people in war-torn Ukraine say their donations are spending days stuck at Dover due to complex post-Brexit checks." (PoliticsHome)
    https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1500889381166587904

    Yeah bollocks to brexit, but Ukraine doesn't want truckloads of thoughtlessly chosen tat from Amazon or tins of beans; like a teenager at Christmas or a bride n groom it would much rather have hard cash, which obviates this sort of problem.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Leon said:

    lol. I refer you to this sentence in your immediately preceding comment:


    "this government in particular is still instinctively beholden to its brain dead Brexit ideology about migration, even in the face of opinion polling that shows it is unpopular"

    You just can't help yourself. You're so sunk in this toxic madness you aren't even aware that you're doing it
    But you want to see a massive fallout between France and Germany, possibly involving skirmishes. Not all of you feels that way, I won't be unfair here, but there's a big part of you that does. This is a more crazy and reprehensible sentiment than being unreconciled to Brexit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,537
    FM #Lavrov: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there. https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500886096837849099/photo/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    Scott_xP said:

    FM #Lavrov: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there. https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500886096837849099/photo/1

    Who needs Orwell?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Why are they in trucks in Dover

    They should be airlifted direct to Poland
    There was a whip round organised by a Ukrainian Yorkshireman back in my homeland, he filled a van up with what he said was needed, telephone and tech cables and pampers etc, and reckoned it would take him 2 days to drive it to Ukraine border. It’s probably people like that getting slowed up?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,306
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    While we are all watching Ukraine, a new Covid disaster is overtaking Hong Kong, which now has one of the highest death rates ever recorded anywhere


    "This #pandemic is gonna make many #experts eat their words, especially those who were ecstatic about HK’s handling of it.

    Overwhelmed medics unable to monitor oxygen cylinders for Covid patients at inundated Hong Kong hospitals - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP"


    https://twitter.com/Nucmedico/status/1500859363082264577?s=20&t=fUy5EXon8PD_7QxiZ9VE3g

    The reasons seems to be: low vax rates in the elderly, dodgy Chinese jabs anyway, and a lack of prior immunity. Plus BA2 Omicron

    Hmm
    So if Omicron took hold in China it would likely have a similar trajectory?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,194

    Tugendhat Becomes leader in the summer is my thinking this week.
    You’d get cracking odds on him as next leader and next PM.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    I never said it did. But if we did that, as I mentioned earlier, all that would happen is that the usual suspects would immediately move on to complaining about the edge cases. And therefore politically there's no incentive for the politicians at the Home Office and above to do it.
    There aren't edge cases between having a valid Ukr passport vs not having one.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    kinabalu said:

    But you want to see a massive fallout between France and Germany, possibly involving skirmishes. Not all of you feels that way, I won't be unfair here, but there's a big part of you that does. This is a more crazy and reprehensible sentiment than being unreconciled to Brexit.
    It’s not that long since he was waxing lyrical about Putin’s iron grip.

    It’s best to treat him like a mildly amusing, filter-free, lecherous uncle.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited March 2022

    English/Scottish Tory crossover sometime soon? LOL

    But, seriously, the trend for Boris looks quite promising (for him) judging by a quick scan I had of the figures. I think that is worrying because for everyone's sakes he really needs to go. But it just ain't happening is it?
    I'm not brave enough to predict he definitely fights the 2024 election but I cannot see how he departs before summer 2023 (May 2023 elections are admittedly a much more pivotal set of elections for the Tories).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    Why are they in trucks in Dover

    They should be airlifted direct to Poland
    The sane approach would be to send money and purchase everything from Poland and or Germany / Surrounding countries.

    The second approach is then to ship the stuff by lorry as that is cheaper than air freight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,297
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yeah bollocks to brexit, but Ukraine doesn't want truckloads of thoughtlessly chosen tat from Amazon or tins of beans; like a teenager at Christmas or a bride n groom it would much rather have hard cash, which obviates this sort of problem.
    Although it relates mostly to charity tourism, I've always liked this comedy sketch touching upon the subject of the potential downsides of trying to help when you are not best placed for it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmpVX-C21Qw
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