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Macron looking even more a certainty to win re-election next month – politicalbetting.com
Macron looking even more a certainty to win re-election next month – politicalbetting.com
in one sense the Ukraine crisis could not have come at a better time for the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking to secure a second term in the French Presidential elections next month.
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Mariupol humanitarian exit route mined
The absolute poverty line is increasing quickly as a result of the high rate of inflation.
If inflation is higher than the income growth of people in lower income deciles (likely, as benefits are uprated on the prior year's inflation rate) , absolute poverty will soar, with no similar impact on relative poverty if median incomes continue to move in line with lower incomes.
This is when the obsession with relative poverty comes back to bite. The Tories will point at it now and claim all is good, while people are genuinely suffering.
It is that the component that led to the original rejection was changed/altered/withdrawn
This, sources say, happened after the PM made it known in No10 that he would not drop the matter https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1500820906851119106
However in a runoff against Le Pen, who is now second in most polls, it will be closer to 55% 45% than the 66% to 34% he beat her by in 2017.
There may be more likelihood of change in the legislative elections in June where Les Republicains have a chance of taking control from En Marche.
As OGH states following a constitutional amendment in 2000 French like US Presidents have a 2 term limit.
So 2027 could be wide open at least even if Macron as looks likely wins again this year
“People you speak to cannot in any way comprehend how the leader of a civilised country like Russia, like Vladimir Putin..could have done this to Kharkiv..”
@charlesaje
incredible reporting from #kharkiv"
https://twitter.com/StefanieDekker/status/1500832364284493827?s=20&t=RDneajXzNWbYOGm8b7plqQ
Look at the devastation. Horrific. The centre of the second biggest city in Ukraine is a wasteland of ruins. This raises a pretty important point, even if Russia *wins*, where on earth will they find the money to rebuild half a country? How will they make it habitable again? Who will live there?
Everything about this war is incomprehensibly dumb, in a Satanic way
New ventures which need scale (see also eg Tesla) seem to have put the UK lower down the list since Brexit.
But that's a given.
How can we change that without rejoining the EU - which isn't going to happen in any kind of useful timeframe ?
For Russian soldiers. One way.
In a Macron-Le Pen runoff I think a lot of voters would stay at home again which is why I can see 60-40 quite easily. If Macron gets as much as 30% in the first round, it would still be quite strange for him to be run as close as 55-45 in the runoff.
In most cases Brexit has just added a couple of line items to the cost basis of moving goods and services across borders, or triggered the need for a duplicate function on the continent. Large multinationals just write this off as a cost of business in the same way excessive labour force regulation in some European countries, capital controls in countries like South Africa, or withholding taxes out of places like Brazil are written off. A few smaller traders are squeezed out of the market but their voices are quiet.
In related news I had an hour in the diary booked this afternoon for a brainstorming session to try to identify some "Brexit benefits" for us to feed into HMT and DIT but it's been cancelled (or postponed) due to other news being more pressing. The fact we're all scratching our heads to find things beyond hypothetical examples of regulatory divergence that aren't actually happening is evidence of the issue.
This is all compounded by Brexit becoming a taboo topic. The only people vocalising about it are either reciting empty charts about getting Brexit done and returning to imperial weights and measures, or they're FBPEs blaming everything from Putin to climate change on Brexit. There is a vacuum where sensible trade-focused debate should be.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500829973942317068
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500740225831735296
Starts: "Some ideas on the state of the war in Ukraine two weeks in, where it might be headed, and why it remains an unwinnable war for Russia which the Russians would be best to end soon or they face an extraordinarily bleak future. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war. The first thing to see is that for almost a week now, the Russian Army has been almost entirely inert. See the UK MODs maps yesterday and March 2. This is a sign of total strategic failure.""
Ends: "So time is actually on Ukraine's side, not Russia's. If the Russian army cannot be reorganized, resupplied and start moving very soon, its more likely it will not be able to get out of eastern Ukraine, leaving Russia fighting a long-term war it cant win. We should know very soon."
That is why it would be closer in the runoff even if her first round score is slightly lower than 2017 giving her 43.5% overall
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/ROL22_2022.03.04.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
For some reason, thinking of this song - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGTvNKNguWo
If we looked at this afresh now with zero baggage we would see a simple problem with a simple solution: The UK and EU are almost entirely aligned on almost everything to do with trade and likely to continue to be for the foreseeable. So the obvious thing to do would be to remove the barriers making trade across these aligned markets easy and cheap.
"Eleven days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, and another broken Russian ‘ceasefire’. Today - the war in the south, and why it matters. 1/25"
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500637716601458688?s=20&t=EjrOkXWwMCmmSZNynNeUKg
Incidentally, Odessa looks beautiful. I was meant to be flying there next Sunday.
We don't have anything as damaging as SARB requirements in the UK at the moment but we do have smaller frictions and in some marginal cases those have tipped the balance on investment and location decisions. The fact the UK CT rate is heading to 25% next year and will be on a level with most other OECD countries doesn't help either.
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1500836785731121154
And that's why I think a lot of the Pecresse supporters stay home rather than vote Le Pen this year.
Of course, I may be wrong. But I suspect that the polls have not yet caught up with reality.
"The plane of Viktor Yanukovych a few hours before start of third round of negotiations flew from Moscow to Minsk, writes Ukrayinska Pravda citing an informed source in aviation sphere.
Ukrainian intelligence believes that the Kremlin wants to make him "president of Ukraine.""
If the leaked FSB rant is true, then he's just about the only pro-Russiann Ukrainian politician still on Russia's side. While I'm not an international man of mystery, even I can see what a bad idea this is for the Russians.
Also Russia are now chucking Russian revolution era armoured trains into the fray: https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500847429482172416
Fortunately, it doesn't seem to be affecting the positive way UK is seen in Ukraine itself, where the early efforts to support, supply and train seem to be appreciated. Looks like that investment was well worth it, to say the least.
Former President Poroshenko:
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1500842741823160327
It doesn't matter what she does, for a solid majority of French people, that's what she is.
Just the sort of shameless flattery to get BJ all excited in his frayed boxers.
Huge pressure on Britain to go harder and faster with sanctions on Russian oligarchs
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1500850161844731907
Even if Pecresse voters who voted for Macron in the 2017 runoff stay home this time that also is a net gain for Le Pen
That said, just as Covid did Trump in, I think Ukraine dispatches Le Pen's hopes. A lot of her second round votes - particularly from Pecresse supporters - were simply because she wasn't Macron. And while I don't think those voters will troop our and vote Emmanuel, I think they are increasingly likely to stay home and sit on their hands.
It is about 2.5% of GDP, which covers approx 4-5 years of shortfall - whilst the shortfall has been happening since the millenium at least.
All it will cover is pothole filling and sticky plasters, plus a little more. The big stuff will come from the 2% commitment, which is about an extra 40% on the previous Defence Budget,
Here's a piece in Der Spiegel about a memo about what they may want to spend it on that was leaked:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/budgetary-about-face-germany-goes-big-on-defense-spending-a-4c90635e-5de8-4123-b18a-646b0ac13b04
It includes 20bn Euro to make sure they have enough ammunition stocks.
They still have minor problems to deal with such as any item over £25m requiring a Parliamentary vote.
In the second round in France, there will literally only be two candidates to vote for. Macron + ANOther will add up to 100%. That's not true in the US.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/mar/07/zelinskiys-servant-of-the-people-the-tv-show-that-made-ukraines-president
I'm British so I'm keen to see if I relate to it.
Not a massive number, but it Macron's had a good war, and Le Pen has been friendly with Putin.
It’s terrible to reduce what they’re doing and the horrible reason why they’re doing it to admiring their hotness. But, y’know, phwoarrrr. I’m pretty liberal and, though I dislike the term, Woke, I guess. But my word they’re attractive young women.
I’m 44. I should know better.
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1500535656195543048?s=21
Cambo ?
Here it should be incredibly simple, show a Ukrainian Passport and all the confirmation needed is contained within it.
Patel and others really are showing exactly what they are made of - racist, xenophobic idiots...
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500853580877680645
Kherson protests are getting a bit more aggressive, with some very outnumbered russians: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500855921567748097
In the early twentieth century the entente cordiale was arguably more driven by the fact that Britain and France represented similar political cultures, in contrast to that of Germany and Austria-Hungary. Though we did end up with Russia on our side too.
Ms Le Pen threw her own father out the party. She started a (pretty successful) campaign to get a more diverse set of candidates from multi-ethnic backgrounds. She abandoned her support for a Euro-referendum, and now says France's membership of the EU and the Euro is "settled". She even took a trip to Davos.
Today, what distinguishes her most from Macron or Pecresse is simply that she wants the French government to go around subsidising inefficient French heavy industry. A policy which - sadly - misdiagnoses what is wrong with the French economy.
Preventing war was a lost cause, but going to Moscow to have a go at that was a sensible thing to try.
“Massive mobilisation now in process in Russia”
https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1500853549202386945?s=21
Compared to the UK, French consumers are going to be hit much less hard.
A good help for the economy in 2023/4, perhaps?
As I've said before, he's a bright guy with a notably narrow mind, settled contentedly in his views
Fuck you Russia.
We are capable now of agreeing alignment of terms with the EU as a non-member associate without having the door wide open to anyone. Besides which we aren't the most attractive country for the Schrodinger's forrin to come and take both our jobs and our benefits. They're really not welcome, so I doubt there would be a mad influx.
Why can't we just let them in like civilised countries are doing?