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Petrol to rise to £2 a litre this year? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,049
edited March 2022 in General
imagePetrol to rise to £2 a litre this year? – politicalbetting.com

One of the smarkets betting markets that has seen a fair amount of interest this week is the above one on whether petrol will move to £2 a litre in the UK at some stage during 2020.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    edited March 2022
    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    Second. And good pun, intended or not.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    OTOH it's a great hedge if you buy lots of petrol

    and come to think of it I have oil heating and it's a pretty good proxy for that too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    The Government could always cut the green taxes.

    But then, the PM's current owner loves that kind of stuff.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Essexit said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    Second. And good pun, intended or not.
    Not intended!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    A bit of a stupid comment I know but couldn't one response be to mandate people to work from home as with the Covid crisis? Obviously not all can but it would presumably reduce fuel usage / traffic
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481

    I've sent some dosh this morning to: https://donate.unrefugees.org.uk/

    They have a Ukr appeal up and running now.
  • FossFoss Posts: 899
    It really does feel like the west is heading into a lost decade.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    Us bicyclists are laughing now.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    A bit of a stupid comment I know but couldn't one response be to mandate people to work from home as with the Covid crisis? Obviously not all can but it would presumably reduce fuel usage / traffic
    they'll be asking folk to share baths next (only older PB'ers will know what I mean)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    Mr. Foss, the enervation of virtue and strength as it's dissolved by luxury and prolonged peace is similar to what happened to the Western Empire.

    We allowed our whole trade (and, alarmingly, telecomms) to become integrated with China and Chinese firms, and to become on the hook (partly due to green nonsense and Merkel's crackers nuclear policy) with Russian gas.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,138
    Morris_Dancer said:

    The Government could always cut the green taxes.

    But then, the PM's current owner loves that kind of stuff.

    I would expect the govt to reduce taxes temporarily if we get close to £2.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,369
    edited March 2022
    rottenborough said:


    I've sent some dosh this morning to: https://donate.unrefugees.org.uk/

    They have a Ukr appeal up and running now.

    If I'd won my bet on the by-election I would have donated the winnings to this campaign.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    swing_voter said:

    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    A bit of a stupid comment I know but couldn't one response be to mandate people to work from home as with the Covid crisis? Obviously not all can but it would presumably reduce fuel usage / traffic
    they'll be asking folk to share baths next (only older PB'ers will know what I mean)
    Mr Johnson will be overjoyed to be able to deploy his Benny Hill shtick over brushing our teeth in the dark. No doubt he'll expect us to sing Happy Birthday at the same time.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    FPT...
    Gary_Burton said:

    Applicant said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.

    To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
    As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
    We've lived with that for decades though.
    Also, I'm not sure that the result bears it out. Obviously the reduced turnout complicates the calcluations, but it looks to me like the direct swing from "the right" to "the left" outweighed movement within "the left".

    (Con/Ref 38.0 (-6.2); Lab/TUSC/Grn/LD 60.0 (+4.2) with Lab alone +5.2)
    The % Labour majority is pretty much the same as 2017.

    Also tallies with the 2018 local elections where despite the Tories doing well and winning several wards, Labour still did well across the constituency including still managing 37% in the Tories' Erdington stronghold.
    So very much consistent with a hung parliament and therefore with much of the other data we have at the moment.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Foss, the enervation of virtue and strength as it's dissolved by luxury and prolonged peace is similar to what happened to the Western Empire.

    We allowed our whole trade (and, alarmingly, telecomms) to become integrated with China and Chinese firms, and to become on the hook (partly due to green nonsense and Merkel's crackers nuclear policy) with Russian gas.

    Channelling Gibbon, I see, and quite right too (mostly).
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,664
    Excellent balanced thread from David Herdson (of this parish) on the Erdington by-election.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1499686747197874178

    "Indeed, looking forward to May, unless Labour can start enthusing people in their own message and vision (if indeed they can find one), or unless they can generate real anger against the Tories, those polls will also prove to be a damp squib for Starmer."
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Looks like the VDV took massive casualties around Irpin yesterday. No shortage of videos in the area showing plenty of russian dead in areas that were clearly set up for defending an armour attack.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    Carnyx said:

    swing_voter said:

    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    A bit of a stupid comment I know but couldn't one response be to mandate people to work from home as with the Covid crisis? Obviously not all can but it would presumably reduce fuel usage / traffic
    they'll be asking folk to share baths next (only older PB'ers will know what I mean)
    Mr Johnson will be overjoyed to be able to deploy his Benny Hill shtick over brushing our teeth in the dark. No doubt he'll expect us to sing Happy Birthday at the same time.
    Boris and Carrie would probably have a party in the bath.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,783
    edited March 2022
    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    For those who don't remember the 70s...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    Mr. Carnyx, he wasn't wrong.

    Alas that Marcus Aurelius ended the heir by adoption approach.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553
    I'm going to be even more unbearably smug if this happen.

    Hybrid/electric car owners for the win.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Carnyx, he wasn't wrong.

    Alas that Marcus Aurelius ended the heir by adoption approach.

    Eheu, certe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,456
    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    Second. And good pun, intended or not.
    Not intended!
    Double pun, too ...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,051
    Applicant said:

    FPT...

    Gary_Burton said:

    Applicant said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.

    To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
    As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
    We've lived with that for decades though.
    Also, I'm not sure that the result bears it out. Obviously the reduced turnout complicates the calcluations, but it looks to me like the direct swing from "the right" to "the left" outweighed movement within "the left".

    (Con/Ref 38.0 (-6.2); Lab/TUSC/Grn/LD 60.0 (+4.2) with Lab alone +5.2)
    The % Labour majority is pretty much the same as 2017.

    Also tallies with the 2018 local elections where despite the Tories doing well and winning several wards, Labour still did well across the constituency including still managing 37% in the Tories' Erdington stronghold.
    So very much consistent with a hung parliament and therefore with much of the other data we have at the moment.
    A few good LD council results arose the country, but, while turnout figures aren't available, I got the impression they are are low.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    kle4 said:

    Us bicyclists are laughing now.

    Maybe unlike this one…..


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    Sobering to think that with 9/11, the financial crash and Covid, we might still have had the best years of this century....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,051
    Northern_Al said:

    Carnyx said:

    swing_voter said:

    MrEd said:

    tlg86 said:

    First!

    I am not an economist, but surely there comes a point where price rises might slow or even reverse. If things get really bad, the economy could properly tank.

    A bit of a stupid comment I know but couldn't one response be to mandate people to work from home as with the Covid crisis? Obviously not all can but it would presumably reduce fuel usage / traffic
    they'll be asking folk to share baths next (only older PB'ers will know what I mean)
    Mr Johnson will be overjoyed to be able to deploy his Benny Hill shtick over brushing our teeth in the dark. No doubt he'll expect us to sing Happy Birthday at the same time.
    Boris and Carrie would probably have a party in the bath.
    Eughhhh
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,783
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to be even more unbearably smug if this happen. ..

    Is that really possible ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,369
    "There was a revealing comment yesterday from Robert Habeck, the German economics minister. It is a comment that inadvertently suggests how Vladimir Putin will end up winning the war. Habeck said Germany would not agree to an import ban of Russian gas, oil and coal, because this would endanger the social peace in Germany. It is not clear whether he spoke for himself or the government. But as of now, we have reached the limits of meaningful sanctions. Germany ended Nord Stream 2 unilaterally. Germany raised its defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP, plus extra investments, again unilaterally. German reluctantly agreed to what turned out to be very limited sanctions on Russia’s exclusion from the Swift payment communications system. For now, this is it."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-putin-wins-the-war

    "On Thursday, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that he is not in favor of banning energy imports from Russia as they are necessary to prevent prices from "rising further" and guarantee "social peace" in Germany. Currently, Russia provides Germany with 55 percent of the natural gas, 50 percent of the coal, and 35 percent of the oil consumed by its inhabitants."

    https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Germany-Cant-Stop-Importing-Russian-Energy-Habeck-20220303-0008.html
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    Us bicyclists are laughing now.

    Maybe unlike this one…..


    Bloody cyclists, only care about themselves, etc. etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    300% council tax rise from April 23 for holiday home owners in Wales

    Actually quite popular
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,783
    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    On topic. There are better ways to bet on this, if you think petrol >£2 is likely.

    “No” is probably value. But I can’t be arsed to do the in depth research into oil futures that I’d need to do, before parting with my money.

    I’d be interested in @rcs1000 ’s opinion.

    Also, sorry to be pedantic Mike, but there’s a typo - 2022, not 2020.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,256
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, he’s not really in a position to safely allow any of his forces to leave the country.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, IMO that's a good indication that tings are not going to plan for Russia.

    We should also talk to Lukashenko (if we are not already), and try to further divide him from Russia, isolating Putin further.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to be even more unbearably smug if this happen. ..

    Is that really possible ?
    How will we notice the difference?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    Applicant said:

    FPT...

    Gary_Burton said:

    Applicant said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.

    To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
    As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
    We've lived with that for decades though.
    Also, I'm not sure that the result bears it out. Obviously the reduced turnout complicates the calcluations, but it looks to me like the direct swing from "the right" to "the left" outweighed movement within "the left".

    (Con/Ref 38.0 (-6.2); Lab/TUSC/Grn/LD 60.0 (+4.2) with Lab alone +5.2)
    The % Labour majority is pretty much the same as 2017.

    Also tallies with the 2018 local elections where despite the Tories doing well and winning several wards, Labour still did well across the constituency including still managing 37% in the Tories' Erdington stronghold.
    So very much consistent with a hung parliament and therefore with much of the other data we have at the moment.
    Yup. And the question is then what you think about the future.

    If the future is swing back from here, the Conservatives are sitting pretty.

    If the future is Things Can Only Get Worse, they're in fairly deep doodoo.

    Me? I think it'll be The Economy, Stupid and Vote Starmer Because He Can't Be Any Worse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Probably a lie. But a slight chance he reckons he'll get toppled if they do. Probably by the army itself. They've seen what awaits them on Twitter.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    JosiasJessop said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, IMO that's a good indication that tings are not going to plan for Russia.

    We should also talk to Lukashenko (if we are not already), and try to further divide him from Russia, isolating Putin further.
    Let's hope reality is dawning and he backs away from Putin
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    The mass murderer may see it as provocative. It's funny how touchy people who indulge in light, recreational, genocide are about it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,256
    Stuartinromford said:

    Applicant said:

    FPT...

    Gary_Burton said:

    Applicant said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.

    To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
    As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
    We've lived with that for decades though.
    Also, I'm not sure that the result bears it out. Obviously the reduced turnout complicates the calcluations, but it looks to me like the direct swing from "the right" to "the left" outweighed movement within "the left".

    (Con/Ref 38.0 (-6.2); Lab/TUSC/Grn/LD 60.0 (+4.2) with Lab alone +5.2)
    The % Labour majority is pretty much the same as 2017.

    Also tallies with the 2018 local elections where despite the Tories doing well and winning several wards, Labour still did well across the constituency including still managing 37% in the Tories' Erdington stronghold.
    So very much consistent with a hung parliament and therefore with much of the other data we have at the moment.
    Yup. And the question is then what you think about the future.

    If the future is swing back from here, the Conservatives are sitting pretty.

    If the future is Things Can Only Get Worse, they're in fairly deep doodoo.

    Me? I think it'll be The Economy, Stupid and Vote Starmer Because He Can't Be Any Worse.
    More competent, less corrupt. It’s certainly enough for me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to be even more unbearably smug if this happen. ..

    Is that really possible ?
    Very unlikely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    JosiasJessop said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, IMO that's a good indication that tings are not going to plan for Russia.

    We should also talk to Lukashenko (if we are not already), and try to further divide him from Russia, isolating Putin further.
    It's not like he probably wants to be totally subordinate to Putin, he wants to be a mini me Putin (albeit he was in place first), its weakness that's led him to bend over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, IMO that's a good indication that tings are not going to plan for Russia.

    We should also talk to Lukashenko (if we are not already), and try to further divide him from Russia, isolating Putin further.
    Let's hope reality is dawning and he backs away from Putin
    Perhaps he is noticing that many of the sanctions, especially cultural and sporting sanctions, refer to both countries. I doubt he was expecting that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    Jesus. Time for an unplanned trip to the southern hemisphere?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    We have speculated about Putin's health here recently. We've also made comments about timing and readiness: we're a little puzzled that he invaded now, rather than in two months' time. Could it be that his health is even worse than we thought? That his time left can be measured in months rather than years? Is that the imperative for acting now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    The mass murderer may see it as provocative. It's funny how touchy people who indulge in light, recreational, genocide are about it.
    It's like how in period dramas some of the rudest and most insufferable people like Lady Catherine are the most upset by what they regard as others being rude to them.

    Or in real life how those who show no loyalty to others may be the most demanding of loyalty from the same.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Obviously I support the idea in theory, and would ideally be fist to sign up, but I’ve got a bad leg you see? And these feet? Flat as a pancake. Not to mention my hayfever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    biggles said:

    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Obviously I support the idea in theory, and would ideally be fist to sign up, but I’ve got a bad leg you see? And these feet? Flat as a pancake. Not to mention my hayfever.
    I'd go but I'm volunteering to look after biggles.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,478
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Obviously I support the idea in theory, and would ideally be fist to sign up, but I’ve got a bad leg you see? And these feet? Flat as a pancake. Not to mention my hayfever.
    I'd go but I'm volunteering to look after biggles.
    The two of you can't be left alone. I'll have to look after you.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1499661587787153409

    BREAKING: Moscow Stock Exchange to remain closed until at least next Tuesday

    What will come first, nuclear annihilation or the Moscow Stopped Exchange re-opening? Can we get an s-markets market on this?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,555
    Andy_JS said:

    "There was a revealing comment yesterday from Robert Habeck, the German economics minister. It is a comment that inadvertently suggests how Vladimir Putin will end up winning the war. Habeck said Germany would not agree to an import ban of Russian gas, oil and coal, because this would endanger the social peace in Germany. It is not clear whether he spoke for himself or the government. But as of now, we have reached the limits of meaningful sanctions. Germany ended Nord Stream 2 unilaterally. Germany raised its defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP, plus extra investments, again unilaterally. German reluctantly agreed to what turned out to be very limited sanctions on Russia’s exclusion from the Swift payment communications system. For now, this is it."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-putin-wins-the-war

    "On Thursday, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that he is not in favor of banning energy imports from Russia as they are necessary to prevent prices from "rising further" and guarantee "social peace" in Germany. Currently, Russia provides Germany with 55 percent of the natural gas, 50 percent of the coal, and 35 percent of the oil consumed by its inhabitants."

    https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Germany-Cant-Stop-Importing-Russian-Energy-Habeck-20220303-0008.html

    Can we pressure the Saudis to boost production?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    JosiasJessop said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Obviously I support the idea in theory, and would ideally be fist to sign up, but I’ve got a bad leg you see? And these feet? Flat as a pancake. Not to mention my hayfever.
    I'd go but I'm volunteering to look after biggles.
    The two of you can't be left alone. I'll have to look after you.
    That’s what I like about this forum - so supportive.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    FrankBooth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "There was a revealing comment yesterday from Robert Habeck, the German economics minister. It is a comment that inadvertently suggests how Vladimir Putin will end up winning the war. Habeck said Germany would not agree to an import ban of Russian gas, oil and coal, because this would endanger the social peace in Germany. It is not clear whether he spoke for himself or the government. But as of now, we have reached the limits of meaningful sanctions. Germany ended Nord Stream 2 unilaterally. Germany raised its defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP, plus extra investments, again unilaterally. German reluctantly agreed to what turned out to be very limited sanctions on Russia’s exclusion from the Swift payment communications system. For now, this is it."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-putin-wins-the-war

    "On Thursday, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that he is not in favor of banning energy imports from Russia as they are necessary to prevent prices from "rising further" and guarantee "social peace" in Germany. Currently, Russia provides Germany with 55 percent of the natural gas, 50 percent of the coal, and 35 percent of the oil consumed by its inhabitants."

    https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Germany-Cant-Stop-Importing-Russian-Energy-Habeck-20220303-0008.html

    Can we pressure the Saudis to boost production?
    Will they even need pressuring? Seems like a chance to steal market share and broadly retain margins.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,695
    Zelensky should directly ask US citizens to donate their guns and ammo to his war effort.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    Cummings pro Putin?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    Jesus. Time for an unplanned trip to the southern hemisphere?
    Not sure why I came back from Cape Verde a week ago
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    I have a feeling that whenever Cummings opens his mouth now, his time in Russia may come up. And that’s only from the Tory comms machine.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,555
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499696220457127939

    "Belarusian forces will not take part in Ukraine war, Lukashenko says http://reut.rs/373MOXd"

    Not going to plan.

    Yes, IMO that's a good indication that tings are not going to plan for Russia.

    We should also talk to Lukashenko (if we are not already), and try to further divide him from Russia, isolating Putin further.
    Let's hope reality is dawning and he backs away from Putin
    The army needed Putin's troops to stop the protests after the last election. They've all now gone into Ukraine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Dura_Ace said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
    Let's hope Biden cools them all down over at NATO meeting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,369
    "The peace that could have been
    After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.
    Tim Black"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/02/26/the-peace-that-could-have-been/
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Not a surprise to see a Labour hold.

    Can anyone extrapolate out to the country from this result, whether the current polling is accurate or not? Looks like a swing to Labour consistent with the polls?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 915
    Think of all those lovely taxes going to the Treasury, would keep the Triple Lock in business!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,783
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    As has been pointed out, an interruption to electrical supply to the cooling for the nuclear waste ponds could be pretty dangerous, too. 'They didn't actually hit the reactor' is not particularly reassuring.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    rottenborough said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
    Let's hope Biden cools them all down over at NATO meeting.
    I’d like to think it’s deliberate Info Ops. Imply Russia is getting close to the line and hope wise heads prevail over there. I mean, there can’t be many Russian generals who actually approve of shelling a nuclear power plant.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,480
    I hope this is a QTWAIN!

    Seems unlikely to me considering just how much of the price of fuel is duty, a barrel of Brent Crude would really have to rocket much higher to get retail prices anywhere close to £2 surely?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,555
    We need to understand that Putin has engaged in threats that are probably sabre rattling. I think we can do a bit of sabre rattling ourselves, whether or not we would actually follow through on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    Andy_JS said:

    "The peace that could have been
    After the Cold War, the West had an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold.
    Tim Black"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/02/26/the-peace-that-could-have-been/

    Ugh, the 'we didn't try hard enough' silliness which robs other sides of their agency. Let's see if it is at least well written.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    theakes said:

    Think of all those lovely taxes going to the Treasury, would keep the Triple Lock in business!

    Are fuel taxes a percentage or a flat rate per litre?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    Cummings pro Putin?
    More throw ukr to the wolves to avoid nuclear war I think.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Not a surprise to see a Labour hold.

    Can anyone extrapolate out to the country from this result, whether the current polling is accurate or not? Looks like a swing to Labour consistent with the polls?

    % majority is the same as 2017 so it probably points towards a 2017 result.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,369
    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Especially since in 1986 Gorbachev came up with a plan to get rid of nuclear weapons altogether by the year 2000.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,987
    rottenborough said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
    Let's hope Biden cools them all down over at NATO meeting.
    I assume it's just part of keeping pressure up. Make him think its possible. Problem being he wont believe that unless it happens.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Stuartinromford said:

    Applicant said:

    FPT...

    Gary_Burton said:

    Applicant said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.

    To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
    As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
    We've lived with that for decades though.
    Also, I'm not sure that the result bears it out. Obviously the reduced turnout complicates the calcluations, but it looks to me like the direct swing from "the right" to "the left" outweighed movement within "the left".

    (Con/Ref 38.0 (-6.2); Lab/TUSC/Grn/LD 60.0 (+4.2) with Lab alone +5.2)
    The % Labour majority is pretty much the same as 2017.

    Also tallies with the 2018 local elections where despite the Tories doing well and winning several wards, Labour still did well across the constituency including still managing 37% in the Tories' Erdington stronghold.
    So very much consistent with a hung parliament and therefore with much of the other data we have at the moment.
    Yup. And the question is then what you think about the future.

    If the future is swing back from here, the Conservatives are sitting pretty.

    If the future is Things Can Only Get Worse, they're in fairly deep doodoo.

    Me? I think it'll be The Economy, Stupid and Vote Starmer Because He Can't Be Any Worse.
    Assuming there's no change in Tory leader, the latter point is likely to carry the day.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    Cookie said:

    theakes said:

    Think of all those lovely taxes going to the Treasury, would keep the Triple Lock in business!

    Are fuel taxes a percentage or a flat rate per litre?
    Both I think. Flat amount per litre but also don’t forget VAT.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    Cookie said:

    theakes said:

    Think of all those lovely taxes going to the Treasury, would keep the Triple Lock in business!

    Are fuel taxes a percentage or a flat rate per litre?
    From memory, a £1.50 litre is 75p tax, 50p fuel and 25p VAT (inc VAT on the tax). The 75p is fixed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    As has been pointed out, an interruption to electrical supply to the cooling for the nuclear waste ponds could be pretty dangerous, too. 'They didn't actually hit the reactor' is not particularly reassuring.
    I'll take all those old fuel rods off their hands, no problem. I can recycle them...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,636
    edited March 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Especially since in 1986 Gorbachev came up with a plan to get rid of nuclear weapons altogether by the year 2000.
    So that by 2022 only India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, and Israel would have any? Not sure I want to live in that universe….
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
    Let's hope Biden cools them all down over at NATO meeting.
    I assume it's just part of keeping pressure up. Make him think its possible. Problem being he wont believe that unless it happens.
    Maybe he wants it.

    Cements his position in total power if RU is facing full war?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    Jesus. Time for an unplanned trip to the southern hemisphere?
    Not sure why I came back from Cape Verde a week ago
    Did you enjoy it there? Wildlife is great, some good historical sites - but a bit of an edgy undertone I thought. (That said, it included a national day when everyone was very, very pissed!)
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,480
    Cookie said:

    theakes said:

    Think of all those lovely taxes going to the Treasury, would keep the Triple Lock in business!

    Are fuel taxes a percentage or a flat rate per litre?
    Both.

    From memory duty is fixed, but there's VAT on top of both the duty and the rest of the fuel price, so when the price goes up the Exchequer gets more VAT even without increasing Duty.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    rottenborough said:

    It is truly terrifying and sobering thought that generations X, millennial and older Z of UK citizens may well have to go and fight in europe in coming months/years to defeat fascism.

    This is what our (great) grandfathers did.

    It is almost impossible to take in that we will have to do it all again.

    Obviously I support the idea in theory, and would ideally be fist to sign up, but I’ve got a bad leg you see? And these feet? Flat as a pancake. Not to mention my hayfever.
    I'd go but I'm volunteering to look after biggles.
    Not all heroes wear capes.
    We can be the PB Battallion like the Football Battallion in WWI.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,103
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Not a surprise to see a Labour hold.

    Can anyone extrapolate out to the country from this result, whether the current polling is accurate or not? Looks like a swing to Labour consistent with the polls?

    :)
    image
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,695
    Quite impressive for a newly elected MP to have earnt the soubriquet "Bullets" during an unrelated war.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    I hope this is a QTWAIN!

    Seems unlikely to me considering just how much of the price of fuel is duty, a barrel of Brent Crude would really have to rocket much higher to get retail prices anywhere close to £2 surely?

    To sustain that level, yes. Brent Crude was at its current level 2011-2014. Other costs have increased, but not enough. However we could peak at £2 as a result of a supply shock,
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,103
    Highest price I've seen this week is diesel £1.61 at Shell, Ley Street, Ilford.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    Cummings pro Putin?
    More throw ukr to the wolves to avoid nuclear war I think.
    Calm heads and cool analysts need to think longer term about how Putin fails rather than 'the something must be done now' brigade who will get us all killed if not careful.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,138
    Cookie said:

    We have speculated about Putin's health here recently. We've also made comments about timing and readiness: we're a little puzzled that he invaded now, rather than in two months' time. Could it be that his health is even worse than we thought? That his time left can be measured in months rather than years? Is that the imperative for acting now?

    The question of why now is probably just the Olympics and not further pissing off China.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,429
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I wonder if last night's attack on the nuclear power station is the moment that changed this war, with NATO knowing that being bystanders while nuclear power stations are targets for Putin is not acceptable and calls his bluff

    The bluff would be that he hasn't got nukes [he has] or that he has no intention of using them [you want to bet on that]?

    Some VERY iffy tweets from cummings this morning, the missiles only hit a shed not the actual power plant therefore this is all hysterical propaganda by Ukraine. I think most people think missiles hitting sheds near power plants is a good 90% as concerning as hitting the actual plant.
    Cummings pro Putin?
    More throw ukr to the wolves to avoid nuclear war I think.
    Worth thinking about the fact that in a nuclear war, Ukraine would get nuked first, by Russia.

    Not sure that destroying Ukraine, to save it is the way to go.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    biggles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Breaking: Spain’s foreign minister says
    @NATO will discuss possible intervention and no-fly zone in Ukraine during a Friday summit of the US-led military alliance
    https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

    I was wondering if the escalation of indiscriminate bombing might prompt a reconsideration of the policy.

    Is it a provocative act to intervene in mass murder ?

    Good
    Madness.

    A no-fly zone means total war with Russia. Are we really ready for what that entails? I think not.

    This isn't like a no-fly zone over northern iraq. RU have a ton of air defences and so on. We would have to take them out to control the air.

    The first time NATO bombs a Growler launcher on the Russian side of the border, which they would certainly have to do, that's it. We're off to the races and anything's possible.

    Are we ready for a regimental strength Backfire incursion down the North Sea doing untold millions of pounds worth of improvements to Hartlepool?
    Let's hope Biden cools them all down over at NATO meeting.
    I’d like to think it’s deliberate Info Ops. Imply Russia is getting close to the line and hope wise heads prevail over there. I mean, there can’t be many Russian generals who actually approve of shelling a nuclear power plant.
    Given the total chaos, lack of comms etc, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that they were just shelling it because it said "power station" on their paper map, and the commander on the ground thought that looked like a sensible target.
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