Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.
I don't. I think Trump is unstable and inconsistent, but that is not the same thing as being unpredictable. On the contrary, it is usually pretty easy to predict what his response to something is, even if he manages to surprise, even now, on the gratuitous offensiveness or self aggrandizement of it. He has increcdibly thin skin, is easily goaded, and usually quite simplistic.
The point about Trump was the one thing I disagreed with Kisin about. Trump was so unpredictable he could have easily given away large parts of Europe to Putin. Biden seems to me to be a better guarantor of NATO and is more supportive of the principle of trying to contain Russia.
Trump was obviously receptive to doing a deal with Putin but it never happened, with Putin just preferring to freeze the conflict in Ukraine for the time of his presidency. There is nothing in this that suggests Trump would have dealt with the situation better than Putin.
@AliBunkallSKY UKRAINE: fear amongst western officials now is that Russia will start bombing Ukrainians indiscriminately and even with thermobaric weapons, if their progress continues to be impeded.
Yes, as I said earlier on here the Ukrainians are putting up a huge and valiant resistance. Putin will eventually reach for WMDs and near WMDs if he can't see a way out that doesn't involve a hugely embarrassing retreat into Donbass and Belarus.
I think it’s generally conceded that Putin’s “decapitation feint” has been unsuccessful, and hence he will need to revert to more traditional methods with a higher body count.
How long can he persist for? How long will the Ukrainians hold out? How long will the Russians put up with body bags?
Worryingly, I can’t see a feasible back-down track for Putin. He absolutely has to go “all-in” because the alternative is, what? being deposed?
I think the way he climbs down is to bomb the crap out of a few targets for a few days, he can even say "tomorrow I'm going to reduce x, y and z targets to dust, you have 24 hours to get out of those areas". Then he withdraws his troops to the disputed regions, maybe nibbling off just a little bit more territory, declares Ukraine "pacified" and unilaterally declares victory. Shades of GW Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech, only with more body bags.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
Vlad's chosen an odd time to invade: winds are strong across Europe and gas storage is near highs, just as domestic heating requirements are starting to drop.
How am I supposed to get a hotel ticket for the CL final in Paris to see Liverpool win Number 7 when the French Open is taking place at the same time.
Also, UEFA are still letting Russia/Russian teams play. Go full South Africa on them.
That would require UEFA to have scruples.....hears the Champions League theme tune in my head, this programme is bought to you in association with Gazprom...
Revive the Statute of Edward IV of 1477 banning football and mandating archery in it place.
Update it to Davy Crockett recoils rifles and we are good to go...
In 1608 - ""With the ffotebale...[there] hath beene greate disorder in our towne of Manchester we are told, and glasse windowes broken yearlye and spoyled by a companie of lewd and disordered persons ..."
And in 1608 they weren’t even snorting coke or setting off flares in their arse hole.
You’d be surprised…
I like the fact that no-one turned a hair at the idea of equipping Millwall fans with Davy Crockett's.
Think of the UK defence posture after that becomes known....
I don't quite share @PJohnson's nonsensical worldview but the fact is stocks have rallied strongly after yesterday's panic so the question is what has changed?
Reading various commentaries some suggest it may be the oil price hasn't climbed as quickly as many feared -maybe. Others suggest the sanctions regime put forward by the West isn't that strong - a lot of it is rhetoric - and therefore it's basically business as usual.
I did wonder why Gazprom or Rosneft weren't in the list of sanctioned companies - the cynic in me wonders whether somebody has been urging European Governments not to be too harsh on Russia (perhaps they have offered to "rein in" Putin to some degree).
So, where are we? Will Ukraine be partitioned down the Dniepro River with Kiev and everything to the east in the hands of a new pro-Russian Ukrainian state or will we see the whole country occupied? I suspect not though I'm so often wrong about most things I wonder why I bother.
I'm too young to remember Hungary 1956 - the tweets of Zelensky and the defiance of Klitschko remind me of some of the radio calls from Budapest and Sopron as the Russian tanks rolled in.
Let's hope our response to the humanitarian crisis will be powerful in its way.
I think it’s generally conceded that Putin’s “decapitation feint” has been unsuccessful, and hence he will need to revert to more traditional methods with a higher body count.
How long can he persist for? How long will the Ukrainians hold out? How long will the Russians put up with body bags?
Worryingly, I can’t see a feasible back-down track for Putin. He absolutely has to go “all-in” because the alternative is, what? being deposed?
I think the way he climbs down is to bomb the crap out of a few targets for a few days, he can even say "tomorrow I'm going to reduce x, y and z targets to dust, you have 24 hours to get out of those areas". Then he withdraws his troops to the disputed regions, maybe nibbling off just a little bit more territory, declares Ukraine "pacified" and unilaterally declares victory. Shades of GW Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech, only with more body bags.
I don't see an easy route like this to retreat that isn't a hugely embarrassing climbdown. The best case scenario is that Putin reaches for WMDs and the Russians initiate a coup to prevent millions of innocents from dying. I don't see it though. As David Herdson said, the whole Russian establishment has been concentrated into the Kremlin and there are simply no dissenters left.
How am I supposed to get a hotel ticket for the CL final in Paris to see Liverpool win Number 7 when the French Open is taking place at the same time.
Also, UEFA are still letting Russia/Russian teams play. Go full South Africa on them.
That would require UEFA to have scruples.....hears the Champions League theme tune in my head, this programme is bought to you in association with Gazprom...
Revive the Statute of Edward IV of 1477 banning football and mandating archery in it place.
Update it to Davy Crockett recoils rifles and we are good to go...
In 1608 - ""With the ffotebale...[there] hath beene greate disorder in our towne of Manchester we are told, and glasse windowes broken yearlye and spoyled by a companie of lewd and disordered persons ..."
And in 1608 they weren’t even snorting coke or setting off flares in their arse hole.
You’d be surprised…
I thought that’s what Guy Fawkes and co were up to in the parliament vaults and understandably nobody believed them.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
There’s a lot of posts on here urging and willing the Ukrainians to fight on, and trying to paint it as a fight they are doing well in, which I think disguises this is, in truth and fact leading to something just as horrible and difficult to except as the end of the Prague Spring with that invasion.
Someone posted here other day, after Russia went into Czechoslovakia, over next ten years they pilfered it.
At the crunch the Western world did not stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine this time. The dream of poor Ukrainians being in EU and getting wealthier and having nice things like western everyday people is over now, for time being, more days of terror and war in their country (not ours) won’t change that at all. In fact brilliant people like Zelenskiy and Klitchko and others we don’t even know their name might die.
I don’t feel as gung ho as PB today. It suddenly seems pointless to me. Is this anti Russian bloodlust just trying to hide the guilt? Carry on calling me a traitor and surrender monkey if you want, I would rather wake up tomorrow to a ceasefire and Zelenskiy in Minsk talking with Putin, than wake up to find it still going on.
The Ukrainians, or a great many of them anyway, may simply have decided that they prefer to gamble on a military solution and potentially die fighting than to suffer the slow garrotting that comes from being turned into another Belarus, and who are we to say that they're wrong?
Indeed. I don't know how this mess can be made better, but I'm not really inclined to over analyse people expressing hopes that the Ukrainians manage to undetake a spirited defence of their country.
The world and this situation remains a complex one, but is it being gung ho to find some hope at the sight, however brief it may be, of people fighting back against an aggressor? Is it not the height of navel gazing to analyse that as some deep message of seemingly sinister character, rather than just instinctive sympathy for an underdog?
I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.
The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.
En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?
Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.
Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?
It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.
I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:
I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.
Putins speech earlier in the week was a paradigm shift, intentionally or otherwise. It was seen as a claim on Finland, as much as it was on Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe. If Russia no longer respects Finlands status and neutrality, then Finland has to get ready to fight Russia again. NATO membership is the logical conclusion, as Finlands 200,000 (ish?) strong standing army could be otherwise be overrun, although Russia would perhaps find it difficult to govern after the invasion.
Putin's statement today suggests Russia would invade any non NATO member in Europe which applied for NATO membership, even Finland and Sweden.
Unfortunately for both it looks like that ship has sailed and they will have to heavily spend more on their own defence
The Russian army is struggling against an inferior opponent that's largely reliant on short range anti-tank weapons, light machine guns and reservists armed with AK-47s and petrol bombs. Somehow I doubt that Russia is in any position to attempt an amphibious assault on Stockholm right now.
The ideal moment for the Nordic neutrals to pick a side is whilst Putin hasn't the forces available, let alone in theatre, to retaliate against them.
Thanks to him I'm now supposed to be working this weekend and I have tickets for the Carabao Cup final as well.
If I miss it because of him I will be furious.
Sad news for PBers, this means my AV/Scottish independence thread won't be published this weekend. It would have been the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
@CNN Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Thanks to him I'm now supposed to be working this weekend and I have tickets for the Carabao Cup final as well.
If I miss it because of him I will be furious.
Sad news for PBers, this means my AV/Scotland thread won't be published this weekend. It would have been the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
Silver linings: if we do all end up being consumed by a Russian thermonuclear fireball next week then at least the final few days of our lives will have been refreshingly free of another boring mud slinging contest over Scotland.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature. .
Immediately, perhaps not, but in the longer term it is. Otherwise anyone attacked would be advised on humanitarian grounds to simply surrender.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
You fight wars to win them, and the brutality and attrition flow from that.
Personally I am cheering on Ukraine for its own sake, not as an ally (is it even an ally?) and I am very, very unhappy indeed with the irrational proposition that sanctions should be perversely tuned to hit ordinary Russians to compensate for the wholly imaginary demands we are apparently making (I'm not) of ordinary Ukrainians. Where's the sense or justice in that? Do you think anyone engaged in the high level planning of this war on the Russian side is not a billionaire? Or that it's the fault of the peasantry for voting for Putin in free and fair elections?
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
One small, sporting consequence of the invasion of Ukraine is that there is no chance of Russia following through on its plan of bidding for Euro 2028 — meaning that a joint bid by the UK and Ireland for Uefa’s tournament should go through unopposed.
Meanwhile, Fifa’s reluctant to move World Cup play-off matches away from Moscow next month was explained by its president Gianni Infantino — a grateful recipient of Russia’s Order of Friendship medal in 2019 — on the basis that the conflict may be “solved” by then, whatever that means. Infantino also refused to answer when asked if he was keeping the medal.
Thanks to him I'm now supposed to be working this weekend and I have tickets for the Carabao Cup final as well.
If I miss it because of him I will be furious.
Sad news for PBers, this means my AV/Scotland thread won't be published this weekend. It would have been the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
Silver linings: if we do all end up being consumed by a Russian thermonuclear fireball next week then at least the final few days of our lives will have been refreshingly free of another boring mud slinging contest over Scotland.
Are you new here? You think the number of airbursts over Faslane vs Devonport will pass unnoticed and undisputed?
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.
The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.
En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?
Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.
Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?
It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.
I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:
I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.
"you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't" My deep connections to Finland of some 60 years tell me you couldn't be more wrong, and not just from those who were displaced from Karelia.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Dunno. Maybe the Spectator will stop giving him glowing editorials.
Saw that mendacious shit Fraser Nelson on Swedish tv last week, spouting blatant lies. The audience just lapped it up. Anglophilia can be a crippling condition. One has a duty to pose probing questions.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
One of my best friends at uni was the spitting image of Ace Rimmer, complete with shades. At dinner he used to shout: "Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast!"
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature. .
Immediately, perhaps not, but in the longer term it is. Otherwise anyone attacked would be advised on humanitarian grounds to simply surrender.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
You fight wars to win them, and the brutality and attrition flow from that.
Personally I am cheering on Ukraine for its own sake, not as an ally (is it even an ally?) and I am very, very unhappy indeed with the irrational proposition that sanctions should be perversely tuned to hit ordinary Russians to compensate for the wholly imaginary demands we are apparently making (I'm not) of ordinary Ukrainians. Where's the sense or justice in that? Do you think anyone engaged in the high level planning of this war on the Russian side is not a billionaire? Or that it's the fault of the peasantry for voting for Putin in free and fair elections?
Craven capitulation and exactly the line that Putin would want you to take.
Why not just go the whole hog and oppose all sanctions on the basis that if they are effective enough to make Russia sit up and think they will also hurt the economic interests of UK companies and by implication innocent UK citizens on the other side of the trading arrangement?
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
There's got to be a good chance that this erosion of support will accelerate.
Another straw in the wind is that even the state owned RIA Novosti has fallen foul of the censors for information it published, and the Russian government is threatening to block Facebook.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
There's got to be a good chance that this erosion of support will accelerate.
The Russian elite need to know they will be sent into poverty by sanctions and the Russian middle class need to know their sons will endlessly die on Ukrainian soil. All for crazed Putin's reckless war against Slavic brothers.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Surely he's got to leave Kiev? I mean the Russian forces are barely miles away, no?
He's a brave guy indeed. I only wish I could be sure I'd be as brave in his situation.
Remarkable as he is it won't do his country any good if he's killed or captured.
Yes, he will. He will be a symbolic inspiration to his countrymen about how Ukrainians will never submit to Russia.
They don't need any more inspiration. They are at the knife already and giving their lives. They need an unquestionable legitimate government to attest to the suffering of the Ukrainian people. In general, we need a little more 10+ year thinking at a time of understandable immediate feeling.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Surely he's got to leave Kiev? I mean the Russian forces are barely miles away, no?
He's a brave guy indeed. I only wish I could be sure I'd be as brave in his situation.
Remarkable as he is it won't do his country any good if he's killed or captured.
Yes, he will. He will be a symbolic inspiration to his countrymen about how Ukrainians will never submit to Russia.
They don't need any more inspiration. They are at the knife already and giving their lives. They need an unquestionable legitimate government to attest to the suffering of the Ukrainian people. In general, we need a little more 10+ year thinking at a time of understandable immediate feeling.
There is a deputy president. And the existence of martyrs emboldens more people. The fact Zelensky is staying in Ukraine will be huge morale for the country.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Surely he's got to leave Kiev? I mean the Russian forces are barely miles away, no?
He's a brave guy indeed. I only wish I could be sure I'd be as brave in his situation.
Remarkable as he is it won't do his country any good if he's killed or captured.
Yes, he will. He will be a symbolic inspiration to his countrymen about how Ukrainians will never submit to Russia.
They don't need any more inspiration. They are at the knife already and giving their lives. They need an unquestionable legitimate government to attest to the suffering of the Ukrainian people. In general, we need a little more 10+ year thinking at a time of understandable immediate feeling.
Fuck me, I sense that you are on the second gin of the evening in Tunbridge Wells or thereabouts, but your finger is infallibly on the pulse of the Man in the Kyiv Street. A true gift.
you don't do that if you expect Putin to be around much longer
He can get away with that one back home as not explicitly critical of Putin. Putin's official position/lie is of course he did not want war either but has been forced into it.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
There's got to be a good chance that this erosion of support will accelerate.
The Russian elite need to know they will be sent into poverty by sanctions and the Russian middle class need to know their sons will endlessly die on Ukrainian soil. All for crazed Putin's reckless war against Slavic brothers.
I agree except it’s not the sons of the Russian middle class who will die - it’s the sons of the poor.
Anushka Asthana @AnushkaAsthana Boris Johnson has recorded a video in which he speaks in both Russian and Ukrainian tonight. Saying in Russian “To my friends I do not believe this war is in your name, it does not have to be this way” And in Ukrainian: “This crisis, this tragedy can and must come to an end. The world needs a free and sovereign Ukraine”. Sources say he decided to record the video after a conversation with president Zelensky this morning in which the Ukrainian leader asked for more help with military equipment but also if the pm could urge Russians to call for restraint https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1497272472512737284
Well now, poor Roman Abramovich is going to soon fall out of a window soon isn't he?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
There's got to be a good chance that this erosion of support will accelerate.
The Russian elite need to know they will be sent into poverty by sanctions and the Russian middle class need to know their sons will endlessly die on Ukrainian soil. All for crazed Putin's reckless war against Slavic brothers.
I agree except it’s not the sons of the Russian middle class who will die - it’s the sons of the poor.
Given the size of the Russian army, I think plenty of middle income families will have kids out there.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Chris Bryant is a fool, he was banging on about dual citizens yesterday. As if ordinary Russians have got a choice in this. A very good friend of mine is a UK/Russian dual national, she's not some oligarch or billionaire, she works for the NHS and was offended by the idea that because she's a dual national she's complicit in what Putin is doing.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature. .
Immediately, perhaps not, but in the longer term it is. Otherwise anyone attacked would be advised on humanitarian grounds to simply surrender.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
You fight wars to win them, and the brutality and attrition flow from that.
Personally I am cheering on Ukraine for its own sake, not as an ally (is it even an ally?) and I am very, very unhappy indeed with the irrational proposition that sanctions should be perversely tuned to hit ordinary Russians to compensate for the wholly imaginary demands we are apparently making (I'm not) of ordinary Ukrainians. Where's the sense or justice in that? Do you think anyone engaged in the high level planning of this war on the Russian side is not a billionaire? Or that it's the fault of the peasantry for voting for Putin in free and fair elections?
Craven capitulation and exactly the line that Putin would want you to take.
Why not just go the whole hog and oppose all sanctions on the basis that if they are effective enough to make Russia sit up and think they will also hurt the economic interests of UK companies and by implication innocent UK citizens on the other side of the trading arrangement?
Craven capitulation, not wanting to rub Ivan and Ivanka's faces in the dirt, just because?
As an exercise in untrammelled wankerdom your second paragraph will never be surpassed. How the holy fuck do we get from Target the Russian nomenklatura, not the rank and file, to You are really trying to protect the FTSE 100? I am going to take the wildest, most seat of my pants guess of a lifetime, and speculate that international jewry is probably somewhere in the equation, amiright?.
Also, this pleasure you derive from the thought of foreign, poor people being made to suffer? I'd see someone about that if I were you.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Fans should take Ukrainian colours to the matches on Saturday, sing Slava Ukrayini.
I'm tempted to wear the Ukrainian shirt on Sunday, if I can find one.
Liverpool need to play in their yellow strip on Sunday so when they have the line up on tv it will be a big wall of yellow and blue for the cameras - Liverpool fans should also all wear yellow so the crowd pictures also are a sea of yellow and blue.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
And if we look from what is happening, the disordered approach, to why, the why is each part of what could be a unified approach have allowed themselves to be exposed in different ways. Energy pipeline for example, Greek and Austrian banks.
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks they worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
How long would it take for the EU to decide where they were going to have the meeting at which they might, sometime in the foreseeable future, vote upon a unified, watered-down approach to Russia's aggression to a defeated Ukraine?
A month? Three months?
Sadly, this sort of crisis (and Covid) shows where the EU's centralised approach fails. It can be good in some situations. In others, it is disastrous.
You are proved right by, here we are, and the response is all over the place.
Did the Ukrainians really believe they would get more from the West? Or has it only dawned on them today? 😕
Thanks to him I'm now supposed to be working this weekend and I have tickets for the Carabao Cup final as well.
If I miss it because of him I will be furious.
Sad news for PBers, this means my AV/Scotland thread won't be published this weekend. It would have been the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
Silver linings: if we do all end up being consumed by a Russian thermonuclear fireball next week then at least the final few days of our lives will have been refreshingly free of another boring mud slinging contest over Scotland.
Are you new here? You think the number of airbursts over Faslane vs Devonport will pass unnoticed and undisputed?
Obviously posting from a lunatic asylum and not had their medication
Some people are utterly deluded yet 35,000+ follow him...
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
35,000 accounts That's not the same as 35,000 people
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
And if we look from what is happening, the disordered approach, to why, the why is each part of what could be a unified approach have allowed themselves to be exposed in different ways. Energy pipeline for example, Greek and Austrian banks.
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks they worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
How long would it take for the EU to decide where they were going to have the meeting at which they might, sometime in the foreseeable future, vote upon a unified, watered-down approach to Russia's aggression to a defeated Ukraine?
A month? Three months?
Sadly, this sort of crisis (and Covid) shows where the EU's centralised approach fails. It can be good in some situations. In others, it is disastrous.
You are proved right by, here we are, and the response is all over the place.
Did the Ukrainians really believe they would get more from the West? Or has it only dawned on them today? 😕
So I guess your latest talking point is to try to sow division between Ukraine and the West. Makes sense after the "war won't happen" claim is now pretty broken.
Mariusz Blaszczak @mblaszczak The convoy with the ammunition that we are handing over to Ukraine has already reached our neighbors. We support the Ukrainians, we stand in solidarity and we firmly oppose Russian aggression. https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143
I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.
The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.
En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?
Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.
Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?
It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.
I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:
I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.
"you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't" My deep connections to Finland of some 60 years tell me you couldn't be more wrong, and not just from those who were displaced from Karelia.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Dunno. Maybe the Spectator will stop giving him glowing editorials.
Saw that mendacious shit Fraser Nelson on Swedish tv last week, spouting blatant lies. The audience just lapped it up. Anglophilia can be a crippling condition. One has a duty to pose probing questions.
He is a bellend of bellends that one.
Not Good, Malcolm, your comments are boring at the moment and add nothing and say nothing except "I am a bad tempred and curmudgeionly old fart with an inflexible and rather ignorant world view".
I´m no fan of Fraser Nelson, but nobody is interested if all you can do is spout dull abuse.
Some people are utterly deluded yet 35,000+ follow him...
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
35,000 accounts That's not the same as 35,000 people
Half of them could be Leon.
Only half? What's the other nine-tenths of him doing?
On the subject of Putin and Russia, there are some positive signs today, but I would be very cautious about ever thinking that things are going well. For the last decade or so, he has always managed to turn things around to his advantage. I fear that will be the case here. Having been able to carry out an invasion without any meaningful opposition, his worst case scenario at the moment is to do some kind of ceasefire that gets him control of more of the country than he had before plus agreement that Ukraine will not join NATO. This will probably be celebrated as 'peace in our time' by the rest of the world, sanctions dropped, gas back on tap, business as usual. Sorry to be depressing.
Has Nordstream2 been 'cancelled'? If not, how long would it take to reverse the decision?
I wonder if Putin is betting on any sanctions being very short-lived once he wins and the world has to deal with the new reality.
Sending (say) anti-tank and other weapons are pretty irreversible.
The purpose of sanctions would be to punish Russian elites and hurt investment in the medium term in the hope that someone sane replaces Putin. Not to win a war against a madman who has already set his own young men on a road to death. Everything announced so far is sustainable for 10+ years, which is good.
From Putin's point of view, what hurts him are sanctions that cannot easily be reversed. If NS2's cancellation can be reversed in a day, then he wouldn't be too worried about it. All he needs to do is bribe the correct German politician.
Any sanction can be easily reversed that way.
Physical material cannot. Ammunition. Equipment. Or training.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
Vlad's chosen an odd time to invade: winds are strong across Europe and gas storage is near highs, just as domestic heating requirements are starting to drop.
"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Fans should take Ukrainian colours to the matches on Saturday, sing Slava Ukrayini.
Well Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine) is a salute, to which the the response is simply Heroiam slava (to the heros, glory). On the other hand the Ukrainian anthem is the kind of inspirational that makes the hairs on the back of your neck rise up..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzgViS4Rpf8&ab_channel=BlueMarbleNations
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
Chris Bryant is a legend, totally agree with him, seize Everton and Chelsea and close them down.
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
Just seeing a former US Ambassador being surprisingly chipper about things. Putin's got enough forces to take Kiev and maybe one other city but that's about it. The question is what then? He has next to no hope of installing a puppet government that can hold power. So what will it be? The one thing he always has is enormous air power to blow the place to smithereens.
The thing is that like Trump, Putin is a bad loser. That's what worries me.
I'm feeling that I want to do something that will make a difference, to ensure that we're not in even more danger in five years time, but I'm not sure what.
All the political discussion around the UK response seems to be centred on gradations of sanctions and Russian money. I can't find that any UK politician is talking about rearmament, so there is no-one to support in that. Is there a re-armament league, or similar pressure group? Writing a letter to my SNP MP seems pretty pointless.
Apparently I'm not quite too old for the Army Reserve, but I think my wife might divorce me if I applied for that, perhaps because she thinks it's obvious Russia will only be stopped by fighting.
I'm feeling really quite threatened, and want to do something useful about it.
Just seeing a former US Ambassador being surprisingly chipper about things. Putin's got enough forces to take Kiev and maybe one other city but that's about it. The question is what then? He has next to no hope of installing a puppet government that can hold power. So what will it be? The one thing he always has is enormous air power to blow the place to smithereens.
The thing is that like Trump, Putin is a bad loser. That's what worries me.
The rational thing looks like it would have been to take a couple of bites out of Ukraine, weaken the rest, dare the world to retaliate, wait and repeat.
That he hasn't done that makes it look more "beware of an old (mad)man in a hurry."
Just seeing a former US Ambassador being surprisingly chipper about things. Putin's got enough forces to take Kiev and maybe one other city but that's about it. The question is what then? He has next to no hope of installing a puppet government that can hold power. So what will it be? The one thing he always has is enormous air power to blow the place to smithereens.
The thing is that like Trump, Putin is a bad loser. That's what worries me.
If he orders carpet bombing on civilians, maybe that'll be the point when someone steps in.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
you demonstrate a misunderstanding of the market....lots of people shorted the initial invasion....the market is now frocing them out
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
There’s a lot of posts on here urging and willing the Ukrainians to fight on, and trying to paint it as a fight they are doing well in, which I think disguises this is, in truth and fact leading to something just as horrible and difficult to except as the end of the Prague Spring with that invasion.
Someone posted here other day, after Russia went into Czechoslovakia, over next ten years they pilfered it.
At the crunch the Western world did not stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine this time. The dream of poor Ukrainians being in EU and getting wealthier and having nice things like western everyday people is over now, for time being, more days of terror and war in their country (not ours) won’t change that at all. In fact brilliant people like Zelenskiy and Klitchko and others we don’t even know their name might die.
I don’t feel as gung ho as PB today. It suddenly seems pointless to me. Is this anti Russian bloodlust just trying to hide the guilt? Carry on calling me a traitor and surrender monkey if you want, I would rather wake up tomorrow to a ceasefire and Zelenskiy in Minsk talking with Putin, than wake up to find it still going on.
The Ukrainians, or a great many of them anyway, may simply have decided that they prefer to gamble on a military solution and potentially die fighting than to suffer the slow garrotting that comes from being turned into another Belarus, and who are we to say that they're wrong?
Indeed. I don't know how this mess can be made better, but I'm not really inclined to over analyse people expressing hopes that the Ukrainians manage to undetake a spirited defence of their country.
The world and this situation remains a complex one, but is it being gung ho to find some hope at the sight, however brief it may be, of people fighting back against an aggressor? Is it not the height of navel gazing to analyse that as some deep message of seemingly sinister character, rather than just instinctive sympathy for an underdog?
One things not complex. Obviously Russia is the aggressor here. Or just the twisted Putin regime (though people do think differently in sticks than cities). And if it was this country, I would take a machine gun and fight, at least until PM called a ceasefire. So I am right behind the Ukrainians who choose to do the same. I suspect most will.
But should leadership lead their people that far into the meat grinder? So when I said ceasefire and Zelenskiy talking, it was as a good leader not weak one I was thinking. Do you see what I mean? For how long should he let them get ground up? 😕
But We aren’t fighting Putin. Our country is not there with them, just trying to convince itself it is. That’s the bottom line I’m trying to say. We are armchair generals miles away urging others to fight and die against Putin for our relief? Relief from our anger and our guilt? Do you really get hope from watching them die today, whilst you are far away in an armchair, and if Sunday’s ceasefire came Saturday, they could have gone home to their families?
I’m not getting any hope or satisfaction from this, knowing it ends in broken families and a nations loss of freedom. Knowing that most powerful countries in the world standing by watching it, leaving them feeling betrayed. I’m just feeling more and more sad. 😕
I should switch it off. But I feel guilty about turning my head away from this fight too.
Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
the reason some right wingers support Putin by the way is they see him as potentially defending Christian values against a woke decadent west...they may be wrong but thats their reasoning
Everyone of them is a total moron. There is nothing Christian about murdering your neighbours.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
Vlad's chosen an odd time to invade: winds are strong across Europe and gas storage is near highs, just as domestic heating requirements are starting to drop.
Comments
Trump was obviously receptive to doing a deal with Putin but it never happened, with Putin just preferring to freeze the conflict in Ukraine for the time of his presidency. There is nothing in this that suggests Trump would have dealt with the situation better than Putin.
Think of the UK defence posture after that becomes known....
I don't quite share @PJohnson's nonsensical worldview but the fact is stocks have rallied strongly after yesterday's panic so the question is what has changed?
Reading various commentaries some suggest it may be the oil price hasn't climbed as quickly as many feared -maybe. Others suggest the sanctions regime put forward by the West isn't that strong - a lot of it is rhetoric - and therefore it's basically business as usual.
I did wonder why Gazprom or Rosneft weren't in the list of sanctioned companies - the cynic in me wonders whether somebody has been urging European Governments not to be too harsh on Russia (perhaps they have offered to "rein in" Putin to some degree).
So, where are we? Will Ukraine be partitioned down the Dniepro River with Kiev and everything to the east in the hands of a new pro-Russian Ukrainian state or will we see the whole country occupied? I suspect not though I'm so often wrong about most things I wonder why I bother.
I'm too young to remember Hungary 1956 - the tweets of Zelensky and the defiance of Klitschko remind me of some of the radio calls from Budapest and Sopron as the Russian tanks rolled in.
Let's hope our response to the humanitarian crisis will be powerful in its way.
Is there a more pernicious earworm?
The world and this situation remains a complex one, but is it being gung ho to find some hope at the sight, however brief it may be, of people fighting back against an aggressor? Is it not the height of navel gazing to analyse that as some deep message of seemingly sinister character, rather than just instinctive sympathy for an underdog?
The ideal moment for the Nordic neutrals to pick a side is whilst Putin hasn't the forces available, let alone in theatre, to retaliate against them.
Thanks to him I'm now supposed to be working this weekend and I have tickets for the Carabao Cup final as well.
If I miss it because of him I will be furious.
Sad news for PBers, this means my AV/Scottish independence thread won't be published this weekend. It would have been the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
I give you Baby Shark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auHzwB1wB2s
Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497189957395488778
What strange times we live in.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1497212896740315137?t=v9ax0UbUJj5VQqz2mM5-eg&s=19
Personally I am cheering on Ukraine for its own sake, not as an ally (is it even an ally?) and I am very, very unhappy indeed with the irrational proposition that sanctions should be perversely tuned to hit ordinary Russians to compensate for the wholly imaginary demands we are apparently making (I'm not) of ordinary Ukrainians. Where's the sense or justice in that? Do you think anyone engaged in the high level planning of this war on the Russian side is not a billionaire? Or that it's the fault of the peasantry for voting for Putin in free and fair elections?
A daughter of the Russian tycoon Roman Abramovich has added her voice to growing condemnation of President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Sofia Abramovich posted an image on Instagram showing the phrase “Russia wants a war with Ukraine” with the word Russia crossed out and replaced with “Putin”.
A second sentence read: “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russians stand with Putin.” It was followed by an image of Putin with a red line across him.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/roman-abramovich-s-daughter-condemns-putin-s-invasion-of-ukraine-csm3b8pnx
He's a brave guy indeed. I only wish I could be sure I'd be as brave in his situation.
One small, sporting consequence of the invasion of Ukraine is that there is no chance of Russia following through on its plan of bidding for Euro 2028 — meaning that a joint bid by the UK and Ireland for Uefa’s tournament should go through unopposed.
Meanwhile, Fifa’s reluctant to move World Cup play-off matches away from Moscow next month was explained by its president Gianni Infantino — a grateful recipient of Russia’s Order of Friendship medal in 2019 — on the basis that the conflict may be “solved” by then, whatever that means. Infantino also refused to answer when asked if he was keeping the medal.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stadium-moves-and-kit-colour-changes-set-to-require-fa-approval-k0zbxxzk8
Lets all pray its the start of a trend,
Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov have been told to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine if they want to avoid repeated calls for sanctions in parliament.
Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who declared in the Commons on Thursday that Abramovich is unfit to own Chelsea, has also implored on fans and players to join protests.
The Chelsea owner and influential Everton investor should already be among those to have assets frozen in retaliation for the outbreak of war in Europe, he told Telegraph Sport.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/25/roman-abramovich-alisher-usmanov-told-condemn-vladimir-putin/
She is right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-ZiI3iVgpM
One of my best friends at uni was the spitting image of Ace Rimmer, complete with shades. At dinner he used to shout: "Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast!"
He's bald now...
Putin's statues will be defaced.
Why not just go the whole hog and oppose all sanctions on the basis that if they are effective enough to make Russia sit up and think they will also hurt the economic interests of UK companies and by implication innocent UK citizens on the other side of the trading arrangement?
Russian tennis player Andrey Rublev, world number 7, wrote "No war please" on a camera lens during a tournament in Dubai
https://twitter.com/0419R7264968959/status/1497268382571417609
you don't do that if you expect Putin to be around much longer
@AnushkaAsthana
Boris Johnson has recorded a video in which he speaks in both Russian and Ukrainian tonight. Saying in Russian “To my friends I do not believe this war is in your name, it does not have to be this way”
And in Ukrainian: “This crisis, this tragedy can and must come to an end. The world needs a free and sovereign Ukraine”.
Sources say he decided to record the video after a conversation with president Zelensky this morning in which the Ukrainian leader asked for more help with military equipment but also if the pm could urge Russians to call for restraint
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1497272472512737284
As an exercise in untrammelled wankerdom your second paragraph will never be surpassed. How the holy fuck do we get from Target the Russian nomenklatura, not the rank and file, to You are really trying to protect the FTSE 100? I am going to take the wildest, most seat of my pants guess of a lifetime, and speculate that international jewry is probably somewhere in the equation, amiright?.
Also, this pleasure you derive from the thought of foreign, poor people being made to suffer? I'd see someone about that if I were you.
Did the Ukrainians really believe they would get more from the West? Or has it only dawned on them today? 😕
Putin is toast. That would not have happened under Uncle Joe and Lavrentiy.
Mariusz Blaszczak
@mblaszczak
The convoy with the ammunition that we are handing over to Ukraine has already reached our neighbors. We support the Ukrainians, we stand in solidarity and we firmly oppose Russian aggression.
https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143
нет война
I´m no fan of Fraser Nelson, but nobody is interested if all you can do is spout dull abuse.
I hope you never find out that my IRL surname is Cohen. My mother was a Lipschitz.
Words can be reversed easily.
"⚡️BREAKING: Kyiv home guard, the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade, now operate British-provided NLAWs.
Welcome to hell, motherfuckers."
It's pretty notable how much Russia has been unwilling/unable to make headway into urban areas. If they do it is going to be horrifically bloody for all involved.
Saturdays by appointment only, if you get my drift.
If there’s one thing that seems likely to come out of this, it’s a notable jump in the % of GDP that will need to be spent on defence, throughout the west, in the coming decade. That should be enough to knock a few % off the valuation of global stock markets. Instead, they seem to have discounted the war as economically irrelevant.
NEW THREAD
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60530513
The thing is that like Trump, Putin is a bad loser. That's what worries me.
All the political discussion around the UK response seems to be centred on gradations of sanctions and Russian money. I can't find that any UK politician is talking about rearmament, so there is no-one to support in that. Is there a re-armament league, or similar pressure group? Writing a letter to my SNP MP seems pretty pointless.
Apparently I'm not quite too old for the Army Reserve, but I think my wife might divorce me if I applied for that, perhaps because she thinks it's obvious Russia will only be stopped by fighting.
I'm feeling really quite threatened, and want to do something useful about it.
That he hasn't done that makes it look more "beware of an old (mad)man in a hurry."
But should leadership lead their people that far into the meat grinder? So when I said ceasefire and Zelenskiy talking, it was as a good leader not weak one I was thinking. Do you see what I mean? For how long should he let them get ground up? 😕
But We aren’t fighting Putin. Our country is not there with them, just trying to convince itself it is. That’s the bottom line I’m trying to say. We are armchair generals miles away urging others to fight and die against Putin for our relief? Relief from our anger and our guilt? Do you really get hope from watching them die today, whilst you are far away in an armchair, and if Sunday’s ceasefire came Saturday, they could have gone home to their families?
I’m not getting any hope or satisfaction from this, knowing it ends in broken families and a nations loss of freedom. Knowing that most powerful countries in the world standing by watching it, leaving them feeling betrayed. I’m just feeling more and more sad. 😕
I should switch it off. But I feel guilty about turning my head away from this fight too.
Bad times.