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What should the West do? the UK view of a range of suggestions – YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,779
    edited February 2022
    Maybe Putin has totally lost the plot.

    "Jason Groves
    @JasonGroves1

    Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

    2:51 PM · Feb 25, 2022"

    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1497222749252632583
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited February 2022

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    I remember seeing a report about an online covid conference with him about a year ago now, and being struck that there was something quite noticeably odd and new about his expression. His face looked permanently curled into some sort of passively malign, but also almost frozen or medicated, sneer. He's had this for about 18 months now ; he now looks physically unwell, too.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,477
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

    https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842?

    “The EU is preparing to freeze the assets of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a third round of sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.”

    Wow! Getting seriously tough on them now then. 🙄

    Wasn’t this done years ago? How many times down the years can they keep announcing this?

    Meanwhile, Zelenskiy latest address has said:

    * UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ACCUSES EUROPE OF INSUFFICIENT REACTION, SLOW HELP TO UKRAINE
    * UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIAN ASSAULT LIKE REPEAT OF WORLD WAR TWO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT CALLS ON EUROPEAN CITIZENS TO PROTEST TO FORCE THEIR GOVERNMENTS TO MORE DECISIVELY
    Moved on from the more harmonious talk of allies, which is fair enough.
    He doesn’t regard us as shoulder to shoulder, although UK government still spinning that impression out for internal consumption.

    What do we make of this bit. Does Zelenskiy really want to surrender to neutrality in talks with Putin?

    Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s recent comments as he called on Vladimir Putin to sit return to the negotiation table.
    In a televised statement today, Zelenskiy said he is calling on the Russian leader to negotiate to put an end to the fighting.

    Will Zelenskiy stay alive to allow Moscow to use him as a puppet? Or give himself both barrels like Allende. Or flee to Spain like Peron?

    Allende shot himself rather than be used as a puppet. Will Zelenskiy Putin puppet and neutral Ukraine be the end game and some sort of closure? If so, it means the NATO position of not really helping, and the fact sanctions and other help has been rubbish is justified, and could have come from our intelligence suggesting Zelenskiy would end up doing this?

    My prediction is Zelenskiy will be in Moscow having talks very soon.
    Presumably the negotiations could be done on Teams/Zoom?
    It could be I agree with you. But if Russia dictate where, Zelenskiy will be flown to Moscow as I suspect.

    Does PB think Zelenskiy is serious about discussing Ukraine neutrality with Moscow?
    I think it would be neutrality at the point of a gun, but he'd be under a lot of pressure from all sides to agree that as privately it would be less of a headache for the West to accept that even if officially they csnt say it.
    I think that right. What it effectively means is constitution no longer calls for NATO membership - they have never even put in an application and even the most ardent NATO supporters on this forum reckon there’s no chance of it being approved?

    Also, in the crunch, as West never really stood shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, either militarily or with strong sanctions, this may just have pushed Ukraine government a little bit back East. The tricky Eastern Ukraine border would calm down to.

    “ it would be less of a headache for the West to accept that even if officially they csnt say it. “ as you say, NATO HQ, EU, Washington, London would all sigh privately - thank God for that....
    if you think that's the limit of Putin's demands, then I think you're being naive.
    Does Putin have a stronger easier alternative than use Zelenskiy, if Zelenskiy willing to talk on that?

    Go on spell out what you think.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    Foxy said:

    What's clear is that is that if Moscow had hopes of quick and easy gains, they were terribly optimistic. My main concern is that over time the Russian military may revert to heavy use of firepower, and this will result in immense destruction, and large civilian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497227242233077766?

    I think that highly likely.

    City fighting evens things up a lot. Plenty of cover for snipers and anti tank weapons. Use of air power and artillery highly destructive, as we saw in Syria. I think that would be the Russian plan B.
    I wonder how the Russian military establishment will be viewing Putin if that happens.
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    Biden has made his decision.

    Ketanji Brown Jackson https://www.whitehouse.gov/kbj/
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    edited February 2022
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    No maybe about it.
    I wonder if there is a coup being plotted - he is 69 - and this is a desperate distraction he has created
    Bloody fool thing to do if so. What's the first rule when facing a coup? Don't Piss Off The Army.
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    Side benefit of Brexit - one less Putinist mole at the EU emergency summit.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,732
    ydoethur said:

    The view of the American public:

    Views of Russia are tanking.

    85% now view it unfavorably -- the highest since the end of the Cold War.

    http://on.gallup.com/3BRjqP1


    https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1497199646699102209

    They were a lot faster off the mark than some of their politicians during the Falklands too.

    Nonetheless a former President, former Mayor of NY, ex-Editor of Breitbart and most Fox News presenters remain behind the eight ball.
    Dare we hope that Putin's miscalculation will not only result in his own removal but also the end of Trump's malign influence?
    Ironically, Trump, who got elected by telling people what they wanted to hear, is now pro-vaccine and pro-Putin when his supporters are not.

    That could be costly for him.
    I can't see it doing Le Pen much good either.

    Currently 1.86 on Smarkets to not make the second round. Reasonable value. Though Pecresse making it at 5.3 may be better value.

    Zemmour and Melenchon have been openly pro Putin too.

    https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1496948847767334914?t=Sd2GYNVgz0hI-hE7bIeH5Q&s=19

    Or maybe just back Macron.

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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2022

    LDLF said:

    I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

    The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

    En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

    Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

    Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
    Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

    It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

    I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
    Russians got a bloody nose when they tried to invade in 1939.
    Sadly the Russians did win in the end and took 10% of pre-war Finnish territory including its second-largest city and only arctic port.

    OTOH, Stalin almost certainly wanted to at least impose a communist government, and set up in the border town of Terijoki the so-called Finnish Democratic Republic as an alternative regime. Probably the FDR would have then "requested" to be admitted to the USSR, similar to how the imposed communist governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did in 1940.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992

    LDLF said:

    I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

    The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

    En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

    Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

    Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
    Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

    It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

    I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
    42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/

    Recent events may have shifted attitudes, though. A Feb poll by the Farmers' Union suggests 45-33 in favour:

    https://yle.fi/news/3-12305027#:~:text=A fresh poll commissioned and published by the,that membership were recommended by the nation's leaders

    I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.

    There was also some admiration for the way the Finns fought. Their mobile, ski-based guerrilla tactics were made use of on the Eastern Front by the Soviets.
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    I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

    From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.
    Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.
    Point of order.

    Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?
    Because OFCOM are still investigating.
    I think its interesting that they are allowed to broadcast their misinformation on YouTube without sanction. YouTube and other social media companies have been quick to shut down others who continually broadcast falsehoods.
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    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!
    Putin's not a leftie either!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

    From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.
    Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.
    Point of order.

    Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?
    Because OFCOM are still investigating.
    I think its interesting that they are allowed to broadcast their misinformation on YouTube without sanction. YouTube and other social media companies have been quick to shut down others who continually broadcast falsehoods.
    The irony of course is that if there is trouble in Russia over a bungled invasion it will be social media that spreads the information...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Sweden?
    He truly has lost it.
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    MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    Draghi really is a twit - I wonder what possibly might have delayed the President of Ukraine from ordering some fine leather goods taking a phone call?

    Italian PM Draghi: "We had a phone appointment at 9.30am [with Zelensky], but it was not possible to make the call, he was no longer available."
    Yes, PM #Draghi, Ukrainians are busy with tanks and rockets. Italy is not helping much. #SWIFT


    That remark led to a flurry of stories about Zelenskyy having fled Kyiv…..notably promoted by China State media.

    Draghi is most certainly not a twit.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited February 2022

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    What an absolute fu***ing lunatic. And I rarely swear.
    Ah your spelling is off should be 'footling' !
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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,971
    Jumping the gun and being probably overly optimistic I hope very much that, if Russia has to withdraw with their tails between their legs, absolutely none of the sanctions in place will be removed at all until Russia pays Ukraine giant reparations from their foreign currency reserve.

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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796
    Disaster backpedalling from all sorts of Russians. Fuck off.
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    Germany‘s 5000 helmets are finally on their way in two trucks. They will be given to the Ukrainian authorities outside their country, in order to avoid any risk for the German side, according to @dpa

    https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497230857207263239
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    edited February 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Sweden?
    He truly has lost it.
    Suggests if Scotland ever got independence if an indyref2 was allowed by the UK government and a Yes vote which Westminster implemented, then Putin would also threaten Scotland if it tried to join NATO.

    Salmond as head of a puppet regime even
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    Taz said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    Pants on his head, pencils up his nose.
    "The war started because of the vile Russians and their villainous empire-building!"
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government.
    That really is having lost all touch with reality.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
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    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LXXA6hsATDE
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    No maybe about it.
    I wonder if there is a coup being plotted - he is 69 - and this is a desperate distraction he has created
    Bloody fool thing to do if so. What's the first rule when facing a coup? Don't Piss Off The Army.
    The type of error to be expected from a modern historian. The true rule is that if the Praetorian Guard is on side and paid up to date, the rest of the army can go screw itself.

    Wallace's "tonto" diagnosis is surprsingly bang on the money. I expect things to get very very messy in the Kremlin, but regime change is coming, and if the new regime wants to ingratiate itself with the army it will withdraw.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Well, am back in A&E following a 111 call. A daft thing really but tiresome - a thumb infection which has lasted a week and is now getting worse and painful. I'll spare you the gory details.

    3rd time in 2 years my immune system has been unable to fight off a small infection. Not ideal.

    The wait is estimated to be 5 hours .........

    Infuriatingly it's quite spring like outside .....

    Wish you better, Cyclefree, and do take care. Those things can be very nasty.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
    https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1497008826201124870
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,477
    felix said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

    I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

    (p.s. I loathe Putin)
    If you consider JJ to be a right winger then your whole political compass is terminally skewed.
    Everyone who disagrees is an 'extreme right-winger' in Heathener's world.
    Well I am right of centre, but It’s true though that once this crisis recedes and domestic politics truce eased off, the questions of Tory Party embracing money from Russia, McMafia Oligarchs and China, and the whitewashed Russia interference report, especially from between Salisbury outrage and Ukraine invasion, is going to be top of the political agenda for some time, isn’t it? Partly because Boris is an attack minded politician, he pulled the rug from under Starmer’s attack on Wednesday by referring to Barry Gardner, so question marks how this lazy politician will play it.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    boulay said:

    Jumping the gun and being probably overly optimistic I hope very much that, if Russia has to withdraw with their tails between their legs, absolutely none of the sanctions in place will be removed at all until Russia pays Ukraine giant reparations from their foreign currency reserve.

    And withdraws form the Crimean Peninsular.
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    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832
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    Mango said:

    Draghi really is a twit - I wonder what possibly might have delayed the President of Ukraine from ordering some fine leather goods taking a phone call?

    Italian PM Draghi: "We had a phone appointment at 9.30am [with Zelensky], but it was not possible to make the call, he was no longer available."
    Yes, PM #Draghi, Ukrainians are busy with tanks and rockets. Italy is not helping much. #SWIFT


    That remark led to a flurry of stories about Zelenskyy having fled Kyiv…..notably promoted by China State media.

    Draghi is most certainly not a twit.
    You think he was deliberately helping the Russian cause?
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    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    The Moldovans are saying they believe it was a Ukrainian registered ship but (ironically) with a Russian crew.
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    Squad of Chechen special forces ‘hunters’ is unleashed in Ukraine to detain - or kill - Kyiv officials

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10551327/Chechen-special-forces-hunters-unleashed-Ukraine-detain-kill-Kyiv-officials.html
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,255

    Taz said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    Pants on his head, pencils up his nose.
    "The war started because of the vile Russians and their villainous empire-building!"
    You mean it’s time to give good old vlad six of the best, trousers down ?
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797

    LDLF said:

    I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

    The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

    En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

    Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

    Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
    Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

    It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

    I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
    42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/

    Recent events may have shifted attitudes, though. A Feb poll by the Farmers' Union suggests 45-33 in favour:

    https://yle.fi/news/3-12305027#:~:text=A fresh poll commissioned and published by the,that membership were recommended by the nation's leaders

    I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.

    Putins speech earlier in the week was a paradigm shift, intentionally or otherwise. It was seen as a claim on Finland, as much as it was on Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe. If Russia no longer respects Finlands status and neutrality, then Finland has to get ready to fight Russia again. NATO membership is the logical conclusion, as Finlands 200,000 (ish?) strong standing army could be otherwise be overrun, although Russia would perhaps find it difficult to govern after the invasion.
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    Russia appears to have lost some of its momentum, still hasn't achieved air superiority over Ukraine - US official

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497234481794584580
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    darkage said:

    LDLF said:

    I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

    The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

    En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

    Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

    Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
    Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

    It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

    I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
    42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/

    Recent events may have shifted attitudes, though. A Feb poll by the Farmers' Union suggests 45-33 in favour:

    https://yle.fi/news/3-12305027#:~:text=A fresh poll commissioned and published by the,that membership were recommended by the nation's leaders

    I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.

    Putins speech earlier in the week was a paradigm shift, intentionally or otherwise. It was seen as a claim on Finland, as much as it was on Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe. If Russia no longer respects Finlands status and neutrality, then Finland has to get ready to fight Russia again. NATO membership is the logical conclusion, as Finlands 200,000 (ish?) strong standing army could be otherwise be overrun, although Russia would perhaps find it difficult to govern after the invasion.
    Putin's statement today suggests Russia would invade any non NATO member in Europe which applied for NATO membership, even Finland and Sweden.

    Unfortunately for both it looks like that ship has sailed and they will have to heavily spend more on their own defence
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

    From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.
    Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.
    Point of order.

    Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?
    Because OFCOM are still investigating.
    I think its interesting that they are allowed to broadcast their misinformation on YouTube without sanction. YouTube and other social media companies have been quick to shut down others who continually broadcast falsehoods.
    Generally YouTubs policy's annoy me.

    However at this point in time is probably good for youTube not to give Russia an excuse to ban Youtube in Russia. Yes there would be workarounds VPNs and so n but not everybody uses one of those, and videos of Russian tanks burning, and Ukrainians resisting, will, I suspect be the thing that terns Russian public opinion against Putin.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,971
    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
    https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1497008826201124870
    I'm not sure whether to laugh or not, but as a glorious act of defiance it puts Cambronne's famous (and apocryphal) 'merde' at Waterloo rather in the shade. Even if it ended rather more tragically for those sending it than it did for Cambronne.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    The Moldovans are saying they believe it was a Ukrainian registered ship but (ironically) with a Russian crew.
    So just to be clear - the Russians are so confused they're now firing at their own people?

    This is extraordinary.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,732
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, am back in A&E following a 111 call. A daft thing really but tiresome - a thumb infection which has lasted a week and is now getting worse and painful. I'll spare you the gory details.

    3rd time in 2 years my immune system has been unable to fight off a small infection. Not ideal.

    The wait is estimated to be 5 hours .........

    Infuriatingly it's quite spring like outside .....

    Not nice.
    Right not to neglect such things as they can turn nasty very quickly. Hope you're better soon.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    boulay said:

    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.

    Who have you cast as Khrushchev and Zhukov?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Russia appears to have lost some of its momentum, still hasn't achieved air superiority over Ukraine - US official

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497234481794584580

    If true, that's very surprising.

    However, it might mean that poor Ukrainian resistance on the ground hasn't made it worth putting too many aircraft into an environment with many MANPADs - in other words, they haven't needed air superiority. I hope that's not the case.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    The Ukranian government has given out 18,000 guns to all civilians who wish to stay and help defend Kyiv

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447
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    Germany‘s 5000 helmets are finally on their way in two trucks. They will be given to the Ukrainian authorities outside their country, in order to avoid any risk for the German side, according to @dpa

    https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497230857207263239

    Juergen F 🧑‍🚒🚒🇵🇱 🇮🇱@Koenigstiger59
    Vienna's mayor has sent 3 trucks with FFP2 protective masks to Kiev. is even more embarrassing.
    https://twitter.com/Koenigstiger59/status/1497236117053218817
  • Options
    Michael Kofman
    @KofmanMichael
    ·
    42m
    What's clear is that is that if Moscow had hopes of quick and easy gains, they were terribly optimistic. My main concern is that over time the Russian military may revert to heavy use of firepower, and this will result in immense destruction, and large civilian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    edited February 2022
    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    ydoethur said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
    https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1497008826201124870
    I'm not sure whether to laugh or not, but as a glorious act of defiance it puts Cambronne's famous (and apocryphal) 'merde' at Waterloo rather in the shade. Even if it ended rather more tragically for those sending it than it did for Cambronne.
    Q - "Should I tell him to go fuck himself?"
    A - "Just in case"

    Sounded like the answer was from a woman?
  • Options
    I was just reading up on klitschko brothers, I didn't realise that they were actually born in Kyrgyzstan and their father was a Soviet Air Force major general who was based all across the former USSR.

    Its a glimpse into how complex many people's family roots are in that part of the world.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    And this is how Putin's hideous adventurism spreads. This time we were lucky. It won't be hard for other countries to get dragged in. Another MH17?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Idrees Ali
    @idreesali114
    U.S. defense official says Russian advance towards Kyiv going slower than Russia anticipated and advance towards Kharkiv still contested.

    U.S. has indications that amphibious assault underway west of Mariupol, official says.

    U.S. official says Russia has not taken any population centers and they do not have air superiority over country. Russia has so far launched more 200 missiles against Ukrainian targets, official says.

    U.S assesses Russia has committed third of forces around Ukraine to offensive, official says .


    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1497233416949051393
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,732

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

    https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842?

    “The EU is preparing to freeze the assets of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a third round of sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.”

    Wow! Getting seriously tough on them now then. 🙄

    Wasn’t this done years ago? How many times down the years can they keep announcing this?

    Meanwhile, Zelenskiy latest address has said:

    * UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ACCUSES EUROPE OF INSUFFICIENT REACTION, SLOW HELP TO UKRAINE
    * UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIAN ASSAULT LIKE REPEAT OF WORLD WAR TWO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT CALLS ON EUROPEAN CITIZENS TO PROTEST TO FORCE THEIR GOVERNMENTS TO MORE DECISIVELY
    Moved on from the more harmonious talk of allies, which is fair enough.
    He doesn’t regard us as shoulder to shoulder, although UK government still spinning that impression out for internal consumption.

    What do we make of this bit. Does Zelenskiy really want to surrender to neutrality in talks with Putin?

    Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s recent comments as he called on Vladimir Putin to sit return to the negotiation table.
    In a televised statement today, Zelenskiy said he is calling on the Russian leader to negotiate to put an end to the fighting.

    Will Zelenskiy stay alive to allow Moscow to use him as a puppet? Or give himself both barrels like Allende. Or flee to Spain like Peron?

    Allende shot himself rather than be used as a puppet. Will Zelenskiy Putin puppet and neutral Ukraine be the end game and some sort of closure? If so, it means the NATO position of not really helping, and the fact sanctions and other help has been rubbish is justified, and could have come from our intelligence suggesting Zelenskiy would end up doing this?

    My prediction is Zelenskiy will be in Moscow having talks very soon.
    Presumably the negotiations could be done on Teams/Zoom?
    It could be I agree with you. But if Russia dictate where, Zelenskiy will be flown to Moscow as I suspect.

    Does PB think Zelenskiy is serious about discussing Ukraine neutrality with Moscow?
    I think it would be neutrality at the point of a gun, but he'd be under a lot of pressure from all sides to agree that as privately it would be less of a headache for the West to accept that even if officially they csnt say it.
    I think that right. What it effectively means is constitution no longer calls for NATO membership - they have never even put in an application and even the most ardent NATO supporters on this forum reckon there’s no chance of it being approved?

    Also, in the crunch, as West never really stood shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, either militarily or with strong sanctions, this may just have pushed Ukraine government a little bit back East. The tricky Eastern Ukraine border would calm down to.

    “ it would be less of a headache for the West to accept that even if officially they csnt say it. “ as you say, NATO HQ, EU, Washington, London would all sigh privately - thank God for that....
    if you think that's the limit of Putin's demands, then I think you're being naive.
    Does Putin have a stronger easier alternative than use Zelenskiy, if Zelenskiy willing to talk on that?

    Go on spell out what you think.
    The Russian condition for talks is that the Ukrainians put down their weapons - ie surrender. It would be a one way trip for Zelensky.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    dixiedean said:

    Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government.
    That really is having lost all touch with reality.

    I think he's beginning to realise the scale of the task ahead and just how many losses Russia will end up having to take to get control of the government apparatus.
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,454
    nico679 said:

    Russia doesn’t want street battles as the body bags would pile up and that would result in higher Ukrainian civilian casualties.

    Given many Russians have family links with Ukraine this could cause problems for Putin.

    It's one thing using your air force to bomb cities in far-away Syria, quite another to do that to cities in next door Ukraine. So not really an option, surely.

    And the thought of hand-to-hand fighting...Jeez. (BBC just reported that 18,000 guns have been given to volunteers, alongside instructions to make Molotov cocktail).

    Could be extraordinarily ugly. Has Vlad really thought this through?
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    ydoethur said:

    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    The Moldovans are saying they believe it was a Ukrainian registered ship but (ironically) with a Russian crew.
    So just to be clear - the Russians are so confused they're now firing at their own people?

    This is extraordinary.
    You never heard of "friendly fire"?

    Here's an example in the North Sea:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

    I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

    (p.s. I loathe Putin)
    It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."

    Or similar. As you did in your post.

    (*) excepting myself
    I think the Russians have found it more successful to fund fringe Western political ideas and leaders that cause division and chaos.
    Oh, they can do both. In fact, it's well known they have been.

    And to be clear: PB may be a fringe website, but it'd be a good target for misinfo because of the readership and the (generally) reasonable quality of comments.
  • Options

    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

    If Putin gets bogged down in a war of attrition lasting weeks - how long before the generals (who are already rumoured to not be happy about Mad Vlad) start to get more seriously uppity?

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    boulay said:

    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.


    Brezhnev: [points to one of the rifles] I'll take the tall blonde.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    The Moldovans are saying they believe it was a Ukrainian registered ship but (ironically) with a Russian crew.
    So just to be clear - the Russians are so confused they're now firing at their own people?

    This is extraordinary.
    You never heard of "friendly fire"?

    Here's an example in the North Sea:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident
    Yes, but this isn't friendly fire, is it? It's targeting the Russian speakers they're supposed to be helping!
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,971
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.

    Who have you cast as Khrushchev and Zhukov?
    I don’t know but I’m desperately hoping this guy replaces Putin (he’s one of Russia’s biggest stars apparently….).

    https://youtu.be/989-7xsRLR4
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,477

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!
    Putin's not a leftie either!
    He’s not. But so many left wing and right wing minds are hot wired and living in the past, such as the 12 Labour politicians and their letter so predictably supported Putin, they can’t tell the difference from communists or Putin in the Kremlin.

    In his last election he campaigned on Conservative values, his support for Russian church etc. sort of things the Marxists had no time for and worse by their actions.
  • Options

    Germany‘s 5000 helmets are finally on their way in two trucks. They will be given to the Ukrainian authorities outside their country, in order to avoid any risk for the German side, according to @dpa

    https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497230857207263239

    Juergen F 🧑‍🚒🚒🇵🇱 🇮🇱@Koenigstiger59
    Vienna's mayor has sent 3 trucks with FFP2 protective masks to Kiev. is even more embarrassing.
    https://twitter.com/Koenigstiger59/status/1497236117053218817
    And there are those on here who try to excuse this behaviour
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie! It’s also clear I’m trying to delve into facts behind the arguments and deliver cold sober analysis and what comes next.

    Seriously, Jos, how do you see comings weeks pan out in this war and ceasefire abroad, and politics domestically in UK, that’s different than what I said in this thread?

    I think the fact this happened throws up so many questions, once the war abates, the arguments in the West will really intensify. Lots of lessons to be learned, legacy and behaviour to be trashed or defended, between the western powers, but also in each countries domestic politics.

    And there is not just the question of how, but why. Some on this forum say Putin mentally I’ll and Russian Nationalist in equal measure, Putin says it’s about security nukes in Cuba style, Trump and supporters say Putin has a point.

    I’d like to add a third cause. Deep deep thinking from me, maybe it was Ukraine getting richer in EU in contrast across Russian border that mostly spooks Moscow.
    I have got no idea how how the current situation will pan out. There's what I *want* to happen (Russia to lose, Ukraine to remain a sovereign democratic state), but that's unlikely. We're sitting at the edge of a precipice, and something trivial might knock us over the edge.

    I don't actually care much about the domestic angle atm. Andy anger should be directed firmly where it's needed: Putin.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
    https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1497008826201124870
    I'm not sure whether to laugh or not, but as a glorious act of defiance it puts Cambronne's famous (and apocryphal) 'merde' at Waterloo rather in the shade. Even if it ended rather more tragically for those sending it than it did for Cambronne.
    Q - "Should I tell him to go fuck himself?"
    A - "Just in case"

    Sounded like the answer was from a woman?
    Probably. Remember, they were border police. In any case, I believe Ukraine does allow women to serve in the army.
  • Options
    boulay said:

    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.

    maybe but Biden is hardly in great shape either...war is stressful for everyone even Putin
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504

    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

    Maybe the Ukrainians are fucking good at Creme Brûlée?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

    I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

    (p.s. I loathe Putin)
    It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."

    Or similar. As you did in your post.

    (*) excepting myself
    This post is just silly Jos, youve shown before you are better than this.
    Why is it silly? If you had to do it, isn't that what you would do?

    A good sockpuppet would alter their arguments for the audience.
  • Options

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

    I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

    (p.s. I loathe Putin)
    It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."

    Or similar. As you did in your post.

    (*) excepting myself
    I think the Russians have found it more successful to fund fringe Western political ideas and leaders that cause division and chaos.
    Oh, they can do both. In fact, it's well known they have been.

    And to be clear: PB may be a fringe website, but it'd be a good target for misinfo because of the readership and the (generally) reasonable quality of comments.
    I would have thought it a bad site for misinfo as clearly incorrect things are regularly challenged quickly on here, and it is not easy to share a pb quote with a mass audience anyway (apart from the journalists who enjoy lifting articles from here, changing a few words and claiming them as their own work).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    PJohnson said:

    boulay said:

    Holy fuck - just seen Putin’s address to his permanent security council where he blames US advisers corrupting the Ukrainians and the whole drug addled bit.

    He doesn’t look remotely well!

    It’s almost funny if it wasn’t for the completely sickening, pointless, tragic deaths being caused by this dough faced murdering fuck.

    He’s almost turned into a comedy character from the Death of Stalin and I’m hoping he goes very soon like Beria.

    maybe but Biden is hardly in great shape either...war is stressful for everyone even Putin
    Then maybe he shouldn't have fecking started one.
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    dixiedean said:

    Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government.
    That really is having lost all touch with reality.

    It's for the consumption of his own people. They know he is lying. He knows they know he is lying. And so on...
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    the reason some right wingers support Putin by the way is they see him as potentially defending Christian values against a woke decadent west...they may be wrong but thats their reasoning
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Sweden?
    He truly has lost it.
    Suggests if Scotland ever got independence if an indyref2 was allowed by the UK government and a Yes vote which Westminster implemented, then Putin would also threaten Scotland if it tried to join NATO.

    Salmond as head of a puppet regime even
    What are you on about?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

    Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.

    That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
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    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

    The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

    I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
    This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

    The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
    I agree completely.

    Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

    We will back to domestic politics very soon.

    We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
    Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
    You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

    I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

    (p.s. I loathe Putin)
    It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."

    Or similar. As you did in your post.

    (*) excepting myself
    I think the Russians have found it more successful to fund fringe Western political ideas and leaders that cause division and chaos.
    Oh, they can do both. In fact, it's well known they have been.

    And to be clear: PB may be a fringe website, but it'd be a good target for misinfo because of the readership and the (generally) reasonable quality of comments.
    I would have thought it a bad site for misinfo as clearly incorrect things are regularly challenged quickly on here, and it is not easy to share a pb quote with a mass audience anyway (apart from the journalists who enjoy lifting articles from here, changing a few words and claiming them as their own work).
    Conversely it is a good site to share info that is based in reality, but not yet widely understood or considered.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

    And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

    I haven't heard/seen that, Do you have a link?
    https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/1497008826201124870
    I'm not sure whether to laugh or not, but as a glorious act of defiance it puts Cambronne's famous (and apocryphal) 'merde' at Waterloo rather in the shade. Even if it ended rather more tragically for those sending it than it did for Cambronne.
    Q - "Should I tell him to go fuck himself?"
    A - "Just in case"

    Sounded like the answer was from a woman?
    Probably. Remember, they were border police. In any case, I believe Ukraine does allow women to serve in the army.
    "Just in case" - up there with "Then, we will fight in the shade"
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    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Sweden?
    He truly has lost it.
    Suggests if Scotland ever got independence if an indyref2 was allowed by the UK government and a Yes vote which Westminster implemented, then Putin would also threaten Scotland if it tried to join NATO.

    Salmond as head of a puppet regime even
    What are you on about?
    It is almost comical
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,454
    Hadn't realised that President Zelensky of Ukraine is Jewish. Apparently Jewish community about 43,000 now. 1.5m at the the beginning of WW2.

    Makes Vlad's charges of Ukraine being led by neo-Nazis even less plausible.

    From the Beeb:

    "Here's more from Vladimir Putin, who is addressing the Russian Security Council - and, indirectly, the Ukrainian military.

    "He says Banderites - a reference to World War Two anti-Soviet fighter Stepan Bandera - and so-called neo-Nazis 'have put up heavy armaments including multiple rocket launch systems' in cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv."

    "'Neo-Nazis' is regularly used by President Putin to deride the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's President Zelensky, who is Jewish, has dismissed the term."
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

    Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.
    No maybe about it.
    I wonder if there is a coup being plotted - he is 69 - and this is a desperate distraction he has created
    Bloody fool thing to do if so. What's the first rule when facing a coup? Don't Piss Off The Army.
    The type of error to be expected from a modern historian. The true rule is that if the Praetorian Guard is on side and paid up to date, the rest of the army can go screw itself.

    Wallace's "tonto" diagnosis is surprsingly bang on the money. I expect things to get very very messy in the Kremlin, but regime change is coming, and if the new regime wants to ingratiate itself with the army it will withdraw.
    That worked so well for Pertinax and Didius Julianus...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    edited February 2022

    nico679 said:

    Russia doesn’t want street battles as the body bags would pile up and that would result in higher Ukrainian civilian casualties.

    Given many Russians have family links with Ukraine this could cause problems for Putin.

    It's one thing using your air force to bomb cities in far-away Syria, quite another to do that to cities in next door Ukraine. So not really an option, surely.

    And the thought of hand-to-hand fighting...Jeez. (BBC just reported that 18,000 guns have been given to volunteers, alongside instructions to make Molotov cocktail).

    Could be extraordinarily ugly. Has Vlad really thought this through?
    "You take a standard G.I sock, cram it with as much Comp B as it can hold, rig up a simple fuse, then coat the whole thing with axle grease. Now when you throw it, it should stick. It's a bomb that sticks, it's a "sticky bomb". Think of a better way to knock out the tracks of a tank and I'm all ears."
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270

    ydoethur said:

    Romanian (so NATO) ship hit earlier was actually Moldovan (so neutral)
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-fire-neutral-european-26329832

    The Moldovans are saying they believe it was a Ukrainian registered ship but (ironically) with a Russian crew.
    So just to be clear - the Russians are so confused they're now firing at their own people?

    This is extraordinary.
    You never heard of "friendly fire"?

    Here's an example in the North Sea:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident
    Slapton Sands comes to mind.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...

    https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html
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    Hadn't realised that President Zelensky of Ukraine is Jewish. Apparently Jewish community about 43,000 now. 1.5m at the the beginning of WW2.

    Makes Vlad's charges of Ukraine being led by neo-Nazis even less plausible.

    From the Beeb:

    "Here's more from Vladimir Putin, who is addressing the Russian Security Council - and, indirectly, the Ukrainian military.

    "He says Banderites - a reference to World War Two anti-Soviet fighter Stepan Bandera - and so-called neo-Nazis 'have put up heavy armaments including multiple rocket launch systems' in cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv."

    "'Neo-Nazis' is regularly used by President Putin to deride the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's President Zelensky, who is Jewish, has dismissed the term."

    May also explain the Corbynites' reluctance to back Ukraine?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    edited February 2022
    The BBC quotes the MoD as saying "Russian armoured vehicles have opened up a new advance route towards the capital, having been unsuccessful in capturing Chernihiv".
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,732
    edited February 2022
    PJohnson said:

    the reason some right wingers support Putin by the way is they see him as potentially defending Christian values against a woke decadent west...they may be wrong but thats their reasoning

    Hard to think of many less Christian or decadent than Putin.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...

    https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html

    They won't be swift in action.

    I thank you.
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    MaxPB said:

    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

    Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.

    That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
    Sadly they are cremating their loses and not sending body bags home
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    PJohnson said:

    the reason some right wingers support Putin by the way is they see him as potentially defending Christian values against a woke decadent west...they may be wrong but thats their reasoning

    This invasion could have been planned by Jesus himself.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,504

    nico679 said:

    Russia doesn’t want street battles as the body bags would pile up and that would result in higher Ukrainian civilian casualties.

    Given many Russians have family links with Ukraine this could cause problems for Putin.

    It's one thing using your air force to bomb cities in far-away Syria, quite another to do that to cities in next door Ukraine. So not really an option, surely.

    And the thought of hand-to-hand fighting...Jeez. (BBC just reported that 18,000 guns have been given to volunteers, alongside instructions to make Molotov cocktail).

    Could be extraordinarily ugly. Has Vlad really thought this through?
    "You take a standard G.I sock, cram it with as much Composition B as it can hold, rig up a simple fuse, then coat the whole thing with axle grease. Now when you throw it, it should stick. It's a bomb that sticks, it's a "sticky bomb". Think of a better way to knock out the tracks and I'm all ears."
    The original version - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_bomb
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Chris said:

    The BBC quotes the MoD as saying "Russian armoured vehicles have opened up a new advance route towards the capital, having been unsuccessful in capturing Chernihiv".

    Ive got a feeling the Russian Army is not very good
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,477

    What I can't work out, unless the basic theory that Vlad has gone mad or his medication has sent him mad, is why he wants Ukraine as a locked in part of Russia?

    You are bringing millions of people who have had a taste of democracy into the 'family' of Russia fed, thousands of whom will no doubt join up with and covertly work with pro-democracy forces in Russia itself.

    He's helping seed the inevitable revolution that brings his lot down.

    Maybe he really does know he has run out of time?

    My theory is they are all very poor, and they would love to be wealthier and have nice things, and that’s something they share across that disputed border where twelve thousand people have been killed in last 7 years.

    So if those on the Uranian side join EU and get wealthier from it, it appears to a Greater Russian Nationalist sat in the Kremlin just like you said “seed the inevitable revolution that brings” what he prefers down.

    Does being in EU diminish Nationalism over time?
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    HYUFD said:

    "The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over," Boris rather naively told Tobias Ellwood last year.

    Russia has the biggest number of tanks in the world and has just launched the first land invasion of an independent sovereign state in Europe since WW2.
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1497139951552671744?s=20&t=M3ZRMfdjWd-gYHi9u8MyuQ

    Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States

    Shame all the Scottish Oil has run out. Or so you BritNats keep telling us.
    Jeezo.

    Why not give it a rest?

    Who's gonna vote to dismember the strongest European NATO member, strip it of its nuclear deterrent, ban nuclear power generation, and scrap oil and gas extraction, now?

    Well you, I guess?
    Is there a vote? Hurrah. Bless you Boris. I had you down as a wrong un. Just shows you how wrong you can be about people.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055
    MaxPB said:

    Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:

    Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.

    Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.


    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480

    Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.

    That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
    To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.

    Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.

    If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.

    I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
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    Chris said:

    The BBC quotes the MoD as saying "Russian armoured vehicles have opened up a new advance route towards the capital, having been unsuccessful in capturing Chernihiv".

    Ive got a feeling the Russian Army is not very good
    If this turns into Vlad’s Russo-Japanese war it will be the start of the end, just as that conflict was for Nicholas II….
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    BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me

    https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,055

    Chris said:

    The BBC quotes the MoD as saying "Russian armoured vehicles have opened up a new advance route towards the capital, having been unsuccessful in capturing Chernihiv".

    Ive got a feeling the Russian Army is not very good
    From what I've read passim, some parts of it are excellent, world-beating (literally). Other parts - perhaps the majority - is piss-poor.

    Their problem is trying to maintain a military almost on par with the US's with one-tenth the budget.
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    The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...

    https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html

    He had to be rescued by the Ukrainian army who are banned from using his country's weapons in this war.
This discussion has been closed.