The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
I agree completely.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!
Putin's not a leftie either!
He’s not. But so many left wing and right wing minds are hot wired and living in the past, such as the 12 Labour politicians and their letter so predictably supported Putin, they can’t tell the difference from communists or Putin in the Kremlin.
In his last election he campaigned on Conservative values, his support for Russian church etc. sort of things the Marxists had no time for and worse by their actions.
Putin's United Russia's main opponent is the Communist Party, Russian elections are a bit like alien v predator!
Russians don't really do liberalism except for a handful of highly educated and very rich people living in the big cities
Putin has no 'main opponent'. He has performative opponents that he can beat very comfortably in staged contests. Real opponents - the likes of Navalny - are jailed or killed.
At one time (the 2000 election), the Communists really were a force that might win. Indeed, that was one of the main reasons Yeltsin resigned and Putin took over. However, those days are long gone.
This is why talk of oligarchs is anachronistic. In 2000, there were meaningful points of dispersed power. The oligarchs were one such (or several such, depending on your take), as were the media networks they and others controlled. As were semi-autonomous parts of the state, including the prosecutors office, as was Yeltsin and his family for that matter.
No longer. All meaningful power and control of all significant money resides in the Kremlin or via people franchised by it. And by 'the Kremlin', that means Putin, personally and individually. He wields more power in Russia than any individual since Stalin; he is a republican tsar.
But like tsars, and like Stalin, he is still vulnerable to a coup, a revolution or an assassin's bomb or bullet.
That was such a depressing post, I’m glad it finished on an optimistic note 🙂
I’m replying mainly so this is replicated and read by a new audience just switching on, because to me you have summed up this history very well.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
He doesn't need nuclear weapons. What worries me is if he meets heavy resistance and street fighting in Kyiv, he simply decides to carpet bomb the place, Dresden style.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
That would be the end of him. There are deep cultural and family ties. Part of his argument, popular with Russian Nationalists, is that Ukrainians are really Russian anyways. Not sure carpet bombing them would be the way to go.
About as smart as the British shelling Dublin. Look how that turned out.
Tough old day. I got arrested by the Ukrainian army for filming them: "Are you a Russian spy?" No etc. They were nicer than Putin. I got a cup of tea. Spent time at Ukraine Int HQ as they checked me out. Never mind. #Putin's war is not going well.
Interesting - he argues in the video that Putin is staying his hand in Kyiv because the optics of levelling the city would play very badly at home.
Well, it would. Kyiv may be in Ukraine, but it's still one of the great cultural and historic centres of Russia. Levelling it *would * look bad. Moreover, it's hard to justify invading to save a country if you end by destroying it.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature. .
Immediately, perhaps not, but in the longer term it is. Otherwise anyone attacked would be advised on humanitarian grounds to simply surrender.
What do you think? Do you think it's a malicious act by a cold and soulless nation?
I think it's a principled act by a cold and soulless administration with really shitty principles.
Your turn. What do you think of it?
As I put it on the PT really - I disagree with Germany's reticence in this matter but I don't feel right condemning them for it, or ascribing negative national characteristics to it. I think it largely comes from something that I find understandable and not malign.
Ukrainians are throwing glass bottles full of petrol at Russian tanks, but you understand why the Germans are too nobly principled to help the poor fuckers out?
I don't understand.
I don't applaud their current stance on this conflict but, yes, I think I do understand at least some of why Germany has wanted to build a profitable relationship with Russia and why they are predisposed to keep out of military conflict outside of their borders. What I understand less is somebody *not* having any appreciation of this.
But if you want to go full monty condemnation from here in the UK about a shameful, commerce-grubbing nation selling out Ukraine to appease and enable tyranny, if that's the analysis you like, the one that rings true to you, you go right ahead. It seems to be a popular take, both here and elsewhere. I'm just not keen on it and I prefer mine.
Fixed it for you.
And the commerce grubbing extends to other places as well.
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States
Shame all the Scottish Oil has run out. Or so you BritNats keep telling us.
You don't want to go too far down that road though do you. I thought you were against fracking?
(My view is that it's best to get to renewables as fast as possible, but I'd not object to fracking in the UK if it helped get Germany off the Russian hook)
NATO stmt following meeting today: “We have activated NATO’s defence plans to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies and secure Alliance territory…We are now making significant additional defensive deployments of forces to the eastern part of the Alliance.” https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1497261349008773125
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
Tough old day. I got arrested by the Ukrainian army for filming them: "Are you a Russian spy?" No etc. They were nicer than Putin. I got a cup of tea. Spent time at Ukraine Int HQ as they checked me out. Never mind. #Putin's war is not going well.
Interesting - he argues in the video that Putin is staying his hand in Kyiv because the optics of levelling the city would play very badly at home.
It's hard to argue that you're invading because Russians are Ukrainians are 'one people', and then kill thousands of what you've called your 'own people'.
Worse, it might show Russians that you can fight your 'own people'.
It's easier to fight a war against a people you call Untermensch.
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…
Germans = bad London = good
I think it needs to be coordinated with the US and probably needs quite a lot of legal checking.
The City has been briefed that we're going to get caught up in this, probably quite significantly. It's just awaiting the package from the government now and agreeing a common stance with the US.
The City used as a weapon against Russia having profited so much from Russia - this has an irony which appeals. Watching that space with great interest.
BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet. They truly value their democracy.
Not even merely democracy. If there were any illusions about the contempt their 'brother' Putin in Russia feels for their very existence, they are gone now.
Not sure why yesterday Boris said "fellow slavs". Has he not heard of Russo-Polish relations, or Serbs v. Croats?
Since as DixieDean notes part of Putin's justification is that the two are really one people. Which makes no sense since he wants to both save the 'proper' Russians there but also that the Ukrainians are really Russian too, who need to be attacked.
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
And if we look from what is happening, the disordered approach, to why, the why is each part of what could be a unified approach have allowed themselves to be exposed in different ways. Energy pipeline for example, Greek and Austrian banks.
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks banks worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
if you can operate on kids, you can operate on adults?
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
So why didn't he make his move then? The same reason he took Crimea when he did the opportunity presented itself thanks to another weak man leader in the WH.
Well Putin had his own man in the WH between January 2017 and January 2021.
Lord Wakefield? Was the Lord HawHaw avatar already taken?
It would be entirely plausible that Putin was waiting to see if Trump was going to cripple NATO from the inside & do his work for him. Once Trump lost the election & the follow-up coup attempt it was on to the next plan, which turns out to be “invade Ukraine”.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
if you can operate on kids, you can operate on adults?
If your plan looks like this, maybe you expect lots of injured children?
The whole idea of taking Kiev, and some other cities further north, especially from the beginning, isn't the work of a fully functioning strategic mind, I think, and as mentioned yesterday. He could have so much more easily worked to hold and expand the eastern areas, and then formed a land corridor all the way along the coast , working to cover all the most important strategic areas along the way.
It's the sort of decision you would make in his position if surrounded by yes men, isolated, and not in the best mental condition, it very much looks to me.
The generalised money grubbing attitude of Conservative politicians ** towards various oligarchs (not just Russian ones) has an echo in PB's own HYUFD's obsession with inheritance.
Its almost a reversal of the 'money earned through honest toil' mentality.
That money acquired through genuine work and business is somehow less worthy than money acquired without it.
** I know there are plenty of others involved among UK politicians and the establishment generally.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
If they’re now expecting a more protracted war in Ukraine then they’ll have to provide medical support to the people in the occupied territories.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
And if we look from what is happening, the disordered approach, to why, the why is each part of what could be a unified approach have allowed themselves to be exposed in different ways. Energy pipeline for example, Greek and Austrian banks.
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks they worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
How long would it take for the EU to decide where they were going to have the meeting at which they might, sometime in the foreseeable future, vote upon a unified, watered-down approach to Russia's aggression to a defeated Ukraine?
A month? Three months?
Sadly, this sort of crisis (and Covid) shows where the EU's centralised approach fails. It can be good in some situations. In others, it is disastrous.
Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States
No we don't, and no we don't.
Needing to make tanks and sell them to Poland and the Baltic States though, is a different matter.
Every European NATO nation needs more tanks, including us, Poland and the Baltics. It is not a matter of one nation producing them for the other, they all need to produce more of them and send them to NATO nations in Eastern Europe supported by fighter jets
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
More likely it's just dawned on them a lot of Ukrainian civilians will be hit if they keep invading and the resistance holds up, which would look bad on their propaganda images.
Or maybe it's even a treble bluff. 'Look, it's not our fault , it's yours for fighting, so we'll try and help the children you've wounded by fighting in the war we started.'
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
"For you, the day Bison graced your village was the most important day of your life. But for me, it was Tuesday."
I would give Putin some credit if he could deliver a line like that.
My body clock is now set to the Malmesbury Monoliths, I see them and pour my first gin.
Surely traditionalists wouldn’t never want them to stop? If covid stops, just repeat favourite batches of monoliths like the BBC does with comedy.
Even if we have all been killed in a nuclear holocaust he will still be posting them I expect from a bunker, even though post vaccination and the end of restrictions they are almost as irrelevant now
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
Carry on until I have turned PB into an endless pile of monoliths......
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
No, but if Kyiv falls and he manages to escape then we can offer him and his government somewhere to hide out for a while.
I imagine that Roman Abramovich's London mansion would make quite an acceptable presidential palace until enough Russians have been butchered in the field to persuade them to give up fighting.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
And if we look from what is happening, the disordered approach, to why, the why is each part of what could be a unified approach have allowed themselves to be exposed in different ways. Energy pipeline for example, Greek and Austrian banks.
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks they worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
How long would it take for the EU to decide where they were going to have the meeting at which they might, sometime in the foreseeable future, vote upon a unified, watered-down approach to Russia's aggression to a defeated Ukraine?
A month? Three months?
Sadly, this sort of crisis (and Covid) shows where the EU's centralised approach fails. It can be good in some situations. In others, it is disastrous.
They are meeting literally every day and new sanctions have been announced on each day of the war so far, with more likely tomorrow. Furthermore each country is free to go further and take radical further action, as Germany did.
Has Nordstream2 been 'cancelled'? If not, how long would it take to reverse the decision?
I wonder if Putin is betting on any sanctions being very short-lived once he wins and the world has to deal with the new reality.
Sending (say) anti-tank and other weapons are pretty irreversible.
The purpose of sanctions would be to punish Russian elites and hurt investment in the medium term in the hope that someone sane replaces Putin. Not to win a war against a madman who has already set his own young men on a road to death. Everything announced so far is sustainable for 10+ years, which is good.
From Putin's point of view, what hurts him are sanctions that cannot easily be reversed. If NS2's cancellation can be reversed in a day, then he wouldn't be too worried about it. All he needs to do is bribe the correct German politician.
Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…
Germans = bad London = good
I think it needs to be coordinated with the US and probably needs quite a lot of legal checking.
The City has been briefed that we're going to get caught up in this, probably quite significantly. It's just awaiting the package from the government now and agreeing a common stance with the US.
The City used as a weapon against Russia having profited so much from Russia - this has an irony which appeals. Watching that space with great interest.
I really don't want to have a go at London generally about this (really I don't) but it does appear that the people making money from various oligarchs do seem to be very central London based.
Though on the other hand there must be plenty of rich Londoners who would be happy to see the back of the oligarchs if only to reduced the price of Mayfair mansions.
The whole oligarch issue really must be something which is more ultra localised than almost anything else relating to the UK economy and society.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
If they’re now expecting a more protracted war in Ukraine then they’ll have to provide medical support to the people in the occupied territories.
Alternatively, a paediatric surgeon is also a general surgeon.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
If they’re now expecting a more protracted war in Ukraine then they’ll have to provide medical support to the people in the occupied territories.
Alternatively, a paediatric surgeon is also a general surgeon.
From when our little 'un is born, a paediatric nurse is well used to lots of blood and stitching...
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
Maybe Ukraine did have some of those missing suitcase bomb nukes after all.....
Some people are utterly deluded yet 35,000+ follow him...
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
The whole idea of taking Kiev, and some other cities further north, especially from the beginning, isn't the work of a fully functioning strategic mind, I think, and as mentioned yesterday. He could have so much more easily worked to hold and expand the eastern areas, and then formed a land corridor all the way along the coast , working to cover all the most important strategic areas along the way.
It's the sort of decision you would make in his position if surrounded by yes men, isolated, and not in the best mental condition, it very much looks to me.
Except that limited war aims don't allow you to rebuild the Russian Empire.
Connecting up your silly little satrapies in the south makes perfect sense if that's all you're interested in, but it also leaves the Ukrainian government in control of most of its territory, feeling frightened and enraged in equal measure, and busily constructing a huge army backed by Western money and equipped and trained to Western standards.
Putin has grabbed Ukraine now because he thinks he's entitled to grab it, because he feels a sense of historical destiny, and because he thinks he can get away with it. If he has been convinced by bad advisors, or by his own delusions, that this invasion is going to be a walk in the park for the mighty Russian army then I think he's going to be disabused of that notion, with potentially fatal personal consequences.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba According to intelligence, Russia is planning a large-scale provocation in order to "dehumanize" Ukrainians, accusing Ukraine of alleged inhuman actions. Don't be fooled by fakes. Ukraine defends its land in a just defensive war. Unlike Russia, we do not target kindergartens and civilians. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497266285566173184
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Some people are utterly deluded yet 35,000+ follow him...
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
35,000 accounts That's not the same as 35,000 people
I think it’s generally conceded that Putin’s “decapitation feint” has been unsuccessful, and hence he will need to revert to more traditional methods with a higher body count.
How long can he persist for? How long will the Ukrainians hold out? How long will the Russians put up with body bags?
Worryingly, I can’t see a feasible back-down track for Putin. He absolutely has to go “all-in” because the alternative is, what? being deposed?
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Or preparing for Ukrainian counter-attack
The idea that the Ukrainians could counter attack to any significant extent is even madder than the idea that Sergei Lavrov is fit to be a diplomat.
The Russians still have a force somewhat greater than the entire Ukrainian army poised to invade that they haven't even committed yet.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
I think it’s generally conceded that Putin’s “decapitation feint” has been unsuccessful, and hence he will need to revert to more traditional methods with a higher body count.
How long can he persist for? How long will the Ukrainians hold out? How long will the Russians put up with body bags?
Worryingly, I can’t see a feasible back-down track for Putin. He absolutely has to go “all-in” because the alternative is, what? being deposed?
To state the obvious the longer it takes for him to make progress the more chance there is of a palace coup in Moscow.
Some people are utterly deluded yet 35,000+ follow him...
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
35,000 accounts That's not the same as 35,000 people
to be fair a lot of twitter accounts are bot accounts...however look at the number of followers paul joseph watson has...
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba According to intelligence, Russia is planning a large-scale provocation in order to "dehumanize" Ukrainians, accusing Ukraine of alleged inhuman actions. Don't be fooled by fakes. Ukraine defends its land in a just defensive war. Unlike Russia, we do not target kindergartens and civilians. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497266285566173184
That could have been what happened with his Chechen friends bombing the blocks of flats more than 20 years ago, and it could happen again. Potentially very worrying if true.
@DmytroKuleba Call with my Italian counterpart @luigidimaio. Full solidarity with Ukraine. My colleague assured me that Italy will support banning Russia fromSWIFT.
"Instead of 'Vladimir Putin, why don't we call him 'Bladder-seer PooPoo" ?
I approve of this change....
That makes me think that Shitcan might be a good name for him.
That's Vlad, not your son!
I changed the little 'un's nappies enough times; he was indeed a can of seemingly never-ending 'shit'. Fortunately he's got all of it out of his system now, and he's a wonderful child.
No-one evidently changed Putin's nappies, and he's still full of sh*t.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Or preparing for Ukrainian counter-attack
The idea that the Ukrainians could counter attack to any significant extent is even madder than the idea that Sergei Lavrov is fit to be a diplomat.
The Russians still have a force somewhat greater than the entire Ukrainian army poised to invade that they haven't even committed yet.
So if not a counter attack, how would you describe the Battle of Grozny?
"The New Year's Eve battle was devastating for the Russians; the first Russian armored column lost 105 of their 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers.[21] The entire first battalion of the Maikop Brigade, more than half of the 81st Regiment plus hundreds of men from the remaining units, were dead. A high-ranking Russian General Staff officer said "On January 2nd, we lost contact with our forward units." According to Maskhadov, some 400 Russian tanks and APCs were destroyed.[22] Russian General A. Galkin reported 225 armored vehicles lost during the first month and a half of the invasion, including 62 tanks.[23]"
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
Vlad's chosen an odd time to invade: winds are strong across Europe and gas storage is near highs, just as domestic heating requirements are starting to drop.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
You’re delusional.
Sadly, lots of Trump fanboys are a sandwich short of a picnic. Bet Lord W is a bonafide QAnon believer as well
Need one in London but instead of the embassy needs to be through the streets of Knightsbridge and Sloane St and snarl it up all day tomorrow and ruin their shopping - that will hurt them more than SWIFT ban.
Also US/UK/EU should be peppering the airwaves saying that the Russians plan a terrible false flag op in Russia to discredit the Ukrainians - hopefully it will either hold one off or at least if it happens then a chance of Russians not believing it was the Ukrainians.
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
There’s a lot of posts on here urging and willing the Ukrainians to fight on, and trying to paint it as a fight they are doing well in, which I think disguises this is, in truth and fact leading to something just as horrible and difficult to except as the end of the Prague Spring with that invasion.
Someone posted here other day, after Russia went into Czechoslovakia, over next ten years they pilfered it.
At the crunch the Western world did not stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine this time. The dream of poor Ukrainians being in EU and getting wealthier and having nice things like western everyday people is over now, for time being, more days of terror and war in their country (not ours) won’t change that at all. In fact brilliant people like Zelenskiy and Klitchko and others we don’t even know their name might die.
I don’t feel as gung ho as PB today. It suddenly seems pointless to me. Is this anti Russian bloodlust just trying to hide the guilt? Carry on calling me a traitor and surrender monkey if you want, I would rather wake up tomorrow to a ceasefire and Zelenskiy in Minsk talking with Putin, than wake up to find it still going on.
@AliBunkallSKY UKRAINE: fear amongst western officials now is that Russia will start bombing Ukrainians indiscriminately and even with thermobaric weapons, if their progress continues to be impeded.
Need one in London but instead of the embassy needs to be through the streets of Knightsbridge and Sloane St and snarl it up all day tomorrow and ruin their shopping - that will hurt them more than SWIFT ban.
Also US/UK/EU should be peppering the airwaves saying that the Russians plan a terrible false flag op in Russia to discredit the Ukrainians - hopefully it will either hold one off or at least if it happens then a chance of Russians not believing it was the Ukrainians.
Cutting up their credit cards in Harrods and Selfridges would be embarrassing.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Or preparing for Ukrainian counter-attack
The idea that the Ukrainians could counter attack to any significant extent is even madder than the idea that Sergei Lavrov is fit to be a diplomat.
The Russians still have a force somewhat greater than the entire Ukrainian army poised to invade that they haven't even committed yet.
So if not a counter attack, how would you describe the Battle of Grozny?
"The New Year's Eve battle was devastating for the Russians; the first Russian armored column lost 105 of their 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers.[21] The entire first battalion of the Maikop Brigade, more than half of the 81st Regiment plus hundreds of men from the remaining units, were dead. A high-ranking Russian General Staff officer said "On January 2nd, we lost contact with our forward units." According to Maskhadov, some 400 Russian tanks and APCs were destroyed.[22] Russian General A. Galkin reported 225 armored vehicles lost during the first month and a half of the invasion, including 62 tanks.[23]"
A tactical counter attack, not a strategic one, possibly?
Certainly Ukraine won't be pushing into the Crimea or something. But it *might* be able to push back some Russian units, in some places.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Given that its the end of winter how much would Germany use NS2 even if it was approved ?
Vlad's chosen an odd time to invade: winds are strong across Europe and gas storage is near highs, just as domestic heating requirements are starting to drop.
Has Nordstream2 been 'cancelled'? If not, how long would it take to reverse the decision?
I wonder if Putin is betting on any sanctions being very short-lived once he wins and the world has to deal with the new reality.
Sending (say) anti-tank and other weapons are pretty irreversible.
The purpose of sanctions would be to punish Russian elites and hurt investment in the medium term in the hope that someone sane replaces Putin. Not to win a war against a madman who has already set his own young men on a road to death. Everything announced so far is sustainable for 10+ years, which is good.
From Putin's point of view, what hurts him are sanctions that cannot easily be reversed. If NS2's cancellation can be reversed in a day, then he wouldn't be too worried about it. All he needs to do is bribe the correct German politician.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
You’re delusional.
Sadly, lots of Trump fanboys are a sandwich short of a picnic. Bet Lord W is a bonafide QAnon believer as well
Most of the Trump fanboys are a picnic short of a picnic.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
The document includes list including "paediatric surgeons".
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
My fear would be that they're planning a false flag terrorist attack to try to get the Russian people behind the war.
Or preparing for Ukrainian counter-attack
The idea that the Ukrainians could counter attack to any significant extent is even madder than the idea that Sergei Lavrov is fit to be a diplomat.
The Russians still have a force somewhat greater than the entire Ukrainian army poised to invade that they haven't even committed yet.
So if not a counter attack, how would you describe the Battle of Grozny?
"The New Year's Eve battle was devastating for the Russians; the first Russian armored column lost 105 of their 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers.[21] The entire first battalion of the Maikop Brigade, more than half of the 81st Regiment plus hundreds of men from the remaining units, were dead. A high-ranking Russian General Staff officer said "On January 2nd, we lost contact with our forward units." According to Maskhadov, some 400 Russian tanks and APCs were destroyed.[22] Russian General A. Galkin reported 225 armored vehicles lost during the first month and a half of the invasion, including 62 tanks.[23]"
A Chechen defeat, with a handful of ripostes that did not allow them to counter attack to any significant extent.
Comments
I’m replying mainly so this is replicated and read by a new audience just switching on, because to me you have summed up this history very well.
Needing to make tanks and sell them to Poland and the Baltic States though, is a different matter.
And the commerce grubbing extends to other places as well.
Not least dear old Londontown.
My manifesto is expressed here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjogCytzX0s
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1497261349008773125
Worse, it might show Russians that you can fight your 'own people'.
It's easier to fight a war against a people you call Untermensch.
I would give Putin some credit if he could deliver a line like that.
So I'm not sure this is for doctors to go and help wounded RU soldiers?
Having said that though, I disagree with myself, even where US are exposed, it hasn’t stopped them being braver than UK and EU in past sanctions, and I suspect here too.
When we say banks are exposed, Greece, Austria, does that mean Russians have debts in the banks banks worry about writing off? Could they be helped with that, rather them be a blocker to the unified approach?
Dublin, Ireland. Angry crowd harasses a car carrying the Russian ambassador as it tries to enter the Embassy.
Ireland, I am proud of you.❤️🇮🇪
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497259463597826050
It's the sort of decision you would make in his position if surrounded by yes men, isolated, and not in the best mental condition, it very much looks to me.
The generalised money grubbing attitude of Conservative politicians ** towards various oligarchs (not just Russian ones) has an echo in PB's own HYUFD's obsession with inheritance.
Its almost a reversal of the 'money earned through honest toil' mentality.
That money acquired through genuine work and business is somehow less worthy than money acquired without it.
** I know there are plenty of others involved among UK politicians and the establishment generally.
A month? Three months?
Sadly, this sort of crisis (and Covid) shows where the EU's centralised approach fails. It can be good in some situations. In others, it is disastrous.
With over 12k new infections yesterday compared with under 2k a week before.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/
Or maybe it's even a treble bluff. 'Look, it's not our fault , it's yours for fighting, so we'll try and help the children you've wounded by fighting in the war we started.'
Surely traditionalists wouldn’t never want them to stop? If covid stops, just repeat favourite batches of monoliths like the BBC does with comedy.
See Singapore’s experience for an analogy.
The government is rapidly liberalising the various COVID restrictions.
I imagine that Roman Abramovich's London mansion would make quite an acceptable presidential palace until enough Russians have been butchered in the field to persuade them to give up fighting.
https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1497031347042459648?s=20&t=aQZwT7pvXsbvIXuYZEIJjQ
“We’re defending our independence and our country, and that’s how it’ll be.”
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497258504784072708?s=21
Though on the other hand there must be plenty of rich Londoners who would be happy to see the back of the oligarchs if only to reduced the price of Mayfair mansions.
The whole oligarch issue really must be something which is more ultra localised than almost anything else relating to the UK economy and society.
If it's pinging correctly, they are at least improving. Not one mention of BA pilots or Holocaust survivors yet.
While everything Mr Meeks said this morning is obvious, it's worth repeating how much damage social media does to those who use it as their sole source of news.
Connecting up your silly little satrapies in the south makes perfect sense if that's all you're interested in, but it also leaves the Ukrainian government in control of most of its territory, feeling frightened and enraged in equal measure, and busily constructing a huge army backed by Western money and equipped and trained to Western standards.
Putin has grabbed Ukraine now because he thinks he's entitled to grab it, because he feels a sense of historical destiny, and because he thinks he can get away with it. If he has been convinced by bad advisors, or by his own delusions, that this invasion is going to be a walk in the park for the mighty Russian army then I think he's going to be disabused of that notion, with potentially fatal personal consequences.
@DmytroKuleba
According to intelligence, Russia is planning a large-scale provocation in order to "dehumanize" Ukrainians, accusing Ukraine of alleged inhuman actions. Don't be fooled by fakes. Ukraine defends its land in a just defensive war. Unlike Russia, we do not target kindergartens and civilians.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497266285566173184
"Instead of 'Vladimir Putin, why don't we call him 'Bladder-seer PooPoo" ?
I approve of this change....
That's not the same as 35,000 people
How long can he persist for?
How long will the Ukrainians hold out?
How long will the Russians put up with body bags?
Worryingly, I can’t see a feasible back-down track for Putin. He absolutely has to go “all-in” because the alternative is, what? being deposed?
Your stock market analysis is truly revelatory, Sergei.
The Russians still have a force somewhat greater than the entire Ukrainian army poised to invade that they haven't even committed yet.
That's Vlad, not your son!
1. Jews
2. The Deep State
3. "I'm just asking questions", or
4. Jews
Just skip to the bit where you say what you mean, then we can all go get dinner or whatever.
Call with my Italian counterpart @luigidimaio. Full solidarity with Ukraine. My colleague assured me that Italy will support banning Russia fromSWIFT.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
No-one evidently changed Putin's nappies, and he's still full of sh*t.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994–1995)
"The New Year's Eve battle was devastating for the Russians; the first Russian armored column lost 105 of their 120 tanks and armored personnel carriers.[21] The entire first battalion of the Maikop Brigade, more than half of the 81st Regiment plus hundreds of men from the remaining units, were dead. A high-ranking Russian General Staff officer said "On January 2nd, we lost contact with our forward units." According to Maskhadov, some 400 Russian tanks and APCs were destroyed.[22] Russian General A. Galkin reported 225 armored vehicles lost during the first month and a half of the invasion, including 62 tanks.[23]"
This is a great chart showing current German electricity production by type: https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&stacking=stacked_absolute_area
The Germans are only using 3GW of natural gas right now.
Back in the middle of winter, it might have 20GW.
The Russians chose a very odd time to invade.
Also US/UK/EU should be peppering the airwaves saying that the Russians plan a terrible false flag op in Russia to discredit the Ukrainians - hopefully it will either hold one off or at least if it happens then a chance of Russians not believing it was the Ukrainians.
Someone posted here other day, after Russia went into Czechoslovakia, over next ten years they pilfered it.
At the crunch the Western world did not stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine this time. The dream of poor Ukrainians being in EU and getting wealthier and having nice things like western everyday people is over now, for time being, more days of terror and war in their country (not ours) won’t change that at all. In fact brilliant people like Zelenskiy and Klitchko and others we don’t even know their name might die.
I don’t feel as gung ho as PB today. It suddenly seems pointless to me. Is this anti Russian bloodlust just trying to hide the guilt? Carry on calling me a traitor and surrender monkey if you want, I would rather wake up tomorrow to a ceasefire and Zelenskiy in Minsk talking with Putin, than wake up to find it still going on.
UKRAINE: fear amongst western officials now is that Russia will start bombing Ukrainians indiscriminately and even with thermobaric weapons, if their progress continues to be impeded.
https://twitter.com/AliBunkallSKY/status/1497265699324055552
Certainly Ukraine won't be pushing into the Crimea or something. But it *might* be able to push back some Russian units, in some places.