Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined that at much the same age as I was when he came along, he would be looking at the obliteration of a nation state by an aggressive power in Europe.
Awful. Truly awful.
I have such happy memories of Kiev.
It does feel, in the past few years, as if we are returning to a world of authoritarian aggression and democratic weakness more familiar to my parents and grand-parents when young.
I really fear that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will not stop there. And then what? Worrying times.
Indeed. We seem to be back to the 19th century. Sad. Depressing. Awful times.
Shortly to be compounded by Trump's return the way things are looking.
The Estonian Parliament just unanimously passed a resolution condemning the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It entails important language. I encourage everyone to read it and think about the gravity of what is said.
'calls on the member states to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate country of the European Union and a roadmap for achieving NATO membership'
Seems like a long shot. Not ruling it out in the face of an unreasonable demand to do so is one thing, actively putting them on the path to either, even if that would take a long time?
Good that they note this has been going on since 2014 though.
I think there's a catalogue of western failures that made Putin, a man whose background inclined to autocracy, revert away from his very pro-Western stance after 9-11, back to the familiar. Those are legal ; Iraq, economic ; the long after-effects of the early 1990s ; and strategic ; going back on original verbal assurances of not expanding NATO to Ukraine.
We are where we are, and he's gradually become more unhinged and pathologically anti-Western over time now, on his own track. We should be looking at the absolute maximum economic sanctions, and heavily reinforcing a whole line from the Baltics to Greece.
That is just nonsense. We might have perceived Russia as becoming more friendly after the collapse of the USSR, but Putin was never pro-Western. That was projection on the part of the West.
Indeed, Putin is the most dangerous Russian leader of my lifetime, far worse than Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Indeed I would now go so far as to say he is the most dangerous Russian leader since Stalin
I hate it when I agree with you
I'd compare him with Brezhnev. Czechoslovakia. China. Afghanistan. Not really stopped until he declined to intervene in Poland.
Of course, I could be wrong and Putin decide to invade half the known world.
A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would create one of the largest refugee crises in the world, with as many as five million people displaced, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Wednesday.
NY Times blog
The consensus on here very recently was "nothing to do with us". I wonder how many will feel the same next week.
If all those five million are indeed displaced and decide to flee the country, then the rest of Europe is going to have an enormous challenge finding them all food, shelter, care, and probably permanent resettlement.
The UK constitutes about 7% of the population of the NATO alliance. 7% of 5,000,000 is about 350,000 people. That's an awful lot of camp beds and leisure centre sports halls. And our wretched Government hasn't even been able to look after a few thousand Afghans properly.
Probably best we don't take any refugees in at all. The shock of seeing white people treated like they're barely human will be too much for some people.
If it comes to it we are going to have to. Setting aside any moral considerations, which do not matter to this Government, Johnson is not going to be able to wibble his way pathetically out of burden sharing through this disaster. Asking Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania to accommodate all of these people in tent cities just across the border is not a sustainable position.
I agree that we should do, but given the consistently shameful record of British governments on the issue of providing asylum to refugees over the past few decades I have no hope that this crisis would prompt any change.
Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined that at much the same age as I was when he came along, he would be looking at the obliteration of a nation state by an aggressive power in Europe.
Awful. Truly awful.
I have such happy memories of Kiev.
It does feel, in the past few years, as if we are returning to a world of authoritarian aggression and democratic weakness more familiar to my parents and grand-parents when young.
I really fear that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will not stop there. And then what? Worrying times.
Indeed. We seem to be back to the 19th century. Sad. Depressing. Awful times.
Shortly to be compounded by Trump's return the way things are looking.
Yes, territorial acquisition wars seemed to have lost their appeal, in Europe at the very least. When Putin goes old school he goes really old school.
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
If you're going to engage in this sort of petty point-scoring it's always more fun if you have specific quotes with links to the comments.
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
If you're going to engage in this sort of petty point-scoring it's always more fun if you have specific quotes with links to the comments.
Ok, fair enough.
But that would require me to trawl through old threads. Suffice it to say they were all of the PB Tory / Brexit persuasion.
Bugger. Broken my left foot and right leg. Now having my knee x-rayed. It's only my ankle that hurts.
I have done some pretty dangerous sports when young without any injuries. I just went over on my ankle while walking. Pathetic.
Aagh! Really sorry to hear that kjh! You are not having much luck at the moment.
I can only wish you a swift recovery.
Thank you. None of this (trees and leg) are important in the grand scheme of things. Weird thing is I have no pain in the break below my knee
I mean though 3 breaks while bloody walking.
@kjh Bad luck. I did something similar a decade or so ago. If it is plastered up, be careful not to let water in when showering. I did, and ended up in hospital for another week whilst they dealt with the subsequent infection.
Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined that at much the same age as I was when he came along, he would be looking at the obliteration of a nation state by an aggressive power in Europe.
Awful. Truly awful.
I have such happy memories of Kiev.
It does feel, in the past few years, as if we are returning to a world of authoritarian aggression and democratic weakness more familiar to my parents and grand-parents when young.
I really fear that if Putin is successful in Ukraine he will not stop there. And then what? Worrying times.
If the Finns have any sense they'll ask to be fast-tracked into NATO. .
Russia invades Ukraine Finland joins NATO Russia/Stop the War - look, see how NATO is aggressively expanding to push a cold war mentality, this is why we have to defend ourselves Everyone else - you're not great at putting 2 and 2 together, are you?
You would not want to start with where we are, but let’s assume Russia invades the “rest of the Donbas”.
We (the West) will need to arm rump Ukraine to the teeth and expend every effort to bring into the European economic system.
If Putin goes further, and takes Kiev etc, we’re back to Cold War level confrontation.
I think that Putin wants to topple the Ukrainian government, seize more Ukrainian territory, and set up a rump state presided over by an autocratic puppet. Something like Belarus, that he can gradually incorporate into Russia itself.
If the Ukrainians get away with losing Crimea and the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but nothing more, then that would be a real surprise at this stage. Judging from Putin's recent rant, it seems obvious that he regards most or all of Ukraine as stolen Russian territory. And he wants it back.
Virtuosic Zelensky speech, addressed to Russians in Russian. "You've been told I'm going to bomb Donbass. Bomb what? The Donetsk stadium where the locals and I cheered for our team at Euro 2012? The bar where we drank when they lost? Luhansk, where my best friend's mom lives?"
Yes, it is probably useless as a tactic. But years from now, people will be able to watch this speech, contrast it with Putin's hourlong episode of Drunk History, and make their conclusions
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
Let's face it, that's what we are. You being told on here something about China means nothing compared to what Obama and Romney were discussing.
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
If you're going to engage in this sort of petty point-scoring it's always more fun if you have specific quotes with links to the comments.
Ok, fair enough.
But that would require me to trawl through old threads. Suffice it to say they were all of the PB Tory / Brexit persuasion.
Definitely. It was a particularly prevalent mode of tory thought at the height of the AUKUS priapism.
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
If you're going to engage in this sort of petty point-scoring it's always more fun if you have specific quotes with links to the comments.
Ok, fair enough.
But that would require me to trawl through old threads. Suffice it to say they were all of the PB Tory / Brexit persuasion.
The only positive I can see is that Germany and France seem to have woken up to the reality of the Russian regime. That is some progress, at least.
Macron, 25 minutes ago from his iphone: [Translated] To the Ukrainian people, to President Zelensky, this evening, I reiterate our support, our attachment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In economic and financial matters, in terms of defensive equipment, France will continue to provide its support.
This has to go down as another massive failure for Western intelligence. The problem is they spent most of the time after 9/11 spying on the computers and devices of their own citizens. According to Adam Curtis, they found absolutely nothing of any use by doing so. (The only thing they did discover was that people were using them to engage in long-distance "relationships", according to Curtis).
Remember Obama's put down of Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
I remember being told on here that China was by far the only substantial threat to the UK, and hence no need to worry about about our European relationships.
Somewhat different, don't you think?
In what way.
One of them was from a candidate to be the president of the US, the other was from a random nobody on an obscure blog.
Random nobodies. Many of whom are still posting on here.
If you're going to engage in this sort of petty point-scoring it's always more fun if you have specific quotes with links to the comments.
Ok, fair enough.
But that would require me to trawl through old threads. Suffice it to say they were all of the PB Tory / Brexit persuasion.
Yes, because it was all in response to AUKUS. People got a bit overexcited in their partisanship and decided to pretend that strategy in 2021 was entirely about China China China, even when Russia was literally occupying parts of another country.
We're only at the beginning phase of the existing world order being seriously challenged, so it's a bit premature to say they were wrong.
The sad truth is that China is the greater danger to the west. Unlike Russia it is a successful undemocratic and authoritarian society, and one with expansionist aims.
The only positive I can see is that Germany and France seem to have woken up to the reality of the Russian regime. That is some progress, at least.
Macron, 25 minutes ago from his iphone: [Translated] To the Ukrainian people, to President Zelensky, this evening, I reiterate our support, our attachment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In economic and financial matters, in terms of defensive equipment, France will continue to provide its support.
Screw him, he tried to stab the Ukrainians in the back with some of his suggestions in talks with Putin. Putin made a total goat out of him because the Russians were only going to deal with the US as the only credible party on making some kind of arrangement.
The sad truth is that China is the greater danger to the west. Unlike Russia it is a successful undemocratic and authoritarian society, and one with expansionist aims.
"Lecturers admit self-censoring classes with Chinese students
Academics are self-censoring to avoid causing offence to students from authoritarian states such as China, a new report has said. Two thirds said they believed that academic freedom was under threat in higher education and more than two fifths felt the same about their freedom to select teaching content. The survey of 1,500 social science faculty members across a range of British institutions was conducted by academics from Oxford, Exeter and Portsmouth universities."
The sad truth is that China is the greater danger to the west. Unlike Russia it is a successful undemocratic and authoritarian society, and one with expansionist aims.
Both of them are an absolute menace to the free world.
Turkish Air Force transport plane now flying over Odessa, heading towards Kyiv, I think. That's interesting. I thought they'd been trying to stay neutral.
The sad truth is that China is the greater danger to the west. Unlike Russia it is a successful undemocratic and authoritarian society, and one with expansionist aims.
Both of them are an absolute menace to the free world.
There appear to be Turkish airforce transport flights on their way to Ukraine as we speak. You have to wonder whether they have goods or are running an evacuation.
Phil Stewart @phildstewart (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, officials say.
I called this one pretty accurately based on intuition/gut feeling.
The ward was 2 Lab, 1 Con in 2019.
A decent showing for TUSC. Dave Nellist is standing for the party at next week's Erdington by-election.
We'll have to see what happens in Erdington and if he can exploit any local issues against Birmingham City Council. I have my doubts he can get more than 3/4% and actually hold his deposit as he has struggled to get more than 10% in his former ward in Coventry but we'll see.
There appear to be Turkish airforce transport flights on their way to Ukraine as we speak. You have to wonder whether they have goods or are running an evacuation.
Why is there a flight from Kyiv to Almaty 100km west of Kyiv?
Diverted route, travelling over the east of Ukraine right now is a no no. or is a mis-read. The commercial ADSB sits occasionally throw up an oddity.
Virtuosic Zelensky speech, addressed to Russians in Russian. "You've been told I'm going to bomb Donbass. Bomb what? The Donetsk stadium where the locals and I cheered for our team at Euro 2012? The bar where we drank when they lost? Luhansk, where my best friend's mom lives?"
Yes, it is probably useless as a tactic. But years from now, people will be able to watch this speech, contrast it with Putin's hourlong episode of Drunk History, and make their conclusions
The sad truth is that China is the greater danger to the west. Unlike Russia it is a successful undemocratic and authoritarian society, and one with expansionist aims.
"Lecturers admit self-censoring classes with Chinese students
Academics are self-censoring to avoid causing offence to students from authoritarian states such as China, a new report has said. Two thirds said they believed that academic freedom was under threat in higher education and more than two fifths felt the same about their freedom to select teaching content. The survey of 1,500 social science faculty members across a range of British institutions was conducted by academics from Oxford, Exeter and Portsmouth universities."
Typically the problem being avoided is not so much offence to the students, rather putting the students on a blacklist if the CCP spy in the class takes offence.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
What, were we supposed to plan a massive joint infrastructure project with Russia, just in case they did something mad and we could show our disapproval by binning it?
There appear to be Turkish airforce transport flights on their way to Ukraine as we speak. You have to wonder whether they have goods or are running an evacuation.
Why is there a flight from Kyiv to Almaty 100km west of Kyiv?
Diverted route, travelling over the east of Ukraine right now is a no no. or is a mis-read. The commercial ADSB sits occasionally throw up an oddity.
I understand the Ukraine-Russian border is a no-no, but right now it looks set to loop right about Belarus... sure it's an error?
Could be a massive divert, a mis-code, or else its not really flying to Almaty
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
It’s come to something when even the bankers are demanding more sanctions.
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
Boris is weak and a disgrace. Can't even keep up with the Germans in standing up to the Russians. I am voting Starmer if he is still in charge at the election. Tories need to sort their shit out.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
It’s come to something when even the bankers are demanding more sanctions.
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
Boris is weak and a disgrace. Can't even keep up with the Germans in standing up to the Russians. I am voting Starmer if he is still in charge at the election. Tories need to sort their shit out.
They seem terrified of London losing oligarch money - not just Russian oligarch money but that of any oligarch.
I think it fits into my theory that Conservative politicians specifically and the establishment generally thinks that 'business' is all about being a 10% agent to someone else's money.
After midnight in #Kyiv. The mood grim, friends calling each other, the city still up and drinking tea. The rumour - from officials, foreign contacts, journalists - is that Russian action will began at 4am local time. #Ukraine is bracing, joking, hugging, loving. We wait
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
It’s come to something when even the bankers are demanding more sanctions.
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
I did say after Boris's announcement and the debate the other day, but most people didn't agree with me that the sanctions we weak and confusing.
I said wait and see what more comes out. You were right.
In fairness I thought your response to me the other day was right and that I was overreacting. I was more concerned with Boris's confusing responses to questions to be honest.
I'm no fan of Mrs T, but you just feel her response in these circumstances would have been more appropriate. Stirring speech and appropriate sanctions.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
It’s come to something when even the bankers are demanding more sanctions.
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
Boris is weak and a disgrace. Can't even keep up with the Germans in standing up to the Russians. I am voting Starmer if he is still in charge at the election. Tories need to sort their shit out.
They seem terrified of London losing oligarch money - not just Russian oligarch money but that of any oligarch.
I think it fits into my theory that Conservative politicians specifically and the establishment generally thinks that 'business' is all about being a 10% agent to someone else's money.
I remember that comment / theory, I think it’s a good one.
And it suggests that the UK’s politico-media-financial nexus is completely divorced from the actual mechanics of either business growth or economic development.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
What, were we supposed to plan a massive joint infrastructure project with Russia, just in case they did something mad and we could show our disapproval by binning it?
One that was always a massive win for Russia if built.
However, some of the bankers at the meeting bluntly told Johnson that they did not believe the UK sanctions had gone far enough, according to two people familiar with the discussion.
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
It’s come to something when even the bankers are demanding more sanctions.
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
I did say after Boris's announcement and the debate the other day, but most people didn't agree with me that the sanctions we weak and confusing.
I said wait and see what more comes out. You were right.
Well, we can't suspend Nord Stream 2 because we weren't daft enough to think it was a good idea in the first place. Putin isn't going to stop for economic reasons, otherwise he'd never have started. Are the Germans going to stop buying gas altogether?
It looks like Ukraine will need hardware more than anything else, and that's what we should concentrate on. It might at least give the generals something to think about.
The Estonian Parliament just unanimously passed a resolution condemning the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It entails important language. I encourage everyone to read it and think about the gravity of what is said.
You would not want to start with where we are, but let’s assume Russia invades the “rest of the Donbas”.
We (the West) will need to arm rump Ukraine to the teeth and expend every effort to bring into the European economic system.
If Putin goes further, and takes Kiev etc, we’re back to Cold War level confrontation.
It is the Budapest, the Prague of our times.
Prague was 1968. I visited it in 1978. In those 10 years, the Soviet Union had systematically looted everything of value and shipped it to Russia. The same will happen with Ukraine.
It is all happening in the early hours at Kiev's main airport, between Turkish airforce flights, presumably conducting an evacuation, private jets taking off in the early hours and the sudden return of a commercial flight due to go to Moldova. You just hope its a technical issue and not a return due to some other danger.
Interesting dilemma for Russia - do they shoot down US drones flying over the part of Ukraine outside the two new "Republics"? If not, then there is real time information on all the Russian troop movements. But if they do.....
Interesting dilemma for Russia - do they shoot down US drones flying over the part of Ukraine outside the two new "Republics"? If not, then there is real time information on all the Russian troop movements. But if they do.....
Chances are the US could do the work from a bit further out but that may limit how deep within Russia they can see.
Ukrainian airspace may well be shutting in entirety at the moment, not just in the East.
Interesting dilemma for Russia - do they shoot down US drones flying over the part of Ukraine outside the two new "Republics"? If not, then there is real time information on all the Russian troop movements. But if they do.....
Chances are the US could do the work from a bit further out but that may limit how deep within Russia they can see.
Ukrainian airspace may well be shutting in entirety at the moment, not just in the East.
I'm also assuming there is a hell of a lot of US satellite coverage over Ukraine/Russia right now.....
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence. In the hours to come #Russia will -conduct strikes on air defense systems -move to cut off #Kyiv from eastern #Ukraine -move to cut off Ukraine’s military forces on the line of contact in the east to prevent them from falling back to defend Kyiv
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence. In the hours to come #Russia will -conduct strikes on air defense systems -move to cut off #Kyiv from eastern #Ukraine -move to cut off Ukraine’s military forces on the line of contact in the east to prevent them from falling back to defend Kyiv
If true, sadly the exact scenario I predicated to Sunil of this parish a few days back, they'd seek to attack down the contact line and seal off a considerable portion of the Ukrainian military that is in that area.
Someone on here earlier suggested that I get my information from the circus when I suggested tonight could be the H hour for an attack to start.
Air launched missile strikes are reported incoming & Putin is on the telly...
The weakness of Western sanctions caused him to go ahead. We now need to learn our lesson and go hard this time. Collapse the Russian economy and stop hand wringing about it. Then fund a long guerilla war in Ukraine.
Five to six explosions in Kyiv: BBC reporter The BBC's Paul Adams in Kyiv has just reported hearing five to six "distant explosions" in Kyiv, and says there are reports are coming in of explosions elsewhere in the country.
The West can't allow Putin to get away with this. I wonder what the non-military options are.
Eventually we will be forced to use military options. Maybe not in Ukraine, but when NATO members start getting invaded. The longer we wait, the higher the cost when we eventually realize what is necessary.
On the latest episode in the endless Parliamentary renovation saga:
Senior Tory MP Andrea Leadsom says:
“A partial decant or staying put means we continue to risk the palace burning down, a major asbestos or sewage leak or a major water failure. I think it is ridiculous that the tough decision the House took in 2018 has been reopened yet again.”
Dame Andrea hasn't realised that a lot of her colleagues probably want it to burn down. Then they can save themselves the trouble of spending grinding decades and tens of billions in hugely unpopular expenditure on the painstaking restoration of a knackered old Parliament, and simply build a nice shiny new one with modern debating chambers and lovely, bright, airy, spacious offices (and probably for half the price, too.)
Wait and see. When the time comes they'll task the London Fire Brigade with rescuing Big Ben and Westminster Hall, and let the rest of it go up like a Roman Candle on Bonfire Night.
Parliament could go on a tour round the country for 10 years while they fix the building.
That's probably needlessly expensive - there's more to the place than the Chambers and a lot of associated office space that would be required, so fixing up different places to be suitable whilst continuously on the move adds to the complexity and expense. Where they go is not a simple question no doubt, but given it means to refurb is so much cheaper and quicker, that frees up the cash to resolve the problems of where they would go.
Plus, let's be honest, if they thought it was going to take 10 years, it would actually take 20.
The estimate in the article my original message referred back to was that restoration assuming a full decant would take between 19 and 28 years, with a cost of anything from £7bn to £13bn.
That probably means it'd take half a century and cost £50bn. It's small wonder that they quote Rees-Mogg suggesting that Parliament would probably never return to the Palace if it left.
But how? Genuinely how?
I get that decrepit Victorian palaces are expensive to repair and maintain. But we should be talking tens of millions not £50 billion!?
Three hours before the invasion began I got this sobering message here in Ukraine from a senior pentagon official “You are likely in the last few hours of peace on the European continent for a long time to come. Be careful “
Russia has issued a NOTAM closing the airspace along the Ukrainian border.
Does this mean Russia is only intending to kill people on the ground this time, instead of shooting down passenger jets? I guess we can all celebrate progress, no matter how pitiful.
Actually the Ukrainians issued a NOTAM on closing its Eastern airports. In effect what it was saying was anything in the impacted area will probably been seen as hostile.
On the wider history, one Barack Obama has something to answer for. The Obama policy to Russia was one of' 'if we ignore it they will stop the provocations' . Its no mistake Putin started this ramp up over Ukraine early on in Biden's tenure but it turns out the former vice president is a little bit sterner than his former boss who spent 4 years doing next to fuck all on this front.
Obama was an awful president from a foreign policy perspective. Simply awful.
Its six in the morning in Tallinn and the all out invasion of Ukraine has been running for about two hours. As we feared, the Russian army is attacking along the line of control and also undertaking sea borne attacks against Mariupol and possibly Odessa, as well as a direct attack on Kyiv. Someone else just posted the resolution passed overnight in the Estonian Parliament, which pretty much sets out why Putin is a war criminal.
Biden has been right about the scale of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and it is now essential that the Ukrainian army holds on, they are defending not only their own lands and freedom but also ours.
As I said in a previous post, this is not now about Ukraine, it is about a criminal in the Kremlin and the cowards who have enabled him, and many of those are not just in Russia.
We are expecting further direct cyber attacks, as well as attacks on cables and satillites so communications accross Europe may become difficult.
We are praying, but the only way Putin can be stopped is by defeat.
Today is Estonia´s national day, it is going to be a very sombre one.
There are an amazing amount of Russia experts on here, and indeed on Twitter.
The wonderful world of Google and Social Media...
I love Russia, its history, landscapes, culture, art, music and literature, but boy do they have a long history of terrible governments going back centuries. Most countries get a bad government every now and then, but the culture of tyranny in Russia is a very hard one to break.
IMV, Russia (*) had a more defensive posture than NATO during the Cold War. America and the West were sending carrier groups around the world, in a grey version of the Great White Fleet. I can't blame Russia for having a defensive posture, given their rather chaotic history of invasions - and not just Napoleon and Hitler.
I can understand the Russian state for being paranoid about invasions. But that does not excuse their bullying behaviour towards smaller neighbouring nations. If anything, those countries have more reason to be paranoid about their larger eastern neighbour.
(*) Russia, as opposed to Communism.
Well, defensive if you mean "I set up my defense in other people's countries. At gun point."
The post 1990 expansion/contraction of NATO/EEC/Warsaw Pact/COMECON shows how those were viewed by the recipients.....
Russia has issued a NOTAM closing the airspace along the Ukrainian border.
Does this mean Russia is only intending to kill people on the ground this time, instead of shooting down passenger jets? I guess we can all celebrate progress, no matter how pitiful.
Actually the Ukrainians issued a NOTAM on closing its Eastern airports. In effect what it was saying was anything in the impacted area will probably been seen as hostile.
On the wider history, one Barack Obama has something to answer for. The Obama policy to Russia was one of' 'if we ignore it they will stop the provocations' . Its no mistake Putin started this ramp up over Ukraine early on in Biden's tenure but it turns out the former vice president is a little bit sterner than his former boss who spent 4 years doing next to fuck all on this front.
Obama was an awful president from a foreign policy perspective. Simply awful.
In holding Putin in check, only outdone in awfulness by Trump.
The West can't allow Putin to get away with this. I wonder what the non-military options are.
Eventually we will be forced to use military options. Maybe not in Ukraine, but when NATO members start getting invaded. The longer we wait, the higher the cost when we eventually realize what is necessary.
Finland and Sweden joining NATO must be a strong possibility in the near future, perhaps very near future.
Comments
Shortly to be compounded by Trump's return the way things are looking.
Seems like a long shot. Not ruling it out in the face of an unreasonable demand to do so is one thing, actively putting them on the path to either, even if that would take a long time?
Good that they note this has been going on since 2014 though.
I mean though 3 breaks while bloody walking.
But that would require me to trawl through old threads. Suffice it to say they were all of the PB Tory / Brexit persuasion.
Finland joins NATO
Russia/Stop the War - look, see how NATO is aggressively expanding to push a cold war mentality, this is why we have to defend ourselves
Everyone else - you're not great at putting 2 and 2 together, are you?
If the Ukrainians get away with losing Crimea and the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but nothing more, then that would be a real surprise at this stage. Judging from Putin's recent rant, it seems obvious that he regards most or all of Ukraine as stolen Russian territory. And he wants it back.
Yes, it is probably useless as a tactic. But years from now, people will be able to watch this speech, contrast it with Putin's hourlong episode of Drunk History, and make their conclusions
https://twitter.com/michaelidov/status/1496632550449577985
[Translated]
To the Ukrainian people, to President Zelensky, this evening, I reiterate our support, our attachment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In economic and financial matters, in terms of defensive equipment, France will continue to provide its support.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1496628024166559747
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lecturers-admit-self-censoring-classes-with-chinese-students-wjlf07lng
"Lecturers admit self-censoring classes with Chinese students
Academics are self-censoring to avoid causing offence to students from authoritarian states such as China, a new report has said. Two thirds said they believed that academic freedom was under threat in higher education and more than two fifths felt the same about their freedom to select teaching content. The survey of 1,500 social science faculty members across a range of British institutions was conducted by academics from Oxford, Exeter and Portsmouth universities."
https://www.flightradar24.com/TUAF600/2aeb6f7d
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Ugh.
LAB: 48.8% (+6.0)
CON: 45.7% (+7.6)
TUSC: 5.6% (+5.6)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Votes cast: 1,241
No UKIP (-19.1) as prev.
I called this one pretty accurately based on intuition/gut feeling.
The ward was 2 Lab, 1 Con in 2019.
@phildstewart
(Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, officials say.
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496601557957328899
They praised the German decision to suspend the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project as an example of what needed to be done to have an impact.
https://www.ft.com/content/267b7b4b-7992-4262-a0d7-d7894d8300ae?shareType=nongift
We have goaded Russia into invading a country we had no intention of defending.
MARY DEJEVSKY"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/02/23/how-the-west-let-down-ukraine/
Boris should go, we can’t afford his fraudulent clown operation any more (actually we never could).
I think it fits into my theory that Conservative politicians specifically and the establishment generally thinks that 'business' is all about being a 10% agent to someone else's money.
@lukeharding1968
After midnight in #Kyiv. The mood grim, friends calling each other, the city still up and drinking tea. The rumour - from officials, foreign contacts, journalists - is that Russian action will began at 4am local time. #Ukraine is bracing, joking, hugging, loving. We wait
10:45 PM · Feb 23, 2022"
https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968/status/1496617336740139012
I'm no fan of Mrs T, but you just feel her response in these circumstances would have been more appropriate. Stirring speech and appropriate sanctions.
And it suggests that the UK’s politico-media-financial nexus is completely divorced from the actual mechanics of either business growth or economic development.
https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE12/2aea8ac9
Putin isn't going to stop for economic reasons, otherwise he'd never have started. Are the Germans going to stop buying gas altogether?
It looks like Ukraine will need hardware more than anything else, and that's what we should concentrate on. It might at least give the generals something to think about.
I think the interesting part is that they have the transponder on so that everyone on the planet can see.
Prague was 1968. I visited it in 1978. In those 10 years, the Soviet Union had systematically looted everything of value and shipped it to Russia. The same will happen with Ukraine.
Ukrainian airspace may well be shutting in entirety at the moment, not just in the East.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1496665111238352896?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Kalanchak outpost is under attack. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are running away #Crimea #Ukraine #Crimea
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1496666879418589190?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1496666879418589190|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.redditmedia.com/mediaembed/szyxje?responsive=trueis_nightmode=false
First footage is emerging near Mykolaivka.
You can hear the heavy clashes between Ukraine and Russian forces. #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/dralakbarov/status/1496662247682236425?s=21
The #Russian invasion of #Ukraine is now underway
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence.
In the hours to come #Russia will
-conduct strikes on air defense systems
-move to cut off #Kyiv from eastern #Ukraine
-move to cut off Ukraine’s military forces on the line of contact in the east to prevent them from falling back to defend Kyiv
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496670465879941120
https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496675017018552321?cxt=HHwWgsC92fH_oMUpAAAA
Someone on here earlier suggested that I get my information from the circus when I suggested tonight could be the H hour for an attack to start.
Air launched missile strikes are reported incoming & Putin is on the telly...
https://twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine/status/1496678720702136321?cxt=HHwWgoCypbzXosUpAAAA
Russian President Vladimir Putin has just announced a "military operation" in Ukraine's Donbas region.
Yet.
🇷🇺⚡️Russian, DPR/LPR troops in Donbass have started firing salvos of Grad rockets.
with video..
Seems air strikes and cruise missiles are hitting almost any where, including Kyiv. Its all fucked and I'm going to bed.
God know how many are going to die over the next few days.
Five to six explosions in Kyiv: BBC reporter
The BBC's Paul Adams in Kyiv has just reported hearing five to six "distant explosions" in Kyiv, and says there are reports are coming in of explosions elsewhere in the country.
Fuck you Putin. This was entirely unnecessary.
An amphibious assault on the key port city of #Mariupol is now underway
Ground forces now moving in from Belarus,Crimea & from #Russia
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496689463761817600?s=21
I get that decrepit Victorian palaces are expensive to repair and maintain. But we should be talking tens of millions not £50 billion!?
https://twitter.com/martharaddatz/status/1496695197241073666
Biden has been right about the scale of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and it is now essential that the Ukrainian army holds on, they are defending not only their own lands and freedom but also ours.
As I said in a previous post, this is not now about Ukraine, it is about a criminal in the Kremlin and the cowards who have enabled him, and many of those are not just in Russia.
We are expecting further direct cyber attacks, as well as attacks on cables and satillites so communications accross Europe may become difficult.
We are praying, but the only way Putin can be stopped is by defeat.
Today is Estonia´s national day, it is going to be a very sombre one.
Conservatives increase their share of the vote more than Labour but are still behind.
How could that be more than a technical (eg defection) gain from the conservatives as maths suggests they lost last time too?
We should be ashamed of ourselves, and give every sympathy to Putin, whose hand we have forced.
(for evidence of doubt, /sarcasm)