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It’s the economy again, stupid – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,797
edited March 2022 in General
It’s the economy again, stupid – politicalbetting.com

As UK inflation hits a 30-year high, 71% of Britons – including 57% of Conservative voters – say the government is mishandling the issuehttps://t.co/gnFTZqsd5I pic.twitter.com/SNwNPsTGMe

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  • Options
    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,531
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    There are going to be some choice “hot takes”

    For anyone keeping track of what Boris Johnson has done to the Queen:

    🔻 Lied to her
    🔻 Implicated her in illegally shutting Parliament
    🔻 Made her sit alone at her husband's funeral while his office were hungover
    🔻 Scrapped covid restrictions and 3 weeks later she gets Covid


    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1495367783122714630

    For the past year or so, I'd say that Johnson, for all his faults, has made the right calls on COVID. Perhaps that was just luck, but then, it's good to be lucky.
    Ever since we found that we had effective vaccines the decisions have been rather obvious, though. Vaccinate as many people as possible, particularly those most at risk, as quickly as possible, and then enjoy the result of the vaccine ending the public health emergency.

    What's surprising is that so many people have found it so difficult to make the mental adjustment that the vaccine really does reduce the risk sufficiently that the emergency is over.
    On @Malmesbury figures an over 85 year old with covid has a 25%+ chance of hospital admission, about 10% mortality.
    Less than that (at least for deaths) - because the current numbers are on descent and the lag.

    Looking at peaks, the numbers for the 85+ seem to line up as

    Cases Peak -> Admissions peak 11 days later -> Deaths peak 20 days later

    Which give us Case/Admission Ratio of 4-5
    and a Case/Fatality Ratio of 15-19
    Though have to allow that HM is 95 not 85, so those figures might underestimate.
    For deaths we have data segmented to 90+ and cases to match

    Looks like 14-17 CFR for 90+
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308
    In case people missed this:

    DUP MLA Christopher Stalford dies aged 39
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60451845

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    Thinking about this though, one of the requirements is an ability to act in the absence of the Sovereign. E.g. while they are out of the country.

    So it might be possible to exclude Harry on the basis he has emigrated and Andrew on the basis he can't perform public duties.

    OK, that brings Andrew's daughters into the equation, but that might still be a possible solution.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,462
    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    Inflation is killer for any politician, because there isnt really any way of fixing it by just announcing some things in the budget. You can make it worse though.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,846
    ydoethur said:

    In case people missed this:

    DUP MLA Christopher Stalford dies aged 39
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60451845

    A personal tragedy perhaps, but what significance? It's not as if the DUP are doing anything other than sulk at the moment.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,343

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,846

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The timing doesn't fit for Charles and Camilla. Almost certainly via staff, as they have an outbreak.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,724
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442
    Go look on twitter.....plenty are connecting the two. Oh wait you download the whole of Remainer twitter every day, so you know this.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,967
    FPT
    (but weirdly on topic)

    Malmesbury said:
    » show previous quotes
    Nope - Gorbachev was known as the reformer from long before his rise to power. He was a moderate on implementation, but hardline Communist in theory. So when he removed the savagery of the suppression of opposition to the regime, he was surprised to discover that he had accidentally pulled the whole thing down - he wasn't intending to reform the system. Just the implementation.

    Rodríguez was corrupt, in bed with the drug cartels of the day, mostly owned by the CIA and generally as bad as you could get. Some say that the CIA bribed hm to introduce democracy. Others that he thought that he could ride a wave of popularity by introducing democracy and escape justice by doing so. Or maybe he just got religion? You could write one hell of screen play about that....

    Rodríguez suceded in his aims. Gorbachev failed - deservedly.

    EDT : PJ O'Rourke wrote about the Paraguay coup in Give War A Chance.

    I said:
    PJ O'Rourke a really sad loss this week. My favourite quotes of his are:

    "And omnipresent amid all the frenzy of Shanghai is that famous portrait, that modern icon. The faintly smiling, bland, yet somehow threatening visage appears in brilliant red hues on placards and posters, and is painted huge on the sides of buildings. Some call him a genius. Others blame him for the deaths of millions. There are those who say his military reputation was inflated, yet he conquered the mainland in short order. Yes, it’s Colonel Sanders."

    And
    "Republicans are the party that says that government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it."
  • Options

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    Unless you're making a point I'm too dumb to get, I imagine it's moot not mute.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    FPT:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Putin getting out of it?

    Firstly he's damaged the Ukrainian economy and reminded them that their freedom from Moscow comes at a price - the threat of military action. He's also helped to prop up mini me Lukashenko who's been under pressure from protesters who believe that he rigged the 2020 election.

    He's de facto annexed Belarus while everyone was looking at Ukraine.
    That's actually a good point - and one that will give Putin some nice Brownie Points with the Greater Russian Nationalists.

    Could it be enough for the climb down? My guess is that it isn't, sadly.
    Surely Belarus was already all-but annexed.
    Pretty much. but each step will make the Greater Russian Nationalists feel a warmth in their hearts. Nothing like getting Kyiv, of course.
    Or Kiev even :)
    Putin is going to HAVE to invade, if only for the certainty of ever after being taunted as the Kiev Chicken.....
    Which tabloid is going to send the office junior chasing Putin around in a chicken suit… and how long would they last in the role?
    Watching John Oliver explain gleefully to his mostly American audience, that in Britian we actually send people dressed as chickens to follow politicians around for weeks on end, was very funny indeed.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,343

    Go look on twitter.....plenty are connecting the two. Oh wait you download the whole of Remainer twitter every day, so you know this.

    I haven't seen a single Tweet

    I guess I don't follow as many numpties as you
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,724
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Go look on twitter.....plenty are connecting the two. Oh wait you download the whole of Remainer twitter every day, so you know this.

    I haven't seen a single Tweet

    I guess I don't follow as many numpties as you
    LOL, we all know you follow 1000s of numpties, who you "retweet" incessantly every day on here, without any thought of accuracy, which regularly make you look a tit.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,320
    Well. I remember the economic debate since 2011. Every lefty economist followed Paul Krugman into demands for high inflation, saying they wanted to bring down asset prices, encourage real wage growth through raising real demand, and informally default on debts. This was often linked to an anti-German narrative on Greek and Italian debt negotiations, and falsely-named "Keynesian" advocacy for permanent deficit spending in the manner of Gordon Brown. Now we have high inflation, we still have high asset prices, nominal wage growth can't keep up, demand is still suppressed, and just about their only success is that debt is spiralling upward. Those same folks do not seem to be happy with the outcomes nor do they have any new solution (considering tax-and-spend has always been in their preferred toolkit).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    In case people missed this:

    DUP MLA Christopher Stalford dies aged 39
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60451845

    A personal tragedy perhaps, but what significance? It's not as if the DUP are doing anything other than sulk at the moment.
    Maybe I'm more shocked simply because he's the same age as me to within a few months.

    One question may be whether there is a co-option or not. Given it's so close to the May elections I would guess not but I could be wrong.

    It might also make it harder for the DUP to hold their seat in South Belfast. Or possibly easier if there's a sympathy vote.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,967
    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    That rather begs the question of how we can get it down. The most obvious answers are higher interest rates, fiscal tightening, reducing the money supply by crimping credit, increasing taxes to reduce demand, yes, I am starting to see the problem in selling that lot.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    EPG said:

    Well. I remember the economic debate since 2011. Every lefty economist followed Paul Krugman into demands for high inflation, saying they wanted to bring down asset prices, encourage real wage growth through raising real demand, and informally default on debts. This was often linked to an anti-German narrative on Greek and Italian debt negotiations, and falsely-named "Keynesian" advocacy for permanent deficit spending in the manner of Gordon Brown. Now we have high inflation, we still have high asset prices, nominal wage growth can't keep up, demand is still suppressed, and just about their only success is that debt is spiralling upward. Those same folks do not seem to be happy with the outcomes nor do they have any new solution (considering tax-and-spend has always been in their preferred toolkit).

    The next couple of years are going to be painful, as the world recovers from the pandemic and life gets back to normal.

    UK is well placed to recover - the biggest issues at the moment are the supply chain slowdowns and high gas prices thanks to Russia, both of which are getting better. The inflation we are seeing is likely to be transient, and can be dealt with by reverse QE if it looks more persistent.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    That rather begs the question of how we can get it down. The most obvious answers are higher interest rates, fiscal tightening, reducing the money supply by crimping credit, increasing taxes to reduce demand, yes, I am starting to see the problem in selling that lot.
    Obviously needs a Panglossian, bullshitting Bertie Booster to get the public on board. If only such a person was available.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,967
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I think even Jimmy Carr would struggle to make a joke out of those who are utterly convinced that Boris can do nothing right and that the UK is responsible for every world problem that comes along. Although personally, I do find the Boris is just lucky in his opponents meme mildly amusing.
  • Options

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    Do you think Boris is deranged? I don't, I just think he is a compulsive liar. I don't think he can be blamed for the Queen's infection. More likely to be familial. Didn't someone say stay at home and save Granny?.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,967

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    That rather begs the question of how we can get it down. The most obvious answers are higher interest rates, fiscal tightening, reducing the money supply by crimping credit, increasing taxes to reduce demand, yes, I am starting to see the problem in selling that lot.
    Obviously needs a Panglossian, bullshitting Bertie Booster to get the public on board. If only such a person was available.
    You calling another Boris win then?
  • Options
    It will be interesting seeing what happens to pay rises during the next few months.

    Anecdotally people I know have been getting the biggest pay rises they've had for decades - though in some cases this might not match their cost of living increases.

    For those who live within their means and save plentifully each month a significant pay rise is perhaps nice psychologically.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,588
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    That rather begs the question of how we can get it down. The most obvious answers are higher interest rates, fiscal tightening, reducing the money supply by crimping credit, increasing taxes to reduce demand, yes, I am starting to see the problem in selling that lot.
    I got my first anecdotal evidence of an inflation mentality taking hold last week, talking to our French architect about a renovation project we’re doing on a barn.

    I paraphrase: “the artisans (their word for tradesmen) are finding it easier to raise prices now because people know there are shortages, and they also know that even if things seem expensive now, they will be more so in a year’s time so there’s no sense in delaying”.

    That last comment is classic inflation economics 101. Inflation expectations. And this in a country - France - that’s seen well over a decade of house price stagnation and fairly stable material costs.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,531
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    (but weirdly on topic)

    Malmesbury said:
    » show previous quotes
    Nope - Gorbachev was known as the reformer from long before his rise to power. He was a moderate on implementation, but hardline Communist in theory. So when he removed the savagery of the suppression of opposition to the regime, he was surprised to discover that he had accidentally pulled the whole thing down - he wasn't intending to reform the system. Just the implementation.

    Rodríguez was corrupt, in bed with the drug cartels of the day, mostly owned by the CIA and generally as bad as you could get. Some say that the CIA bribed hm to introduce democracy. Others that he thought that he could ride a wave of popularity by introducing democracy and escape justice by doing so. Or maybe he just got religion? You could write one hell of screen play about that....

    Rodríguez suceded in his aims. Gorbachev failed - deservedly.

    EDT : PJ O'Rourke wrote about the Paraguay coup in Give War A Chance.

    I said:
    PJ O'Rourke a really sad loss this week. My favourite quotes of his are:

    "And omnipresent amid all the frenzy of Shanghai is that famous portrait, that modern icon. The faintly smiling, bland, yet somehow threatening visage appears in brilliant red hues on placards and posters, and is painted huge on the sides of buildings. Some call him a genius. Others blame him for the deaths of millions. There are those who say his military reputation was inflated, yet he conquered the mainland in short order. Yes, it’s Colonel Sanders."

    And
    "Republicans are the party that says that government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it."

    "Stroessner was so old and nasty that if Latin America were a soap opera - and some argue it is - you could cast him as the cold disciplinarian day that you, sensitive Augusto Pinochet rebels against. Stroessner was all wizened and droopy and spent his days reviewing troops, sitting in the stands in a uniform copied off the cover of Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band and wearing one of those big generals hats with two pounds of brass macaroni on the brim which would fall down over his eyes while he snoozed to the lulling sounds of goose steps."

    "It is the beauty of well-designed fascism that it gives every piss-ant an ant hill to piss from."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    edited February 2022
    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I think even Jimmy Carr would struggle to make a joke out of those who are utterly convinced that Boris can do nothing right and that the UK is responsible for every world problem that comes along. Although personally, I do find the Boris is just lucky in his opponents meme mildly amusing.
    Very odd. Do you dispute that he is lazy and a liar, or just not mind? Would you employ him?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    Exactly and the Queen has been double vaccinated and had her booster, so even despite her age I suspect she will be fine
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116
    On topic.

    Got the word farting in there 🤗

    We’re you on a romantic break last week TSE? Did it go well?
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should suggest. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    Your core vote is largely elderly and a lot of them are therefore mad keen on Covid restrictions, but that 34% probably isn't far wide of the mark.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,175
    Off topic 1: The crazy heavy rain has reached us.

    Off topic 2: Less than 2 months since testing positive (on Christmas Day) my wife has another dose of Covid. Mild cold-like symptoms so far. Bit of a bugger as she was due to visit a friend in Kent this week.

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should suggest. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    Your core vote is largely elderly and a lot of them are therefore mad keen on Covid restrictions, but that 34% probably isn't far wide of the mark.
    Any polling on that? I am seeing the most vocal lockdown opponent I know next Saturday, at her 90th birthday party.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,967

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    (but weirdly on topic)

    Malmesbury said:
    » show previous quotes
    Nope - Gorbachev was known as the reformer from long before his rise to power. He was a moderate on implementation, but hardline Communist in theory. So when he removed the savagery of the suppression of opposition to the regime, he was surprised to discover that he had accidentally pulled the whole thing down - he wasn't intending to reform the system. Just the implementation.

    Rodríguez was corrupt, in bed with the drug cartels of the day, mostly owned by the CIA and generally as bad as you could get. Some say that the CIA bribed hm to introduce democracy. Others that he thought that he could ride a wave of popularity by introducing democracy and escape justice by doing so. Or maybe he just got religion? You could write one hell of screen play about that....

    Rodríguez suceded in his aims. Gorbachev failed - deservedly.

    EDT : PJ O'Rourke wrote about the Paraguay coup in Give War A Chance.

    I said:
    PJ O'Rourke a really sad loss this week. My favourite quotes of his are:

    "And omnipresent amid all the frenzy of Shanghai is that famous portrait, that modern icon. The faintly smiling, bland, yet somehow threatening visage appears in brilliant red hues on placards and posters, and is painted huge on the sides of buildings. Some call him a genius. Others blame him for the deaths of millions. There are those who say his military reputation was inflated, yet he conquered the mainland in short order. Yes, it’s Colonel Sanders."

    And
    "Republicans are the party that says that government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it."

    "Stroessner was so old and nasty that if Latin America were a soap opera - and some argue it is - you could cast him as the cold disciplinarian day that you, sensitive Augusto Pinochet rebels against. Stroessner was all wizened and droopy and spent his days reviewing troops, sitting in the stands in a uniform copied off the cover of Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band and wearing one of those big generals hats with two pounds of brass macaroni on the brim which would fall down over his eyes while he snoozed to the lulling sounds of goose steps."

    "It is the beauty of well-designed fascism that it gives every piss-ant an ant hill to piss from."
    I think that his instinctive and natural humour meant people did not pay enough attention to what he was saying. Eat the Rich is a superb book and one of the most compelling arguments for the importance of the rule of law that I have read. And its certainly a lot more fun that John Locke or Hart, who I struggled through at University.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,228
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Putin getting out of it?

    Firstly he's damaged the Ukrainian economy and reminded them that their freedom from Moscow comes at a price - the threat of military action. He's also helped to prop up mini me Lukashenko who's been under pressure from protesters who believe that he rigged the 2020 election.

    He's de facto annexed Belarus while everyone was looking at Ukraine.
    That's actually a good point - and one that will give Putin some nice Brownie Points with the Greater Russian Nationalists.

    Could it be enough for the climb down? My guess is that it isn't, sadly.
    Surely Belarus was already all-but annexed.
    Pretty much. but each step will make the Greater Russian Nationalists feel a warmth in their hearts. Nothing like getting Kyiv, of course.
    Or Kiev even :)
    Putin is going to HAVE to invade, if only for the certainty of ever after being taunted as the Kiev Chicken.....
    Which tabloid is going to send the office junior chasing Putin around in a chicken suit… and how long would they last in the role?
    Watching John Oliver explain gleefully to his mostly American audience, that in Britian we actually send people dressed as chickens to follow politicians around for weeks on end, was very funny indeed.
    Do you have a link?

    I tried google but all I came up with a segment on the Hungarian chicken party candidate for president (which was pretty funny…)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should suggest. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    Your core vote is largely elderly and a lot of them are therefore mad keen on Covid restrictions, but that 34% probably isn't far wide of the mark.
    According to Yougov not only are 55% of over 65s still voting Conservative but the Conservatives still lead 37% to 35% for Labour with 50-64 year olds too.

    Even pensioners don't want to shut pubs and shops again, even if they might want to keep the isolation period for Covid cases

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4l2mmmwnvw/TheTimes_VI_Results_220211_W2.pdf
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    Indeed.

    Charles and WIlliam have been taking on more and more duties in recent years, as they try and find ways to work around the two black sheep without resort to the formal processes of kicking them out of the family, which as you say requires primary legislation.

    Apparently HMQ was less than amused when the Cambridges all turned up at Sandringham in a ‘copter flown by WIlliam himself, and made it clear to him that the family are not to travel together. He;s had to give up flying himself too, apart from the military ones with appropriate support.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408

    It will be interesting seeing what happens to pay rises during the next few months.

    Anecdotally people I know have been getting the biggest pay rises they've had for decades - though in some cases this might not match their cost of living increases.

    For those who live within their means and save plentifully each month a significant pay rise is perhaps nice psychologically.

    Some employers will be forced to give rises because they calculate it's the best way to stop skilled workers handing in their notices and going elsewhere; others will plead poverty and dig their heels in. I'm on record predicting a rise in strike action against stingy bosses later in the year, but stand to be corrected by events, of course.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308
    edited February 2022
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    A regency is slightly different.

    However, the Duke of Edinburgh was appointed a Counsellor of State in 1953 so prima facie there seems no reason why Camilla and Catherine couldn't be promoted.

    Apart from @TSE going ballistic, obviously.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,642
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    Indeed.

    Charles and WIlliam have been taking on more and more duties in recent years, as they try and find ways to work around the two black sheep without resort to the formal processes of kicking them out of the family, which as you say requires primary legislation.

    Apparently HMQ was less than amused when the Cambridges all turned up at Sandringham in a ‘copter flown by WIlliam himself, and made it clear to him that the family are not to travel together. He;s had to give up flying himself too, apart from the military ones with appropriate support.
    If Willliam and all his family were killed then Harry is next in the line of succession after Charles. In which case Harry becomes Prince of Wales on the death of the Queen and King when Charles dies and Meghan would be Queen, so we certainly need them to travel seperately
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,302
    edited February 2022
    Hats off for Her Majesty:-

    The Queen tested positive for Covid-19 on Sunday but was given a reason to smile at Newbury, with exciting prospect Kincardine justifying odds-on favouritism in the 2m½f maiden hurdle.

    Buckingham Palace confirmed the monarch tested positive for Covid-19 on Sunday with mild symptoms, so a four-and-a-half-length success in the opener for the Nicky Henderson-trained runner would have come as a welcome boost.

    The five-year-old, who was also bred by the Queen, was pulled up at Ascot last time, but had previously finished a good third at Newbury. He was in much better form this time, with the 4-6 shot making all to finish well clear of Super Duper Sam.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/race-reports/newbury-winner-a-boost-for-the-queen-shortly-after-positive-covid-19-test/539205
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116

    Vice President Kamala Harris, echoing President Joe Biden's comments Friday, tells CNN's @NatashaBertrand in Munich "We believe that Putin has made his decision, period," to invade Ukraine, adding "nothing's being held back" in sharing intelligence with allies.

    https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1495356066854547456

    *off topic, though great to have a TSE thread again

    Is it really all down to Putin making his mind up? If it was London or Washington and rest of war bunker said no, it wouldn’t matter what the leaders preference was? Why would it be different in Moscow? What I’m practically saying is, if Putin, and those agreeing with him were asked by the generals, what’s the clarity of the mission we can achieve and withdraw without it being open ended or creeping into something else, and Putin and his allies can’t convincingly define that, then surely it won’t happen?

    If at some point the Ukraine leadership want a face to face with Russian counterpart’s, what would the Ukrainians hope to get from that? They would use it just to emphasise how belligerent their position is, like how Liz Truss used her Moscow trip?

    These are two good questions for this latest Sunday in pre war build up?
    Although Igor the Incinerator (Putin’s likely successor if the worst happened to Putin this week) is no doubt on side with sabre rattling to get Donetsk up everyone’s agenda, and dialogue on it not kicked into long grass like any criminal investigation into Boris Johnson, I’m not convinced Igor is on side with invasion, because Surely there’s internal politics and factions on things within Moscow government too, and Igors already allowed unease of generals to seep like a message into world news?

    Why do I think Igor as successor? Is this not the same path which brought Putin into the job? What do we know about Igor? His take on pursuing Greater Russian Nationalism from behind his desk at GRU has been brazen, merciless and blood thirsty, like a dalek, he’s likely to be far worse than Putin to deal with especially if he’s been courting the military these past years. ☹️
    Ukrainians - "emphasise how belligerent their position is" ???? Since when is "Don't invaded my country" belligerent?

    Like Napoleon, Putin has to manage a coalition of power brokers behind him. He is riding a tiger, which can eat him at any time.

    A successor to Putin is not predictable. Putin himself was supposed to be a puppet figurehead, who got out of control.

    In Paraguay, General Rodríguez overthrew Stroessner. Rodríguez was corrupt and a fully paid up member of the goose-stepping military.

    He freed the political prisoners, unbanned the opposition, introduced real democracy, and stepped down after one term as elected (genuinely) president. Then died. People are still going WTF??
    *off topic because of world war three

    “ People are still going WTF?” I love that example because it is so optimistic.

    I’m not so convinced though Malmsy. These people that come out the CHECKA, KGB, you can’t reason with them. You can’t think, what puts pressure on me we will apply to them. I don’t want to come over all neecher but They are like Daleks, they have had pityand mercy removed. They can’t see the bigger picture like we can. Can’t say to them, your people like my people, they want security, they want a decent home, decent job, come in from work the kids are doing the homework, someone cutting carrots at window, decent infrastructure, decent education, decent hospitals - you can’t say this to them, they haven’t clue what you are babbling about, they have spent their life in a basement shooting intelligentsia like you in the head with a bullet, playing tinker tailor solider spy.

    Is it like you sez we know how Putin ticks he’s a greater Russian nationalist. Or is he less emotional than that, a Dalek that only cares bout legacy? Because on his watch his legacy of greater Russia has shrunk, the autonomous bits of old Soviet Union, led by leaders who are not conditioned by being checka their whole life, look westerwards for investment, commerce, wealth and comfort and security for their people.

    I do apologise for this gonzo, I have been polishing off the wine box. We normally go out Sunday afternoon, but I said I would do a beef bourguigiynionnon. So you got me all after noon. 😦
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Putin getting out of it?

    Firstly he's damaged the Ukrainian economy and reminded them that their freedom from Moscow comes at a price - the threat of military action. He's also helped to prop up mini me Lukashenko who's been under pressure from protesters who believe that he rigged the 2020 election.

    He's de facto annexed Belarus while everyone was looking at Ukraine.
    That's actually a good point - and one that will give Putin some nice Brownie Points with the Greater Russian Nationalists.

    Could it be enough for the climb down? My guess is that it isn't, sadly.
    Surely Belarus was already all-but annexed.
    Pretty much. but each step will make the Greater Russian Nationalists feel a warmth in their hearts. Nothing like getting Kyiv, of course.
    Or Kiev even :)
    Putin is going to HAVE to invade, if only for the certainty of ever after being taunted as the Kiev Chicken.....
    Which tabloid is going to send the office junior chasing Putin around in a chicken suit… and how long would they last in the role?
    Watching John Oliver explain gleefully to his mostly American audience, that in Britian we actually send people dressed as chickens to follow politicians around for weeks on end, was very funny indeed.
    Do you have a link?

    I tried google but all I came up with a segment on the Hungarian chicken party candidate for president (which was pretty funny…)
    There’s an awful lot of John Oliver stuff involving chickens! From memory it was around the 2015 election.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,974
    Cold front cloudburst with me now in Huddersfield.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,642
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
    I'd argue Scott is one. Apparently plenty of people on Twitter and a couple of people on my FB as well.
  • Options

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    It's not complicated, he is a sociopath who is extremely competent at political tactics but extremely incompetent as at making the country better. Probably because he is interested in the former but not the latter.
  • Options
    LIVE: Storm Franklin at London Heathrow Airport
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-7TzJ1bO5w
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,531

    Vice President Kamala Harris, echoing President Joe Biden's comments Friday, tells CNN's @NatashaBertrand in Munich "We believe that Putin has made his decision, period," to invade Ukraine, adding "nothing's being held back" in sharing intelligence with allies.

    https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1495356066854547456

    *off topic, though great to have a TSE thread again

    Is it really all down to Putin making his mind up? If it was London or Washington and rest of war bunker said no, it wouldn’t matter what the leaders preference was? Why would it be different in Moscow? What I’m practically saying is, if Putin, and those agreeing with him were asked by the generals, what’s the clarity of the mission we can achieve and withdraw without it being open ended or creeping into something else, and Putin and his allies can’t convincingly define that, then surely it won’t happen?

    If at some point the Ukraine leadership want a face to face with Russian counterpart’s, what would the Ukrainians hope to get from that? They would use it just to emphasise how belligerent their position is, like how Liz Truss used her Moscow trip?

    These are two good questions for this latest Sunday in pre war build up?
    Although Igor the Incinerator (Putin’s likely successor if the worst happened to Putin this week) is no doubt on side with sabre rattling to get Donetsk up everyone’s agenda, and dialogue on it not kicked into long grass like any criminal investigation into Boris Johnson, I’m not convinced Igor is on side with invasion, because Surely there’s internal politics and factions on things within Moscow government too, and Igors already allowed unease of generals to seep like a message into world news?

    Why do I think Igor as successor? Is this not the same path which brought Putin into the job? What do we know about Igor? His take on pursuing Greater Russian Nationalism from behind his desk at GRU has been brazen, merciless and blood thirsty, like a dalek, he’s likely to be far worse than Putin to deal with especially if he’s been courting the military these past years. ☹️
    Ukrainians - "emphasise how belligerent their position is" ???? Since when is "Don't invaded my country" belligerent?

    Like Napoleon, Putin has to manage a coalition of power brokers behind him. He is riding a tiger, which can eat him at any time.

    A successor to Putin is not predictable. Putin himself was supposed to be a puppet figurehead, who got out of control.

    In Paraguay, General Rodríguez overthrew Stroessner. Rodríguez was corrupt and a fully paid up member of the goose-stepping military.

    He freed the political prisoners, unbanned the opposition, introduced real democracy, and stepped down after one term as elected (genuinely) president. Then died. People are still going WTF??
    *off topic because of world war three

    “ People are still going WTF?” I love that example because it is so optimistic.

    I’m not so convinced though Malmsy. These people that come out the CHECKA, KGB, you can’t reason with them. You can’t think, what puts pressure on me we will apply to them. I don’t want to come over all neecher but They are like Daleks, they have had pityand mercy removed. They can’t see the bigger picture like we can. Can’t say to them, your people like my people, they want security, they want a decent home, decent job, come in from work the kids are doing the homework, someone cutting carrots at window, decent infrastructure, decent education, decent hospitals - you can’t say this to them, they haven’t clue what you are babbling about, they have spent their life in a basement shooting intelligentsia like you in the head with a bullet, playing tinker tailor solider spy.

    Is it like you sez we know how Putin ticks he’s a greater Russian nationalist. Or is he less emotional than that, a Dalek that only cares bout legacy? Because on his watch his legacy of greater Russia has shrunk, the autonomous bits of old Soviet Union, led by leaders who are not conditioned by being checka their whole life, look westerwards for investment, commerce, wealth and comfort and security for their people.

    I do apologise for this gonzo, I have been polishing off the wine box. We normally go out Sunday afternoon, but I said I would do a beef bourguigiynionnon. So you got me all after noon. 😦
    Not all ex-KGB are arseholes. Remember that 98% of them are office drones, as well.

    "they want security, they want a decent home, decent job, come in from work the kids are doing the homework, someone cutting carrots at window, decent infrastructure, decent education, decent hospitals" - that is what drove the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the creation of Putin. Someone who can deliver....

    If Putinism stops delivering.... well the next chap might try real reform....
  • Options
    pigeon said:

    It will be interesting seeing what happens to pay rises during the next few months.

    Anecdotally people I know have been getting the biggest pay rises they've had for decades - though in some cases this might not match their cost of living increases.

    For those who live within their means and save plentifully each month a significant pay rise is perhaps nice psychologically.

    Some employers will be forced to give rises because they calculate it's the best way to stop skilled workers handing in their notices and going elsewhere; others will plead poverty and dig their heels in. I'm on record predicting a rise in strike action against stingy bosses later in the year, but stand to be corrected by events, of course.
    Its possible but employers who do not give pay rises will find it even harder to keep their workers when other employers do so.

    So expect more middle class demands for working class pay restrictions and whining of "the locals aren't willing to do the work" variety.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    A regency is slightly different.

    However, the Duke of Edinburgh was appointed a Counsellor of State in 1953 so prima facie there seems no reason why Camilla and Catherine couldn't be promoted.

    Apart from @TSE going ballistic, obviously.
    Prince Philip became a counsellor of state automatically on the Queen's accession, according to the provisions of the Regency Act 1937, thus:

    ...the Counsellors of State shall be the wife or husband of the Sovereign (if the Sovereign is married), and the four persons who, excluding any persons disqualified under this section, are next in the line of succession to the Crown...

    The four/five counsellors of state are therefore strictly defined in legislation - the consort (if there is one,) and the first four people in the line of succession who are qualified to act as regent. There's no provision in the current law specifically to remove any of these people from the position and/or appoint anyone else to it.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021
    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
  • Options

    Off topic 1: The crazy heavy rain has reached us.

    Off topic 2: Less than 2 months since testing positive (on Christmas Day) my wife has another dose of Covid. Mild cold-like symptoms so far. Bit of a bugger as she was due to visit a friend in Kent this week.

    It might be interesting to compare what level of protection against further infection the different variants of covid gave.

    I would have thought that having Omicron previously would give the best protection against further Omicron infection but perhaps that's not the case in reality.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,104
    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
  • Options
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
    I'd argue Scott is one. Apparently plenty of people on Twitter and a couple of people on my FB as well.
    Twitter is full of them. ‘FBPE’ is a giveaway. For some Boris Johnson will always be a focus of hatred over Brexit. He could be the greatest PM we ever had and these head cases would still find fault.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    A regency is slightly different.

    However, the Duke of Edinburgh was appointed a Counsellor of State in 1953 so prima facie there seems no reason why Camilla and Catherine couldn't be promoted.

    Apart from @TSE going ballistic, obviously.
    Prince Philip became a counsellor of state automatically on the Queen's accession, according to the provisions of the Regency Act 1937, thus:

    ...the Counsellors of State shall be the wife or husband of the Sovereign (if the Sovereign is married), and the four persons who, excluding any persons disqualified under this section, are next in the line of succession to the Crown...

    The four/five counsellors of state are therefore strictly defined in legislation - the consort (if there is one,) and the first four people in the line of succession who are qualified to act as regent. There's no provision in the current law specifically to remove any of these people from the position and/or appoint anyone else to it.
    Yes, sorry, I meant the Queen Mother, who was restored to the role of Counsellor of State. The provision about Phillip was for him to be Regent.
  • Options
    Friends in Leeds say it will be an achievement if the Dirty Leeds v. Manchester United match isn't suspended.

    Absolutely pissing it down.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    I agree with you, it is elected lawmaker Caroline Nokes who sees an issue.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Fuel tax can be cut and probably will, pensioners as long as they keep getting a rise in their pension and see their house continue to rise in value will not be too bothered, they have bus passes anyway and don't drive as often.

    If the B of E continues to increase interest rates that will help savers and control inflation too.

    If more people holiday in Britain this year because of expensive airfares abroad that will also help the UK tourist industry
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,308

    Friends in Leeds say it will be an achievement if the Dirty Leeds v. Manchester United match isn't suspended.

    Absolutely pissing it down.

    It's getting noticeably wetter here as well in the hour or so since I got back.
  • Options

    Off topic 1: The crazy heavy rain has reached us.

    Off topic 2: Less than 2 months since testing positive (on Christmas Day) my wife has another dose of Covid. Mild cold-like symptoms so far. Bit of a bugger as she was due to visit a friend in Kent this week.

    Unless the friend is very vulnerable, why not just visit the friend anyway?

    As you said, its a cold.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,257

    LIVE: Storm Franklin at London Heathrow Airport
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-7TzJ1bO5w

    😱 Our son is at LHR just now waiting to fly to Azerbaijan.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021

    Friends in Leeds say it will be an achievement if the Dirty Leeds v. Manchester United match isn't suspended.

    Absolutely pissing it down.

    Father in law and I are saying the same. The ground looks sodden.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,289
    I'm sure this has been spotted but the 'week ago' idea doesn't work because she was meeting people maskless 4 days ago. So it must be in the last two or three days.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/queen-health-monarch-mobility-issues-walking-stick-public-audience-1465471
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    edited February 2022

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    Indeed, then we have a month of national mourning, then prepare for King Charles' coronation in 6 months as he finally gets the role he has waited his life for at 73.

    Hopefully however Her Majesty has a few years left in her but she is 95, she has had as much protection as she can get being double vaccinated and boosted
  • Options

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    sHe woULd haVe DIed AnYwaY


  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,904

    Friends in Leeds say it will be an achievement if the Dirty Leeds v. Manchester United match isn't suspended.

    Absolutely pissing it down.

    Looking out of my front window here it's like being in a car wash.
    Days like this bring out the class warrior in me. Let's see those smug rich bastard footballers suffer.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,642

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    It's not complicated, he is a sociopath who is extremely competent at political tactics but extremely incompetent as at making the country better. Probably because he is interested in the former but not the latter.
    What clinical evidence do you have that he is a "Sociopath"?

    I mean, the guy's a joke, but if you say he is one, then I fear many politicians would fall under the same banner...
  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, not in Leeds but near. It's calmed down here, but had been hammering it down for hours on end.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,175

    Off topic 1: The crazy heavy rain has reached us.

    Off topic 2: Less than 2 months since testing positive (on Christmas Day) my wife has another dose of Covid. Mild cold-like symptoms so far. Bit of a bugger as she was due to visit a friend in Kent this week.

    It might be interesting to compare what level of protection against further infection the different variants of covid gave.

    I would have thought that having Omicron previously would give the best protection against further Omicron infection but perhaps that's not the case in reality.
    It could be that she had Delta last time and Omicron this.

    She went in to work on Tuesday so that was probably the source of infection.
  • Options

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    sHe woULd haVe DIed AnYwaY


    Of course she would. She's ninety five years old, she's not Methuselah.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021
    Two goals in a minute !! Classic soccer.
  • Options
    City losing to Spurs and now United currently failing to beat a team that belong in the Championship at best.

    Good weekend for Manchester. 😆
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    sHe woULd haVe DIed AnYwaY


    Of course she would. She's ninety five years old, she's not Methuselah.
    😲.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,021
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.
    Well the young seem to think the old have had everything handed them on a platter and have little concern for the hardships they have suffered so it’s cuts both ways. House price inflation in many parts of the country is negligible or only a recent phenomenon.

    The Tories need to expand home ownership as far as they can. Their future depends on it.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116

    Vice President Kamala Harris, echoing President Joe Biden's comments Friday, tells CNN's @NatashaBertrand in Munich "We believe that Putin has made his decision, period," to invade Ukraine, adding "nothing's being held back" in sharing intelligence with allies.

    https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1495356066854547456

    *off topic, though great to have a TSE thread again

    Is it really all down to Putin making his mind up? If it was London or Washington and rest of war bunker said no, it wouldn’t matter what the leaders preference was? Why would it be different in Moscow? What I’m practically saying is, if Putin, and those agreeing with him were asked by the generals, what’s the clarity of the mission we can achieve and withdraw without it being open ended or creeping into something else, and Putin and his allies can’t convincingly define that, then surely it won’t happen?

    If at some point the Ukraine leadership want a face to face with Russian counterpart’s, what would the Ukrainians hope to get from that? They would use it just to emphasise how belligerent their position is, like how Liz Truss used her Moscow trip?

    These are two good questions for this latest Sunday in pre war build up?
    Although Igor the Incinerator (Putin’s likely successor if the worst happened to Putin this week) is no doubt on side with sabre rattling to get Donetsk up everyone’s agenda, and dialogue on it not kicked into long grass like any criminal investigation into Boris Johnson, I’m not convinced Igor is on side with invasion, because Surely there’s internal politics and factions on things within Moscow government too, and Igors already allowed unease of generals to seep like a message into world news?

    Why do I think Igor as successor? Is this not the same path which brought Putin into the job? What do we know about Igor? His take on pursuing Greater Russian Nationalism from behind his desk at GRU has been brazen, merciless and blood thirsty, like a dalek, he’s likely to be far worse than Putin to deal with especially if he’s been courting the military these past years. ☹️
    Ukrainians - "emphasise how belligerent their position is" ???? Since when is "Don't invaded my country" belligerent?

    Like Napoleon, Putin has to manage a coalition of power brokers behind him. He is riding a tiger, which can eat him at any time.

    A successor to Putin is not predictable. Putin himself was supposed to be a puppet figurehead, who got out of control.

    In Paraguay, General Rodríguez overthrew Stroessner. Rodríguez was corrupt and a fully paid up member of the goose-stepping military.

    He freed the political prisoners, unbanned the opposition, introduced real democracy, and stepped down after one term as elected (genuinely) president. Then died. People are still going WTF??
    *off topic because of world war three

    “ People are still going WTF?” I love that example because it is so optimistic.

    I’m not so convinced though Malmsy. These people that come out the CHECKA, KGB, you can’t reason with them. You can’t think, what puts pressure on me we will apply to them. I don’t want to come over all neecher but They are like Daleks, they have had pityand mercy removed. They can’t see the bigger picture like we can. Can’t say to them, your people like my people, they want security, they want a decent home, decent job, come in from work the kids are doing the homework, someone cutting carrots at window, decent infrastructure, decent education, decent hospitals - you can’t say this to them, they haven’t clue what you are babbling about, they have spent their life in a basement shooting intelligentsia like you in the head with a bullet, playing tinker tailor solider spy.

    Is it like you sez we know how Putin ticks he’s a greater Russian nationalist. Or is he less emotional than that, a Dalek that only cares bout legacy? Because on his watch his legacy of greater Russia has shrunk, the autonomous bits of old Soviet Union, led by leaders who are not conditioned by being checka their whole life, look westerwards for investment, commerce, wealth and comfort and security for their people.

    I do apologise for this gonzo, I have been polishing off the wine box. We normally go out Sunday afternoon, but I said I would do a beef bourguigiynionnon. So you got me all after noon. 😦
    Not all ex-KGB are arseholes. Remember that 98% of them are office drones, as well.

    "they want security, they want a decent home, decent job, come in from work the kids are doing the homework, someone cutting carrots at window, decent infrastructure, decent education, decent hospitals" - that is what drove the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the creation of Putin. Someone who can deliver....

    If Putinism stops delivering.... well the next chap might try real reform....
    Or be a merciless dalek nationalist job. It can go two ways can’t it?
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408

    pigeon said:

    It will be interesting seeing what happens to pay rises during the next few months.

    Anecdotally people I know have been getting the biggest pay rises they've had for decades - though in some cases this might not match their cost of living increases.

    For those who live within their means and save plentifully each month a significant pay rise is perhaps nice psychologically.

    Some employers will be forced to give rises because they calculate it's the best way to stop skilled workers handing in their notices and going elsewhere; others will plead poverty and dig their heels in. I'm on record predicting a rise in strike action against stingy bosses later in the year, but stand to be corrected by events, of course.
    Its possible but employers who do not give pay rises will find it even harder to keep their workers when other employers do so.

    So expect more middle class demands for working class pay restrictions and whining of "the locals aren't willing to do the work" variety.
    We've reached the point where the middle class will be wanting and needing pay rises as much as the less well-off. Calls for restraint are now restricted to the outright wealthy, who we should all burn at the stake politely refuse to listen to.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,588
    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
    I'd argue Scott is one. Apparently plenty of people on Twitter and a couple of people on my FB as well.
    Twitter is full of them. ‘FBPE’ is a giveaway. For some Boris Johnson will always be a focus of hatred over Brexit. He could be the greatest PM we ever had and these head cases would still find fault.
    “Twitter is full of them”, though, is illustrative of how niche a world view this is (as are FPBE, and zero Covid, antivax, stop-the-war-except-if-it’s-Putin, and various other Twitter preoccupations). Twitter is like the kitchens of a grand Parisian restaurant where the bones of opinions are boiled down for hours until they become an intense, sticky reduction.

    A large swathe of the country thinks Boris is a tosser though.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,343

    they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon.

    He is malicious. There is no evidence to the contrary.

    He is an incompetent buffoon. There is no evidence to the contrary.

    The fact he is PM is due to his buffoonery, not his competence.
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    LIVE: Storm Franklin at London Heathrow Airport
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-7TzJ1bO5w

    😱 Our son is at LHR just now waiting to fly to Azerbaijan.
    It is mainly take-offs being shown so you can wave him off.
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    Taz said:

    Two goals in a minute !! Classic soccer.

    Compelling match.

    I worked in Leeds for six years and I know how much their fans having been waiting for matches like this.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,354

    tlg86 said:

    It’ll be interesting if we go into the next election with inflation as an issue. Will the parties promise to get it down and if so, how?

    Inflation is killer for any politician, because there isnt really any way of fixing it by just announcing some things in the budget. You can make it worse though.
    And that might be a way out for the government, if they can convince enough people that Labour would make it worse. Although quite hard for Johnson to project the air of a safe and steady hand on the tiller.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116

    City losing to Spurs and now United currently failing to beat a team that belong in the Championship at best.

    Good weekend for Manchester. 😆

    The whole of Lancashire and everything in it is naff Bart.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,366
    edited February 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    It's not complicated, he is a sociopath who is extremely competent at political tactics but extremely incompetent as at making the country better. Probably because he is interested in the former but not the latter.
    What clinical evidence do you have that he is a "Sociopath"?

    I mean, the guy's a joke, but if you say he is one, then I fear many politicians would fall under the same banner...
    Not a professional but here is a list of characteristic traits:

    https://www.health.com/condition/antisocial-personality-disorder/sociopath-traits

    Lack of empathy: Smirks at Starmer death threats
    Difficult Relationships: Not sure you need examples here but can provide many if you really want me to
    Manipulativeness: See above
    Deceitfulness: See above
    Callousness: Let the bodies pile high
    Hostility: Facial expressions at PMQ
    Irresponsibility: Guppy
    Impulsivity: Frequent affairs
    Risky Behaviour: See above

    Seems pretty clear cut to a layman.

    Estimates are 3-4% of males are sociopaths, and they will definitely be drawn to politics and suited to it. So yes many of the top politicians will be sociopaths but far from all or even the majority.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    edited February 2022
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.
    Well the young seem to think the old have had everything handed them on a platter and have little concern for the hardships they have suffered so it’s cuts both ways. House price inflation in many parts of the country is negligible or only a recent phenomenon.

    The Tories need to expand home ownership as far as they can. Their future depends on it.
    Entails confrontation with nimbies. Not happening.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,289
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.

    The Tories need to expand home ownership as far as they can. Their future depends on it.
    Would be a huge vote winner with an entire disenfranchised generation.

    Trouble is, it means massive building and that means in places where NIMBY tories don't want them. I don't see a solution without going onto brownfield AND greenfield sites.

    Too many people chasing too few goods is basic A level economics but it holds good for an island which is small and over-populated.

    The other solution is to turn Britain into such a shitshow that people won't want to live here anymore. Oh wait ...
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,823
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
    I'd argue Scott is one. Apparently plenty of people on Twitter and a couple of people on my FB as well.
    Twitter is full of them. ‘FBPE’ is a giveaway. For some Boris Johnson will always be a focus of hatred over Brexit. He could be the greatest PM we ever had and these head cases would still find fault.
    “Twitter is full of them”, though, is illustrative of how niche a world view this is (as are FPBE, and zero Covid, antivax, stop-the-war-except-if-it’s-Putin, and various other Twitter preoccupations). Twitter is like the kitchens of a grand Parisian restaurant where the bones of opinions are boiled down for hours until they become an intense, sticky reduction.

    A large swathe of the country thinks Boris is a tosser though.
    Well, yes. You don't have to be on Twitter to think of him as a "filthy piece of toerag" or whatever that old woman said in that voxpop video. His ratings are pretty indicative that the rippling-muscle fantasists like Barty Bobbins are the small minority.
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    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    Well. I remember the economic debate since 2011. Every lefty economist followed Paul Krugman into demands for high inflation, saying they wanted to bring down asset prices, encourage real wage growth through raising real demand, and informally default on debts. This was often linked to an anti-German narrative on Greek and Italian debt negotiations, and falsely-named "Keynesian" advocacy for permanent deficit spending in the manner of Gordon Brown. Now we have high inflation, we still have high asset prices, nominal wage growth can't keep up, demand is still suppressed, and just about their only success is that debt is spiralling upward. Those same folks do not seem to be happy with the outcomes nor do they have any new solution (considering tax-and-spend has always been in their preferred toolkit).

    The next couple of years are going to be painful, as the world recovers from the pandemic and life gets back to normal.

    UK is well placed to recover - the biggest issues at the moment are the supply chain slowdowns and high gas prices thanks to Russia, both of which are getting better. The inflation we are seeing is likely to be transient, and can be dealt with by reverse QE if it looks more persistent.
    This is probably your usual distance thing but our supply chain problems are getting worse, not better. Dover was shut on Friday because the backlog of trucks was causing absolute pandemonium.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.
    Well the young seem to think the old have had everything handed them on a platter and have little concern for the hardships they have suffered so it’s cuts both ways. House price inflation in many parts of the country is negligible or only a recent phenomenon.

    The Tories need to expand home ownership as far as they can. Their future depends on it.
    As long as most of the country are home owners it doesn't.

    North of Watford properties are much cheaper to buy anyway, even for those on average salaries, hence the Tories made almost all their gains in 2019 there.

    In London and the South inheritance and parental assistance will continue to help the young on average salaries there get on the property ladder.

    Building affordable homes in the brownbelt to buy (not buy to let) will help but building too much in the greenbelt will just turn off the Tory core vote and turn much of it LD.

    Getting young people to buy property is also not a guarantee of a Tory win, Blair won most of those with mortgages for example
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,343
    TimS said:

    A large swathe of the country thinks Boris is a tosser though.

    The public are irrelevant

    The issue is not whether he is a tosser, the issue is the people who can move him don't care
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,289
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    There are a lots of things to attack Boris for, but for the millionth time everbody is going to get COVID at some point. With Omicron its too infectious. Unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with people who have it and then its just a matter of probability.

    Given Charles and Camilla have it, and they have been spending time with her, I think its pretty likely she got it off them, so any recent changes to rules is totally mute. Omicron household spread is huge, so unless Boris is going to go back to banning families from ever meeting, its going to happen.

    The "derangement syndrome" thing was never that clever or funny, was it?
    I am no fan of Boris. I was one of the people on here who argued against him getting the top job, the discussions often getting heated with the Boris Fans. I didn't vote for him, and won't.

    Having said that, there is a BDS. People who are driven so mad by Boris that they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon. Sane people who lose all sense of reason whenever Boris is mentioned.
    Like who?
    I'd argue Scott is one. Apparently plenty of people on Twitter and a couple of people on my FB as well.
    Twitter is full of them. ‘FBPE’ is a giveaway. For some Boris Johnson will always be a focus of hatred over Brexit. He could be the greatest PM we ever had and these head cases would still find fault.
    FBPE.
    I've never bothered to find out what this stands for and I'm not going to now.
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,781
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Are we entering a point where we need to start thinking about a possible regency?

    The informal regency has been happening for a while, with Charles and William assuming more and more duties. The problem is the two black sheep who are the next adults in line.
    They're exiled from the Firm, and the succession is secure. The monarchy only starts to get into serious bother if William's whole family meets with an unfortunate accident, which is why I believe HMQ has forbidden him from flying them anywhere himself.
    It would be the Prince of Wales, plus the next four in line aged over 18 as counsellors of state.

    An elegant solution might be to cut the number to three and promote Camilla and Catherine to counsellors of state, should it be needed.
    In the event that The Queen cannot undertake her official duties as Sovereign on a temporary basis due to illness or absence abroad, two or more Counsellors of State are appointed by Letters Patent to act in Her Majesty's place.

    https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

    Two. Charles and William. Problem solved. Though, in any event, one imagines that the only likely scenarios in which the Queen will ultimately need to be replaced are her death (Charles succeeds instantaneously as King) or permanent incapacity (in which case a different set of four individuals to the counsellors of state make a declaration as such, and Charles automatically becomes regent.) So the Dukes of York and Sussex do seem to be entirely peripheral.

    FWIW, Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can't be removed as counsellors of state without recourse to primary legislation.
    A regency is slightly different.

    However, the Duke of Edinburgh was appointed a Counsellor of State in 1953 so prima facie there seems no reason why Camilla and Catherine couldn't be promoted.

    Apart from @TSE going ballistic, obviously.
    Prince Philip became a counsellor of state automatically on the Queen's accession, according to the provisions of the Regency Act 1937, thus:

    ...the Counsellors of State shall be the wife or husband of the Sovereign (if the Sovereign is married), and the four persons who, excluding any persons disqualified under this section, are next in the line of succession to the Crown...

    The four/five counsellors of state are therefore strictly defined in legislation - the consort (if there is one,) and the first four people in the line of succession who are qualified to act as regent. There's no provision in the current law specifically to remove any of these people from the position and/or appoint anyone else to it.
    Does that mean they would be Charles, William, Harry and Andrew? Or are some of them disqualified?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,518
    Scott_xP said:

    they assert almost godly powers of malice to him, whilst also saying he is an incompetent buffoon.

    He is malicious. There is no evidence to the contrary.

    He is an incompetent buffoon. There is no evidence to the contrary.

    The fact he is PM is due to his buffoonery, not his competence.
    His "buffoonery" was part of his clever campaign to get noticed, rather than taken "seriously". If you see it as a cynical exercise, it was very competent...

    His having the top job was down to Theresa May proving to be a buffoon at managing Brexit through Westminster.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,408
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Boris Derangement Syndrome lot don't do themselves any favours blaming Boris for the Queen getting COVID.

    You don't help yourself by being wilfully stupid. Nobody blamed BoZo. Here is a Tory MP


    Commons Committee chair Caroline Nokes tells T&G the news that the Queen has Covid-19 “makes it tricky” for the Government to end all restrictions this week, "but we have to strike a balance"
    @TimesRadio

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1495388007653949442

    You seem to spend a lot of time on Twitter. There are quite a few there blaming Boris.

    As for Nokes comment I don’t see why one very wealthy, privileged, individual catching Covid changes anything with regards to ending restrictions. It’s the right thing to do, other nations are opening up. So should we.
    There is utterly no reason whatsoever to postpone Covid changes.

    I hope the Queen is OK but she's mortal and her card will be marked one day, whether it be Covid or anything else, we have to trust the vaccines.

    If not now, post-three doses of vaccine, then when?
    Indeed, then we have a month of national mourning, then prepare for King Charles' coronation in 6 months as he finally gets the role he has waited his life for at 73.

    Hopefully however Her Majesty has a few years left in her but she is 95, she has had as much protection as she can get being double vaccinated and boosted
    Point of order: we get about six hours of national mourning, after which viewers start to ring up the BBC complaining about EastEnders being replaced by Nick Witchell.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,009
    edited February 2022
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inflation is a problem but Sunak's rebate for gas and electricity consumers in the autumn should help. Most of the swing voters who might go to Labour over the economy and NI rise have likely already gone, the 34% still voting Tory will generally do so regardless as they are conservative in the culture wars, ie almost all Leavers and anti Covid restrictions and sceptical of Wokeism.

    As for MPs pay, other public sector workers have had a rise so no reason they should be exempt

    I'm not wholly convinced - the elderly are also influenced by what their children and grandchildren tell them. If they start hearing real economic hardship within their families, it may yet count against Sunak and the Conservatives.

    Up to now, the cash savings accumulated by many middle class households during the virus has cushioned the blow of inflation but those reserves will be consumed by overpriced holidays and a return to full-blooded consumption which in turn which help fuel more inflation.

    My local Tesco's now at 143.9p for petrol - 4p off its all time high just before the 2008 financial crash when oil prices were much higher (but of course sterling hadn't had the post-Referendum devaluation).

    The other problem is a 2% inflation and 5% wage rises keeps everyone happy - it doesn't work so well the other way and savings rates remain miserably low. Try seeing what an ISA or Premium Bonds will get you these days.
    Well, the hardship of the young hasn't melted the hearts of the old yet, so we shall see.

    The key factor for the Tory core vote is continual house price inflation: the middle class elderly accumulate asset wealth, which they (and the heirs) expect to be passed down the generations as close to intact as possible. If the Tories want to make sure that all the olds turn out to bolster their support at the next election, they should go into it with a headline promise to scrap inheritance tax, backed up by more bribes for pensioners.
    The most electorally successful Tory policy this century was Osborne's raising the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million.

    Boris putting a social care costs limit of £86k over a lifetime will also go down well with the Tory core vote
This discussion has been closed.