Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Finland hasn't applied to join NATO, and spent the cold war (like Austria) being pretty close to the USSR.
Their closeness to the USSR was an interesting one - while they superficially claimed to be some version of neutral, everyone knew that invading Finland was a Day One move for the USSR, when/if the Big Mistake happened.
It was quite noticeable how fast that turned into practically-a-memeber-of-NATO at the end of the Cold War.
It’s not often I disagree with one of your knowledgable posts Malmsy, but
“ The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid. ”
That’s not a true comparison - we were just about to stand by and let Putin hang draw quarter and boil the head of Ukraines democracy, sovereignty, and right to political self determination weren’t we - allowing Russia to do this with military air superiority over the Ukraine nation.
Aside from military aid and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently.
If Americans had sent armoured divisions to Ukraine, this would have guaranteed war. Because at that point Putin would have been trapped by the Greater Russian Nationalists behind him.
Instead, we guaranteed that Russia would *regret* war. But could climb down.
Instead of "destroying the village to save it" we "guaranteed to fuck up anyone who pokes the village further"
So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.
“ So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.”
Yes that, but also all the everyday people don’t have to live in long time conflict zone or become refugee!
“ Aside from military aid ”. No air support. Russian have this Busty Brenda air support thing parked in Belarus NATO didn’t fancy tackling. 😕
“ and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently. “. Did you believe that spin? UK have had a chat with Jersey., but Was there consensus on that level of sanctions such as no to Nord 2 outside of Biden’s skull? The sanctions war would have hurt the British people too wouldn’t it, which UK government remained silent about so we should feel relieved today too? Maybe Putin pumps cheap gas into Europe as a loss leader for the diplomatic edge is gives him, splitting EU from agreeing to Washington sanction package, so this Ukraine crisis wasn’t spur of moment decision for Putin?
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Hate and bash the EU? Not really. Pointing out the difficulties, yes.
AFAICS the problem EuCo have is that they are Balkanised on this issue, as on several others (limits of the ECJ authority, aspects of Green policy, EU taking a stronger role in Defence policy wrt NATO are three). Fr/De currently think they can set the agenda on this, and they are isolated; I don't see that that will work without a lot of fudge, and I don't think that fudge will work with Russia.
Putin has shown how lightly he sits to Treaties - he signed, then reaffirmed, the Budapest Memorandum to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Then when he invaded Ukr, he declared "things have changed, and this no longer applies", and launched his invasion.
The issue in 1938 I refer to was that 'powers' were willing to carve up smaller countries as suited them. If EuCo reassurances to Moscow go into seeking to lay down what Ukraine can do in Ukraine, then imo they are over that line.
And no, I don't trust them, as for example the head of the German Navy declared that 'Crimea is lost'.
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
In the absence of global war, we are left to stare, uncomprehendingly, at the British weather
Foiled again. No Omicron lockdown, no flying saucers, no Labour civil war, no 'breaking!' that Covid came from a lab, no statue action to speak of, and now this. At the moment it's MY world and you're just living in it.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Hate and bash the EU? Not really. Pointing out the difficulties, yes.
AFAICS the problem EuCo have is that they are Balkanised on this issue, as on several others (limits of the ECJ authority, aspects of Green policy, EU taking a stronger role in Defence policy wrt NATO are three). Fr/De currently think they can set the agenda on this, and they are isolated; I don't see that that will work without a lot of fudge, and I don't think that fudge will work with Russia.
Putin has shown how lightly he sits to Treaties - he signed, then reaffirmed, the Budapest Memorandum to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Then when he invaded Ukr, he declared "things have changed, and this no longer applies", and launched his invasion.
The issue in 1938 I refer to was that 'powers' were willing to carve up smaller countries as suited them. If EuCo reassurances to Moscow go into seeking to lay down what Ukraine can do in Ukraine, then imo they are over that line.
And no, I don't trust them, as for example the head of the German Navy declared that 'Crimea is lost'.
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
In 1945 it wasn't a pretence - WWIII or Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. Those were the choices.
1914 was accidentally started by having too many "automatic" treaties/red lines. See the "Guns of August"...
Time for people to move on from partygate, it's been done to death.
It's unfortunate the Met is wasting so much money on this.
Laughable
I don’t know why Dale’s post appeared flagged. It was accurate and put more politely than many on this forum.
In Dales defence I’ll post “Boris sacked in dogminus 7 days.
Can Admins see who does the false flag’s and banish the naughty ones?
PS Gary, in my opinion its still rumbling in background like a volcano about to erupt wiping out all life in Boris Citadel. Whatever MET are paying for this, it’s cheap price for honesty and probity in government and rules of the land that treat everyone equally and fairly
Because Gary (CCHQ Bot?) keeps flagging me when I point out that his defence of his boss is laughable.
Time for people to move on from partygate, it's been done to death.
It's unfortunate the Met is wasting so much money on this.
Laughable
I don’t know why Dale’s post appeared flagged. It was accurate and put more politely than many on this forum.
In Dales defence I’ll post “Boris sacked in dogminus 7 days.
Can Admins see who does the false flag’s and banish the naughty ones?
PS Gary, in my opinion its still rumbling in background like a volcano about to erupt wiping out all life in Boris Citadel. Whatever MET are paying for this, it’s cheap price for honesty and probity in government and rules of the land that treat everyone equally and fairly
Because Gary (CCHQ Bot?) keeps flagging me when I point out that his defence of his boss is laughable.
Which in itself if laughable...
How do you know it is him and how do you know he’s a CCHQ bot ?
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Finland hasn't applied to join NATO, and spent the cold war (like Austria) being pretty close to the USSR.
Their closeness to the USSR was an interesting one - while they superficially claimed to be some version of neutral, everyone knew that invading Finland was a Day One move for the USSR, when/if the Big Mistake happened.
It was quite noticeable how fast that turned into practically-a-memeber-of-NATO at the end of the Cold War.
It’s not often I disagree with one of your knowledgable posts Malmsy, but
“ The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid. ”
That’s not a true comparison - we were just about to stand by and let Putin hang draw quarter and boil the head of Ukraines democracy, sovereignty, and right to political self determination weren’t we - allowing Russia to do this with military air superiority over the Ukraine nation.
Aside from military aid and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently.
If Americans had sent armoured divisions to Ukraine, this would have guaranteed war. Because at that point Putin would have been trapped by the Greater Russian Nationalists behind him.
Instead, we guaranteed that Russia would *regret* war. But could climb down.
Instead of "destroying the village to save it" we "guaranteed to fuck up anyone who pokes the village further"
So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.
“ So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.”
Yes that, but also all the everyday people don’t have to live in long time conflict zone or become refugee!
“ Aside from military aid ”. No air support. Russian have this Busty Brenda air support thing parked in Belarus NATO didn’t fancy tackling. 😕
“ and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently. “. Did you believe that spin? UK have had a chat with Jersey., but Was there consensus on that level of sanctions such as no to Nord 2 outside of Biden’s skull? The sanctions war would have hurt the British people too wouldn’t it, which UK government remained silent about so we should feel relieved today too? Maybe Putin pumps cheap gas into Europe as a loss leader for the diplomatic edge is gives him, splitting EU from agreeing to Washington sanction package, so this Ukraine crisis wasn’t spur of moment decision for Putin?
As to whether sanctions hurt the British people too, depends how much we confiscated off Russian billionaires to go towards reducing lecky bills....
And to counter Putin's hold over gas supplies, we should start building tidal power stations like there's no tomorrow. Putin may be powerful in hydrocarbons, but he can't hold back our tides.
We seem to have learned nothing, what an utterly distressing time it must be to be an elected MP.
Its far too easy to do this kind of thing. Pre internet/social media/email it would need a letter, physically posted. Now, anonymous posts on discussion sites, vpn obsured emails etc.
I'm not in the public eye, but sadly it seems its all too common for people who are to receive stuff like this. It doesn't mean that what Johnson did was ok - it wasn't, it was a distortion of the truth for political gain. But its also wrong to blame the actions of lunatics and mentally ill people, or just plain nasty bits of work, on politicians. I don't blame Angela Raynor for the death of David Amess, however inflammatory her words and beliefs are/were.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
I think you need to understand the Russian State Paranoia - the official one. Everyone in the Soviet State was taught that NATO was on the verge of launching a sneak attack on the USSR at any moment. That spies were everywhere.
This seeped into the structure of how they perceive the world. So on military maps, NATO countries are coloured as a single block.
On topic, Johnson being fined or not isn't the most important thing. The important thing is his lying to parliament, which under the UK's unwritten but supposedly real constitution is a termination event.
I wonder if Putin has inadvertently tied his own noose with his Ukraine madness?
One thing that’s really been forced to the fore-front and will be a stick that the UK is going to be increasingly beaten internationally for is the bad Russian money in London (and this will also shine on Switzerland, Frankfurt - especially a certain bank, and others)
If this has forced the UK gov to act and it causes big problems and inconveniences for certain Russians who Putin needs for support then they are going to be very unhappy with Putin for having forced action that is not in their interests.
Perhaps the result of sabre rattling by Putin will be that he gets deposed by the men with the money not by the sword…
You don’t think all the parties involved at the UK end of rehabilitating that Russian money aren’t gagging to get back to business as usual?
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Finland hasn't applied to join NATO, and spent the cold war (like Austria) being pretty close to the USSR.
Their closeness to the USSR was an interesting one - while they superficially claimed to be some version of neutral, everyone knew that invading Finland was a Day One move for the USSR, when/if the Big Mistake happened.
It was quite noticeable how fast that turned into practically-a-memeber-of-NATO at the end of the Cold War.
It’s not often I disagree with one of your knowledgable posts Malmsy, but
“ The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid. ”
That’s not a true comparison - we were just about to stand by and let Putin hang draw quarter and boil the head of Ukraines democracy, sovereignty, and right to political self determination weren’t we - allowing Russia to do this with military air superiority over the Ukraine nation.
Aside from military aid and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently.
If Americans had sent armoured divisions to Ukraine, this would have guaranteed war. Because at that point Putin would have been trapped by the Greater Russian Nationalists behind him.
Instead, we guaranteed that Russia would *regret* war. But could climb down.
Instead of "destroying the village to save it" we "guaranteed to fuck up anyone who pokes the village further"
So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.
“ So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.”
Yes that, but also all the everyday people don’t have to live in long time conflict zone or become refugee!
“ Aside from military aid ”. No air support. Russian have this Busty Brenda air support thing parked in Belarus NATO didn’t fancy tackling. 😕
“ and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently. “. Did you believe that spin? UK have had a chat with Jersey., but Was there consensus on that level of sanctions such as no to Nord 2 outside of Biden’s skull? The sanctions war would have hurt the British people too wouldn’t it, which UK government remained silent about so we should feel relieved today too? Maybe Putin pumps cheap gas into Europe as a loss leader for the diplomatic edge is gives him, splitting EU from agreeing to Washington sanction package, so this Ukraine crisis wasn’t spur of moment decision for Putin?
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
Sticks and carrots. Have the Americans commit to keep fracking, if the Europeans commit to keep that pipeline shut.
Qualifying winner on Friday gets the accolade now which is good. They should make it shorter and take tyre choice away, everyone has to run on the softest compound of the weekend or use a special ultra soft sprint tyre.
Time for people to move on from partygate, it's been done to death.
It's unfortunate the Met is wasting so much money on this.
Laughable
I don’t know why Dale’s post appeared flagged. It was accurate and put more politely than many on this forum.
In Dales defence I’ll post “Boris sacked in dogminus 7 days.
Can Admins see who does the false flag’s and banish the naughty ones?
PS Gary, in my opinion its still rumbling in background like a volcano about to erupt wiping out all life in Boris Citadel. Whatever MET are paying for this, it’s cheap price for honesty and probity in government and rules of the land that treat everyone equally and fairly
Because Gary (CCHQ Bot?) keeps flagging me when I point out that his defence of his boss is laughable.
Which in itself if laughable...
How do you know it is him and how do you know he’s a CCHQ bot ?
It's a badge of honour to be branded a CCHQ bot....
Was a great show though, lots of funny comments online about us fortysomethings showing our children that we know the words to all those old rap songs.
I saw something like the combined age of the performers was 237
Dr Dre (56) Mary J Blige (51) Snoop Dogg (50) Eminem (49) 50 Cent (46) Kendrick Lamar (34)
I make that 286, average of more than 47.
I swear Eminem still looks about 25.
I fear Mr Mathers has taken to the beard dye, never a good look.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Probably not. Arguably the EU should put some thought into the relationship it might want with a better behaved Russia. But this isn't about the EU. It's about Putin's view of that organisation and in particular his aversion to neighbouring countries signing up in some form to the EU way of doing things.
1. How would Scholz's DNA be useful to the Russians?
2. If it is useful, why can't the Russians simply pick up a hair or flake of skin from Scholz's end of the (previously sterilised) conference table after the meeting and analyse that?
I wonder if Putin has inadvertently tied his own noose with his Ukraine madness?
One thing that’s really been forced to the fore-front and will be a stick that the UK is going to be increasingly beaten internationally for is the bad Russian money in London (and this will also shine on Switzerland, Frankfurt - especially a certain bank, and others)
If this has forced the UK gov to act and it causes big problems and inconveniences for certain Russians who Putin needs for support then they are going to be very unhappy with Putin for having forced action that is not in their interests.
Perhaps the result of sabre rattling by Putin will be that he gets deposed by the men with the money not by the sword…
Well, maybe, but that would imply a rapprochement with the West to have sanctions lifted, which seems unlikely.
Putin cemented his initial grip on power by winning a war in Chechnya. Any new leader would want a similar demonstration of power.
On topic, Johnson being fined or not isn't the most important thing. The important thing is his lying to parliament, which under the UK's unwritten but supposedly real constitution is a termination event.
This is why I said a few weeks ago it was smart politics by Hodor Blackford to call Boris a liar and get thrown out of the House. The end result of this could well be that Boris survives despite very clearly lying, and the only punishment was doled out to the person who truthfully called him a liar. That taps into a rich vein of anger and distrust.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Probably not. Arguably the EU should put some thought into the relationship it might want with a better behaved Russia. But this isn't about the EU. It's about Putin's view of that organisation and in particular his aversion to neighbouring countries signing up in some form to the EU way of doing things.
De Gaulle argued for a Europe that was "From Atlantic to the Urals"....
Mind you, that was in the context of the EEC being a giant free(er) trade area.
Qualifying winner on Friday gets the accolade now which is good. They should make it shorter and take tyre choice away, everyone has to run on the softest compound of the weekend or use a special ultra soft sprint tyre.
Not giving the qualifying winner the qualifying award was more than a little silly. Two of the sprints last year were rubbish, and the other was only not because Lewis started at the back.
But commercially, they’re brilliant, with large increases in the audience across the weekend. TBH the surprise is that they haven’t gone for a load more of them.
Qualifying winner on Friday gets the accolade now which is good. They should make it shorter and take tyre choice away, everyone has to run on the softest compound of the weekend or use a special ultra soft sprint tyre.
Not giving the qualifying winner the qualifying award was more than a little silly. Two of the sprints last year were rubbish, and the other was only not because Lewis started at the back.
But commercially, they’re brilliant, with large increases in the audience across the weekend. TBH the surprise is that they haven’t gone for a load more of them.
The teams wanted more money than F1 was willing to offer. This is very much a compromise.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
I think you need to understand the Russian State Paranoia - the official one. Everyone in the Soviet State was taught that NATO was on the verge of launching a sneak attack on the USSR at any moment. That spies were everywhere.
This seeped into the structure of how they perceive the world. So on military maps, NATO countries are coloured as a single block.
I do understand that. In some ways NATO is a gift to that Russia. To be clear, I am not on Corbyn's side concerning NATO. It has a real role to play in collective security. I am talking about Russian attitudes to NATO that are not quite as simple as they seem.
1. How would Scholz's DNA be useful to the Russians?
2. If it is useful, why can't the Russians simply pick up a hair or flake of skin from Scholz's end of the (previously sterilised) conference table after the meeting and analyse that?
2 - size of sample. Magnifying a touch sample often fails. The kind of sample you wold get from a swab would be very easy to use.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Hate and bash the EU? Not really. Pointing out the difficulties, yes.
AFAICS the problem EuCo have is that they are Balkanised on this issue, as on several others (limits of the ECJ authority, aspects of Green policy, EU taking a stronger role in Defence policy wrt NATO are three). Fr/De currently think they can set the agenda on this, and they are isolated; I don't see that that will work without a lot of fudge, and I don't think that fudge will work with Russia.
Putin has shown how lightly he sits to Treaties - he signed, then reaffirmed, the Budapest Memorandum to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Then when he invaded Ukr, he declared "things have changed, and this no longer applies", and launched his invasion.
The issue in 1938 I refer to was that 'powers' were willing to carve up smaller countries as suited them. If EuCo reassurances to Moscow go into seeking to lay down what Ukraine can do in Ukraine, then imo they are over that line.
And no, I don't trust them, as for example the head of the German Navy declared that 'Crimea is lost'.
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
I think that is a misapprehension of what just happened.
Granted, we didn't rush a NATO brigade to Ukraine, as one gung ho Tory MP suggested, but there was a pretty coordinated western response in terms of sanctions, and large amounts of weapons were sent in a short space of time. Neither would have stopped a determined invasion, but they made such a thing considerably more costly. There's no pretence about not wanting WWIII; that is quite genuine.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Qualifying winner on Friday gets the accolade now which is good. They should make it shorter and take tyre choice away, everyone has to run on the softest compound of the weekend or use a special ultra soft sprint tyre.
Not giving the qualifying winner the qualifying award was more than a little silly. Two of the sprints last year were rubbish, and the other was only not because Lewis started at the back.
But commercially, they’re brilliant, with large increases in the audience across the weekend. TBH the surprise is that they haven’t gone for a load more of them.
The teams wanted more money than F1 was willing to offer. This is very much a compromise.
Yes, the teams wanted a budget cap raise and a separate damage budget, in exchange for more sprint races. Apparently a couple of the teams had quite unreasonable numbers in the heads, and there was a lot of negotiation behind the scenes. I did expect more of the damn things though.
1. How would Scholz's DNA be useful to the Russians?
2. If it is useful, why can't the Russians simply pick up a hair or flake of skin from Scholz's end of the (previously sterilised) conference table after the meeting and analyse that?
2 - size of sample. Magnifying a touch sample often fails. The kind of sample you wold get from a swab would be very easy to use.
I'll be honest, I thought the "there will be war on Wednesday" stuff coming over the airwaves was never going to happen.
There's a long term equilibrium calculus -
Ukraine doesn't join NATO, Russia won't invade.
I agree it was essentially theatre but not that it was mainly about NATO. If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia couldn't invade because America would have to engage. But America doesn't want to engage over Ukraine therefore they can't join NATO. So by threatening to invade Russia would have ensured that something which wouldn't happen will still not happen. Like a game of scissors stone paper without the paper option, ie programmed to finish where you start. Makes little sense imo. Also, America *would* defend militarily certain other countries which aren't in NATO. So why the massive deal about Ukraine and NATO in any case? This whole NATO angle looks like a bit of a red herring to me.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
If it met the membership tests, yes.
I think even if Putin was replaced by the opposition tomorrow, it would be a long time before Russia could demonstrate "the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union".
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
If it met the membership tests, yes.
I think even if Putin was replaced by the opposition tomorrow, it would be a long time before Russia could demonstrate "the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union".
It would take some persuading for a few of the Eastern European countries to let Russia in. That veto on membership is huge, and Russia, even a liberal and democratic Russia, would not want to face the humiliation of having to grovel hard at the feet of its tiny western neighbours to be allowed in. Of all the non-startery non-starters, Russian membership of the EU is the one least likely to ever even be talked about in a serious way.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Hate and bash the EU? Not really. Pointing out the difficulties, yes.
AFAICS the problem EuCo have is that they are Balkanised on this issue, as on several others (limits of the ECJ authority, aspects of Green policy, EU taking a stronger role in Defence policy wrt NATO are three). Fr/De currently think they can set the agenda on this, and they are isolated; I don't see that that will work without a lot of fudge, and I don't think that fudge will work with Russia.
Putin has shown how lightly he sits to Treaties - he signed, then reaffirmed, the Budapest Memorandum to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Then when he invaded Ukr, he declared "things have changed, and this no longer applies", and launched his invasion.
The issue in 1938 I refer to was that 'powers' were willing to carve up smaller countries as suited them. If EuCo reassurances to Moscow go into seeking to lay down what Ukraine can do in Ukraine, then imo they are over that line.
And no, I don't trust them, as for example the head of the German Navy declared that 'Crimea is lost'.
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
I don't think that is correct wrt Ukraine, as I haven't seen much backing down - though Western countries are responsible for not responding to the new Russia soon enough. Those close eg Finland, started a lot sooner.
Significant long-term military support has come from UK, US, Canada - going back to 2014. Not sure about, but UK/Canada have trained 30k troops between them. Plus there is the UK startegic partnership thing.
Kit for the navy is significant from UK, USA, France. That is more on a business basis.
And more widely from certain European countries in the last 6 months.
Longer term (ie since 1990s) Ukr have been in the associate programmes of both NATO and EU. EU institutionally mainly focused on building civil society aiui.
AFAIK the significant European contributors to Russia's military have been France / Germany to the tune of 2+ billion Euro, which was pulled in 2014.
As I see it the big project has been to help Ukr gradually become a Western style democracy, which is what Putin is really scared of as the Russian people might want one.
Time for people to move on from partygate, it's been done to death.
It's unfortunate the Met is wasting so much money on this.
Laughable
I don’t know why Dale’s post appeared flagged. It was accurate and put more politely than many on this forum.
In Dales defence I’ll post “Boris sacked in dogminus 7 days.
Can Admins see who does the false flag’s and banish the naughty ones?
PS Gary, in my opinion its still rumbling in background like a volcano about to erupt wiping out all life in Boris Citadel. Whatever MET are paying for this, it’s cheap price for honesty and probity in government and rules of the land that treat everyone equally and fairly
Because Gary (CCHQ Bot?) keeps flagging me when I point out that his defence of his boss is laughable.
Which in itself if laughable...
How do you know it is him and how do you know he’s a CCHQ bot ?
It's a badge of honour to be branded a CCHQ bot....
Ah, nice. I bet Gaz is chuffed.
I do think there is a bit of fatigue setting in over the parties story too so I think he’s got a point. No cash has come my way from CCHQ for that.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Why not?
Begs the question of what would become of the EU if Russia were able to join having got their political, economic and legal systems in order, but subsequently regressed a la Hungary and Poland, with a tripartite Hungary/Poland/Russia alliance within the EU to protect each other against EU action.
I think this is one of the fundamental structural problems of the EU - it was set up to be a one-way street without thought about how to prune membership if needed.
The implicit threat contained in the recognition of Donbas “republics” lies in the fact that the “republics” claim sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including parts controlled by Ukraine - Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk. It is a threat of war.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
I wonder if psychologically strong men also suffer from Trump's revulsion and fear of illness as a sign of personal weakness.
Certainly, it is in all strongmen's interest not to be seen as vulnerable (given how many enemies they'll have made along the way), and disease, particularly one as potentially severe as COVID, makes one vulnerable.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Would the EU let a liberal democratic Russia join?
Why not?
That's a bit like asking whether London Zoo would take on Kurt Zouma in the event the FA banned him
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
More to the point you don't trust most of your underlings, and what might they get up to if you are bedridden for the day?
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
I wonder if psychologically strong men also suffer from Trump's revulsion and fear of illness as a sign of personal weakness.
Certainly, it is in all strongmen's interest not to be seen as vulnerable (given how many enemies they'll have made along the way), and disease, particularly one as potentially severe as COVID, makes one vulnerable.
It was noted by the Ancient Greeks that Tyrants would dye their beards (and similar measures) to appear not to be ageing or weak. This was mocked at the time...
For context, the extent of a claim on Ukraine comprising: Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea including Sevastopol is proportionally equivalent in UK terms to a claim for Scotland, NI, Wales and NE England.
Or in purely English terms, the Eastern Counties and East Midlands.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
I wonder if psychologically strong men also suffer from Trump's revulsion and fear of illness as a sign of personal weakness.
Certainly, it is in all strongmen's interest not to be seen as vulnerable (given how many enemies they'll have made along the way), and disease, particularly one as potentially severe as COVID, makes one vulnerable.
It was noted by the Ancient Greeks that Tyrants would dye their beards (and similar measures) to appear not to be ageing or weak. This was mocked at the time...
Chinese leaders must get through a vat of hair dye every week
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
More to the point you don't trust most of your underlings, and what might they get up to if you are bedridden for the day?
Ah yes, could be some of that too. Like the fraudster accountant in the office who never takes a holiday.
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
I think that is a misapprehension of what just happened.
Granted, we didn't rush a NATO brigade to Ukraine, as one gung ho Tory MP suggested, but there was a pretty coordinated western response in terms of sanctions, and large amounts of weapons were sent in a short space of time. Neither would have stopped a determined invasion, but they made such a thing considerably more costly. There's no pretence about not wanting WWIII; that is quite genuine.
Yes, I think we've handled the military aid rather well - proportional and not rash, showing impressive collective resolve without recklessness.
On WW2, my understanding is that we were nowhere near liberating Eastern Europe first, and during a long war the first priority is in any case not racing to pip your allies to the post. Austria was a case where we moved in jointly, and in due course the Russians left them to it. Patton's idea to carry on the war in 1945 by fighting the Reds as well had virtually zero support anywhere.
The problem in 1938 was not recognising the main threat, and hoping Germany and Russia would just fight it out between them.
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin The implicit threat contained in the recognition of Donbas “republics” lies in the fact that the “republics” claim sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including parts controlled by Ukraine - Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk. It is a threat of war. https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1493556709209612292
Should anyone with a fixed penalty notice against their name be barred from becoming an MP and Prime Minister?
No, but if they are Ministers and deliberately mislead Parliament they MUST resign.
We should consider extreme measures to re-establish this principle in a way that would avoid being seen as a partisan attack.
I'd suggest a joint Bill of Attainder punishing Blair and Johnson for their lies to Parliament.
I fear that if we don't take some sort of decisive measure then it will become progressively easier for Ministers to mislead Parliament and not resign. And what hope of holding Ministers to account if they can lie without sanction?
And I keep comparing this Ukraine Crisis to 1945 (like your 1938 but much worse) where under the pretence we didn’t want world war 3 by fighting Russia, London and Washington allowed Stalin to take countries we could have liberated first. Hence the miserable Eastern Bloc was created.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
I think that is a misapprehension of what just happened.
Granted, we didn't rush a NATO brigade to Ukraine, as one gung ho Tory MP suggested, but there was a pretty coordinated western response in terms of sanctions, and large amounts of weapons were sent in a short space of time. Neither would have stopped a determined invasion, but they made such a thing considerably more costly. There's no pretence about not wanting WWIII; that is quite genuine.
Yes, I think we've handled the military aid rather well - proportional and not rash, showing impressive collective resolve without recklessness. ..
Assuming Putin doesn't change his mind again in the next week or so, of course.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
It may well be that the purchase was just very badly timed and the value has been affected by Covid, as so many office buildings have. Matters may well improve when they finish rebuilding Birmingham. (It's a wreck at the moment.)
Nice to see McCluskey getting it in the neck anyway.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
I think the loss side for Putin is not currently domestic, but geopolitical. He has, through opportunistic overplaying of his hand managed to create many of the things he fears - a more cohesive West, greater Western involvement in Ukraine, and a Ukraine ever more determined to distance itself from Russia and align itself with NATO and the EU.
If this war goes hot and Russia is either humiliated or bogged down in another Viet Nam/Afghanistan, then I think the domestic ledger also eventually goes deep into the red for him, even if at first it seems to boost him.
Should anyone with a fixed penalty notice against their name be barred from becoming an MP and Prime Minister?
No, but if they are Ministers and deliberately mislead Parliament they MUST resign.
Clearly they should, but if they just sit there, who enforces their resignation?
Since it's Ministerial Code, the PM presumably.
And we all know how that ends.
When the rule was first established the party whip system was much weaker, and so it would have been realistic to expect a vote of no confidence in the government to pass if a minister who misled the House did not resign.
If the House does not wish to be lied to then it will need to find a cross-party means of enforcing the rule.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what we both agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
I think the loss side for Putin is not currently domestic, but geopolitical. He has, through opportunistic overplaying of his hand managed to create many of the things he fears - a more cohesive West, greater Western involvement in Ukraine, and a Ukraine ever more determined to distance itself from Russia and align itself with NATO and the EU.
If this war goes hot and Russia is either humiliated or bogged down in another Viet Nam/Afghanistan, then I think the domestic ledger also eventually goes deep into the red for him, even if at first it seems to boost him.
Yes, whatever else happens, NATO looks far stronger and more cohesive than it did a few weeks ago.
Trump's NATO policy is also looking a bit flaky, and his cosying up to Putin which looked dangerous at the time now merely looks embarrassing.
Should anyone with a fixed penalty notice against their name be barred from becoming an MP and Prime Minister?
No, but if they are Ministers and deliberately mislead Parliament they MUST resign.
We should consider extreme measures to re-establish this principle in a way that would avoid being seen as a partisan attack.
I'd suggest a joint Bill of Attainder punishing Blair and Johnson for their lies to Parliament.
I fear that if we don't take some sort of decisive measure then it will become progressively easier for Ministers to mislead Parliament and not resign. And what hope of holding Ministers to account if they can lie without sanction?
I agree that decisive measure is needed. This is why what Gary and the other CCHQ posters say is so dangerous. They aren't so much defending their boss as undermining the entire political system.
I don't see any easy solution though. It is a simple demonstrable fact that the PM has lied and lied to the house and then lied and lied to deny that he lied and lied. The House has straightforward rules to enforce the rules with the minor problem that the person who broke the rules continues to deny it and the ultimate arbiter of the rules is the person who has broken them.
Ultimately this is a battle between the executive and the legislature. The Treasury bench treats the house in open contempt and gets pulled up by the Speaker but he always stops short of sanction. Any sanction would be branded as hyper-partisan as you say because of the cadre of Tory MPs who like their boss have no personal standards or morality or grace or decency.
Its right and wrong boys and girls, not party politics. Once lies and corruption and malfeasance and disregard for the law embed themselves everyone loses.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll · 24mPutin seems to say he won’t confirm vote: “I’ve just been informed (sic) by my administration. Deputies follow public opinion. It’s clear overwhelming majority sympathise with Donbass citizens. But need to resolve the problem that Donbass, but we need to do it via Minsk”
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
I just think Putin is paranoid about getting Covid.
That's what I hear, yes. Quite common for these 'Strongmen' types to be terrified of germs. I think what it might be is that having got yourself to a position in life with a whole country to basically play with, you become highly risk averse personally, because (i) you are having a ball and are desperate to prolong it to the max and (ii) you start to believe your own myth about being a person of immense importance and crucial to the nation, thus must do everything in your power to avoid illness and death.
I wonder if psychologically strong men also suffer from Trump's revulsion and fear of illness as a sign of personal weakness.
Certainly, it is in all strongmen's interest not to be seen as vulnerable (given how many enemies they'll have made along the way), and disease, particularly one as potentially severe as COVID, makes one vulnerable.
It was noted by the Ancient Greeks that Tyrants would dye their beards (and similar measures) to appear not to be ageing or weak. This was mocked at the time...
Chinese leaders must get through a vat of hair dye every week
Visiting Turkmenistan in the the 90's, every building was obliged to have a picture of the quietly mad glorious leader of the people, the Turkmenbashi, Saparmurat Niyazov. Some of these images were ex-Soviet era: grey hair, death pallor, taken after a bout of heavy drinking. However, the more recent ones showed a head of black hair, liberal application of foundation and the slightly startled smile that comes with the plastic surgeon's knife.
Word was, he'd had heart surgery and was, miraculously, a man renewed....
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds rather like the 'great replacement' type sentiment you hear in certain places, or the islamic extremism you hear in certain other places. All this Clash of Cultures stuff. So ridiculous. But disturbingly seductive to many.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
Remember bond films had KGB in big offices, and the Brit big wigs in little cosy ones. It might just be a cultural thing than supplication technique. Lunchtime he probably sits on his own in there eating a burger!
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Finland hasn't applied to join NATO, and spent the cold war (like Austria) being pretty close to the USSR.
Their closeness to the USSR was an interesting one - while they superficially claimed to be some version of neutral, everyone knew that invading Finland was a Day One move for the USSR, when/if the Big Mistake happened.
It was quite noticeable how fast that turned into practically-a-memeber-of-NATO at the end of the Cold War.
It’s not often I disagree with one of your knowledgable posts Malmsy, but
“ The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid. ”
That’s not a true comparison - we were just about to stand by and let Putin hang draw quarter and boil the head of Ukraines democracy, sovereignty, and right to political self determination weren’t we - allowing Russia to do this with military air superiority over the Ukraine nation.
Aside from military aid and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently.
If Americans had sent armoured divisions to Ukraine, this would have guaranteed war. Because at that point Putin would have been trapped by the Greater Russian Nationalists behind him.
Instead, we guaranteed that Russia would *regret* war. But could climb down.
Instead of "destroying the village to save it" we "guaranteed to fuck up anyone who pokes the village further"
So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.
“ So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.”
Yes that, but also all the everyday people don’t have to live in long time conflict zone or become refugee!
“ Aside from military aid ”. No air support. Russian have this Busty Brenda air support thing parked in Belarus NATO didn’t fancy tackling. 😕
“ and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently. “. Did you believe that spin? UK have had a chat with Jersey., but Was there consensus on that level of sanctions such as no to Nord 2 outside of Biden’s skull? The sanctions war would have hurt the British people too wouldn’t it, which UK government remained silent about so we should feel relieved today too? Maybe Putin pumps cheap gas into Europe as a loss leader for the diplomatic edge is gives him, splitting EU from agreeing to Washington sanction package, so this Ukraine crisis wasn’t spur of moment decision for Putin?
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
It’s not often I think you are missing something important Malmsy, but how about this: think of what is coming down the 2 pipes as being heroin. Biden said to the EU junkies, you are not going back to “the supplier” for more. Instead of agreeing with Biden, Our continental cousins thought Biden an impractical idiot. And yesterday Boris repeated to Europe what Biden had told them.
In my Ukraine Crisis analysis big post Sunday night I made comparison of what Putin is doing here with Lady Thatcher and the Miners strike in 1980’s. Lady Thatcher won the strike, but a big part of winning the conflict was the planning before hand building up the coal stocks and other ways not to be dependent on miners digging coal - so if miners decided to strike they would be starved back to work.
I think these two allegory work, because in the diplomatic battle for desired outcomes here, such as agreement on sanctions, Washington prefers those pipelines turned off, Moscow happy to have them on.
Do you see what I am trying to say? Am I wrong.
That’s a really beautiful still image btw. Look at that Putin and weep 😉
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds rather like the 'great replacement' type sentiment you hear in certain places, or the islamic extremism you hear in certain other places. All this Clash of Cultures stuff. So ridiculous. But disturbingly seductive to many.
On the Great Replacement theme I can highly recommend the Louis Theroux doc on iPlayer where he meets with young alt right guys in the US. Fcking terrifying really how much reach their crazy ideas have.
So racist even the most un-woke like I probably am will be pretty gobsmacked.
There is a guy called Nick Fuentes who is seriously a young Hitler. The most bonkers thing is that he’s banging on about racial purity and that the US is English and Christian blah blah blah and you want Theroux to ask him “ok so you are of Spanish/Italian immigrant stock - are you ‘lesser’ than the WASPS you hold as the untermensch?” And secondly, when he’s banging on about no immigrants to the US does he not get that he and all his followers who aren’t Native American are immigrants who’ve ruined the country for original settlers!
I also don’t get their beef with Jews. But like I said it’s actually really worrying what’s been unleashed by social media combined with Trump - at the end I just thought “Trump seriously has a lot to answer for” it really rammed home the divisions he’s unleashed.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Correction, LP, but Stalin definitely did expect the Nazis to attack. He just misjudged the timing.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
I think the loss side for Putin is not currently domestic, but geopolitical. He has, through opportunistic overplaying of his hand managed to create many of the things he fears - a more cohesive West, greater Western involvement in Ukraine, and a Ukraine ever more determined to distance itself from Russia and align itself with NATO and the EU.
If this war goes hot and Russia is either humiliated or bogged down in another Viet Nam/Afghanistan, then I think the domestic ledger also eventually goes deep into the red for him, even if at first it seems to boost him.
I'll be shocked if it goes hot for that very reason - they'd be in a quagmire. On the wins and losses (for Putin) it'll be hard to measure, I guess, but the main thing imo is that whatever he gets (which will be something) is of less value than what it's cost. Since this means aggression has not paid. The opposite would mean it has. Eg it'd be disappointing if we now *don't* confiscate dirty Russian assets held over here.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds a bit like the Brexit mindset... 😉
There is nothing really wrong with localism though, it’s a perfectly natural human instinct?
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds a bit like the Brexit mindset... 😉
You're a tougher nut than me - I decided to let him off that.
Should anyone with a fixed penalty notice against their name be barred from becoming an MP and Prime Minister?
No, but if they are Ministers and deliberately mislead Parliament they MUST resign.
We should consider extreme measures to re-establish this principle in a way that would avoid being seen as a partisan attack.
I'd suggest a joint Bill of Attainder punishing Blair and Johnson for their lies to Parliament.
I fear that if we don't take some sort of decisive measure then it will become progressively easier for Ministers to mislead Parliament and not resign. And what hope of holding Ministers to account if they can lie without sanction?
Can Blair be shown to have lied to the HoC in the way that Johnson clearly can? If so, when? Genuine question.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Its certainly true that the US/UK delayed launching a second front in Europe until 1944, but in no way did they leave Russia fighting all alone. For a start Russia was given tremendous amounts of material for fighting the war - not least thousands of trucks.
In fact it seems the contribution was vast - 400,000 jeeps & trucks 14,000 airplanes 8,000 tractors 13,000 tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of army boots 107,000 tons of cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 4.5 million tons of food
In addition Harris maintained a second front in the air against Germany. He never managed to win a war from the air alone, but he also never got his 4000 Lancasters (his desired 'full' roster). The bombing campaign kept troops and guns at home in Germany and not on the Eastern Front. The same is true of fighter aircraft.
In effect the Western Allies spent cash and Russian lives to win the war. I sometimes think that the true carnage seen in the Eastern Front is glossed over in the west. Our butchers bill for the whole second world war is only 450,000 (forces and civilian together). The Russians may have lost 20,000,000 people.
The word you have used after whoops should become a dictionary definition for outrageous profligacy with other people's money. Respect!
However on a few occasions today you have likened Johnson's potential FPN with a traffic violation, and you have missed the mark. On a basic point of morality Johnson instructed us to behave ourselves during Covid, he and his chums on the other hand disregarded his/ their own advice. So it is different. He should resign for taking the voters of the UK for mugs.
There is a more important precedent however. If he gets issued with an FPN it means he mislead Parliament, that is a resigning offence.
Poor dome head Scholz head must be freezing 🥶 has he not been paying any attention to how to do the big Kremlin photo op!
The thing to look for is where he sits. Everyone else has been the length of a cricket pitch away from Putin at the other end of that huge table. If this is the case here too we can probably conclude the final diplomatic push by Germany has failed and it's war. But - and let's hope this is what we do see - if the two men sit cheek by jowl, all cosy, at one end of the table, maybe even with Putin's arm draped casually around the back of Scholz's chair, then it could be that a compromise has been reached.
The problem with that post Kin, he appears to use even longer tables with his own cabinet?
Ah now that is true. Bizarre really. Tbh, for all the geopolitics that is rightly chewed over, I wonder - as Dura Ace does - how much of what he wanted from all this was on the personal level, ie about feeding Big Important Man syndrome. In which case having sundry Western leaders jetting over to Moscow and sitting there in supplication at that huge long table has probably done the trick. It's a Win.
Remember bond films had KGB in big offices, and the Brit big wigs in little cosy ones. It might just be a cultural thing than supplication technique. Lunchtime he probably sits on his own in there eating a burger!
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Finland hasn't applied to join NATO, and spent the cold war (like Austria) being pretty close to the USSR.
Their closeness to the USSR was an interesting one - while they superficially claimed to be some version of neutral, everyone knew that invading Finland was a Day One move for the USSR, when/if the Big Mistake happened.
It was quite noticeable how fast that turned into practically-a-memeber-of-NATO at the end of the Cold War.
It’s not often I disagree with one of your knowledgable posts Malmsy, but
“ The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid. ”
That’s not a true comparison - we were just about to stand by and let Putin hang draw quarter and boil the head of Ukraines democracy, sovereignty, and right to political self determination weren’t we - allowing Russia to do this with military air superiority over the Ukraine nation.
Aside from military aid and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently.
If Americans had sent armoured divisions to Ukraine, this would have guaranteed war. Because at that point Putin would have been trapped by the Greater Russian Nationalists behind him.
Instead, we guaranteed that Russia would *regret* war. But could climb down.
Instead of "destroying the village to save it" we "guaranteed to fuck up anyone who pokes the village further"
So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.
“ So, hopefully, the Russian soldiers go home. Alive, and with all their limbs. And the Ukrainian soldiers can as well.”
Yes that, but also all the everyday people don’t have to live in long time conflict zone or become refugee!
“ Aside from military aid ”. No air support. Russian have this Busty Brenda air support thing parked in Belarus NATO didn’t fancy tackling. 😕
“ and sanctions that would seriously stuff up the Russia economy (more than it is in a mess now). Things like cutting off Nord Stream 2 - permanently. “. Did you believe that spin? UK have had a chat with Jersey., but Was there consensus on that level of sanctions such as no to Nord 2 outside of Biden’s skull? The sanctions war would have hurt the British people too wouldn’t it, which UK government remained silent about so we should feel relieved today too? Maybe Putin pumps cheap gas into Europe as a loss leader for the diplomatic edge is gives him, splitting EU from agreeing to Washington sanction package, so this Ukraine crisis wasn’t spur of moment decision for Putin?
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
It’s not often I think you are missing something important Malmsy, but how about this: think of what is coming down the 2 pipes as being heroin. Biden said to the EU junkies, you are not going back to “the supplier” for more. Instead of agreeing with Biden, Our continental cousins thought Biden an impractical idiot. And yesterday Boris repeated to Europe what Biden had told them.
In my Ukraine Crisis analysis big post Sunday night I made comparison of what Putin is doing here with Lady Thatcher and the Miners strike in 1980’s. Lady Thatcher won the strike, but a big part of winning the conflict was the planning before hand building up the coal stocks and other ways not to be dependent on miners digging coal - so if miners decided to strike they would be starved back to work.
I think these two allegory work, because in the diplomatic battle for desired outcomes here, such as agreement on sanctions, Washington prefers those pipelines turned off, Moscow happy to have them on.
Do you see what I am trying to say? Am I wrong.
That’s a really beautiful still image btw. Look at that Putin and weep 😉
The issue of the pipelines is now more controversial than it was, in Germany, for example. Many people who would have waved it through on the grounds of cheap gas are seeing it very differently.
My friend who votes SDP, there, for example, who now refers to Gerhard Schröder in terms of being Putins puppet in a way that will get me banned if I say it literally.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
Ok, 'know thine enemy' and it seems you do. But I read Putin and his gang as being more concerned with stealing huge sums of money from the Russian people than they are with cultural purity or expanding borders. Or more accurately that all of that is strictly second fiddle and enabling of the first fiddle.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
AIUI, the real genius of Putin's annexation of Crimea was to preclude Ukraine from NATO membership (because states involved in border disputes are not eligible for application). The occupation in effect put Putin in charge of Ukraine's NATO eligibility.
So, the real 'war' Putin is engaged in with NATO is not one of land or tanks, but of ideas and influence. In the market of freedom of thought, he is losing that battle too. Hence his need to be opportunistic to achieve his ends through more nefarious means.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Its certainly true that the US/UK delayed launching a second front in Europe until 1944, but in no way did they leave Russia fighting all alone. For a start Russia was given tremendous amounts of material for fighting the war - not least thousands of trucks.
In fact it seems the contribution was vast - 400,000 jeeps & trucks 14,000 airplanes 8,000 tractors 13,000 tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of army boots 107,000 tons of cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 4.5 million tons of food
In addition Harris maintained a second front in the air against Germany. He never managed to win a war from the air alone, but he also never got his 4000 Lancasters (his desired 'full' roster). The bombing campaign kept troops and guns at home in Germany and not on the Eastern Front. The same is true of fighter aircraft.
In effect the Western Allies spent cash and Russian lives to win the war. I sometimes think that the true carnage seen in the Eastern Front is glossed over in the west. Our butchers bill for the whole second world war is only 450,000 (forces and civilian together). The Russians may have lost 20,000,000 people.
An important element that is missed in the material sent to Russia, is that a lot of it was stuff the Russians simply didn't have. High octane aviation fuel, for example. Mass produced, high reliability radios for aircraft and tanks, for another.
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
It’s not often I think you are missing something important Malmsy, but how about this: think of what is coming down the 2 pipes as being heroin. Biden said to the EU junkies, you are not going back to “the supplier” for more. Instead of agreeing with Biden, Our continental cousins thought Biden an impractical idiot. And yesterday Boris repeated to Europe what Biden had told them.
In my Ukraine Crisis analysis big post Sunday night I made comparison of what Putin is doing here with Lady Thatcher and the Miners strike in 1980’s. Lady Thatcher won the strike, but a big part of winning the conflict was the planning before hand building up the coal stocks and other ways not to be dependent on miners digging coal - so if miners decided to strike they would be starved back to work.
I think these two allegory work, because in the diplomatic battle for desired outcomes here, such as agreement on sanctions, Washington prefers those pipelines turned off, Moscow happy to have them on.
Do you see what I am trying to say? Am I wrong.
That’s a really beautiful still image btw. Look at that Putin and weep 😉
From what I can tell, Europe including Germany can just about manage without Russian gas. It is certainly going to cost, but as things stand Europe is paying twice as much for its energy this year compared with last. Those high fossil fuel prices will drive the transition to green faster than anything.
Governments with electorates fear high fuel prices but if forced they will work out other means. Russia is on a losing path in the medium term with piped gas. In the short term they are in clover due to the high prices even if they ship less, but this will accelerate their decline.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds rather like the 'great replacement' type sentiment you hear in certain places, or the islamic extremism you hear in certain other places. All this Clash of Cultures stuff. So ridiculous. But disturbingly seductive to many.
On the Great Replacement theme I can highly recommend the Louis Theroux doc on iPlayer where he meets with young alt right guys in the US. Fcking terrifying really how much reach their crazy ideas have.
So racist even the most un-woke like I probably am will be pretty gobsmacked.
There is a guy called Nick Fuentes who is seriously a young Hitler. The most bonkers thing is that he’s banging on about racial purity and that the US is English and Christian blah blah blah and you want Theroux to ask him “ok so you are of Spanish/Italian immigrant stock - are you ‘lesser’ than the WASPS you hold as the untermensch?” And secondly, when he’s banging on about no immigrants to the US does he not get that he and all his followers who aren’t Native American are immigrants who’ve ruined the country for original settlers!
I also don’t get their beef with Jews. But like I said it’s actually really worrying what’s been unleashed by social media combined with Trump - at the end I just thought “Trump seriously has a lot to answer for” it really rammed home the divisions he’s unleashed.
Well said.
(Be careful @Leon doesn't add you to his 'Wokelist' though! 😉)
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Its certainly true that the US/UK delayed launching a second front in Europe until 1944, but in no way did they leave Russia fighting all alone. For a start Russia was given tremendous amounts of material for fighting the war - not least thousands of trucks.
In fact it seems the contribution was vast - 400,000 jeeps & trucks 14,000 airplanes 8,000 tractors 13,000 tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of army boots 107,000 tons of cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 4.5 million tons of food
In addition Harris maintained a second front in the air against Germany. He never managed to win a war from the air alone, but he also never got his 4000 Lancasters (his desired 'full' roster). The bombing campaign kept troops and guns at home in Germany and not on the Eastern Front. The same is true of fighter aircraft.
In effect the Western Allies spent cash and Russian lives to win the war. I sometimes think that the true carnage seen in the Eastern Front is glossed over in the west. Our butchers bill for the whole second world war is only 450,000 (forces and civilian together). The Russians may have lost 20,000,000 people.
An important element that is missed in the material sent to Russia, is that a lot of it was stuff the Russians simply didn't have. High octane aviation fuel, for example. Mass produced, high reliability radios for aircraft and tanks, for another.
And the human cost to the Western allies of getting all that stuff to Russia. The Atlantic convoys were no picnic.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
Strangely, I don't think Russia is bothered by NATO. NATO exists to oppose Russia. It makes Russia important, which is what Putin cares about. Particularly as NATO won't actually do anything directly against Russia.
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
Having a country in what Putin and many other Russians regard as "Greater Russia" in which democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression and free press, etc,, prevail would be bitter gall and wormwood to the Kremlin. Russians would soon draw their own conclusions and wonder why they are stuck with a repressive kleptocracy. I think this explains the thinking a lot. Basically self-preservation. Probably also explains Chinese approach to Hong Kong.
Yes, this is what makes sense to me. It's not about Ukraine NATO membership (as such) it's about their membership of the club of free and prosperous democracies. Therefore the main overall aim of the Putin muscle flexing was to set back their progress towards this. With a side benefit of Russia (him) centre stage for lots of talks and diplomacy, reminding the West of its (his) potent presence, and also maybe playing well at home. So that would be a win, although it doesn't mean a loss for the US/EU since it looks like they played it well. So far anyway. I guess this is all a bit premature.
In Greater Russian Nationalism, the West/Europe has a non-Russian and therefore BAD culture. Being assimilated into European culture would be The End OF Russia to such a view point.
Sounds rather like the 'great replacement' type sentiment you hear in certain places, or the islamic extremism you hear in certain other places. All this Clash of Cultures stuff. So ridiculous. But disturbingly seductive to many.
On the Great Replacement theme I can highly recommend the Louis Theroux doc on iPlayer where he meets with young alt right guys in the US. Fcking terrifying really how much reach their crazy ideas have.
So racist even the most un-woke like I probably am will be pretty gobsmacked.
There is a guy called Nick Fuentes who is seriously a young Hitler. The most bonkers thing is that he’s banging on about racial purity and that the US is English and Christian blah blah blah and you want Theroux to ask him “ok so you are of Spanish/Italian immigrant stock - are you ‘lesser’ than the WASPS you hold as the untermensch?” And secondly, when he’s banging on about no immigrants to the US does he not get that he and all his followers who aren’t Native American are immigrants who’ve ruined the country for original settlers!
I also don’t get their beef with Jews. But like I said it’s actually really worrying what’s been unleashed by social media combined with Trump - at the end I just thought “Trump seriously has a lot to answer for” it really rammed home the divisions he’s unleashed.
Yes, thanks, I'll be watching that. Seriously crazy. I'm also not keen on its milder 'with table manners' cousin as manifested in various guises over here - eg the 'Islam and the West' don't mix brigade.
Someone posted this on site a couple of days ago “Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come. I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.”
If the EU start to say things about considering Russia’s security concerns in all this negotiating, Russia dismantles its build up with a big 😝 in direction of Washington, then not to underestimate what a Gas pipeline or two can actually win you?
So with war over and negotiations that consider Russian security in all this being given a chance, does the media narrative shift back now to vaccination status of tennis players and the other big Moscow story - Boris Moscow?
Someone on PB has started a countdown to Big Dog’s neutering and it stands today at just Snip minus 7 days 😲
I think there is no agreement as to what the Minsk protocol actually means.
The current Russian Government position is that they are not a party to Minsk. Or, I think, to Minsk II.
And what they want is a further move to give them control over what happens in other sovereign countries, whilst denying that to others in their own country.
If EuCo starts making noises as you suggest, then it will encourage Russia to try the same in Poland and the Baltics and Finland, and imo put themselves in the same place as France and the UK in 1938.
Your entitled to your view. For some “negotiations that also consider Russian security concerns in all this” is yet another reason to hate and bash the EU.
Ukraine position is to have both NATO membership AND to retake parts of its own sovereign territory held by the Russians. Do you support the UK and Washington fast tracking Ukraine NATO membership? In your opinion why don’t they have it yet? Can they have it by the end of the year? Up until then “standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation” is just hollow words or even lies isn’t it?
They haven't fast tracked it. No-one in NATO is really talking about Ukraine joining. It is a permanent aspiration much like Turkey joining the EU.
This is for the same reason that Finland isn't a member - because it would be seen as too much of a provocation to Russia.
The "standing shoulder to shoulder with democratic sovereign nation" is not a lie, because it is possible to stand shoulder to shoulder with a nation without them joining NATO. Neither Sweden or Finland are in NATO - but no-one doubts that if they were attacked, that NATO would come to their aid.
What Putin has achieved with his build up etc is that Ukraine is now moved up the ranks of Friends Of NATO. Not quote to the level of Finland, which is so nearly in NATO that if someone sneezes.... But massively higher than it was.
Surely a big reason the US don't want Ukraine in NATO is they would then have to defend them militarily from a Russian attack - and as we see they are not prepared to do this.
The big reason is that actually accepting them for membership would cause the Greater Russian Nationalists to kick off even more than they have. It might even start the war we all don't want.
The main result from all of this is that Ukraine has moved massively up the Friends of NATO list - not quite to Swedish or Finish levels, but close.
Ok. But what about the reason I suggest? Isn't that also a big reason? Seems to me it likely is. I mean, imagine if they were in NATO now. The US would be on the hook to do what they clearly don't want to do.
I think more that (like adding Finland) it would be a kick off point for the Russians. An escalation.
Ok, so don't bring Ukraine into NATO because to do so might provoke Russia to attack it and if Russia attacks a NATO country the US must respond and we have a potential WW3 type situation. I think we are maybe saying the same thing in our different ways. Anyway, bottom line, what I think we agree on, Ukraine won't be joining NATO after this business and wouldn't have been before it. So it wasn't about NATO.
That's the rational view.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
It's a convenient fiction, M. No serious politician in Russia ever seriously thought the West would invade any time after 1945. It always suited the thugs to convince the mugs of this though.
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
That doesn't seem fair to all concerned.
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
Its certainly true that the US/UK delayed launching a second front in Europe until 1944, but in no way did they leave Russia fighting all alone. For a start Russia was given tremendous amounts of material for fighting the war - not least thousands of trucks.
In fact it seems the contribution was vast - 400,000 jeeps & trucks 14,000 airplanes 8,000 tractors 13,000 tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of army boots 107,000 tons of cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 4.5 million tons of food
In addition Harris maintained a second front in the air against Germany. He never managed to win a war from the air alone, but he also never got his 4000 Lancasters (his desired 'full' roster). The bombing campaign kept troops and guns at home in Germany and not on the Eastern Front. The same is true of fighter aircraft.
In effect the Western Allies spent cash and Russian lives to win the war. I sometimes think that the true carnage seen in the Eastern Front is glossed over in the west. Our butchers bill for the whole second world war is only 450,000 (forces and civilian together). The Russians may have lost 20,000,000 people.
As I have said before on here, the UK's contribution to the war was time, the US' materiel, and the USSR's blood. That, of course, is a vast oversimplification. But the war would not have been won without each of those.
It may well be that the purchase was just very badly timed and the value has been affected by Covid, as so many office buildings have. Matters may well improve when they finish rebuilding Birmingham. (It's a wreck at the moment.)
Nice to see McCluskey getting it in the neck anyway.
I think there must be Project Management questions too, surely, or due diligence not done professionally? 70% is a hell of a hit.
My next door Council, Mansfield, bought a £12m Travelodge hotel in Edinburgh in 2018, to give a £600k income, but they seem to have a way out.
If Biden doesn't want Nord Stream 2, as in really, really not want it, then the Germans would have to like that. And they know it.
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
It’s not often I think you are missing something important Malmsy, but how about this: think of what is coming down the 2 pipes as being heroin. Biden said to the EU junkies, you are not going back to “the supplier” for more. Instead of agreeing with Biden, Our continental cousins thought Biden an impractical idiot. And yesterday Boris repeated to Europe what Biden had told them.
In my Ukraine Crisis analysis big post Sunday night I made comparison of what Putin is doing here with Lady Thatcher and the Miners strike in 1980’s. Lady Thatcher won the strike, but a big part of winning the conflict was the planning before hand building up the coal stocks and other ways not to be dependent on miners digging coal - so if miners decided to strike they would be starved back to work.
I think these two allegory work, because in the diplomatic battle for desired outcomes here, such as agreement on sanctions, Washington prefers those pipelines turned off, Moscow happy to have them on.
Do you see what I am trying to say? Am I wrong.
That’s a really beautiful still image btw. Look at that Putin and weep 😉
From what I can tell, Europe including Germany can just about manage without Russian gas. It is certainly going to cost, but as things stand Europe is paying twice as much for its energy this year compared with last. Those high fossil fuel prices will drive the transition to green faster than anything.
Governments with electorates fear high fuel prices but if forced they will work out other means. Russia is on a losing path in the medium term with piped gas. In the short term they are in clover due to the high prices even if they ship less, but this will accelerate their decline.
Indeed, high gas prices will habituate consumers to price levels that support green energy.
Comments
The American leverage of imposing financial sanctions is massive. And shitting on Deutsche Bank would be a very., very popular move in the US.
I sort of feel, correct me where I am wrong, London and Washington big on shoulder to shoulder, democracy, Freedom, sovereign state, self determination rhetoric - but whenever it could start world war three the evidence says - like Lib Dems entering a coalition government - junk all that in a bin! The evidence is, 1938, 1945, 2022 etc
Ukraine's relationship with the EU is the bigger issue and what kicked this whole thing off. The EU normalises countries and is supranational. There is no role for Putin's Russia in the EU's world view.
1914 was accidentally started by having too many "automatic" treaties/red lines. See the "Guns of August"...
Which in itself if laughable...
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.formula-1-to-hold-three-sprint-events-in-2022-with-more-points-on-offer.4UXmrMDm6We04ZFlW0Ieo9.html
And to counter Putin's hold over gas supplies, we should start building tidal power stations like there's no tomorrow. Putin may be powerful in hydrocarbons, but he can't hold back our tides.
I'm not in the public eye, but sadly it seems its all too common for people who are to receive stuff like this. It doesn't mean that what Johnson did was ok - it wasn't, it was a distortion of the truth for political gain. But its also wrong to blame the actions of lunatics and mentally ill people, or just plain nasty bits of work, on politicians. I don't blame Angela Raynor for the death of David Amess, however inflammatory her words and beliefs are/were.
This seeped into the structure of how they perceive the world. So on military maps, NATO countries are coloured as a single block.
One of those parties being the Conservative one.
https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1493526646955122689?s=20&t=csbUQszHPEx5bmC1zKk4ig
Two questions spring to mind:
1. How would Scholz's DNA be useful to the Russians?
2. If it is useful, why can't the Russians simply pick up a hair or flake of skin from Scholz's end of the (previously sterilised) conference table after the meeting and analyse that?
Putin cemented his initial grip on power by winning a war in Chechnya. Any new leader would want a similar demonstration of power.
Mind you, that was in the context of the EEC being a giant free(er) trade area.
But commercially, they’re brilliant, with large increases in the audience across the weekend. TBH the surprise is that they haven’t gone for a load more of them.
Granted, we didn't rush a NATO brigade to Ukraine, as one gung ho Tory MP suggested, but there was a pretty coordinated western response in terms of sanctions, and large amounts of weapons were sent in a short space of time. Neither would have stopped a determined invasion, but they made such a thing considerably more costly.
There's no pretence about not wanting WWIII; that is quite genuine.
Of all the non-startery non-starters, Russian membership of the EU is the one least likely to ever even be talked about in a serious way.
Significant long-term military support has come from UK, US, Canada - going back to 2014. Not sure about, but UK/Canada have trained 30k troops between them. Plus there is the UK startegic partnership thing.
Kit for the navy is significant from UK, USA, France. That is more on a business basis.
And more widely from certain European countries in the last 6 months.
Longer term (ie since 1990s) Ukr have been in the associate programmes of both NATO and EU. EU institutionally mainly focused on building civil society aiui.
AFAIK the significant European contributors to Russia's military have been France / Germany to the tune of 2+ billion Euro, which was pulled in 2014.
There is a UK Parl Report on it:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07135/SN07135.pdf
As I see it the big project has been to help Ukr gradually become a Western style democracy, which is what Putin is really scared of as the Russian people might want one.
I do think there is a bit of fatigue setting in over the parties story too so I think he’s got a point. No cash has come my way from CCHQ for that.
I think this is one of the fundamental structural problems of the EU - it was set up to be a one-way street without thought about how to prune membership if needed.
The implicit threat contained in the recognition of Donbas “republics” lies in the fact that the “republics” claim sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including parts controlled by Ukraine - Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk. It is a threat of war.
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1493556709209612292
Certainly, it is in all strongmen's interest not to be seen as vulnerable (given how many enemies they'll have made along the way), and disease, particularly one as potentially severe as COVID, makes one vulnerable.
A Parking ticket - which is a fixed penalty - is a bit harsh.
Exclusive: Unite Facing £70 Million Loss Over Controversial Hotel Complex
The union spent nearly £100 million building the Birmingham venue, which is now the subject of a QC-led inquiry.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/unite-len-mccluskey-sharon-graham_uk_620b482ae4b0e224afcc285e
Or in purely English terms, the Eastern Counties and East Midlands.
Not Birmingham.
On WW2, my understanding is that we were nowhere near liberating Eastern Europe first, and during a long war the first priority is in any case not racing to pip your allies to the post. Austria was a case where we moved in jointly, and in due course the Russians left them to it. Patton's idea to carry on the war in 1945 by fighting the Reds as well had virtually zero support anywhere.
The problem in 1938 was not recognising the main threat, and hoping Germany and Russia would just fight it out between them.
Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin
The implicit threat contained in the recognition of Donbas “republics” lies in the fact that the “republics” claim sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including parts controlled by Ukraine - Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk. It is a threat of war.
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1493556709209612292
Since it's Ministerial Code, the PM presumably.
And we all know how that ends.
I'd suggest a joint Bill of Attainder punishing Blair and Johnson for their lies to Parliament.
I fear that if we don't take some sort of decisive measure then it will become progressively easier for Ministers to mislead Parliament and not resign. And what hope of holding Ministers to account if they can lie without sanction?
It may well be that the purchase was just very badly timed and the value has been affected by Covid, as so many office buildings have. Matters may well improve when they finish rebuilding Birmingham. (It's a wreck at the moment.)
Nice to see McCluskey getting it in the neck anyway.
If this war goes hot and Russia is either humiliated or bogged down in another Viet Nam/Afghanistan, then I think the domestic ledger also eventually goes deep into the red for him, even if at first it seems to boost him.
If the House does not wish to be lied to then it will need to find a cross-party means of enforcing the rule.
Trump's NATO policy is also looking a bit flaky, and his cosying up to Putin which looked dangerous at the time now merely looks embarrassing.
I don't see any easy solution though. It is a simple demonstrable fact that the PM has lied and lied to the house and then lied and lied to deny that he lied and lied. The House has straightforward rules to enforce the rules with the minor problem that the person who broke the rules continues to deny it and the ultimate arbiter of the rules is the person who has broken them.
Ultimately this is a battle between the executive and the legislature. The Treasury bench treats the house in open contempt and gets pulled up by the Speaker but he always stops short of sanction. Any sanction would be branded as hyper-partisan as you say because of the cadre of Tory MPs who like their boss have no personal standards or morality or grace or decency.
Its right and wrong boys and girls, not party politics. Once lies and corruption and malfeasance and disregard for the law embed themselves everyone loses.
In the mindset of Greater Russian Nationalists, Mother Russia is *always* being encircled, attacked etc
To them, it's the incremental chomping away of NATO and the EU, taking pieces of the Sacred Russian Empire away - forever. That is the danger.
The idea, to them, that the West would stop.... it is contradictory to their world view. How can the enemy be stopped, unless by the Might of Mother Russia? The enemy can't just not attack...
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1493593679071698956
@larisamlbrown·7m Western sources believe that on balance they have seen more reinforcements of Russian troops towards Ukraine
https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1493598475304505347
But this strategy is not entirely without parallel elsewhere.
What sane American ever thought communism was an existential threat to the USA? How then do you explain the career of Joe McCarthy? Even now even the remotest sympathy with socialism is terminal to a political career there, if not also a normal social life. The fear of commusnism in the USA is manufactured for political purposes. In reality, it's innocuous.
Word was, he'd had heart surgery and was, miraculously, a man renewed....
In my Ukraine Crisis analysis big post Sunday night I made comparison of what Putin is doing here with Lady Thatcher and the Miners strike in 1980’s. Lady Thatcher won the strike, but a big part of winning the conflict was the planning before hand building up the coal stocks and other ways not to be dependent on miners digging coal - so if miners decided to strike they would be starved back to work.
I think these two allegory work, because in the diplomatic battle for desired outcomes here, such as agreement on sanctions, Washington prefers those pipelines turned off, Moscow happy to have them on.
Do you see what I am trying to say? Am I wrong.
That’s a really beautiful still image btw. Look at that Putin and weep 😉
Consider first the position of Russia in 1945. Stalin had believed very strongly that the Germans would not invade in 1941, and that proved to be a costly mistake. Western countries had intervened militarily in the Russian civil war. Stalin begged the Western Allies to open up a Western Front against the Nazis, but D-Day didn't happen until after more than three years of fighting on the Eastern Front. The Americans then use a new super weapon to shut Russia out of playing a part in settling the peace in the Pacific.
There seems to be reasonable grounds for suspicion there.
Pretty easy to draw up a similar charge sheet against the Russians. The blockade of West Berlin was hardly an innocuous act, for example.
So racist even the most un-woke like I probably am will be pretty gobsmacked.
There is a guy called Nick Fuentes who is seriously a young Hitler. The most bonkers thing is that he’s banging on about racial purity and that the US is English and Christian blah blah blah and you want Theroux to ask him “ok so you are of Spanish/Italian immigrant stock - are you ‘lesser’ than the WASPS you hold as the untermensch?” And secondly, when he’s banging on about no immigrants to the US does he not get that he and all his followers who aren’t Native American are immigrants who’ve ruined the country for original settlers!
I also don’t get their beef with Jews. But like I said it’s actually really worrying what’s been unleashed by social media combined with Trump - at the end I just thought “Trump seriously has a lot to answer for” it really rammed home the divisions he’s unleashed.
I was talking about post '45 anyway.
In fact it seems the contribution was vast -
400,000 jeeps & trucks
14,000 airplanes
8,000 tractors
13,000 tanks
1.5 million blankets
15 million pairs of army boots
107,000 tons of cotton
2.7 million tons of petrol products
4.5 million tons of food
In addition Harris maintained a second front in the air against Germany. He never managed to win a war from the air alone, but he also never got his 4000 Lancasters (his desired 'full' roster). The bombing campaign kept troops and guns at home in Germany and not on the Eastern Front. The same is true of fighter aircraft.
In effect the Western Allies spent cash and Russian lives to win the war. I sometimes think that the true carnage seen in the Eastern Front is glossed over in the west. Our butchers bill for the whole second world war is only 450,000 (forces and civilian together). The Russians may have lost 20,000,000 people.
However on a few occasions today you have likened Johnson's potential FPN with a traffic violation, and you have missed the mark. On a basic point of morality Johnson instructed us to behave ourselves during Covid, he and his chums on the other hand disregarded his/ their own advice. So it is different. He should resign for taking the voters of the UK for mugs.
There is a more important precedent however. If he gets issued with an FPN it means he mislead Parliament, that is a resigning offence.
My friend who votes SDP, there, for example, who now refers to Gerhard Schröder in terms of being Putins puppet in a way that will get me banned if I say it literally.
So, the real 'war' Putin is engaged in with NATO is not one of land or tanks, but of ideas and influence. In the market of freedom of thought, he is losing that battle too. Hence his need to be opportunistic to achieve his ends through more nefarious means.
Governments with electorates fear high fuel prices but if forced they will work out other means. Russia is on a losing path in the medium term with piped gas. In the short term they are in clover due to the high prices even if they ship less, but this will accelerate their decline.
(Be careful @Leon doesn't add you to his 'Wokelist' though! 😉)
My next door Council, Mansfield, bought a £12m Travelodge hotel in Edinburgh in 2018, to give a £600k income, but they seem to have a way out.
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/politics/mansfield-district-council-to-sell-hotel-after-travel-industry-takes-a-hit-because-of-covid-3367858
It is in amongst a larger portfolio.
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/more-council-cash-be-invested-outside-mansfield-155047
No idea whether they will have blood on the floor on any decisions. But I bet they have some gnawed finger nails.
Both Independent and Lab controlled over the period. Lab since 2019.