New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
I agree with your point Farooq. According the media, when Hancock was caught with his hand in the cookie jar, the government procurement card was used to quickly buy a job lot of bags for the security cameras and the bags are still in place.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Whats interesting here is that whilst he says it is being investigated, it is not on the list of events being investigated - not referred to the police.
So, either the police have expanded their investigation and not told anyone. Or he lied to the house in response of Fabian Hamilton's question. And then lied to the house again in response to the final question calling him back to Fabian Hamilton's question.
More interesting for me than the poll leads are the relative numbers and direction of travel. It's not just about the Tory fall, Labour have been consistently edging up since last summer, albeit with acceleration recently. This is good for Labour, I think, as it's a bit more positive than just the other side being shit.
But still no signs of life in Scottish Labour though. Every time I suspect I spot a wee uptick it evaporates.
SLab Westminster VI since Anas Sarwar became leader:
I cannot detect any sort of trend there. Flatlining within MoE.
And without very significant increases in Scotland, Starmer can forget Lab Maj.
True, though if Labour win most seats in a hung parliament then Starmer can ignore the SNP too.
Only if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament would Starmer need SNP support to govern if Labour +SNP are still more than Tories +DUP
How is Labour going to pass English domestic legislation?
They wouldn't but that just results in a second election where the English would need to make up their minds and where Labour may have a chance of winning a few Scottish seats.
Although any sensible Labour Government stuck with a minority but supported by the SNP would probably be rapidly looking at a form of PR to fix the issue.
I’d be amazed if Starmer has not got his PR plan ready to go. He’s just got to time it right.
PR splits the Labour Party.
Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.
Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
What’s not to like?? If your name’s Keir Starmer!
Corbynites fuck off. Check.
Sane unions stay, mad unions go. Check.
SNP halved. Check.
Centrist government in perpetuity. Check.
Far right screwed. Check.
He’d be a mug not to.
We would generally have centrist governments under PR yes, with the LDs becoming like the FDP in Germany and almost always being in power in coalition governments regardless of whether there was a Tory or Labour led government.
However not always, for example in 2015 we would have had a Conservative and UKIP government under PR, so would still have probably ended up with Brexit anyway (unless Cameron had decided to do a Merkel style grand coalition with Ed Miliband's Labour to avoid dealing with Farage)
I'm not sure of that, as I think you also agreed previously, because the existing parties would fragment and reform into different groupings, although I agree it would generally be centrist but not necessarily always.
Hmm. Look at Israel. Govt frequently at whim of extremes. Law of unintended consequences.
It's the system they use. Ireland's a better example.
The point of PR is that it can be designed to give yourself almost the result you want.
Personally I like the Irish approach of 5 member constituencies because it ensures there is a choice of views with popular parties getting 2 seats but the size of the constituency does determine the final makeup....
4 seat constituencies than the most popular party ends up with 2 seats in most constituencies, 5 seat constituencies and the 2 most popular parties would end up with 2 seats.
The latter creates a Parliament that would feel very different to the former.
Only to a limited extent, much more limited than with FPTP. De Valera messed around with the method of election at least once in an attempt to retain power, and it didn't go entirely to plan.
The most obvious ruse in a British STV system would be to have urban constituencies with more members (say a single Edinburgh constituency of 5 or 6 MPs) and have rural constituencies with fewer members (say 3 MPs) so that they're not geographically too big.
Makes it easier for the Tories to pick up seats in urban areas, but harder for Labour to do the same in rural areas.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Whats interesting here is that whilst he says it is being investigated, it is not on the list of events being investigated - not referred to the police.
So, either the police have expanded their investigation and not told anyone. Or he lied to the house in response of Fabian Hamilton's question. And then lied to the house again in response to the final question calling him back to Fabian Hamilton's question.
If the Met have expanded their investigations why on earth should they tell the public and to be honest there is a danger that the public will be turned off and frustrated as their real concerns are cost of living crisis
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Absolutely right. Boris needs an expensive police investigation and many weeks delay to inform him, what we are seeing in that photograph actually happened, so he can relay the answer to us… alongside how we are the fasting growing economy in the universe, first to open up from covid, how crime figures are down if you ignore this or that crime. Etc. Etc.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
Terrifying fact - the original script for Groundhog Day had the loop lasting 10,000 years....
So how long did it last ? ( I don't think that's made clear.)
Various numbers - some script writers said 10 years... I don't think there is an official answer.
The original script was apparently quite dark. 10,000 years was supposed to have really, really messed him up.
Left unstated, as I thought. It's a meta critique of Buddhism - you go through all those cycles of death and rebirth just to... live out the rest of your life. But in a good way.
I am old enough to remember when I was told categorically by several people on here that there were no photos of Johnson at any parties and he never attended them.
Really? I think most said that they would believe it when they saw the photos, which is not the same thing at all.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Absolutely right. Boris needs an expensive police investigation and many weeks delay to inform him, what we are seeing in that photograph actually happened, so he can relay the answer to us… alongside how we are the fasting growing economy in the universe, first to open up from covid, how crime figures are down if you ignore this or that crime. Etc. Etc.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
As has been noted Starmer is turning his attacks on Rishi as it is clear he would have a real fight on his hands with Rishi opposite him at the dispatch box
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Absolutely right. Boris needs an expensive police investigation and many weeks delay to inform him, what we are seeing in that photograph actually happened, so he can relay the answer to us… alongside how we are the fasting growing economy in the universe, first to open up from covid, how crime figures are down if you ignore this or that crime. Etc. Etc.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
As has been noted Starmer is turning his attacks on Rishi as it is clear he would have a real fight on his hands with Rishi opposite him at the dispatch box
Nah, Rishi is shit, I'm reminded just how bad his budget was in March 2020 when it was clear there was a global pandemic in the offing and he made no preparations for it.
He's only got the job because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom.
If Rishi was awesome he would have ousted Boris by now, so there's two possibilities, he's either shit at politics, or he's in the pictures.
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
Fuxsake what kind of Conservative are you?
Here is a photo of the PM stood behind a colleague wearing a party garland sat at a table with an open bottle of plonk on it. It is categorically a work meeting of the kind that we were all having at the time.
In answer I would say I certainly hope not! Wearing Christmas tinsel as a feather boa is the most naff look, is it not? First rule of dress sense is not to be caught between this or that. The whole nation should be shaken by that photograph. No style sense should = not fit to lead in most peoples opinion.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Whats interesting here is that whilst he says it is being investigated, it is not on the list of events being investigated - not referred to the police.
So, either the police have expanded their investigation and not told anyone. Or he lied to the house in response of Fabian Hamilton's question. And then lied to the house again in response to the final question calling him back to Fabian Hamilton's question.
If the Met have expanded their investigations why on earth should they tell the public and to be honest there is a danger that the public will be turned off and frustrated as their real concerns are cost of living crisis
Sure! Its just that when the PM is someone who endlessly lies and misleads, thinks that the fraud epidemic isn't crime and is making consumers pay more to shore up BP's profits, its all relevant.
What seems very clear is that he has just lied to the house twice on a single issue in a single session. Has been hauled over the coals for continuing to say crime is falling - a lie. The official statisticians have remonstrated against his lies. He's still lying about it.
So how can anyone trust him and his government to tackle the cost of living crisis?
Talk about death by a thousand cuts. Every reset is going to be hit by another photo, another bit of info. Backbenchers really ought to perform a mercy killing now. Don't make Dom your enemy after employing him.
At the moment Dom thinks he will be back if Sunak gets the gig. Not so sure.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Absolutely right. Boris needs an expensive police investigation and many weeks delay to inform him, what we are seeing in that photograph actually happened, so he can relay the answer to us… alongside how we are the fasting growing economy in the universe, first to open up from covid, how crime figures are down if you ignore this or that crime. Etc. Etc.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
As has been noted Starmer is turning his attacks on Rishi as it is clear he would have a real fight on his hands with Rishi opposite him at the dispatch box
Nah, Rishi is shit, I'm reminded just how bad his budget was in March 2020 when it was clear there was a global pandemic in the offing and he made no preparations for it.
He's only got the job because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom.
If Rishi was awesome he would have ousted Boris by now, so there's two possibilities, he's either shit at politics, or he's in the pictures.
He's in the birthday cake photos with Bozo drinking from a can and Rishi drinking a can of something soft.
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
Fuxsake what kind of Conservative are you?
Here is a photo of the PM stood behind a colleague wearing a party garland sat at a table with an open bottle of plonk on it. It is categorically a work meeting of the kind that we were all having at the time.
In answer I would say I certainly hope not! Wearing Christmas tinsel as a feather boa is the most naff look, is it not? First rule of dress sense is not to be caught between this or that. The whole nation should be shaken by that photograph. No style sense should = not fit to lead in most peoples opinion.
I have said before that the Tories should be hounded out of office for their inability to hold a decent shindig. Rubbish activities, style-less clothes and shite drinks.
This morning I was speaking to a Brexiteer who used to worked for the government before the photo emerged, his fear for the Brexit project is that it is difficult to believe but most Leavers weren't hardened Brexiteers but a lot of people who were probably 5/10 or 6/10 in favour of it.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
No that's the curtains. They are like that always.
To curtains to what? The door?
The window. We did all this ages ago - some idiot thought the curtains were a covered up security cam, so evidence of trying to 'hide' a party. I think @Farooq was being cheeky, the little scamp...
Laughable from the MP for Dover saying that the miles of queues to Dover are NOT to do with Brexit but are to do with "Brussels red tape".
Erm, she does understand that the red tape was imposed by us as part of our post-Brexit settlement?
Slight edit... We didn't impose it, the red tape is a consequence of decisions we've made that left the EU with no choice but to impose it...
We demanded 3rd country status. This is 3rd country status.
But that forgets the fact the people demanding 3rd country status didn't understand what 3rd party status actually looked like, even after they were sent the picture book version.
New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
No that's the curtains. They are like that always.
To curtains to what? The door?
The window. We did all this ages ago - some idiot thought the curtains were a covered up security cam, so evidence of trying to 'hide' a party. I think @Farooq was being cheeky, the little scamp...
It was Pesto grade idiocy - remember his inability to understand the effects of modern camera lenses?
Major is another fucking 2nd voter, like Starmer et al. Despicable piece of anti-democratic sh1t. Another British Trumpite marching on parliament to overthrow an election
"Former British prime minister John Major has called for a free vote in parliament on whether to hold a second EU referendum. He is the most senior Conservative yet to attack what he called the government’s “unrealistic” Brexit strategy.
In a speech in London that comes at the lowest point so far in the 18-month withdrawal negotiations, Major argued parliament had a duty to consider the “wellbeing of the people”, as well as the will of the people in the first referendum.
“This must be a decisive vote, in which parliament can accept or reject the final outcome; or send the negotiators back to seek improvements; or order a referendum,” he was due to say according to an advance copy of the speech. “That is what parliamentary sovereignty means.”
“No one can truly know what ‘the will of the people’ may then be. So, let parliament decide. Or put the issue back to the people,” he said."
Let him fuck off back to Huntingdonshire and his deserved obscurity. He has no credibility on anything
John Major was truly the king of the hypocrites.
There were no free votes or referendum on his precious Maastricht treaty.
And then there was his affair with Edwina Currie contrasted with his 'back to basics' morality drive.
I find Major an utterly repulsive figure, his canting lies about Europe are one reason we ended up where we did, as you say
There are a zillion reasons to dump Boris, and I think he should be dumped, but the opinion of John bloody Major is not one of them
I actually disagree with that. Maastricht, with its pillars, variable geometry, opt outs and subsidiarity created a place where the UK could be in the EU getting what we wanted out of it whilst not getting in the road of those who wanted more, such as the single currency. Of course we should have had a vote on it but it did offer us at least the foundations of the half way house we were looking for.
The problem was that Blair in particular, and Brown, wanted to be at the heart of Europe so they gave up some of the opt outs and put us back on the track to ever closer union, albeit at a slower pace, through Lisbon. And, of course, we still didn't get a vote on it.
If they had built on the path Major set out in Maastricht instead I think that we would still be in the EU, with the vast majority (if not all the fanatics) quite content with our half way house.
And that would also be Blair and Brown who were democratically elected to govern the UK according to their political philosophy.
No-one (sane) is disputing that Brown had the legal right to do what he did. It's just that, if he wanted us to remain part of the EU, what he did was very bad strategy, because it essentially forced the electorate to demand an in-out referendum to settle the matter, and therefore he takes a large share of the blame for why we left.
I agree that if Brown had followed through, allowed the referendum on Lisbon, and then refused to sign it after we voted No by (say) 65:35, we would still be in the EU. Unless of course, the EU had found another way to enact it anyway, and then we would have also left by now, having spotted that they don't actually care what we think.
Did the electorate really demand an in-out referendum, as you claim? I think that may be a bit of myth. Despite efforts in the media to ramp up hatred of the EU, my recollection is that prior to around 2015 the electorate wasn't that interested in the EU - although they did have concerns about immigration.
But the referendum was primarily about the Tory Party, and the threat to its right flank from UKIP, wasn't it? That's the boil that Cameron was seeking, and failed, to lance.
The elctorate wanted a chance to say no to the federalisation ratchet and ever closer union. Because we were denied the chance over Maastricht, the Constitution and Lisbon, the in/out vote was the only option.
Wearing Captain Hindsight’s glasses, it didn’t need to be an in out referendum, that made for a campaign very poor at educating the electorate on all the potential options and outcomes. I blame the remainers for this, if the options were known the electorate would have chosen something the remainers didn’t want, the remainers tried to bounce us.
In my opinion, and I am right, if it started with 6 options for type of arrangement and new deal, whittled down in a run off between two, the campaign would have been x100 more educational, and our country in a much better place today.
Correct - Cameron wasn't interested in the electorate making an educated decision, he wanted us to vote to Remain.
It’s good to be in agreement applicant. First the forced choice, rather than the nuanced options available, and then remainers followed up with a project fear - every household in UK living in poverty and world war three breaking out nonsense.
Actually, in a couple of months both those might be true.
This morning I was speaking to a Brexiteer who used to worked for the government before the photo emerged, his fear for the Brexit project is that it is difficult to believe but most Leavers weren't hardened Brexiteers but a lot of people who were probably 5/10 or 6/10 in favour of it.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
Most leavers voted for their own personal unicorn version of Brexit - which means all versions of Brexit are probably not what they wanted.
Boris saying Brexit is a success simply reinforces that they haven't got the Brexit they wanted - I suspect the various lies (no party, Brexit being great) are getting to the point where they reinforce each other.
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
Fuxsake what kind of Conservative are you?
Here is a photo of the PM stood behind a colleague wearing a party garland sat at a table with an open bottle of plonk on it. It is categorically a work meeting of the kind that we were all having at the time.
In answer I would say I certainly hope not! Wearing Christmas tinsel as a feather boa is the most naff look, is it not? First rule of dress sense is not to be caught between this or that. The whole nation should be shaken by that photograph. No style sense should = not fit to lead in most peoples opinion.
I have said before that the Tories should be hounded out of office for their inability to hold a decent shindig. Rubbish activities, style-less clothes and shite drinks.
Enough.
Indeed - you have the Police looking the other way. You have interns man-packing stuff into the building - with a complete bypass of security. You literally have control of the budget. THE BUDGET.
With that you get a shite wine fridge and some lager?
This morning I was speaking to a Brexiteer who used to worked for the government before the photo emerged, his fear for the Brexit project is that it is difficult to believe but most Leavers weren't hardened Brexiteers but a lot of people who were probably 5/10 or 6/10 in favour of it.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
So. If they get someone trusted to say Brexit is a success often enough, then it will be a success? Is that what it boils down to?
This morning I was speaking to a Brexiteer who used to worked for the government before the photo emerged, his fear for the Brexit project is that it is difficult to believe but most Leavers weren't hardened Brexiteers but a lot of people who were probably 5/10 or 6/10 in favour of it.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
So. If they get someone trusted to say Brexit is a success often enough, then it will be a success? Is that what it boils down to?
Pretty much.
Right now the public think Boris Johnson lies every time he opens his mouth, so remove him, it won't damage the Brexit project.
This windfall tax policy - is it smart politics by Starmer and Labour?
As the government are jacking up energy bills and forcing consumers to take out a loan to help out the poor energy companies it certainly feels like smart politics.
Wow. I'm sure it's possible to compose a bigger mischaracterisation of the situation, but this is a fine effort.
"forcing consumers to take out a loan" - the literal policy being imposed "to help out the poor energy companies" - a minor paraphrasing of what the PM has just said at the dispatch box.
So the first part of that is untrue - it's no more a loan than a student loan is a loan.
And the second, one man's minor paraphrasing is another's total invention.
Thanks Guto, we appreciate the official spin line. As the PM has just responded to a question about a photo of him at a party by telling the house it never happened, I can understand why his own words can be discarded as you propose.
I have no sympathy with Boris but he did not say it never happened and indeed has just said it is part of the Met investigation
Absolutely right. Boris needs an expensive police investigation and many weeks delay to inform him, what we are seeing in that photograph actually happened, so he can relay the answer to us… alongside how we are the fasting growing economy in the universe, first to open up from covid, how crime figures are down if you ignore this or that crime. Etc. Etc.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
As has been noted Starmer is turning his attacks on Rishi as it is clear he would have a real fight on his hands with Rishi opposite him at the dispatch box
Nah, Rishi is shit, I'm reminded just how bad his budget was in March 2020 when it was clear there was a global pandemic in the offing and he made no preparations for it.
He's only got the job because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom.
If Rishi was awesome he would have ousted Boris by now, so there's two possibilities, he's either shit at politics, or he's in the pictures.
He is still the Heir (all too) Apparent. That's more due to a lack of realistic alternatives than Sunak's brilliance, as evidenced by sensible people promoting the idea of Tom Tugendhat being catapulted into Number Ten. Surrounding himself with ninnies and lickspittles is part of Johnson's plan to stay in the Big Chair himself.
So although attacking Sunak could be because the opposition fear him, it could just be that they reckon that Johnson isn't worth attacking any more. And everyone expects Sunak to inherit the top job without really exerting himself.
More interesting for me than the poll leads are the relative numbers and direction of travel. It's not just about the Tory fall, Labour have been consistently edging up since last summer, albeit with acceleration recently. This is good for Labour, I think, as it's a bit more positive than just the other side being shit.
But still no signs of life in Scottish Labour though. Every time I suspect I spot a wee uptick it evaporates.
SLab Westminster VI since Anas Sarwar became leader:
I cannot detect any sort of trend there. Flatlining within MoE.
And without very significant increases in Scotland, Starmer can forget Lab Maj.
True, though if Labour win most seats in a hung parliament then Starmer can ignore the SNP too.
Only if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament would Starmer need SNP support to govern if Labour +SNP are still more than Tories +DUP
How is Labour going to pass English domestic legislation?
They wouldn't but that just results in a second election where the English would need to make up their minds and where Labour may have a chance of winning a few Scottish seats.
Although any sensible Labour Government stuck with a minority but supported by the SNP would probably be rapidly looking at a form of PR to fix the issue.
I’d be amazed if Starmer has not got his PR plan ready to go. He’s just got to time it right.
PR splits the Labour Party.
Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.
Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
What’s not to like?? If your name’s Keir Starmer!
Corbynites fuck off. Check.
Sane unions stay, mad unions go. Check.
SNP halved. Check.
Centrist government in perpetuity. Check.
Far right screwed. Check.
He’d be a mug not to.
We would generally have centrist governments under PR yes, with the LDs becoming like the FDP in Germany and almost always being in power in coalition governments regardless of whether there was a Tory or Labour led government.
However not always, for example in 2015 we would have had a Conservative and UKIP government under PR, so would still have probably ended up with Brexit anyway (unless Cameron had decided to do a Merkel style grand coalition with Ed Miliband's Labour to avoid dealing with Farage)
I'm not sure of that, as I think you also agreed previously, because the existing parties would fragment and reform into different groupings, although I agree it would generally be centrist but not necessarily always.
Hmm. Look at Israel. Govt frequently at whim of extremes. Law of unintended consequences.
The parlous state of Israeli politics is not because they have PR, but because of the highly fractured nature of Israeli society. If they had FPTP, you would still have a parliament of multiple parties that can agree on little. Arab areas would vote for Arab parties. Tel Aviv would vote for more liberal parties. Settlers in the occupied territories would vote for hardline right-wingers. Religious Jewish areas would vote for religious Jewish parties.
This morning I was speaking to a Brexiteer who used to worked for the government before the photo emerged, his fear for the Brexit project is that it is difficult to believe but most Leavers weren't hardened Brexiteers but a lot of people who were probably 5/10 or 6/10 in favour of it.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
So. If they get someone trusted to say Brexit is a success often enough, then it will be a success? Is that what it boils down to?
Pretty much.
Right now the public think Boris Johnson lies every time he opens his mouth, so remove him, it won't damage the Brexit project.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Correction. Definitely on at 40-1 I rechecked, but not a pony, only a lady!
New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
No that's the curtains. They are like that always.
To curtains to what? The door?
The window. We did all this ages ago - some idiot thought the curtains were a covered up security cam, so evidence of trying to 'hide' a party. I think @Farooq was being cheeky, the little scamp...
It was Pesto grade idiocy - remember his inability to understand the effects of modern camera lenses?
It occurs to me that Starmer pressing for a windfall tax on the gas and oil industry is not going to win friends in Scotland when even the SNP oppose it and it is vital to Scotland's economy
Even though the SNP oppose it, not all Scots work in the oil and gas industry, and Scots are being hit harder by energy costs, due to the colder weather than other parts of the UK. I would suspect the majority of Scots will be in favour of a windfall tax.
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
I believe they need to wait for the Met enquiry and Gray to report before making a decision on whether that is Boris Johnson or someone who looks a little like Boris Johnson in the picture.
More interesting for me than the poll leads are the relative numbers and direction of travel. It's not just about the Tory fall, Labour have been consistently edging up since last summer, albeit with acceleration recently. This is good for Labour, I think, as it's a bit more positive than just the other side being shit.
But still no signs of life in Scottish Labour though. Every time I suspect I spot a wee uptick it evaporates.
SLab Westminster VI since Anas Sarwar became leader:
I cannot detect any sort of trend there. Flatlining within MoE.
And without very significant increases in Scotland, Starmer can forget Lab Maj.
True, though if Labour win most seats in a hung parliament then Starmer can ignore the SNP too.
Only if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament would Starmer need SNP support to govern if Labour +SNP are still more than Tories +DUP
How is Labour going to pass English domestic legislation?
They wouldn't but that just results in a second election where the English would need to make up their minds and where Labour may have a chance of winning a few Scottish seats.
Although any sensible Labour Government stuck with a minority but supported by the SNP would probably be rapidly looking at a form of PR to fix the issue.
I’d be amazed if Starmer has not got his PR plan ready to go. He’s just got to time it right.
PR splits the Labour Party.
Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.
Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
What’s not to like?? If your name’s Keir Starmer!
Corbynites fuck off. Check.
Sane unions stay, mad unions go. Check.
SNP halved. Check.
Centrist government in perpetuity. Check.
Far right screwed. Check.
He’d be a mug not to.
We would generally have centrist governments under PR yes, with the LDs becoming like the FDP in Germany and almost always being in power in coalition governments regardless of whether there was a Tory or Labour led government.
However not always, for example in 2015 we would have had a Conservative and UKIP government under PR, so would still have probably ended up with Brexit anyway
I have no idea what would happen under PR although I don't necessarily think PR would be good for the Lib Dems (as opposed to sticking with FPTP and trying to build up new fortresses in the south). I'm looking particularly at Spain here (where Ciudadanos has collapsed) which is where I think we'd end up under PR and where hard VOX is in the ascendancy, nudging into 2nd in some polls.
PR hasn't been good for Liberal parties in Europe recently apart from the Netherlands, Germany and arguably Austria (considering the D66, the FDP who are both in gvt and NEOS who are doing OK).
That said I think the chances of any kind of grand coalition have collapsed now that they've fallen out of favour in Europe too.
Ciudadanos' problem wasn't PR, it was that they moved a long way to the right of their voters.
The Lib Dems have already found out what happens when you try that and are in no hurry to repeat the experience.
New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
No that's the curtains. They are like that always.
To curtains to what? The door?
The window. We did all this ages ago - some idiot thought the curtains were a covered up security cam, so evidence of trying to 'hide' a party. I think @Farooq was being cheeky, the little scamp...
It was Pesto grade idiocy - remember his inability to understand the effects of modern camera lenses?
More interesting for me than the poll leads are the relative numbers and direction of travel. It's not just about the Tory fall, Labour have been consistently edging up since last summer, albeit with acceleration recently. This is good for Labour, I think, as it's a bit more positive than just the other side being shit.
But still no signs of life in Scottish Labour though. Every time I suspect I spot a wee uptick it evaporates.
SLab Westminster VI since Anas Sarwar became leader:
I cannot detect any sort of trend there. Flatlining within MoE.
And without very significant increases in Scotland, Starmer can forget Lab Maj.
True, though if Labour win most seats in a hung parliament then Starmer can ignore the SNP too.
Only if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament would Starmer need SNP support to govern if Labour +SNP are still more than Tories +DUP
How is Labour going to pass English domestic legislation?
They wouldn't but that just results in a second election where the English would need to make up their minds and where Labour may have a chance of winning a few Scottish seats.
Although any sensible Labour Government stuck with a minority but supported by the SNP would probably be rapidly looking at a form of PR to fix the issue.
I’d be amazed if Starmer has not got his PR plan ready to go. He’s just got to time it right.
PR splits the Labour Party.
Corbynites and Unions would walk out and form their own party, RefUK would also win seats. The SNP would also win only about half of the seats they do now with PR.
Though most of our governments would end up being Starmer or Blairite Labour and LD or Cameroon Tory and LD (albeit 2015 would have been a Tory and UKIP government with PR)
What’s not to like?? If your name’s Keir Starmer!
Corbynites fuck off. Check.
Sane unions stay, mad unions go. Check.
SNP halved. Check.
Centrist government in perpetuity. Check.
Far right screwed. Check.
He’d be a mug not to.
We would generally have centrist governments under PR yes, with the LDs becoming like the FDP in Germany and almost always being in power in coalition governments regardless of whether there was a Tory or Labour led government.
However not always, for example in 2015 we would have had a Conservative and UKIP government under PR, so would still have probably ended up with Brexit anyway (unless Cameron had decided to do a Merkel style grand coalition with Ed Miliband's Labour to avoid dealing with Farage)
I'm not sure of that, as I think you also agreed previously, because the existing parties would fragment and reform into different groupings, although I agree it would generally be centrist but not necessarily always.
Hmm. Look at Israel. Govt frequently at whim of extremes. Law of unintended consequences.
The parlous state of Israeli politics is not because they have PR, but because of the highly fractured nature of Israeli society. If they had FPTP, you would still have a parliament of multiple parties that can agree on little. Arab areas would vote for Arab parties. Tel Aviv would vote for more liberal parties. Settlers in the occupied territories would vote for hardline right-wingers. Religious Jewish areas would vote for religious Jewish parties.
Yes, it would be more like Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (and London) under FPTP. Regionally dominant parties forming solid blocs of support that rarely flips, and some very very safe seats.
it’s an absolutely perfect evening here in Colombo. 28C, half an hour after sunset.
The sky melts from dusty orange to a deep deep blue, languid music drifts across the Laccadive Sea, the coconut palms rustle in the tenderest breeze
A child plays on the ocean shore, but far away, too far away to hear. The waiter sets down the second dry martini, and turns to look at nothing at all. Candle-light glows
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
It occurs to me that Starmer pressing for a windfall tax on the gas and oil industry is not going to win friends in Scotland when even the SNP oppose it and it is vital to Scotland's economy
Even though the SNP oppose it, not all Scots work in the oil and gas industry, and Scots are being hit harder by energy costs, due to the colder weather than other parts of the UK. I would suspect the majority of Scots will be in favour of a windfall tax.
And the SNP want to shut down the Oil and Gas industry anyway so why woukd they oppose taxing them more in the meantime?
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
Exactly my sentiments
It needs one final, breathtaking revelation, like the last few explosions of a big fireworks display. Cocaine snorting off a downing street official's back, say, or a naked conga.
Then on to more pressing matters like inflation and falling real wages.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
Major is another fucking 2nd voter, like Starmer et al. Despicable piece of anti-democratic sh1t. Another British Trumpite marching on parliament to overthrow an election
"Former British prime minister John Major has called for a free vote in parliament on whether to hold a second EU referendum. He is the most senior Conservative yet to attack what he called the government’s “unrealistic” Brexit strategy.
In a speech in London that comes at the lowest point so far in the 18-month withdrawal negotiations, Major argued parliament had a duty to consider the “wellbeing of the people”, as well as the will of the people in the first referendum.
“This must be a decisive vote, in which parliament can accept or reject the final outcome; or send the negotiators back to seek improvements; or order a referendum,” he was due to say according to an advance copy of the speech. “That is what parliamentary sovereignty means.”
“No one can truly know what ‘the will of the people’ may then be. So, let parliament decide. Or put the issue back to the people,” he said."
Let him fuck off back to Huntingdonshire and his deserved obscurity. He has no credibility on anything
John Major was truly the king of the hypocrites.
There were no free votes or referendum on his precious Maastricht treaty.
And then there was his affair with Edwina Currie contrasted with his 'back to basics' morality drive.
I find Major an utterly repulsive figure, his canting lies about Europe are one reason we ended up where we did, as you say
There are a zillion reasons to dump Boris, and I think he should be dumped, but the opinion of John bloody Major is not one of them
I actually disagree with that. Maastricht, with its pillars, variable geometry, opt outs and subsidiarity created a place where the UK could be in the EU getting what we wanted out of it whilst not getting in the road of those who wanted more, such as the single currency. Of course we should have had a vote on it but it did offer us at least the foundations of the half way house we were looking for.
The problem was that Blair in particular, and Brown, wanted to be at the heart of Europe so they gave up some of the opt outs and put us back on the track to ever closer union, albeit at a slower pace, through Lisbon. And, of course, we still didn't get a vote on it.
If they had built on the path Major set out in Maastricht instead I think that we would still be in the EU, with the vast majority (if not all the fanatics) quite content with our half way house.
And that would also be Blair and Brown who were democratically elected to govern the UK according to their political philosophy.
No-one (sane) is disputing that Brown had the legal right to do what he did. It's just that, if he wanted us to remain part of the EU, what he did was very bad strategy, because it essentially forced the electorate to demand an in-out referendum to settle the matter, and therefore he takes a large share of the blame for why we left.
I agree that if Brown had followed through, allowed the referendum on Lisbon, and then refused to sign it after we voted No by (say) 65:35, we would still be in the EU. Unless of course, the EU had found another way to enact it anyway, and then we would have also left by now, having spotted that they don't actually care what we think.
Did the electorate really demand an in-out referendum, as you claim? I think that may be a bit of myth. Despite efforts in the media to ramp up hatred of the EU, my recollection is that prior to around 2015 the electorate wasn't that interested in the EU - although they did have concerns about immigration.
But the referendum was primarily about the Tory Party, and the threat to its right flank from UKIP, wasn't it? That's the boil that Cameron was seeking, and failed, to lance.
The elctorate wanted a chance to say no to the federalisation ratchet and ever closer union. Because we were denied the chance over Maastricht, the Constitution and Lisbon, the in/out vote was the only option.
Wearing Captain Hindsight’s glasses, it didn’t need to be an in out referendum, that made for a campaign very poor at educating the electorate on all the potential options and outcomes. I blame the remainers for this, if the options were known the electorate would have chosen something the remainers didn’t want, the remainers tried to bounce us.
In my opinion, and I am right, if it started with 6 options for type of arrangement and new deal, whittled down in a run off between two, the campaign would have been x100 more educational, and our country in a much better place today.
As one who was a foot soldier in the 1975 campaign, and would have been in the 2016 one, if I could have found anywhere to volunteer, I'm of the opinion that Remain went on the back foot early and never recovered. That wasn't the case in 1975. Almost no-one asked Leave what they meant by Leave, and when they did the answers were mixed.
I think you are saying I am right?
Is it fair to say 75 and 2016 are not the same thing, Oldie? Or the difference should be recognised. How undemocratic surrendering power to EEC was an issue in the 70’s campaign, but EU and questions of federalism and single currency didn’t really take off till the 90’s. So the referendums should have been about two different outcomes (not one, Europe) the discussions should have been different? In fact in 2016 it was no longer a in out question - the smart answer would have been to be guided by the electorate on the type of relationship we wanted with EU for time being - because even out we have a relationship and trade deal with them, only one that’s beginning to look a bit cobbled together in bad faith. And being out, UK still remains in the European social model, do brexiteers have any mandate from the people to move us away from the European model? So much of the 2016 leave campaign seemed to imply we wouldn’t?
It occurs to me that Starmer pressing for a windfall tax on the gas and oil industry is not going to win friends in Scotland when even the SNP oppose it and it is vital to Scotland's economy
Even though the SNP oppose it, not all Scots work in the oil and gas industry, and Scots are being hit harder by energy costs, due to the colder weather than other parts of the UK. I would suspect the majority of Scots will be in favour of a windfall tax.
And the SNP want to shut down the Oil and Gas industry anyway so why woukd they oppose taxing them more in the meantime?
It occurs to me that Starmer pressing for a windfall tax on the gas and oil industry is not going to win friends in Scotland when even the SNP oppose it and it is vital to Scotland's economy
Even though the SNP oppose it, not all Scots work in the oil and gas industry, and Scots are being hit harder by energy costs, due to the colder weather than other parts of the UK. I would suspect the majority of Scots will be in favour of a windfall tax.
And the SNP want to shut down the Oil and Gas industry anyway so why woukd they oppose taxing them more in the meantime?
I'm going to regret this as the Nats descend but WTF do they think their tax revenue is going to come from without oil and gas?
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
I think the response to that is you cannot be a rule maker and then break your own rules
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
If he'd issued recent regulations reducing speeding limits to 20mph for everyone in the country? Yes.
Oh, I'm sorry, you were asking specifically if we would expect BJ to resign? Hell no.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
He's hoping time dilutes the poison.
It might. This is now being dragged out so long it is in danger of being filed, mentally, by half the population, into OMG JUST SHUT UP I DON”T CARE ANY MORE, and that in turn might lead to a slow uptick in Tory fortunes as everyone sighs and moves on
If Dom C has clinching material he needs to release it now, I suggest, or the moment will be gone. It may already be gone
Also, one has to ask what exactly can be worse than anything we have seen? I know Boris is a bit of a lad but I seriously doubt we are going to see photos of him frotting Dilyn the Dog in a Santa hat while doing poppers with 300 topless neo-Fascist Finnish interns, it will just be more of the same slightly-sad-Xmas-party crap
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
I think the response to that is you cannot be a rule maker and then break your own rules
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
A good one, strong questions from the opposition benches - Davey on fraudulent crime figures given to the house, BlackFord on Nurses pay being cut by government, this is going to,hurt. Tory front and back benches looking subdued and pensive whilst PM reminded everyone we were first country to unlock from covid and have best growth figures in G7, as his answer to just about everything
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
I believe they need to wait for the Met enquiry and Gray to report before making a decision on whether that is Boris Johnson or someone who looks a little like Boris Johnson in the picture.
I can't help noticing that there's an 'e' missing off the end of the word on the water bottle on the table in the photo.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
If he'd issued recent regulations reducing speeding limits to 20mph for everyone in the country? Yes.
Oh, I'm sorry, you were asking specifically if we would expect BJ to resign? Hell no.
Thing is because the pandemic is so fresh (and such fresh horror) in our minds we tend to magnify its related elements. There are plenty of times the speed limit changes all over the country on different roads. And arguably if Boris did transgress one of them there would likely be a clamour of support for him because "they are changing all the time".
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
I think the response to that is you cannot be a rule maker and then break your own rules
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
Did he not set the parking laws?
I do not think it is remotely comparable and certainly not in the court of public opinion
"Australia’s largest pension fund to pour £23bn into UK and Europe"
Much more, per capita, is going into the UK than the EU
They are increasing UK investment by 114%, and EU investment by 122%. So a slight rebalance towards EU funds in a landscape of overall increased investment (as it says in the article, this means they are maintaining the overall level of investment in the region relative to others).
I read the same thing. Not wanting to rain on Leon's parade I thought it impolite to mention it " For those who can't be bothered to read Leon's Bullshit here's the quote from the article "
Australia’s largest pension scheme plans to invest £23bn in the UK and Europe over the next five years as it joins other global mega funds pushing further into private markets for returns.
AustralianSuper, which manages A$244bn (£128bn) on behalf of 2.5mn members, expects to more than double its UK assets from £7bn currently to more than £15bn by 2026. The superannuation fund manager is planning to increase its investment in Europe from £12.6bn to £28bn over the same period",
What part of Leon's quote is "bullshit"? The figure (23bn) is right, and so is the per capita stat.
The "bullshit" is using a meaningless statistic ("per capita" - a measure that has no sense in this context), to try to shoe-horn in a point, when the announcement shows that they are marginally rebalancing their *existing* investment *away* from the UK to the EU (a tiny amouint) while increasing the overall level of investment in both.
Why does it have no sense in this context? If they had invested the same amount of money in, say Liechtenstein, as in the entire EU, don't you think that would have been viewed a win for Liechtenstein?
A "win" in the sense that they were increasing overall levels of investment? Of course. "Over someone else"? Not really, no.
It is all relative the existing investment portfolio. If they were *already* heavily invested in Lichtenstein and decided to rebalance away from Lichtenstein a little and towards the EU, then that is a win for everyone in the region (overall increased investment), but a nod towards the fact that there may be some increased risk in Lichtenstein (slightly lower overall in the balance of things).
I don't see what information the "per capita" number gives you?
I suppose the better number to use would have been as a fraction of the size of the economy, but then the point would have still been the same. At some level comparing absolute amounts is meaningless, 1bn would represent a much larger investment to a very small country than a very big one.
It's definitely fair to say that we continue to outperform the EU average in terms of attracting inward investment, even if that outperformance is slightly declining.
"2021 was a record year of investment and growth for the European tech and venture ecosystem, and for the UK in particular. Building on the last five years of consecutive growth, the total amount of capital invested into European tech reached a staggering US$100B, according to Atomico’s 2021 State of European Tech (SoET) report. Our London office alone contributed to US$12B of that market.
"Data from the SoET report shows the strength of the UK as a driving force behind this thriving venture ecosystem."
I've just done a quick google about the London economy. Quietly, behind Covid and associated chaos, it is picking up speed in multiple ways
This is the real challenge of levelling up. London is not standing still, it is the most dynamic tech, particularly fintech, centre in Europe by an increasing distance. How do the north and Scotland hold onto their investments and talent in the face of such a behemoth? A few railways and roads are certainly not going to do it. They simply facilitate the departure of the young, ambitious and talented.
Very true. London had a critical mass of talent, money, liquidity, culture, universities, rich folk and the rest before Brexit, and it still has that critical mass now
"Levelling up" is going to be hard for anyone, and I do believe this government - for all its many terrible flaws - is having a sincere go at it
I don't know what you're basing that belief on. The government can’t 'level up' the country – it’s nonsensical - it can only level, ie help those with less at the expense of those with more. It’s what we badly need but no Tory government, let alone this one, is going to seriously try and do it. So it’s just a slogan like ‘Brexit Opportunities’ is. Slogans are this government’s specialist area. They are genuinely good at coining them – and note how each one is now getting its own ministry. We have a Minister for Leveling Up and we have a Minister for Brexit Opportunities. Next, we’ll see Nadhim Zahawi rebranded as the Minister for Great Schools For All Our Kids and Rishi Sunak will no longer be the Chancellor of the Exchequer, he’ll be the Secretary of State for Low Taxes and Shrewd Spending. It’s very cunning and also very post-truth and sinister. Straight out of Orwell.
It occurs to me that Starmer pressing for a windfall tax on the gas and oil industry is not going to win friends in Scotland when even the SNP oppose it and it is vital to Scotland's economy
Even though the SNP oppose it, not all Scots work in the oil and gas industry, and Scots are being hit harder by energy costs, due to the colder weather than other parts of the UK. I would suspect the majority of Scots will be in favour of a windfall tax.
And the SNP want to shut down the Oil and Gas industry anyway so why woukd they oppose taxing them more in the meantime?
I'm going to regret this as the Nats descend but WTF do they think their tax revenue is going to come from without oil and gas?
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
I believe they need to wait for the Met enquiry and Gray to report before making a decision on whether that is Boris Johnson or someone who looks a little like Boris Johnson in the picture.
I can't help noticing that there's an 'e' missing off the end of the word on the water bottle on the table in the photo.
I think it's hand sanitiser, and it's an H not an R... 🙂
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
I think the response to that is you cannot be a rule maker and then break your own rules
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
Bozo is proving that you can be a rule maker and then break your own rules. Especially when no-one is brave enough to deal with you...
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
He's never been a cabinet minister. Closest he came was as Chief Whip 2015-2016. Not tempted.
You weren’t tempted by my large bet on Libdems in North Shropshire as I recall 🙂
With the new party photo - and after Boris’ so called relaunch - how long will it take MPs to realise this stuff never stops coming out?
He’ll reshuffle and relaunch, something new appears and we’re back to it. It is constant
Do you genuinely think that the picture shows a party?
1. No, it doesn't look like a party to me either. 2. It does, however, look like people breaking the very strict lockdown and mixing rules that were in place at the time. 3. And unless I'm mistaken, the person who imposed those rules on the rest of us is present.
It's almost as if the covid crisis coming to an end might not be too good for the government.
Before I'm accused of being anti-Johnson you might apply the same to the devolved government and foreign ones too.
Yes, I wonder what the End of Covid (Deus Vult) will do to, say, Sturgeon’s ratings?
She cannot resist gravity FOREVER, she’s done amazingly well so far, and she has been helped by being seen as the calm Scottish leader who is more cautious than the mad Tory English, and by those daily Covid pressers.
Ditto Drakeford, of course
Take away all that and the Scots might focus on the Scottish economy and health system and schools, and her fundamentalists might notice the lack of any actual referendum
"Australia’s largest pension fund to pour £23bn into UK and Europe"
Much more, per capita, is going into the UK than the EU
They are increasing UK investment by 114%, and EU investment by 122%. So a slight rebalance towards EU funds in a landscape of overall increased investment (as it says in the article, this means they are maintaining the overall level of investment in the region relative to others).
I read the same thing. Not wanting to rain on Leon's parade I thought it impolite to mention it " For those who can't be bothered to read Leon's Bullshit here's the quote from the article "
Australia’s largest pension scheme plans to invest £23bn in the UK and Europe over the next five years as it joins other global mega funds pushing further into private markets for returns.
AustralianSuper, which manages A$244bn (£128bn) on behalf of 2.5mn members, expects to more than double its UK assets from £7bn currently to more than £15bn by 2026. The superannuation fund manager is planning to increase its investment in Europe from £12.6bn to £28bn over the same period",
What part of Leon's quote is "bullshit"? The figure (23bn) is right, and so is the per capita stat.
The "bullshit" is using a meaningless statistic ("per capita" - a measure that has no sense in this context), to try to shoe-horn in a point, when the announcement shows that they are marginally rebalancing their *existing* investment *away* from the UK to the EU (a tiny amouint) while increasing the overall level of investment in both.
Why does it have no sense in this context? If they had invested the same amount of money in, say Liechtenstein, as in the entire EU, don't you think that would have been viewed a win for Liechtenstein?
A "win" in the sense that they were increasing overall levels of investment? Of course. "Over someone else"? Not really, no.
It is all relative the existing investment portfolio. If they were *already* heavily invested in Lichtenstein and decided to rebalance away from Lichtenstein a little and towards the EU, then that is a win for everyone in the region (overall increased investment), but a nod towards the fact that there may be some increased risk in Lichtenstein (slightly lower overall in the balance of things).
I don't see what information the "per capita" number gives you?
I suppose the better number to use would have been as a fraction of the size of the economy, but then the point would have still been the same. At some level comparing absolute amounts is meaningless, 1bn would represent a much larger investment to a very small country than a very big one.
It's definitely fair to say that we continue to outperform the EU average in terms of attracting inward investment, even if that outperformance is slightly declining.
"2021 was a record year of investment and growth for the European tech and venture ecosystem, and for the UK in particular. Building on the last five years of consecutive growth, the total amount of capital invested into European tech reached a staggering US$100B, according to Atomico’s 2021 State of European Tech (SoET) report. Our London office alone contributed to US$12B of that market.
"Data from the SoET report shows the strength of the UK as a driving force behind this thriving venture ecosystem."
I've just done a quick google about the London economy. Quietly, behind Covid and associated chaos, it is picking up speed in multiple ways
This is the real challenge of levelling up. London is not standing still, it is the most dynamic tech, particularly fintech, centre in Europe by an increasing distance. How do the north and Scotland hold onto their investments and talent in the face of such a behemoth? A few railways and roads are certainly not going to do it. They simply facilitate the departure of the young, ambitious and talented.
Very true. London had a critical mass of talent, money, liquidity, culture, universities, rich folk and the rest before Brexit, and it still has that critical mass now
"Levelling up" is going to be hard for anyone, and I do believe this government - for all its many terrible flaws - is having a sincere go at it
I don't know what you're basing that belief on. The government can’t 'level up' the country – it’s nonsensical - it can only level, ie help those with less at the expense of those with more. It’s what we badly need but no Tory government, let alone this one, is going to seriously try and do it. So it’s just a slogan like ‘Brexit Opportunities’ is. Slogans are this government’s specialist area. They are genuinely good at coining them – and note how each one is now getting its own ministry. We have a Minister for Leveling Up and we have a Minister for Brexit Opportunities. Next, we’ll see Nadhim Zahawi rebranded as the Minister for Great Schools For All Our Kids and Rishi Sunak will no longer be the Chancellor of the Exchequer, he’ll be the Secretary of State for Low Taxes and Shrewd Spending. It’s very cunning and also very post-truth and sinister. Straight out of Orwell.
"The government can’t 'level up' the country" - that's what the existing transfer payments from the richer regions of the country to the poorer regions are explicitly designed to do.
Basic economic spending theory for single currency areas.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
If he'd issued recent regulations reducing speeding limits to 20mph for everyone in the country? Yes.
Oh, I'm sorry, you were asking specifically if we would expect BJ to resign? Hell no.
A good one, strong questions from the opposition benches - Davey on fraudulent crime figures given to the house, BlackFord on Nurses pay being cut by government, this is going to,hurt. Tory front and back benches looking subdued and pensive whilst PM reminded everyone we were first country to unlock from covid and have best growth figures in G7, as his answer to just about everything
The conservative party is imploding in full view and as I said yesterday I am not going to keep beating myself up over Boris going if his mps are content to allow it to continue
They and the party will pay a huge price and hand Starmer the keys to no 10, with a red ribbon tied on it
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
He's hoping time dilutes the poison.
It might. This is now being dragged out so long it is in danger of being filed, mentally, by half the population, into OMG JUST SHUT UP I DON”T CARE ANY MORE, and that in turn might lead to a slow uptick in Tory fortunes as everyone sighs and moves on
If Dom C has clinching material he needs to release it now, I suggest, or the moment will be gone. It may already be gone
Also, one has to ask what exactly can be worse than anything we have seen? I know Boris is a bit of a lad but I seriously doubt we are going to see photos of him frotting Dilyn the Dog in a Santa hat while doing poppers with 300 topless neo-Fascist Finnish interns, it will just be more of the same slightly-sad-Xmas-party crap
Publish or be damned. And get a wiggle on
What could be worse?
We'd find out that Johnson isn't paid directly for being PM, but via a service company so that he can avoid NI.
Although the word is that he's too lazy to arrange such tax avoidance arrangements.
Whilst the environment is well below the other 2, it's notable that it is in the top 3 of issues being quoted. Interesting also how it grew in the weeks leading up to CoP26. 10 years ago that would never have been the case. It would be floundering down below crime, immigration and foreign policy.
I don't think the main 2 parties have fully clocked on to how much more salient it is as a topic now. I don't think it's all about climate change either. People really notice plastic waste in the environment now, and they also worry loudly about polluted watercourses and seas, air pollution, light and noise pollution, biodiversity and habitat loss.
Unless you're in a situation where making ends meet and feeding the household are a struggle, there are few things that have a bigger impact on happiness and wellbeing than the state of your surroundings and the health of the air and water around you.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
If he'd issued recent regulations reducing speeding limits to 20mph for everyone in the country? Yes.
Oh, I'm sorry, you were asking specifically if we would expect BJ to resign? Hell no.
So long as a legislator has the same penalties applied as everyone else then I can't see there's a resigning issue.
It's the getting away with it (or the thoughts that you might) that's the issue. I doubt many people have reported themselves for speeding fines.
It's a huge political issue of course.
Boris can just about survive penalties at the very low end. However he'll be hanging on in an undignified way. Far, far better - for him and for us - if he chooses a way out now.
"Australia’s largest pension fund to pour £23bn into UK and Europe"
Much more, per capita, is going into the UK than the EU
They are increasing UK investment by 114%, and EU investment by 122%. So a slight rebalance towards EU funds in a landscape of overall increased investment (as it says in the article, this means they are maintaining the overall level of investment in the region relative to others).
I read the same thing. Not wanting to rain on Leon's parade I thought it impolite to mention it " For those who can't be bothered to read Leon's Bullshit here's the quote from the article "
Australia’s largest pension scheme plans to invest £23bn in the UK and Europe over the next five years as it joins other global mega funds pushing further into private markets for returns.
AustralianSuper, which manages A$244bn (£128bn) on behalf of 2.5mn members, expects to more than double its UK assets from £7bn currently to more than £15bn by 2026. The superannuation fund manager is planning to increase its investment in Europe from £12.6bn to £28bn over the same period",
What part of Leon's quote is "bullshit"? The figure (23bn) is right, and so is the per capita stat.
The "bullshit" is using a meaningless statistic ("per capita" - a measure that has no sense in this context), to try to shoe-horn in a point, when the announcement shows that they are marginally rebalancing their *existing* investment *away* from the UK to the EU (a tiny amouint) while increasing the overall level of investment in both.
Why does it have no sense in this context? If they had invested the same amount of money in, say Liechtenstein, as in the entire EU, don't you think that would have been viewed a win for Liechtenstein?
A "win" in the sense that they were increasing overall levels of investment? Of course. "Over someone else"? Not really, no.
It is all relative the existing investment portfolio. If they were *already* heavily invested in Lichtenstein and decided to rebalance away from Lichtenstein a little and towards the EU, then that is a win for everyone in the region (overall increased investment), but a nod towards the fact that there may be some increased risk in Lichtenstein (slightly lower overall in the balance of things).
I don't see what information the "per capita" number gives you?
I suppose the better number to use would have been as a fraction of the size of the economy, but then the point would have still been the same. At some level comparing absolute amounts is meaningless, 1bn would represent a much larger investment to a very small country than a very big one.
It's definitely fair to say that we continue to outperform the EU average in terms of attracting inward investment, even if that outperformance is slightly declining.
"2021 was a record year of investment and growth for the European tech and venture ecosystem, and for the UK in particular. Building on the last five years of consecutive growth, the total amount of capital invested into European tech reached a staggering US$100B, according to Atomico’s 2021 State of European Tech (SoET) report. Our London office alone contributed to US$12B of that market.
"Data from the SoET report shows the strength of the UK as a driving force behind this thriving venture ecosystem."
I've just done a quick google about the London economy. Quietly, behind Covid and associated chaos, it is picking up speed in multiple ways
This is the real challenge of levelling up. London is not standing still, it is the most dynamic tech, particularly fintech, centre in Europe by an increasing distance. How do the north and Scotland hold onto their investments and talent in the face of such a behemoth? A few railways and roads are certainly not going to do it. They simply facilitate the departure of the young, ambitious and talented.
Very true. London had a critical mass of talent, money, liquidity, culture, universities, rich folk and the rest before Brexit, and it still has that critical mass now
"Levelling up" is going to be hard for anyone, and I do believe this government - for all its many terrible flaws - is having a sincere go at it
I don't know what you're basing that belief on. The government can’t 'level up' the country – it’s nonsensical - it can only level, ie help those with less at the expense of those with more. It’s what we badly need but no Tory government, let alone this one, is going to seriously try and do it. So it’s just a slogan like ‘Brexit Opportunities’ is. Slogans are this government’s specialist area. They are genuinely good at coining them – and note how each one is now getting its own ministry. We have a Minister for Leveling Up and we have a Minister for Brexit Opportunities. Next, we’ll see Nadhim Zahawi rebranded as the Minister for Great Schools For All Our Kids and Rishi Sunak will no longer be the Chancellor of the Exchequer, he’ll be the Secretary of State for Low Taxes and Shrewd Spending. It’s very cunning and also very post-truth and sinister. Straight out of Orwell.
i agree much of this is bollocks. Minister for Brexit Opportunities my arse. It’s like the Hari Krishna Party having a Minister for Global Peace
There will be Brexit positives, but it doesn’t need a minister to “make them happen”
However I saw Gove being interviewed quite intensely on his Levelling Up Agenda, and he was pretty plausible. And I’ve read some close analyses of it, not by people always friendly to the Tories. It is not entirely vacuous. There are proper aspirations and genuine changes
Don’t ask me what they are tho, I am about to order my 3rd martini. They make them really well here*
If Conservative MPs don’t oust Boris Johnson after this then I don’t think they ever will.
I believe they need to wait for the Met enquiry and Gray to report before making a decision on whether that is Boris Johnson or someone who looks a little like Boris Johnson in the picture.
I can't help noticing that there's an 'e' missing off the end of the word on the water bottle on the table in the photo.
I think it's hand sanitiser, and it's an H not an R... 🙂
Not sure my whimsical post merited a response. But thanks for reminding me that I need to collect some new glasses this afternoon.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
I think the strategy is clear: destroy him very slowly until he looks so completely weak and ineffectual that even right wing believers in Brexit, think that he should go. It is clearly working. Unedifying sure, but he doesnt look in any better position today than he did last week. My prediction of VONC w/c 21st Feb looking quite likely.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
He's hoping time dilutes the poison.
It might. This is now being dragged out so long it is in danger of being filed, mentally, by half the population, into OMG JUST SHUT UP I DON”T CARE ANY MORE, and that in turn might lead to a slow uptick in Tory fortunes as everyone sighs and moves on
If Dom C has clinching material he needs to release it now, I suggest, or the moment will be gone. It may already be gone
Also, one has to ask what exactly can be worse than anything we have seen? I know Boris is a bit of a lad but I seriously doubt we are going to see photos of him frotting Dilyn the Dog in a Santa hat while doing poppers with 300 topless neo-Fascist Finnish interns, it will just be more of the same slightly-sad-Xmas-party crap
Publish or be damned. And get a wiggle on
What could be worse?
We'd find out that Johnson isn't paid directly for being PM, but via a service company so that he can avoid NI.
Although the word is that he's too lazy to arrange such tax avoidance arrangements.
If he was working only for the government, he’d be judged to be inside IR35 and have to pay two two lots of NI.
Yes, he published his tax return when challenged by Ken Livingstone in the mayor race - Boris was working as an MP and on the side as a sole trader, paying the full 40% income tax on every penny he was paid for journalist or speaking work. Ken, on the other hand, had a limited company and generous expenses.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
Cor blimey that's a lot of money to invest in anything as fallible as human judgment. I was greatly cheered yesterday to receive a note from Betfair that their minimum stake had been reduced from £2 to £1. That's twice as much fun watching my money disappear half as quickly.
I miss typed - I have placed a mere lady down. Sorry. 😔. Which is a small bet from me. But I placed larger amount on Javid 14-1 last year so I have two bets in same race. Though I havn’t backed Harper hunch with big money, I still stand by my analysis he seems to be chosen front man for the group who backed Boris, will be a runner whenever it comes, and could get on a roll.
You really do get the impression thie party story has run out of legs. Everyone knows he lied about it. It is a negative on the balance sheet. But how big a negative will vary according to taste. No doubt it will have a revival at some point when he lies about something else. Right now Boris is damaged but he is regaining control by the day.
I’ve just put a pony on Mark Harper as next Tory leader. Analysis. He clearly already has the nod as the backbench candidate of the right (those people who bragged couple of weeks back they installed Boris Johnson) this gives him foundation of a lot of MP support at the start to boost his profile and ensure he stays in safely for a few rounds. Meanwhile, he comes across very well, people who haven’t listened to him much before will be impressed by his communication skills and politeness, yet firm in conviction like Lady Thatcher, as he uses the oxygen of publicity of the election platforms. If he gets to the last two I think he beats everyone except Sunak, because his platform is so perfect in tune with the Conservative membership and their favourite newspapers.
What odds did you get?
40-1 on my PaddyPower account.
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
Yes and no. He will publish everything he is given. Not that he will publish everything there is to publish. So they can do a heavily redacted report, he will publish and say "thats yer lot plebs"
I expect the key is if he receives a FPN and if FPNs are issued for the flat party
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Would you expect him to resign if he got a speeding ticket, Big G?
I think the response to that is you cannot be a rule maker and then break your own rules
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
Did he not set the parking laws?
Lol - You are stood on a valid pinhead there but context is all in this matter as you well know.
New photo of the PM at a party... and... is that a bin bag covering the security camera?
I cannot say I have ever been to a party with no music, 3 people and 1 person looking at his laptop.
That just looks like Christmas in any office
I'm not sure what the big deal is with the Downing Street stuff, at least in terms of people drinking in Downing St. (and presumably Sunak is implicated too?), I think we would need to see pictures of Johnson attending a large party outside of Downing St.
Whilst the environment is well below the other 2, it's notable that it is in the top 3 of issues being quoted. Interesting also how it grew in the weeks leading up to CoP26. 10 years ago that would never have been the case. It would be floundering down below crime, immigration and foreign policy.
I don't think the main 2 parties have fully clocked on to how much more salient it is as a topic now. I don't think it's all about climate change either. People really notice plastic waste in the environment now, and they also worry loudly about polluted watercourses and seas, air pollution, light and noise pollution, biodiversity and habitat loss.
Unless you're in a situation where making ends meet and feeding the household are a struggle, there are few things that have a bigger impact on happiness and wellbeing than the state of your surroundings and the health of the air and water around you.
Sometimes particularly when you're struggling to make ends meet the local environment can be particularly important. If you can't afford much in the way of toys/entertainment for children at home, then you're more likely to want to take the kids out to the local park for a bit of respite.
You don't have the finances to curate a safe space for your children away from all the crap dumped in your local area. Public, communal areas are all the more important, and if they're polluted it's all the more noticeable.
You really do get the impression thie party story has run out of legs. Everyone knows he lied about it. It is a negative on the balance sheet. But how big a negative will vary according to taste. No doubt it will have a revival at some point when he lies about something else. Right now Boris is damaged but he is regaining control by the day.
I don't see him regaining any control. He looks like a (politically) dead man walking.
Partygate is now so bloody boring. Is anyone - literally anyone (apart from @Scott_xP) excited by that latest photo?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
He's hoping time dilutes the poison.
It might. This is now being dragged out so long it is in danger of being filed, mentally, by half the population, into OMG JUST SHUT UP I DON”T CARE ANY MORE, and that in turn might lead to a slow uptick in Tory fortunes as everyone sighs and moves on
If Dom C has clinching material he needs to release it now, I suggest, or the moment will be gone. It may already be gone
Also, one has to ask what exactly can be worse than anything we have seen? I know Boris is a bit of a lad but I seriously doubt we are going to see photos of him frotting Dilyn the Dog in a Santa hat while doing poppers with 300 topless neo-Fascist Finnish interns, it will just be more of the same slightly-sad-Xmas-party crap
Publish or be damned. And get a wiggle on
What could be worse?
We'd find out that Johnson isn't paid directly for being PM, but via a service company so that he can avoid NI.
Although the word is that he's too lazy to arrange such tax avoidance arrangements.
If he was working only for the government, he’d be judged to be inside IR35 and have to pay two two lots of NI.
Yes, he published his tax return when challenged by Ken Livingstone in the mayor race - Boris was working as an MP and on the side as a sole trader, paying the full 40% income tax on every penny he was paid for journalist or speaking work. Ken, on the other hand, had a limited company and generous expenses.
The interesting one about that was he had set up that structure for paying the full 40% tax on his Telegraph earnings etc *before* the Expense scandal.
He must have paid an extra 7 figures in tax over the years, just to setup an elephant trap for an opponent.
No-one else in politics does this - and it must have been deliberately done with the Telegraph. Since no-one else deliberately pays the 40%, that would have taken special arrangements.
Whilst the environment is well below the other 2, it's notable that it is in the top 3 of issues being quoted. Interesting also how it grew in the weeks leading up to CoP26. 10 years ago that would never have been the case. It would be floundering down below crime, immigration and foreign policy.
I don't think the main 2 parties have fully clocked on to how much more salient it is as a topic now. I don't think it's all about climate change either. People really notice plastic waste in the environment now, and they also worry loudly about polluted watercourses and seas, air pollution, light and noise pollution, biodiversity and habitat loss.
Unless you're in a situation where making ends meet and feeding the household are a struggle, there are few things that have a bigger impact on happiness and wellbeing than the state of your surroundings and the health of the air and water around you.
Sometimes particularly when you're struggling to make ends meet the local environment can be particularly important. If you can't afford much in the way of toys/entertainment for children at home, then you're more likely to want to take the kids out to the local park for a bit of respite.
You don't have the finances to curate a safe space for your children away from all the crap dumped in your local area. Public, communal areas are all the more important, and if they're polluted it's all the more noticeable.
That's a good point. Your kids are also likely to be most at risk of asthma from local air pollution. Particularly around here where there's a mix of wealthy and very poor in close proximity. The poorest units are generally close to the traffic clogged main roads while the more expensive housing is tucked away on leafy avenues.
Comments
Does raise a couple of questions doesn’t it? 🙂
So, either the police have expanded their investigation and not told anyone. Or he lied to the house in response of Fabian Hamilton's question. And then lied to the house again in response to the final question calling him back to Fabian Hamilton's question.
The most obvious ruse in a British STV system would be to have urban constituencies with more members (say a single Edinburgh constituency of 5 or 6 MPs) and have rural constituencies with fewer members (say 3 MPs) so that they're not geographically too big.
Makes it easier for the Tories to pick up seats in urban areas, but harder for Labour to do the same in rural areas.
Pretty marginal impact though.
Did you notice Big G how Sunak was laughing when called loan shark chancellor - imagine a Conservative leader with a sense of humour, rather than one all red mist and bluster!
It's a meta critique of Buddhism - you go through all those cycles of death and rebirth just to... live out the rest of your life. But in a good way.
He’ll reshuffle and relaunch, something new appears and we’re back to it. It is constant
He's only got the job because he was prepared to be the sub to Dom.
If Rishi was awesome he would have ousted Boris by now, so there's two possibilities, he's either shit at politics, or he's in the pictures.
What seems very clear is that he has just lied to the house twice on a single issue in a single session. Has been hauled over the coals for continuing to say crime is falling - a lie. The official statisticians have remonstrated against his lies. He's still lying about it.
So how can anyone trust him and his government to tackle the cost of living crisis?
At the moment Dom thinks he will be back if Sunak gets the gig. Not so sure.
Enough.
So everybody Boris Johnson said there were no parties and more evidence emerges that there were parties people know he's lying.
That impacts every time he says 'Brexit is a success' people now assume he's lying.
If Brexiteeers think Boris Johnson is damaging the Brexit project then he's out.
Actually, in a couple of months both those might be true.
Boris saying Brexit is a success simply reinforces that they haven't got the Brexit they wanted - I suspect the various lies (no party, Brexit being great) are getting to the point where they reinforce each other.
With that you get a shite wine fridge and some lager?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1491385298777153536 https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1491393788253974528/photo/1
Is that what it boils down to?
Right now the public think Boris Johnson lies every time he opens his mouth, so remove him, it won't damage the Brexit project.
So although attacking Sunak could be because the opposition fear him, it could just be that they reckon that Johnson isn't worth attacking any more. And everyone expects Sunak to inherit the top job without really exerting himself.
Including Sunak himself.
But it gives an opportunity for plotters to gather...
I have learnt from this site I could be getting better political odds on smarkets which I haven’t set up yet. I set up PaddyPower 8 years ago because I was told they were best for horse racing.
Yet again Harper, in his usual bench like unofficial leader of back bench opposition, got a question to the PM today.
Was that actually a straight answer from Boris to publish everything from Sue Gray the moment he got it?
The damage is done. Boris needs to go. But hurry up this is arse-achingly dull, now
tia
1. Economy: 57% (+12 from 31st Jan)
2. Health: 42% (-4)
3. The environment: 27% (-1)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2022/02/09/public-criticism-conservatives-handling-economy-co?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=cons_handling_economy https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1491403206806876161/photo/1
The sky melts from dusty orange to a deep deep blue, languid music drifts across the Laccadive Sea, the coconut palms rustle in the tenderest breeze
A child plays on the ocean shore, but far away, too far away to hear. The waiter sets down the second dry martini, and turns to look at nothing at all. Candle-light glows
All Britons
Well: 26% (-6 from 31st Jan)
Badly: 64% (+7)
Con voters
Well: 51% (-8)
Badly: 42% (+8)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2022/02/09/public-criticism-conservatives-handling-economy-co?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=cons_handling_economy https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1491403212586291200/photo/1
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2022/02/09/public-criticism-conservatives-handling-economy-co?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=cons_handling_economy https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1491403223722524673/photo/1
There is some corner of some foreign bar, that has a massive unpaid bill
I just do not see him surviving the minute a FPN has been issued and leaked
Then on to more pressing matters like inflation and falling real wages.
Is it fair to say 75 and 2016 are not the same thing, Oldie? Or the difference should be recognised. How undemocratic surrendering power to EEC was an issue in the 70’s campaign, but EU and questions of federalism and single currency didn’t really take off till the 90’s. So the referendums should have been about two different outcomes (not one, Europe) the discussions should have been different? In fact in 2016 it was no longer a in out question - the smart answer would have been to be guided by the electorate on the type of relationship we wanted with EU for time being - because even out we have a relationship and trade deal with them, only one that’s beginning to look a bit cobbled together in bad faith. And being out, UK still remains in the European social model, do brexiteers have any mandate from the people to move us away from the European model? So much of the 2016 leave campaign seemed to imply we wouldn’t?
Fraud not being a crime these days and all.
It also needs to be viewed in the context of the restrictions on everyone at the time and the fury over the disregard and respect for people
Oh, I'm sorry, you were asking specifically if we would expect BJ to resign? Hell no.
If Dom C has clinching material he needs to release it now, I suggest, or the moment will be gone. It may already be gone
Also, one has to ask what exactly can be worse than anything we have seen? I know Boris is a bit of a lad but I seriously doubt we are going to see photos of him frotting Dilyn the Dog in a Santa hat while doing poppers with 300 topless neo-Fascist Finnish interns, it will just be more of the same slightly-sad-Xmas-party crap
Publish or be damned. And get a wiggle on
Much better than I remembered. Fripp's guitar!
Before I'm accused of being anti-Johnson you might apply the same to the devolved government and foreign ones too.
Sound familiar?
Your other point is well made, obvs.
2. It does, however, look like people breaking the very strict lockdown and mixing rules that were in place at the time.
3. And unless I'm mistaken, the person who imposed those rules on the rest of us is present.
She cannot resist gravity FOREVER, she’s done amazingly well so far, and she has been helped by being seen as the calm Scottish leader who is more cautious than the mad Tory English, and by those daily Covid pressers.
Ditto Drakeford, of course
Take away all that and the Scots might focus on the Scottish economy and health system and schools, and her fundamentalists might notice the lack of any actual referendum
Basic economic spending theory for single currency areas.
They and the party will pay a huge price and hand Starmer the keys to no 10, with a red ribbon tied on it
We'd find out that Johnson isn't paid directly for being PM, but via a service company so that he can avoid NI.
Although the word is that he's too lazy to arrange such tax avoidance arrangements.
I don't think the main 2 parties have fully clocked on to how much more salient it is as a topic now. I don't think it's all about climate change either. People really notice plastic waste in the environment now, and they also worry loudly about polluted watercourses and seas, air pollution, light and noise pollution, biodiversity and habitat loss.
Unless you're in a situation where making ends meet and feeding the household are a struggle, there are few things that have a bigger impact on happiness and wellbeing than the state of your surroundings and the health of the air and water around you.
It's the getting away with it (or the thoughts that you might) that's the issue. I doubt many people have reported themselves for speeding fines.
It's a huge political issue of course.
Boris can just about survive penalties at the very low end. However he'll be hanging on in an undignified way. Far, far better - for him and for us - if he chooses a way out now.
There will be Brexit positives, but it doesn’t need a minister to “make them happen”
However I saw Gove being interviewed quite intensely on his Levelling Up Agenda, and he was pretty plausible. And I’ve read some close analyses of it, not by people always friendly to the Tories. It is not entirely vacuous. There are proper aspirations and genuine changes
Don’t ask me what they are tho, I am about to order my 3rd martini. They make them really well here*
*The Galle Face Hotel
https://gallefacehotel.com
Yes, he published his tax return when challenged by Ken Livingstone in the mayor race - Boris was working as an MP and on the side as a sole trader, paying the full 40% income tax on every penny he was paid for journalist or speaking work. Ken, on the other hand, had a limited company and generous expenses.
You really do get the impression thie party story has run out of legs. Everyone knows he lied about it. It is a negative on the balance sheet. But how big a negative will vary according to taste. No doubt it will have a revival at some point when he lies about something else. Right now Boris is damaged but he is regaining control by the day.
You don't have the finances to curate a safe space for your children away from all the crap dumped in your local area. Public, communal areas are all the more important, and if they're polluted it's all the more noticeable.
He must have paid an extra 7 figures in tax over the years, just to setup an elephant trap for an opponent.
No-one else in politics does this - and it must have been deliberately done with the Telegraph. Since no-one else deliberately pays the 40%, that would have taken special arrangements.