Like many PBers I am completely unable to forecast what is going to happen to Boris Johnson in the next week or so. This is currently the biggest UK political betting market and unusually for me I have not been confident enough to have a punt either way.
Comments
I could potentially have a hot date with Christina Hendricks this weekend but it is unlikely to happen.
This gives me hope.
…. "For the first time, our Armed Forces, in particular the Navy, will receive real weapons, missiles, which will finally allow us to oppose something to the Russians in the Black and Azov Seas", said Vadym Prystaiko in an interview with Radio Novoye Vremya.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1491336415367798785?s=21
I don't think John Major has any particular influence anymore.
I agree with this, although I also note he's given money to Labour more recently, too.
What seems to have over the last few weeks is that the short-term ambitions of both the Prime Minister and the group of loyalists who most depend on him for their careers, has begun to become fundamentally unmoored from the views and wishes of most of the public, including many Tory voters.
If the Tories don't realise that that's what's happening , they'll a pay a much heavier price for this eventually, I think.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1491339500911759361?s=20&t=Vq0NcP84nbJ4t14M_hSqpA
https://www.ft.com/content/54fc3dcc-3798-4f4f-97de-a4b924ebd68b
(££)
"Australia’s largest pension fund to pour £23bn into UK and Europe"
Much more, per capita, is going into the UK than the EU
The Tories are Raith Rovers, except Raith Rovers realised they'd fcuked up almost immediately.
Tory Rebel Says At Least 30 MPs Have Called For No Confidence Vote In David Cameron.....
....So, how long till the 'magic 46' is reached? A recent YouGov poll for the Sun put the Tories on 29%, 13 points behind Labour. The senior Conservative backbencher told HuffPost UK that the number could reach 46 and force a no confidence vote if "post the party conference [in October], we are still [polling] in the 20s." But the Tory rebel also added a disclaimer: "We are talking about MPs here. Labour MPs walked wide-eyed into defeat with Gordon Brown."
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/31/rebel-mp-tory-david-cameron-confidence-_n_3364562.html
[Boris Johnson's] allies have said he will not resign even if he is fined by police for breaching lockdown rules by attending Downing Street parties.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cabinet-reshuffle-jacob-rees-mogg-given-brexit-job-9ncmd9563
Which sunk.
What seems to have *happened* over the last few weeks, incidentally, it should say there.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/28/john-major-calls-for-commons-vote-on-second-referendum
"Former British prime minister John Major has called for a free vote in parliament on whether to hold a second EU referendum. He is the most senior Conservative yet to attack what he called the government’s “unrealistic” Brexit strategy.
In a speech in London that comes at the lowest point so far in the 18-month withdrawal negotiations, Major argued parliament had a duty to consider the “wellbeing of the people”, as well as the will of the people in the first referendum.
“This must be a decisive vote, in which parliament can accept or reject the final outcome; or send the negotiators back to seek improvements; or order a referendum,” he was due to say according to an advance copy of the speech. “That is what parliamentary sovereignty means.”
“No one can truly know what ‘the will of the people’ may then be. So, let parliament decide. Or put the issue back to the people,” he said."
Let him fuck off back to Huntingdonshire and his deserved obscurity. He has no credibility on anything
(Likewise, I guess many people in the SNP, who knew what Salmond was really like, must have wondered when he would topple over the cliff edge.)
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2022/02/356_323613.html
...Anti-China sentiment among Koreans was stoked by China's economic retaliation against Korea's deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system and Beijing's nationalism initiative known as the Northeast Project aimed at incorporating the histories of other East Asian countries into China's own history.
But the recent controversies surrounding the judgments at the Bejing Olympics coincide with Korea's next presidential election which is just about a month away.
Resentment against China has especially been growing in online communities after short track speedskaters Hwang Dae-heon and Lee June-seo were disqualified in the men's 1,000m semifinals, Monday, for violating regulations during their races. But most Koreans believe such judgments were intentionally made in favor of China and cannot be tolerated....
We will know that the danger has definitively passed for Johnson when we go a week or two without a newspaper dusting off the Graham Brady Letters story.
If that point isn't reached until quite close to the general election then that would seem bad for the Tories.
And if there is one thing that enrages me, it is the people that called for the 2nd vote, without enacting the first. They wanted to cancel democracy, they should grovellingly apologise, be stripped to their vests and y-fronts and pelted with soft rancid eclairs in Leicester Square, then they should slink away from public life forever
There were no free votes or referendum on his precious Maastricht treaty.
And then there was his affair with Edwina Currie contrasted with his 'back to basics' morality drive.
There is simply no escaping this moral logic, and anyone that is still trying is adding risible absurdity to grotesque outrage
Before you say getting Brexit done, keep in mind a clear majority of UK voters think leaving the EU was wrong and a stonking majority of voters in your own country think it's a complete binfire.
I could open my bedroom door and find Olivia Wilde and Jennifer Morrison pillow-fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me.
There are a zillion reasons to dump Boris, and I think he should be dumped, but the opinion of John bloody Major is not one of them
It keeps coming up every time there’s a new HS or Culture Sec, and keeps getting bashed down because it’s completely unworkable, and anyone proposing it doesn’t understand how teenage boys behave.
Great for teaching the next generations about state-level surveillance, VPN, proxy servers, DNS servers and online privacy though.
https://fullfact.org/online/john-major-proroguing/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60316048
"Gillian Keegan: Minister sorry for not ending visit after Covid result"
I think my only criticism would be that if you'e going to do an LFT for a meeting you should organise yourself with enough time to get the result before you start the meeting. If the agreement was that everyone would test before the meeting then she should certainly have made sure she had the result.
Given she was apparently in the meeting when the result came through (no detail, but I guess she swabbed just before meeting and handed swab to a flunkey who then did actual test and then alerted her to the positive) then alerting those present seems sufficient to me, assuming they'd been together for a non-trivial period. There is a degree of increased risk from prolonging potential exposure, but not that much. I think I'd have probably done the same (although I'd have completed the test before the meeting started). The only criticism would be if she'd literally just sat down when the test came in - if her actions made exposure ten times longer than if she'd left straight away then it was a bit daft. If they made it 10% longer then no big deal.
At some point, of course, we need to stop testing, except for contact with high vulnerability individuals.
Also, she's apologised, explained (to an extent) what happened and said she got it wrong. That's probably the end of the matter. Lesson there for Johnson?
An MP gets elected to parliament for 5 years - only after that period can the electors change their minds.
Mere speculation, but: dodgy postal vote spike, dodgy Tory funding, Kuenssberg breaking electoral rules - what’s the chance of the election being voided, hung Parliament returning & this time getting it right: a government of national unity and a second-thoughts EU referendum?
https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1209477694846582784
There's a long term deal to supply patrol vessels etc; it is not clear what capability if any will be delivered in time for the current crisis. It may be the case.
In the next GE campaign, the Conservatives should really use a Grayling quote a day in their campaign to highlight what would happen if the Conservatives lost.
The UK and USA are supplying Ukraine with weapons (short range ATGMs) that will be useful after Ukraine has already lost and are resisting an occupation. They are useless at deterring or defending against a Russian invasion.
Western forces use long range fires to enable decisive maneuvers and the Russians do the opposite. Battles are decided by long range fires which create situations for opportunistic maneuver.
In 2014 the Ukrainians got absolutely hammered by UAV cued and EW supported overlapping long range fires. Nothing that the UK or US are providing helps against EW, UAVs or provides counter-battery fire.
Bozo won't face a VONC until at least Feb 22nd. There is no way any MP is going to support a proxy vote on this unless the 1922 Committee want to do things a way that guarantees a Bozo win.
Whoever said things would happen on the 21st is correct on one level simply because unless things kick off today they can't happen before then.
People have very short memories of what normally happens.
Thats why the local by-election results were so weird last week, what normally happens is the main opposition party makes big gains in its vote share.
I campaigned for Remain but I haven't spent my time since wallowing in the result.
It's so bizarre how obsessed some Brexiteers STILL are with this. What is wrong with you? Do you actually, deep down, know it was wrong or something?
That lovely Captain Tom Moore thing is unravelling at ultra high speed
"The whole of that quote from Captain Tom's daughter is even funnier, she says she was worried about her financial future at the start of the pandemic and then she shoved her dad out in the garden and then, completely unrelated!, they were miraculously fine financially"
https://twitter.com/JoeStephenson96/status/1491029989411606528?s=20&t=Q6JaAlXy_DIKaB6GvnJBOA
"Look, granddad can't have his 100th birthday party"
"I know, let's chuck him out in the garden and make him walk round and round and we'll give him £1 a lap, that will make up for not having a party"
"Yes"
And this:
"Captain Tom charity paid thousands to daughter’s firm set up days before foundation established
"Watchdog opened regulatory compliance case into the Captain Tom Foundation last year"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/captain-tom-foundation-charity-daughter-firm-b2010904.html
Except that BREXIT has happened. What is happening now is the long tail seen after any such massive change in trading/legal structures.
Otherwise holding a second referendum would never be allowed?
That argument was in a Parliament elected after the Brexit vote, so whatever you think of the merits, to call it undemocratic is the usual @Leon hyperbolic nonsense.
Other opinions are available
May has effectively called for the clown to go, and IDS has come pretty close. Maybe somebody should give Cammo and Hague a ring?
I'm not personally in favour of an early revote, and think that the most likely future is a Labour government settling for customs union/EFTA, but there is nothing in the least undemocratic about people who disagree arguing their case even 1 day after losing a vote. Democracy, innit.
All it needs is the recognition that what they don't like is the Head Count voting on anything important. Keep the courts and the coinage. Let the rabble have the rest....
It demonstrated that, where he is only involved to the extent of supporting a capable underling, he can get things done in a way that many other politicians don't manage, even when those politicians appear superficially more capable (because they can talk coherently).
This is essentially what happened with vaccine procurement too.
It's not a great endorsement, I grant you, but the general political standards are not high.
I suspect that Major sublimated his humiliation from that into a hatred of those who had been proven right about how damaging ERM membership was.
If you can't see that this is different from voting for something but it never being implemented before you're told to vote again, then you're beyond help.
I mean, really, as demographic stereotype it would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
I have people on WhatsApp, who believe that the moment that BJ steps down, the Conservative Party *must* reverse BREXIT and join the Euro. Without a vote.... in the Commons!
I suspect most are weary of the constant and continuing battle between leavers and remainers
Can't see it happening mind
I suspect Leon's problem is that he woke up on Referendum Day as a Remainer, turned into a Leaver walking to the polling station, and turned back into a Remainer - and a very panicked one at that - once the result came out the next day.
After working through the stages of grief he's now settled on being a Leaver and with such a flaky record has this continual need to re-justify his polling day change of mind.
The mainstream of the country knows that we left the EU, Brexit happened and if 'ever' it were to be revoked it would require a new vote and a huge amount of goodwill from the EU.
It's not going to happen anytime soon. Most of the gammons can be assured that they will rest in peace in the ground long before we rejoin, if ever we do.
But at the next GE that could still all be reversed.
Or is it - renowned for their generosity in not releasing the genetically modified piscine underlings, on those clearly undeserving of mercy?
'To be sure, it's OK' the old man replied 'Trouble is, you young people don't sleep!"
That does explain a lot. There's often no-one so zealous as a convert.