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If Sunak is facing Tugendhat then my 250/1 bet might be in jeopardy – politicalbetting.com
If Sunak is facing Tugendhat then my 250/1 bet might be in jeopardy – politicalbetting.com
As I have stated before I have a 250/1 bet with Ladbrokes placed in November 2019 bet on Sunak being the next PM and have been trying to think through the dynamics of a CON leadership contest.
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I can't see Tugendhat getting into the final ballot but I may be wrong. Am going to a dinner where Penny Mordaunt is the speaker tomorrow so will see what if anything she lets slip.
YBarddCwsc said:
I am not sure I agree. This tactic is very old.
LBJ: "‘I know it’s not true, but let’s make the sonofabitch deny it.”
That's right. Where we are is:
* Virtually everyone familiar with the role of the DPP thinks the link is an obvious distraction and pretty disreputable
* Joe Bloggs who hasn't followed it closely probably thinks the Johnson is unscrupulous but there's now a query about Starmer
* A striking number of Tory MPs are really disgusted, possibly to the point of leaving the party
The cynical question is whether the benefit for the Tories in having a bit of mud stick on Starmer and getting some distraction from Partygate is sufficient for the downside of actual defections.
IMO Joe Bloggs won't give it much thought once the immediate debate has moved on, while some MPs will remain alienated, so it's a net negative for the Tories. Using us as a sounding board, I note that only Mexicanpete is impressed.
https://tinyurl.com/mrxnm6jx
COVID deaths down 99 on the week before and non-COVID deaths down 276 on the week before, though the five-year average for Week 4 is nearly 500 deaths lower than for Week 3.
Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average
24-Sep-21 | 9,264 | 888 | 9,796 | 532
01-Oct-21 | 9,377 | 783 | 9,727 | 350
08-Oct-21 | 9,555 | 666 | 10,141 | 586
15-Oct-21 | 9,811 | 713 | 10,464 | 653
22-Oct-21 | 9,865 | 792 | 10,516 | 651
29-Oct-21 | 9,759 | 859 | 10,128 | 369
05-Nov-21 | 9,891 | 995 | 10,555 | 664
12-Nov-21 | 10,331 | 1,020 | 11,030 | 699
19-Nov-21 | 10,350 | 952 | 11,151 | 801
26-Nov-21 | 10,380 | 817 | 10,650 | 270
03-Dec-21 | 10,357 | 792 | 10,867 | 510
10-Dec-21 | 10,695 | 764 | 11,166 | 471
17-Dec-21 | 10,750 | 755 | 11,645 | 895
24-Dec-21 | 11,548 | 591 | 12,419 | 871
31-Dec-21 | 7,954 | 582 | 7,895 | -59
07-Jan-22 | 12,194* | 922 | 11,340 | -854
14-Jan-22 | 13,387* | 1,382 | 11,929 | -1,458
21-Jan-22 | 12,838* | 1,484 | 11,292 | -1,546
28-Jan-22 | 12,345* | 1,385 | 11,016 | -1,329
* I'm using 2016 to 2020. The ONS are using 2016 to 2019 and 2021, which seems silly to me. I guess they don't want to switch at the end of March, which is what I will do, and think it's best to have the five-year average inflated by COVID now but then not so much after March.
Tom T's left eyelid droops a bit.
Anyway after those blinding political insights, I must be off.
Sunak's choice was between Boris loyalism or resignation. The Savile remarks were the last chance to get out. He has chosen an uneasy path between the two.
The final two will be out of Hunt, Tugendhat and a couple of other non government figures. FWIW I think it will be close between Hunt and Tugendhat. Either would enable several million people (including me) to take the Tories seriously again, though I doubt if either could beat SKS+ the centre left alliance in the next GE.
The long shot nature of this prediction is that it requires an outbreak of sanity among a majority of the Tory MPs. Here's hoping.
My kind of Tory.
Although people are naturally more likely to be diplomatic under the pressure of a public visit, he must have got a fair whiff, indirectly or directly, of the new attitude to him recently. People can be very easily be subtly sarcastic or offensive without being outright rude, if they want to be, particularly the usually disproportionately bright people he will have been wheeled around to chit-chat with.
So, new Dir of Comms No10 has made big difference to honesty of Govt
Savile smear
Part of cut and thrust of politics
-Raab
He’s no need to apologise
-Gove
All perfectly reasonable
-Kwarteng
He was making fair and reasonable point
-Lewis
PM tells the truth
-Dorries
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1491001785708089346
Meanwhile, any mud thrown at Starmer is probably a help to whoever faces him in GE next time.
That speaks volumes to his awesomeness.
I’m kinda a neocon at heart, I’m sickened by all this appeasement over Ukraine and elsewhere.
We all know where appeasement ends.
Ideally, a Boris replacement needs to tick three boxes;
1. Enough top table experience to hit the ground running.
2. Distant enough from the current shambles to be have clean hands.
3. Sound enough on you-know-what to keep the party from collapsing.
And boxes 1 and 2 are pretty hard to tick simultaneously. Hunt does, but he probably fails on criterion 3.
Hadn't realised that a Conservative government was the path to True Socialism.
Could be strong enough to get someone else into it tbh.
It will be Sunak v AN Other if it happens soon.
The AN Other will have to represent a faction who or not convinced by the Chancellor. I would favour a small stater therefore.
Certainly not in my lifetime, which goes back to Callaghan.
The age standardised mortality rate was lower for people who were married or in a civil partnership between 2010 and 2019 http://ow.ly/JesJ50HP8He
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1490984687116091394?s=20&t=bJ_OCrXts8_qH--ZWVYJ7g
Divorced men/single women showed the greatest differences vs their married peers.
The coalition is collapsing whoever leads it
After his first Cabinet meeting as PM: “An extraordinary affair. I gave them their orders and they wanted to stay and discuss them.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers/arthur-wellesley-1st-duke-of-wellington
It's easy to overlook how divided the Party is. It won't help to have an arch-remainer take over. It's not my Party of course but I would have thoght Sunak would be best in the circumstances if they are serious about rowing from where they are at present.
At least at the moment the centre left's conduct is within the bounds of democratic decency. But the horror show prospect would be this: suppose the Labour party went back in to the hands of Burgon, Corbyn, Abbott,
McDonnell and their acolyte mob and then it would be like to last GE only far worse - with no sane centrist on offer for a government.
'I am still not convinced that Boris Johnson is going to be ousted by his parliamentary party – the body that has total power here because of its ability to no-confidence the PM. This would only happen if enough names go into Graham Brady to force a ballot AND for Johnson to lose that vote.'
I am far from convinced tory MPs have the gumption and courage to oust Johnson. Even if they do scrape across the 54 line, I'm not convinced Johnson would lose the vote. Which would make his position stronger.
We have two more years of this Donald Trump clown. And the country will spiral even further down the drain, along with Parliament, democracy and everything else that we once claimed represented British decency.
Neither option is the path to 'True Socialism' but at this point as a left winger I would only go for Starmer if I was a full on accelerationist, which I've never fully bought into. I'm sure it has merits in some circumstances
Boris Johnson refuses to apologise over Starmer slur despite mob protest https://on.ft.com/3HC3hiG
Exactly the headline the big dog wanted after his reset
The tories will be, deservedly, booted out of power for a generation.
Boris is a weird mix of he's got the right policies in general and has ran a good ship in general, but as I've said many times before he's committed akin to Gross Misconduct by breaking his own laws. That means he has to go. No ifs, no buts.
That doesn't mean the country needs a major change of direction. On the big issues: Europe, Covid, Vaccines, lifting lockdown the decisions have generally been correct. Levelling up is a good idea. The big exception to that is raising taxes, that is a horrendous mistake.
Arch-Remainers who haven't reconciled to the fact they lost the referendum may want to pretend there's major divisions, but I'm not sure there are really.
I can't believe I am saying this but I am going to give Boris the benefit of the doubt re the Trumpianisation of politics on this one. I think he raised it to score a point in PMQs and it has now taken on a life of its own. Should he have spotted the hornets' nest he was about to open up? Don't know; hindsight is a wonderful thing.
https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1490836229625049091?s=21
But I can't be bothered even to begin trying to educate you.
Lost cause.
Only MexicanPete found it "funny".
Decent, Ministerial and Cabinet experience, ex-Whip, understands Northern Ireland, competent, Northern constituency. Has been quick off the mark at distancing himself from the more repellent aspects of the current regime.
Would provide space for younger MPs to develop as likely not to be around for a long time. So may get support from those unwilling to vote for a young Pope.
Also not obviously insane.
Once again obviously not a fan of the leaders campaign this is sarcasm.
The braying bigoted mob in charge of Labour shouldn't be left in charge of cleaning supplies let alone a county.
Its impact is vastly reduced because most voters have now pegged Johnson as a compulsive liar. If May had said such such a thing it would have gained more traction, but I doubt she would have dreamed of stooping so low.
Whilst I don’t want the British PM to necessarily be striding the globe leading the way on things I did hope that Tory MPs could see the contrast.
Think about it, imagine Boris, right now or even in the near future, being taken seriously by any important global leaders.
The joke is over. He’s not serious. He’s a clown. Putin would have just humiliated him in a presser together after talks. I can’t imagine anyone actually wants to be seen standing with him on serious matters as “he’s a joker, a liar, party guy”.
I think we as a country could get away with it for a little while as it would all be tied up in reaction to Brexit but now people must just think “those absolute loons, they’re run by a clown who makes Berlusconi look like a statesman - at least Berlusconi could dress the part”.
And it doesn't - your typical voter doesn't really care about the detail of B**xit, they just want the results of it (Levelling Up) improving their town.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/understanding-the-red-wall-politics-and-identity-in-the-new-electoral-battlegrounds/
On politics: There were high levels of distrust and disillusionment.
‘I won’t be voting Tory again. Put it that way’
‘I just distrust so much at the moment, more than I’ve ever distrusted any government
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-should-not-be-carried-by-us-in-nord-stream-2-shut-down-french-economy-minister-says/
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1491009583560544258
Well, I'm surprised, but it would have been nice.
On your substantive point, the last PM who had never been a member of the cabinet or LOTO was the Duke of Portland in 1783, whose previous government post was Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. The last who was not a minister, although he did attend cabinet, was the Duke of Wellington was commander in chief of the Army when he succeeded Goderich in 1828.
And it sucks to be sitting at home coughing waiting for the results of a PCR test. Really boring.
Edit - I've forgotten one after Portland - Henry Addington in 1801, who became PM from the Speaker's Chair.
I would give him serious consideration if he became leader but I can rest safe in the knowledge that the current Tory membership will never choose a candidate I am likely to vote for. It will be the closest candidate to Farage on offer.
https://www.wordle2.in/
As I've said, I'm not divided on policy (except on tax) from the Prime Minister but I'd submit a letter myself* if I were an MP because lawmakers can't be lawbreakers.
If Sunak or Truss replaced Boris we can continue with a similar agenda, but minus the lawbreaking issue. This isn't the same as 2018/19 when the divisions were real because of a toxic divide over policy. Nobody today is advocating a policy of having illegal lockdown parties, we don't even have lockdown anymore!
* Of course always easier said by non-MPs than done by real MPs who may be worried about potential consequences to their career.
I think Johnson stays on, but if he does get deposed, it would be strange to choose Sunak who presumably is very closely tied to Johnson.
Even Theresa May won hers! IMO the markets are way way overestimating chances of Boris going... similar to what they did with Trump (he was 50/50 to complete his term for a lot of his early years).
understands Northern Ireland
competent
not obviously insane
Not a set of qualities I'd associate with recent Tory leaders! You think the MPs and membership will change their recent voting habits?
(Johnson fails all, I think; May fails at least 'competent'; Cameron probably fails 'insane' for calling the Brexit ref; Howard, even though I'm not a fan, could be the last to arguably come close, although you can probably rule out almost anyone on 'understands Northern Ireland)
Doesn't mean there's political divisions. In 2018/19 when Theresa May was drowning and a VONC happened people wanted a clear change of direction with regards to the backstop and Brexit.
Strip away the personalities and what major political divisions exist within the Tories today?
The way the process works, 54 people trigger the ballot that immediately needs 185 suppporters.
They can’t let the trigger be pulled, until they know they have the 185 on side.
It's very evident indeed that he shares with Trump an overriding concern about himself above any other consideration. The danger is now that he is not ejected, and the machinery of Downing St is rebuilt with preservation of the PM's position as its overriding concern, too.
He also shares with Trump an extremely strong attachment to executive power (for no particular end) over the democratic process.
The idea that he has any attachment to institutions outside of himself is, I think, delusional.