I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
DG of the BBC? Editor of the Telegraph? Secretary General of the UN? Trumps running mate?
The only thing Johnson likes more than posh 6/10s with 5 grands worth of fillers is money so I could see him following Clegg and taking the Big Tech $.
Chief Mendacity Officer at Amazon or something.
Working in a big corporate? You've got to be joking.
Where is lying valued? PR. A big merchant bank. Second hand car sales?
Boris’ future is in the US. Hopefully. He’ll coin it on the chat show lecture circuit.
(Unless he takes advantage of his US citizenship and runs on a Trump Johnson ticket)
Sunak should be telling him about all the money he could be earning.
He renounced his US citizenship for tax reasons.
Is that really true? Surely most of Boris's earnings were taxed here or in Europe, and aiui we have double taxation treaties.
No idea about Johnson specifically but Double Taxation Treaties only remove your tax obligation in one country if it is lower than the tax paid in the other. The liability is still there for the full amount of tax to be paid equivalent to the higher tax regime. Basically if you are doing things legally then you will still pay your tax to the value to the highest tax regime. When I worked in Norway I still had a tax liability for the UK but paid no UK tax because I had paid so much in Norway. But had the situation been reversed and I was a Norwegian working in the UK then I would have paid the full UK tax and then still had to pay the balance due on my Norwegian liability.
Mr Meeks has a second comment that is worth looking at
Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeks As a general theme, newer MPs seem to have been brought back into line while the old hands seem to be breaking against the PM.
If this is true than most new MPs know that levelling up is utterly dead if anyone else becomes leader (it is because of the cost of living crisis but hey it can’t be made too obvious).
How can something that has never existed be dead? The rich, the landed elite cabal they are part of, are getting richer under Johnson at a ridiculous rate whilst the majority, post covid, will start to suffer a fall in living standards.
Levelling up has been something that every government of the last century has struggled with, mostly unsuccessfully.
One thing for certain is that it will be harder still in a period of inflation and declining take home incomes.
I believe some provinces of former East Germany are now more economically successful than some regions of the UK?
18 years. Bloody Hell. I wasn't here from the start. I arrived when looking for some information about the Cheadle by-election - what, June 2005? I remember a conversation in so much more detail than is ever given to these things. Absolutely amazing that here were people who enjoyed the minutiae that I did. Discussion of the electoral geography of the Cheadle constituency quickly segued - indeed, ran alongside - a conversation about the merits of British cheeses. Lots of names from those days still with us. OGH and Robert, of course. Roger. Stodge (with whom, I remember, very early on, a detailed conversation about the EU - how wonderful to find a place where such things can be explored in such detail without rancour), Nick Palmer (myMP at the time - how amazing to be discussing politics with my MP) - even Jack W still puts in the odd appearance. Who else from those days? Sean Fear, Alistair Matlock, Woody 662, Stuart Penketh. Seems I only remember lapsed Tories? How have I been hanging around here for 16 years? Since when I have found a wife, had three daughters, changed career twice and home city once. And ah, pb, we have been through such a lot together. Especially the last two years. Well done Mike and Robert for running such a remarkable corner of the internet.
I think that I'm the "oldest" poster - lots of LD posters in the early days - I enjoyed taking the mick out of them - claim to fame I started the "first" - October 2008
My claim to fame. Mike spotted a young boy who no one had heard of and asked "Could this be the next President of the United States?".
I laughed and answered 'NO' and the rest is history.
Mike became the most famous tipster in the land. Obama became the first black President and I became a laughing stock.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
True. U.K. his position is far weaker compared to then.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Hello. I haven’t posted since GE2019 as the prospect of Boris Johnson with a majority was just too ghastly to spend time discussing. Seems like a few more have now come to the same view!
As a 2005-er I’m delighted to see PB going strong and I will see if March 2nd is possible. We’ve just had a new baby so will depend on how things are at home.
Glad to see so many posters I remember on good form. And that list from Cookie brought back memories. I particularly remember the likes of SBS and Mark Senior no longer with us.
Hello tpfkar! Glad to see you. SBS no longer with us? I don't think I knew that. That's sad. I was thinking about Mark Senior the other day, oddly. Remembering that he chose to celebrate winning a prediction competition with a picture of his son smashing him over the head with a chair.
Andy Cooke dates from those days too, I think, and Stuart Dickson - and possibly malcolmg? Anyone else from back then? There must be loads of names knocking around the back of my mind.
I honestly can't recall when I came across PB but it was well before the 2010 election, possibly around the time of the 2007 Scottish elections. It has been an enormous source of information and entertainment ever since. Thanks Mike and Robert for your efforts.
The 2007 Scottish GE was momentous betting-wise. I had at least two 50/1 winners. No thanks to PB! 😉
What is surprising in retrospect is how well both the Labour and Tory vote stood up. Salmond got his plurality by wiping out the sundry nutters that had infested the Scottish Parliament. And then he replaced them with new ones.
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
With the coming of the exchanges, the nature of the betting beast has changed and trading in and out of positions has become far more the norm and as we saw with North Shropshire a few weeks ago, sharp movements in trades can provide real opportunities - as a follower of the horses for many years, I would never bet in-running as the unexpected seems almost to be the norm.
Election nights on here are always wonderful - 2005 was much quieter but nothing will beat the drama of 2017 and @david_herdson's infamous post from the night before which I think was manna from heaven for some traders.
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
William Glenn won a bag of sand (charitably reduced from 10) from our own Garth Marenghi over the EU exit date. Also seminal.
18 years. Bloody Hell. I wasn't here from the start. I arrived when looking for some information about the Cheadle by-election - what, June 2005? I remember a conversation in so much more detail than is ever given to these things. Absolutely amazing that here were people who enjoyed the minutiae that I did. Discussion of the electoral geography of the Cheadle constituency quickly segued - indeed, ran alongside - a conversation about the merits of British cheeses. Lots of names from those days still with us. OGH and Robert, of course. Roger. Stodge (with whom, I remember, very early on, a detailed conversation about the EU - how wonderful to find a place where such things can be explored in such detail without rancour), Nick Palmer (myMP at the time - how amazing to be discussing politics with my MP) - even Jack W still puts in the odd appearance. Who else from those days? Sean Fear, Alistair Matlock, Woody 662, Stuart Penketh. Seems I only remember lapsed Tories? How have I been hanging around here for 16 years? Since when I have found a wife, had three daughters, changed career twice and home city once. And ah, pb, we have been through such a lot together. Especially the last two years. Well done Mike and Robert for running such a remarkable corner of the internet.
I think that I'm the "oldest" poster - lots of LD posters in the early days - I enjoyed taking the mick out of them - claim to fame I started the "first" - October 2008
My claim to fame. Mike spotted a young boy who no one had heard of and asked "Could this be the next President of the United States?".
I laughed and answered 'NO' and the rest is history.
Mike became the most famous tipster in the land. Obama became the first black President and I became a laughing stock.
18 years. Bloody Hell. I wasn't here from the start. I arrived when looking for some information about the Cheadle by-election - what, June 2005? I remember a conversation in so much more detail than is ever given to these things. Absolutely amazing that here were people who enjoyed the minutiae that I did. Discussion of the electoral geography of the Cheadle constituency quickly segued - indeed, ran alongside - a conversation about the merits of British cheeses. Lots of names from those days still with us. OGH and Robert, of course. Roger. Stodge (with whom, I remember, very early on, a detailed conversation about the EU - how wonderful to find a place where such things can be explored in such detail without rancour), Nick Palmer (myMP at the time - how amazing to be discussing politics with my MP) - even Jack W still puts in the odd appearance. Who else from those days? Sean Fear, Alistair Matlock, Woody 662, Stuart Penketh. Seems I only remember lapsed Tories? How have I been hanging around here for 16 years? Since when I have found a wife, had three daughters, changed career twice and home city once. And ah, pb, we have been through such a lot together. Especially the last two years. Well done Mike and Robert for running such a remarkable corner of the internet.
I think that I'm the "oldest" poster - lots of LD posters in the early days - I enjoyed taking the mick out of them - claim to fame I started the "first" - October 2008
My claim to fame. Mike spotted a young boy who no one had heard of and asked "Could this be the next President of the United States?".
I laughed and answered 'NO' and the rest is history.
Mike became the most famous tipster in the land. Obama became the first black President and I became a laughing stock.
Don’t be so hard on yourself - Rogerdamus is also a legend.
Speaking of pointless suggestions and with @MoonRabbit having seemingly disappeared (posters come, posters go) my three for today's equine action - put them in a Patent or, if you have any sense, find three others:
GUNSIGHT RIDGE 1.15 Sandown ARAMIS GREY 2.51 Lingfield THE WOLF 3.45 Musselburgh
This exceptionally mild and dry winter (for which we will either pay with a cold wet spring or with water shortages come the summer) has left today's cards with more small fields.
Of the 21 turf jump races being run today, only 2 have double figure fields and 12 have fewer than eight runners making each way options limited to 1-2.
I asked @NASA Administrator @SenBillNelson what he sees as his agency’s role in investigating UFOs/UAPs: “It’s a natural conclusion for me as a thinking human being … 1/
“ … in a universe that is so large that I can’t even conceive how large, that there is not some form of life that maybe has evolved into intelligent beings?” 2/
Could they explain some of the recent sightings by military pilots? “I’m not limiting anything,” he responded. 3/
“I hope it’s not one of our terrestrial enemies that has that kind of technology, because that would mean that somebody is very, very advanced.” 4/
What is it? “I don’t know.” Who’s job is it? “One of NASA’s missions is to search for life,” he said, citing the James Webb Space Telescope. “We’re not out there to say that there’s a UAP here or there.” 5/5
That’s the current head of NASA saying “Yeah, basically aliens”
You think?? My between the lines reading is that he refuses to label the recent 'phenomena' as of alien origin, and deliberately introduces the idea of advanced military technology being behind them in as loyal a way as possible.
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
With the coming of the exchanges, the nature of the betting beast has changed and trading in and out of positions has become far more the norm and as we saw with North Shropshire a few weeks ago, sharp movements in trades can provide real opportunities - as a follower of the horses for many years, I would never bet in-running as the unexpected seems almost to be the norm.
Election nights on here are always wonderful - 2005 was much quieter but nothing will beat the drama of 2017 and @david_herdson's infamous post from the night before which I think was manna from heaven for some traders.
What a great bet on Obama. OGH could soon be joined by @Philip_Thompson (or is @BartholomewRoberts ) re Sunak - not sure myself but would be a great call if it came off.
I’d wish I had paid more attention to @david_herdson Re 2017, it would have saved me a lot of money!
I have little recall of when I started posting other than it having been well before Obama’s first election. I remain grateful to the site and its denizens for helping me make quite a lot if money on that. I lapsed at one point and came back with a new account.
18 years. Bloody Hell. I wasn't here from the start. I arrived when looking for some information about the Cheadle by-election - what, June 2005? I remember a conversation in so much more detail than is ever given to these things. Absolutely amazing that here were people who enjoyed the minutiae that I did. Discussion of the electoral geography of the Cheadle constituency quickly segued - indeed, ran alongside - a conversation about the merits of British cheeses. Lots of names from those days still with us. OGH and Robert, of course. Roger. Stodge (with whom, I remember, very early on, a detailed conversation about the EU - how wonderful to find a place where such things can be explored in such detail without rancour), Nick Palmer (myMP at the time - how amazing to be discussing politics with my MP) - even Jack W still puts in the odd appearance. Who else from those days? Sean Fear, Alistair Matlock, Woody 662, Stuart Penketh. Seems I only remember lapsed Tories? How have I been hanging around here for 16 years? Since when I have found a wife, had three daughters, changed career twice and home city once. And ah, pb, we have been through such a lot together. Especially the last two years. Well done Mike and Robert for running such a remarkable corner of the internet.
I think that I'm the "oldest" poster - lots of LD posters in the early days - I enjoyed taking the mick out of them - claim to fame I started the "first" - October 2008
My claim to fame. Mike spotted a young boy who no one had heard of and asked "Could this be the next President of the United States?".
I laughed and answered 'NO' and the rest is history.
Mike became the most famous tipster in the land. Obama became the first black President and I became a laughing stock.
Until then you were just Roger.
You became Rogerdamus that fateful day.
Roger is too modest to mention his own insights into the Oscars over the years.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
Good morning all. Enjoyable thread to read, this, about PB’s evolution from the ‘old days’ (long before my time) through to today. I got into blogging after my ejection – partly choice partly not – from the City at the rather tender age of 47. For about 3 years my main platform was a BBC site where I created the persona of an otherworldly and slightly precious leftie who lived in a big old house in Hampstead with “Mother”. Kind of a Norman Bates meets Wolfie Smith type character. Great fun anyway, and the place was a real community, a virtual world to sink into and where you could just destroy the hours rather than allow them to get on top of you. That site shut down in 2011 and I missed it. But not for long. I soon forgot about it and got into doing the sort of stuff that normal people do.
PB.com came up one day in 2016 when I was googling for betting markets on some political event – betting being one of my main interests since forever – and I read the header. For a while that’s all I did, visited occasionally, read the header. I signed up but only did short sporadic betting comments, not bothered about discussing anything or arguing. My eye would sometimes be caught by other contributions but the latest one was almost always by a “SeanT” and it would be extremely reactionary. Sometimes it wouldn’t even be about politics it would be about his sex life. So this put me off (or kept me safe) for a year or so.
2018 was the fateful year in which my habit hardened from recreational to mainline. TheUnionDivvie was to blame. There was a debate happening on Israel Palestine and I’m not sure why but I was moved to make a 2 para comment despite there being no betting angle. This TUD actually replied and said it was a good comment! That sucked me in and the rest is history. I’m hooked and the reason I’m hooked is the same reason PB is 18 years old and counting – 18 being 150 in digital time btw – which is that it’s a truly great site. It’s best of breed.
I asked @NASA Administrator @SenBillNelson what he sees as his agency’s role in investigating UFOs/UAPs: “It’s a natural conclusion for me as a thinking human being … 1/
“ … in a universe that is so large that I can’t even conceive how large, that there is not some form of life that maybe has evolved into intelligent beings?” 2/
Could they explain some of the recent sightings by military pilots? “I’m not limiting anything,” he responded. 3/
“I hope it’s not one of our terrestrial enemies that has that kind of technology, because that would mean that somebody is very, very advanced.” 4/
What is it? “I don’t know.” Who’s job is it? “One of NASA’s missions is to search for life,” he said, citing the James Webb Space Telescope. “We’re not out there to say that there’s a UAP here or there.” 5/5
That’s the current head of NASA saying “Yeah, basically aliens”
You are reading too much into that.
You for a start can not assume that because there is intelligent life here that there will be elsewhere. There almost certainly is. You only have to consider the Boltzmann brain theory that it is likely, let alone through the more obvious random events that lead to evolution.
But on the other side people do fall for the fallacy 'if it has happened here it must have happened somewhere else with the size of the Universe'. Remember the probability of it happening here is 1, as it has already happened. We can only consider it because it is after the event. Prior to that the probability may have been infinitesimally small. Consider the lottery jackpot winner. The winner doesn't say 'well I have won this week so there must be lots of other jackpot winners this week' does he. There aren't.
And of course if they are there it doesn't mean they are here and if they are here why do they mainly pick on on nutters to buzz. The only logical conclusion to that is they are teenage aliens having a laugh.
I asked @NASA Administrator @SenBillNelson what he sees as his agency’s role in investigating UFOs/UAPs: “It’s a natural conclusion for me as a thinking human being … 1/
“ … in a universe that is so large that I can’t even conceive how large, that there is not some form of life that maybe has evolved into intelligent beings?” 2/
Could they explain some of the recent sightings by military pilots? “I’m not limiting anything,” he responded. 3/
“I hope it’s not one of our terrestrial enemies that has that kind of technology, because that would mean that somebody is very, very advanced.” 4/
What is it? “I don’t know.” Who’s job is it? “One of NASA’s missions is to search for life,” he said, citing the James Webb Space Telescope. “We’re not out there to say that there’s a UAP here or there.” 5/5
That’s the current head of NASA saying “Yeah, basically aliens”
You think?? My between the lines reading is that he refuses to label the recent 'phenomena' as of alien origin, and deliberately introduces the idea of advanced military technology being behind them in as loyal a way as possible.
Bill Nelson has been pretty plain in other interviews when asked what he thinks UAP are.
Will be interesting to see what the Galileo project uncovers. We’ve had an ex DNI confirm on the record that military satellite data has corroborated that there’s ultra tech in our skies that we don’t understand. If that’s the case, it shouldn’t be too long before civilian science via Galileo can confirm the same, given the sightings around military assets are claimed by some pilots to not be rare but an almost daily occurrence in some locations.
That’s without the soft disclosure we’ll likely get from JWST in the next couple of years, confirming atmospheric oxygen and other biochemical indicators in an exo planet. That should lift a few heads out the sand. Perhaps even here.
Started reading PB in 2004, plucked up the courage to post sometime after. I wasn’t Jonathan then, lots of pseudonyms. Juan Hulio, Colin were favourites. Getting into my first argument was pretty scary. I held my own. (Matron) Haven’t stopped since.
Speaking of pointless suggestions and with @MoonRabbit having seemingly disappeared (posters come, posters go) my three for today's equine action - put them in a Patent or, if you have any sense, find three others:
GUNSIGHT RIDGE 1.15 Sandown ARAMIS GREY 2.51 Lingfield THE WOLF 3.45 Musselburgh
This exceptionally mild and dry winter (for which we will either pay with a cold wet spring or with water shortages come the summer) has left today's cards with more small fields.
Of the 21 turf jump races being run today, only 2 have double figure fields and 12 have fewer than eight runners making each way options limited to 1-2.
Musselburgh must be scratching their heads. As Gordon Elliott remarked yesterday, there is a £20,000 race with only three runners, and two of those are from Ireland.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
I agree, for Sunakites, the Trussed and dark horses unknown (Wallace, Morduant, Tugenhat?) There is a risk of precipitating a contest before the ducks are in a row, vs the dilemma of missing the chance. A tricky one to time.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
That's not quite what I was saying although it is undoubtedly connected. What was being floated by MPs on the chat was that 54 was no problem but 181 is a lot more problematic. Of course if some of the potential runners get their supporters to vote no then that does get easier.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
“In theory, the changes expose the airlines to more compensation. However, the consultation acknowledges that, in reality, far fewer people will actually have the impetus to make a claim,” it said. “The net result is that the airlines will save money because passengers will be disincentivised to make a claim. If compensation is going to be reduced to such a low level then it should be paid out automatically.”
Is there a website that collates all our wins? Like Osborne's for the PM's lies.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Ashcroft plugging his book on his website which claims to be about polling - naughty. It's quite a character assassination of Carrie, with a toxic mixture of unattributed comments, unproven allegations and mealy-mouthed assertions that he wants all the best for the Johnsons and the party.
tldr - he dislikes Carrie. I approve of her because of the animal welfare/environment angle, and understand that there are Tories who dislike her for the same reason, as well as the usual reservations about PMs' partners having an influence. But if it was someone I disliked, I hope I'd still be against this kind of stuff, which basically just reinforces the ferrets-in-a-sack impression of the tories.
Yes for all her foibles over interior design and love of socialising, Carrie does bring something useful to the Tories.
Her concerns over green issues, animal welfare etc and being a couple of decades younger do match a demographic that Tories are usually anathema too. She is rather a prosecco environmentalist, but does match a younger female demographic that the Tories poll extremely badly with. The flexitarian yummy mummy vote is one the Tories need.
The other way of looking at it is that - by focussing on these issues - she actually alienates the tories from the concerns of the 'just about managing' masses. The harm is done when it actually manifests itself in rising living costs, as the green agenda is clearly doing. For all of the yummy mummy votes they will court (a very well represented demographic), the conservatives will lose more ground to labour, apathy, and minor right wing parties amongst the unwashed masses. Bit of a problem for them, particularly in the red wall.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
It's largely a south east thing - where all rail lines lead to London. I'd say 'down to London' and 'up to Scotland' and 'over to Sheffield'.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
Just went and found it on Wiki. Indeed, in England the Up line runs to London (or the major destination if London is not on the route) and the Down line runs away. In Scotland the Up direction is towards Edinburgh.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
I think it is a bit more basic and practical than that. Trying to define which line/direction is being referred to could be problematic so basically the bigger destination was 'Up'. I do like it as it has a nice old fashioned feel to it. Even though I live directly north of London and am not a big fan of the place I still like the quirkiness of going 'up' to London.
DG of the BBC? Editor of the Telegraph? Secretary General of the UN? Trumps running mate?
The only thing Johnson likes more than posh 6/10s with 5 grands worth of fillers is money so I could see him following Clegg and taking the Big Tech $.
Chief Mendacity Officer at Amazon or something.
Working in a big corporate? You've got to be joking.
Where is lying valued? PR. A big merchant bank. Second hand car sales?
Boris’ future is in the US. Hopefully. He’ll coin it on the chat show lecture circuit.
(Unless he takes advantage of his US citizenship and runs on a Trump Johnson ticket)
Sunak should be telling him about all the money he could be earning.
He renounced his US citizenship for tax reasons.
Is that really true? Surely most of Boris's earnings were taxed here or in Europe, and aiui we have double taxation treaties.
Some background in this (quite old) Guardian article about it -
“ Boris Johnson among record number to renounce American citizenship in 2016”
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
It's largely a south east thing - where all rail lines lead to London. I'd say 'down to London' and 'up to Scotland' and 'over to Sheffield'.
After all the levelling up the govt have been doing, surely both up and down are now out of date?
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
Just went and found it on Wiki. Indeed, in England the Up line runs to London (or the major destination if London is not on the route) and the Down line runs away. In Scotland the Up direction is towards Edinburgh.
I expect that is because the railway companies changed at the Anglo-Scottish border (actually, very close to it) before the 1923 mergers into LMS and LNER. Because 'up' and 'down' were such important descriptors of trains at signal boxes etc. - "Up 9.20 express" and so on - they wouldn't have dared to change it - there'd have been dozens of crashes when people got muddled late at night. So it's a kind of fossil, like the North British and Caledonian Hotels in Edinburgh (the former abominably renamed to 'Balmoral').
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
With the coming of the exchanges, the nature of the betting beast has changed and trading in and out of positions has become far more the norm and as we saw with North Shropshire a few weeks ago, sharp movements in trades can provide real opportunities - as a follower of the horses for many years, I would never bet in-running as the unexpected seems almost to be the norm.
Election nights on here are always wonderful - 2005 was much quieter but nothing will beat the drama of 2017 and @david_herdson's infamous post from the night before which I think was manna from heaven for some traders.
What a great bet on Obama. OGH could soon be joined by @Philip_Thompson (or is @BartholomewRoberts ) re Sunak - not sure myself but would be a great call if it came off.
I’d wish I had paid more attention to @david_herdson Re 2017, it would have saved me a lot of money!
If you had reacted to David it would have been a bold (albeit correct) move as it really was at the very, very last moment and we were all convinced he had been hacked. His post was so out of character. He had obviously been really shocked by the eve of poll canvassing.
Ashcroft plugging his book on his website which claims to be about polling - naughty. It's quite a character assassination of Carrie, with a toxic mixture of unattributed comments, unproven allegations and mealy-mouthed assertions that he wants all the best for the Johnsons and the party.
tldr - he dislikes Carrie. I approve of her because of the animal welfare/environment angle, and understand that there are Tories who dislike her for the same reason, as well as the usual reservations about PMs' partners having an influence. But if it was someone I disliked, I hope I'd still be against this kind of stuff, which basically just reinforces the ferrets-in-a-sack impression of the tories.
I'm not hugely impressed with Carrie Johnson.
But she's a vast improvement on Dominic Cummings. And I think that's what hurts him the most.
His pieces are too long for me, but has he explained why people he thinks are so useless were able to outmanuevere and sack him? I believe he attempted to explain why he was there for as long as he was when he says they were obviously so bad, but it wasn't very persuasive.
We had the same phenomenon at the DfE.
He thought all the civil servants there were totally useless. And actually, he was right.
But the reforms he and Sam Freedman came up with and believes were in the teeth of Civil Service and Union opposition were the polar opposite of what he was trying to achieve. In particular, many of those same useless civil servants are now on very cushy numbers with good money as CEOs of academy trusts, which is a completely pointless role nobody would miss if it were abolished. And the exams he came up with are less reliable and less rigorous (as well as less useful as a preparation for further study) than the ones they replaced.
I suspect, though I can't prove it,he's just rather lazy and assumes what he's ordered has been done, rather than checking, while everyone around him listens, makes hand gestures behind his back and carries on as before.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
I think it is a bit more basic and practical than that. Trying to define which line/direction is being referred to could be problematic so basically the bigger destination was 'Up'. I do like it as it has a nice old fashioned feel to it. Even though I live directly north of London and am not a big fan of the place I still like the quirkiness of going 'up' to London.
To a degree but it’s a bit more than that (hence why the phrase is used for Oxbridge both of which are not important rail junctions etc). I like it, my wife (being American) thinks it’s stupid.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
It’s at times like this I suspect many MPs wish Boris hadn’t culled Rory and the others.
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
With the coming of the exchanges, the nature of the betting beast has changed and trading in and out of positions has become far more the norm and as we saw with North Shropshire a few weeks ago, sharp movements in trades can provide real opportunities - as a follower of the horses for many years, I would never bet in-running as the unexpected seems almost to be the norm.
Election nights on here are always wonderful - 2005 was much quieter but nothing will beat the drama of 2017 and @david_herdson's infamous post from the night before which I think was manna from heaven for some traders.
What a great bet on Obama. OGH could soon be joined by @Philip_Thompson (or is @BartholomewRoberts ) re Sunak - not sure myself but would be a great call if it came off.
I’d wish I had paid more attention to @david_herdson Re 2017, it would have saved me a lot of money!
If you had reacted to David it would have been a bold (albeit correct) move as it really was at the very, very last moment and we were all convinced he had been hacked. His post was so out of character. He had obviously been really shocked by the eve of poll canvassing.
I know but those are the great calls. I’d agree in hindsight if you had piled in on his references, and it hadn’t come off….
DG of the BBC? Editor of the Telegraph? Secretary General of the UN? Trumps running mate?
The only thing Johnson likes more than posh 6/10s with 5 grands worth of fillers is money so I could see him following Clegg and taking the Big Tech $.
Chief Mendacity Officer at Amazon or something.
Working in a big corporate? You've got to be joking.
Where is lying valued? PR. A big merchant bank. Second hand car sales?
Boris’ future is in the US. Hopefully. He’ll coin it on the chat show lecture circuit.
(Unless he takes advantage of his US citizenship and runs on a Trump Johnson ticket)
Sunak should be telling him about all the money he could be earning.
He renounced his US citizenship for tax reasons.
Is that really true? Surely most of Boris's earnings were taxed here or in Europe, and aiui we have double taxation treaties.
No idea about Johnson specifically but Double Taxation Treaties only remove your tax obligation in one country if it is lower than the tax paid in the other. The liability is still there for the full amount of tax to be paid equivalent to the higher tax regime. Basically if you are doing things legally then you will still pay your tax to the value to the highest tax regime. When I worked in Norway I still had a tax liability for the UK but paid no UK tax because I had paid so much in Norway. But had the situation been reversed and I was a Norwegian working in the UK then I would have paid the full UK tax and then still had to pay the balance due on my Norwegian liability.
The issue in US-UK is to do with principal private residence relief.
In the US it is capped at $250,000 unless (in some states) the tax base is rolled over into a new in-state residence
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
He didn’t want to take off VAT because, once you’ve taken something off, it’s hard to put back on, hence a “temporary” loan. Agree though it is stupid
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
I think in them olden days it was always going 'up' to London wherever you were, mainly posho types I believe, but it may have transferred to us lower orders as well.
Maybe levelling up means no longer feeling one has to go up to London to reach the pinnacle of human existence in the British isles. I'm sure almost everyone would agree though that going to Wick is going up.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
That's not quite what I was saying although it is undoubtedly connected. What was being floated by MPs on the chat was that 54 was no problem but 181 is a lot more problematic. Of course if some of the potential runners get their supporters to vote no then that does get easier.
I think the 181 is difficult because it comes back to the same question namely “what now?” To get to 181, you have to get at least some ERG / RW / anti-lockdown support. None of the leading candidates have that .
There was always a weird paradox for the SNP on currency. To follow them you had to simultaneously accept the idea that those people down south were so repulsive that we can’t work with them anymore, but also that they were so reasonable that they would agree to a currency union.
Now we are to believe monsters have inexhaustible generosity. Those awful people are going to relieve us of having to pay for our pensions for the foreseeable future. There will be an Ebenezer Scrooge style transformation.
The strategic trap of the Plan B question was that on the most important issue for undecided voters, the economy, the SNP chose to hand a veto to their opponents. The UK government needed only to tell the truth - that a currency union wasn’t a goer - to destroy their campaign.
That lesson is lost on them. This week they handed the UK government a veto over not just pensions but, given it is likely to be the central column of their whole fiscal argument, the entire economic case for independence.
I joined PB relatively late, in 2009. I stumbled across the site purely by chance when I googled "Opinion polls" in the run up to the 2010 election. Hopefully some of you might remember "GORDO-10000" and "The Wrath of Crosby"
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
That's not quite what I was saying although it is undoubtedly connected. What was being floated by MPs on the chat was that 54 was no problem but 181 is a lot more problematic. Of course if some of the potential runners get their supporters to vote no then that does get easier.
I think the 181 is difficult because it comes back to the same question namely “what now?” To get to 181, you have to get at least some ERG / RW / anti-lockdown support. None of the leading candidates have that .
If this was really the case then Johnson would not be moving heaven and earth day and night to avoid such a vote. He could have it tomorrow and be secure for 12 months thru the local election losses (barring rules changes). By spring 2023 it is becoming too late for a new PM before GE.
Stephen Hammond, former minister and the Tory MP for Wimbledon, says he is “considering very carefully whether to submit a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson. He says: “All Conservative colleagues … will be wrestling with their consciences this weekend.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
The problem is that being able to "talk to all those groups" was based on smoke, mirrors and outright lies to cover the contradictions.
Searching for a newly plausible liar is a fruitless task.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
I think I started reading PB around 2007. It wasn't long before the financial crash anyway. And then at the end of last year I finally made a post.
Just like to say a big thanks to Mike and the others who make the site work. It's been fascinating reading all these years and I think especially during covid-times it's been a great help to see valuable information, a great deal of off-topic ramblings on every topic under the sun and just 'hear familiar voices'.
Stephen Hammond, former minister and the Tory MP for Wimbledon, says he is “considering very carefully whether to submit a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson. He says: “All Conservative colleagues … will be wrestling with their consciences this weekend.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
It’s at times like this I suspect many MPs wish Boris hadn’t culled Rory and the others.
There are loads of flaws and I was going to post about them, but then I thought no, whatever you do there will be flaws, but now you have bought up the children issue I'll give it a go.
a) We have a 2nd house. We use hardly any power. We will benefit from a reduction of council tax and after the loan will not have to pay for power for months and months
b) My daughter is a student renting. The landlord pays the Council Tax, she pays for power and finishes in June. Huge loser, landlord winner.
c) Council tax bands are rubbish after all this time. I checked on Rightmove after the announcement. This is from the first two houses I looked at: £800,000 band D, £650,000 band F
Stephen Hammond, former minister and the Tory MP for Wimbledon, says he is “considering very carefully whether to submit a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson. He says: “All Conservative colleagues … will be wrestling with their consciences this weekend.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
Tory MPs wrestling with Tory MPs consciences. Is there a weight division below flyweight?
Stephen Hammond, former minister and the Tory MP for Wimbledon, says he is “considering very carefully whether to submit a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson. He says: “All Conservative colleagues … will be wrestling with their consciences this weekend.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
That’s a new TV sport format for the new millennium! Conservative conscience wrestling, live from the NEC.
The highlight, JRM in Lycra dancing in the ring with absolutely nothing at all.
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
I am not a fan but it is £40 a year. Will be a tiny fraction of the cost of living pressures over those years so not a big deal.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
He didn’t want to take off VAT because, once you’ve taken something off, it’s hard to put back on, hence a “temporary” loan. Agree though it is stupid
One of the issues that no one talks about much outside the Treasury is that as the car industry moves rapidly to electric the fuel tax take is going to crater. That's a lot of money.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
He didn’t want to take off VAT because, once you’ve taken something off, it’s hard to put back on, hence a “temporary” loan. Agree though it is stupid
Lifting the green levy might have been more sensible. High fossil fuel prices provide a very strong incentive to curtail energy usage in any event. Easier to mess around with than VAT ?
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
So when us northerners say we're from 'up north' we're rightly acknowledging that we're from most important place. Suits me.
“In theory, the changes expose the airlines to more compensation. However, the consultation acknowledges that, in reality, far fewer people will actually have the impetus to make a claim,” it said. “The net result is that the airlines will save money because passengers will be disincentivised to make a claim. If compensation is going to be reduced to such a low level then it should be paid out automatically.”
Is there a website that collates all our wins? Like Osborne's for the PM's lies.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
Just went and found it on Wiki. Indeed, in England the Up line runs to London (or the major destination if London is not on the route) and the Down line runs away. In Scotland the Up direction is towards Edinburgh.
I expect that is because the railway companies changed at the Anglo-Scottish border (actually, very close to it) before the 1923 mergers into LMS and LNER. Because 'up' and 'down' were such important descriptors of trains at signal boxes etc. - "Up 9.20 express" and so on - they wouldn't have dared to change it - there'd have been dozens of crashes when people got muddled late at night. So it's a kind of fossil, like the North British and Caledonian Hotels in Edinburgh (the former abominably renamed to 'Balmoral').
Edit: I see from others this doesn't apply to ECML and WCML - would make good sense to have done it that way ab initio when the first through trains ran. Not so many of them in those days. But no need to change anything else. (Still, one would have thought the Caledonian lines would be 'up' to Glasgow, so there is more to it than that.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
It’s at times like this I suspect many MPs wish Boris hadn’t culled Rory and the others.
There are loads of flaws and I was going to post about them, but then I thought no, whatever you do there will be flaws, but now you have bought up the children issue I'll give it a go.
a) We have a 2nd house. We use hardly any power. We will benefit from a reduction of council tax and after the loan will not have to pay for power for months and months
b) My daughter is a student renting. The landlord pays the Council Tax, she pays for power and finishes in June. Huge loser, landlord winner.
c) Council tax bands are rubbish after all this time. I checked on Rightmove after the announcement. This is from the first two houses I looked at: £800,000 band D, £650,000 band F
Given that there will always be flaws - the best plan would be to do nothing and work out how to get money to those who actually need it.
The Band A-D issue equally doesn't work but unless we scrap council tax it's never going to change as I revaluation after 30 years would be electoral suicide.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
What about the Stranraer line? Presumably 'up' is towards Glasgow?
Unless you are leaving Oxford or Cambridge and heading to London. Then you are still going down.
Er...how often do you go from Cambridge via Stranraer? Seems rather a long way round.
IIRC, the correct nomenclature was said to be 'up' was any direction towards the HQ of the railway company, which in the case of England were mostly in London (the Lancashire and Yorkshire plus the Great Central in Manchester and the Midland in Derby being exceptions) but actually, that doesn't work because the Great Central at least had 'up' trains heading towards London.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
That's not quite what I was saying although it is undoubtedly connected. What was being floated by MPs on the chat was that 54 was no problem but 181 is a lot more problematic. Of course if some of the potential runners get their supporters to vote no then that does get easier.
I think the 181 is difficult because it comes back to the same question namely “what now?” To get to 181, you have to get at least some ERG / RW / anti-lockdown support. None of the leading candidates have that .
If this was really the case then Johnson would not be moving heaven and earth day and night to avoid such a vote. He could have it tomorrow and be secure for 12 months thru the local election losses (barring rules changes). By spring 2023 it is becoming too late for a new PM before GE.
That's a really good point. If Johnson were really confident he'd win a VONC in the party, he'd be saying 'bring it on'. It would then lance the boil for the rest of this parliament. But instead, he's moving heaven and earth to avoid it.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
Truss is better liked than many think
I chatted to someone the other day (backing Hunt on the grounds that he is the most suitable but doesn’t expect him to win).
Rates Sunak, but needs longer in post. Likes Truss (“she tries really hard… and please, God, anyone but Raab”)
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
As someone who is beyond the four score years, let alone three score & ten, what happens if neither I nor Mrs C makes it for another 4 years? Will it be deducted from our estate, or be on the final bill when Eldest Son winds up the estate, prior to selling the house?
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
So when us northerners say we're from 'up north' we're rightly acknowledging that we're from most important place. Suits me.
Actually yes, it was a reaction in some ways against the idea that London was “up”
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
What about the Stranraer line? Presumably 'up' is towards Glasgow?
Yep. My understanding from now looking into it is that a line not going to London or Edinburgh would have the 'Up' direction going towards the larger/more important destination.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
Your Grandfather was correct - as a child in Scotland it bemused me that people talked of going "up" to London when any glance at a map would show London was "down".
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
As someone who is beyond the four score years, let alone three score & ten, what happens if neither I nor Mrs C makes it for another 4 years? Will it be deducted from our estate, or be on the final bill when Eldest Son winds up the estate, prior to selling the house?
Nope it's going to be paid by the next resident of your house.
DG of the BBC? Editor of the Telegraph? Secretary General of the UN? Trumps running mate?
The only thing Johnson likes more than posh 6/10s with 5 grands worth of fillers is money so I could see him following Clegg and taking the Big Tech $.
Chief Mendacity Officer at Amazon or something.
Working in a big corporate? You've got to be joking.
Where is lying valued? PR. A big merchant bank. Second hand car sales?
Boris’ future is in the US. Hopefully. He’ll coin it on the chat show lecture circuit.
(Unless he takes advantage of his US citizenship and runs on a Trump Johnson ticket)
Sunak should be telling him about all the money he could be earning.
He renounced his US citizenship for tax reasons.
Is that really true? Surely most of Boris's earnings were taxed here or in Europe, and aiui we have double taxation treaties.
No idea about Johnson specifically but Double Taxation Treaties only remove your tax obligation in one country if it is lower than the tax paid in the other. The liability is still there for the full amount of tax to be paid equivalent to the higher tax regime. Basically if you are doing things legally then you will still pay your tax to the value to the highest tax regime. When I worked in Norway I still had a tax liability for the UK but paid no UK tax because I had paid so much in Norway. But had the situation been reversed and I was a Norwegian working in the UK then I would have paid the full UK tax and then still had to pay the balance due on my Norwegian liability.
The issue in US-UK is to do with principal private residence relief.
In the US it is capped at $250,000 unless (in some states) the tax base is rolled over into a new in-state residence
London capital gains in a house can be higher
As an aside, are we to gather that American property taxes, at least in some states, are far higher than ours? I've a vague idea I heard that on one of those "why sports stars go bankrupt" features.
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
As someone who is beyond the four score years, let alone three score & ten, what happens if neither I nor Mrs C makes it for another 4 years? Will it be deducted from our estate, or be on the final bill when Eldest Son winds up the estate, prior to selling the house?
Nope it's going to be paid by the next resident of your house.
I know it's not a lot of money, but that hardly seems fair. And suppose the house stays empty for a while?
The 200 pound loan did not pass the Martin Lewis test on the basis you have to pay it back whether you received it or not.
It is not a loan. A short term subsidy (expected to be) funded by a longer term surcharge.
Yep and complete f***ks up everyone who will be moving it their first home at any point between 2023 and 2027.
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
As someone who is beyond the four score years, let alone three score & ten, what happens if neither I nor Mrs C makes it for another 4 years? Will it be deducted from our estate, or be on the final bill when Eldest Son winds up the estate, prior to selling the house?
Nope it's going to be paid by the next resident of your house.
I know it's not a lot of money, but that hardly seems fair. And suppose the house stays empty for a while?
The whole thing is a very stupid idea. It will not improve matters, rather it will make them much worse in the medium term.
It's based on a double policy failure: (1) using gas and wind instead of tidal power to replace coal and nuclear (2) the energy price cap, which rather ignored what would happen when companies trying to buy fuel ran out of money.
And while the latter was a Miliband idea, the Tories were the ones who were foolish enough to implement it.
I think I joined PB sometime around 2006 or 2007. Had a huge amount of fun and learnt a lot on here over the years. Still feel a bit of a fraud as I don't bet that often although I have had a few side bets with various posters over the years and come out about even over all. But still think it is by far the best place to both get the news and get exposed to proper debate and opinions I would otherwise not have really heard (or maybe more accurately listened to). Also delighted to have had a few of my thoughts published by Mike and the team so very grateful for that.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
Really? If I was taking a train from Aberdeen I'd say I was going down to London and then back up to Scotland. It sounds totally wrong to me the other way around.
I agree but my Grandfather who worked the railways for newspaper distribution told me that the line carrying trains towards London was always the 'Up' line. Maybe it wasn't true but that is what I always knew it as.
The thinking was that London was the capital and therefore you were travelling ‘up’ because you were going to a more (the most) important place.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
So when us northerners say we're from 'up north' we're rightly acknowledging that we're from most important place. Suits me.
In which case can the levelling up cash be re-directed to the south? Actually scrap that, as there is no levelling up cash regardless......
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
He didn’t want to take off VAT because, once you’ve taken something off, it’s hard to put back on, hence a “temporary” loan. Agree though it is stupid
One of the issues that no one talks about much outside the Treasury is that as the car industry moves rapidly to electric the fuel tax take is going to crater. That's a lot of money.
There was an MP from a select committee talking about this the on Radio 4 - either yesterday or the day before.
The problem is that no-one trusts governments with another tax. So road pricing is electoral poison. Attempts to mandate some kind of electricity-for-vehicles tax are impossible to implement. Hydrogen has lost the domestic vehicle race....
There are very few politically possible options - maybe even none.
Stephen Hammond, former minister and the Tory MP for Wimbledon, says he is “considering very carefully whether to submit a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson. He says: “All Conservative colleagues … will be wrestling with their consciences this weekend.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
That’s a new TV sport format for the new millennium! Conservative conscience wrestling, live from the NEC.
The highlight, JRM in Lycra dancing in the ring with absolutely nothing at all.
And like professional wrestling, it is all just a scripted performance.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
It’s at times like this I suspect many MPs wish Boris hadn’t culled Rory and the others.
There are loads of flaws and I was going to post about them, but then I thought no, whatever you do there will be flaws, but now you have bought up the children issue I'll give it a go.
a) We have a 2nd house. We use hardly any power. We will benefit from a reduction of council tax and after the loan will not have to pay for power for months and months
b) My daughter is a student renting. The landlord pays the Council Tax, she pays for power and finishes in June. Huge loser, landlord winner.
c) Council tax bands are rubbish after all this time. I checked on Rightmove after the announcement. This is from the first two houses I looked at: £800,000 band D, £650,000 band F
I'm in the same position. My house is band B. But my electricity bills are less than a pound a day in winter, and gas is less than that. In summer that drops to near zero.
Is there a poll tonight? What number would trigger another raft of letters?
While I'd be delighted with a humungous Labour lead, I'm not expecting one - my perception of the last week has been a bit meh, same stories recirculating, and that will make the lead drift down, to 6 or 7, I think - which is probably the real gap at present, major new developments excepted.
That said, I also don't buy the idea that the local by-elections this week show anything disastrous for Labour - all of them (including the Labour gain in Lewes, mysteriously ignored by Nerys and BigG) had local factors with turnout in the teens and 20s. The reality is that most people feel the Government's in a mess and Labour seems credible but unexciting. So if there's a GE tomorrow, let's have Labour, but if it's a local by-election, why bother.
If you're a Tory MP, the question is whether you think that this is all normal mid-term stuff and they'll pull back 6% easily enough, or worth rolling the dice with X replacing Johnson. If you don't actually care about the ethics aspect and merely want to get reelected, it's as simple as that - and probably you decide to wait and see till May.
DG of the BBC? Editor of the Telegraph? Secretary General of the UN? Trumps running mate?
The only thing Johnson likes more than posh 6/10s with 5 grands worth of fillers is money so I could see him following Clegg and taking the Big Tech $.
Chief Mendacity Officer at Amazon or something.
Working in a big corporate? You've got to be joking.
Where is lying valued? PR. A big merchant bank. Second hand car sales?
Boris’ future is in the US. Hopefully. He’ll coin it on the chat show lecture circuit.
(Unless he takes advantage of his US citizenship and runs on a Trump Johnson ticket)
Sunak should be telling him about all the money he could be earning.
He renounced his US citizenship for tax reasons.
Is that really true? Surely most of Boris's earnings were taxed here or in Europe, and aiui we have double taxation treaties.
No idea about Johnson specifically but Double Taxation Treaties only remove your tax obligation in one country if it is lower than the tax paid in the other. The liability is still there for the full amount of tax to be paid equivalent to the higher tax regime. Basically if you are doing things legally then you will still pay your tax to the value to the highest tax regime. When I worked in Norway I still had a tax liability for the UK but paid no UK tax because I had paid so much in Norway. But had the situation been reversed and I was a Norwegian working in the UK then I would have paid the full UK tax and then still had to pay the balance due on my Norwegian liability.
The issue in US-UK is to do with principal private residence relief.
In the US it is capped at $250,000 unless (in some states) the tax base is rolled over into a new in-state residence
London capital gains in a house can be higher
As an aside, are we to gather that American property taxes, at least in some states, are far higher than ours? I've a vague idea I heard that on one of those "why sports stars go bankrupt" features.
I heard a plausible theory on the Adrian Chiles radio program yesterday. There is absolutley no problem in getting to 54 but those opposed to Boris do not want to trigger a contest until they think that they can win it and they are still far from confident about that so they are holding back and waiting for him to weaken. They are concerned about giving him another full year.
I think, for all the abuse they get, we are dealing with a pretty sophisticated electorate here, well used to gaming the system.
Johnson could throw those he saw as ringleaders out of the party and still have a Parliamentary majority, of course.
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
He can’t, he hasn’t got the authority (cue Jackie Weaver).
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
The problem the Tory party have is that Boris was the only person able to talk to all the different groups that the Tory party support is currently built on.
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
Yes, that’s exactly the problem. In some ways, the Conservatives are becoming a mirror image of Labour’s unstable coalition of urbanites, WWC (declining) and generally conservative ethnic minorities.
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
The £200 Loan is going to be a disaster for the Tories. Why am I now paying back a “loan” I never wanted in the first place and why will my children be paying a loan they never benefited from the first place.
He didn’t want to take off VAT because, once you’ve taken something off, it’s hard to put back on, hence a “temporary” loan. Agree though it is stupid
One of the issues that no one talks about much outside the Treasury is that as the car industry moves rapidly to electric the fuel tax take is going to crater. That's a lot of money.
There was an MP from a select committee talking about this the on Radio 4 - either yesterday or the day before.
The problem is that no-one trusts governments with another tax. So road pricing is electoral poison. Attempts to mandate some kind of electricity-for-vehicles tax are impossible to implement. Hydrogen has lost the domestic vehicle race....
There are very few politically possible options - maybe even none.
Comments
CF Gauke, Hammond et al.
I laughed and answered 'NO' and the rest is history.
Mike became the most famous tipster in the land. Obama became the first black President and I became a laughing stock.
It's nice to have an occasional wallow, hippo-like, in nostalgia. I have to say OGH's bet on Obama becoming President remains one of the seminal moments in betting terms.
With the coming of the exchanges, the nature of the betting beast has changed and trading in and out of positions has become far more the norm and as we saw with North Shropshire a few weeks ago, sharp movements in trades can provide real opportunities - as a follower of the horses for many years, I would never bet in-running as the unexpected seems almost to be the norm.
Election nights on here are always wonderful - 2005 was much quieter but nothing will beat the drama of 2017 and @david_herdson's infamous post from the night before which I think was manna from heaven for some traders.
You became Rogerdamus that fateful day.
GUNSIGHT RIDGE 1.15 Sandown
ARAMIS GREY 2.51 Lingfield
THE WOLF 3.45 Musselburgh
This exceptionally mild and dry winter (for which we will either pay with a cold wet spring or with water shortages come the summer) has left today's cards with more small fields.
Of the 21 turf jump races being run today, only 2 have double figure fields and 12 have fewer than eight runners making each way options limited to 1-2.
I’d wish I had paid more attention to @david_herdson Re 2017, it would have saved me a lot of money!
I lapsed at one point and came back with a new account.
Still the best place for breaking news.
However, I am subscriber to the theory @DavidL puts forwards, namely BJ is there because certain sections do not want the oft mentioned alternatives, namely Sunak and Truss, but are struggling to find their own alternative. If there is one reason to be short both is the lack of Tory MPs briefing for them in the press. They don’t look to have a strong base of support.
PB.com came up one day in 2016 when I was googling for betting markets on some political event – betting being one of my main interests since forever – and I read the header. For a while that’s all I did, visited occasionally, read the header. I signed up but only did short sporadic betting comments, not bothered about discussing anything or arguing. My eye would sometimes be caught by other contributions but the latest one was almost always by a “SeanT” and it would be extremely reactionary. Sometimes it wouldn’t even be about politics it would be about his sex life. So this put me off (or kept me safe) for a year or so.
2018 was the fateful year in which my habit hardened from recreational to mainline. TheUnionDivvie was to blame. There was a debate happening on Israel Palestine and I’m not sure why but I was moved to make a 2 para comment despite there being no betting angle. This TUD actually replied and said it was a good comment! That sucked me in and the rest is history. I’m hooked and the reason I’m hooked is the same reason PB is 18 years old and counting – 18 being 150 in digital time btw – which is that it’s a truly great site. It’s best of breed.
You for a start can not assume that because there is intelligent life here that there will be elsewhere. There almost certainly is. You only have to consider the Boltzmann brain theory that it is likely, let alone through the more obvious random events that lead to evolution.
But on the other side people do fall for the fallacy 'if it has happened here it must have happened somewhere else with the size of the Universe'. Remember the probability of it happening here is 1, as it has already happened. We can only consider it because it is after the event. Prior to that the probability may have been infinitesimally small. Consider the lottery jackpot winner. The winner doesn't say 'well I have won this week so there must be lots of other jackpot winners this week' does he. There aren't.
And of course if they are there it doesn't mean they are here and if they are here why do they mainly pick on on nutters to buzz. The only logical conclusion to that is they are teenage aliens having a laugh.
Will be interesting to see what the Galileo project uncovers. We’ve had an ex DNI confirm on the record that military satellite data has corroborated that there’s ultra tech in our skies that we don’t understand. If that’s the case, it shouldn’t be too long before civilian science via Galileo can confirm the same, given the sightings around military assets are claimed by some pilots to not be rare but an almost daily occurrence in some locations.
That’s without the soft disclosure we’ll likely get from JWST in the next couple of years, confirming atmospheric oxygen and other biochemical indicators in an exo planet. That should lift a few heads out the sand. Perhaps even here.
I do intend trying to get up to London for the 2nd (I still love the old rail terminology learnt from my Grandfather that London is always 'up'). Just trying to decide whether to come up just for the evening or book a hotel for overnight.
“In theory, the changes expose the airlines to more compensation. However, the consultation acknowledges that, in reality, far fewer people will actually have the impetus to make a claim,” it said. “The net result is that the airlines will save money because passengers will be disincentivised to make a claim. If compensation is going to be reduced to such a low level then it should be paid out automatically.”
Is there a website that collates all our wins? Like Osborne's for the PM's lies.
https://boris-johnson-lies.com/
The problem is that everyone else in a position of leadership comes from the historic “don’t spend” world while the new MPs know that without sweeties they aren’t going to be re-elected.
So while Bozo is seriously damaged goods there isn’t any sane alternative but Bozo is now so damaged it is getting to the point where his faults are no longer ignorable.
Yep the Tory party is a sophisticated electorate but the problem it currently faces is there is no logical leader that keeps Bozo’s coalition in place and Bozo is braking so rapidly that a replacement is going to be needed far earlier than they want.
I'd say 'down to London' and 'up to Scotland' and 'over to Sheffield'.
It was the same principle why people said you went ‘up’ to Oxford and Cambridge regardless of where you lived.
“ Boris Johnson among record number to renounce American citizenship in 2016”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary
Leaderwise, I think it’s clear Sunak and Truss don’t have the confidence of the Red Wall / ERG factions. Sunak’s energy payments look to be a way to prove he can benefit RW voters but I think (rightly) many of those MPs don’t trust him. Truss has other problems.
The ideal situation (for them) is for the ERG / RW faction to find one of their own. That’s going to be hard to find someone who then appeals to Blue Wall Tories.
He thought all the civil servants there were totally useless. And actually, he was right.
But the reforms he and Sam Freedman came up with and believes were in the teeth of Civil Service and Union opposition were the polar opposite of what he was trying to achieve. In particular, many of those same useless civil servants are now on very cushy numbers with good money as CEOs of academy trusts, which is a completely pointless role nobody would miss if it were abolished. And the exams he came up with are less reliable and less rigorous (as well as less useful as a preparation for further study) than the ones they replaced.
I suspect, though I can't prove it,he's just rather lazy and assumes what he's ordered has been done, rather than checking, while everyone around him listens, makes hand gestures behind his back and carries on as before.
In British practice, railway directions are usually described as "up" and "down", with "up" being towards a major location. This convention is applied not only to the trains and the tracks, but also to items of lineside equipment and to areas near a track. Since British trains run on the left, the "up" side of a line is usually on the left when proceeding in the "up" direction.
On most of the network, "up" is the direction towards London. In most of Scotland, with the exception of the West and East Coast Main Lines , and the Borders Railway, "up" is towards Edinburgh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_directions
It’s at times like this I suspect many MPs wish Boris hadn’t culled Rory and the others.
In the US it is capped at $250,000 unless (in some states) the tax base is rolled over into a new in-state residence
London capital gains in a house can be higher
Maybe levelling up means no longer feeling one has to go up to London to reach the pinnacle of human existence in the British isles. I'm sure almost everyone would agree though that going to Wick is going up.
The best they can do is hope that someone else can rescue a big enough piece of it from the rubble
Now we are to believe monsters have inexhaustible generosity. Those awful people are going to relieve us of having to pay for our pensions for the foreseeable future. There will be an Ebenezer Scrooge style transformation.
The strategic trap of the Plan B question was that on the most important issue for undecided voters, the economy, the SNP chose to hand a veto to their opponents. The UK government needed only to tell the truth - that a currency union wasn’t a goer - to destroy their campaign.
That lesson is lost on them. This week they handed the UK government a veto over not just pensions but, given it is likely to be the central column of their whole fiscal argument, the entire economic case for independence.
https://notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/not-pensions-again
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1489923445290901505
https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1489632241923854339
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489923539603972097
Searching for a newly plausible liar is a fruitless task.
A prediction based on a tiny tiny snippet of info: Johnson will be VONC'd on w/c 21st Feb and will be ousted.
All caveats apply. Have a great w/e everyone!
Granted the actual amount is less than £4 a month but it's the principle and a demonstration that the Treasury aren't thinking things through - and not picking up the flaws.
Just like to say a big thanks to Mike and the others who make the site work. It's been fascinating reading all these years and I think especially during covid-times it's been a great help to see valuable information, a great deal of off-topic ramblings on every topic under the sun and just 'hear familiar voices'.
:: punches you all manfully on the shoulder ::
a) We have a 2nd house. We use hardly any power. We will benefit from a reduction of council tax and after the loan will not have to pay for power for months and months
b) My daughter is a student renting. The landlord pays the Council Tax, she pays for power and finishes in June. Huge loser, landlord winner.
c) Council tax bands are rubbish after all this time. I checked on Rightmove after the announcement. This is from the first two houses I looked at: £800,000 band D, £650,000 band F
The highlight, JRM in Lycra dancing in the ring with absolutely nothing at all.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/opinion/boris-johnson-party-scandal.html
Easier to mess around with than VAT ?
The Band A-D issue equally doesn't work but unless we scrap council tax it's never going to change as I revaluation after 30 years would be electoral suicide.
IIRC, the correct nomenclature was said to be 'up' was any direction towards the HQ of the railway company, which in the case of England were mostly in London (the Lancashire and Yorkshire plus the Great Central in Manchester and the Midland in Derby being exceptions) but actually, that doesn't work because the Great Central at least had 'up' trains heading towards London.
I chatted to someone the other day (backing Hunt on the grounds that he is the most suitable but doesn’t expect him to win).
Rates Sunak, but needs longer in post. Likes Truss (“she tries really hard… and please, God, anyone but Raab”)
Iowa to introduce cameras in classrooms to livestream for all parents to see...
https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/education/592921-iowa-introduces-bill-requiring-cameras-in-public-school?amp
But there are possibilities. How about instead we introduce live cameras at the DfE to see how drunk they're getting at the latest party?
It's based on a double policy failure: (1) using gas and wind instead of tidal power to replace coal and nuclear (2) the energy price cap, which rather ignored what would happen when companies trying to buy fuel ran out of money.
And while the latter was a Miliband idea, the Tories were the ones who were foolish enough to implement it.
As for the first, they can own that entirely.
The problem is that no-one trusts governments with another tax. So road pricing is electoral poison. Attempts to mandate some kind of electricity-for-vehicles tax are impossible to implement. Hydrogen has lost the domestic vehicle race....
There are very few politically possible options - maybe even none.
We are due a few more heel-face turns though.
Targeting me for extra money is bloody daft.
That said, I also don't buy the idea that the local by-elections this week show anything disastrous for Labour - all of them (including the Labour gain in Lewes, mysteriously ignored by Nerys and BigG) had local factors with turnout in the teens and 20s. The reality is that most people feel the Government's in a mess and Labour seems credible but unexciting. So if there's a GE tomorrow, let's have Labour, but if it's a local by-election, why bother.
If you're a Tory MP, the question is whether you think that this is all normal mid-term stuff and they'll pull back 6% easily enough, or worth rolling the dice with X replacing Johnson. If you don't actually care about the ethics aspect and merely want to get reelected, it's as simple as that - and probably you decide to wait and see till May.
But I fear it will be quite popular in some places.
Great article in the Speccie on why Johnson has to go
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-must-go-?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=BOCH 05022022 HT+CID_a53b72e28bf303a6cd70f9849543dd5c