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Punters increasingly think Johnson’s days are numbered – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    About 80% for the Tories I think. 12,792 votes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    My guess is that further delay in SeW due to checking to determine if candidate(s) did or did not make threshold to get their deposit(s) back.

    They've already declared. ;)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited February 2022
    Result.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489409859841929220

    CON: 86.1% (+26.9)
    PSYM: 3.4% (+3.4)
    UKIP: 2.7% (+2.7)
    EDEM: 2.2% (+2.2)
    IND (Fransen): 2.0% (+2.0)
    HP: 1.6% (+1.6)
    FA: 1.1% (+1.1)
    ECON: 0.6% (+0.6)
    IND (Childs): 0.3% (+0.3)
  • Andy_JS said:

    About 80% for the Tories I think. 12,792 votes.

    My gut says less; my head is stoned so forgetaboutit . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Andy_JS said:

    About 80% for the Tories I think. 12,792 votes.

    My gut says less; my head is stoned so forgetaboutit . . .
    86% in fact.
  • Andy_JS said:

    About 80% for the Tories I think. 12,792 votes.

    Call off the Boris removal plot ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    dr_spyn said:

    Result.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489409859841929220

    CON: 86.1% (+26.9)
    PSYM: 3.4% (+3.4)
    UKIP: 2.7% (+2.7)
    EDEM: 2.2% (+2.2)
    IND (Fransen): 2.0% (+2.0)
    HP: 1.6% (+1.6)
    FA: 1.1% (+1.1)
    ECON: 0.6% (+0.6)
    IND (Childs): 0.3% (+0.3)

    Tory voteshare up 27% from the 2019 general election. Better than I expected from Anna Firth, well done her.

    Pyschedelic Movement snatch second ahead of UKIP
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Takes the number of female MPs to 35% for the first time (rounded to the nearest whole number), 224 out of 649. And Labour have of course selected a woman in B'ham Erdington.
  • Only 86.1%? :lol:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Fascists, 10.8%
    Druggies, 3.4%
    Thieving Liars, 86.1%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited February 2022

    Only 86.1%? :lol:

    I was nearly tempted to bet on the Tories getting less than 50%. Good job I didn't in the end!
  • HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Result.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489409859841929220

    CON: 86.1% (+26.9)
    PSYM: 3.4% (+3.4)
    UKIP: 2.7% (+2.7)
    EDEM: 2.2% (+2.2)
    IND (Fransen): 2.0% (+2.0)
    HP: 1.6% (+1.6)
    FA: 1.1% (+1.1)
    ECON: 0.6% (+0.6)
    IND (Childs): 0.3% (+0.3)

    Tory voteshare up 27% from the 2019 general election. Better than I expected from Anna Firth, well done her.

    Pyschedelic Movement snatch second ahead of UKIP
    How many votes did she get?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 2022
    AF vote 13,700 or thereabouts?

    EDIT 12,792 if I heard right via recording
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "I have followed Ukip for years and I have never seen them so bereft. It is, among other things, an education in getting your heart’s desire. When I find Laws at the end of the day, and ask him how it went, he says, “Nobody had much to say, not the people we met today anyway. A lot of people I don’t think are going to vote. But we don’t know until the ballot day.”"

    https://unherd.com/2022/02/what-can-we-learn-from-southend-west/
  • Andy_JS said:

    "I have followed Ukip for years and I have never seen them so bereft. It is, among other things, an education in getting your heart’s desire. When I find Laws at the end of the day, and ask him how it went, he says, “Nobody had much to say, not the people we met today anyway. A lot of people I don’t think are going to vote. But we don’t know until the ballot day.”"

    https://unherd.com/2022/02/what-can-we-learn-from-southend-west/

    As quoted by the South Essex blog, the UKIP candidate comes across as a rather appealing young person in politics:

    "Steve Laws, the candidate for UKIP, has said his campaign in the by-election was a "massive learning curve".

    Mr Laws has only been a member of the party for about six months, but felt it was the right time to stand.

    He said: "I spoke to a Labour voter, they said they were outraged they haven't got someone to vote for, but in the same breath they say I shouldn't stand. It's a catch 22.

    "It's blurred because people don't know what the right thing to do is. They have the Tories but they're also letting them down."

    Mr Laws believes the lower turnout this year is in part due to the circumstances of Sir David's death and the absence of a Lib Dem or Labour candidate.

    He added: "Having a little walk-around I think it's a Tory win but I am hoping for second place."

    He said some of the things he has learned include how to approach people on the doorsteps and holding a civil conversation with people with differing views.

    Mr Laws said he's thankful that no one has slammed the door in his face during the campaign."

    SSI - I sense this is someone with a potential future in politics at some level, if that's what he decides to pursue.
  • 01.39 Anna Firth's victory speech in full

    "Tonight I pay tribute to Sir David Amess, who represented this seat for more than 24 years, and who was a passionate advocate for Southend West.

    "Sir David was a truly exceptional MP. He was a friend to all and made an enormous impact on everyone who lives here.

    "For Sir David’s family and friends, today will be a sad and painful day, and I would like to pay tribute to Lady Amess and their children. We are thinking of you tonight.

    "I would also like to pay tribute to the political parties who marked their respect to Sir David by not contesting this by-election. It is inspiring to see politicians coming together from across the political divide to respect a great man and a great parliamentarian.

    "It is the honor of my life to represent the people of Southend West and the place where I was born. As your member of Parliament I will work tirelessly to build on everything he achieved.

    "I would like to thank the police and everyone who has made today’s election so smooth.

    "My family, especially my husband Edward, for his unstinting support.

    "And my whole campaign team for the extremely respectful and positive campaign they have run. I must single out my agent, Andrew Jefferies and my Association Chairman, Cllr John Lamb and his two Deputies, Judith Suttling and Cllr Kevin Buck.

    "Finally, I would like to thank the people of Southend West for placing their trust in me today.

    "Today’s vote is a clear mandate to build on Sir David’s legacy – making Southend safer, improving local health care, supporting small businesses, and most of all – making the most of our new city status."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    While we've got the middle-of-the-night lull, can I point any remaining denizens of the board to this lovely piece of wonderfulness: a dynamic map of the world as it has changed over the entire course of human history. Faintly mesmerising:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6Wu0Q7x5D0
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    dixiedean said:

    Wordle in 5.
    Not great but it's a win. Like Southend West perchance?

    Wordle in 2....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Oh no, not 86%!
  • Watching and reading remarks of MP-elect Anna Firth, and perceiving how she come across tonight to me, cannot help thinking that some Labour and Liberal Democratic supporter - current not historic - must have given her more than a handful of votes?

    Thus boosting her percentage, even with Boris on the downswing, which methinks was one reason for low turnout in constituency that was right on 2019 national average when Sir David, sadly in retrospect, ran his last hurrah.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Watching and reading remarks of MP-elect Anna Firth, and perceiving how she come across tonight to me, cannot help thinking that some Labour and Liberal Democratic supporter - current not historic - must have given her more than a handful of votes?

    Thus boosting her percentage, even with Boris on the downswing, which methinks was one reason for low turnout in constituency that was right on 2019 national average when Sir David, sadly in retrospect, ran his last hurrah.

    Definitely. A few Lab and LDs would have voted for her.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Sandpit said:

    Oh no, not 86%!

    It's like a rerun of the Brexit referendum!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    ·
    3h
    And this is all before the reshuffle.


    ===

    Jeez. Is he really going to attempt a reshuffle when power is draining away?

    For feck's sake Sunak, make the bloody move and get on with the end of this.

    Say what you will, no one ever complained about the placement of deckchairs on the Titanic.
    Yet there were people who thought better of having a second helping of dessert.

    New Thread.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Sandpit said:

    Oh no, not 86%!

    I did predict and bet on the over 80% band, though got turnout wrong at over 30%. So up on the contest modestly at the princely sum of £3.50.

    The By-election in Evington (Leicester) is interesting, and shows the continuing problems of the Labour Party in the Leicester East Constituency following the Claudia Webbe fiasco. She was an unpopular imposition under Corbyn. It is in this constituency in nearby Humberstone that the city elected a Conservative councilor last year. He hasn't made much impact, turning up at 29% of expected attendances.

    Evington is the poshest bit of the constituency, being mostly detached and semi detached housing around the Leicester General Hospital, and the best state schools in the city. It is mixed ethnically, mostly middle class. The sort of place where Sunak might be popular.

    To keep perspective though, the LP has 52 of 54 Council seats, held this one, and the rest of the constituency is much more inner city working class of all ethnicities. Leicester East will stay Labour at the GE, unless the local Labour party does something seriously fratricidal.



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Wonder what happened here

    Ancoats & Beswick (Manchester) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 53.2% (+31.0)
    LAB: 37.9% (-20.6)
    GRN: 5.7% (-5.3)
    CON: 3.2% (-5.2)

    Votes cast: 2,091

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Wonder what happened here too

    Evington (Leicester) council by-election result:

    LAB: 38.8% (-15.4)
    CON: 34.4% (+12.9)
    LDEM: 20.7% (+12.5)
    GRN: 5.0% (-7.1)
    FBM: 1.1% (+1.1)

    Votes cast: 4,014
This discussion has been closed.