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Punters increasingly think Johnson’s days are numbered – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    Sorry to hear that BJO. We escaped that thankfully.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday that finished the Tories for a generation, although it was a factor.

    More Blair and New Labour being a credible centrist government and the fact the Tories had been in power for over 13 years by that time so the electoral cycle inevitably turned the other way.

    If Starmer becomes PM and is crap at it the Tories will quickly go back ahead in the polls regardless of whether the Tories remove Boris now or not
    It was a one-two
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    Nope. It was John Smith looking like the kind of Edinburgh Captain Mainwaring bank manager who'd never allow such a fiasco as much as Black Wednesday itself. And the contrast with Kinnock.
    The remarkable thing is how the polls continued to drift thereafter.
    The Tories were extremely fortunate they had Major as ring master for that circus. He, alone, prevented a Canada style blowout.
    Which is why the current PM must go if you are a sentient Tory.
    And must stay if you are partisan Labour.
    I don't disagree that the opposition cannot overtake the government until it removes its clown shoes. As Starmer seems to have done now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Surely the last pre Blair Gallup poll versus the first post Blair leadership Gallup poll is a better metric.
    HYUFD has a fixed view on all matters
  • "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    It must be nice to have that interdimensional portal where you're able to slip through and find out what would have happened had hypothetical events happened or not happened. We all value your reporting these back to us.
    Tell me, have you yet found a universe where you don't constantly spout nonsense?
    The Tories lost by a landslide in 1945 but by 1950 against Attlee had slashed the Labour majority.

    The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.

    The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.

    Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
    Which is why we need to reform our electoral system so that a minority party can no longer hold majority power for so long.
  • Utter toadying twat and out of a job in 2024. No place for you sonny, in Sunak's administration.



    Peter Gibson MP
    @Gibbo4Darlo
    Great to see the change that @BorisJohnson promised in
    @10DowningStreet being delivered.


    https://twitter.com/Gibbo4Darlo/status/1489335158385872898
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Evening. Any news from Southend West?

    Sadly not.

    They couldn't even talk about turnout being 'brisk' for once.
    It must have been 'steady' then.

  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    Jon Craig at Southend

    Happy days.

    Thought that was BRigby's part of "ve worwld"?
    It's usually Jon Craig for by-elections. Beth Rigby's the political editor so too busy controlling the narrative during the day.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited February 2022

    "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    That website is shit - I can't read it for all the ads.

    If they happen to be correct (very unlikely) turnout must have been very very low - not brisk.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    FPT on the Washington Commanders name:

    The Washington Commanders has two main problems, as I see it.

    First, Gideon.

    Second, the W.C.? Really? I know their football has been in the toilet in recent years, but to call yourself the W.C. smacks of pathologically low self-esteem. Can just see Cowboy fans bringing porcelain thrones to games to taunt the Toileteers fans.

    PS Perhaps given the NFL's latest scandal, they should have gone with the Washington Whiteskins.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Cyclefree said:

    I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.

    Is that because they're a bit meh?

    If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?

    Nothing is making any headway against the shambles in No 10. I dimly recall there was some 'levelling-up' announcement earlier in the but what it was I can't remember...

    I presume since Putin doesn't seem prepared to sacrifice half an army in Ukraine, Johnson will turn to invoking Article 16 as a distraction next week; hanging suspected paedophiles will be announced the week after.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    JBriskin3 said:

    "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    That website is shit - I can't read it for all the ads.

    If they happen to be correct (very unlikely) turnout must have been very very low - not brisk.
    Its the Daily Mirror / Reach group "network" of local news sites as part of their approch to winning the internet news market..... totally unusable without adblock.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    It must be nice to have that interdimensional portal where you're able to slip through and find out what would have happened had hypothetical events happened or not happened. We all value your reporting these back to us.
    Tell me, have you yet found a universe where you don't constantly spout nonsense?
    The Tories lost by a landslide in 1945 but by 1950 against Attlee had slashed the Labour majority.

    The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.

    The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.

    Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
    Which is why we need to reform our electoral system so that a minority party can no longer hold majority power for so long.
    That just proves my point.

    PR also kills socialism as socialist Labour governments like those of 1945 to 1951 and 1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1979 could only ever win a majority under FPTP (as could Corbyn if he had won a few more seats in 2017).

    Blair was so successful precisely as he was more of a Liberal than a Socialist. Under PR most PMs would have to have Liberals in their governments, Labour or Tory
  • TimT said:

    FPT on the Washington Commanders name:

    The Washington Commanders has two main problems, as I see it.

    First, Gideon.

    Second, the W.C.? Really? I know their football has been in the toilet in recent years, but to call yourself the W.C. smacks of pathologically low self-esteem. Can just see Cowboy fans bringing porcelain thrones to games to taunt the Toileteers fans.

    PS Perhaps given the NFL's latest scandal, they should have gone with the Washington Whiteskins.

    I wonder if W.C. entered their thinking, I am guessing not.
  • Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    ·
    3h
    And this is all before the reshuffle.


    ===

    Jeez. Is he really going to attempt a reshuffle when power is draining away?

    For feck's sake Sunak, make the bloody move and get on with the end of this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    ·
    3h
    And this is all before the reshuffle.


    ===

    Jeez. Is he really going to attempt a reshuffle when power is draining away?

    For feck's sake Sunak, make the bloody move and get on with the end of this.

    Say what you will, no one ever complained about the placement of deckchairs on the Titanic.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.

    Is that because they're a bit meh?

    If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?

    Perhaps because the proposals are not a solution, just money being moved around a bit, "Here is a loan that I will force you to pay back" sounds more like something from the Mafia
    Yes - Sunak's not so brilliant suggestion. And yet he's so rated by some on here. I really don't get it. Granted he's probably better than the PM but that is not exactly a high bar is it?
    Given the tumultuous reception of Johnson on here when he was elevated, I think we can safely say that the judgement of the same people should not be relied on.

    The Tories need to march into the political oblivion for a decade while we try and survive the remnants of the Labour party and whoever they use as a coalition partner
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    It must be nice to have that interdimensional portal where you're able to slip through and find out what would have happened had hypothetical events happened or not happened. We all value your reporting these back to us.
    Tell me, have you yet found a universe where you don't constantly spout nonsense?
    The Tories lost by a landslide in 1945 but by 1950 against Attlee had slashed the Labour majority.

    The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.

    The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.

    Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
    Which is why we need to reform our electoral system so that a minority party can no longer hold majority power for so long.
    That just proves my point.

    PR also kills socialism as socialist Labour governments like those of 1945 to 1951 and 1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1979 could only ever win a majority under FPTP (as could Corbyn if he had won a few more seats in 2017).

    Blair was so successful precisely as he was more of a Liberal than a Socialist. Under PR most PMs would have to have Liberals in their governments, Labour or Tory
    Which Tory government would have won a majority under PR?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    ·
    3h
    And this is all before the reshuffle.


    ===

    Jeez. Is he really going to attempt a reshuffle when power is draining away?

    For feck's sake Sunak, make the bloody move and get on with the end of this.

    Why is there such blind trust in the bloke with a blind trust?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    There isn't a single poll with a Labour poll lead less than double digit from Nov 1993

    Excluding ICM (which has consistently lower Labour polling) there is exactly 1 (I think?) non-double digit poll lead from 19th Oct 1992, 4 weeks after Black Wednesday.
    Most polls under Smith still had the Tories close to 30%, it was only Blair who pushed them under 25% and Labour close to 60% by late 1994.

    Even if the margin closed it was only Blair who was able to win the scale of win Labour did in 1997. Smith would have got a majority of 100 at most not 179 as Blair did
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Sudolke is fun too - though I suspect always possible to get in three guesses. Proving this is (or not) will be a fun exercise.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    edited February 2022

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    Sorry to hear that BJO. We escaped that thankfully.
    Hope all goes as well as possible for you and your family Ben
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Calgie
    @christiancalgie
    ·
    3h
    And this is all before the reshuffle.


    ===

    Jeez. Is he really going to attempt a reshuffle when power is draining away?

    For feck's sake Sunak, make the bloody move and get on with the end of this.

    Say what you will, no one ever complained about the placement of deckchairs on the Titanic.
    Well, no. It was night. I imaging come the morning there would have been much consternation on deck as their favourite sun spot was now obscured from direct sunlight by 12km of seawater. I'd have complained, frankly.
    Gotcha - Farooq = problem customer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Watching LauraK on Newscast she seems a lot less uptight since her proposed defenestration. She also seems to have cast off her Johnson cheerleader's twirling baton.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited February 2022
    "The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent out of a total 66,354 electors.

    The counting is now underway, as all ballot boxes have been delivered and verified."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    It must be nice to have that interdimensional portal where you're able to slip through and find out what would have happened had hypothetical events happened or not happened. We all value your reporting these back to us.
    Tell me, have you yet found a universe where you don't constantly spout nonsense?
    The Tories lost by a landslide in 1945 but by 1950 against Attlee had slashed the Labour majority.

    The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.

    The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.

    Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
    Which is why we need to reform our electoral system so that a minority party can no longer hold majority power for so long.
    That just proves my point.

    PR also kills socialism as socialist Labour governments like those of 1945 to 1951 and 1964 to 1970 and 1974 to 1979 could only ever win a majority under FPTP (as could Corbyn if he had won a few more seats in 2017).

    Blair was so successful precisely as he was more of a Liberal than a Socialist. Under PR most PMs would have to have Liberals in their governments, Labour or Tory
    Which Tory government would have won a majority under PR?
    Which Labour government would have won a majority under PR?

    The Labour governments of 1945 or 1964 or 1974 would not have been as leftwing under PR as they would have needed Liberal support.

    Corbyn would have had zero chance of becoming PM under PR in 2017 as the LDs would have had the balance of power and refused to support him.
    He was only about 20 seats short under FPTP though as the SNP would have supported him.

    Should be pointed out though there would have been a Tory and UKIP government in 2015 under PR so we would have had Brexit anyway
  • Official turnout for the election confirmed
    The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent - 66,354 votes.

    The counting is now underway, as all ballot boxes have been delivered and verified.

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Official turnout for the election confirmed
    The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent - 66,354 votes.

    The counting is now underway, as all ballot boxes have been delivered and verified.

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    A bit better than I expected but still very low
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    JBriskin3 said:

    "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    That website is shit - I can't read it for all the ads.

    If they happen to be correct (very unlikely) turnout must have been very very low - not brisk.
    The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent of an electorate of 66,354.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday that finished the Tories for a generation, although it was a factor.

    More Blair and New Labour being a credible centrist government and the fact the Tories had been in power for over 13 years by that time so the electoral cycle inevitably turned the other way.

    If Starmer becomes PM and is crap at it the Tories will quickly go back ahead in the polls regardless of whether the Tories remove Boris now or not
    It was a one-two
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    Nope. It was John Smith looking like the kind of Edinburgh Captain Mainwaring bank manager who'd never allow such a fiasco as much as Black Wednesday itself. And the contrast with Kinnock.
    The remarkable thing is how the polls continued to drift thereafter.
    The Tories were extremely fortunate they had Major as ring master for that circus. He, alone, prevented a Canada style blowout.
    Which is why the current PM must go if you are a sentient Tory.
    And must stay if you are partisan Labour.
    I don't disagree that the opposition cannot overtake the government until it removes its clown shoes. As Starmer seems to have done now.
    Well yeah. Whatever you think of them, Smith and Blair were both credible PM'S, albeit in very different ways. Kinnock wasn't. Starmer is. In a very dull, worthy fashion. So is Sunak similarly.
    Game on I reckon.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited February 2022

    TimT said:

    FPT on the Washington Commanders name:

    The Washington Commanders has two main problems, as I see it.

    First, Gideon.

    Second, the W.C.? Really? I know their football has been in the toilet in recent years, but to call yourself the W.C. smacks of pathologically low self-esteem. Can just see Cowboy fans bringing porcelain thrones to games to taunt the Toileteers fans.

    PS Perhaps given the NFL's latest scandal, they should have gone with the Washington Whiteskins.

    I wonder if W.C. entered their thinking, I am guessing not.
    But given how big a hit the Handmaid's Tale is, and how close we came to living it with Trump, how could they not have thought about the connotations of Commanders from that? Do women have to choose between teal, red, brown and green?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    edited February 2022
    Less than 16k votes to count
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    That website is shit - I can't read it for all the ads.

    If they happen to be correct (very unlikely) turnout must have been very very low - not brisk.
    The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent of an electorate of 66,354.
    Does that mean they might indeed be done by 12.30?

    If so that's great news for me cus I didn't stock up on enough booze.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Turnout 24.0% in Southend, so slightly lower than Batley & Spen in 2016 at 25.8%.
  • "The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent - 66,354 votes.

    The counting is now underway, as all ballot boxes have been delivered and verified."

    Think the live blogger mistook total registration for ballots cast. Note in 2019 registered electors = 69,046

    Further note that 66,354 x 24.03% would = 15,945 ballots
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    This is really bad.

    Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.

    They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.

    It was not Black Wednesday

    More Blair
    Tony Blair didn't become Labour leader until 2 years after Black Wednesday.

    As they sing on the terraces, 'if y'know your history ...'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1993

    But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
    First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.

    First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.

    Thanks for proving my point
    Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.

    When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
    No it wasn't.

    Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.

    It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.

    There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.

    Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
    There isn't a single poll with a Labour poll lead less than double digit from Nov 1993

    Excluding ICM (which has consistently lower Labour polling) there is exactly 1 (I think?) non-double digit poll lead from 19th Oct 1992, 4 weeks after Black Wednesday.
    Most polls under Smith still had the Tories close to 30%, it was only Blair who pushed them under 25% and Labour close to 60% by late 1994.

    Even if the margin closed it was only Blair who was able to win the scale of win Labour did in 1997. Smith would have got a majority of 100 at most not 179 as Blair did
    Smith with a majority of 100. Or even 50, and we enter a very different timeline. We could have seen radical change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Turnout 24.0% in Southend, so slightly lower than Batley & Spen in 2016 at 25.8%.

    It is the lowest by election turnout since the 18% for the 2012 Manchester Central by election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Less than 16k votes to count

    Disgraceful comment.
    Fewer.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 2022
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    "It is estimated we could get a result as early as 12.30am."

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386

    That website is shit - I can't read it for all the ads.

    If they happen to be correct (very unlikely) turnout must have been very very low - not brisk.
    The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent of an electorate of 66,354.
    Does that mean they might indeed be done by 12.30?

    If so that's great news for me cus I didn't stock up on enough booze.
    Given the number of candidates who filed, could be one or more will be close to threshold for keeping deposit, which would mean extra counting regardless of margin of winning candidate.

    EDIT - live blogger did post that result could be available "as early as" 12.30am; but my comment still applies.

    Plus note such estimates are very elastic, but rarely end up shorter than looooonger.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Watching LauraK on Newscast she seems a lot less uptight since her proposed defenestration. She also seems to have cast off her Johnson cheerleader's twirling baton.

    Lost Laura and the RCP on the same day?
    The late Savile will be wanking in his grave at the hold he still has over Downing Street.
  • Shock LD gain in Manchester.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited February 2022
    Watching LauraK's interview with Sunak today. His schemes are b******* and he talks b*******, but he presents this b******* beautifully.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Watching LauraK's interview with Sunak today. His schemes are b******** and he talks b*******, but he presents this b******* beautifully.

    What Goldmans teaches its alumni
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    That is really amazing. One of the safest Labour seats in Manchester.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    LD representation doubles. Opposition up by 50%.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    TimT said:

    FPT on the Washington Commanders name:

    The Washington Commanders has two main problems, as I see it.

    First, Gideon.

    Second, the W.C.? Really? I know their football has been in the toilet in recent years, but to call yourself the W.C. smacks of pathologically low self-esteem. Can just see Cowboy fans bringing porcelain thrones to games to taunt the Toileteers fans.

    PS Perhaps given the NFL's latest scandal, they should have gone with the Washington Whiteskins.

    Three syllables. Not good. And it naturally abbreviates to, erm, "Commies".
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Right. A new day. Globle, Wordle, Worgle, Nerdle...
  • "The turnout for the Southend West by election was 24.03 per cent - 66,354 votes.

    The counting is now underway, as all ballot boxes have been delivered and verified."

    Think the live blogger mistook total registration for ballots cast. Note in 2019 registered electors = 69,046

    Further note that 66,354 x 24.03% would = 15,945 ballots
    I did edit my comment a few moments later :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Watching LauraK's interview with Sunak today. His schemes are b******** and he talks b*******, but he presents this b******* beautifully.

    What Goldmans teaches its alumni
    A very fair point.
  • The rest of us oinks have now been told ad nauseam to wait for the Met report before we can judge, but Johnson can get on and sack most of Downing Street.

    Eh?
  • Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    BJO will use this as proof that Starmer's going to lose the next election.
  • Cookie said:

    Right. A new day. Globle, Wordle, Worgle, Nerdle...

    More Bollxle from Johnson no doubt.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    I expected a Lib Dem gain in Cotswold - instead it came in Manchester. The world is turned upside down.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Con hold in Cotswold. The battle of the next door neighbours. Blue door beats yellow.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Applicant said:

    MrBristol said:

    Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?

    Is there one platform/language that can cover both?

    Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.

    If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.

    It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.

    I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
    I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).

    Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms :)

    MrB
    FPT just to say:

    Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.

    I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...

    Oh...
    Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
    Lucky guess!

    Anyone tried Nerdle?

    https://nerdlegame.com

    I quite like it. Should be right up the PB Coding Club's street.
    Got my first 5 today after starting with three straight 6s. It's fun.
    Started with a 5. Should have been a 4 but I made a schoolboy error. I reckon a 3 is going to be really tough
    I've played 7 times.

    6 first time
    5 second time
    4 third time
    followed by 3 four times in a row. I honestly find it really easy to picture the right word.

    I don't think this game is about intelligence or vocabulary. It's about picture thinking. Well, that is a kind of intelligence but just one kind.
    I'm talking about Nerdle not Wordle. Givie it a try: https://nerdlegame.com
    Woo! That's intense.
    I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
    Got it in 4 - at last my PhD comes good :). Or...lucky with getting the last 2 on the first go...
  • Mail reporting that the mass sackings were brought forward by a week in order to deflect from Munira resignation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    slade said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    That is really amazing. One of the safest Labour seats in Manchester.
    It's not as if Manchester couldn't do with a bit of opposition on the council...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    Yes. Ancoats was the bit you said your prayers in order to get to Longsight 20 years ago.
    My eldest, who went to uni there till this Summer, described it as "where the rich kids live." New Islington.
  • Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    I just checked and the Lib Dems did win Beswick and Clayton in the 1990s.

    I'm guessing this by election is to do with the circumstances of the by election (bullying allegations) and a strong local LD campaign.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    Just looked the story up - caused by a resignation of a Labour councillor who had clearly fallen out with the party as a whole.
    This report sets the story up:
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
    The LD candidate has a particularly horrible beard.
    He mentions affordable housing - this is a particular bone of contention where quite affluent neighbourhoods are developing adjacent to neighbourhoods which are very much not - i.e. here.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    The Starmer slur effect?
  • Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."




    Drowning Street.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    I just checked and the Lib Dems did win Beswick and Clayton in the 1990s.

    I'm guessing this by election is to do with the circumstances of the by election (bullying allegations) and a strong local LD campaign.
    Ah - your research beats my airy claims. I take it back.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    Just looked the story up - caused by a resignation of a Labour councillor who had clearly fallen out with the party as a whole.
    This report sets the story up:
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
    The LD candidate has a particularly horrible beard.
    He mentions affordable housing - this is a particular bone of contention where quite affluent neighbourhoods are developing adjacent to neighbourhoods which are very much not - i.e. here.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
    A Liberal with a beard?
    Some things remain comfortingly constant in a world of frightening Ancoats impermanence.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    Huge Lib Dem hold in Dacoram -Boxmoor.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."




    Drowning Street.

    Coronation Street more like.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Heathener said:

    Applicant said:

    MrBristol said:

    Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?

    Is there one platform/language that can cover both?

    Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.

    If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.

    It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.

    I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
    I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).

    Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms :)

    MrB
    FPT just to say:

    Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.

    I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...

    Oh...
    Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
    Lucky guess!

    Anyone tried Nerdle?

    https://nerdlegame.com

    I quite like it. Should be right up the PB Coding Club's street.
    Got my first 5 today after starting with three straight 6s. It's fun.
    Started with a 5. Should have been a 4 but I made a schoolboy error. I reckon a 3 is going to be really tough
    I've played 7 times.

    6 first time
    5 second time
    4 third time
    followed by 3 four times in a row. I honestly find it really easy to picture the right word.

    I don't think this game is about intelligence or vocabulary. It's about picture thinking. Well, that is a kind of intelligence but just one kind.
    I'm talking about Nerdle not Wordle. Givie it a try: https://nerdlegame.com
    Thanks for this. Didn't occur to me you could have other versions of the game.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."

    Sorry, love. You’re gonna have to pay for your own wallpaper from now on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."


    Drowning Street.

    Hmm, I feel uneasy about that report. We were talking about goldfish bowls earlier - it's rough if you can't have an argument in your own home without people rushing to the press. Not the first time - there was that creepy neighbour before he was PM who actually recorded them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Shock LD gain in Manchester.

    Where?
    Ancoats and Beswick.
    Not the same as 20 years ago.
    No. Very different.
    LDs had a not inconsiderable presence on MCC 15 years or so back - but I don't think they have ever held Ancoats and Beswick or that area of the city.
    For pretty much its whole life, Ancoats has been pretty working class, or industrial. Now it is gentrified beyond belief.
    Beswick however is very much still not. Not natural LD territory at all.
    Just looked the story up - caused by a resignation of a Labour councillor who had clearly fallen out with the party as a whole.
    This report sets the story up:
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
    The LD candidate has a particularly horrible beard.
    He mentions affordable housing - this is a particular bone of contention where quite affluent neighbourhoods are developing adjacent to neighbourhoods which are very much not - i.e. here.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/candidates-standing-ancoats-beswick-election-22859258
    A Liberal with a beard?
    Some things remain comfortingly constant in a world of frightening Ancoats impermanence.
    I don't know if you have yet checked the story, but it starts with a picture of the four candidates - Con, LD,Green, Lab - unlabelled. But it's very easy to guess by stereotype who is from which party. I half suspect they've just used generic photos from stock.
  • Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    When my oldest friend died last year without a will and with no relatives the Nottingham Building Society refused the executors appointed by the coroner access to his account even though they had a paying in book showing how much money he had in there. They claimed that because he had not provided an update on his details under the anti-money laundering rules the account was permanently frozen. A group of us clubbed together to pay for his funeral. They eventually (several months after he was cremated) released enough money to pay back the funeral costs but kept the rest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited February 2022
    Both Wordle and nerdle in 3
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited February 2022

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Applicant said:

    MrBristol said:

    Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?

    Is there one platform/language that can cover both?

    Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.

    If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.

    It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.

    I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
    I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).

    Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms :)

    MrB
    FPT just to say:

    Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.

    I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...

    Oh...
    Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
    Lucky guess!

    Anyone tried Nerdle?

    https://nerdlegame.com

    I quite like it. Should be right up the PB Coding Club's street.
    Got my first 5 today after starting with three straight 6s. It's fun.
    Started with a 5. Should have been a 4 but I made a schoolboy error. I reckon a 3 is going to be really tough
    I've played 7 times.

    6 first time
    5 second time
    4 third time
    followed by 3 four times in a row. I honestly find it really easy to picture the right word.

    I don't think this game is about intelligence or vocabulary. It's about picture thinking. Well, that is a kind of intelligence but just one kind.
    I'm talking about Nerdle not Wordle. Givie it a try: https://nerdlegame.com
    Woo! That's intense.
    I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
    Got it in 4 - at last my PhD comes good :). Or...lucky with getting the last 2 on the first go...
    Either I got lucky or that's easier than it first appears. I had the right answer by round 2 but two numbers swapped (same answer either way), so managed it in 3.

    Getting the equals sign in the right place limits the solutions quite quickly I suspect.


    Wordle I don't think should take more than 4 unless you are really unlucky. I can't see the craze lasting very long once someone cranks out a clone that runs more than daily.
  • Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."


    Drowning Street.

    Hmm, I feel uneasy about that report. We were talking about goldfish bowls earlier - it's rough if you can't have an argument in your own home without people rushing to the press. Not the first time - there was that creepy neighbour before he was PM who actually recorded them.
    Rishi?
  • Cookie said:

    Right. A new day. Globle, Wordle, Worgle, Nerdle...

    Is that head of post-reshuffle Boris Johnson cabinet list?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    I suppose the first question the Tory winner in Southend will be asked is "Are you going to write a letter?"
  • Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."


    Drowning Street.

    Hmm, I feel uneasy about that report. We were talking about goldfish bowls earlier - it's rough if you can't have an argument in your own home without people rushing to the press. Not the first time - there was that creepy neighbour before he was PM who actually recorded them.
    If you live next to or anywhere within earshot of noisy and/or obnoxious neighbors, it is NOT your fault when you hear them doing what comes naturally to noisy and/or obnoxious people.

    And if it's bad enough, recording what you hear & see is prudent, not creepy. (Could be both, but just saying.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    When my oldest friend died last year without a will and with no relatives the Nottingham Building Society refused the executors appointed by the coroner access to his account even though they had a paying in book showing how much money he had in there. They claimed that because he had not provided an update on his details under the anti-money laundering rules the account was permanently frozen. A group of us clubbed together to pay for his funeral. They eventually (several months after he was cremated) released enough money to pay back the funeral costs but kept the rest.
    The rules of intestacy do not include "Nottingham Building society".
    After paying funeral costs, the remainder of the estate is due to the Crown ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Wordle in 5.
    Not great but it's a win. Like Southend West perchance?
  • I suppose the first question the Tory winner in Southend will be asked is "Are you going to write a letter?"

    R.B.Greaves - Take A Letter Maria
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFsULpx0To
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."




    Drowning Street.

    Johnson is gross, it was a betrayal, so doesn't Carrie have a point?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Lab hold in Leicester.
    Rumours of a swing to the Tories, mind.
    Labour vote still jelly soft.
    LD not. NOTA?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    When my oldest friend died last year without a will and with no relatives the Nottingham Building Society refused the executors appointed by the coroner access to his account even though they had a paying in book showing how much money he had in there. They claimed that because he had not provided an update on his details under the anti-money laundering rules the account was permanently frozen. A group of us clubbed together to pay for his funeral. They eventually (several months after he was cremated) released enough money to pay back the funeral costs but kept the rest.
    I was the sole Executor and sole beneficiary but they still managed to hang on to my mum's money for well over 3 months and a month after probate. Set of bastards imo.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    I see Labour has won a town council seat in Lewes, Sussex for the first time for (I think) decades (LD stronghold).
  • 00.39 Conservative Party candidate Anna Firth has arrived at the venue.

    She greeted conservative councillors and then also spoke to the police who are providing security at the venue.

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
  • Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."




    Drowning Street.

    Johnson is gross, it was a betrayal, so doesn't Carrie have a point?
    Is it really a betrayal, if the one you betrayed, betrayed you first?

    Boris Johnson has betrayed his country, party, cabinet, caucus, coworkers, etc., etc., etc.

    Even HYUFD, bless his heart.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Anecdote to warm the cockles (not)...

    As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.

    BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.

    Sigh...

    I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.

    Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.

    Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.

    Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
    When my oldest friend died last year without a will and with no relatives the Nottingham Building Society refused the executors appointed by the coroner access to his account even though they had a paying in book showing how much money he had in there. They claimed that because he had not provided an update on his details under the anti-money laundering rules the account was permanently frozen. A group of us clubbed together to pay for his funeral. They eventually (several months after he was cremated) released enough money to pay back the funeral costs but kept the rest.
    The rules of intestacy do not include "Nottingham Building society".
    After paying funeral costs, the remainder of the estate is due to the Crown ?
    Indeed. And we would have been content with that. We spent several months trying to trace any relatives and when we didn't find any the executors informed the authorities so they could dispose of the rest of his assets - which wasn't much. But last we heard and 6 months or so after it was all supposed to have been sorted out the Building Society was still hanging on to the balance of his funds.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Applicant said:

    MrBristol said:

    Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?

    Is there one platform/language that can cover both?

    Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.

    If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.

    It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.

    I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
    I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).

    Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms :)

    MrB
    FPT just to say:

    Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.

    I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...

    Oh...
    Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
    Lucky guess!

    Anyone tried Nerdle?

    https://nerdlegame.com

    I quite like it. Should be right up the PB Coding Club's street.
    Got my first 5 today after starting with three straight 6s. It's fun.
    Started with a 5. Should have been a 4 but I made a schoolboy error. I reckon a 3 is going to be really tough
    I've played 7 times.

    6 first time
    5 second time
    4 third time
    followed by 3 four times in a row. I honestly find it really easy to picture the right word.

    I don't think this game is about intelligence or vocabulary. It's about picture thinking. Well, that is a kind of intelligence but just one kind.
    I'm talking about Nerdle not Wordle. Givie it a try: https://nerdlegame.com
    Woo! That's intense.
    I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
    Got it in 4 - at last my PhD comes good :). Or...lucky with getting the last 2 on the first go...
    Either I got lucky or that's easier than it first appears. I had the right answer by round 2 but two numbers swapped (same answer either way), so managed it in 3.

    Getting the equals sign in the right place limits the solutions quite quickly I suspect.


    Wordle I don't think should take more than 4 unless you are really unlucky. I can't see the craze lasting very long once someone cranks out a clone that runs more than daily.
    Like this one:
    https://octokatherine.github.io/word-master/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    dixiedean said:

    Lab hold in Leicester.
    Rumours of a swing to the Tories, mind.
    Labour vote still jelly soft.
    LD not. NOTA?

    Far more a swing to the LDs it seems.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Mail: "One source said Mr Johnson's wife Carrie was overheard having a 'stand-up row' with Miss Mirza after she dropped her bombshell yesterday, feeling it was a gross betrayal."


    Drowning Street.

    Hmm, I feel uneasy about that report. We were talking about goldfish bowls earlier - it's rough if you can't have an argument in your own home without people rushing to the press. Not the first time - there was that creepy neighbour before he was PM who actually recorded them.
    If she was having an argument with an employee of her husband about work matters, I don't see how it is due special privacy.

    I agree about the creepy neighbour.
  • 00.55 Spoilt ballots being counted
    The result of the election is not far away. The spoilt ballots on each table are being counted, before moving onto the rest of the results and the election of the winner.

    Once the result is ready, we will be live streaming the winner being elected and their speech from the podium on our Facebook page here. https://www.facebook.com/essexlivenews

    https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab hold in Leicester.
    Rumours of a swing to the Tories, mind.
    Labour vote still jelly soft.
    LD not. NOTA?

    Far more a swing to the LDs it seems.
    14.2% swing Lab to Con
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab hold in Leicester.
    Rumours of a swing to the Tories, mind.
    Labour vote still jelly soft.
    LD not. NOTA?

    Far more a swing to the LDs it seems.
    14.2% swing Lab to Con
    14% Lab to LD
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 2022
    In the interval before we get SeW results, wish to commend LOCAL media outlets in UK for providing up-to-minute reporting of recent by-elections.

    Thank you!

    EDIT - result expected shortly . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Tories have definitely won the seat. No surprise there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lab hold in Leicester.
    Rumours of a swing to the Tories, mind.
    Labour vote still jelly soft.
    LD not. NOTA?

    Far more a swing to the LDs it seems.
    14.2% Lab to Con 14% Lab to LD
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    25.8% Lab to LD swing in Manchester LD Gain
  • My guess is that further delay in SeW due to checking to determine if candidate(s) did or did not make threshold to get their deposit(s) back.
This discussion has been closed.