One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
I think the most likely outcome is that he survives the vote of confidence (if we get that far) and he and goes on for another year. If they are struggling to get 54 letters in how are they going to get 100+ more MPs to vote to remove him? When will be the 'right' time? He will just limp on.
It’s a secret ballot.
Yes, but there seems an assumption that once the trigger is pulled a majority will go for it, on the basis of them being 'hostile' or whatever, but look what happened with May - sure, she went eventually, but the threshold being reached didn't mean a majority rose up when given the chance.
She probably had fewer enemies than Boris.
I've said before that there is a deep fear on the part of the PCP of replacing him - because their survival as a party is down to what he achieved in 2019. The appeal of Truss and Sunak is pretty shallow, are they really going to win in the red wall?
No one will know until they try.
Much of the area was trending toward the Tories for a long time anyway. It's possible that may reverse, but hard evidence is hard to come by, but even if others wont appeal to them as well as Boris did (but may not be appealing now), simply not repelling them now might save a lot of seats, and save a majority.
Most of the redwall is probably gone back to Labour now anyway.
Sunak at best could scrape a narrow majority a la Major 1992, more likely he would win most seats in a hung parliament but Starmer still becomes PM with SNP and LD support
That's about my take too, Hyufd.
I suspect that's about as it's going to get for your Party now though, but it's a damn sight better than political oblivion, which I believe is distinctly possible if you don't do something about Boris, and quick.
I think the most likely outcome is that he survives the vote of confidence (if we get that far) and he and goes on for another year. If they are struggling to get 54 letters in how are they going to get 100+ more MPs to vote to remove him? When will be the 'right' time? He will just limp on.
It’s a secret ballot.
Yes, but there seems an assumption that once the trigger is pulled a majority will go for it, on the basis of them being 'hostile' or whatever, but look what happened with May - sure, she went eventually, but the threshold being reached didn't mean a majority rose up when given the chance.
She probably had fewer enemies than Boris.
I've said before that there is a deep fear on the part of the PCP of replacing him - because their survival as a party is down to what he achieved in 2019. The appeal of Truss and Sunak is pretty shallow, are they really going to win in the red wall?
No one will know until they try.
Much of the area was trending toward the Tories for a long time anyway. It's possible that may reverse, but hard evidence is hard to come by, but even if others wont appeal to them as well as Boris did (but may not be appealing now), simply not repelling them now might save a lot of seats, and save a majority.
Fair points - it is true that Boris effectively took forward and delivered a strategy set up by Theresa May. I think that, in power, it has been harder to reconcile the interests of the red wall constituents with that of the wealthy southern base of the conservative party and its economic instincts, and this will continue to be a problem for whoever takes over.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
I have been starstruck since summer 2020 when I was on the same CalMac ferry as him. His furlough scheme had done amazing things to stop businesses collapsing. And then he got on board with his team - fabulously well-organised people shooting very professional spin stuff.
And then he started talking to people. He's an actual human being. Unlike so many of today's Tories (cf HY) he gave every sense of getting life. He got that job because Javid failed to give fealty to BJ. Sunak gave it, and immediately created the best team in Downing Street to create his own image and promote his own policies.
There are good people and bad people in every party. Sunak is Good People. We need him as a nation because just can't cope with more of Johnson.
Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.
They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.
It was not Black Wednesday that finished the Tories for a generation, although it was a factor.
More Blair and New Labour being a credible centrist government and the fact the Tories had been in power for over 13 years by that time so the electoral cycle inevitably turned the other way.
If Starmer becomes PM and is crap at it the Tories will quickly go back ahead in the polls regardless of whether the Tories remove Boris now or not
It was a one-two punch. John Smith became leader in July '92. Transforming Tory leads of 6-7 into very much nip and tuck parity. Black Wednesday was in September. There was one tie, and one rogue Tory lead in Jan '93 after that. None of this was to do with Blair. He just drove Labour to 62% and a mere 43.5% lead. What was remarkable was how quickly and decisively sentiment turned on the election of a credible LOTO. Course. There wasn't a pandemic then.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rifkind says the doubts about the PM’s basic competence are something unique in British politics, as far back as records go.
Asked about the chances of Downing Street getting back on track under Johnson, Rifkind says it cannot be done.
There’s no point in waiting, and prolonging this agony for weeks and months, he says. The MPs must know already whether they have confidence in him, or not.
People ask, “how will we know when the pandemic is over?”
Perhaps the answer is when Question Time removes its glass screens?
They are extremely irritating. Surely massively ineffective for an airborne virus that lingers in the air. Far better to have decent ventilation. I note bbc news programmes are fine to interview face to face now, as on news night.
Rifkind says the PM has become toxic even among his allies
Why work for him now? At some point there will be another fuck up and you will be thrown on the bonfire rather than him taking the blame or admitting fault.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
(And I speak as someone who voted solidly Tory through those years because I hated what Blair was doing to the political discourse.)
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
That's what I think too. I don't think there's any reservoir of popularity or affection for Starmer - Labour's lead is due to Boris.
People ask, “how will we know when the pandemic is over?”
Perhaps the answer is when Question Time removes its glass screens?
They are extremely irritating. Surely massively ineffective for an airborne virus that lingers in the air. Far better to have decent ventilation. I note bbc news programmes are fine to interview face to face now, as on news night.
Indeed it’s unique to QT. All the politicos lean around them. It’s bizarre.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
I think this is his "installing the telephones" moment. His goose is cooked.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
That's what I think too. I don't think there's any reservoir of popularity or affection for Starmer - Labour's lead is due to Boris.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
I think this is his "installing the telephones" moment. His goose is cooked.
Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?
Is there one platform/language that can cover both?
Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.
If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.
It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.
I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).
Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms
MrB
FPT just to say:
Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.
I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...
Oh...
Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
Woo! That's intense. I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
I think this is his "installing the telephones" moment. His goose is cooked.
For the benefit of younger readers, that translates as buying a box of burner phones.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
He can kill the jobs tax and fix NI in a single move. Accept that the EU have adopted all the UK's regulatory alignments, lift the EU red tape burden, allow trade to flow freely with a new EU trade deal.
We boost the economy which allows him to scrap the NI increase and fixes NI. Strengthens the Union, allows more levelling up money to be spent, everyone feels good, massive Sunak surge, Starmer almost as bad as BJO says.
Or - don't resign, leave the fat fucker in Number 10 and get Osborned when someone else finally grows a spine and becomes the new PM.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
That's what I think too. I don't think there's any reservoir of popularity or affection for Starmer - Labour's lead is due to Boris.
Any new PM will get a honeymoon and then off we go again. Brutal reality 12 years and 4 PMs in is that things are looking a little care worn and shite.
Rifkind says the doubts about the PM’s basic competence are something unique in British politics, as far back as records go.
Asked about the chances of Downing Street getting back on track under Johnson, Rifkind says it cannot be done.
There’s no point in waiting, and prolonging this agony for weeks and months, he says.
Doubts? Half of PB was certain that Boris's record pre-PM was a sure guide that raising him to the Premiership would be an unmitigated disaster.
His shambolic spell as FS was an almighty clue, FFS.
It's why I've got not time for his apologists who come out with crap like "maybe it's long Covid". No, the man was a turd before Covid was a thing, and he's a turd still.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
That's what I think too. I don't think there's any reservoir of popularity or affection for Starmer - Labour's lead is due to Boris.
I am not sure the Tory members are sensible enough to select Sunak.
In any event the economic headwinds for the next two years are going to be immense.
Boris on Channel 5 News not apologising - "all I have said" followed by a lengthy lie about what he said - twice - and that smirk again...
I always wondered who their viewer was.
"Channel 5 - the channel that brings you England goals!" - Jonathan Pearce commentating on Poland v. England, 1997.
Not as good as his opening 10 seconds in 1993:
“Welcome to Bologna on Capital Gold for England versus San Marino with Tennent’s Pilsner, brewed with Czechoslovakian yeast for that extra Pilsner taste... and England are one down.”
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
I think this is his "installing the telephones" moment. His goose is cooked.
His goose is oven ready.
His goose is “on notice”, stuffed and buttered. Glass of claret on the side for the cook.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
Is that the same Jobs Tax Sunak came up with and fought tooth and nail to stop Johnson canning?
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
Indeed. I caught that moment on C4 News after a good day in town.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
This. 100x this.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
I think this is his "installing the telephones" moment. His goose is cooked.
His goose is oven ready.
His goose is “on notice”, stuffed and buttered. Glass of claret on the side for the cook.
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
That's what I think too. I don't think there's any reservoir of popularity or affection for Starmer - Labour's lead is due to Boris.
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
I have been starstruck since summer 2020 when I was on the same CalMac ferry as him. His furlough scheme had done amazing things to stop businesses collapsing. And then he got on board with his team - fabulously well-organised people shooting very professional spin stuff.
And then he started talking to people. He's an actual human being. Unlike so many of today's Tories (cf HY) he gave every sense of getting life. He got that job because Javid failed to give fealty to BJ. Sunak gave it, and immediately created the best team in Downing Street to create his own image and promote his own policies.
There are good people and bad people in every party. Sunak is Good People. We need him as a nation because just can't cope with more of Johnson.
I would like to believe you. Not that you are being dishonest or anything, just that I have my doubts about all politicians until they prove otherwise - which they rarely do. But right now I will just settle for someone who is not as utterly unsuitable as Johnson*. I would prefer that to be someone from the right of centre side of politics but anyone who is just serious, hard working and mildly honest would do whatever their party or politics.
*I have resorted to using the catchall word unsuitable as I am tired of repeating his myriad failings time and time again.
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
No it wasn't.
Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.
It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.
There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.
Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
Sunak truly is a conservative. He has looked at this and thought "what if I go too early?" - at risk his political career.
But now? If he *doesn't* go his career is done - he will be swept away with the boss. Sunak has said "I woudn't have said that" - so do something about it. BJ's decade plus adviser quitting and attacking the disgrace of the man is not him sweeping clean as is being spun.
The cost of living disaster. The NornIron disaster. The trade disaster. All need a new PM with the ability to John Major away the rank stupidity of the previous PM. But unless it happens quickly it will be too late.
Sunak has definitely lifted his head above the parapet. He has to go full on for it now.
I have been starstruck since summer 2020 when I was on the same CalMac ferry as him. His furlough scheme had done amazing things to stop businesses collapsing. And then he got on board with his team - fabulously well-organised people shooting very professional spin stuff.
And then he started talking to people. He's an actual human being. Unlike so many of today's Tories (cf HY) he gave every sense of getting life. He got that job because Javid failed to give fealty to BJ. Sunak gave it, and immediately created the best team in Downing Street to create his own image and promote his own policies.
There are good people and bad people in every party. Sunak is Good People. We need him as a nation because just can't cope with more of Johnson.
Looking backward into the not-too-distant future, in May 1940 do PBers think the Labour Party would have accepted the likes of Rishi Sunak as alternative to Neville Chamberlain as Prime Minister? As opposed to, say, Jacob Rees-Mogg or Lord Frost (in role of Lord Halifax)?
Like WSC before him, RS has served as CoE (one Office of State not even Tories are crazy enough to allow BJ anywhere near). Plus both with close ties to India, just in different ways which I think Churchill would have wit enough (in more ways than one) to appreciate (if not Enoch Powell).
Can the backbench MPs not take their lead from the Chancellor that Boris clearly needs to go ? Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business. I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Rishi takes over and kills the Jobs Tax, probably restores the Tory lead. But who am I to give them tips!!
He can kill the jobs tax and fix NI in a single move. Accept that the EU have adopted all the UK's regulatory alignments, lift the EU red tape burden, allow trade to flow freely with a new EU trade deal.
We boost the economy which allows him to scrap the NI increase and fixes NI. Strengthens the Union, allows more levelling up money to be spent, everyone feels good, massive Sunak surge, Starmer almost as bad as BJO says.
Or - don't resign, leave the fat fucker in Number 10 and get Osborned when someone else finally grows a spine and becomes the new PM.
Great post.
I wonder if Sunak is making those calculations now?
Rifkind says the doubts about the PM’s basic competence are something unique in British politics, as far back as records go.
Asked about the chances of Downing Street getting back on track under Johnson, Rifkind says it cannot be done.
There’s no point in waiting, and prolonging this agony for weeks and months, he says.
Doubts? Half of PB was certain that Boris's record pre-PM was a sure guide that raising him to the Premiership would be an unmitigated disaster.
His shambolic spell as FS was an almighty clue, FFS.
It's why I've got not time for his apologists who come out with crap like "maybe it's long Covid". No, the man was a turd before Covid was a thing, and he's a turd still.
But a floater no longer.
Still resisting every attempt to flush him out though.
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
This is mendacious even by your "standards". But let's look at it this way: in 1997 the Conservatives got more and Labour got less than the polling showed immediately before Blair became Labour leader.
Check fucking mate.
The polls would have been just as wrong under Smith.
They overestimated the Labour lead in 1997 as they did in 1992, just Labour won big so it was ignored. Only in 2001 were the polls a bit more accurate and by 2005 and 2010 nearly spot on
Boris on Channel 5 News not apologising - "all I have said" followed by a lengthy lie about what he said - twice - and that smirk again...
I always wondered who their viewer was.
I rather like Channel 5. Low-key programmes about old railway lines and national parks and things. AndPolice Interceptors is something of a guilty pleasure. I probably watch more Channel 5 than any of the other main channels.
Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.
They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.
It was not Black Wednesday that finished the Tories for a generation, although it was a factor.
More Blair and New Labour being a credible centrist government and the fact the Tories had been in power for over 13 years by that time so the electoral cycle inevitably turned the other way.
If Starmer becomes PM and is crap at it the Tories will quickly go back ahead in the polls regardless of whether the Tories remove Boris now or not
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
Nope. It was John Smith looking like the kind of Edinburgh Captain Mainwaring bank manager who'd never allow such a fiasco as much as Black Wednesday itself. And the contrast with Kinnock. The remarkable thing is how the polls continued to drift thereafter. The Tories were extremely fortunate they had Major as ring master for that circus. He, alone, prevented a Canada style blowout. Which is why the current PM must go if you are a sentient Tory. And must stay if you are partisan Labour.
One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
That was my take as well but is piling dead cats on top of dead cats to distract from failed dead cats (zombie cats?) making matters even worse? Four aides out in one day seems even worse than just Munira Mirza because it speaks of chaos at Number 10.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Perhaps because the proposals are not a solution, just money being moved around a bit, "Here is a loan that I will force you to pay back" sounds more like something from the Mafia
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
No it wasn't.
Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.
It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.
There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.
Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
It must be nice to have that interdimensional portal where you're able to slip through and find out what would have happened had hypothetical events happened or not happened. We all value your reporting these back to us. Tell me, have you yet found a universe where you don't constantly spout nonsense?
The Tories lost by a landslide in 1945 but by 1950 against Attlee had slashed the Labour majority.
The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.
The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.
Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
Interesting that the Johnson is up to his neck in shit and lies view also meets on frontpages with the Briton's face worst crisis on economics in years - energy etc etc
Basically: it's a mess and Sunak is sensible enough to clear it up unlike the Clown Liar.
Since it's technology night tonight on PB, what's the best platform for a very rusty old coder with a smattering of C and Java to have a crack at developing IOS and Android apps?
Is there one platform/language that can cover both?
Just fancy having a go at a couple of 'winter project' ideas.
If you want something cross-platform, look at Flutter.
It uses a language called Dart (basically a dialect of JavaScript) and it has the heft of Google behind it. You can trivially build for iOS and Android, and it'll even build Progressive Web Apps if you like.
I don't use it for anything that needs to get close to the metal, but for reasonably unambitious apps it's pretty good.
I can give a thumbs up for flutter if you after quick mobile apps (not tried the desktop stuff yet).
Much easier to get stuff done that objective-c/swift or java/kotlin. The main thing I like he having something works on iOS and Android without too much bother. Something quite depressing about implementing the same thing twice on two different platforms
MrB
FPT just to say:
Thanks All - I might give Flutter a flutter.
I've got this fantastic idea for a simple word game - five letters, six guesses, a new word every day,...
Oh...
Sounds rubbish, will never catch on. Did I say I got today's Wordle in 2.....
Woo! That's intense. I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
first time doing it and 5, got easier once I knew things were used more than once.
As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.
BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.
Sigh...
I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.
One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
That was my take as well but is piling dead cats on top of dead cats to distract from failed dead cats (zombie cats?) making matters even worse? Four aides out in one day seems even worse than just Munira Mirza because it speaks of chaos at Number 10.
Yes, “taking control” has turned into “disorganised shambles”
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Most people here dismissed as a bit crap on the morning thread.
My non-politically aware sounding board in real life didn't even notice it - all they got about energy was about how much things were increasing by, not any mitigation measures.
It's better than that 'exclusive' story some online magazine ran about how Prince Charles is ready to take over the throne when his mum dies, and sees it as his birthright no less.
Interesting that the Johnson is up to his neck in shit and lies view also meets on frontpages with the Briton's face worst crisis on economics in years - energy etc etc
Basically: it's a mess and Sunak is sensible enough to clear it up unlike the Clown Liar.
What about a windfall tax to grab back some of that £8.7bn wasted spaffed up the wall on PPE at extortionate prices? Pump the proceeds into short term energy subsidies.
Takes me back to Black Wednesday which basically finished the Conservatives for a generation.
They should have removed him weeks ago. It may now be too late to save the brand.
It was not Black Wednesday that finished the Tories for a generation, although it was a factor.
More Blair and New Labour being a credible centrist government and the fact the Tories had been in power for over 13 years by that time so the electoral cycle inevitably turned the other way.
If Starmer becomes PM and is crap at it the Tories will quickly go back ahead in the polls regardless of whether the Tories remove Boris now or not
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
Nope. It was John Smith looking like the kind of Edinburgh Captain Mainwaring bank manager who'd never allow such a fiasco as much as Black Wednesday itself. And the contrast with Kinnock. The remarkable thing is how the polls continued to drift thereafter. The Tories were extremely fortunate they had Major as ring master for that circus. He, alone, prevented a Canada style blowout. Which is why the current PM must go if you are a sentient Tory. And must stay if you are partisan Labour.
It was introducing a very unpopular tax which led to the Tories trouncing in Canada in 1993 as their voters went to the populist right Reform Party. Turning landslide defeat to the Liberals into annihilation.
Replacing Mulroney with Kim Campbell brought a brief bounce but made zero long term difference
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Another reason for Sunak not to be chancellor and go for the leadership.
It's why it's now (next week or so) or never. Unless Boris goes quickly the leadership election will be being decided as the first 2022/3 pay pockets appear rather emptier than before.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Another reason for Sunak not to be chancellor and go for the leadership.
It's why it's now (next week or so) or never. Unless Boris goes quickly the leadership election will be being decided as the first 2022/3 pay pockets appear rather emptier than before.
One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
That was my take as well but is piling dead cats on top of dead cats to distract from failed dead cats (zombie cats?) making matters even worse? Four aides out in one day seems even worse than just Munira Mirza because it speaks of chaos at Number 10.
Yes, “taking control” has turned into “disorganised shambles”
It's one thing to clear the decks. It's another to realise your deck is completely empty when you have to play a card.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Perhaps because the proposals are not a solution, just money being moved around a bit, "Here is a loan that I will force you to pay back" sounds more like something from the Mafia
Yes - Sunak's not so brilliant suggestion. And yet he's so rated by some on here. I really don't get it. Granted he's probably better than the PM but that is not exactly a high bar is it?
One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
That was my take as well but is piling dead cats on top of dead cats to distract from failed dead cats (zombie cats?) making matters even worse? Four aides out in one day seems even worse than just Munira Mirza because it speaks of chaos at Number 10.
It might have worked a little in the wider context had she not gone, Big Boris J taking charge etc, but the quitter ruins that narrative and renders the other action suspect, and so makes no sense as a distraction technique to get rid of others - well timed indeed.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Most people here dismissed as a bit crap on the morning thread.
My non-politically aware sounding board in real life didn't even notice it - all they got about energy was about how much things were increasing by, not any mitigation measures.
Yes. The cost of living has become the new pandemic as regards go to small talk in my circles.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Perhaps because the proposals are not a solution, just money being moved around a bit, "Here is a loan that I will force you to pay back" sounds more like something from the Mafia
Yes - Sunak's not so brilliant suggestion. And yet he's so rated by some on here. I really don't get it. Granted he's probably better than the PM but that is not exactly a high bar is it?
People will take what they can get. He's superficially plausible, reasonably well spoken and not inherently unlikable, and who gives a damn about policy anyway, so for anyone looking for a quick fix away from Boris it makes sense.
As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.
BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.
Sigh...
I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.
As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.
BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.
Sigh...
I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.
As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.
BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.
Sigh...
I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.
Eon were great when my mum died. A cheque sent to me within a couple of days.
Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.
Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
That might be too late, but I think that's the game he's playing
Why? They may not do too badly. These are the set a Tory Party behind in the polls would choose after all. He's either fit for office or he isn't. 3 months won't change that.
I notice that no-one has talked about Sunak's energy proposals today.
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
Perhaps because the proposals are not a solution, just money being moved around a bit, "Here is a loan that I will force you to pay back" sounds more like something from the Mafia
Yes - Sunak's not so brilliant suggestion. And yet he's so rated by some on here. I really don't get it. Granted he's probably better than the PM but that is not exactly a high bar is it?
Leaving aside policies, Rishi is the most popular Conservative with the public, as opinion polls show. He looks smart, intelligent and answers questions honestly. You might almost say he looks prime ministerial.
But I don't expect you to admit you got it wrong (again) HY. You take after your dear leader.
First Gallup poll after Black Wednesday, Labour 42% Conservatives 37%.
First Gallup poll after Blair became Labour leader, Labour 56% Conservatives 23%.
Thanks for proving my point
Oh, come on. Solid Tory leads for poll after poll, bit of MoE crossover, then Black Weds brings about solid Labour leads drifting up and up and up.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
No it wasn't.
Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.
It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.
There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.
Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
There isn't a single poll with a Labour poll lead less than double digit from Nov 1993
Excluding ICM (which has consistently lower Labour polling) there is exactly 1 (I think?) non-double digit poll lead from 19th Oct 1992, 4 weeks after Black Wednesday.
One @10DowningStreet insider tells me the departures of Reynolds, Rosenfield & Doyle are a “deliberate distraction” to divert attention from Mirza’s principled decision over another @BorisJohnson unforced error. Mirza wasn't implicated in “partygate” after all
That was my take as well but is piling dead cats on top of dead cats to distract from failed dead cats (zombie cats?) making matters even worse? Four aides out in one day seems even worse than just Munira Mirza because it speaks of chaos at Number 10.
Yes, “taking control” has turned into “disorganised shambles”
It's one thing to clear the decks. It's another to realise your deck is completely empty when you have to play a card.
Comments
Nerdle in 4, wordle in 5 for me today
Why anyone gives him one iota of loyalty given his track record is utterly beyond me.
I mean what do the women think? This time he will be different?
I suspect that's about as it's going to get for your Party now though, but it's a damn sight better than political oblivion, which I believe is distinctly possible if you don't do something about Boris, and quick.
He now needs to complete the job, or forever live in regret.
And then he started talking to people. He's an actual human being. Unlike so many of today's Tories (cf HY) he gave every sense of getting life. He got that job because Javid failed to give fealty to BJ. Sunak gave it, and immediately created the best team in Downing Street to create his own image and promote his own policies.
There are good people and bad people in every party. Sunak is Good People. We need him as a nation because just can't cope with more of Johnson.
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1489368239595474944?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
Not that they'd be drinking Coors Lights
John Smith became leader in July '92. Transforming Tory leads of 6-7 into very much nip and tuck parity.
Black Wednesday was in September. There was one tie, and one rogue Tory lead in Jan '93 after that.
None of this was to do with Blair. He just drove Labour to 62% and a mere 43.5% lead.
What was remarkable was how quickly and decisively sentiment turned on the election of a credible LOTO.
Course. There wasn't a pandemic then.
Rishi is dropping hints like noone's business.
I mean they don't have to vote for Rishi, but he's right.
Asked about the chances of Downing Street getting back on track under Johnson, Rifkind says it cannot be done.
There’s no point in waiting, and prolonging this agony for weeks and months, he says. The MPs must know already whether they have confidence in him, or not.
He has to move and seize the day or he will never be leader.
When Blair takes over he gets another bump into Landslide territory, but it is undoubtedly Black Weds that is the final knife-thrust that slays the Tory brand for a generation.
- Jonathan Pearce commentating on Poland v. England, 1997.
I managed it in 6, but was helped by a lucky break in the fourth round where I finally got the equals in the right place AND guessed the answer too. I don't fancy my chances tomorrow.
We boost the economy which allows him to scrap the NI increase and fixes NI. Strengthens the Union, allows more levelling up money to be spent, everyone feels good, massive Sunak surge, Starmer almost as bad as BJO says.
Or - don't resign, leave the fat fucker in Number 10 and get Osborned when someone else finally grows a spine and becomes the new PM.
In any event the economic headwinds for the next two years are going to be immense.
Starmer has to be fave for PM after GE24.
“Welcome to Bologna on Capital Gold for England versus San Marino with Tennent’s Pilsner, brewed with Czechoslovakian yeast for that extra Pilsner taste... and England are one down.”
Is that the same Jobs Tax Sunak came up with and fought tooth and nail to stop Johnson canning?
https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
*I have resorted to using the catchall word unsuitable as I am tired of repeating his myriad failings time and time again.
Pre Blair Labour was ahead under John Smith but only say by the margin Kinnock was often ahead over Thatcher or Wilson was ahead over Heath.
It took Blair to get Labour into consistent double digit leads and sometimes even over 50%. He reached middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and probably would never vote Labour again.
There is a reason Blair was the only Labour leader to win 3 consecutive general elections with clear majorities too, 2 with landslides.
Had John Smith lived Labour would not have won as big in 1997 and the Tories would likely have seen more of a recovery in 2001
Like WSC before him, RS has served as CoE (one Office of State not even Tories are crazy enough to allow BJ anywhere near). Plus both with close ties to India, just in different ways which I think Churchill would have wit enough (in more ways than one) to appreciate (if not Enoch Powell).
I wonder if Sunak is making those calculations now?
Go hard, or go home.
The first ballot box from the polling stations has arrived at the count.
We're expecting more to be arriving soon for verification.
https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/southend-west-election-live-updates-6593386
Is that because they're a bit meh?
If Sunak did become PM who on earth would want to be Chancellor with everything that's coming down the line?
They overestimated the Labour lead in 1997 as they did in 1992, just Labour won big so it was ignored. Only in 2001 were the polls a bit more accurate and by 2005 and 2010 nearly spot on
I probably watch more Channel 5 than any of the other main channels.
They couldn't even talk about turnout being 'brisk' for once.
The remarkable thing is how the polls continued to drift thereafter.
The Tories were extremely fortunate they had Major as ring master for that circus. He, alone, prevented a Canada style blowout.
Which is why the current PM must go if you are a sentient Tory.
And must stay if you are partisan Labour.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1489374389405581313?s=20&t=OoxHxT__z1uvzlbnJin5aw
Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
·
25m
Exclusive:
Cabinet ministers rate Boris Johnson’s chances of survival as 50/50 after carnage in No 10
‘It feels like the end, it’s all falling apart,’ said one
Another said it’s ‘difficult to tell’ whether the PM can stay on
Westminster febrile tonight…
Happy days.
The Tories lost in 1964 and 1966 heavily but won the 1970 general election just 4 years later.
The Tories lost in 1974 but were back in power in 1979.
Blair is the only Labour leader ever to be re elected by a big majority and to win 3 consecutive terms. The reason is he appealed to middle class voters who had never voted Labour before and likely never will again, even for Starmer. If they don't vote Tory at most those voters will go LD not Labour post Blair
Basically: it's a mess and Sunak is sensible enough to clear it up unlike the Clown Liar.
As I previously mentioned on here, my mum sadly passed away 10 days ago. I contacted British Gas to close her account and gave them my address for any outstanding billing. Her bank account is also frozen of course.
BG have now written to her to let her know that her DD has been cancelled and she'll need to contact them to make alternative payment arrangements.
Sigh...
I'm thinking of writing back and asking them if they have a Ouija board.
I get it, it's not feasible for everyone a little upset, or even a lot upset, to be public and quit all the time, but it gets a bit much.
Replacing Mulroney with Kim Campbell brought a brief bounce but made zero long term difference
It's another to realise your deck is completely empty when you have to play a card.
That might be too late, but I think that's the game he's playing
The cost of living has become the new pandemic as regards go to small talk in my circles.
Worst two on my list were Nationwide long drawn out process far worse still were the Nottingham Building Society their entire process designed to stress out grieving relatives from what i could see.
Mind you I still have an inquest to endure at some point. Fuck knows when, she has now been dead 4 months and still no date set
They may not do too badly. These are the set a Tory Party behind in the polls would choose after all.
He's either fit for office or he isn't. 3 months won't change that.
Excluding ICM (which has consistently lower Labour polling) there is exactly 1 (I think?) non-double digit poll lead from 19th Oct 1992, 4 weeks after Black Wednesday.