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Will Donald Trump become President before 2024? – politicalbetting.com
Will Donald Trump become President before 2024? – politicalbetting.com
Apologies for inflicting GB News on you but I was intrigued by this interview with Dr Jan Halper-Hayes, overseas strategic adviser to Donald Trump, where she talked about the possibility of Trump being President before the 2024 election.
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Please do this for science.
https://www.joe.co.uk/news/rafael-nadal-slams-novak-djokovic-for-refusing-to-vaccinate-ahead-of-australian-open-309832
FYI - Apparently it is gauche to be first on your own threads.
Stunning match.
Even if the GOP win a landslide in November's midterms and the House impeached Biden, no way will they have the 2/3 majority in the Senate needed to convict Biden (and a handful of non Trumpite GOP Senators like Romney would vote not guilty anyway).
On a practical basis too even if the GOP do probably win the House back, how can Trump be Speaker and not manage votes and debates? He would effectively have to be in DC in Congress all the time, which would no doubt bore him rigid when he could be in Mar a Lago in sunny Florida by the beach
Heh!
I've no idea how many people are in the Secret Service, but I'd guess there would be quite a few to provide 24 hour security. Given the polling on the number of people who believe the QAnon rubbish, there's got to be a decent chance of there being some believers in the Secret Service.
This is the challenge you face when such a large proportion of the country go completely off the deep end in terms of extremism. You're no longer defending against an external threat posed by individuals or small groups. The threat is potentially everywhere.
I hadn't even considered that as an option. I thought we were safe until January 2025.
I’ve also seen it linked to, by not-the-usual suspects. GBNews seems to be making an impact, after a terrible start
Good luck to them. The more independent voices the better. C4 News has been pumping out leftwing nonsense for decades
Pretty sure there is some precedent in Elizabethan England, when it was said that some Lords were prevented from voting against one of the Religious Settlement Acts. I don't think that Trump is necessarily well enough organised to make it happen - otherwise he'd have managed to stop the counting in November 2020, and would still be President - but arresting a dozen or so Democratic Senators might be the way to get it done.
The other thing about it is that, just as with the certification in January 2021, even if an Impeachment doesn't succeed in making Trump President, it achieves many other things. It forces Republican members of Congress to pick a side. It's a loyalty test, and another step to Trump maintaining his control of the Republicans. It disrupts the Democrats. And it pushes the boundary of what is seen to be acceptable so that greater liberties can be taken at a later date.
If millions of heavily armed nutters really had gone off the deep end then there'd be terrorism attacks every week.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/27/no-america-is-not-on-the-cusp-of-a-civil-war
That they're babbling about such a thing shows their lack of knowledge about basic realities.
And it gives me a chance to post this - https://medium.com/@cyclefree2/perception-and-reality-7cbe78a2b679.
So what's not to love?
All the opinion polling suggests that voters are furious with the prime minister and a substantial majority, which includes about half of those who voted Conservative in 2019, think he should be removed from office. What they are sick and tired of is him and being taken for fools by his apologists.
But there is a sane position which is anti-vax. Ie the more we vax the more we force the virus to evolve to evade immunity, creating evermore sinister variants
I don’t agree with it, but I can see the logic
Then there is the insane anti-vax stuff, Bill Gates and microchips and the rest, but that is different
And we could all rejoice as our team chalks up victory after victory in the Andorra Test Series.
Mind you, my mum is watching it now they’ve recruited Anne Diamond and Barrett Homes.
Jan Halper-Hayes is nonetheless very Trumpian and close to Trump, so I don't imagine she dreamed it up herself.
Maybe someone else will bite.
Or I could do some work. Next door's cat is staring at me evilly. He/she is probably an alien, maybe even a GPT4 alien who likes fish.
There - that'll have to do.
Individual perception and feelings are not everything. Feelings do not override facts. Nor the need to comply with the law. An individual’s demands do not, of themselves, create a legally enforceable right.
I think you are swimming agains the tide on that one. I've ceased being astonished to seeing responses that argue things should not be permitted because they think perception and feeling should override facts, that their demands should be enforcable.
Usually goes something like this: 'I believe in freedom of expression...but X should not be allowed to say Y as it upsets Z'. Z is typically some group, presumed to have uniform opinion, of which the complainant often does not even belong.
All I know is that I’ve seen apparently sane virologists and evolutionary biologists arguing this point: vaccines can be theoretically counter-productive
You tried. Fair play
Believe it or not I AM interested in your garden!
You said it was REALLY big. How big? And you say you could happily spend all day gardening. Why do you think that is? How does it affect you? Is there an endorphin high at the end, is it the pleasure of seeing flowers, or growing your own veg?
Genuine questions. One day I will retire, at least a bit, and I wonder if I might like a garden….
If anything, the views that you have accurately described, when challenged and tested against the law and others' rights, have been shown to be more of a paper tiger than often assumed. It is one reason why legal challenge - indeed challenge of all kinds - is needed. And it is one reason why I am very suspicious of any group which says "no debate". If you are so sure of your position why would you not want to debate and persuade?
"No debate" comes across as the cry of a bully scared that they can't defend their position.
Here in Sri Lanka English cricket is much admired, they talk excitedly of England coming to play at Galle, because we have great teams when it comes to the shorter formats
Followed by another mad assumption about impeachment.
Then we add another mad assumption about stopping Dem Senators from voting.
If Trump (and the GOP generally) really was this all powerful (and competent) then he wouldn't have lost the 2020 election.
It knows its target market, Leavers, anti lockdown voters, some anti vaxxers, small government types, conservatives and is sticking to it. It may not be everyone's cup of tea but left liberals and Remainers already have C4 news as you say and the Guardian etc. Indeed already GB news gets more weekly viewers than Sky news on some estimates
I am not joking. I wish I was
acquit.
On a similar issue see the reaction, or lack thereof, to very basis issues raised from things the Henriques report into Midland, which you are no doubt much more familar with than I. Even when explained to people involved they don't see any issues.
And also that hardly anyone - on any side - has actually been directly killed as a result of the violence, and even fewer of those deaths were in any way deliberate.
Edit - welcome to the reality of a post-liberal society. Emotion over reason.
He’s right (not least because Sky News has got Woke recently which reduces its appeal, when the BBC pump out the same shit but with more money and certainly more prestige)
There will surely be 3 news services in the UK - at most - in the future. One left, the BBC in the middle, one right
This will be good for the BBC and might help preserve it for the future. It will have to carefully carve a middle role, but it can do that if it gets in a few more right wingers to balance the inevitable liberal left Londoners
But I agree that making Trump Speaker seems an unfeasible long-shot.
There is utility to be gained - the satisfaction of a day's toil, calories burned and skin a little more tanned - but mostly it's a consequence of my work-ethic, which is relentless (and which I saw in my grandmother). I view it as a curse rather than something to be commended for.
Trump would have to run for congress for a starter and I suspect McCarthy is not going to willingly step aside,
So from what you are saying you don’t really enjoy it that much, and you’d rather you didn’t have the work ethic that drives you to do it?
A quick look suggests that very much the opposite is true.
For example:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states
But I see people just doing nothing and seemingly quite happy doing nothing. I don't know what it's like to have nothing to do. My grandmother did nothing but work - by which I mean jobs in the house and the garden. She never sat and enjoyed the garden (which Monty Don frequently urges his viewers to do). I really should try to be more lazy.
Edit: I should add that I love plants, and nature more generally. If I was lucky enough to be in Sri Lanka now I'd be snorkelling, out looking for whales or walking through the rain-forests inland photographing stuff.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/06/14/homepage2/james-hodgkinson-profile/index.html
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-pressure-campaign-on-spotify
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/01/30/prince-harry-meghan-wade-spotify-anti-vax-row/
Kent Police, Parliamentary Security team and the Speaker's Office have been helpful but it is the Labour Party that have offered me no support at all since I unexpectedly became an MP 5 years ago. I am today considering my future in the Party very carefully...
https://twitter.com/rosieduffield1/status/1487777220135464960?s=21
Rosie Duffield MP
@RosieDuffield1
Kent Police, Parliamentary Security team and the Speaker's Office have been helpful but it is the Labour Party that have offered me no support at all since I unexpectedly became an MP 5 years ago. I am today considering my future in the Party very carefully...
https://twitter.com/RosieDuffield1/status/1487777220135464960
I’ve changed my mind about the next article about Trump. It’s going to be “Why Trump is trying to persuade Putin to invade the Ukraine to boost his chances in 2024”
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
5m
Just read [Sunak-Johnson NI tax article] again, and it doesn’t say *when* we must go ahead with the tax rise, but still awkward to get out of
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1487806607161544706
Please provide alternative analyses, as opposed to anecdata.
But what I eventually realised was that I was drawn to it because it helped soothe & calm me whenever I was troubled or worried. It rooted me in a way. And then it made me feel good. It answered various needs in me I was only dimly aware I had.
How? It is sensuous - you use your eyes, you have to take the time to really observe & see & when you do you see such beauty & often in unexpected combinations: rain on a spider's web, bees burrowing into allium flowers, the light shining through canna leaves. My mind is a very visual one. I think in pictures. I try to paint pictures with words. I cannot draw. But gardening gives me the ability to create something beautiful & visual.
Then there is scent. A garden without scent is absurd.
Sound - water obviously but the sound of grasses moving in wind. In the Lakes we are on a hill. It can be very windy so I'm experimenting with grasses for just that reason.
Taste - an obvious one this. But I eat lemons, figs, apples, pears & blackberries I have grown myself. The sense of achievement is superb.
Touch - overlooked but real. The feel of different sorts of leaves or petals or running your fingers through lavender etc. Or having your hands in earth. Honestly it is lovely.
Yes - gardening is sensuous. And creative.
Plus the physical exercise & being outside in all weathers. It is tiring but so fulfilling & yes gives me a high. The sense of stretching my body, of being tired & dirty is good - together with a sense of achievement - of being able to look & say "I've done that".
It's unexpected. Whatever you plan it will never quite work out as you wanted. That is part of the joy. You have a partner - Mother Nature - who will do her own thing.
It is quiet. It puts my mind into a sort of suspended animation where whatever I'm thinking about goes into the back - like someone stuffing clothes into a cupboard without bothering to hang them up. But somehow when I switch my mind back on, it is all a bit clearer & more ordered than before.
The Lakes garden is big - about 1/3 of an acre I think. On a hill. On limestone. Windy. But very sunny with fabulous views & a mile from the sea. Front garden - largely done. Back garden: needs sorting. Then some additional land next to it which is a huge mess. Just wild. I am just beginning to think about this.
I need to draw it out on paper, work out what I want to do, how it relates to the house, the views of it & from it etc. I would like to have a formal French-style potager with veg, a greenhouse, a garden building to sit in with my books, maybe a hot tub & an area of large sweeping planted curvaceous beds. It needs mystery too.
So that's why I can spend all day. I am not a tidy lawn & small border sort of a girl.
Here are my roses from a few years back in London to give you an idea of the sensuous aspect.
I do feel a bit guilty that I’m not making more of Sri Lanka, But the fact is I justified the trip by saying “I will work” - and I am, and the work is good, and I will return home tanned and fit and tranquil and with a lot of stuff DONE
But within 2 hours of me there are famous national parks with LEOPARDS and all that. Hmmmm!!!
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2021-saw-plenty-of-violence-but-no-mass-terrorist-attacks-in-the-u-s/
Anyway, a quick scan down the below list was inconclusive:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States#2020–2022
But, that list groups large numbers of related incidents under single headers. The George Floyd protests are listed as having caused $1-2bn of insured property damage in total, whereas the equivalent figure for 6 January was $30m. There are - as far as I can tell - no other incidents listed which can easily be classified as "right wing".
Maybe I should get a garden. I can see the enormous pleasure of growing your own fruit and veg and I totally get the reward of proper physical work - it is good for you, AND you earn your appetite
I have just one more question. You’ve spoken of your Neapolitan background. Don’t you miss the Campanian sun? Are you totally adjusted to British weather?
When I think about the next Act in my life I do yearn for real warmth and sun. Mediterranean, but tempered. Maybe Portugal. Or go the whole hog and go tropical, like Sri Lanka. The sweet soft evenings are so seductive….
https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1487768986863480834
Yes, it’s total bollocks. There is true evil on both sides, and also righteous naivety. And hatred between
It is a toxic mix and those who predict civil war are not entirely fantasists
Prompted by the discussion on podcasts yesterday, I rediscovered econtalk- there’s a great episode on the drug situation in the US/Mexico.
I don’t know what the answer is, but I’m pretty sure the solution is a coherent, dedicated policy, at either end of the war on drugs vs full legalisation spectrum.
Drugs are a catastrophe for the individual, families and our society. My view has seriously hardened in recent years.
It is sad that Andrew Neill's original idea didn't work the way he hoped it would. However, GB News need to be commercially successful and the idea of creating a more objective and neutral BBC was never going to fly, in this respect.
The city was reasonably busy, but not crowded.
Mask wearing was very sparse on the train.
Mask wearing around 50% in John Lewis.
Of the 4 or 5 things I was aiming to buy, I managed to come home with one. Next stop Amazon!
I did get to experience some interaction with real people, so that was good.
However, the highlight of the trip came when walking home from the station. A pair of goosanders doing their thing in the canal.
Also, I've walked six and a half miles so far today, so that might help me burn off the slice of Black Forest Gateau I had with my coffee.