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Will Donald Trump become President before 2024? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    Considering ±six times as many went one way than the other (and there are more Brits in Australia than the entire EU), it does rather appear Europeans valued crossing into Blightly a lot more highly than Brits valued the reverse....
    And those I met picking fruit, collecting bins and waiting tables seemed to be doing a damn fine job too. And in the industry I work in there were many, and they were working on the picking lines at materials recycling facilities sorting kerbside refuse, a task English and Welsh people were reluctant to do, and who can blame them, it is disgusting. But someone had to do it...

    And, I was quite content to make a space for one more bin man!
    Plenty of English and Welsh people would be willing to do it if they were given a wage and conditions that made up for the shitty work. The fact they weren't and Romanians and Bulgarians were is because the Romanians and Bulgarians come from poorer countries where their wages go further in real terms.

    Because that's what low skill migration ultimately comes down to - business owners making more profit by taking advantage of lower pay levels in poor countries, while undermining British workers.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    You don't get your full UK state pension and more importantly for someone in their twilight years no free at the point of delivery reciprocal European Health Insurance.

    It's a while since I looked, but as I recall there are a whole raft of issues that make the plan unattractive.

    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    It's the health insurance that's the real issue and makes retirement to an EU country no longer viable unless you can afford private health insurance after retirement.

    There's a lot of other problems too. I recently looked at doing a motorcycle trip through France, Spain and Portugal next year but the loss of reciprocal insurance rights makes it very risky for somebody (ie me) who can only get third party insurance cover. If I had an accident in Portugal that wasn't my fault my British insurance company won't pursue the Portuguese insurer and it'll be up to me to pursue through the Portuguese courts.
    Still, PB's resident pirate thinks everything is fine and dandy, so why the **** should I worry.

    I can't wait for the RedWallers hysteria when they find themselves queuing for hours with the Russians to get into Spain for their holiday whilst the Germans have breezed in and already have their towel on the sunbed. Brexit is such bollox for anyone who is minded to broaden their horizons further than the People's Republic of West Yorkshire.
    Given that most people in the country return to the UK more often than they arrive in an EU country, I think the time reduction in UK passport queues more than makes up for any extra time visiting Spain.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    Considering ±six times as many went one way than the other (and there are more Brits in Australia than the entire EU), it does rather appear Europeans valued crossing into Blightly a lot more highly than Brits valued the reverse....
    And those I met picking fruit, collecting bins and waiting tables seemed to be doing a damn fine job too. And in the industry I work in there were many, and they were working on the picking lines at materials recycling facilities sorting kerbside refuse, a task English and Welsh people were reluctant to do, and who can blame them, it is disgusting. But someone had to do it...

    And, I was quite content to make a space for one more bin man!
    Plenty of English and Welsh people would be willing to do it if they were given a wage and conditions that made up for the shitty work. The fact they weren't and Romanians and Bulgarians were is because the Romanians and Bulgarians come from poorer countries where their wages go further in real terms.

    Because that's what low skill migration ultimately comes down to - business owners making more profit by taking advantage of lower pay levels in poor countries, while undermining British workers.
    The vast majority of EU-born residents in the UK have been here for long period of time:
    47% 10+ years
    27% 5-9 yers
    26% under 5 years.

    I'm guessing the vast majority of the "under 5 years" category are also over 1 year too.

    Why am I saying this? Oh just because those people are definitionally living here. So their wages are paying for their lives HERE. Most foreign-born people are working here, spending here, paying retain and property taxes here, and so on.

    Whatever these people are foregoing, the cost of living in Britain isn't one of them.
    Not really because they are thinking about the purchasing power of their savings when they return back to their home country (potentially with the added benefit of a UK funded pension).
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    You don't get your full UK state pension and more importantly for someone in their twilight years no free at the point of delivery reciprocal European Health Insurance.

    It's a while since I looked, but as I recall there are a whole raft of issues that make the plan unattractive.

    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    It's the health insurance that's the real issue and makes retirement to an EU country no longer viable unless you can afford private health insurance after retirement.

    There's a lot of other problems too. I recently looked at doing a motorcycle trip through France, Spain and Portugal next year but the loss of reciprocal insurance rights makes it very risky for somebody (ie me) who can only get third party insurance cover. If I had an accident in Portugal that wasn't my fault my British insurance company won't pursue the Portuguese insurer and it'll be up to me to pursue through the Portuguese courts.
    Still, PB's resident pirate thinks everything is fine and dandy, so why the **** should I worry.

    I can't wait for the RedWallers hysteria when they find themselves queuing for hours with the Russians to get into Spain for their holiday whilst the Germans have breezed in and already have their towel on the sunbed. Brexit is such bollox for anyone who is minded to broaden their horizons further than the People's Republic of West Yorkshire.
    Given that most people in the country return to the UK more often than they arrive in an EU country, I think the time reduction in UK passport queues more than makes up for any extra time visiting Spain.
    Why would passport queues for British passport holders returning to Britain be reduced?
    Because the "EU + EEA passport" queue can now be a "UK only passport" queue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    Andy_JS said:

    "Dominic Cummings has branded Boris Johnson a “complete f***wit” and said it is his “duty” to get rid of him as prime minister.
    The former Downing Street aide said the campaign to remove Mr Johnson from office was an “unpleasant but necessary job” which was akin to “fixing the drains”.
    In an explosive interview with New York Magazine, Mr Cummings claimed the prime minister was too preoccupied with media coverage and believed he was “the f***ing king”. He said: “You know, as he said to me, ‘I’m the f***ing king around here and I’m going to do what I want.’"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-duty-remove-him-power-b979605.html

    As entertaining as Cummings manoeuvres are, the only person that comes out of this affair worse than the Prime Minister is Carrie.. I mean is... Dominic Cummings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139

    Trump says it’s unfortunate that Pence didn’t overturn the election result.

    image

    If the VP is allowed to overturn the election result based upon some vague allegations, does that mean it would be OK for Vice President Harris to hand it to Sleepy Joe after a Trump win?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    Yokes said:

    According to the Trump cultists, he was due to return to power on three separate occasions in the last year. Hasn't come near it once.

    The only way he gets back in is by a presidential election. I have some serious doubts he even gets to that but even if he does, the hatred for the man still holds strong for large sections of the US public & that means the Democrats should get in again versus Trump unless they balls it up by a) letting Biden run again or b) putting up someone who isn't a strong centre ground politician.

    I tend to agree with this: I think the Republicans beat pretty much any Democrat in 2024... unless it's Trump, in which case, it's entirely possible it's a big Democrat victory.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,266
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Dominic Cummings has branded Boris Johnson a “complete f***wit” and said it is his “duty” to get rid of him as prime minister.
    The former Downing Street aide said the campaign to remove Mr Johnson from office was an “unpleasant but necessary job” which was akin to “fixing the drains”.
    In an explosive interview with New York Magazine, Mr Cummings claimed the prime minister was too preoccupied with media coverage and believed he was “the f***ing king”. He said: “You know, as he said to me, ‘I’m the f***ing king around here and I’m going to do what I want.’"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-duty-remove-him-power-b979605.html

    As entertaining as Cummings manoeuvres are, the only person that comes out of this affair worse than the Prime Minister is Carrie.. I mean is... Dominic Cummings.
    Couldn't agree more. He used to be an interesting figure, now he's a joke.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    You don't get your full UK state pension and more importantly for someone in their twilight years no free at the point of delivery reciprocal European Health Insurance.

    It's a while since I looked, but as I recall there are a whole raft of issues that make the plan unattractive.

    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    You do get the full UK state pension in all EU countries including the annual uprating. Not sure where you have heard otherwise.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    felix said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    You don't get your full UK state pension and more importantly for someone in their twilight years no free at the point of delivery reciprocal European Health Insurance.

    It's a while since I looked, but as I recall there are a whole raft of issues that make the plan unattractive.

    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    You do get the full UK state pension in all EU countries including the annual uprating. Not sure where you have heard otherwise.
    Pension credit stops.

    The biggest issue is the health insurance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
    Johnson's team are doing the "it took years to recover from toppling Thatcher" thing.
    Forgetting that had the vote gone the other way everyone who had backed Thatcher in the run up to 1992 would have to answer for supporting her catastrophic unpopularity.

    https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1487876340044947458

    Given Labour have kept all of their leaders up until the next general election, even Foot, Brown, Ed Miliband and Corbyn, we Tories do not need lectures on when we should remove our leaders
    You've forgotten George Lansbury.
    Even Lansbury continued as leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party until Attlee succeeded him in 1935
    He was forced out, at the party conference in advance of the 1935 election. Attlee was his deputy and replaced him as leader to see the party through the campaign.

    So they haven't kept 'all of their leaders up until the next general election.' Lansbury like IDS never fought one as leader.
    Lansbury resigned, the Labour Party did not vote him out in a leadership election or VONC
    You clearly have no idea of what happened, and since you never admit you're wrong (I haven't forgotten the Ullapool-Inverness ferry) there's not much point arguing with you.

    Suffice it to say that he resigned as party leader in the same way Margaret Thatcher 'resigned' -the vote may not on the rules at the time have technically been a dismissal but the outcome left him no choice at all.
    So he was not removed in a VONC, as say IDS was, or a leadership election, as say Heath was then. He did not even face a leadership election like Thatcher.

    He resigned because Labour voted against his pacifist policy pre WW2
    But that is not what you said. You said, and I quote, 'Labour have kept all of their leaders up until the next general election, even Foot, Brown, Ed Miliband and Corbyn, we Tories do not need lectures on when we should remove our leaders.' You said nothing about mechanisms of removal. You are once again goalpost moving.

    On this occasion the mechanism of removal was when a policy he had staked his leadership on was rejected following a highly personal attack on it from Ernest Bevin. That is, to anyone with a brain, which I fear it was obvious when I knew you slightly in Aber you didn't have, 'a removal.'

    It's disturbing to think that basic logic did not form part of your education at either your private school or Warwick.

    But it's not as disturbing as your lack of moral courage in admitting a mistake.
    By point remains absolutely correct.

    Labour may occasionally have voted against policies of the leadership at conference. Labour have never removed a single one of their leaders before a general election, either through a leadership election or a VONC, as the Tories have.

    So I was right.

    You can be as rude, patronising and pompous as you usually are. I do not give a toss. I just thank goodness I never had the misfortune to deal with you for any great length of time at Aber
    You can be as abusive as you like, Simon. Indeed, It’s mildly amusing how unselfaware you are. As it was to all of us at Aber.

    Your original statement is still wrong. What you claim it meant is not what you said to start. Labour have got rid of a leader before an election. It’s just it was 87 years ago.

    You need to learn to qualify your statements, or check them, or admit if you’ve got things wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Dominic Cummings has branded Boris Johnson a “complete f***wit” and said it is his “duty” to get rid of him as prime minister.
    The former Downing Street aide said the campaign to remove Mr Johnson from office was an “unpleasant but necessary job” which was akin to “fixing the drains”.
    In an explosive interview with New York Magazine, Mr Cummings claimed the prime minister was too preoccupied with media coverage and believed he was “the f***ing king”. He said: “You know, as he said to me, ‘I’m the f***ing king around here and I’m going to do what I want.’"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-duty-remove-him-power-b979605.html

    As entertaining as Cummings manoeuvres are, the only person that comes out of this affair worse than the Prime Minister is Carrie.. I mean is... Dominic Cummings.
    Couldn't agree more. He used to be an interesting figure, now he's a joke.
    No, he was always a joke. It’s just people are no longer fooled by his schtick. He’s seen for the pseud and lightweight he is.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ironic to call this the Brexit Freedoms Bill given it removed peoples rights to live and work in 27 other countries .

    More of a benefit of membership than a right.
    You are splitting hairs here.

    My plan was to retire to Southern France taking my paid for UK state pension with me. I won't be doing that now.

    Still, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister so it gave him some Brexit Freedoms, particularly during periods of Covid lockdown. So all's good.
    Why not? You can still do it, you have to apply for a visa.
    You don't get your full UK state pension and more importantly for someone in their twilight years no free at the point of delivery reciprocal European Health Insurance.

    It's a while since I looked, but as I recall there are a whole raft of issues that make the plan unattractive.

    Brexit may be fantastic if one doesn't want European foreigners crossing into Blighty, but it's not so good if one planned a move in the opposite direction.
    You do get the full UK state pension in all EU countries including the annual uprating. Not sure where you have heard otherwise.
    Pension credit stops.

    The biggest issue is the health insurance.
    Pension credit is not the basic state pension. Not sure for new arrivals since transition ended but all existing pensioners here atm do get free health cover which is exactly the same as before and is guaranteed. When I moved in 2008 I was 55 and had to to get private cover as I was not working and contributing. It's the same today and quite right in my view. In Spain the general rule is you get benefits if you contribute via the national insurance system - by working. To be fair there have always been some 'expats' here who have gamed the system and shafted both the UK and Spanish governments by lying about residency, income, etc. They have little sympathy for those of us operating within the law and for whom Brexit has made little difference. However, I agree, Brexit is not a good thing for new retirees who now have more hurdles to jump. I'm not sure though they were the focus for the decision made in 2016.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,504
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Dominic Cummings has branded Boris Johnson a “complete f***wit” and said it is his “duty” to get rid of him as prime minister.
    The former Downing Street aide said the campaign to remove Mr Johnson from office was an “unpleasant but necessary job” which was akin to “fixing the drains”.
    In an explosive interview with New York Magazine, Mr Cummings claimed the prime minister was too preoccupied with media coverage and believed he was “the f***ing king”. He said: “You know, as he said to me, ‘I’m the f***ing king around here and I’m going to do what I want.’"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-duty-remove-him-power-b979605.html

    As entertaining as Cummings manoeuvres are, the only person that comes out of this affair worse than the Prime Minister is Carrie.. I mean is... Dominic Cummings.
    Couldn't agree more. He used to be an interesting figure, now he's a joke.
    No, he was always a joke. It’s just people are no longer fooled by his schtick. He’s seen for the pseud and lightweight he is.
    Cummings is no better, tbf
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Dominic Cummings has branded Boris Johnson a “complete f***wit” and said it is his “duty” to get rid of him as prime minister.
    The former Downing Street aide said the campaign to remove Mr Johnson from office was an “unpleasant but necessary job” which was akin to “fixing the drains”.
    In an explosive interview with New York Magazine, Mr Cummings claimed the prime minister was too preoccupied with media coverage and believed he was “the f***ing king”. He said: “You know, as he said to me, ‘I’m the f***ing king around here and I’m going to do what I want.’"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-duty-remove-him-power-b979605.html

    As entertaining as Cummings manoeuvres are, the only person that comes out of this affair worse than the Prime Minister is Carrie.. I mean is... Dominic Cummings.
    Couldn't agree more. He used to be an interesting figure, now he's a joke.
    No, he was always a joke. It’s just people are no longer fooled by his schtick. He’s seen for the pseud and lightweight he is.
    Cummings is no better, tbf
    LOL. I suspect you were making a joke, but I did of course mean the Little Dom.
  • On topic, Halper-Hayes is one of the weakest 'pundits' out there
This discussion has been closed.