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Will Donald Trump become President before 2024? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Omnium said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What does "Yup, I was told it gets worse." mean? Is the polling company a polling company or a fortuneteller?
    Use your imagination but help someone like you, I don't know any fortune tellers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    Likely an older fieldwork poll, I will take the only 5% Labour lead from Opinium yesterday and Survation last week given they were the most accurate pollsters at the last general election
    Odd you missed out Ipsos MORI who also were spot on, who had a 9% Labour lead last week.
    So even Mori did not have a Labour lead of 10% or more then
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    It must be hard to ever score a goal in Epping, the goalposts shift so much and so often.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    edited January 2022

    Omnium said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What does "Yup, I was told it gets worse." mean? Is the polling company a polling company or a fortuneteller?
    Use your imagination but help someone like you, I don't know any fortune tellers.
    So you're saying that the polling companies tell you ahead of time about their findings? (Beyond the usual news thing)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    The most notable thing about the ST piece was its joint authorship. Rishi the smiler with the knife under the cloak Sunak knows that the policy gives him a serious flesh wound, but leaves Pig Dog dead in the water. He forced its publication, on threat of resigning.

    An insight I think I owe to @AlastairMeeks on twitter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    The real tragedy is the popularity of the Margherita pizza. BORING MUST DO BETTER
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    Likely an older fieldwork poll, I will take the only 5% Labour lead from Opinium yesterday and Survation last week given they were the most accurate pollsters at the last general election
    Hahahahaha. Genuinely hilarious and also very sad.

    HYUFD breaks the Golden Rule.

    "They are not near Baghdad, don't believe them."
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    Likely an older fieldwork poll, I will take the only 5% Labour lead from Opinium yesterday and Survation last week given they were the most accurate pollsters at the last general election
    Odd you missed out Ipsos MORI who also were spot on, who had a 9% Labour lead last week.
    So even Mori did not have a Labour lead of 10% or more then
    Actually they gave Labour a 12% lead when you factor in everyone giving a voting intention rather than those giving a 9/10 and above voting intention.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,915
    edited January 2022

    Vegetarian:

    image

    Is "Mozzarella" "Margherita" minus tomato?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Foxy said:

    Vegetarian:

    image

    How can Marinara be vegetarian?

    And who puts cauliflower on pizza?
    That list is sick.
  • HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    Yes - the optics are awful. And this whole rubbish about “clearing the backlog” - where on earth do we magic up the extra manpower to clear it?!
    Some of the waiting lists will be sold to the private sector, like cattle at auction. This can be good, can be very bad indeed depending on who gets the contract. The focus will be on new patients and daycare. Don't ask any awkward questions about follow ups or medical and psychiatric patients etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Vegetarian:

    image

    How can Marinara be vegetarian?

    And who puts cauliflower on pizza?
    That list is sick.
    The eyes didn't stay closed for long then :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Am I right in thinking that the Windies have won 5 tosses from 5?? 4-1 at the worst.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
  • stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    I think the polls close in Portugal at 7pm UK time and we should expect the first exit polls fairly soon after.

    Turnout is looking fair - last time it failed to break 50% - I think it will be high 50s this time.

    Portugal

    Thanks Stodge - I believe exit polls will be at 8pm when the Azores have finished voting.

    Links:

    https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1

    https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/direto

    https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

    Thanks,

    DC
    No thought of resurrecting the Elections Game DC?
    Ah thanks Richard - but no immediate plans I'm afraid, it just became too much work, and although I still follow all the 40 or so countries and try and watch all the elections, I'm probably more into music these days tbh :smile:
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
  • It must be hard to ever score a goal in Epping, the goalposts shift so much and so often.

    Lots of own goals though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    That is wrong.

    Those earning over £100,000 will pay over £1,000 extra NI. Those earning £20,000 just £89 extra
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    Not sure why you need to apologise for GB News. Some of their presenters are a bit irritating but I don't get the hate.

    Quite.

    I’ve also seen it linked to, by not-the-usual suspects. GBNews seems to be making an impact, after a terrible start

    Good luck to them. The more independent voices the better. C4 News has been pumping out leftwing nonsense for decades
    Anyway, if you want something different to talk about we could talk about women, Article 10 of the ECHR and what, if any, the police's role in this should be. It touches on Scotland, Wales, the police, law and Europe - as well as, of course, women. So pretty much a full bingo card.

    And it gives me a chance to post this - https://medium.com/@cyclefree2/perception-and-reality-7cbe78a2b679.

    So what's not to love?
    Does it involve aliens, GPT4 and arguments about the best Goan fish curry recipes? I/f not, sorry. Not interested
    No. Of course not. Such dreary geeky topics. I don't even know what the second one means.

    Maybe someone else will bite.

    Or I could do some work. Next door's cat is staring at me evilly. He/she is probably an alien, maybe even a GPT4 alien who likes fish.

    There - that'll have to do.

    You tried. Fair play

    Believe it or not I AM interested in your garden!

    You said it was REALLY big. How big? And you say you could happily spend all day gardening. Why do you think that is? How does it affect you? Is there an endorphin high at the end, is it the pleasure of seeing flowers, or growing your own veg?

    Genuine questions. One day I will retire, at least a bit, and I wonder if I might like a garden….
    I like seeing things grow, but what I found difficult about managing a garden was that it mostly involved stopping the things you didn't want to grow from growing. An odd situation where, in order to be creative, primarily one has to be destructive. Mostly the plants do the growing by themselves, after all, and so your role is to ensure that the plants you want to grow are not outcompeted by the ones you don't want.

    It wasn't really what I had in mind when I thought it would be nice to grow some things.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    Labour's current money troubles are pretty much down to the lawsuits being made by former staff because of anti semitism. Allowing racists to join your party actually costs you money in the long run.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
    My previous comment is withdrawn totally, you can apparently get crap pizza's
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.


    From January 2021:

    https://www.ovenpride.com/blog/the-uks-favourite-pizza-toppings-revealed/

    image



    Cauliflower? Wtf?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Vegetarian:

    image

    How can Marinara be vegetarian?

    And who puts cauliflower on pizza?
    That list is sick.
    The eyes didn't stay closed for long then :)
    Cleaning with bleach now
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?

    There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.

    It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.

    If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.

    Half the latest 4 polls have Labour under 40% and the Tories on 34%, the recovery is there.

    As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%

    See how HYUFD moves the goalposts to suit his myopia? Once it was all about the magic 40% mark. Then it was all about 10% leads. Now it's all about the kosher pollsters.

    Why don't you go the whole way and conduct your own polling?

    Alternatively, be less subjective. Look, listen and learn.
    I agree. HYUFD used to be the most reliable poll reader on here with a poll for every eventuality. Despite his preferences he was scrupulous. Now he seems to have morphed into a simple propagandist as if there weren't enough on here already
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Eabhal said:

    Channel 4, Andrew Neil does partygate.

    I’ll have to get this on catch up.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
    My previous comment is withdrawn totally, you can apparently get crap pizza's
    Here’s one. I like this YouTube channel. A guy reviews food from supermarkets. Not as entertaining as rate my takeaway but not bad.

    https://youtu.be/kbeNG3bazG0
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Not sure why you need to apologise for GB News. Some of their presenters are a bit irritating but I don't get the hate.

    It is a channel that spreads antivax bollocks.

    But there is a sane position which is anti-vax. Ie the more we vax the more we force the virus to evolve to evade immunity, creating evermore sinister variants

    I don’t agree with it, but I can see the logic

    Then there is the insane anti-vax stuff, Bill Gates and microchips and the rest, but that is different
    Is there a single virus where mass vaccination has led to that outcome to the extent that the overall clinical outcomes were worse then they would have been without mass vaccination?
    No idea

    All I know is that I’ve seen apparently sane virologists and evolutionary biologists arguing this point: vaccines can be theoretically counter-productive
    That’s strange; the only discussion on this subject I’ve seen from immunologists and virologists has been the exact reverse: vaccines aren’t antibiotics, after all (they’re simply a method of triggering the natural immune response by alerting and training the immune system) and the maximum risk of new variants comes about with the widest spread of the virus (as there are that many more reproducing viruses with that much more opportunities for mutation).

    The fact that Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron have all come from regions of low/no vaccination (some predating vax) and no hints of any dangerous variants coming from regions of high vax would rather support them.

    Well, there are virologists who are worried about it and particularly about surface-targetting vaccines

    “We believe that targeting internal antigens such as the nucleocapsid presents an advantage over surface antigens as they have a much lower mutation rate,” said Le Vert. He added that an immune T cell response against these internal antigens could protect against both current and future strains of Covid-19."

    https://www.labiotech.eu/trends-news/emergex-covid-19-vaccine/
    Not saying he’s wrong, but I’m not sure I see the utility of that given anyone who has been infected already has a large immune response to the nucleocapsid protein (circulating antibodies to the protein are the test we use for prior infection).

    And with Omicron that will be most people.

    If he’s talking up his company’s product in development, then I would treat with an additional pinch of salt.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695
    edited January 2022
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?

    There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.

    It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.

    If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.

    Half the latest 4 polls have Labour under 40% and the Tories on 34%, the recovery is there.

    As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%

    See how HYUFD moves the goalposts to suit his myopia? Once it was all about the magic 40% mark. Then it was all about 10% leads. Now it's all about the kosher pollsters.

    Why don't you go the whole way and conduct your own polling?

    Alternatively, be less subjective. Look, listen and learn.
    I agree. HYUFD used to be the most reliable poll reader on here with a poll for every eventuality. Despite his preferences he was scrupulous. Now he seems to have morphed into a simple propagandist as if there weren't enough on here already
    he's just a fairweather poll tracker. I suspect he'd be a Labour supporter if he lived in a safe labour seat, so slavishly does he follow the herd.
  • malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
    I am looking forward to my Domino's on Tuesday night. Only have one now and then and that has to be when I'm away as its miles and miles from where I live to the nearest one
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
    I am looking forward to my Domino's on Tuesday night. Only have one now and then and that has to be when I'm away as its miles and miles from where I live to the nearest one
    I like a Domino's pizza, only get them now and again as wife not so keen. Enjoy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    IshmaelZ said:

    The importance of understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution cannot be overlooked. Recent studies confirm that natural selection is the dominating mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, which favors mutations that strengthen viral infectivity. Here, we demonstrate that vaccine-breakthrough or antibody-resistant mutations provide a new mechanism of viral evolution. Specifically, vaccine-resistant mutation Y449S in the spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain, which occurred in co-mutations Y449S and N501Y, has reduced infectivity compared to that of the original SARS-CoV-2 but can disrupt existing antibodies that neutralize the virus. By tracking the evolutionary trajectories of vaccine-resistant mutations in more than 2.2 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reveal that the occurrence and frequency of vaccine-resistant mutations correlate strongly with the vaccination rates in Europe and America. We anticipate that as a complementary transmission pathway, vaccine-breakthrough or antibody-resistant mutations, like those in Omicron, will become a dominating mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evolution when most of the world's population is either vaccinated or infected. Our study sheds light on SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission and enables the design of the next-generation mutation-proof vaccines and antibody drugs.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34873910/

    So there.

    Derek Lowe explains the ins and outs in detail in a very readable manner here:
    https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants

    Vaccines dampen genomic diversity of covid mutations here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1

    The default issue is that the more vaccination you have, the more immunity you get in your population. The more immunity you get in your population (from whichever route), the less transmission you have. The less transmission you have, the less opportunity the virus has of hitting on a useful mutation.

    Viral evolution is complicated as f*ck, and I’m not sure those who study it have any firm conclusions yet about Covid.

    Good article here (which was approved by the scientists it talks about):
    https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/predicting-the-next-booster?justPublished=true
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    That is wrong.

    Those earning over £100,000 will pay over £1,000 extra NI. Those earning £20,000 just £89 extra
    Earners of £100,000 a year could end up paying proportionately less in national insurance than those on middle incomes if a planned increase goes through in April, it has emerged.

    Figures produced by the Tax Calculator UK website show those earning £100,000 a year will pay just 7% of their overall salary in national insurance contributions (NICs) – the same proportion of their income as someone on £20,000 a year.

    ...

    While the Treasury has repeatedly claimed the increase is “progressive”, figures published on Friday by the online tax calculator show that workers earning between £30,000 and £50,000 will be the hardest hit by far.

    It calculates that someone earning £50,000 a year will pay £5,086 a year in NICs alone after April – a £505 increase – amounting to 10% of their gross salary.

    While someone earning £100,000 a year is set to pay the highest national insurance bill – £7,008 a year (an increase of £1,130), the proportion of their pre-tax income paid in NICs will be just 7%. Those on £30,000 a year will pay 9% of their gross salary in NICs.

    ...

    From April, NICs are set to be charged at 13.25% on most earnings up to £50,000 but at just 3.25% on income above that threshold.


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jan/28/middle-income-earners-hit-hardest-national-insurance-higher-percentage-uk-rishi-sunak

    The last part is my emphasis: a reminder that, in direct contrast to income tax, the rate of NI for employees is, of course, greatly reduced on incomes above a certain level.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints of the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    I want lower taxes and vote Tory. Guess what the Tories have just done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    Impossible to explain

    42% to 36% thinh SKS and Reeves would be best for country's finances despite the fact they have completely fooked Labours up to the extent the Party is on the verge of Bankruptcy.

    Oh well I am sure they might change their mind when Labour files
    Corbyn lost a no confidence vote of his own MPs 197-40. Don't you think pointing out Starmer's shortcomings under the circumstances is a little ridiculous?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Is the best you can do in response to my comments ?

    You absolutely confirm my last sentence
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    If we take the latest Opinium for example, that had a Labour lead of 5, the median Conservative voter is in the 55-64 age group, about two-fifths from the youngest of their voters in that age range. So it would be very close to 60.

    For Ipsos-MORI, who have a larger poll lead for Labour, of 9, then the median Conservative voter is about one-third from the oldest of their voters in that age range, so much more confidently over 60.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    That is wrong.

    Those earning over £100,000 will pay over £1,000 extra NI. Those earning £20,000 just £89 extra
    Earners of £100,000 a year could end up paying proportionately less in national insurance than those on middle incomes if a planned increase goes through in April, it has emerged.

    Figures produced by the Tax Calculator UK website show those earning £100,000 a year will pay just 7% of their overall salary in national insurance contributions (NICs) – the same proportion of their income as someone on £20,000 a year.

    ...

    While the Treasury has repeatedly claimed the increase is “progressive”, figures published on Friday by the online tax calculator show that workers earning between £30,000 and £50,000 will be the hardest hit by far.

    It calculates that someone earning £50,000 a year will pay £5,086 a year in NICs alone after April – a £505 increase – amounting to 10% of their gross salary.

    While someone earning £100,000 a year is set to pay the highest national insurance bill – £7,008 a year (an increase of £1,130), the proportion of their pre-tax income paid in NICs will be just 7%. Those on £30,000 a year will pay 9% of their gross salary in NICs.

    ...

    From April, NICs are set to be charged at 13.25% on most earnings up to £50,000 but at just 3.25% on income above that threshold.


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jan/28/middle-income-earners-hit-hardest-national-insurance-higher-percentage-uk-rishi-sunak

    The last part is my emphasis: a reminder that, in direct contrast to income tax, the rate of NI for employees is, of course, greatly reduced on incomes above a certain level.
    Those earning over £100, 000 will see a more than 10% rise in the NI they pay then. Those earning £30,000 will see a less than 10% rise
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Opinium have asked the most important question ever in their new poll.

    I wouldn't want to see pineapple on any pizza I'm presented with. My heart would sink in fact. I'd pick it off and discard if I judged I could without causing offence to my table companions.
    Any pizza is a good pizza, even if adorned wit hpineapple, I would just close my eyes.
    My previous comment is withdrawn totally, you can apparently get crap pizza's
    That would literally be a shit topping.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Aslan said:

    Donald Trump going for Speaker could save the Dems in the midterms.

    Sounds like he wouldn't go for anything. They would simply vote him in once they win the House. Absolutely fucking mental plan, but perfectly same if you are a GOPper
    It is mildly risky, mind.

    Trump will want to take the Dems on, and to compromise on nothing. That will inevitably lead to the shutdown of government.

    Historically, that has been a Brucy bonus for the President, and a disaster for whoever controls the House.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    No, they think All main parties are now high tax parties, so I might as well vote Lab or LD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    No, they think All main parties are now high tax parties, so I might as well vote Lab or LD.
    They don't, otherwise the Tories would not still be over 30% in every poll and RefUK would be on 0%, not 3 to 5%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    That is wrong.

    Those earning over £100,000 will pay over £1,000 extra NI. Those earning £20,000 just £89 extra
    Earners of £100,000 a year could end up paying proportionately less in national insurance than those on middle incomes if a planned increase goes through in April, it has emerged.

    Figures produced by the Tax Calculator UK website show those earning £100,000 a year will pay just 7% of their overall salary in national insurance contributions (NICs) – the same proportion of their income as someone on £20,000 a year.

    ...

    While the Treasury has repeatedly claimed the increase is “progressive”, figures published on Friday by the online tax calculator show that workers earning between £30,000 and £50,000 will be the hardest hit by far.

    It calculates that someone earning £50,000 a year will pay £5,086 a year in NICs alone after April – a £505 increase – amounting to 10% of their gross salary.

    While someone earning £100,000 a year is set to pay the highest national insurance bill – £7,008 a year (an increase of £1,130), the proportion of their pre-tax income paid in NICs will be just 7%. Those on £30,000 a year will pay 9% of their gross salary in NICs.

    ...

    From April, NICs are set to be charged at 13.25% on most earnings up to £50,000 but at just 3.25% on income above that threshold.


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jan/28/middle-income-earners-hit-hardest-national-insurance-higher-percentage-uk-rishi-sunak

    The last part is my emphasis: a reminder that, in direct contrast to income tax, the rate of NI for employees is, of course, greatly reduced on incomes above a certain level.
    It is morally wrong
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Roger said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    Impossible to explain

    42% to 36% thinh SKS and Reeves would be best for country's finances despite the fact they have completely fooked Labours up to the extent the Party is on the verge of Bankruptcy.

    Oh well I am sure they might change their mind when Labour files
    Corbyn lost a no confidence vote of his own MPs 197-40. Don't you think pointing out Starmer's shortcomings under the circumstances is a little ridiculous?
    172-40 to be exact.

    Couldn't have been the figure you quoted as Labour only had 231 MPs at the time!
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022
    I think people have become a bit over obsessed with the Sue Gray Report and the worst may have passed for Johnson on that front for the time being. I await to see what the polls show going forward, most likely a 5-10% lead as economic issues also come into play but we'll see.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Donald Trump going for Speaker could save the Dems in the midterms.

    Sounds like he wouldn't go for anything. They would simply vote him in once they win the House. Absolutely fucking mental plan, but perfectly same if you are a GOPper
    It is mildly risky, mind.

    Trump will want to take the Dems on, and to compromise on nothing. That will inevitably lead to the shutdown of government.

    Historically, that has been a Brucy bonus for the President, and a disaster for whoever controls the House.
    Also, doesn't it involve quite a lot of actual work, and procedural stuff? Things that Trump has historically proved he is extremely bad at?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Who thought Mahmood was a good idea for the decider? Jeez.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    DavidL said:

    Who thought Mahmood was a good idea for the decider? Jeez.

    You have to wonder what David Payne has to do to get a game.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    If I’m going to be taxed more by all parties, why would I want to go with the tories for shit public services
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Roger said:

    Andrew Neil giving Johnson a kicking on Ch4

    Andrew Neil, Channel 4, talk about surprising sentences!
  • pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    According to seemingly reputable research, the NI rise will soak middle income earners worse than those on six figures, which is helpful to the bank balances of MPs and party donors alike. Though, of course, the main thing is that pensioners don't have to pay it.

    Has anyone looked at the age breakdowns on all the recent polls and attempted to ascertain the average age of the remaining cohort of those still intending to vote Conservative? It must be at least 60 by now.
    That is wrong.

    Those earning over £100,000 will pay over £1,000 extra NI. Those earning £20,000 just £89 extra
    Earners of £100,000 a year could end up paying proportionately less in national insurance than those on middle incomes if a planned increase goes through in April, it has emerged.

    Figures produced by the Tax Calculator UK website show those earning £100,000 a year will pay just 7% of their overall salary in national insurance contributions (NICs) – the same proportion of their income as someone on £20,000 a year.

    ...

    While the Treasury has repeatedly claimed the increase is “progressive”, figures published on Friday by the online tax calculator show that workers earning between £30,000 and £50,000 will be the hardest hit by far.

    It calculates that someone earning £50,000 a year will pay £5,086 a year in NICs alone after April – a £505 increase – amounting to 10% of their gross salary.

    While someone earning £100,000 a year is set to pay the highest national insurance bill – £7,008 a year (an increase of £1,130), the proportion of their pre-tax income paid in NICs will be just 7%. Those on £30,000 a year will pay 9% of their gross salary in NICs.

    ...

    From April, NICs are set to be charged at 13.25% on most earnings up to £50,000 but at just 3.25% on income above that threshold.


    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jan/28/middle-income-earners-hit-hardest-national-insurance-higher-percentage-uk-rishi-sunak

    The last part is my emphasis: a reminder that, in direct contrast to income tax, the rate of NI for employees is, of course, greatly reduced on incomes above a certain level.
    It's getting to the point where everything he says is as much of a lie as everything his beloved Boris says.

    I read the claim, thought "utter bollocks" but couldn't be bothered getting the link to demonstrate that it's bollocks.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Evening All :)

    Early news from Portugal - turnout looks to be in the mid-50s.

    The Socialists are ahead of the Social Democrats but the range of projections is very wide at this time. It looks as though the Socialist Government of Antonio Costs will have just shy of 110 seats in the new National Assembly with the Social Democrats around 90. No other party will make double figures but Costa will be hoping to get as close to 115 for a majority and not have to rely on too many of the minor left parties.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
    Chancellor made it clear he'd resign if overruled I suspect.
  • Some sick came up when I saw this but caring is sharing right?


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Donald Trump going for Speaker could save the Dems in the midterms.

    Sounds like he wouldn't go for anything. They would simply vote him in once they win the House. Absolutely fucking mental plan, but perfectly same if you are a GOPper
    It is mildly risky, mind.

    Trump will want to take the Dems on, and to compromise on nothing. That will inevitably lead to the shutdown of government.

    Historically, that has been a Brucy bonus for the President, and a disaster for whoever controls the House.
    Also, doesn't it involve quite a lot of actual work, and procedural stuff? Things that Trump has historically proved he is extremely bad at?
    Well, I guess it would do for a normal person as Speaker, but what if Trump were elected into the post and just didn't show except on days when it interested him? I guess the business of the House would mostly come to a halt, except for when it was voting on the "Make Trump President Again Resolution", and I don't think Trump would have a problem with that.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Aslan said:

    Donald Trump going for Speaker could save the Dems in the midterms.

    Sounds like he wouldn't go for anything. They would simply vote him in once they win the House. Absolutely fucking mental plan, but perfectly same if you are a GOPper
    It is mildly risky, mind.

    Trump will want to take the Dems on, and to compromise on nothing. That will inevitably lead to the shutdown of government.

    Historically, that has been a Brucy bonus for the President, and a disaster for whoever controls the House.
    Historically. But as the next step would be for a patriot to John Wilkes Booth the incumbents off the stage they won't much care
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Can’t deny his turn of phrase…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/30/dominic-cummings-says-it-is-his-duty-to-get-rid-of-boris-johnson
    … Dominic Cummings has said it is his “duty to get rid” of Boris Johnson as prime minister, describing it as “sort of like fixing the drains”.

    The prime minister’s former chief adviser called his former boss a “complete fuckwit” whose only preoccupations were “Big Ben’s bongs” and “looking at maps” to “order the building of things” in his honour…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    You also have to wonder what Ben Foakes has to do to get another game!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    The CESOP exit poll has the Socialists seven points ahead of the Social Democrats (39.5 - 32.5). It's a small swing to the opposition but less than 1%.

    CHEGA look to be a clear third with 6.5% with Liberal Initiative on 5% and Left Bloc on 4.5%.
  • ydoethur said:

    You also have to wonder what Ben Foakes has to do to get another game!

    Improve his keeping and batting.

    He's nearly as bad as James Bracey.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I think people have become a bit over obsessed with the Sue Gray Report and the worst may have passed for Johnson on that front for the time being. I await to see what the polls show going forward, most likely a 5-10% lead as economic issues also come into play but we'll see.

    High content post. We await your further thoughts, going forward.
  • England will be chasing 250 plus so I reckon I should go to bed now to avoid the shellacking.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints of the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Bit more to it than that, I reckon.

    On one hand, Boris is a massive problem for the Conservatives (let alone the country). His temperament just makes him unfit for the job he has. That has hit Conservative ratings, and things will get worse from here, because they always do.

    https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1487080749807382528?t=jgEwPCjsafwehYZGYlzQZA&s=19

    On the other, Boris is the only person with the Verve, Nerve and Menace to hold things together. Nobody else will succeed, and they probably won't even try. Rishi, for example, is a straightforward Treasury axeman, who will struggle to sell austerity 2.0 the to the public.

    Besides, at some level, all the munchkins seem terrified of Big Dog Boris. I don't fully get it, but they are.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Jordon over, first ball short 4. Second ball yorker dot. Third just a bit short 6. Surely there is a message in here?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    You also have to wonder what Ben Foakes has to do to get another game!

    Improve his keeping and batting.

    He's nearly as bad as James Bracey.
    Since both are far better than Jos Buttler, and Billings has not pulled up any trees in this tournament, either you are being sarcastic or you need your eyes testing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stereodog said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
    Chancellor made it clear he'd resign if overruled I suspect.
    I think so too
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    You also have to wonder what Ben Foakes has to do to get another game!

    Improve his keeping and batting.

    He's nearly as bad as James Bracey.
    Since both are far better than Jos Buttler, and Billings has not pulled up any trees in this tournament, either you are being sarcastic or you need your eyes testing.
    Johnny Bairstow is the best keeper in England, he should keep in all formats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    You also have to wonder what Ben Foakes has to do to get another game!

    Improve his keeping and batting.

    He's nearly as bad as James Bracey.
    Since both are far better than Jos Buttler, and Billings has not pulled up any trees in this tournament, either you are being sarcastic or you need your eyes testing.
    Johnny Bairstow is the best keeper in England, he should keep in all formats.
    OK, so problem identified. But don't worry, these guys can help:

    https://www.specsavers.co.uk/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    Oh come, come, we all have wealthy benefactors, media magnate friends, or wives we can rely on for a buckshee bunk up surely.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Roger said:

    The Joe Rogan pile on continues...

    Harry and Meghan reveal Spotify Covid row concerns
    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-60191264

    I just listened to Joni Mitchell for the first time this millennium so assuming I'm not the only one her spat with Spotify wasn't all negative (Great voice. I'd forgotten)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcrEqIpi6sg
    Weirdly, I only discovered River by accident late last year.

    An absolutely beautiful song.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Besides, at some level, all the munchkins seem terrified of Big Dog Boris. I don't fully get it, but they are.

    They know he is ruthless.

    He will throw anybody under the bus if it saves him for a day.
  • Nigelb said:

    Can’t deny his turn of phrase…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/30/dominic-cummings-says-it-is-his-duty-to-get-rid-of-boris-johnson
    … Dominic Cummings has said it is his “duty to get rid” of Boris Johnson as prime minister, describing it as “sort of like fixing the drains”.

    The prime minister’s former chief adviser called his former boss a “complete fuckwit” whose only preoccupations were “Big Ben’s bongs” and “looking at maps” to “order the building of things” in his honour…

    It's all true, but a bit of contrition from the man who propelled him there wouldn't go amiss.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Stereodog said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
    Chancellor made it clear he'd resign if overruled I suspect.
    Tricky to pull it, having been whipped through just 3 months ago.

    Which reminds me that the shambles didn't start with Paterson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    It's all true, but a bit of contrition from the man who propelled him there wouldn't go amiss.

    You need to read the other quotes.

    Cummings thought he would be in charge.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stereodog said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
    Chancellor made it clear he'd resign if overruled I suspect.
    I think so too
    Whatever happens in the short term we're now entering a post Boris world. An acquaintance of mine has jumped ship from a job with Boris in No 10 to a job with Truss in the FCO. The Chancellor will increasingly dominate the domestic agenda because his resignation would bring down the government. The various back bench factions are searching the Augeian Stables for their dark horse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Highest score in T20I cricket 278/3

    Highest score between long established Test nations 263/3

    I'm thinking both those records are in even more danger than the spectators...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    Impossible to explain

    42% to 36% thinh SKS and Reeves would be best for country's finances despite the fact they have completely fooked Labours up to the extent the Party is on the verge of Bankruptcy.

    Oh well I am sure they might change their mind when Labour files
    Corbyn lost a no confidence vote of his own MPs 197-40. Don't you think pointing out Starmer's shortcomings under the circumstances is a little ridiculous?
    172-40 to be exact.

    Couldn't have been the figure you quoted as Labour only had 231 MPs at the time!
    Couldn't MPs from Bradford vote twice or more, like their constituents at election times?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    It's all true, but a bit of contrition from the man who propelled him there wouldn't go amiss.

    You need to read the other quotes.

    Cummings thought he would be in charge.
    Given a choice between Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings being in charge of anything from a whelk stall on up, give me Johnson every time. He gets sacked for lying, not for lying and failing.

    Well, until now, obviously.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    I called this the other day: I said it was only a matter of (short) time before they took a lead on the economy. People are realising that the government is going to clobber them with new taxes at the exact moment we are trying to facilitate a recovery. Absolute madness.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    More people would back a Labour government led by Keir Starmer with Rachel Reeves as Chancellor than the Tories when it comes to who is best for the British economy.

    An exclusive poll for the Mirror found that 42% of people would back the Labour team to run the nation's finances over just 36% who support Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak to do it.

    Crucially, the findings by Deltapoll also show that Labour has a stronger reputation for economic competence than the Tories in seats which Mr Johnson gained at the last election.

    The results also put Mr Starmer ahead of the Prime Minister on leadership, with the Labour leader getting a +4 approval rating compared with Mr Johnson's -4.

    It means that the Conservatives are substantially behind Labour on both leadership and the economy - with no party ever going on to win a general election from that position.

    The poll gave Labour a 10-point lead over the Tories, one point up from the previous poll to 42%, suggesting the Opposition's lead is holding for the time being.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/more-voters-would-back-labour-26090456

    That should put some lead in tory pencils tomorrow

    Seems an odd time to release polling news, but then perhaps my previous para resolves that question

    I think Reeves would make a fantastic Chancellor, if not PM. She is ultra bright and has the credentials and - like me - cannot grasp why putting money back in the pockets of working people is supposedly ‘rightwing’. Her last minute stand in for Keir at the Budget revealed a star in the making.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    10% Labour lead with Deltapoll.

    Starmer+Reeves also beating Johnson+Sunak by 6% on the economy.

    @bigjohnowls please explain!
    Impossible to explain

    42% to 36% thinh SKS and Reeves would be best for country's finances despite the fact they have completely fooked Labours up to the extent the Party is on the verge of Bankruptcy.

    Oh well I am sure they might change their mind when Labour files
    Corbyn lost a no confidence vote of his own MPs 197-40. Don't you think pointing out Starmer's shortcomings under the circumstances is a little ridiculous?
    172-40 to be exact.

    Couldn't have been the figure you quoted as Labour only had 231 MPs at the time!
    Couldn't MPs from Bradford vote twice or more, like their constituents at election times?
    Yes but Naz Shah and Imran Hussain were big Corbynistas so would have counted in the column Roger got right. In fact Naz Shah was actually suspended from Labour while Corbyn was leader because she's such a racist twat.

    I suppose Chris Leslie and Judith Cummins might have voted multiple times (I don't know enough about John Grogan to comment on his views) but that would hardly have made a difference
  • Scott_xP said:

    It's all true, but a bit of contrition from the man who propelled him there wouldn't go amiss.

    You need to read the other quotes.

    Cummings thought he would be in charge.
    I'm sure he did.

    But that just indicates Cummings's sauce (you want to be in charge, you win a blooming election) and stupidity (Boris is now in charge and Dom is howling into the ether).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scott_xP said:

    It's all true, but a bit of contrition from the man who propelled him there wouldn't go amiss.

    You need to read the other quotes.

    Cummings thought he would be in charge.
    I'm sure he did.

    But that just indicates Cummings's sauce (you want to be in charge, you win a blooming election) and stupidity (Boris is now in charge and Dom is howling into the ether).
    Yes, but he always was dim as a two watt bulb. Remember his comically inept exam reforms.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    @HYUFD should factor in the tax increase on graduates too
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    How bad have things got when Liam Livingstone is your best bowler?!!
  • @HYUFD - You recently speculated that Morrison would get a boost because of the djokovic decision.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/pm-scott-morrison-faces-electoral-wipeout-with-support-plunging-according-to-newspoll/news-story/622c0a7dd7ca767f9a85180ef3ac957b

    2PP is 56/44 in Labor's favour. That's a landside in Australian elections.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    Would this be the very same Tory Party who is about to clobber workers with new taxes, when Labour opposes them?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    ydoethur said:

    Highest score in T20I cricket 278/3

    Highest score between long established Test nations 263/3

    I'm thinking both those records are in even more danger than the spectators...

    I'm guessing about 190 for the Windies. Which may well be enough unless someone plays a blinder.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Stereodog said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stereodog said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a £1.5 million mansion in Yorkshire, £7 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Wrong, there's a reason why Sunak's ratings are so much better than Johnson's.

    But we all know once Johnson goes you'll give Sunak your slavish donation.
    I am currently reading Ashcroft's biography of Sunak, of course I would back him if Tory leader I just still believe Boris is still our best bet having won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 2019.

    There are also zero policy differences between Boris and Sunak I can see
    The problem is Boris is the problem

    He is paralysing government with his bad judgement and arrogance, which has given labour the opening on the economy, while all Boris affirms is a NI rise

    Cressida Dick total incompetence has filleted Sue Gray's report, and I detect a weariness amongst the population who want to hear how the conservatives are going to address their cost of living

    I understand an announcement will be made shortly but that is the problem, shortly hands the initiative to labour and when an announcement is made labour will respond by saying we have been demanding help while the PM lies and attends parties whilst the rest of the nation was enduring lockdowns and many were grieving

    You do not see the optics, but then you are blind to them and it does not do you any credit whatsoever to accept the awful portrait this paints if the conservative party and your beloved Boris

    You are not very good at politics are you
    Sunak and Boris have just published a joint article backing the NI rise, there is not a tissue paper between them on policy

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-wins-tug-of-war-over-national-insurance-hike-f85bzgs76
    Do you think they did that jointly out of brotherly lurve, or because one strongarmed the other? If the latter, which way round?
    Chancellor made it clear he'd resign if overruled I suspect.
    I think so too
    Whatever happens in the short term we're now entering a post Boris world. An acquaintance of mine has jumped ship from a job with Boris in No 10 to a job with Truss in the FCO. The Chancellor will increasingly dominate the domestic agenda because his resignation would bring down the government. The various back bench factions are searching the Augeian Stables for their dark horse.
    Yes, it is now a post Johnson world, just a question how long before Big Dog gets that last trip to the vet.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    Would this be the very same Tory Party who is about to clobber workers with new taxes, when Labour opposes them?
    Freezing the student loan repayment threshold when inflation is at 5%+
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the context of DeltaPoll and the tories being seen as behind on the economy..

    The national insurance rise amidst a cost of living crisis is…political suicide?

    Yup, I was told it gets worse.

    Add the fact 'Billionaire Rishi Sunak is proposing increase your taxes and for other working families' and the support and the policy becomes even more unpopular.
    What about 'Ex Goldman Sachs banker, son in law of a billionaire and owner of a more than £1 million mansion in Yorkshire, £5 million pound townhouse in Kensington and luxury apartment in California is proposing to increase your NI paid?'

    Surely that would sweep the Tories to victory if Boris goes?
    Nobody minds any of that, the red wall positively admire the likes of simon cowell and all those footbally guys for having loadsamoney
    Simon Cowell and footballers are not proposing to increase their tax and NI paid though.

    Major only got a bounce over Thatcher in 1990 as he promised to scrap the poll tax not keep a tax rise
    How did that crap at penalties guy propose to fund the school meals then?

    Bozza iz fukt.
    If people want to pay higher taxes they will vote Labour.

    People who want lower taxes vote Tory and if the Tories raise their taxes too much those voters will stay home or go RefUK
    Would this be the very same Tory Party who is about to clobber workers with new taxes, when Labour opposes them?
    It's better than that. They're clobbering workers and employers.
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