Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
And there are plenty I know where @HYFUD’s analysis is right. It will be a trade off but, on balance, I think @HYFUD is right.
The problem is that even if @HYUFD is right for 90% of 2019 Conservative voters, that's still a fairly meaningful drop in the Conservative vote.
Yes, but you are assuming that everything else stays the same, which it probably will not. Labour is seeing shifts away from it from other ethnic groups (Indian Hindu / Sikhs etc) plus a further drop off in traditional “Labour until I die” voters. Labour has been seeing structural shifts in its vote since 2005 at least. 2019 just accelerated many of those trends.
And yet Labour are still ahead in the polls. Curious.
And three to four months ago, we were talking on here about whether to bet on Labour having an opinion poll lead in 2021.
Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
You voted for Cameron in 2015 but LD in 2019 I believe so I already included you in my small category of voters who might switch back to the Tories under Sunak ie wealthy graduates on the whole not keen on a very hard Brexit but fiscally Conservative.
White working class voters in the redwall though who were very keen on Brexit but also pro big state and socially conservative would probably go the other way if Sunak replaced Boris, back to Labour
They have already switched back though. My opinion is that it had very little to do with Brexit and everything to do with Corbyn. Mike has demonstrated this on a number of headers but you are in denial. No Corbyn= no red wall seats. The Tories need a new election strategy and fast. The first part of that strategy needs to be to get rid of The Clown. Personally I still think he will be gone by June. After then you will have to swear undying fealty to the next leader of the Party. Praise him/her/they (delete as appropriate)
The redwall voted for Corbyn in 2017.
They only switched to the Tories in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done
Nah, that's overly simplistic. Corbyn was a meme in 2017 but he was literal shit on a shoe in 2019. Brexit is just one factor.
'What changed with Corbyn between 2017 and 2019' is one of the great political puzzles from that time. As you say, there's no simply answer - there were many intertwined dynamics that gave rise to that puzzle and several others.
Salisbury
Yes, I've heard that suggested before. It was an obvious idiocy from Corbyn, but I just don't recall it getting much (if any) media attention at the time - certainty nothing along the lines of Cherie's-Flat-Gate or Yacht-Gate, which were utterly trivial in comparison but dominated the news for days.
Your media consumption differs from mine. What on earth is Yachtgate?
George Osborne had a drink on some rich bloke's yacht.
nope, not ringing any bells
George Osborne was on a yacht tapping up dodgy Russian donations for the Tories. Peter Mandelson blabbed.
Yeah, I see this was happening back in 2008, I was working abroad at the time so guess this story didn't make waves overseas.
Interesting that the Tories have been associated with dodgy Russians for so long.
Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
And there are plenty I know where @HYFUD’s analysis is right. It will be a trade off but, on balance, I think @HYFUD is right.
The problem is that even if @HYUFD is right for 90% of 2019 Conservative voters, that's still a fairly meaningful drop in the Conservative vote.
Yes, but you are assuming that everything else stays the same, which it probably will not. Labour is seeing shifts away from it from other ethnic groups (Indian Hindu / Sikhs etc) plus a further drop off in traditional “Labour until I die” voters. Labour has been seeing structural shifts in its vote since 2005 at least. 2019 just accelerated many of those trends.
And yet Labour are still ahead in the polls. Curious.
And three to four months ago, we were talking on here about whether to bet on Labour having an opinion poll lead in 2021.
Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
And there are plenty I know where @HYFUD’s analysis is right. It will be a trade off but, on balance, I think @HYFUD is right.
The problem is that even if @HYUFD is right for 90% of 2019 Conservative voters, that's still a fairly meaningful drop in the Conservative vote.
Yes, but you are assuming that everything else stays the same, which it probably will not. Labour is seeing shifts away from it from other ethnic groups (Indian Hindu / Sikhs etc) plus a further drop off in traditional “Labour until I die” voters. Labour has been seeing structural shifts in its vote since 2005 at least. 2019 just accelerated many of those trends.
And yet Labour are still ahead in the polls. Curious.
And three to four months ago, we were talking on here about whether to bet on Labour having an opinion poll lead in 2021.
Things change very quickly.
...and?
Should be obvious given your post but I’ll spell it out.
If the polls show the Conservatives back in the lead with the leads they had, on your principle we should assume the Conservatives are well on track for 2024.
Now, I don’t believe that but I am merely taking your view that opinion polls are a guide to the future.
Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
And there are plenty I know where @HYFUD’s analysis is right. It will be a trade off but, on balance, I think @HYFUD is right.
That is perhaps because you are one of the few with the swivelly eyes methinks?
In yours (and others) eyes, I probably do but it is that implicit attitude of “I know better than you, you thicko” that meant your type both lost the Brexit battle and control of the Tory party. From an electoral standpoint, while you might think your group’s support is important, it’s quite small.
Well I would never have said such a thing, but based on that post those that did were probably right on both counts. The Tory Party will return to sanity in the same way as the Labour Party is. The grown ups will eventually "take back control" and The Clown and all his chancer lightweight fuckwits that he has put in positions way above their capability will be consigned to the political dustbin where they belong. After that has happened, and the realisation to even the most stupid that they have been conned will gradually filter down. Sadly it may mean that the Conservative Party is out of office for decades.
Mmmmm, well you don’t have much to back up your points so far do you? You switched from Tory to LD in 2019, yet BJ won the biggest majority for the Tories since 1987 and the biggest majority for any party since 2001. Sometimes a little humility might help out with things.
More people voted for other parties than voted for the Tories you know, even in 2019, so your arrogant tosh just wont wash.
The Progressive parties got 52% of the vote UK-wide, right-wing parties 47%, and others 1%.
The LDs are not always progressive, in 2010 they went into coalition with the Tories
That was 12 years ago. Doubt they will pair up with the Tories now!
Wiki says the LDs are "Centre to Cente-left", so leaning left.
No, LDs are split. Social Democrats are centre left, Orange Book LDs are centre right.
They are just united on being social liberals and having opposed Brexit
PLEASE STOP starting responses with "no" as though you are the font of all knowledge!!
All political parties in the UK are coalitions, the LDs are no different and if you have any perspective you will know they were the result of a merger. Suggesting that they are therefore "split" is partisan nonsense. They are almost certainly less "split" than the two main parties from what I can see.
Remember yesterday he said a family of 4 could holiday in Benidorm for £761 for 14 days
Clearly he has not taken a family of 4 abroad as he would have seen it was per person and the cost was £3,044
It is this type of fake news that let's him down and he not once acknowledges he is wrong on anything
I did however find one holiday for 4 to Benidorm for just over £1,000.
As I also correctly pointed out the more Spanish resorts and airlines price British families on an average wage out of holidays in peak season the more it will kill off the package summer holiday abroad.
The average family will stay in the UK in the summer and go to Swansea, Blackpool, Weymouth, Margate, Southend etc as their grandparents did, thus boosting the British tourist industry post Brexit instead.
Except for the rich going to the Mediterranean would be at most something the average British family does in winter or autumn when it would be cheap but still warmer than the UK
Anyone think this BJ thing is over listen to Any Answers. Listen particularly for ex John Major's Private Secretary (or similar). Hilarious. I'm not not talking studio audience I'm talking about the phone in afterwards. As a human being Johnson's finished
Most of the habitual Tories I know would not vote Tory today, or so they say. (I generally vote Tory in GEs but certainly would not so right now). But there is no sense of having given up on the Tories as such, any more than centrists gave up on Labour in the dark days of Corbyn.
I think that is correct
Conservative mps depose Boris and a new leader from Rishi , Truss, Hunt or Tugendhat with a clearance of cabinet inadequates of JRM, Dorries and a few others, would see a change of narrative
I will rejoin on Boris's exit which is more than likely some time this year
Hunt or Tugendhat are Remainers, I expect they would see barely any Remainers switch from Labour or LD to a Tories led by them post Brexit. However some Leavers currently voting Tory under Boris would likely switch to RefUK or Labour under them.
Truss was a Remainer even if now a committed Leaver and a libertarian, I expect she would also see leakage to RefUK and Labour, especially in the redwall. I also doubt any voters currently voting Labour or LD switch to a Truss led Tories.
Sunak as a Leaver is likely to see less switching to RefUK however I doubt he would win many voters from Labour or the LDs either. At most he might win a few voters back who voted for Cameron in 2015 but have voted LD for example since. However I also think he would not have the appeal Boris does to the white working class in the redwall
Total tosh. I know loads of people like myself that would happily return to the Conservative Party if The Clown is kicked out. You are obsessed with "Leavers and Remainers" even though you were a "remainer" yourself. It is yesterdays war, and very few people but the most swivel-eyed care. All I want is a competent, fiscally sensible, business friendly, socially liberal Conservative party back. Not this populist incompetent crap that we will continue top have under your idol "Boris". Wake up: he is a fuckwit.
And there are plenty I know where @HYFUD’s analysis is right. It will be a trade off but, on balance, I think @HYFUD is right.
The problem is that even if @HYUFD is right for 90% of 2019 Conservative voters, that's still a fairly meaningful drop in the Conservative vote.
Yes, but you are assuming that everything else stays the same, which it probably will not. Labour is seeing shifts away from it from other ethnic groups (Indian Hindu / Sikhs etc) plus a further drop off in traditional “Labour until I die” voters. Labour has been seeing structural shifts in its vote since 2005 at least. 2019 just accelerated many of those trends.
Of course.
But lots of things play out in different directions, all of which influence voters.
Over time, governments tend to become more unpopular. Not because they necessarily become any worse at governing, but because human nature is to attribute things that go well to your own effort, and to blame external actors for ones failures.
Comments
Things change very quickly.
Interesting that the Tories have been associated with dodgy Russians for so long.
If the polls show the Conservatives back in the lead with the leads they had, on your principle we should assume the Conservatives are well on track for 2024.
Now, I don’t believe that but I am merely taking your view that opinion polls are a guide to the future.
As I also correctly pointed out the more Spanish resorts and airlines price British families on an average wage out of holidays in peak season the more it will kill off the package summer holiday abroad.
The average family will stay in the UK in the summer and go to Swansea, Blackpool, Weymouth, Margate, Southend etc as their grandparents did, thus boosting the British tourist industry post Brexit instead.
Except for the rich going to the Mediterranean would be at most something the average British family does in winter or autumn when it would be cheap but still warmer than the UK
But lots of things play out in different directions, all of which influence voters.
Over time, governments tend to become more unpopular. Not because they necessarily become any worse at governing, but because human nature is to attribute things that go well to your own effort, and to blame external actors for ones failures.