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New revelations lead to Johnson 2022 exit a 77% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003

    I understand where TOPPING is trying to go but there's a difference between something is allowed, but needs to be scaled up in Number 10 as appropriate ... And saying something is completely verbotten, then Number 10 still doing it anyway.

    People recently trying to attack Liz Truss for her (entirely legal) spending while taking the US Trade Delegation for dinner was absurd. You don't take the US Trade Delegation out for KFC.

    But saying that parties are banned, no it's, no buts, then having them anyway ... That's a different matter.

    Wouldn't have been KFC in Trump's day, of course. Macdonalds.... maybe!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289

    vino said:

    vino said:



    True enough. I voted Communist in a council election in Leeds when I was an idealistic 18-year old.

    snap - Bulwell (east?) Nottingham 1987
    John Peck?
    I should think so? A Communist friend from Nottingham told me wryly that they worked for 20 years to get to the point that he was about become Mayor...whereupon he switched to the Greens. The key to his success was basically that he was a much-respected local GP.
    Hi Nick,
    Thought He turned Green as the CPGB was packing up - He was one of the nicest blokes I have ever met
    I wasn't around then (it was years later that I became friends with the ex-Communist from Nottingham, who by then was in Switzerland like me) so I'm sure you're right. Glad he was nice - the basic idea of "From each according to ability, to each according to means" is a kind one, though horribly perverted by powermongers and murderers over the years.
    Not preverted, but flawed, since the only possible way it can work without the horrors of the real experience is if everyone else is as nice as he was. Which they are not.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,649
    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    I interact with Russians based in Moscow most weeks. They largely think the West is barmy and are overplaying not very much into a massive crisis. And they are incredulous at the idea that Putin will do anything deserving of wide ranging sanctions.

    Not saying they are right of course. Just that it’s interesting how we are all a product of the informational narratives we consume (or that are fed to us).

    Meanwhile I see Biden is upping the stakes with more troops in the Baltics. Or to view it another way, he is clearly showing Putin his hand that he can do whatever he likes in Ukraine but mustn’t touch existing NATO states.

    Miserable times for some long suffering people ahead I think.

    Russian state media has been running the narrative for months now, both that Western nations are provoking Russia and that Ukraine is Russian territory.

    It’s a convenient narrative that gets away from a very poor Covid effort, and makes Putin seem like the rational man responding to the aggression of others, rather than being the agressor himself.
    The problem with these situations is that they quickly descend in to a fog. It is tempting to think of everything as a 'hitler annexing the sudetenland' moment, but every situation is unique.

    My concern is that the western powers don't ultimately have the same level of resolve as the Russians; resulting in a blusterous arrival (possibly as a distraction from its own Covid related problems) followed by a panic driven, humiliating withdrawal - like Kabul 2021.

    Looking at Russia; my feeling is that people in the UK don't want to know; they have progressively lost the narrative of post-war history over the past 3 decades and don't see what is at stake in Eastern Europe. Many decision makers in and outside government have spent their entire adult lives in a 'safe' western bubble, from the 1980's onwards. The sense of disinterest can be witnessed with the trashing of the centophah in 2020 and the indifference shown even by a supposedly conservative government. Experiences of war are dominated by Iraq and Afghanistan and popular narratives of the west being an aggressor.

    I think that Finland have got it right regarding Putin, as they have for dealing with Russia over the past 70 plus years. I hope that they don't make the error of joining NATO.
    It's also apparently tempting to think everything is Afghanistan redux. That's clearly not the case here.

    And do the people in Russia 'want to know' ?
    Not that they will be asked.
    Well I have an example of one - a Moscow colleague - who doesn’t want to know. And I don’t blame her. I’ll paste what ate said later when at my computer.

    I get the sense some in Russia have long realised their emperor has no clothes. But I am probably seeing an unrepresentative sample of metropolitan elite types.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    Margaret Thatcher would be turning in her grave:

    https://news.sky.com/story/surging-inflation-pushes-cost-of-servicing-govt-debt-to-december-record-of-8-1bn-12524749

    Does Sunak have a clue what he's doing? Why do we assume a hedge fund manager is fiscally competent? They're hardly known for prudence.

    Of course, in Maggie's day, the chancellor was responsible for controlling inflation.
    Yes, but if there ever were Prime Ministers more tempramentally and fiscally unlike than Thatcher and Johnson, then it is hard to think of two.
    I don't disagree, but they are/were of their times. Keeping the BoE base rate below 1% all through the coalition government was, quite frankly, an utter disgrace. But George Osborne was happy for the BoE to do it.

    The reality is, there are no politicians out there who are prepared to say "we need to live within our means".
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,265
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    Margaret Thatcher would be turning in her grave:

    https://news.sky.com/story/surging-inflation-pushes-cost-of-servicing-govt-debt-to-december-record-of-8-1bn-12524749

    Does Sunak have a clue what he's doing? Why do we assume a hedge fund manager is fiscally competent? They're hardly known for prudence.

    Of course, in Maggie's day, the chancellor was responsible for controlling inflation.
    Yes, but if there ever were Prime Ministers more tempramentally and fiscally unlike than Thatcher and Johnson, then it is hard to think of two.
    Agreed.

    When I studied economics we lived and breathed the PSBR. Getting that down was the golden rule of sound fiscal management.

    I recognise that things changed but in these times, permitting such high levels of Gov't debt whilst there are such huge inflationary pressures is reckless.

    So, unlike 1997 when the Conservatives handed to Labour a stunning economy (always remember this when evaluating Tony Blair), in 2024 the Conservatives are going to hand to Labour a sh*tshow.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    I interact with Russians based in Moscow most weeks. They largely think the West is barmy and are overplaying not very much into a massive crisis. And they are incredulous at the idea that Putin will do anything deserving of wide ranging sanctions.

    Not saying they are right of course. Just that it’s interesting how we are all a product of the informational narratives we consume (or that are fed to us).

    Meanwhile I see Biden is upping the stakes with more troops in the Baltics. Or to view it another way, he is clearly showing Putin his hand that he can do whatever he likes in Ukraine but mustn’t touch existing NATO states.

    Miserable times for some long suffering people ahead I think.

    Russian state media has been running the narrative for months now, both that Western nations are provoking Russia and that Ukraine is Russian territory.

    It’s a convenient narrative that gets away from a very poor Covid effort, and makes Putin seem like the rational man responding to the aggression of others, rather than being the agressor himself.
    The problem with these situations is that they quickly descend in to a fog. It is tempting to think of everything as a 'hitler annexing the sudetenland' moment, but every situation is unique.

    My concern is that the western powers don't ultimately have the same level of resolve as the Russians; resulting in a blusterous arrival (possibly as a distraction from its own Covid related problems) followed by a panic driven, humiliating withdrawal - like Kabul 2021.

    Looking at Russia; my feeling is that people in the UK don't want to know; they have progressively lost the narrative of post-war history over the past 3 decades and don't see what is at stake in Eastern Europe. Many decision makers in and outside government have spent their entire adult lives in a 'safe' western bubble, from the 1980's onwards. The sense of disinterest can be witnessed with the trashing of the centophah in 2020 and the indifference shown even by a supposedly conservative government. Experiences of war are dominated by Iraq and Afghanistan and popular narratives of the west being an aggressor.

    I think that Finland have got it right regarding Putin, as they have for dealing with Russia over the past 70 plus years. I hope that they don't make the error of joining NATO.
    It's also apparently tempting to think everything is Afghanistan redux. That's clearly not the case here.

    And do the people in Russia 'want to know' ?
    Not that they will be asked.
    Well I have an example of one - a Moscow colleague - who doesn’t want to know. And I don’t blame her. I’ll paste what ate said later when at my computer.

    I get the sense some in Russia have long realised their emperor has no clothes. But I am probably seeing an unrepresentative sample of metropolitan elite types.
    I have another anecdote. An acquaintance - a youngish female engineer, born and raised in Russia but has been working here in the UK for a decade. Highly educated and well paid; she married another Russian professional over here.

    She only reads Russian news services, and her views are somewhat biased.
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    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    Margaret Thatcher would be turning in her grave:

    https://news.sky.com/story/surging-inflation-pushes-cost-of-servicing-govt-debt-to-december-record-of-8-1bn-12524749

    Does Sunak have a clue what he's doing? Why do we assume a hedge fund manager is fiscally competent? They're hardly known for prudence.

    Of course, in Maggie's day, the chancellor was responsible for controlling inflation.
    Yes, but if there ever were Prime Ministers more tempramentally and fiscally unlike than Thatcher and Johnson, then it is hard to think of two.
    I don't disagree, but they are/were of their times. Keeping the BoE base rate below 1% all through the coalition government was, quite frankly, an utter disgrace. But George Osborne was happy for the BoE to do it.

    The reality is, there are no politicians out there who are prepared to say "we need to live within our means".
    But before the bubble bursts, would any politician who said that get elected? (See today's headlines re the NI increase.)
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,797

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    NASDAQ taking a further hammering today.

    Not as bad as the European markets including London. But, then, they are not facing the largest war since Gulf War 1 on their doorstep with millions of refugees fleeing into western Europe. are they?
    But the UK is obsessed about parties
    That is as stupid as saying the Huhne case was just about speeding. You may not mind being governed by a liar, but there are valid objections to it
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.

    Yes it is ridiculous. But the man we must assume is behind it is refusing to be interviewed and is playing his own games with the investigation and with us.

    And this is making me really annoyed. The investigation is not there to dance to the tune of Cummings or anyone else. It's not there so he can have his vendettas against the PM or his wife or anyone else. It's not there to be held hostage to his vanity and sense of self-entitlement.

    I'd be half inclined to call a halt to it and say that, in order to be fair to all concerned, she's referring the evidence collected to the police so that they can take it further as they have powers to obtain evidence and interviews she does not have.

    Where there is sufficient evidence for disciplinary proceedings short of criminal action she will assist the relevant HR departments in the normal way.
    Armchair expertise. in the real world, Gray has no power to compel witnesses; there is no protocol which says that oral evidence is to be preferred to written; as far as we know (and we have only heard from Cummings) she has come to an agreement with him that his evidence should be written; should that not be the case, she will no doubt say so in her report.

    As she can only take statements (not have exams in chief/cross exams by Counsel) the written vs oral distinction is absolutely irrelevant here.
    Armchair expertise?

    You're describing yourself I imagine.

    Because I'm afraid - and at the risk of being called patronising again and on the basis of my experience in the real world of investigations - on this topic you give the impression you have no idea what you are talking about. Investigations are not like Commercial Court litigation, as you seem to think. It is perfectly possible for a good trained investigator to do an interview without the need for examination in chief, cross-examination etc, it is not good practice to accept written evidence without an interview and if someone external is prepared to co-operate they should do so properly.

    Cummings cannot be compelled. Though it would be interesting to see whether he is under any ongoing contractual obligation to assist his former employer under the terms of his departure, a clause I have often seen in departure agreements. But he can be criticised for the way he is responding. And I do. He is undermining the investigation though doubtless she is doing her best given the terms of reference and the pressure she will be under.
    If I was being asked to support this investigation after leaving my reaction would be the same as Mr Cummings, I would want a paper trail to ensure I wasn’t intentional misinterpreted
    There are ways of doing this while still doing a face to face interview.

    The problem here is that Cummings appears to want to control matters. He can't. And he shouldn't be allowed to.
    Off Topic

    @Cyclefree

    Talking of controlling matters, have you seen the story in the Guardian about Dr Konstancja Duff. Another humdinger of an arrest and strip search at the notorious Stoke Newington nick, oh and the subsequent failed prosecution and civil action between the Professor and the Met.

    Little sympathy on here I would wager. She looks a bit "Me too, woke".
    Interesting story. As someone who was subjected to a vaguely similar ordeal by the police 20 years ago I've got a lot of sympathy for her and the fact that she fought this out for years and eventually won.

    However, I can also see that it really isn't a good idea for members of the public to obstruct police actions. You can't ever know what you are getting in to.
    It is a horrible story.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/24/met-apologises-to-academic-for-sexist-derogatory-language
    Yes but there are some quite important details that the guardian have missed.
    Firstly, the guy that the police were searching actually had a knife on him.
    Secondly, after intervening in their operation to hand out her card, she engaged in 'passive resistance', forcing her to be carried to the van.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-45439954

    So, you think that justifies their misogyny and similar remarks?
    I'm as dismayed by their seeming to have been able to commit what looks a fairly serious assault without subsequent consequence.
    And I'm not sure why they felt the need to detain her for "handing out a card"
    Her prosecution was also unnecessary, if not malicious.
    I can imagine the plod at the point of the arrest gave her the opportunity not to intervene and she chose to carry on. Aggravated plod, she is obstructing the police. From then on, going limp, not answering questions, the whole lot, is almost designed to piss them off.
    I’m not saying the police were in the right, but she surely didn’t help herself.
    Yes but you are relying on ancient wisdom here about the police and how they work. A lot of people on here believe believe that policing should be more like social work. This is not a new idea, of course. It is the type of utopian left wing thinking that the police were accusing this academic of, and they tried and failed to teach her a lesson about.

    This is why the detail - that the person being subjected to the search she tried to intervene in was actually armed - is important. And noticeably overlooked in the guardian article.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,960
    I might be a miserable grinch but what is this fucking obsession with grown adults having to celebrate every birthday?

    I get it for children and I get it for special birthdays such as 50 but I am amazed how so many people I know in their 30’s and 40’s have to make such a fuss to the point where they have to have a whole weekend devoted to lunches or dinners.

    Carrie bringing a cake into the office is just another example of this vapid nonsense about adults’ birthdays. Half the time it also seems to be more about the person throwing the celebration than the actual birthday boy or girl - “look what I’ve done, aren’t I marvellous, isn’t it the best cake, didn’t I do well”…..

    PS it’s not my birthday today and I didn’t get any presents but really people, get over the birthday hype!
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,816

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parties gate is analogous to the expenses scandal.

    There was and seems now is a blurring of the distinction between rules and acceptable behaviour. Every MP asked and was given permission for their expenses but the public was outraged.

    There is no doubt there is a huge grey area around "No10" as a home/workplace. Add to that the fact that it is also the heart of government and we are where we are.

    Not helped by Boris' evident disinclination to study the actual rules and the public having a why doesn't the PM go on official state visits via easyJet and take the president of Urumba to KFC moment.

    There's no grey area. Social gatherings including food and drink were explicitly disallowed under the rules. Singing was also disallowed. Many people were fined under these two provisions of the rules.
    Then SKS should have been fined also for having a drink at that constituency office.

    No.10 is a special case. It runs the country and, thinking shots of the White House in The West Wing, is a home and an office intertwined. It is carrying out what I would have no hesitation in calling essential services, all of it, and doesn't and shouldn't follow *all* the rules that Joe's Kebab House or even KPMG follows.
    This is clearly nonsense. People from all over the building, and apparently Whitehal, reassembled in one room, for the clear purpose of a gathering that was explicitly disallowed under the rules, including food, drink and singing for a social, rather than work reason. Added to that, these were the people *making the rules*, not Keir Starmer and his lunchtime beer .

    Absurd.
    There are subtleties to this. Gathering a disparate set of people in a room specifically to sing Happy Birthday and have cake would be a breach.

    Having the cake cut, divided out and then conducting cabinet (or another meeting with a suitable invite list for the business at hand) would be a much greater area and potentially OK.

    Again, there were other people in shot on the SKS photo, but I'm not convinced he was mixing rather than having lunch by a desk. If he'd been sitting it would have been better. The fact we only seem to have a single shot of this activity, when multiple shots would have been taken through that window, suggests to me that it wasn't that incriminating and probably bears out SKSs explanation.

    But, I'm open to new facts and interpretation of exactly what was going on in each case relative to what the rules were at the time - and the two events were at different times.
    But there's also the context. Johnson seems to have been involved in and tolerated multiple gatherings, throughout lockdown. What this indicates is his underlying attitude. There's no such allegations or information against Starmer, and again, judging by his general demeanor and leadership style, that's no surprise, either.
    Agreed totally that is the bigger picture. But for each individual circumstance the question 'was that a breach?' needs to be answered if a particular event is to be considered part of the overall narrative, and perhaps some things fall by the wayside by doing that.

    The conclusion that Boris was taking the absolute piss and SKS wasn't cannot be avoided.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,409
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    I'm old-fashioned enough to believe that spiralling Gov't debt is a recipe for inflation which in the 1970's was the curse of the age.

    Just because we haven't experienced much of it in recent years doesn't mean it cannot return. Inflation is a blight on everyone, with dire knock-on effects right across the economy.

    I simply cannot believe that we have this high tax, high spend policy in place.

    Let's be honest and frank: this Conservative Government is not a Conservative government.

    Before Covid, that was also true. Boris ran against Cameron and May's Conservatism. Boris had pinched a lot from Corbyn's Labour. As I said at the time, both sides would need to do a lot of reverse ferreting as the government pursued policies it had previously attacked, and that Labour would attack policies it had previously advocated.

    This is part of Boris's problem. Red Wall MPs want Boris to pursue those policies. Traditional Conservative MPs want them ditched and a return to what they have come to see as normality. Brexit and Covid complicate matters but this is another fault line that should not be ignored.
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    I understand where TOPPING is trying to go but there's a difference between something is allowed, but needs to be scaled up in Number 10 as appropriate ... And saying something is completely verbotten, then Number 10 still doing it anyway.

    People recently trying to attack Liz Truss for her (entirely legal) spending while taking the US Trade Delegation for dinner was absurd. You don't take the US Trade Delegation out for KFC.

    But saying that parties are banned, no it's, no buts, then having them anyway ... That's a different matter.

    Liz Truss's problem was not the spending per se but the attempted cover-up.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,846
    I expect the Sue Gray report to be scathing over events in no 10 but to leave lots of ambiguity around whether Johnson was aware of the parties . So something like “ it was not possible to determine whether the PM “ knew of these .

    The whole process though is deeply flawed . Asking an employee to mark the bosses homework is laughable.

    Johnson will continue with his “ I didn’t know it was a party and thought it was a work event mantra and hope that’s enough to keep him in his job .”

    The problem here though is what else Cummings has by way of any photos etc. I think the media is expecting far too much from this report and I would be truly shocked if it contained anything close to a smoking gun.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,265
    One of Margaret Thatcher's greatest assets in her early years was that she was VERY in touch with people. I know that may come as a surprise to those who watched the sad latter days when she ill-advisedly shunted the poll tax on people (the Scots first as an experiment). But she knew about inflationary pressures and brought her aspirational state school background to bear on a country which was on its knees.

    In the beginning she spoke from the housewife's purse. I know that today we see such an idea as quaint and old-fashioned, but she instilled prudence into the heart of her Government. She knew that rampaging inflation was causing utter misery. The situation was not unlike today with runaway inflation and soaring crude oil prices.

    Margaret Thatcher knew the price of bread ...

    She and Boris Johnson are as far apart as any two Conservative Party leaders I can think of.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
    .@grantshapps on @BBCr4today on the PM's birthday celebration in No.10 in 2020:
    "I don’t want to present a defence because I would be adding speculation to speculation... I share a sense of unease about all this."


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1485888889697058830?s=20
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,265

    .@grantshapps on @BBCr4today on the PM's birthday celebration in No.10 in 2020:
    "I don’t want to present a defence because I would be adding speculation to speculation... I share a sense of unease about all this."


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1485888889697058830?s=20

    He also said something very ambivalent on Sky News: that he was furious with rule breakers.

    Shapps is distancing himself from the PM.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    Sounds like Shapps is close to giving up on defending the PM, on R4 now
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    boulay said:

    I might be a miserable grinch but what is this fucking obsession with grown adults having to celebrate every birthday?

    I get it for children and I get it for special birthdays such as 50 but I am amazed how so many people I know in their 30’s and 40’s have to make such a fuss to the point where they have to have a whole weekend devoted to lunches or dinners.

    Carrie bringing a cake into the office is just another example of this vapid nonsense about adults’ birthdays. Half the time it also seems to be more about the person throwing the celebration than the actual birthday boy or girl - “look what I’ve done, aren’t I marvellous, isn’t it the best cake, didn’t I do well”…..

    PS it’s not my birthday today and I didn’t get any presents but really people, get over the birthday hype!

    You're a miserable Grinch.

    That's like saying why should adults celebrate Christmas. Or why should adults watch sport? Or why should adults play games, watch movies, read fiction.

    We don't live in austere times where celebrations are impossible so why not celebrate your birthday?

    And if you have someone in your life who is good at and enjoys baking cakes then that's something lovely to enjoy too. My better half does all the cakes in my family and she puts a lot of love into it. How is that anything other than something to appreciate?
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    NEW THREAD

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,265
    Oh dear oh dear oh dear. He's been found out again. I 'think' he may have just deleted the tweet, which is going to make things worse.

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-live-news-uk-boris-johnson-sue-gray-report-parties-nusrat-ghani-12514080


    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1241348429546217475?s=20

    This is what Boris Johnson wrote to 7 year old Josephine who cancelled her birthday party:

    "Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.

    Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives"

    This is the kind of thing which really cuts through.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    I interact with Russians based in Moscow most weeks. They largely think the West is barmy and are overplaying not very much into a massive crisis. And they are incredulous at the idea that Putin will do anything deserving of wide ranging sanctions.

    Not saying they are right of course. Just that it’s interesting how we are all a product of the informational narratives we consume (or that are fed to us).

    Meanwhile I see Biden is upping the stakes with more troops in the Baltics. Or to view it another way, he is clearly showing Putin his hand that he can do whatever he likes in Ukraine but mustn’t touch existing NATO states.

    Miserable times for some long suffering people ahead I think.

    Russian state media has been running the narrative for months now, both that Western nations are provoking Russia and that Ukraine is Russian territory.

    It’s a convenient narrative that gets away from a very poor Covid effort, and makes Putin seem like the rational man responding to the aggression of others, rather than being the agressor himself.
    One wonders if by the time of the next Winter Olympics, things will have moved onto Russia carving out a corridor through Lithuania to Kaliningrad.
    I recall looking at maps published before WWII and reading, very early in my 'becoming aware' time of the isolation of that area, then, of course, East Prussia, part of Germany. I now occasionally meet, if only virtually, with someone whp teaches at the University of Gdansk, which on those old, stamp album maps was Danzig! And reading about the 'Polish Corridor'.
    I'm surprised you don't remember the days when the corridor and East Prussia were all part of Germany? ;)
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    The cake of this thread has been blown out and eaten.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,292
    boulay said:

    I might be a miserable grinch but what is this fucking obsession with grown adults having to celebrate every birthday?

    I get it for children and I get it for special birthdays such as 50 but I am amazed how so many people I know in their 30’s and 40’s have to make such a fuss to the point where they have to have a whole weekend devoted to lunches or dinners.

    Carrie bringing a cake into the office is just another example of this vapid nonsense about adults’ birthdays. Half the time it also seems to be more about the person throwing the celebration than the actual birthday boy or girl - “look what I’ve done, aren’t I marvellous, isn’t it the best cake, didn’t I do well”…..

    PS it’s not my birthday today and I didn’t get any presents but really people, get over the birthday hype!

    Isn't it just an excuse to have a bit of a celebration, to get together with people you like and spend time with them? And in workplaces it gives a little opportunity to build a relationship with people you might otherwise not choose to spend time with, but to get to know them in a more human way so that you will be more willing to help each other out when work gets difficult.

    We've decided to celebrate the eight points in the Celtic Calendar in some way, just as an excuse to mark the passage of the year, from darkness to light and back again. And, well, have some fun.
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    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    My father in law’s 80th and final birthday was done over FaceTime. There were tears. Birthday parties were definitely not allowed.

    I hope you have had the opportunity since to have many and happy parties with him.
    I think the clue was in the word "final" :(
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    Just caught up with the Minister actually resigning at the Dispatch Box - never seen that before, amazing, right down to the curt "Goodbye". When was the last time that happened?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/24/minister-resigns-in-protest-at-handling-of-fraudulent-covid-loans

    There was the slightly eccentric guy who resigned for being late to answer a question fairly recently.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    theProle said:

    I suspect Agnew's resignation due to the inadequate measures to check the validity of bounce back loans or to chase down fraud may harm Sunak. The Treasury's implementation of the scheme has been inadequate, and although civil servants may take the blame Sunak has ultimate responsibility. I know it's quite a lot of words, but here is what the National Audit Office concluded in December 21:

    Report conclusions
    To achieve the policy intention of supporting small businesses quickly during the pandemic, the government prioritised payment speed over almost all other aspects of value for money. The Scheme facilitated faster lending by removing credit and affordability checks and allowing businesses to self-certify their application documents. As the Scheme progressed, it continued to rely on businesses self- certifying their application details, even as the urgent need for finance reduced. Government ruled out options for additional upfront counter-fraud measures when the Scheme was extended. The impact of prioritising speed is apparent in the high levels of estimated fraud. Counter-fraud activity was implemented too slowly to prevent fraud effectively and the Department’s focus is now on detection and recovery of fraudulent loans.

    The Department needs to improve upon its identification, quantification, and recovery of fraudulent loans within the Scheme. Compared with the scale of its ‘most likely’ estimate of £4.9 billion of fraudulent loans, both the £32 million additional budget for counter-fraud operations, and its target to recover at least £6 million of fraudulent loans from organised crime, are inadequate. The Department has given low priority to tackling ‘bottom-tier’ fraud, including those loans where borrowers misstated turnover by less than 25%, owing to resource constraints. It expects lenders to focus on this fraud tier, but they have limited commercial incentives to do so.


    That's pretty damning. I expect Rachel Reeves to be all over this in the coming days. Parties will get the headlines, but this could also be damaging -Tories don't like wasting taxpayers' money.

    That should be even more newsworthy than parties. It’s about £73 for every person in the UK!
    Lay Sunak!
    I'm not entirely clear. Is this £5 billion where companies have taken out bounce back loans (possibly fraudulently) and then gone bump / failed to pay, or does it also include companies which got loans for which they were ineligible, but are currently still paying the loan back?

    £5 billion at the maximum £50k per loan is 100k loans out of ~1.5 million, or about 7%. If that's the loss rate, that's unsurprising given they were dishing out £50k loans left right and centre in the middle of a pandemic.
    My business has a bounceback loan. When I bought it, my accountant was quite surprised that the previous owners wanted to do a share sale - apparently a lot of unscrupulous types have been selling business as assets sales, running off with the loot then busting the old company complete with its unsecured debt - apparently doing this with a bounceback loan is pretty much consequence free.
    It may be in practice as the Minister was talking about but it shouldn't be. The liquidator or administrator of the insolvent company should be looking at fraudulent or wrongful trading which can incur personal liability on the directors' behalf as well as potential disqualification. The complaint of the Minister seemed to be that no one was interested in pushing this.

    Of course, a lot of businesses will have got bounce back loans and still, genuinely, gone bust because they were going bust anyway or because the pandemic adversely affected their business. But we really need to get on with pursuing those who were plainly at it. Obvious examples I have come across is where groups of companies have fraudulently obtained multiple loans.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    I interact with Russians based in Moscow most weeks. They largely think the West is barmy and are overplaying not very much into a massive crisis. And they are incredulous at the idea that Putin will do anything deserving of wide ranging sanctions.

    Not saying they are right of course. Just that it’s interesting how we are all a product of the informational narratives we consume (or that are fed to us).

    Meanwhile I see Biden is upping the stakes with more troops in the Baltics. Or to view it another way, he is clearly showing Putin his hand that he can do whatever he likes in Ukraine but mustn’t touch existing NATO states.

    Miserable times for some long suffering people ahead I think.

    Russian state media has been running the narrative for months now, both that Western nations are provoking Russia and that Ukraine is Russian territory.

    It’s a convenient narrative that gets away from a very poor Covid effort, and makes Putin seem like the rational man responding to the aggression of others, rather than being the agressor himself.
    One wonders if by the time of the next Winter Olympics, things will have moved onto Russia carving out a corridor through Lithuania to Kaliningrad.
    I recall looking at maps published before WWII and reading, very early in my 'becoming aware' time of the isolation of that area, then, of course, East Prussia, part of Germany. I now occasionally meet, if only virtually, with someone whp teaches at the University of Gdansk, which on those old, stamp album maps was Danzig! And reading about the 'Polish Corridor'.
    I'm surprised you don't remember the days when the corridor and East Prussia were all part of Germany? ;)
    I had stamp albums with such maps!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parties gate is analogous to the expenses scandal.

    There was and seems now is a blurring of the distinction between rules and acceptable behaviour. Every MP asked and was given permission for their expenses but the public was outraged.

    There is no doubt there is a huge grey area around "No10" as a home/workplace. Add to that the fact that it is also the heart of government and we are where we are.

    Not helped by Boris' evident disinclination to study the actual rules and the public having a why doesn't the PM go on official state visits via easyJet and take the president of Urumba to KFC moment.

    There's no grey area. Social gatherings including food and drink were explicitly disallowed under the rules. Singing was also disallowed. Many people were fined under these two provisions of the rules.
    Then SKS should have been fined also for having a drink at that constituency office.

    No.10 is a special case. It runs the country and, thinking shots of the White House in The West Wing, is a home and an office intertwined. It is carrying out what I would have no hesitation in calling essential services, all of it, and doesn't and shouldn't follow *all* the rules that Joe's Kebab House or even KPMG follows.
    This is clearly nonsense. People from all over the building, and apparently Whitehall, reassembled in one room, for the clear purpose of a gathering that was explicitly disallowed under the rules, including food, drink and singing, for a social, rather than work reason. Added to that, these were the people *making the rules*, not Keir Starmer and his single lunchtime beer.

    Absurd, and corrosive to public trust.
    Do you know that to be the case - "apparently Whitehall", etc.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    My father in law’s 80th and final birthday was done over FaceTime. There were tears. Birthday parties were definitely not allowed.

    I hope you have had the opportunity since to have many and happy parties with him. But was your father running the country at the time from his home/office.
    I'm fine with the PM running the country.

    I'm not fine with the PM breaking his own laws. Or setting laws upon us he didn't think it was reasonable to follow himself.
    My point is, a la the expenses scandal, that it is a grey area. As I'm pretty sure we will find out with the Gray report. Every MP who submitted a "dodgy" expenses report had first had it cleared by the department dealing with expenses (some MPs of course actually broke the law).

    No.10 is unique among all the "but my granny" stories because it is both a workplace and a home.

    That's not to say that public opinion nevertheless will not condemn him including at the ballot box because as you say the actions, though perhaps within the letter of the law, were nevertheless egregious enough to warrant public opinion censure.
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    boulay said:

    I might be a miserable grinch but what is this fucking obsession with grown adults having to celebrate every birthday?

    I get it for children and I get it for special birthdays such as 50 but I am amazed how so many people I know in their 30’s and 40’s have to make such a fuss to the point where they have to have a whole weekend devoted to lunches or dinners.

    Carrie bringing a cake into the office is just another example of this vapid nonsense about adults’ birthdays. Half the time it also seems to be more about the person throwing the celebration than the actual birthday boy or girl - “look what I’ve done, aren’t I marvellous, isn’t it the best cake, didn’t I do well”…..

    PS it’s not my birthday today and I didn’t get any presents but really people, get over the birthday hype!

    This post should have more likes!
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