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New revelations lead to Johnson 2022 exit a 77% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
New revelations lead to Johnson 2022 exit a 77% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
Johnson 2022 exit betting moves to 77% chance. @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/iwJnxznhKx
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What desperate times we live in.
Name and shame.
1) Boris doesn't think beyond the next 5 minutes
2) Boris can usually talk his way out of things. The issue Boris has is that everyone knows his tricks so he's been carefully navigated into a corner with no means of escape.
They need to be aces now, or else he’s seen maximum danger off.
Although it’s great to have Norman on Active duty again, 😃I thought we all agreed Parties can’t break this trench warfare stalemate on the back benches. It’s a weapon that has run its course and failed to make the breakthrough. Even pictures or video prove nothing in minds where it’s already proved. Boris has too many supporters believing him strong on policy and delivery, they can’t be further moved by party revelations.
No Norman, it needs something new! What else you got?
@DPJHodges
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52m
This is a classic example of the implications of Boris's failure to come clean at the start of this whole affair.
77% is over the top. More like 50/50
Kicking out a prime minister who has just delivered an historic majority is some seriously mad shit. But so are the endless accusations, most of which appear to be true…
Either way a very unlikely thing must happen. A prime minister is ejected by his own party two years after an incredible, historic victory, when he doesn’t have to face the voters for a long time, OR a prime minister survives the most well executed series of hugely damaging leaks in recent political memory
All makes sense now.
Bit of a theme emerging here. And quite clear on Twitter some of the BoJo loyalists are discrediting the birthday claim in the hope it doesn’t stick.
They are pathetic.
Sounds like most office birthdays and No 10 was still legally a workplace at the time.
Hardly a big party. Non story
ForgottenGenius
@ExStrategist
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The only time he didn't have a party was when he was on a ventilator
Out and about today - the man who cuts my hair, hitherto a staunch adherent of Boris Johnson, almost apoplectic in his fury (not helpful when holding scissors I thought). Some choice epithets which he felt able to express with the two women both under the dryer. "I don't trust any of them" - possibly not a wholly unique stance currently.
On way back into London, I am regaled by the Evening Back to the Desk or Standard as it used to be called. Reading it as I walked through an almost-deserted Bank Station just before 5, I was told trains were "rammed" with people eager to get back to their office desk.
With reduced timetables operating on most train companies into London, it's little surprise there were some busy trains and to be fair my tube home to East London was pretty busy but it was the first for 10 minutes just after 5.15 (and I still got a seat).
The propaganda around the "big return to the office" belies the truth for most hybrid working based on 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days at home is the new reality. Businesses, transport providers and the London economy need to recognise this is the "new normal" and adapt.
*Quietly happy with betting positions*
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436561/Boris-Johnson-lockdown-BIRTHDAY-PARTY-Downing-Street-Carrie-hosted-bash-state-room.html
I can't see how he can survive this. Perhaps some on here are weary of the endless stream of stories. But people endured such an awful lot through those lockdowns, making horrendous sacrifices, that we will never forget and we will never forgive.
https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1485682928709423107
My office is now getting calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we're not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia's "reasonable" positions.
However, if you bring people together who weren't working in the room together, with no work reason for them to so congregate, then that does seem to have been against the rules. These ~30 people were not already working together: they would have gathered. Carrie doesn't work there, so that would've broken the rules.
We get the media we deserve, as has been shown clearly during the past two years.
The bounce back has come from Boris ending Plan B restrictions and the movement back to the Tories from diehard anti lockdown, anti Covid restrictions voters
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1485568283818569728
The EU stands by Ukraine. We are firm in our resolve.
I am announcing a new financial assistance package, made of emergency loans and grants, to support Ukraine in the medium and long-term.
There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.
Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856
As an isolated incident I’d agree but this is not isolated.
It’s my party and I’ll lie if I want to.
But you still won’t agree with me that it’s not going to work, because enough back bench minds are already made up not to remove Boris over party gate and to give him more time.
Another question I have, why am I trying to help you with your betting position by explaining this, if you won’t listen? 🤔
Enough!
Lots of time/money claims relating to that time currently working their way through system
More likely is the last poll was a bit of an outlier for various reasons - sampling perhaps. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat figures were too low and the Labour and Green figures too high.
Tonight's numbers sit much closer to other polls with Labour around 39-41, the Conservatives about 33-34 and the LDs 11-12.
With so much going on, there's a lot of volatility out there - you may think 34% represents core vote for the Conservatives currently - I'm less convinced.
And this is making me really annoyed. The investigation is not there to dance to the tune of Cummings or anyone else. It's not there so he can have his vendettas against the PM or his wife or anyone else. It's not there to be held hostage to his vanity and sense of self-entitlement.
I'd be half inclined to call a halt to it and say that, in order to be fair to all concerned, she's referring the evidence collected to the police so that they can take it further as they have powers to obtain evidence and interviews she does not have.
Where there is sufficient evidence for disciplinary proceedings short of criminal action she will assist the relevant HR departments in the normal way.
It's deeply desperately sad that it was illegal to have a surprise birthday cake at work in May 2020. But it was. And they knew it.
So let's park the excuses. You cannot have the PM dictate egregious restrictions banning things like birthday cake when he does it himself. The PM either obeys the law or we have anarchy.
Look at the rules, it was against the rules.
Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.
To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.
My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.
He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
- For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street
- No real claim this was a “work event” this time either
- If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613
Ouch.
A few days later I ended up waiting for an ambulance, for three hours, in excruciating pain. Once rescued, and after a lot of disinfecting, it was a further 1.5 hour wait in the ambulance, outside an overwhelmed A&E.
A few posters don't understand how personal this is.
What a bunch of mugs we all were. May/June 2020 people didn't see friends or family, socialised by sodding Zoom. If we did go out for essential work there were no parties. Was endless propaganda produced with taxpayers money warning us. Lawbreakers fined. Meanwhile, in Number 10.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1485699776511463437
As I recall children were exempt and this is why my family could come round to meet in our garden
This also would confirm that if Boris met in the garden that evening his household and 6 others could attend within the law
I've nothing against Cummings - he seems a bit mad, but certainly has interesting ideas. He gets one vote - so do I.
A group of people on TV every evening at 5pm scared us. I can't quite recall who, but one of them had blonde messy hair and a crumpled suit.
Was all that a fecking great lie as well?
A 26-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after allegedly mowing down a knife attacker to stop a frenzied attack on a woman who died from stab wounds on a street in west London.
Could be an interesting trial if it gets that far.
We are back to bending the rules now, not in the territory of an obvious breach.
“I hope PM takes a long hard look at current situation & makes a judgement for himself…I do believe he’s somebody who…loves this country. He has to work out whether him staying in that office is the right thing for this country” https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1485701092243558403/video/1
He doesn't give a fuck about the country. He wants to be World King.
Were painters and decorators even allowed in punters houses then? We had the Miele man in to repair the washing machine and the pre-set rules from Miele were we weren't allowed in the same room as him.
This. 100x this.
I think I even made same point a week or two ago. And very worth reiterating.
Unless someone can say on here that there was a security risk there was no reason any of these people were not at home working remotely with each other on zoom and so on.
I mean - the actual Cabinet of the UK was doing exactly that.
So why did No 10 staff have to be in the office on the lash?
Are we back to:
"I'm only a cabinet minister"?
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1485700894134046728
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856
Although the fact everybody seemed to get it really quickly at the start of pandemic also suggests that perhaps they weren't super careful to begin with.
So Ukraine: A few things to consider.
Firstly a lot of people are asking whether Putin might invade Ukraine. Oddly enough this is in its own way a propaganda victory for the Kremlin. They have already annexed Crimea in contravention of the 1994 treaty in which Ukraine agreed to surrender its nuclear weapons and are plainly encouraging the ongoing conflict in the Donbass. So it's clear that Putin has already invaded we just forgot about that. The only question is whether there might be a further escalation of the current conflict.
Secondly many people seem to be blaming the tension on all sides and that it is such loose talk that could lead to war. Let's be clear about what has happened. As well as the above, we have Putin's long essay insisting that Russia and Ukraine are one people, that Ukraine isn't a real country etc, the cyber attacks, we have the extraordinary list of demands to avoid war including the scaling back of Nato and a guarantee that Ukraine would never join whilst amassing an enormous army near the border. You have to be deeply irrational in Ukraine not to be seriously worried about this. Could Putin be bluffing? Maybe but even if he is such overtly threatening behaviour is deplorable. Accusing Ukraine of fanning the flames is ludicrous.
Not that I am gung ho. The worst thing you can do is tell someone you have their back and then disappear with them feeling mistakenly confident. If you take the view that it's nothing to do with us or our national interest a la Peter Hitchens, fine. Just be honest enough to say so. But don't pretend it's a question of 'they're both as bad as each other.' I admit to a certain admiration for Mr Zelensky. I'm sure he's not perfect, politicians who have to take decisions rarely are but he seems to have resisted Trump's attempts at bribery and wants to move his country forward. I hope he gets the chance.
Second, Councils are now looking at reducing office accommodation as a way to get extra funding so it's either through the disposal of actual buildings (this getting a one-off capital receipt) or leasing them out to external organisations (a steady rental income stream). The post-Covid budget crunch is already looming and of course Councils have to pay energy costs for buildings as well.
Indeed, I'd argue for many organisations resigned to hybrid working there's a wider issue of capacity and paying to heat and light space if it is not being used.
I would say its looking pretty bleak for BJ.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1485702102244597770
Going on what was happening around the country last year and in 2020, many people would have got fined for this. No question about that.
The more I think about it, the angrier I get.
The PM owes voters an explanation. But advisors, civil servants and those with relevant evidence also owe us an obligation to co-operate fully with the investigation. That includes Cummings as well. His refusal to do so should be a bigger issue than it is. He is playing us for fools in the same way as his former boss.
And then how many other parties are there still to be revealed.
If you couldn't access medical treatment, then the risks increase substantially. So we stayed at home to save the NHS, so that it would be able to treat the people at the top who partied.
I haven’t seen it picked up elsewhere, but Cummings made explicit reference to “photographs” coming out after the Gray report in his last blogpost.