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New revelations lead to Johnson 2022 exit a 77% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2022 in General
New revelations lead to Johnson 2022 exit a 77% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

Johnson 2022 exit betting moves to 77% chance. @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/iwJnxznhKx

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited January 2022
    I wonder why Boris just didn't lay it all out there after the first leak? He must have known Cummings wouldn't stop until he'd destroyed him so he should have just admitted everything right at the outset and apologized for all the parties in one go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    "Churchillian" according to some on here
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Only Ukraine can save him now.

    What desperate times we live in.
  • Pulpstar said:

    "Churchillian" according to some on here

    Which roasters said that?

    Name and shame.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder why Boris just didn't lay it all out there after the first leak? He must have known Cummings wouldn't stop until he'd destroyed him so he should have just admitted everything right out the outset and apologized for all the parties in one go.

    Because

    1) Boris doesn't think beyond the next 5 minutes
    2) Boris can usually talk his way out of things. The issue Boris has is that everyone knows his tricks so he's been carefully navigated into a corner with no means of escape.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    I presume the birthday bash was actually a health and safety workshop to ensure everybody was washing their hands for long enough.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Aces up the sleeve.

    They need to be aces now, or else he’s seen maximum danger off.

    Although it’s great to have Norman on Active duty again, 😃I thought we all agreed Parties can’t break this trench warfare stalemate on the back benches. It’s a weapon that has run its course and failed to make the breakthrough. Even pictures or video prove nothing in minds where it’s already proved. Boris has too many supporters believing him strong on policy and delivery, they can’t be further moved by party revelations.

    No Norman, it needs something new! What else you got?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder why Boris just didn't lay it all out there after the first leak? He must have known Cummings wouldn't stop until he'd destroyed him so he should have just admitted everything right at the outset and apologized for all the parties in one go.

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    52m
    This is a classic example of the implications of Boris's failure to come clean at the start of this whole affair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    My wife has baked a cake by mistake.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,316
    edited January 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    "Churchillian" according to some on here

    Which roasters said that?

    Name and shame.
    It was said sarcastically. Calm down


    77% is over the top. More like 50/50

    Kicking out a prime minister who has just delivered an historic majority is some seriously mad shit. But so are the endless accusations, most of which appear to be true…

    Either way a very unlikely thing must happen. A prime minister is ejected by his own party two years after an incredible, historic victory, when he doesn’t have to face the voters for a long time, OR a prime minister survives the most well executed series of hugely damaging leaks in recent political memory
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Explains everything about, what at the time seemed the rather bizarre non sacking of Cummings.
    All makes sense now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    Make Josephine Prime Minister. She's nearly 9 now, and way more grown up than Boris Johnson.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    So Boris wandered into a birthday party in his flat, wondered into a work party in his garden…

    Bit of a theme emerging here. And quite clear on Twitter some of the BoJo loyalists are discrediting the birthday claim in the hope it doesn’t stick.

    They are pathetic.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder why Boris just didn't lay it all out there after the first leak? He must have known Cummings wouldn't stop until he'd destroyed him so he should have just admitted everything right at the outset and apologized for all the parties in one go.

    Unless there's something much worse, more explosive, absolutely terminal, that still hasn't been exposed and these mini revelations are just a way to keep things ticking over and embarrass more Boris supporters later?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2022
    Carrie Johnson surprised Boris with a birthday cake briefly, a few colleagues gathered and sent best wishes and then back to work.

    Sounds like most office birthdays and No 10 was still legally a workplace at the time.

    Hardly a big party. Non story
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    DavidL said:

    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.

    If you are silly enough to make silly things the law, then you had better abide by the law, and by the letter of the law they were allowed to spend all day together in a windowless room coughing in each other's faces, provided they were doing essential work, but not for any other reason - so as soon as the cake enters the room and they stop working they break their own silly laws.
  • My wife has baked a cake by mistake.

    Had anyone told her the rules though? The bumbling blonde guy on tele was quite confusing with all the mixing of laws and guidance.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    HYUFD said:

    Sounds like most office birthdays and No 10 was still legally a workplace at the time.

    Hardly a big party. Non story

    The questions is whether it sounds like most office birthdays were supposed to be during lockdown 1. If I went on the government website at the time, do you think this would have been in the "yes this is an appropriate situation" guidance?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Evening all :)

    Out and about today - the man who cuts my hair, hitherto a staunch adherent of Boris Johnson, almost apoplectic in his fury (not helpful when holding scissors I thought). Some choice epithets which he felt able to express with the two women both under the dryer. "I don't trust any of them" - possibly not a wholly unique stance currently.

    On way back into London, I am regaled by the Evening Back to the Desk or Standard as it used to be called. Reading it as I walked through an almost-deserted Bank Station just before 5, I was told trains were "rammed" with people eager to get back to their office desk.

    With reduced timetables operating on most train companies into London, it's little surprise there were some busy trains and to be fair my tube home to East London was pretty busy but it was the first for 10 minutes just after 5.15 (and I still got a seat).

    The propaganda around the "big return to the office" belies the truth for most hybrid working based on 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days at home is the new reality. Businesses, transport providers and the London economy need to recognise this is the "new normal" and adapt.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Aces up the sleeve.

    They need to be aces now, or else he’s seen maximum danger off.

    Although it’s great to have Norman on Active duty again, 😃I thought we all agreed Parties can’t break this trench warfare stalemate on the back benches. It’s a weapon that has run its course and failed to make the breakthrough. Even pictures or video prove nothing in minds where it’s already proved. Boris has too many supporters believing him strong on policy and delivery, they can’t be further moved by party revelations.

    No Norman, it needs something new! What else you got?

    Nobody ever agreed that. Gray has yet to report. @TSE says he already knows of at least 4 still-to-come revelations, and you don't want to bet against him on internal tory party matters. The message behind this leak this evening, to Gray and to tory mps, is: think what a twat you'll look if you exonerate/VOC him and then more of this stuff comes out.

    *Quietly happy with betting positions*
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    The Daily Mail back at their most vicious anti-Johnson vitriolic this evening:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436561/Boris-Johnson-lockdown-BIRTHDAY-PARTY-Downing-Street-Carrie-hosted-bash-state-room.html


    I can't see how he can survive this. Perhaps some on here are weary of the endless stream of stories. But people endured such an awful lot through those lockdowns, making horrendous sacrifices, that we will never forget and we will never forgive.
  • #BeLikeJosephine


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Congressman Tom Malinowski.

    https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1485682928709423107
    My office is now getting calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we're not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia's "reasonable" positions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    After a day of stop and search and foot chases, Newham’s NTT have been called to clear a house party in Central Park Road. This family thought law relating to social distancing shouldn’t apply to 18th birthday parties. 25 guests moved on. https://twitter.com/MPSNewham/status/1246521684246638599/photo/1
  • TresTres Posts: 2,165
    'nobody told me it was my birthday'
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Out and about today - the man who cuts my hair, hitherto a staunch adherent of Boris Johnson, almost apoplectic in his fury (not helpful when holding scissors I thought). Some choice epithets which he felt able to express with the two women both under the dryer. "I don't trust any of them" - possibly not a wholly unique stance currently.

    On way back into London, I am regaled by the Evening Back to the Desk or Standard as it used to be called. Reading it as I walked through an almost-deserted Bank Station just before 5, I was told trains were "rammed" with people eager to get back to their office desk.

    With reduced timetables operating on most train companies into London, it's little surprise there were some busy trains and to be fair my tube home to East London was pretty busy but it was the first for 10 minutes just after 5.15 (and I still got a seat).

    The propaganda around the "big return to the office" belies the truth for most hybrid working based on 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days at home is the new reality. Businesses, transport providers and the London economy need to recognise this is the "new normal" and adapt.

    The only good thing to have come from the pandemic is I've realised I can cut my own hair with the clippers, which is cheaper, better and involves much less small talk with people who have diametrically opposite political views whilst wielding sharp implements.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,175

    DavidL said:

    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.

    If you are silly enough to make silly things the law, then you had better abide by the law, and by the letter of the law they were allowed to spend all day together in a windowless room coughing in each other's faces, provided they were doing essential work, but not for any other reason - so as soon as the cake enters the room and they stop working they break their own silly laws.
    A group of people working together stopping briefly to eat some cake and then resuming work does not, AFAICT, run foul of the restrictions in place.

    However, if you bring people together who weren't working in the room together, with no work reason for them to so congregate, then that does seem to have been against the rules. These ~30 people were not already working together: they would have gathered. Carrie doesn't work there, so that would've broken the rules.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Nigelb said:

    Congressman Tom Malinowski.

    https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1485682928709423107
    My office is now getting calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we're not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia's "reasonable" positions.

    What better way to own the libs than to side with Russia?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So, on the day when a government minister resigns, over the loss of several billion of emergency funds to fraud, all the Lobby hacks care about is that the PM’s wife bought him a cake on his birthday.

    We get the media we deserve, as has been shown clearly during the past two years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    The Daily Mail back at their most vicious anti-Johnson vitriolic this evening:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436561/Boris-Johnson-lockdown-BIRTHDAY-PARTY-Downing-Street-Carrie-hosted-bash-state-room.html


    I can't see how he can survive this. Perhaps some on here are weary of the endless stream of stories. But people endured such an awful lot through those lockdowns, making horrendous sacrifices, that we will never forget and we will never forgive.

    The Tories are back up to 34% tonight, still 7% behind but in hung parliament territory again and almost all of that 34% will not care less about this.

    The bounce back has come from Boris ending Plan B restrictions and the movement back to the Tories from diehard anti lockdown, anti Covid restrictions voters
  • HYUFD said:

    Carrie Johnson surprised Boris with a birthday cake briefly, a few colleagues gathered and sent best wishes and then back to work.

    Sounds like most office birthdays and No 10 was still legally a workplace at the time.

    Hardly a big party. Non story

    :lol:
    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Ursula vdL

    https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1485568283818569728
    The EU stands by Ukraine. We are firm in our resolve.
    I am announcing a new financial assistance package, made of emergency loans and grants, to support Ukraine in the medium and long-term.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day when a government minister resigns, over the loss of several billion of emergency funds to fraud, all the Lobby hacks care about is that the PM’s wife bought him a cake on his birthday.

    We get the media we deserve, as has been shown clearly during the past two years.

    Boris could have resigned weeks ago mate
  • PJHPJH Posts: 443
    Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    And singing Happy Birthday wasn't allowed either - I don't think it was actually ever allowed until July 2021, except in concert performances etc
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Out and about today - the man who cuts my hair, hitherto a staunch adherent of Boris Johnson, almost apoplectic in his fury (not helpful when holding scissors I thought). Some choice epithets which he felt able to express with the two women both under the dryer. "I don't trust any of them" - possibly not a wholly unique stance currently.

    On way back into London, I am regaled by the Evening Back to the Desk or Standard as it used to be called. Reading it as I walked through an almost-deserted Bank Station just before 5, I was told trains were "rammed" with people eager to get back to their office desk.

    With reduced timetables operating on most train companies into London, it's little surprise there were some busy trains and to be fair my tube home to East London was pretty busy but it was the first for 10 minutes just after 5.15 (and I still got a seat).

    The propaganda around the "big return to the office" belies the truth for most hybrid working based on 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days at home is the new reality. Businesses, transport providers and the London economy need to recognise this is the "new normal" and adapt.

    Trouble is for the tube and many other service businesses, hybrid WFH/office by their customers means all the operating expenses for half the revenue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Ursula vdL

    https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1485568283818569728
    The EU stands by Ukraine. We are firm in our resolve.
    I am announcing a new financial assistance package, made of emergency loans and grants, to support Ukraine in the medium and long-term.

    Mr Putin will be very happy when he takes over to learn of all this financing....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856
  • Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    I am not sure about family gatherings and the number of families that could gather but as far as I remember I could meet my family in the garden
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    HYUFD said:

    Carrie Johnson surprised Boris with a birthday cake briefly, a few colleagues gathered and sent best wishes and then back to work.

    Sounds like most office birthdays and No 10 was still legally a workplace at the time.

    Hardly a big party. Non story

    It’s the optics of it and the fact it is one thing after another.

    As an isolated incident I’d agree but this is not isolated.

    It’s my party and I’ll lie if I want to.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Construction was definitely always allowed. My brother-in-law was managing a project in London at the time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
    We know why now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,316
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
    Matt Chorley is showing signs of Boris Derangement Syndrome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
    Matt Chorley is showing signs of Boris Derangement Syndrome
    They have an open goal day after day, and yet they can't help but lie with glaringly obvious BS.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    IshmaelZ said:

    Aces up the sleeve.

    They need to be aces now, or else he’s seen maximum danger off.

    Although it’s great to have Norman on Active duty again, 😃I thought we all agreed Parties can’t break this trench warfare stalemate on the back benches. It’s a weapon that has run its course and failed to make the breakthrough. Even pictures or video prove nothing in minds where it’s already proved. Boris has too many supporters believing him strong on policy and delivery, they can’t be further moved by party revelations.

    No Norman, it needs something new! What else you got?

    Nobody ever agreed that. Gray has yet to report. @TSE says he already knows of at least 4 still-to-come revelations, and you don't want to bet against him on internal tory party matters. The message behind this leak this evening, to Gray and to tory mps, is: think what a twat you'll look if you exonerate/VOC him and then more of this stuff comes out.

    *Quietly happy with betting positions*
    I agree with you, what Norman is doing is pressuring both Sue and back bench MPs just as you said.

    But you still won’t agree with me that it’s not going to work, because enough back bench minds are already made up not to remove Boris over party gate and to give him more time.

    Another question I have, why am I trying to help you with your betting position by explaining this, if you won’t listen? 🤔

    Enough!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
    Matt Chorley is showing signs of Boris Derangement Syndrome
    At one point you were only allowed to carry out essential work in people's homes. That doesn't include decorating.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Construction was definitely always allowed. My brother-in-law was managing a project in London at the time.
    Not quite true. Many sites closed for a few weeks after lockdown was first announced.

    Lots of time/money claims relating to that time currently working their way through system
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:


    The Tories are back up to 34% tonight, still 7% behind but in hung parliament territory again and almost all of that 34% will not care less about this.

    The bounce back has come from Boris ending Plan B restrictions and the movement back to the Tories from diehard anti lockdown, anti Covid restrictions voters

    I know you enjoy making dogmatic assumptions but there's a lot of movement in that poll and I don't think your explanation is correct.

    More likely is the last poll was a bit of an outlier for various reasons - sampling perhaps. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat figures were too low and the Labour and Green figures too high.

    Tonight's numbers sit much closer to other polls with Labour around 39-41, the Conservatives about 33-34 and the LDs 11-12.

    With so much going on, there's a lot of volatility out there - you may think 34% represents core vote for the Conservatives currently - I'm less convinced.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Nigelb said:

    Congressman Tom Malinowski.

    https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1485682928709423107
    My office is now getting calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we're not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia's "reasonable" positions.

    Let me guess, Hunter Biden and Burisma?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    DavidL said:

    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.

    Yes it is ridiculous. But the man we must assume is behind it is refusing to be interviewed and is playing his own games with the investigation and with us.

    And this is making me really annoyed. The investigation is not there to dance to the tune of Cummings or anyone else. It's not there so he can have his vendettas against the PM or his wife or anyone else. It's not there to be held hostage to his vanity and sense of self-entitlement.

    I'd be half inclined to call a halt to it and say that, in order to be fair to all concerned, she's referring the evidence collected to the police so that they can take it further as they have powers to obtain evidence and interviews she does not have.

    Where there is sufficient evidence for disciplinary proceedings short of criminal action she will assist the relevant HR departments in the normal way.
  • Sandpit said:

    So, on the day when a government minister resigns, over the loss of several billion of emergency funds to fraud, all the Lobby hacks care about is that the PM’s wife bought him a cake on his birthday.

    We get the media we deserve, as has been shown clearly during the past two years.

    Folk who didn't vote for him get the PM you lot deserve.
  • Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Construction was definitely always allowed. My brother-in-law was managing a project in London at the time.
    Not quite true. Many sites closed for a few weeks after lockdown was first announced.

    Lots of time/money claims relating to that time currently working their way through system
    Wasn't that by choice rather than government diktat, though?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Aces up the sleeve.

    They need to be aces now, or else he’s seen maximum danger off.

    Although it’s great to have Norman on Active duty again, 😃I thought we all agreed Parties can’t break this trench warfare stalemate on the back benches. It’s a weapon that has run its course and failed to make the breakthrough. Even pictures or video prove nothing in minds where it’s already proved. Boris has too many supporters believing him strong on policy and delivery, they can’t be further moved by party revelations.

    No Norman, it needs something new! What else you got?

    Nobody ever agreed that. Gray has yet to report. @TSE says he already knows of at least 4 still-to-come revelations, and you don't want to bet against him on internal tory party matters. The message behind this leak this evening, to Gray and to tory mps, is: think what a twat you'll look if you exonerate/VOC him and then more of this stuff comes out.

    *Quietly happy with betting positions*
    I agree with you, what Norman is doing is pressuring both Sue and back bench MPs just as you said.

    But you still won’t agree with me that it’s not going to work, because enough back bench minds are already made up not to remove Boris over party gate and to give him more time.

    Another question I have, why am I trying to help you with your betting position by explaining this, if you won’t listen? 🤔

    Enough!
    You are helping me immeasurably with my betting position. It is you and people like you who permit me to bet at odds against on outcomes which would be heavily odds on if everyone had their rights. I am grateful.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    eek said:

    Tim (formerly of this Parish) sums it up perfectly here


    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
    ·
    21s
    The only time he didn't have a party was when he was on a ventilator


    Ouch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591

    DavidL said:

    Oh FFS. I suppose he can genuinely say that he did not know about this party because it was a surprise. And, in the real world you have 30 people working in the cabinet room for an hour or two and then his wife brings in a cake. I am struggling to see the risk here. But the drip, drip, drip is just making him look ridiculous.

    If you are silly enough to make silly things the law, then you had better abide by the law, and by the letter of the law they were allowed to spend all day together in a windowless room coughing in each other's faces, provided they were doing essential work, but not for any other reason - so as soon as the cake enters the room and they stop working they break their own silly laws.
    A group of people working together stopping briefly to eat some cake and then resuming work does not, AFAICT, run foul of the restrictions in place.

    However, if you bring people together who weren't working in the room together, with no work reason for them to so congregate, then that does seem to have been against the rules. These ~30 people were not already working together: they would have gathered. Carrie doesn't work there, so that would've broken the rules.
    Plus wallpaper woman.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    One more thing about these revelations, it seems No 10 staff didn't try very hard at all to actually err "work from home"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    eek said:

    Tim (formerly of this Parish) sums it up perfectly here


    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
    ·
    21s
    The only time he didn't have a party was when he was on a ventilator

    That line could make an appearance at PMQs, if BoZo is still there by then...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    Why was Lulu there? Because they were taking the fucking piss.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    Looks like the "we have the swipe card entry data" has had an effect.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Iain is a (former) BoZo fanboi...

    What a bunch of mugs we all were. May/June 2020 people didn't see friends or family, socialised by sodding Zoom. If we did go out for essential work there were no parties. Was endless propaganda produced with taxpayers money warning us. Lawbreakers fined. Meanwhile, in Number 10.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1485699776511463437
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day when a government minister resigns, over the loss of several billion of emergency funds to fraud, all the Lobby hacks care about is that the PM’s wife bought him a cake on his birthday.

    We get the media we deserve, as has been shown clearly during the past two years.

    Feeble point, and I do mean feeble, because the party story has a bearing on the PM possibly resigning. And what is all this shit about his wife buying him a cake? By what possible stretch does that accurately encapsulate the complaint that this was a party?
  • Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
    Checked and the rule at the time stated that you cannot meet in groups of more than 6 excluding those in your household or bubble

    As I recall children were exempt and this is why my family could come round to meet in our garden

    This also would confirm that if Boris met in the garden that evening his household and 6 others could attend within the law
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Whatever the fate of Boris in all this I find myself quite uncomfortable with Cummings being able to pursue a personal agenda facilitated by the press. Not at all sure what one can do about that, but the media certainly should be considering whether they're acting wisely in giving him the platform.

    I've nothing against Cummings - he seems a bit mad, but certainly has interesting ideas. He gets one vote - so do I.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Out and about today - the man who cuts my hair, hitherto a staunch adherent of Boris Johnson, almost apoplectic in his fury (not helpful when holding scissors I thought). Some choice epithets which he felt able to express with the two women both under the dryer. "I don't trust any of them" - possibly not a wholly unique stance currently.

    On way back into London, I am regaled by the Evening Back to the Desk or Standard as it used to be called. Reading it as I walked through an almost-deserted Bank Station just before 5, I was told trains were "rammed" with people eager to get back to their office desk.

    With reduced timetables operating on most train companies into London, it's little surprise there were some busy trains and to be fair my tube home to East London was pretty busy but it was the first for 10 minutes just after 5.15 (and I still got a seat).

    The propaganda around the "big return to the office" belies the truth for most hybrid working based on 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days at home is the new reality. Businesses, transport providers and the London economy need to recognise this is the "new normal" and adapt.

    I am contracting for a Council. A notice came around to the effect that, despite plan B etc, they are keeping the current remote working arrangements for the foreseeable future in the interests of health.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pulpstar said:

    One more thing about these revelations, it seems No 10 staff didn't try very hard at all to actually err "work from home"

    I actually have zero problem with staff at the heart of government being just plain exempt from that rule, but since they weren't it looks bad, and the at best slapdash approach to rule adherence (and at worst downright ignoring it) transforms petty happenings into political trouble.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
    The thing I don't understand is that for many of us (most?) we stuck to the rules because we were scared. Without the rules there would be disaster - either personal or across society.

    A group of people on TV every evening at 5pm scared us. I can't quite recall who, but one of them had blonde messy hair and a crumpled suit.

    Was all that a fecking great lie as well?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10435265/Woman-stabbed-death-man-killed-hit-car.html

    A 26-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after allegedly mowing down a knife attacker to stop a frenzied attack on a woman who died from stab wounds on a street in west London.

    Could be an interesting trial if it gets that far.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    The same question was asked at the start with regard to the garden work-event photo. If they were working, Carrie should not have been there; if it was a family sitting in their own garden, Cummings should not have been there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Tim (formerly of this Parish) sums it up perfectly here


    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
    ·
    21s
    The only time he didn't have a party was when he was on a ventilator

    That line could make an appearance at PMQs, if BoZo is still there by then...
    Might engender sympathy by reminding of his illness.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    Perhaps the interior designer was 'working' at the flat, BoJo and Carrie were the clients.

    We are back to bending the rules now, not in the territory of an obvious breach.
  • Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
    The thing I don't understand is that for many of us (most?) we stuck to the rules because we were scared. Without the rules there would be disaster - either personal or across society.

    A group of people on TV every evening at 5pm scared us. I can't quite recall who, but one of them had blonde messy hair and a crumpled suit.

    Was all that a fecking great lie as well?
    At that particular time most of Number 10 had Covid-19 and there was a belief that once you had Covid-19 and survived it made you immortal (or at least safe from reinfection.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    edited January 2022
    Sue Gray should launch her report at a drinks reception with cheese, biscuits and cake.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two things:

    There is something just brilliant that during the height of the pandemic she was trailing round after him with colour swatches for the cushion on the whicker sex swing.

    Everyone I know who worked in construction/home decoration was unable to work?


    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1485696378877657091
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856

    Well that's bullshit about construction not being able to work, they were explicitly essential workers from day dot, and a lot of the media got very angry about it at the time.
    Matt Chorley is showing signs of Boris Derangement Syndrome
    When he’s turned out of number 10 he’ll still be living, rent free, in so many peoples heads and will be for many years to come.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    .@SayeedaWarsi on whether PM should resign:

    “I hope PM takes a long hard look at current situation & makes a judgement for himself…I do believe he’s somebody who…loves this country. He has to work out whether him staying in that office is the right thing for this country”
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1485701092243558403/video/1

    He doesn't give a fuck about the country. He wants to be World King.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    I am not sure about family gatherings and the number of families that could gather but as far as I remember I could meet my family in the garden
    Your decorator, and your work colleagues weren't allowed in your Cabinet Room.

    Were painters and decorators even allowed in punters houses then? We had the Miele man in to repair the washing machine and the pre-set rules from Miele were we weren't allowed in the same room as him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One more thing about these revelations, it seems No 10 staff didn't try very hard at all to actually err "work from home"

    I actually have zero problem with staff at the heart of government being just plain exempt from that rule, but since they weren't it looks bad, and the at best slapdash approach to rule adherence (and at worst downright ignoring it) transforms petty happenings into political trouble.
    "One more thing about these revelations, it seems No 10 staff didn't try very hard at all to actually err "work from home" "

    This. 100x this.

    I think I even made same point a week or two ago. And very worth reiterating.

    Unless someone can say on here that there was a security risk there was no reason any of these people were not at home working remotely with each other on zoom and so on.

    I mean - the actual Cabinet of the UK was doing exactly that.

    So why did No 10 staff have to be in the office on the lash?

    Are we back to:

    "I'm only a cabinet minister"?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    darkage said:

    Perhaps the interior designer was 'working' at the flat, BoJo and Carrie were the clients.

    We are back to bending the rules now, not in the territory of an obvious breach.

    "I was working in the upstairs flat when, completely uninvited, I decided to walk down 3 flights of stairs into the Cabinet Room - the most secure room in the country - in order to interrupt the PM in whatever he was doing so that we could urgently discuss interior design."
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1485700894134046728
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1485691562055118856
  • BBC Scotland doing a thing on the Brewdog people. They appear to be a right pair of wankers, if it were in doubt.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    Perhaps the interior designer was 'working' at the flat, BoJo and Carrie were the clients.

    We are back to bending the rules now, not in the territory of an obvious breach.
    Fairly sure interior designers didn't come under the category of 'essential workers'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
    The thing I don't understand is that for many of us (most?) we stuck to the rules because we were scared. Without the rules there would be disaster - either personal or across society.

    A group of people on TV every evening at 5pm scared us. I can't quite recall who, but one of them had blonde messy hair and a crumpled suit.

    Was all that a fecking great lie as well?
    At that particular time most of Number 10 had Covid-19 and there was a belief that once you had Covid-19 and survived it made you immortal (or at least safe from reinfection.)
    Not excusing the behaviour, but i wonder how much of this played into all the rule bending and breaking. No fear that anything they were doing would personally endanger them from a health perspective.

    Although the fact everybody seemed to get it really quickly at the start of pandemic also suggests that perhaps they weren't super careful to begin with.
  • Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    I am not sure about family gatherings and the number of families that could gather but as far as I remember I could meet my family in the garden
    Your decorator, and your work colleagues weren't allowed in your Cabinet Room.

    Were painters and decorators even allowed in punters houses then? We had the Miele man in to repair the washing machine and the pre-set rules from Miele were we weren't allowed in the same room as him.
    I was referring to the allegation of a party in the flat that evening which Downing Street has denied saying it was held in the garden under the rule of 6
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    darkage said:


    I am contracting for a Council. A notice came around to the effect that, despite plan B etc, they are keeping the current remote working arrangements for the foreseeable future in the interests of health.

    There's two aspects to this - first, many Councils have reduced the capacity inside their buildings due to social distancing and can accommodate only 40-50% maximum of staff (and even at those numbers many offices remain almost empty and it's primarily emergency services or duty teams who are occupying the desks).

    Second, Councils are now looking at reducing office accommodation as a way to get extra funding so it's either through the disposal of actual buildings (this getting a one-off capital receipt) or leasing them out to external organisations (a steady rental income stream). The post-Covid budget crunch is already looming and of course Councils have to pay energy costs for buildings as well.

    Indeed, I'd argue for many organisations resigned to hybrid working there's a wider issue of capacity and paying to heat and light space if it is not being used.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,395
    Look at this from the POV of operatives in the "Save Big Dog" campaign who have been, presumably, ringing round wavering MPs trying to dissuade them from submitting to the 1922. Does the news of the birthday party help or hinder? Are they feeling confident?

    I would say its looking pretty bleak for BJ.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    BBC Scotland doing a thing on the Brewdog people. They appear to be a right pair of wankers, if it were in doubt.

    Are they banging on about James Watt’s chair ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Source who was at Johnson birthday event in 2020 says there was gathering of up to 30 people of around half an hour in Cabinet room that day, as per @PaulBrandITV story tonight - Carrie Johnson brought a cake, and the designer Lulu Lytle who was in No 10 that day
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1485702102244597770
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022
    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Some interesting points tonight:

    - For first time No 10 not denying there was a party inside Downing Street

    - No real claim this was a “work event” this time either

    - If work event, why was PM’s wife and interior designer there anyway?


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485698569894084613

    Perhaps the interior designer was 'working' at the flat, BoJo and Carrie were the clients.

    We are back to bending the rules now, not in the territory of an obvious breach.
    30 people not usually in one room together, a cake and party event, also including a group not usually in the building ?

    Going on what was happening around the country last year and in 2020, many people would have got fined for this. No question about that.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Look at this from the POV of operatives in the "Save Big Dog" campaign who have been, presumably, ringing round wavering MPs trying to dissuade them from submitting to the 1922. Does the news of the birthday party help or hinder? Are they feeling confident?

    I would say its looking pretty bleak for BJ.

    I wonder how many people ringing round said there were other parties waiting to come out.

    And then how many other parties are there still to be revealed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    Pulpstar said:

    My birthday is the day after Boris' and parties definitely weren't allowed in June 2020

    FPT.

    Look at the rules, it was against the rules.

    Otherwise the rest of the country could have set up their own limited companies, hire their mates, and use 'work' events to hold parties, that too would have been against the law.

    To use another principle, they had to be wholly, exclusively, and necessarily for work reasons.

    My youngest's birthday falls in the middle of June, so I was fairly aware of what was permissible in June 2020 for birthday parties.

    He wanted his mates round, he couldn't.
    The thing I don't understand is that for many of us (most?) we stuck to the rules because we were scared. Without the rules there would be disaster - either personal or across society.

    A group of people on TV every evening at 5pm scared us. I can't quite recall who, but one of them had blonde messy hair and a crumpled suit.

    Was all that a fecking great lie as well?
    Unless you were really quite old, or had some other risk factor, the danger posed by Covid-19 was always quite modest, provided that you could access medical treatment and so we are back to a Prisoner's Dilemma situation where the winning move is to have everyone else stay at home, reducing transmission and demand for health care, while you did whatever the hell you want, safe in the knowledge that there will be an ICU bed for you if you need it.

    If you couldn't access medical treatment, then the risks increase substantially. So we stayed at home to save the NHS, so that it would be able to treat the people at the top who partied.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Struggling to get worked up by the latest party, though laughing at the Lulu Lytle appearance.

    I haven’t seen it picked up elsewhere, but Cummings made explicit reference to “photographs” coming out after the Gray report in his last blogpost.
This discussion has been closed.