A taster of the debate on Russia-Ukraine in Germany: Matthias Platzeck, former Brandenburg state premier and chair of the German-Russian Forum, says on German TV that Russia and Germany "have to become more reliant on each other ... to make the peace more secure".
I am not entirely sure that worked in 1914. But making your country so dependent upon the whims of a violent despot was a bizarre choice for Merkel, nearly as stupid as not allowing Cameron a brake on FoM.
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
I became a Tory member about 25 years ago. I campaigned, and even stood for the local council, because I saw them as a party of pragmatic Government (with whom I often disagreed).
At the time the Labour Party represented a party of Politics (with whom I often agreed in principle, but disliked in practice).
Over that time, in my view the Tories (nationally) have become a narrow, politically-orientated cabal of the lazy, self-interested, and culturally moribund little-Englanders, with no appetite for governance, just the trappings of power. They left me 10 years ago, and the situation now is that I am unlikely ever to vote for them again.
I enjoy reading HYUFD's takes, and more power to the HYUFD elbow, but this post just about sums up that disillusionment for me.
Rishi is only 41, he has the luxury of time to become Conservative leader & PM - which he might need if the trigger isn't pulled on Boris.
For how many of us, myself included, would Rishi (born May 1980) become the first PM younger than themselves?
He is younger than my three children
David Cameron was the first PM younger than me, but only by a year
Me too, but by 4. Cameron would have benefitted from the wisdom inspired by age and experience, although by his lobbying activities last year, perhaps I might be mistaken.
To paraphrase slightly: Boris didn't say in his manifesto that he was going to put his mistress in number 10 and breed like rabbits
Honestly, were I there though, I'd be tempted by UKIP, thinking one lone out of control MP can do less damage than one lone out-of-control PM, and that it would be a fair swap.
Politics has determined that, respect notwithstanding, Southend West ought to be an important milestone in getting Boris done. The fact it probably won't be should be a signal to all main parties that standing aside out of respect should not happen again. And I say that as someone who was initially supportive of the respect paid in this instance.
On present polling the Tories would be under 50% in Southend West. Not impossible UKIP could win it on a low turnout, I will be going down on Sunday to help
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
I'd like to hear of other sightings before we draw conclusions - but there should be enough of us PBScots over a wide enough area with eg @RochdalePioneers@Farooq@Eabhal@malcolmg and @DavidL for instance to report back to confirm if there really is a change of approach. This is of interest well beyond individual affiliation.
Only political communication I have received recently was a new year leaflet from my SNP MP.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
Did someone above suggest this was "blowing over"?
It truly isn't. The Tory rebels efforts even have a project name. And whilst I remember that photo of John Redwood and his rebels, remember that the embarrassing collection of assorted lunatics wazzocks and incompetents is the *Prime Minister*'s team, not the usurper(s).
Cummings is the Poker player with 17 packs-worth of aces up his sleeve.
That was me. It’s blowing over because the mere fact it’s Cummings will unify the Tory Party behind his target. Much as I would like the FLSOJ to be defenestrated it ain’t gonna happen. In two weeks this will be essentially over.
I don't expect it will happen yet. The sense of disbelief amongst some of the MPs is almost comedic - "this can't be happening" is a strong instinct even as the obvious conclusion hones into view.
They may hate Cummings. But it isn't Dom who is outing all this - its the press. He may well be the source, but MPs can hardly ignore all the newspapers being full of pictures of a drunk BJ taking a crap on the Downing Street lawn during a "work meeting" just because they don't like Cummings.
Had all of this been Dom talking with no evidence then I would absolutely agree with you. But it isn't. They likely won't go for him until after the demolition in May, but it will happen. No politician can survive this onslaught.
He’ll still be in charge at the next election. People in this country have the attention span of a gnat
When is the optimum time to have a leader change? Maybe 8-12 months before the GE. Enough time to get your mug on TV regularly but not so much that you can't blame your predecessor for everything.
May this year feels way to early. Nobody normal gives a fuck about local elections. It's all fat old white blokes staring at potholes in free newspapers.
As I've continually said no Tory PM is going to want an election prior to the new boundaries which mean you don't want an election until October / November 2023.
While 8-12 months is probably ideal I don't think that's an option. Now if Boris goes in August (full postal vote after removing Boris in May) then you have 15-17 months which although not ideal is better than leaving it to May 2024 with the added risk of events then damaging you.
Now the downside of an October 2023 election is that you are going to have to have all seats lined up ready to go by September 2023 which may give a hint to other parties that the PM is going to go to the polls early. It also means that a lot of MPs won't have much of an incumbency advantage because a lot of the constituents won't have known them before.
Do we really think a new Tory leader will go to the polls early?
I think we're almost certainly looking at a May 2024 election now, unless the FTPA is repealed and they can extend it for another six months or so.
An early election worked for Johnson, because he could tell the voters it was necessary to Get Brexit Done. It didn't work for May in part because the reason for the election was transparently her personal political advantage.
It looks like we're in a hanging on to the bitter end situation.
The Conservatives won’t want an election before the boundary changes go through, as they’re two decades out of date and worth at least half a dozen seats.
(It would be really interesting to see some up-to-date demographic data, to see how much movement around there has actually been, as opposed to what newspapers and estate agents say has been happening).
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
In that case, why not let Scotland go?
No, I still believe we are stronger as one UK.
However as I said before my preferred model for Scotland is Quebec. Give Scotland full devomax for virtually all domestic policy and most tax and just have Westminster for defence and foreign policy and major tax changes.
Either that or scrap the devolved parliaments and restore the Union as was, no in between
Not party policy, though, either of those.
If and when the party goes back into opposition my bet is one of them will be.
Either devomax for Holyrood with Westminster becoming an English parliament for English domestic policy (Labour would give Holyrood devomax anyway) and a UK parliament for foreign affairs and major tax or restore the Union as was
So as it stands you are advocating a non-Tory policy. Another thing that puts you outside the Tory party. Plus you didn't describe to me what the Tory Base looks like.
Just as well the government is about to scrap Plan B and virtually all remaining Covid rules anyway then
The briefing is that they won't be dropping Plan B at all – indeed every paper has carried the news that masking will stay. Now that might change, but that's what's being briefed.
If there is only 1 rule left, ie masks in shops and public transport, if a refuse decide not to comply who cares given most of us have been vaccinated and boosted. It just is a courtesy to help reduce the spread of cases.
You can even have a rave for 10, 000 people completely legally by February without even needing a vaxport, so who cares if people want to have a huge boozy party in their garden or rave in their basement, it will all be completely legal!
I know I'm fighting a losing battle here, but I have to try: As long as compulsory masks - which were part of Plan B - remain in place, Plan B has not been "scrapped".
Plan B was essentially 3 things. Vaxports, masks and advice to wfh. Advice is largely irrelevant from a legal and political point of view, companies will have done what is best for them. So if vaxports go, but masks stay, half of plan B is scrapped and half remains.
It's quite good that the British Rail double arrow continued in use on tickets and to denote stations all the way through the privatised era, and is now going to be the logo of GBR. 57 years and counting.
Anything is better than the ridiculous franchising system that embarrassed this nation for so many years, as a bunch of chiselling, pettifogging all-brand-no-bollocks companies rinsed the taxpayer while blaming each other for their manifold failings.
One of the few good moves by this government, bringing back a unified national system.
Yet this 'ridiculous franchising system' saw railways that were more popular than ever, with passenger numbers having more than doubled in 25 years (pre-pandemic), and railways that were far safer than ever before. A railway system that was expanding, rather than decreasing as it did under BR.
You know full well that that was at a massive increase in taxpayer subsidy and ticket pricing. Read Christian Wolmar. In any case, I have work to do so don't have time to argue with you on this again.
The simple truth is that the public wants one arse to kick – that of the government – and most people will celebrate the end of franchising, which was a blame game with the long-suffering travelling public caught in the permanent crossfire.
Goodbye, and good bloody riddance.
The biggest issue the the whole franchise system has been this - the true costs of it are incredibly hard to disentangle. I used to car-share with a colleague, pretty regular, so I did a week, he did a week. We didn't charge each other, but in theory I could have charged him 25 quid a week and he the same, with the same net result. A lot of the rail business looked a bit like this - government putting money in that was then paid back, but the government could say how much they had 'subsidised' the rail network...
I have no issue with tax being used to provide public transport, but it should be clear what is being done. Its also true that BR was in a shocking state by the eighties, and massively needed an injection of cash for new motive power and rolling stock.
Ticketing and timetabling also became very fragmented - no joke in the pre internet era. Mrs C and I were doing quite a bit of travelling , usually needing a change of train, when privatization came. The immediate and very noticeable effect was a marked increase in journey times, simply because the different companies no longer cooperated to try and maintain the connections in cases where the first train was slightly delayed.
And the rise of tickets that could be cheaper if bought A-B-C-D-E-F-Z than a direct A-Z, or if you buy A-Z but get off at A-B, being cheaper (I've even heard of prosecutions for this). Utter madness.
Did someone above suggest this was "blowing over"?
It truly isn't. The Tory rebels efforts even have a project name. And whilst I remember that photo of John Redwood and his rebels, remember that the embarrassing collection of assorted lunatics wazzocks and incompetents is the *Prime Minister*'s team, not the usurper(s).
Cummings is the Poker player with 17 packs-worth of aces up his sleeve.
That was me. It’s blowing over because the mere fact it’s Cummings will unify the Tory Party behind his target. Much as I would like the FLSOJ to be defenestrated it ain’t gonna happen. In two weeks this will be essentially over.
I don't expect it will happen yet. The sense of disbelief amongst some of the MPs is almost comedic - "this can't be happening" is a strong instinct even as the obvious conclusion hones into view.
They may hate Cummings. But it isn't Dom who is outing all this - its the press. He may well be the source, but MPs can hardly ignore all the newspapers being full of pictures of a drunk BJ taking a crap on the Downing Street lawn during a "work meeting" just because they don't like Cummings.
Had all of this been Dom talking with no evidence then I would absolutely agree with you. But it isn't. They likely won't go for him until after the demolition in May, but it will happen. No politician can survive this onslaught.
He’ll still be in charge at the next election. People in this country have the attention span of a gnat
When is the optimum time to have a leader change? Maybe 8-12 months before the GE. Enough time to get your mug on TV regularly but not so much that you can't blame your predecessor for everything.
May this year feels way to early. Nobody normal gives a fuck about local elections. It's all fat old white blokes staring at potholes in free newspapers.
As I've continually said no Tory PM is going to want an election prior to the new boundaries which mean you don't want an election until October / November 2023.
While 8-12 months is probably ideal I don't think that's an option. Now if Boris goes in August (full postal vote after removing Boris in May) then you have 15-17 months which although not ideal is better than leaving it to May 2024 with the added risk of events then damaging you.
Now the downside of an October 2023 election is that you are going to have to have all seats lined up ready to go by September 2023 which may give a hint to other parties that the PM is going to go to the polls early. It also means that a lot of MPs won't have much of an incumbency advantage because a lot of the constituents won't have known them before.
Do we really think a new Tory leader will go to the polls early?
I think we're almost certainly looking at a May 2024 election now, unless the FTPA is repealed and they can extend it for another six months or so.
An early election worked for Johnson, because he could tell the voters it was necessary to Get Brexit Done. It didn't work for May in part because the reason for the election was transparently her personal political advantage.
It looks like we're in a hanging on to the bitter end situation.
The Conservatives won’t want an election before the boundary changes go through, as they’re two decades out of date and worth at least half a dozen seats.
(It would be really interesting to see some up-to-date demographic data, to see how much movement around there has actually been, as opposed to what newspapers and estate agents say has been happening).
Onnyways, just case anyone is feeling too comfortably complacent, there’s a prog on R4 just now about a bloke who had cancer of the penis. Currently describing the sensation of having erections after surgery to remove tumours.
Thanks for that. I was listening to it as I was having my toast and marmelade and literally couldn't stomach it so had to switch it off before it got to the reveal but I was wondering what the issue was (I ducked out while they were still on holiday).
Also finished Succession S3 last night. O. M. F. G.
Absolutely excellent and thanks to those on here who encouraged me to persevere after an imo slow start.
Fuck off, honestly Brian Cox deserves every award going.
That scene with the three younger Roy kids bonding was beautiful but that ending, OMFG.
Not seen S3 yet no spoilers here please!!!
You need to binge watch it now, you won’t regret it.
Yes just figuring out how to do it. Short subscription to Now TV probably the easiest route. Watched S1-2 on dvds we borrowed from friends. The best thing I've seen on TV for years, maybe ever.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
So, the Conservative Party has nothing whatsoever to do with the decline of Unionism in Scotland. That’s a pretty big claim.
It is easy to create a long list of absolutely bonkers things your party has done to create the problem.
Hm - no, while I think HYUFD's approach to Scotland is odd, in this narrow respect I think he is correct, for the following reason: Let's define for the purposes of this argument unionism as 'support for those parties which support the union'. Of course there's a wider definition, but I think this is what we are talking about here. Over my lifetime, support for the Conservative Party in Scotland has not changed all that much - I think it's been roughly a fifth to roughly a quarter. Support for the Labour Party, meanwhile, has cratered. Growth of support for the SNP has been almost entirely at the expense of support for the Labour Party. There are numerous reasons for this, but Labour's approach to devolution has been a big factor.
Now, I differ from HYUFD in what the solution to this is. If there is a solution, it is in making the case for the union for the benefit of all its constituent parts. But I suspect it is too late for this. In fact, I suspect it's been too late for this for my whole lifetime. I often wonder how history might have given us an island with one nation rather than three. Possibly some sort of nation building in the era of nationalism (it worked on the continent, but usually in the context of an external enemy to unite against - perhaps if Napoleon had defeated us a British patriotic movement might have led the resistance to it). Perhaps if the crowns had been united in an earlier age, and as a consequence England and Scotland might have had a shared experience of the reformation. Perhaps if England had had a better run of kings after Athelstan and a unified British kingdom had been created, with North Britain no less part of the kingdom than North England is of England. But none of that happened. History gave us a divided kingdom, which unified for transactional reasons and will divide for the same reasons.
To paraphrase slightly: Boris didn't say in his manifesto that he was going to put his mistress in number 10 and breed like rabbits
Honestly, were I there though, I'd be tempted by UKIP, thinking one lone out of control MP can do less damage than one lone out-of-control PM, and that it would be a fair swap.
Politics has determined that, respect notwithstanding, Southend West ought to be an important milestone in getting Boris done. The fact it probably won't be should be a signal to all main parties that standing aside out of respect should not happen again. And I say that as someone who was initially supportive of the respect paid in this instance.
Well, now that there's been one such case on each side it's politically easier next time(*) for the non-incumbent to fight. Labour fighting Southend West would have looked incredibly ungracious.
(*) Naturally, I hope that there isn't a next time, but it does seem inevitable there will be at some point.
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
So, the Conservative Party has nothing whatsoever to do with the decline of Unionism in Scotland. That’s a pretty big claim.
It is easy to create a long list of absolutely bonkers things your party has done to create the problem.
Hm - no, while I think HYUFD's approach to Scotland is odd, in this narrow respect I think he is correct, for the following reason: Let's define for the purposes of this argument unionism as 'support for those parties which support the union'. Of course there's a wider definition, but I think this is what we are talking about here. Over my lifetime, support for the Conservative Party in Scotland has not changed all that much - I think it's been roughly a fifth to roughly a quarter. Support for the Labour Party, meanwhile, has cratered. Growth of support for the SNP has been almost entirely at the expense of support for the Labour Party. There are numerous reasons for this, but Labour's approach to devolution has been a big factor.
Now, I differ from HYUFD in what the solution to this is. If there is a solution, it is in making the case for the union for the benefit of all its constituent parts. But I suspect it is too late for this. In fact, I suspect it's been too late for this for my whole lifetime. I often wonder how history might have given us an island with one nation rather than three. Possibly some sort of nation building in the era of nationalism (it worked on the continent, but usually in the context of an external enemy to unite against - perhaps if Napoleon had defeated us a British patriotic movement might have led the resistance to it). Perhaps if the crowns had been united in an earlier age, and as a consequence England and Scotland might have had a shared experience of the reformation. Perhaps if England had had a better run of kings after Athelstan and a unified British kingdom had been created, with North Britain no less part of the kingdom than North England is of England. But none of that happened. History gave us a divided kingdom, which unified for transactional reasons and will divide for the same reasons.
Or more likely not divide given Scotland still has net subsidy from the UK Treasury now as much as it wanted when it first joined the Union after the failure of the Darien Scheme
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
I don't think even that's true.
Fair point.
HY only appeals to the core of the core. Or is even that being too generous to him?
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
So, the Conservative Party has nothing whatsoever to do with the decline of Unionism in Scotland. That’s a pretty big claim.
It is easy to create a long list of absolutely bonkers things your party has done to create the problem.
Hm - no, while I think HYUFD's approach to Scotland is odd, in this narrow respect I think he is correct, for the following reason: Let's define for the purposes of this argument unionism as 'support for those parties which support the union'. Of course there's a wider definition, but I think this is what we are talking about here. Over my lifetime, support for the Conservative Party in Scotland has not changed all that much - I think it's been roughly a fifth to roughly a quarter. Support for the Labour Party, meanwhile, has cratered. Growth of support for the SNP has been almost entirely at the expense of support for the Labour Party. There are numerous reasons for this, but Labour's approach to devolution has been a big factor.
Now, I differ from HYUFD in what the solution to this is. If there is a solution, it is in making the case for the union for the benefit of all its constituent parts. But I suspect it is too late for this. In fact, I suspect it's been too late for this for my whole lifetime. I often wonder how history might have given us an island with one nation rather than three. Possibly some sort of nation building in the era of nationalism (it worked on the continent, but usually in the context of an external enemy to unite against - perhaps if Napoleon had defeated us a British patriotic movement might have led the resistance to it). Perhaps if the crowns had been united in an earlier age, and as a consequence England and Scotland might have had a shared experience of the reformation. Perhaps if England had had a better run of kings after Athelstan and a unified British kingdom had been created, with North Britain no less part of the kingdom than North England is of England. But none of that happened. History gave us a divided kingdom, which unified for transactional reasons and will divide for the same reasons.
Before 2017, 15-17% was typical for the Conservatives. That's one in 6.
Did someone above suggest this was "blowing over"?
It truly isn't. The Tory rebels efforts even have a project name. And whilst I remember that photo of John Redwood and his rebels, remember that the embarrassing collection of assorted lunatics wazzocks and incompetents is the *Prime Minister*'s team, not the usurper(s).
Cummings is the Poker player with 17 packs-worth of aces up his sleeve.
That was me. It’s blowing over because the mere fact it’s Cummings will unify the Tory Party behind his target. Much as I would like the FLSOJ to be defenestrated it ain’t gonna happen. In two weeks this will be essentially over.
I don't expect it will happen yet. The sense of disbelief amongst some of the MPs is almost comedic - "this can't be happening" is a strong instinct even as the obvious conclusion hones into view.
They may hate Cummings. But it isn't Dom who is outing all this - its the press. He may well be the source, but MPs can hardly ignore all the newspapers being full of pictures of a drunk BJ taking a crap on the Downing Street lawn during a "work meeting" just because they don't like Cummings.
Had all of this been Dom talking with no evidence then I would absolutely agree with you. But it isn't. They likely won't go for him until after the demolition in May, but it will happen. No politician can survive this onslaught.
He’ll still be in charge at the next election. People in this country have the attention span of a gnat
When is the optimum time to have a leader change? Maybe 8-12 months before the GE. Enough time to get your mug on TV regularly but not so much that you can't blame your predecessor for everything.
May this year feels way to early. Nobody normal gives a fuck about local elections. It's all fat old white blokes staring at potholes in free newspapers.
As I've continually said no Tory PM is going to want an election prior to the new boundaries which mean you don't want an election until October / November 2023.
While 8-12 months is probably ideal I don't think that's an option. Now if Boris goes in August (full postal vote after removing Boris in May) then you have 15-17 months which although not ideal is better than leaving it to May 2024 with the added risk of events then damaging you.
Now the downside of an October 2023 election is that you are going to have to have all seats lined up ready to go by September 2023 which may give a hint to other parties that the PM is going to go to the polls early. It also means that a lot of MPs won't have much of an incumbency advantage because a lot of the constituents won't have known them before.
Do we really think a new Tory leader will go to the polls early?
I think we're almost certainly looking at a May 2024 election now, unless the FTPA is repealed and they can extend it for another six months or so.
An early election worked for Johnson, because he could tell the voters it was necessary to Get Brexit Done. It didn't work for May in part because the reason for the election was transparently her personal political advantage.
It looks like we're in a hanging on to the bitter end situation.
The Conservatives won’t want an election before the boundary changes go through, as they’re two decades out of date and worth at least half a dozen seats.
(It would be really interesting to see some up-to-date demographic data, to see how much movement around there has actually been, as opposed to what newspapers and estate agents say has been happening).
Where have the last 10 years gone? It doesn't feel like 10 minutes ago I was QAing the 2011 outputs.
The fun thing is that ONS will publish a total population number in May (with a big song and dance reveal!). And then the poor analysts will have to do everything they can to keep the total number the same as they continue to work on the more detailed outputs (and inevitably spot errors).
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
In that case, why not let Scotland go?
No, I still believe we are stronger as one UK.
However as I said before my preferred model for Scotland is Quebec. Give Scotland full devomax for virtually all domestic policy and most tax and just have Westminster for defence and foreign policy and major tax changes.
Either that or scrap the devolved parliaments and restore the Union as was, no in between
Not party policy, though, either of those.
If and when the party goes back into opposition my bet is one of them will be.
Either devomax for Holyrood with Westminster becoming an English parliament for English domestic policy (Labour would give Holyrood devomax anyway) and a UK parliament for foreign affairs and major tax or restore the Union as was
So as it stands you are advocating a non-Tory policy. Another thing that puts you outside the Tory party. Plus you didn't describe to me what the Tory Base looks like.
Most Tory voters back an English Parliament already.
If a Labour government gives Scotland devomax than the Tories would respond in opposition with an English Parliament proposal, or at least a return of EVEL.
We will have a lot of interesting debates about the future direction of the Tory party when we are back in opposition (although obviously I hope that is a while off yet).
The Tory base is over 60 and living in rural areas or market towns
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
This feels very much like the EU positioning to be "a power" in a conflict which is brewing right on their doorstep, but from which they have been essentially shut out by the US and Russia who are using this to consolidate their respective superpower statuses.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
This feels very much like the EU positioning to be "a power" in a conflict which is brewing right on their doorstep, but from which they have been essentially shut out by the US and Russia who are using this to consolidate their respective superpower statuses.
Indeed. The fact that the US is speaking directly to Russia about what happens to a country with whom the EU shares a border shows their relevance for all to see. If they want to play or even be listened to they have a lot to do and no consensus about doing it.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
So put it up the flagpole and see how many salute kind of thing?
No, he's looking to be asked for a support deal. I expect Rishi will make him an offer, maybe chancellor.
Starmer’s USP is that he’s sensible and competent. Will be interesting to see how he pivots if faced against a double team of Sunak and Hunt, who on paper are at least his equal on those two scores and in the case of Sunak a better / more likeable salesman.
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
The EU thought about trivialities like harmonising toffee and and cake standards while leaving out the question of how it would defend itself. Yes, it is useless in the face of Ukraine. The even more serious question is how it would defend Finland, given that EU members are in different defence alliance arrangements from each other. You could not make this up.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
The chances that the EU will be blown apart by a defence crisis are higher than negligible.
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
The EU specifically won't go to war, they don't have that power (or capability). What this is really doing is showing up the sham of an EU army to protect the Eastern border. Right now eastern Europe is relying on the generosity of the US, UK, Turkey and other non-EU NATO countries.
Additionally, we see why the US excluded the EU from having a seat at the table in talks with Russia. They are a completely unreliable ally, Germany is resolute in never expending blood and treasure for any foreign policy objective. As the EU's biggest player it's clear that Germany will set the bloc's foreign policy despite Macron's fanciful claims to the contrary.
This has always been the biggest danger for the EU, it likes to pretend it is more than just a trading bloc but ultimately when push comes to shove the Germans have decided the EU is just a huge client state for its industries.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
So put it up the flagpole and see how many salute kind of thing?
No, he's looking to be asked for a support deal. I expect Rishi will make him an offer, maybe chancellor.
Starmer’s USP is that he’s sensible and competent. Will be interesting to see how he pivots if faced against a double team of Sunak and Hunt, who on paper are at least his equal on those two scores and in the case of Sunak a better / more likeable salesman.
He can't.
Starmer getting rid of Boris and then cutting the Tory majority at the next general election but still losing to Sunak is an ideal scenario above all for Andy Burnham.
He would likely then be back in parliament and ideally placed to succeed Starmer as Leader of the Opposition with a Sunak-Hunt government by then likely to resemble the final years of the Major-Heseltine-Clarke government 1992-97 (albeit probably a bit more competently)
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
The EU thought about trivialities like harmonising toffee and and cake standards while leaving out the question of how it would defend itself. Yes, it is useless in the face of Ukraine. The even more serious question is how it would defend Finland, given that EU members are in different defence alliance arrangements from each other. You could not make this up.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
2016: "The EU started as a trading organisation but then became an all powerful superstate meddling with national affairs!!1!" 2022: "Why oh why hasn't the EU done more than just fiddle around with trade issues??/?"
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
In that case, why not let Scotland go?
No, I still believe we are stronger as one UK.
However as I said before my preferred model for Scotland is Quebec. Give Scotland full devomax for virtually all domestic policy and most tax and just have Westminster for defence and foreign policy and major tax changes.
Either that or scrap the devolved parliaments and restore the Union as was, no in between
Not party policy, though, either of those.
If and when the party goes back into opposition my bet is one of them will be.
Either devomax for Holyrood with Westminster becoming an English parliament for English domestic policy (Labour would give Holyrood devomax anyway) and a UK parliament for foreign affairs and major tax or restore the Union as was
So as it stands you are advocating a non-Tory policy. Another thing that puts you outside the Tory party. Plus you didn't describe to me what the Tory Base looks like.
Most Tory voters back an English Parliament already.
If a Labour government gives Scotland devomax than the Tories would respond in opposition with an English Parliament proposal, or at least a return of EVEL.
We will have a lot of interesting debates about the future direction of the Tory party when we are back in opposition (although obviously I hope that is a while off yet).
The Tory base is over 60 and living in rural areas or market towns
Thanks. So you are not the Tory base. Do you interact with them often.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
So put it up the flagpole and see how many salute kind of thing?
No, he's looking to be asked for a support deal. I expect Rishi will make him an offer, maybe chancellor.
Starmer’s USP is that he’s sensible and competent. Will be interesting to see how he pivots if faced against a double team of Sunak and Hunt, who on paper are at least his equal on those two scores and in the case of Sunak a better / more likeable salesman.
It would be a sea change on the chaos of Boris etc and would provide a very serious challenge to Starmer
A Rishi Hunt team would be a competent government especially with JRM and Dorries sent to the back benches
Onnyways, just case anyone is feeling too comfortably complacent, there’s a prog on R4 just now about a bloke who had cancer of the penis. Currently describing the sensation of having erections after surgery to remove tumours.
Thanks for that. I was listening to it as I was having my toast and marmelade and literally couldn't stomach it so had to switch it off before it got to the reveal but I was wondering what the issue was (I ducked out while they were still on holiday).
Also finished Succession S3 last night. O. M. F. G.
Absolutely excellent and thanks to those on here who encouraged me to persevere after an imo slow start.
Fuck off, honestly Brian Cox deserves every award going.
That scene with the three younger Roy kids bonding was beautiful but that ending, OMFG.
Not seen S3 yet no spoilers here please!!!
You need to binge watch it now, you won’t regret it.
Yes just figuring out how to do it. Short subscription to Now TV probably the easiest route. Watched S1-2 on dvds we borrowed from friends. The best thing I've seen on TV for years, maybe ever.
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
So put it up the flagpole and see how many salute kind of thing?
No, he's looking to be asked for a support deal. I expect Rishi will make him an offer, maybe chancellor.
Starmer’s USP is that he’s sensible and competent. Will be interesting to see how he pivots if faced against a double team of Sunak and Hunt, who on paper are at least his equal on those two scores and in the case of Sunak a better / more likeable salesman.
I think Starmer will find it much tougher going against Rishi. He's much slicker on social media, a good and charismatic speaker and seems to have the ability to explain difficult and complicated policies in easily understandable soundbites. He's also pin sharp and seems to take his job seriously. Rishi as PM in 2024 is a 20-40 seat Tory majority IMO. I think like a lot of Asian people his patriotism will come fairly naturally as a child of the empire, when he says he loves the UK it won't feel forced because it will be true. That's a key area where I think a lot of Labour politicians including Statmer struggle.
Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts
The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.
The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”
Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.
Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
Certainly the List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref No to Indyref even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.
It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.
Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.
Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.
Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.
It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.
We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.
I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..
If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.
“Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!
Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
In that case, why not let Scotland go?
No, I still believe we are stronger as one UK.
However as I said before my preferred model for Scotland is Quebec. Give Scotland full devomax for virtually all domestic policy and most tax and just have Westminster for defence and foreign policy and major tax changes.
Either that or scrap the devolved parliaments and restore the Union as was, no in between
Not party policy, though, either of those.
If and when the party goes back into opposition my bet is one of them will be.
Either devomax for Holyrood with Westminster becoming an English parliament for English domestic policy (Labour would give Holyrood devomax anyway) and a UK parliament for foreign affairs and major tax or restore the Union as was
So as it stands you are advocating a non-Tory policy. Another thing that puts you outside the Tory party. Plus you didn't describe to me what the Tory Base looks like.
Most Tory voters back an English Parliament already.
If a Labour government gives Scotland devomax than the Tories would respond in opposition with an English Parliament proposal, or at least a return of EVEL.
We will have a lot of interesting debates about the future direction of the Tory party when we are back in opposition (although obviously I hope that is a while off yet).
The Tory base is over 60 and living in rural areas or market towns
Thanks. So you are not the Tory base. Do you interact with them often.
I am not the Tory base in age terms, I am in terms of living in a market town.
The Labour base by contrast is under 35, renting and living in an inner city or university town.
Everyone else is a swing voter, ie the classic swing voter being someone aged 35-60 and living in the suburbs or commuter belt or ex industrial area with a mortgage
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
The EU thought about trivialities like harmonising toffee and and cake standards while leaving out the question of how it would defend itself. Yes, it is useless in the face of Ukraine. The even more serious question is how it would defend Finland, given that EU members are in different defence alliance arrangements from each other. You could not make this up.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
2016: "The EU started as a trading organisation but then became an all powerful superstate meddling with national affairs!!1!" 2022: "Why oh why hasn't the EU done more than just fiddle around with trade issues??/?"
I’m sure that exactly what Poland and the Baltics are thinking right now.
All the trappings of a state, but forgot that the single most important role of one is to defend itself.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
NEW 🚨 Jeremy Hunt has said that while his “ambition hasn’t completely vanished” when it comes to running for Conservative party leader, “it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”
So put it up the flagpole and see how many salute kind of thing?
No, he's looking to be asked for a support deal. I expect Rishi will make him an offer, maybe chancellor.
Starmer’s USP is that he’s sensible and competent. Will be interesting to see how he pivots if faced against a double team of Sunak and Hunt, who on paper are at least his equal on those two scores and in the case of Sunak a better / more likeable salesman.
A Sunak Hunt team would be enough for me and perhaps others like me to return to the fold, and I think it would present a major problem for Starmer. At the moment he is riding high on being the "not Johnson" alternative, in the same way Johnson achieved success by being the "not Corbyn" alternative.
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
The EU thought about trivialities like harmonising toffee and and cake standards while leaving out the question of how it would defend itself. Yes, it is useless in the face of Ukraine. The even more serious question is how it would defend Finland, given that EU members are in different defence alliance arrangements from each other. You could not make this up.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
2016: "The EU started as a trading organisation but then became an all powerful superstate meddling with national affairs!!1!" 2022: "Why oh why hasn't the EU done more than just fiddle around with trade issues??/?"
I’m sure that exactly what Poland and the Baltics are thinking right now.
All the trappings of a state, but forgot that the single most important role of one is to defend itself.
Yep, the EU wants all the glory without having to do any of the difficult stuff.
Onnyways, just case anyone is feeling too comfortably complacent, there’s a prog on R4 just now about a bloke who had cancer of the penis. Currently describing the sensation of having erections after surgery to remove tumours.
Thanks for that. I was listening to it as I was having my toast and marmelade and literally couldn't stomach it so had to switch it off before it got to the reveal but I was wondering what the issue was (I ducked out while they were still on holiday).
Also finished Succession S3 last night. O. M. F. G.
Absolutely excellent and thanks to those on here who encouraged me to persevere after an imo slow start.
Fuck off, honestly Brian Cox deserves every award going.
That scene with the three younger Roy kids bonding was beautiful but that ending, OMFG.
Not seen S3 yet no spoilers here please!!!
You need to binge watch it now, you won’t regret it.
Yes just figuring out how to do it. Short subscription to Now TV probably the easiest route. Watched S1-2 on dvds we borrowed from friends. The best thing I've seen on TV for years, maybe ever.
You can buy season 3 for £21.99 on iTunes.
Free trial on NowTV, blitz it in a month!
Does that need a so-called "smart" tv?
Depends on the brand, it's on AppleTV boxes and possibly Google TV. I used to use my PS4 when I had it, I think it's on PS5 as well.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.
This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️
Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷♀️
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
That's not what the article says. The EU says Europe is closer to war, etc.
Nobody is going to war in Ukraine except Russia. Even the normally demented tory couch commandos on here don't want British forces involved.
And yet a small contingent of UK troops are there. Is this wise?
If anything, letting Russia regain Ukraine by force with no consequence seems to me to be repeating the mistakes of the past…
“If we let them have this they’ll give up with any further demands”. Yeah, right
Spot on. If I were the UKPM, and Ukraine asked for help, I'd give it. Troops, equipment, bombs, planes. Anything. We need to contain Putin's aggression.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
They are, for sure, but they are a known entity. No one should be surprised by their actions and yet it seems Germany are unprepared for anything beyond tough words about Russia. This is the problem
How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
Well this is an interesting question, and shines a light on another strategic advantage to Putin: inserting wedges in the alliances between his enemies.
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
The EU thought about trivialities like harmonising toffee and and cake standards while leaving out the question of how it would defend itself. Yes, it is useless in the face of Ukraine. The even more serious question is how it would defend Finland, given that EU members are in different defence alliance arrangements from each other. You could not make this up.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
2016: "The EU started as a trading organisation but then became an all powerful superstate meddling with national affairs!!1!" 2022: "Why oh why hasn't the EU done more than just fiddle around with trade issues??/?"
I’m sure that exactly what Poland and the Baltics are thinking right now.
All the trappings of a state, but forgot that the single most important role of one is to defend itself.
Who could imagine a scenario where the Poles were having trouble with Russia and with the Germans behind them at the same time?
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
…I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
They are, for sure, but they are a known entity. No one should be surprised by their actions and yet it seems Germany are unprepared for anything beyond tough words about Russia. This is the problem
And Putin worked out a long time ago, that a gas-dependent Germany would make the EU a paper tiger.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
They are, for sure, but they are a known entity. No one should be surprised by their actions and yet it seems Germany are unprepared for anything beyond tough words about Russia. This is the problem
We're also sending the wrong signals. The whole of the West needs to be a lot more hawkish here. We should't be pissing around bickering among ourselves.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
…I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
An energy policy based 'solely' on the import of gas from Russia? Really?
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
They are, for sure, but they are a known entity. No one should be surprised by their actions and yet it seems Germany are unprepared for anything beyond tough words about Russia. This is the problem
We're also sending the wrong signals. The whole of the West needs to be a lot more hawkish here. We should't be pissing around bickering among ourselves.
Again, aim your ire at the Germans, in that case. They're the appeaser state in this trying very hard to hold the line on tougher action.
It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.
This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️
Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷♀️
Margaret Thatcher was replaced in the run up to Gulf War 1 IIRC, where we had rather more skin in the game. If we are headed for such a crisis it is definitely the time to ditch Johnson.
Onnyways, just case anyone is feeling too comfortably complacent, there’s a prog on R4 just now about a bloke who had cancer of the penis. Currently describing the sensation of having erections after surgery to remove tumours.
Thanks for that. I was listening to it as I was having my toast and marmelade and literally couldn't stomach it so had to switch it off before it got to the reveal but I was wondering what the issue was (I ducked out while they were still on holiday).
Also finished Succession S3 last night. O. M. F. G.
Absolutely excellent and thanks to those on here who encouraged me to persevere after an imo slow start.
Fuck off, honestly Brian Cox deserves every award going.
That scene with the three younger Roy kids bonding was beautiful but that ending, OMFG.
Not seen S3 yet no spoilers here please!!!
You need to binge watch it now, you won’t regret it.
Yes just figuring out how to do it. Short subscription to Now TV probably the easiest route. Watched S1-2 on dvds we borrowed from friends. The best thing I've seen on TV for years, maybe ever.
You can buy season 3 for £21.99 on iTunes.
Free trial on NowTV, blitz it in a month!
Does that need a so-called "smart" tv?
Depends on the brand, it's on AppleTV boxes and possibly Google TV. I used to use my PS4 when I had it, I think it's on PS5 as well.
Ah, you're a bit over my head there. I have an old Samsung telly connected to streaming (eg Netflix) via btbroadband. I'll have a fiddle anyway, see what transpires.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
…I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
An energy policy based 'solely' on the import of gas from Russia? Really?
Perhaps solely was an overreach, but no doubt Nordstream 2 is a hugely important strategic tool for Putin
It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.
This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️
Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷♀️
It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.
This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️
Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷♀️
We changed PMs in the middle of WWII!
As Eagles said. And I want to agree with both of you.
But previous examples was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.
I know people are gutted the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this damned war. But do you see the point I am making?
Interesting marketing ploy by Costa. Just received a mail saying that as I haven't used my Costa Rewards Card for 12 months they are about to remove my rewards (currently 1x free coffee).
I will now use Costa once more before the cut off date to get my free coffee and endeavour to use them as little as possible in the back to work new era we are about to enter.
Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
They are, for sure, but they are a known entity. No one should be surprised by their actions and yet it seems Germany are unprepared for anything beyond tough words about Russia. This is the problem
We're also sending the wrong signals. The whole of the West needs to be a lot more hawkish here. We should't be pissing around bickering among ourselves.
Again, aim your ire at the Germans, in that case. They're the appeaser state in this trying very hard to hold the line on tougher action.
No no no and a thousand times no! Stop making this about Germany. This is Russia (potentially) invading Ukraine. Russia is the problem. We need to act to preserve Ukraine if Ukraine asks for our help. The more the merrier, and if Germany can't or won't join us that is extremely regrettable, but I will not aim any "ire" at them. Russia is the problem, and infighting does help at all. Focus, man!
It's quite good that the British Rail double arrow continued in use on tickets and to denote stations all the way through the privatised era, and is now going to be the logo of GBR. 57 years and counting.
Anything is better than the ridiculous franchising system that embarrassed this nation for so many years, as a bunch of chiselling, pettifogging all-brand-no-bollocks companies rinsed the taxpayer while blaming each other for their manifold failings.
One of the few good moves by this government, bringing back a unified national system.
Which delivered remarkable performance and quality of service benefits.
Comments
At the time the Labour Party represented a party of Politics (with whom I often agreed in principle, but disliked in practice).
Over that time, in my view the Tories (nationally) have become a narrow, politically-orientated cabal of the lazy, self-interested, and culturally moribund little-Englanders, with no appetite for governance, just the trappings of power. They left me 10 years ago, and the situation now is that I am unlikely ever to vote for them again.
I enjoy reading HYUFD's takes, and more power to the HYUFD elbow, but this post just about sums up that disillusionment for me.
Full interview coming soon in @TheHouseMag
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-hunt-says-it-would-take-a-lot-to-persuade-him-to-run-for-tory-leader-again
EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia
This is becoming very serious and real
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19
https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/census2021outputs/releaseplans
*Insert coffin dance meme*
If you or an MP you know is absolutely not wargaming for a leadership campaign, my, and the @politicshome team DMs are open.
https://twitter.com/laurasilver_/status/1483399950297927684
Let's define for the purposes of this argument unionism as 'support for those parties which support the union'. Of course there's a wider definition, but I think this is what we are talking about here.
Over my lifetime, support for the Conservative Party in Scotland has not changed all that much - I think it's been roughly a fifth to roughly a quarter. Support for the Labour Party, meanwhile, has cratered. Growth of support for the SNP has been almost entirely at the expense of support for the Labour Party.
There are numerous reasons for this, but Labour's approach to devolution has been a big factor.
Now, I differ from HYUFD in what the solution to this is. If there is a solution, it is in making the case for the union for the benefit of all its constituent parts. But I suspect it is too late for this. In fact, I suspect it's been too late for this for my whole lifetime. I often wonder how history might have given us an island with one nation rather than three. Possibly some sort of nation building in the era of nationalism (it worked on the continent, but usually in the context of an external enemy to unite against - perhaps if Napoleon had defeated us a British patriotic movement might have led the resistance to it). Perhaps if the crowns had been united in an earlier age, and as a consequence England and Scotland might have had a shared experience of the reformation. Perhaps if England had had a better run of kings after Athelstan and a unified British kingdom had been created, with North Britain no less part of the kingdom than North England is of England.
But none of that happened. History gave us a divided kingdom, which unified for transactional reasons and will divide for the same reasons.
(*) Naturally, I hope that there isn't a next time, but it does seem inevitable there will be at some point.
The fun thing is that ONS will publish a total population number in May (with a big song and dance reveal!). And then the poor analysts will have to do everything they can to keep the total number the same as they continue to work on the more detailed outputs (and inevitably spot errors).
If a Labour government gives Scotland devomax than the Tories would respond in opposition with an English Parliament proposal, or at least a return of EVEL.
We will have a lot of interesting debates about the future direction of the Tory party when we are back in opposition (although obviously I hope that is a while off yet).
The Tory base is over 60 and living in rural areas or market towns
And yes, the Germans: bloody useless.
Biggest explosion in 3 decades.
Tonga Boris, Tonga.
Nobody is going to war in Ukraine except Russia. Even the normally demented tory couch commandos on here don't want British forces involved.
And it has just, by pure pig headedness lost its other nuclear power, the UK.
The chances that the EU will be blown apart by a defence crisis are higher than negligible.
Additionally, we see why the US excluded the EU from having a seat at the table in talks with Russia. They are a completely unreliable ally, Germany is resolute in never expending blood and treasure for any foreign policy objective. As the EU's biggest player it's clear that Germany will set the bloc's foreign policy despite Macron's fanciful claims to the contrary.
This has always been the biggest danger for the EU, it likes to pretend it is more than just a trading bloc but ultimately when push comes to shove the Germans have decided the EU is just a huge client state for its industries.
Starmer getting rid of Boris and then cutting the Tory majority at the next general election but still losing to Sunak is an ideal scenario above all for Andy Burnham.
He would likely then be back in parliament and ideally placed to succeed Starmer as Leader of the Opposition with a Sunak-Hunt government by then likely to resemble the final years of the Major-Heseltine-Clarke government 1992-97 (albeit probably a bit more competently)
2022: "Why oh why hasn't the EU done more than just fiddle around with trade issues??/?"
A Rishi Hunt team would be a competent government especially with JRM and Dorries sent to the back benches
The Labour base by contrast is under 35, renting and living in an inner city or university town.
Everyone else is a swing voter, ie the classic swing voter being someone aged 35-60 and living in the suburbs or commuter belt or ex industrial area with a mortgage
All the trappings of a state, but forgot that the single most important role of one is to defend itself.
..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole
“If we let them have this they’ll give up with any further demands”. Yeah, right
This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️
Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷♀️
NEW THREAD
But previous examples was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.
I know people are gutted the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this damned war. But do you see the point I am making?
Stop making this about Germany. This is Russia (potentially) invading Ukraine. Russia is the problem. We need to act to preserve Ukraine if Ukraine asks for our help. The more the merrier, and if Germany can't or won't join us that is extremely regrettable, but I will not aim any "ire" at them. Russia is the problem, and infighting does help at all.
Focus, man!