Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
With Boris you'd end up paying for all the drinks.
He’d try to slip you rohypnol and then blame it on the minimum wage, immigrant cleaner.
If HYUFD is right - and I see no reason to doubt him - then surely Boris will do all that he can to stop Cummings's co-plotter, i.e. Rishi, from claiming the ultimate prize. Indeed, I suspect Boris cares far less about Brexit than Cummings does, so as a last act of revenge Boris might try to engineer a Remainer as his successor in the (probably forlorn) hope that Brexit is cancelled and Dom's legacy destroyed.
I seriously wonder if even 20% of the population have heard of Dominic Cummings and probably fewer than 10% could pick him out of a line out. Brexit is Boris’s legacy for good or ill and he will not want it to look like a brief aberration.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
All Rishi needs to do is put together a vaguely competent cabinet, outline a vision and go with it.
Can’t do worse than Johnson
The problem with that is the "outline a vision" bit. Unless it is all things to all people, or so ludicrously vague as to be meaningless, he'll have significant numbers of MP's against it from the start. The fundamental problem is that different groups of Tories want mutually exclusive and directly opposite things. Only a shameless charlatan could bring and hold them together. For a while anyways.
As discussed on here a week or so ago, if Boris has to resign (e.g. because he lied to Parliament) Raab as interim PM pending a Tory Leadership election is very plausible.
I can't see how Boris could be 'forced to resign' but stay as PM until a new leader has been elected.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
“ football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down”.
And of more importance, the U.K. is arming Ukraine as Germany refuses to do so.
I do think the whole “Germany” seemingly to be taking a rather odd strategy line against Russia - alienating its allies - as one thing that is flying under the radar at the moment.
The Ukraine and Russia is still bubbling up.
East Politics has been a thing in Germany since before Bismarck.
When you add in the Ukrainian Nationalism = Fascism stuff, and the determination that Germany will never oppose Russia. Again.....
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
If HYUFD is right - and I see no reason to doubt him - then surely Boris will do all that he can to stop Cummings's co-plotter, i.e. Rishi, from claiming the ultimate prize. Indeed, I suspect Boris cares far less about Brexit than Cummings does, so as a last act of revenge Boris might try to engineer a Remainer as his successor in the (probably forlorn) hope that Brexit is cancelled and Dom's legacy destroyed.
I seriously wonder if even 20% of the population have heard of Dominic Cummings and probably fewer than 10% could pick him out of a line out. Brexit is Boris’s legacy for good or ill and he will not want it to look like a brief aberration.
Brexit is dead already. Rishi (despite having voted for it) will focus quietly on cleaning up the resultant shit-heap.
Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.
The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).
The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.
Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.
Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.
Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.
We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.
I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)
You have to explain that one it makes no sense.
And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?
Morgondopp? Midsommarstång? Åsiktskorridoren?
I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.
I have been meaning to say for days I didn’t know how to politely broach it. Now we have. IT’S CREEPY. It’s got a sinister stare that follows you round the room.
I knew you’d be difficult about it.
It’s in our nature to be difficult. It’s what we do.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
As discussed on here a week or so ago, if Boris has to resign (e.g. because he lied to Parliament) Raab as interim PM pending a Tory Leadership election is very plausible.
I can't see how Boris could be 'forced to resign' but stay as PM until a new leader has been elected.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
Lol - but one mistake:
Boris would never be in the pub. He's never been to one, ever. Well, he may have wondered into one once but no one told him it was a pub - his advisers told him it was a regular office. There was no email inviting him to the pub and anyway he never read it. Nor were there any telling him going to the pub was a bad idea, and he didn't read those either.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.
The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).
The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.
Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.
Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.
Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.
We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.
I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)
You have to explain that one it makes no sense.
And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?
Morgondopp? Midsommarstång? Åsiktskorridoren?
I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.
I have been meaning to say for days I didn’t know how to politely broach it. Now we have. IT’S CREEPY. It’s got a sinister stare that follows you round the room.
I knew you’d be difficult about it.
It’s in our nature to be difficult. It’s what we do.
See that twelf one, on the end… played by Tele Savalas? That’s you that is.
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
As discussed on here a week or so ago, if Boris has to resign (e.g. because he lied to Parliament) Raab as interim PM pending a Tory Leadership election is very plausible.
I can't see how Boris could be 'forced to resign' but stay as PM until a new leader has been elected.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Major on the other hand. Starting quiet but warming up after a couple, I'd like to think.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
You're on form tonight.
I reckon John Major would be quite good in a pub environment. Or would have been in his heyday, anyway. Would drink at exactly the right pace, talk cheerfully and engagingly about cricket.
I'd do Thatcher, but I can't beat the anecdote I read 20-odd years ago - possibly Simon Hoggart, probably written as an archetype rather than actual reportage: At No. 10 events, some terrified member of the public, or American, would find themselves in Thatcher's path, attempt a pleasantry and receive a twenty minute lecture on, basically Thatcherism, a full-on assult with all the force of her personality, before she would smile, terrifyingly, and move on to her next victim: meanwhile, Dennis would be smiling amiably in the background. As she moved on, Dennis would console the victim thus: "never mind old chap - have a gin and tonic".
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Major on the other hand. Starting quiet but warming up after a couple, I'd like to think.
Fascinating. I should imagine. If you like cricket.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Major on the other hand. Starting quiet but warming up after a couple, I'd like to think.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
With the deficits he's been running, calling Sunak a borrower seems appropriate.
Brexit is dead. You know what else is dead? Levelling up.
Boris doesn’t care enough to focus on the details, and Rishi is actively hostile to it.
IPPR North’s report today is brutal. - Most Levelling Up promises are broken - Paltry new spend of £32 pp v £413 in austerity cuts - 95p in every £1 spent by central government four years ago is now 96p. - Jobs and proverty data show north/south divide is getting worse.
I am not sure any of this electorally salient, and the “North” and “Midlands” don’t seem to vote in their own economic interests, but it is worth noting.
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
I fear the following: that Rishi is probably OKish if not about to set the world alight. But lacking a full awareness of quite how awful many of the current cabinet are. Like Major before him I could imagine a fundamentally middle of the road PM being defined by the idiocies and extremes (and corruption) of ministers over whom he doesn't exercise enough control.
PM's terms aren't always defined by their own behaviour.
The great tragedy of Germany's position here is that it's destroying trust in Central Europe every minute of every day and Germans don't even realise it. They think of themselves as great allies and great Europeans while its neighbours are left to shake their head in disbelief.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
A journalist friend of mine met Cameron and said exactly that - if you're of no use to him, he doesn't give you the time of day, while Osborne seemed genuinely nice.
I met Osborne myself socially once and can confirm the latter, but not the former.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
If HYUFD is right - and I see no reason to doubt him - then surely Boris will do all that he can to stop Cummings's co-plotter, i.e. Rishi, from claiming the ultimate prize. Indeed, I suspect Boris cares far less about Brexit than Cummings does, so as a last act of revenge Boris might try to engineer a Remainer as his successor in the (probably forlorn) hope that Brexit is cancelled and Dom's legacy destroyed.
I seriously wonder if even 20% of the population have heard of Dominic Cummings and probably fewer than 10% could pick him out of a line out. Brexit is Boris’s legacy for good or ill and he will not want it to look like a brief aberration.
Brexit is dead already. Rishi (despite having voted for it) will focus quietly on cleaning up the resultant shit-heap.
I presume that you write this tosh to make yourself feel better. It is our membership of the EU that is dead. Probably forever, certainly for the rest of my lifetime. Whether we can find a more cordial understanding with them is of course a different matter and it is probable that a leader post Boris can reset that.
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
I fear the following: that Rishi is probably OKish if not about to set the world alight. But lacking a full awareness of quite how awful many of the current cabinet are. Like Major before him I could imagine a fundamentally middle of the road PM being defined by the idiocies and extremes (and corruption) of ministers over whom he doesn't exercise enough control.
PM's terms aren't always defined by their own behaviour.
Yes. I almost mentioned Major in my post. Sort of emerged from obscurity in a couple of years before a totally unexpected vacancy.
As discussed on here a week or so ago, if Boris has to resign (e.g. because he lied to Parliament) Raab as interim PM pending a Tory Leadership election is very plausible.
I can't see how Boris could be 'forced to resign' but stay as PM until a new leader has been elected.
I don't think interim PM counts with these bets.
Yes it does, no such thing as an interim pm. It's party leader markets where temps are excluded
If HYUFD is right - and I see no reason to doubt him - then surely Boris will do all that he can to stop Cummings's co-plotter, i.e. Rishi, from claiming the ultimate prize. Indeed, I suspect Boris cares far less about Brexit than Cummings does, so as a last act of revenge Boris might try to engineer a Remainer as his successor in the (probably forlorn) hope that Brexit is cancelled and Dom's legacy destroyed.
I seriously wonder if even 20% of the population have heard of Dominic Cummings and probably fewer than 10% could pick him out of a line out. Brexit is Boris’s legacy for good or ill and he will not want it to look like a brief aberration.
Brexit is dead already. Rishi (despite having voted for it) will focus quietly on cleaning up the resultant shit-heap.
I presume that you write this tosh to make yourself feel better. It is our membership of the EU that is dead. Probably forever, certainly for the rest of my lifetime. Whether we can find a more cordial understanding with them is of course a different matter and it is probable that a leader post Boris can reset that.
I don’t think UK will return.
I just mean it is over as a political force that motivates very gullible voters like yourself.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
I've met four PMs and Cameron was the least charming, Major the most.
Brexit is dead. You know what else is dead? Levelling up.
Boris doesn’t care enough to focus on the details, and Rishi is actively hostile to it.
IPPR North’s report today is brutal. - Most Levelling Up promises are broken - Paltry new spend of £32 pp v £413 in austerity cuts - 95p in every £1 spent by central government four years ago is now 96p. - Jobs and proverty data show north/south divide is getting worse.
I am not sure any of this electorally salient, and the “North” and “Midlands” don’t seem to vote in their own economic interests, but it is worth noting.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
Back in the day, Germany used to invade Ukraine (1918 AND 1941).
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.
The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).
The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.
Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.
Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.
Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.
We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.
I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)
You have to explain that one it makes no sense.
And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?
Morgondopp? Midsommarstång? Åsiktskorridoren?
I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.
I have been meaning to say for days I didn’t know how to politely broach it. Now we have. IT’S CREEPY. It’s got a sinister stare that follows you round the room.
I knew you’d be difficult about it.
It’s in our nature to be difficult. It’s what we do.
See that twelf one, on the end… played by Tele Savalas? That’s you that is.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Major on the other hand. Starting quiet but warming up after a couple, I'd like to think.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
You're on form tonight.
I reckon John Major would be quite good in a pub environment. Or would have been in his heyday, anyway. Would drink at exactly the right pace, talk cheerfully and engagingly about cricket.
I'd do Thatcher, but I can't beat the anecdote I read 20-odd years ago - possibly Simon Hoggart, probably written as an archetype rather than actual reportage: At No. 10 events, some terrified member of the public, or American, would find themselves in Thatcher's path, attempt a pleasantry and receive a twenty minute lecture on, basically Thatcherism, a full-on assult with all the force of her personality, before she would smile, terrifyingly, and move on to her next victim: meanwhile, Dennis would be smiling amiably in the background. As she moved on, Dennis would console the victim thus: "never mind old chap - have a gin and tonic".
Agree on Major. The soapbox thing wasn't an act for him- he'd been doing politics like that since the 1960's. In a room with dozens of people, he was a marvel. (As, in a different way, was Jeffrey Archer. Had he stuck to his original career of prep school sports master, I can imagine him having led a good life, retiring with the affection of generations of old boys.)
The last cornershop retail politician to make it to the top?
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
I've met four PMs and Cameron was the least charming, Major the most.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Major on the other hand. Starting quiet but warming up after a couple, I'd like to think.
An old friend of mine knew Major when he was a junior minister at the Treasury. The other politicians would lunch and plot with each other and their SPADS, while Major preferred to lunch with the secretaries and other office staff in the canteen. He is a genuinely humble and decent bloke, and you won't hear me say that about many Tories.
Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.
Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer
He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum
Horrible thought: is a Russian invasion of the Ukraine the one thing that could save Johnson? The ultimate dead cat?
Putin may well have Johnson's survival in mind as he plans his next move. A weak and unstable UK Prime Minister might be just the ticket in Putin's plan for world domination.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Ukraine can win, but only by being asymmetrical. Large formations would play into the Russians hands, after all the Ukrainan steppe is ideal for such things. Small moving bands, fighting in the cities and moving quickly could well turn an invasion into a running sore, and not one that the Russian conscripts would like.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Dave looked over my shoulder when I was the only person in a lift with him.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
I'm with you - I don't think anybody really has much of a clue whether Sunak would be any good or not, either as PM or in the hurly burly of an election campaign. He's never been really tested, and because of Covid he's had the relatively easy job of dishing out loads of money for most of the last couple of years.
I seem to recall he stood in for BJ at one of the leadership debates at GE 2019, and was distinctly underwhelming.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Dave looked over my shoulder when I was the only person in a lift with him.
Well, at least Rishi is never going to do that to anyone.
I know who sent the email to Martin Reynolds on 20 May 2020 telling him the planned “bring your own booze” party should not go ahead - though the sender tells me he does not want to be seen as agent provocateur against the prime minister and has asked me not to name him.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Dave looked over my shoulder when I was the only person in a lift with him.
I am haunted by the judgement of “Obama’s people” upon first meeting Cameron, which was, effectively, that he was a superficial chancer.
Brexit is dead. You know what else is dead? Levelling up.
Boris doesn’t care enough to focus on the details, and Rishi is actively hostile to it.
IPPR North’s report today is brutal. - Most Levelling Up promises are broken - Paltry new spend of £32 pp v £413 in austerity cuts - 95p in every £1 spent by central government four years ago is now 96p. - Jobs and proverty data show north/south divide is getting worse.
I am not sure any of this electorally salient, and the “North” and “Midlands” don’t seem to vote in their own economic interests, but it is worth noting.
Perhaps you should visit some of those constituencies which went Conservative in 2019 and see all the new housing estates being built.
As for jobs, different places have different levels.
But you've got full employment in the mining areas for the first time since anyone can remember.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Ukraine can win, but only by being asymmetrical. Large formations would play into the Russians hands, after all the Ukrainan steppe is ideal for such things. Small moving bands, fighting in the cities and moving quickly could well turn an invasion into a running sore, and not one that the Russian conscripts would like.
In particular, they were expert at combining radio/radar triangulation to hammer any kind of vaguely fixed Ukrainian position.
Things that come to mind are The Great Toyota War, and the NATO tactics if there was a breakthrough at the Fulda Gap - roving anti-tank teams, 3 men in a jeep basically, hit the front and back of a convoy of vehicles and run.....
Boris would piss in a pint glass and hand it to you saying "I got you a cider". May would be in the doorway chain-smoking like Dot Cotton. Cameron would arrive with a red tongue from downing a bottle of wine at home to have a cheap night. He'd end up drinking the warm pint Boris handed you. Brown would start a fight with the bouncer and not even get in. Blair would be helping out behind the bar, shirt sleeves rolled up, all smiles. Only later would the owner find the till down. Major would be hovering by the quiz machine giving all the right answers but not making any friends. Thatcher wouldn't be there cos she's dead.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Dave looked over my shoulder when I was the only person in a lift with him.
I am haunted by the judgement of “Obama’s people” upon first meeting Cameron, which was, effectively, that he was a superficial chancer.
Superficial head of government of a superficial state.
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
I'm with you - I don't think anybody really has much of a clue whether Sunak would be any good or not, either as PM or in the hurly burly of an election campaign. He's never been really tested, and because of Covid he's had the relatively easy job of dishing out loads of money for most of the last couple of years.
I seem to recall he stood in for BJ at one of the leadership debates at GE 2019, and was distinctly underwhelming.
We already know that Rishi is a fiscal militant, ex-banker, and was pro the “Great Barrington” types.
He’s also anti- “levelling up”.
I think he is charming and eloquent and sober and hardworking, even.
But he doesn’t understand what Britain’s problems are, and he doesn’t have any solutions.
Boris would piss in a pint glass and hand it to you saying "I got you a cider". May would be in the doorway chain-smoking like Dot Cotton. Cameron would arrive with a red tongue from downing a bottle of wine at home to have a cheap night. He'd end up drinking the warm pint Boris handed you. Brown would start a fight with the bouncer and not even get in. Blair would be helping out behind the bar, shirt sleeves rolled up, all smiles. Only later would the owner find the till down. Major would be hovering by the quiz machine giving all the right answers but not making any friends. Thatcher wouldn't be there cos she's dead.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 4m As we reported tonight two former officials remember Cummings discussing warning the PM on May 20th, 2020, that he shouldn't go ahead with the event in the garden - No 10 have totally disputed this version of events
Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic. And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.
Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.
And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.
The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.
I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.
That's always the case until they get the job.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Yes. Fair comment. However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like. Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron. Nor even as a celebrity Mayor. He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory. We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions. Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
I'm with you - I don't think anybody really has much of a clue whether Sunak would be any good or not, either as PM or in the hurly burly of an election campaign. He's never been really tested, and because of Covid he's had the relatively easy job of dishing out loads of money for most of the last couple of years.
I seem to recall he stood in for BJ at one of the leadership debates at GE 2019, and was distinctly underwhelming.
We already know that Rishi is a fiscal militant, ex-banker, and was pro the “Great Barrington” types.
He’s also anti- “levelling up”.
I think he is charming and eloquent and sober and hardworking, even.
But he doesn’t understand what Britain’s problems are, and he doesn’t have any solutions.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 4m As we reported tonight two former officials remember Cummings discussing warning the PM on May 20th, 2020, that he shouldn't go ahead with the event in the garden - No 10 have totally disputed this version of events
Who were those Cummings lackies that got the boot because of Princess Nut Nut? Lee Cain and the data guy?
Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.
Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer
He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.
If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects
I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.
Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.
I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.
Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.
"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it
But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.
He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)
Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub
Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife
Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave
Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave
Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing
Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down
THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW
I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
Dave looked over my shoulder when I was the only person in a lift with him.
I am haunted by the judgement of “Obama’s people” upon first meeting Cameron, which was, effectively, that he was a superficial chancer.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Ukraine can win, but only by being asymmetrical. Large formations would play into the Russians hands, after all the Ukrainan steppe is ideal for such things. Small moving bands, fighting in the cities and moving quickly could well turn an invasion into a running sore, and not one that the Russian conscripts would like.
That was pretty much the Chechen plan from 2000 on. It didn't go that well for them.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 4m As we reported tonight two former officials remember Cummings discussing warning the PM on May 20th, 2020, that he shouldn't go ahead with the event in the garden - No 10 have totally disputed this version of events
Even without the lockdown restrictions is it conceivable that 100 people could have a party in what is effectively the prime minister's back garden without the prime minister being informed and security issues being considered ?
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 4m As we reported tonight two former officials remember Cummings discussing warning the PM on May 20th, 2020, that he shouldn't go ahead with the event in the garden - No 10 have totally disputed this version of events
Who would have thought it? Signal your plan to blame it all on the Civil Service, and they rally round? Mystifying.
Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.
Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer
He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Ukraine can win, but only by being asymmetrical. Large formations would play into the Russians hands, after all the Ukrainan steppe is ideal for such things. Small moving bands, fighting in the cities and moving quickly could well turn an invasion into a running sore, and not one that the Russian conscripts would like.
That was pretty much the Chechen plan from 2000 on. It didn't go that well for them.
Ukraine has a much bigger population, and will get both weapons and intelligence from the West. The Chechens had mountains and fanaticism, but not much else.
I don't think Russia can sustain a long war, though could probably complete the Donbas annexation and perhaps expand it a little, but not much more.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
The clear evidence for this was the party where it really got out of hand, Boris wasn't anywhere near that one, and it clearly descended into a proper proper party, rather than garden boozing with nibbles or the dull zoom quiz.
Boris clearly set the tone and they definitely broke the rules and Boris is lying, but some took the opportunity for socialising on Friday evenings while the pubs were shut and treated it like uni freshers week.
I am surprised we haven't had tales of people being caught shagging in the stationary cupboard.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
Yep. It needs a total clear-out. Reynolds, Case, the lot.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
Clearances for military aircraft are an absolutely pain in the dick and routes are often planned to need fewer rather than more. That's not to say that Germany didn't refuse - I don't know.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.
Ukraine can win, but only by being asymmetrical. Large formations would play into the Russians hands, after all the Ukrainan steppe is ideal for such things. Small moving bands, fighting in the cities and moving quickly could well turn an invasion into a running sore, and not one that the Russian conscripts would like.
That was pretty much the Chechen plan from 2000 on. It didn't go that well for them.
Ukraine has a much bigger population, and will get both weapons and intelligence from the West. The Chechens had mountains and fanaticism, but not much else.
I don't think Russia can sustain a long war, though could probably complete the Donbas annexation and perhaps expand it a little, but not much more.
The Russians "won" in Chechnya by destroying everything. Not sure even the East Politics types in Germany would stomach that in the Ukraine.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
Yep. It needs a total clear-out. Reynolds, Case, the lot.
It's harder to say which is more stupid -
- I didn't realise there was a party. BJ - We weren't responsible for the party. Despite being there, drinking, playing music etc etc. The rest of them.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
The clear evidence for this was the party where it really got out of hand, Boris wasn't anywhere near that one, and it clearly descended into a proper proper party, rather than garden boozing with nibbles or the dull zoom quiz.
Boris clearly set the tone and they definitely broke the rules and Boris is lying, but some took the opportunity for socialising on Friday evenings while the pubs were shut and treated it like uni freshers week.
And did Sunak always trot off to one of his homes before 1700?
Were he or his team really not copied into any email invites?
1. “Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling” - Dura Ace
2. “. A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.“ - Malmesbury
3. “is a Russian invasion of the Ukraine the one thing that could save Johnson? The ultimate dead cat?” - Ben Pointer
We have PBers who can properly answer the questions I am sure 🙂
we have taken option to send troops - the Daily Mail claim we have, so can we clear that one up, is the Mail lying?
at least latest technology to kill as many Russians as possible if they invade? To act as a military deterrent? Or virtue signalling?
If you go do you go all in to save Ukraine from Putin, with allies, or what is the value of just a token measure? I can understand value of trying to save Ukraine and it’s West leaning democracy, but a token effort just flags up our business is quite the opposite of genuinely answering their pleas for help? underlines we are not really willing to fight for Ukraine, or acting with many like minded allies when the Ukraines who resist are slaughtered in front of us on news Channel?
Should we do anything to encourage them to slaughter themselves 😕
Surely any military move, especially when we commit troops, or even small ones like this has a purpose, value and gains to make, you can appear in front reporters explain what you are getting into and exit strategy to get out? So can rule out unlike other government business this week this nothing to do with Operation Save the Dog, our commitment and action carefully planned?
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
Yep. It needs a total clear-out. Reynolds, Case, the lot.
It's harder to say which is more stupid -
- I didn't realise there was a party. BJ - We weren't responsible for the party. Despite being there, drinking, playing music etc etc. The rest of them.
They are hiding behind their civil service status and their relative anonymity.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 36m Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
Peston: The prime minister's plan, according to those close to him, is to scorch the earth of the supposedly culpable officials - to clear them out - so he can live securely ever after at Number 10.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Its obviously that Boris has wandered around going have a drink, jolly good chaps, quite right to have a bit of relaxation time, everybody has been working hard, carry on....and now wants all those people to take the fall.
It is entertaining that the people involved think that the PM going will somehow provide cover for them.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
The clear evidence for this was the party where it really got out of hand, Boris wasn't anywhere near that one, and it clearly descended into a proper proper party, rather than garden boozing with nibbles or the dull zoom quiz.
Boris clearly set the tone and they definitely broke the rules and Boris is lying, but some took the opportunity for socialising on Friday evenings while the pubs were shut and treated it like uni freshers week.
And did Sunak always trot off to one of his homes before 1700?
Were he or his team really not copied into any email invites?
I wouldn't be surprised if Sunak really did go home. He seems to have some political nous and if Big Dom is to be believed he was warning people this stuff wasn't ok (and Dishy Rishi is his man, so I am sure he probably said don't get caught near these things).
Now if some of his team attended that's a different matter.
David Miliband @DMiliband · 8h I worked in 10 Downing Street for 4 years (1997-2001). There were receptions in the state rooms, working dinners with dignitaries, but I don’t remember a single party, DJ etc. There was much more reverence than revelry. This idea “they’re all at it” is nonsense
Comments
Cameron would be quite good. He'd have a proper pint with you, and probably enjoy it, and he'd very successfully hide the fact he would generally prefer a fine Rioja- his downfall would be that every-so-often he would noticeably glance over your shoulder seeking out someone more interesting and important, and he would not be able to hide this yearning, unlike Blair, who could hide this, even tho he felt the same (is my guess)
The fundamental problem is that different groups of Tories want mutually exclusive and directly opposite things.
Only a shameless charlatan could bring and hold them together.
For a while anyways.
As discussed on here a week or so ago, if Boris has to resign (e.g. because he lied to Parliament) Raab as interim PM pending a Tory Leadership election is very plausible.
I can't see how Boris could be 'forced to resign' but stay as PM until a new leader has been elected.
Sounds like Arsenal.
When you add in the Ukrainian Nationalism = Fascism stuff, and the determination that Germany will never oppose Russia. Again.....
None of this is a surprise.
And likewise pretty much everything in real life as well.
Though given that they're all imagery and spin its especially true of politicians.
Rishi (despite having voted for it) will focus quietly on cleaning up the resultant shit-heap.
It’s what we do.
WTF? Does this mean Germany's @GermanyDiplo refused diplo clearance for UK's delivery of anti-tank weapons to #Ukraine? Or some other reason?
https://twitter.com/thomas_wiegold/status/1483170685040087040?s=20
This is an awful look for Germany.
Reasons are yet clear, but two UK C-17 with military aid for Ukraine avoiding German airspace will give a devastating signal to Central and Eastern European allies.
https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1483197877832896514?s=20
Boris would never be in the pub. He's never been to one, ever. Well, he may have wondered into one once but no one told him it was a pub - his advisers told him it was a regular office. There was no email inviting him to the pub and anyway he never read it. Nor were there any telling him going to the pub was a bad idea, and he didn't read those either.
However. Sunak seems particularly unknown. He hasn't been around for years in high office like Brown or May. So we knew what they'd be like.
Nor years as LOTO like Blair and Cameron.
Nor even as a celebrity Mayor.
He burst onto the scene during 2 of the most untypical years of living memory.
We've absolutely no idea what he'd be like under normal conditions.
Nor, indeed what policies he'll have.
Talk about a fish out of water.
Now that was a night out...
I reckon John Major would be quite good in a pub environment. Or would have been in his heyday, anyway. Would drink at exactly the right pace, talk cheerfully and engagingly about cricket.
I'd do Thatcher, but I can't beat the anecdote I read 20-odd years ago - possibly Simon Hoggart, probably written as an archetype rather than actual reportage: At No. 10 events, some terrified member of the public, or American, would find themselves in Thatcher's path, attempt a pleasantry and receive a twenty minute lecture on, basically Thatcherism, a full-on assult with all the force of her personality, before she would smile, terrifyingly, and move on to her next victim: meanwhile, Dennis would be smiling amiably in the background. As she moved on, Dennis would console the victim thus: "never mind old chap - have a gin and tonic".
If you like cricket.
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
13m
MIRROR: PM gave go-ahead for party #TomorrowsPapersToday
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1483204738506276867
You know what else is dead? Levelling up.
Boris doesn’t care enough to focus on the details, and Rishi is actively hostile to it.
IPPR North’s report today is brutal.
- Most Levelling Up promises are broken
- Paltry new spend of £32 pp v £413 in austerity cuts
- 95p in every £1 spent by central government four years ago is now 96p.
- Jobs and proverty data show north/south divide is getting worse.
I am not sure any of this electorally salient, and the “North” and “Midlands” don’t seem to vote in their own economic interests, but it is worth noting.
PM's terms aren't always defined by their own behaviour.
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1483186812281630728?s=20
I met Osborne myself socially once and can confirm the latter, but not the former.
Absolutely nothing the British do will make any material difference to the outcome of a Russia - Ukraine armed conflict so this is pure virtue signalling (as tories like to call it).
I just mean it is over as a political force that motivates very gullible voters like yourself.
Brexit is just a clean-up job now.
Has been noted.
The last cornershop retail politician to make it to the top?
(Most of the postponements haven't been their fault).
https://youtu.be/nO_fXajyzek
As one comedian commented, you can see the point when the lumbering lads realise that they're the alpha males in the room.
Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
36m
Dominic Cummings claims there are "many other photos of parties" yet to be published. He will reveal more after Sue Gray reports. Very, very ominous for the PM.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1483202976726532099
The ref should really step in at this point.
Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
I seem to recall he stood in for BJ at one of the leadership debates at GE 2019, and was distinctly underwhelming.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-17/why-the-mystery-partygate-email-mentioned-in-cummings-blog-really-matters
As for jobs, different places have different levels.
But you've got full employment in the mining areas for the first time since anyone can remember.
In particular, they were expert at combining radio/radar triangulation to hammer any kind of vaguely fixed Ukrainian position.
Things that come to mind are The Great Toyota War, and the NATO tactics if there was a breakthrough at the Fulda Gap - roving anti-tank teams, 3 men in a jeep basically, hit the front and back of a convoy of vehicles and run.....
May would be in the doorway chain-smoking like Dot Cotton.
Cameron would arrive with a red tongue from downing a bottle of wine at home to have a cheap night. He'd end up drinking the warm pint Boris handed you.
Brown would start a fight with the bouncer and not even get in.
Blair would be helping out behind the bar, shirt sleeves rolled up, all smiles. Only later would the owner find the till down.
Major would be hovering by the quiz machine giving all the right answers but not making any friends.
Thatcher wouldn't be there cos she's dead.
He’s also anti- “levelling up”.
I think he is charming and eloquent and sober and hardworking, even.
But he doesn’t understand what Britain’s problems are, and he doesn’t have any solutions.
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
4m
As we reported tonight two former officials remember Cummings discussing warning the PM on May 20th, 2020, that he shouldn't go ahead with the event in the garden - No 10 have totally disputed this version of events
That wouldn't be difficult.
This is shattering morale in Whitehall, as a number of senior civil servants have told me. "It feels like utter s***", said one. "It would be seen as completely unfair if we took all the blame and the prime minister was let off the hook".
Another said that the official civil service, whose core function is to provide continuity of effective government whoever is in power, would be seriously damaged. Good people would leave. Recruitment would be harder.
The question, therefore, is how Gray serves the government and the prime minister in her report, without betraying the institution that has been her professional life since leaving school.
"Sue is acutely aware both of the importance of what she is doing, and not to show fear or favour to anyone, including the prime minister" said one of her colleagues.
In that sense, the briefings from those close to the PM that he did nothing wrong other than trust the flawed advice of officials - and that everyone else is to blame - is highly risky for him. In foreshadowing what many would see as a whitewash - or as I wrote recently, a "Gray wash" - the prime minister's team may have achieved precisely the opposite of what they want. "Sue Gray will be defined for the rest of her life by this report" said a former minister.
"She will be aware of that. And in my judgement she won't like the idea of being remembered as the civil servant who sacrificed her colleagues to save Boris".
Mystifying.
Anyone who was there knew what they were doing.
As I mentioned before, certain senior civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would not accept responsibility for actions they (the civil servants) took *directly against instructions*, at future enquiries into COVID.
I don't think Russia can sustain a long war, though could probably complete the Donbas annexation and perhaps expand it a little, but not much more.
Boris clearly set the tone and they definitely broke the rules and Boris is lying, but some took the opportunity for socialising on Friday evenings while the pubs were shut and treated it like uni freshers week.
I am surprised we haven't had tales of people being caught shagging in the stationary cupboard.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
Reynolds, Case, the lot.
- I didn't realise there was a party. BJ
- We weren't responsible for the party. Despite being there, drinking, playing music etc etc. The rest of them.
Were he or his team really not copied into any email invites?
2. “. A big pile of up-to-date portable anti-tank weapons could make a difference. Turn it into an attritional battle in depth.“ - Malmesbury
3. “is a Russian invasion of the Ukraine the one thing that could save Johnson? The ultimate dead cat?” - Ben Pointer
We have PBers who can properly answer the questions I am sure 🙂
we have taken option to send troops - the Daily Mail claim we have, so can we clear that one up, is the Mail lying?
at least latest technology to kill as many Russians as possible if they invade? To act as a military deterrent? Or virtue signalling?
If you go do you go all in to save Ukraine from Putin, with allies, or what is the value of just a token measure? I can understand value of trying to save Ukraine and it’s West leaning democracy, but a token effort just flags up our business is quite the opposite of genuinely answering their pleas for help? underlines we are not really willing to fight for Ukraine, or acting with many like minded allies when the Ukraines who resist are slaughtered in front of us on news Channel?
Should we do anything to encourage them to slaughter themselves 😕
Surely any military move, especially when we commit troops, or even small ones like this has a purpose, value and gains to make, you can appear in front reporters explain what you are getting into and exit strategy to get out? So can rule out unlike other government business this week this nothing to do with Operation Save the Dog, our commitment and action carefully planned?
Downing Street needs to be de-Ba’athed.
'They've turned the red wall against us!'
https://youtu.be/I5VaPQflLq0
Now if some of his team attended that's a different matter.
David Miliband
@DMiliband
·
8h
I worked in 10 Downing Street for 4 years (1997-2001). There were receptions in the state rooms, working dinners with dignitaries, but I don’t remember a single party, DJ etc. There was much more reverence than revelry. This idea “they’re all at it” is nonsense
https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1483093742928158723