CON members’ poll sends Sunak even higher in next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

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CON members’ poll sends Sunak even higher in next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

The big political betting news tonight is a new CON Members’ poll from Opinium for C4 which has Chancellor Sunak’s chances looking very strong indeed.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

solarflare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Beijing city officials are recommending people stop ordering items to be delivered from overseas, after saying a local woman may have been infected by Omicron after opening a parcel.

They repeated the theory that Covid-19 could be spread internationally on imports of frozen food, something many scientists have questioned.

Fortress China isn't really going to be complete until they've got the Fuller Domes in place over the major cities.

The world economy is going to take a massive tank if somewhere like Shenzhen gets Omicron bad and the Chinese go with Viagra Hard lockdown.

GIN1138

Second - Like Truss

IshmaelZ

Go on Rishi, You know you want to. Tide in the affairs of men.

Scott_xP

Liz Truss leadership "schmooze operation" is in full swing as Boris Johnson's popularity plummets https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/liz-truss-tory-leadership-schmooze-operation-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-plummets

FrancisUrquhart

Is this the Monday evening , hick, strategyyyggg hick meettttttting....I am just going for a lie down over there, carry on...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

HYUFD

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

Big_G_NorthWales

IshmaelZ said:

Go on Rishi, You know you want to. Tide in the affairs of men.

This is the moment conservative mps need to grasp and re set the government with Rishi and a new cabinet

Dorries was dreadful at the dispatch box today and even conservative mps attacked her

No use waiting, get yourselves organised and send Boris packing post the report, i.e. by the end of this month

FrancisUrquhart

Surprised this hasn't gone viral...

Cassetteboy - Rage Against the Party Machine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgq4fw6o8Gc

Taz

FrancisUrquhart said:

solarflare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Beijing city officials are recommending people stop ordering items to be delivered from overseas, after saying a local woman may have been infected by Omicron after opening a parcel.

They repeated the theory that Covid-19 could be spread internationally on imports of frozen food, something many scientists have questioned.

Fortress China isn't really going to be complete until they've got the Fuller Domes in place over the major cities.

The world economy is going to take a massive tank if somewhere like Shenzhen gets Omicron bad and the Chinese go with Viagra Hard lockdown.

I linked a Forbes article a couple of days ago making that very point. Omicron is in China and lockdowns don’t seem to stop it. So it’s going to rip through.

StuartDickson

MoonRabbit said:

StuartDickson said:

Cookie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.

The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).

The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.

Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.

Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.

Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.

We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.

I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)

You have to explain that one it makes no sense.

And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?

Morgondopp?
Midsommarstång?
Åsiktskorridoren?

I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

You are beginning to see the light

Come on, ditch Boris and go all Rishi

You know you want to

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

MoonRabbit said:

StuartDickson said:

Cookie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.

The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).

The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.

Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.

Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.

Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.

We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.

I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)

You have to explain that one it makes no sense.

And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?

Morgondopp?
Midsommarstång?
Åsiktskorridoren?

I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.

Well, a piss artist, anyway.

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Cicero

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Leon

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

You are beginning to see the light

Come on, ditch Boris and go all Rishi

You know you want to

Sorry that should be a 1% lead for him over Starmer

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

RobD

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

We must have a Klaxon for this somewhere.

Big_G_NorthWales

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

That is not possible

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

solarflare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Beijing city officials are recommending people stop ordering items to be delivered from overseas, after saying a local woman may have been infected by Omicron after opening a parcel.

They repeated the theory that Covid-19 could be spread internationally on imports of frozen food, something many scientists have questioned.

Fortress China isn't really going to be complete until they've got the Fuller Domes in place over the major cities.

The world economy is going to take a massive tank if somewhere like Shenzhen gets Omicron bad and the Chinese go with Viagra Hard lockdown.

That’s what I have been saying. Add that on top of a catastrophically overstretched financial boom and you have serious problems.

And not just for China.

HYUFD

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

I am prepared to give Boris until the local elections to turn it round.

If not then yes Sunak it has to be

Mexicanpete

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

As a non-Tory my favoured next PM would be Truss, Sunak, Hunt, in that order. Away from the Cabinet there are a handful of operatives I would fear far more.

MoonRabbit

StuartDickson said:

MoonRabbit said:

StuartDickson said:

Cookie said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Having been so surprised to realise the other day that Bristol was east of Edinburgh, I thought I'd have a look at some latitude lines. Because I sometimes find that kind of thing fun.

The obviously famous 49th, dividing so much of Canada and the USA, runs quite conveniently between UK's Jersey and France's Chausey, and then through just north of Paris. I think it's the perfect line to divide the world between England and France (don't worry Scotland, I'll get to you soon).

The line carries on through into Germany, leaving most of it in England but all of Bavaria in France. All of Austria except one village goes to France, almost all of Czechia to England. Further round Volgograd is France and then then the border runs through Kazakhstan.

Then I thought I'd have a look at the England Scotland border, to see how we can divide the world after our inevitable split. Obviously it's a trickier border to track around the globe, going from as north as Berwick to as south as the Mull of Galloway. When I tracked this disputed zone I felt colder on behalf of our northern cousins.

Berwick is level with Moscow, which I think ought to go to Scotland. Also on that most north of England line is the north shore of Lake Baikal. The lake's southern shore is level with London. The world's largest lake which has enough water to cover a flat Britain with 110 metre depth, but was cold enough to freeze for an army to march over it, is south of Scotland. The line also runs through Kazakhstan.

Looking back over to the other side of the Atlantic, the very Southern tip of Scotland at the Mull of Galloway is level with around the middle of Polar Bear Provincial Park. A park in Ontario where Polar Bears live is level with the southern end of Scotland. I reckon they'd get on better than pandas in Scotland.

We are a long, long way north. Less than 2% of the world's population lives north of Manchester.

I pay very little attention to soccer (or to sport in general, excluding road cycling) so was surprised to discover that Man U is no longer a thing. Well, it still exists probably, but much in the way that East Fife still exists. (Presumably.)

You have to explain that one it makes no sense.

And could you switch your avatar too, it looks like a Midwich Cuckoo. How about something scandi?

Morgondopp?
Midsommarstång?
Åsiktskorridoren?

I like my avatar. Boris is a wee gem.

I have been meaning to say for days I didn’t know how to politely broach it. Now we have. IT’S CREEPY. It’s got a sinister stare that follows you round the room.

I knew you’d be difficult about it.

Foxy

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

You're getting there

Come on, just do it and ditch Boris

dixiedean

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

Benpointer

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

Tbf it's not Johnson's handling of the pandemic that is at issue.

But I agree re the wider fundamentals.

Leon

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

I am prepared to give Boris until the local elections to turn it round.

If not then yes Sunak it has to be

The longer you leave it, the more damage he does to your Party (which cheers me no end) and the country (which doesn't). Get shot, now!

Big_G_NorthWales

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

And furlough, the most successful measure in the pandemic

Gallowgate

I don’t really fear Rishi.

He’s just another Cameroon Tory who will push austerity again

Sunil_Prasannan

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS

What's wrong with being TEETOTAL, you twat?

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

He could buy the DUP, which Johnson can't.

The Tories are no longer coalition-proof either.

HYUFD

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sunak v Starmer has shades of Major v Kinnock, yes

RandallFlagg

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

I am prepared to give Boris until the local elections to turn it round.

If not then yes Sunak it has to be

Thought you said you wouldn't reward Cummings for his coup attempt (by helping him install his preferred candidate as PM)?

BlancheLivermore

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Benpointer

O/T "Horta-Osario in line for £3.8m payout after Covid breach."

That'll learn him!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1483194458669727746?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Rather convenient that the narrative has been set that current #10 are pissed morning, noon and night.

If Big Dom was war gaming on his whiteboard....what would the media wank themselves blind over and what has my man's can't be accused of....

RandallFlagg

Gallowgate said:

I don’t really fear Rishi.

He’s just another Cameroon Tory who will push austerity again

I fear him more than Truss. Don't think he'd retain most of the Tories recent redwall acquisitions, but could rebuild the coalition that got Cameron a majority in 2015.

DavidL

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

Cookie

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

I'd say being associated with the pandemic isn't a bad thing. No-one blames Rishi for the pandemic, and he can associate himself with some of the successful parts of its management (fulough, vaccines, plausibly anything which money was spent on) while distancing himself from its unpopular parts (he has been less pro-lockdown than Boris).
Crucially, he hasn't yet been shown to be breaking the rules he himself was setting.

The public are willing to forgive geting a few difficult things honestly wrong. But they won't forgive being treated like idiots.

IshmaelZ

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

He solves the problem of bj being pm. Are you suggesting that replacing bj would not be a massive improvement?

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

He could buy the DUP, which Johnson can't.

The Tories are no longer coalition-proof either.

However the 1% lead Sunak has over Starmer with Redfield is even smaller than the 2% lead May had over Corbyn in 2017. Even the DUP might not be enough if Starmer does a deal with the SNP and LDs

MoonRabbit

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sunak v Starmer has shades of Major v Kinnock, yes

He is getting there 😌

StuartDickson

RobD said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Sunak does win the Tory leadership he changes a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483144610222325763?s=20

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1483137177496301568?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects. Albeit Starmer could still become PM with SNP support

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Repeat

HYUFD HAS TURNED

Rishi it is

We must have a Klaxon for this somewhere.

Do I get a klaxon if I sing Land of Hope and Glory?

Mexicanpete

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Leon

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Rather convenient that the narrative has been set that current #10 are pissed morning, noon and night.

Yes, it's almost as if someone disapproves. A notorious coke addict instead...

https://youtu.be/nO_fXajyzek

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

O/T "Horta-Osario in line for £3.8m payout after Covid breach."

That'll learn him!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1483194458669727746?s=20

Build himself a nice tennis court for that.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

He could buy the DUP, which Johnson can't.

The Tories are no longer coalition-proof either.

However the 1% lead Sunak has over Starmer with Redfield is even smaller than the 2% lead May had over Corbyn in 2017. Even the DUP might not be enough if Starmer does a deal with the SNP and LDs

Why are you managing your life on completely meaningless polling?

Rishi’s current polling isn’t really relevant. He’ll get a boost against Starmer if he becomes PM and he may drop if inflation/cost of living etc starts to bite. Plenty of events between his ascension and the next election.

Leon

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Yes, precisely

MoonRabbit

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

He could buy the DUP, which Johnson can't.

The Tories are no longer coalition-proof either.

However the 1% lead Sunak has over Starmer with Redfield is even smaller than the 2% lead May had over Corbyn in 2017. Even the DUP might not be enough if Starmer does a deal with the SNP and LDs

Oh no. He’s wobbling. 🤭

Benpointer

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

Snap election = current boundaries, too, so not likely.

solarflare

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sunak v Starmer has shades of Major v Kinnock, yes

That might not be the worst thing in the world.

rottenborough

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

They 'aint laughing anymore. The end of the pier show is over. He's so broken he can barely apply the grease paint anymore.

Comparing Sunak with how Johnson once was back in the distant past before #partygate is a waste of time.

DavidL

Cookie said:

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

I'd say being associated with the pandemic isn't a bad thing. No-one blames Rishi for the pandemic, and he can associate himself with some of the successful parts of its management (fulough, vaccines, plausibly anything which money was spent on) while distancing himself from its unpopular parts (he has been less pro-lockdown than Boris).
Crucially, he hasn't yet been shown to be breaking the rules he himself was setting.

The public are willing to forgive geting a few difficult things honestly wrong. But they won't forgive being treated like idiots.

They might even forgive lying but they won’t forgive stupid lying and this is beyond brainless. WTF was he thinking trying to hide this ? Mad.

MoonRabbit

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

On tonight's RedfieldWilton Sunak would win most seats over Starmer but not a majority. However still better than the current polling

He could buy the DUP, which Johnson can't.

The Tories are no longer coalition-proof either.

However the 1% lead Sunak has over Starmer with Redfield is even smaller than the 2% lead May had over Corbyn in 2017. Even the DUP might not be enough if Starmer does a deal with the SNP and LDs

Why are you managing your life on completely meaningless polling?

Rishi’s current polling isn’t really relevant. He’ll get a boost against Starmer if he becomes PM and he may drop if inflation/cost of living etc starts to bite. Plenty of events between his ascension and the next election.

Point is Major overturned years of polling, and was chosen as the best devil you know for coming recession.

StuartDickson

FrancisUrquhart said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Rather convenient that the narrative has been set that current #10 are pissed morning, noon and night.

If Big Dom was war gaming on his whiteboard....what would the media wank themselves blind over and what has my man's can't be accused of....

I assumed Blanche was referring to SeanT sobering up.

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

And furlough, the most successful measure in the pandemic

Yes, free money works.

After the Covid enquiries are completed, I suspect it will be viewed as poor value for magic money.

Malmesbury

StuartDickson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sobriety might look quite attractive atm.

Rather convenient that the narrative has been set that current #10 are pissed morning, noon and night.

If Big Dom was war gaming on his whiteboard....what would the media wank themselves blind over and what has my man's can't be accused of....

I assumed Blanche was referring to SeanT sobering up.

Now you are really talking nonsense. That's in Corbyn For Trump territory.

Scott_xP

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

DavidL

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

Snap election = current boundaries, too, so not likely.

That has been the problem for the last 12 years. It is utterly bewildering that 3 successive Tory PMs have failed to deal with this.

RandallFlagg

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

I could see Sunak would lose Sedgefield and Don Valley, yet pick up Canterbury and Putney. I think there are remainer ex-Tory voters who'd never vote for Boris but possibly would be willing to give him a shot.

MoonRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is this the Monday evening , hick, strategyyyggg hick meettttttting....I am just going for a lie down over there, carry on...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

“Sleeping through the music that one.”
“He works too hard.”

dixiedean

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

Tbf it's not Johnson's handling of the pandemic that is at issue.

But I agree re the wider fundamentals.

Nope. But it's the memories of the pandemic evoked.
We all want to forget it.

another_richard

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.

And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.

The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.

geoffw

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

Snap election = current boundaries, too, so not likely.

That has been the problem for the last 12 years. It is utterly bewildering that 3 successive Tory PMs have failed to deal with this.

Dereliction of duty imo.

solarflare

Scott_xP said:

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

Not so much a no-brainer no-one thought to do it when they essentially banned parties for the country.

Benpointer

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Stuartinromford

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

One future history is the one where the next Conservative leader is the Alec Douglas-Home to Bozza's Harold Macmillan. Steadying the ship, not involved in the madness of the decay of his predecessor... leading his party to a defeat, but a respectable near-miss rather than a wipeout. (The tax rises inked in for the next couple of years are going to make life tricky for any Conservative leader. If Plan A was 10 glorious years of Bozza, Plan B was to dump him as the economy perked up in 2023, and we're now havering between Plans C (dump him after the May elections) and D (get rid of him yesterday if possible).

Being A D-H an honourable place to have in the Parthenon, but is it one that any politician (especially one as blatantly ambishy as Rishi) would willingly take?

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

His flat will be exempt presumably.

HYUFD

RandallFlagg said:

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

I could see Sunak would lose Sedgefield and Don Valley, yet pick up Canterbury and Putney. I think there are remainer ex-Tory voters who'd never vote for Boris but possibly would be willing to give him a shot.

The Tories would certainly become posher and richer again under Sunak than they were in 2019

turbotubbs

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Confession. I once ran along Aberystwyth seafront in a pair of underpants that looked sufficiently like tight running shorts to pass. But I knew they were just pants...

dixiedean

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

Snap election = current boundaries, too, so not likely.

That has been the problem for the last 12 years. It is utterly bewildering that 3 successive Tory PMs have failed to deal with this.

They could have done simply by doing nothing.
But Dave had to solve a problem that no longer existed, that of Labour's greater vote efficiency.
So changed all the rules. Could have been done years ago.

Leon

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.

"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it

But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.

He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)

Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub

Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife

Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave

Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave

Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing

Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down

THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW

Stark_Dawning

If HYUFD is right - and I see no reason to doubt him - then surely Boris will do all that he can to stop Cummings's co-plotter, i.e. Rishi, from claiming the ultimate prize. Indeed, I suspect Boris cares far less about Brexit than Cummings does, so as a last act of revenge Boris might try to engineer a Remainer as his successor in the (probably forlorn) hope that Brexit is cancelled and Dom's legacy destroyed.

HYUFD

solarflare said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Sunak v Starmer has shades of Major v Kinnock, yes

That might not be the worst thing in the world.

Though if Boris is Thatcher, Sunak is Major and Starmer is Kinnock, could we then end up with Burnham back as an MP and ready to be the Blair figure to finally lead Labour back to power in 2029?

another_richard

RandallFlagg said:

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

I could see Sunak would lose Sedgefield and Don Valley, yet pick up Canterbury and Putney. I think there are remainer ex-Tory voters who'd never vote for Boris but possibly would be willing to give him a shot.

The mining areas are trending Conservative long term and most of them have significant Conservative majorities from 2019.

The seats at most risk are the traditional marginals which the Conservatives won in 2019 - the two Burys, Gedling, High Peak for example.

How having Sunak as leader would affect the BAME vote I don't know but that might be important in various northern and black country marginals.

Benpointer

Scott_xP said:

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

The problem is, who is going to believe the booze ban applies to Johnson?

Razedabode

All Rishi needs to do is put together a vaguely competent cabinet, outline a vision and go with it.

Can’t do worse than Johnson

CarlottaVance

You can't see this if you insist on only reading world events through Brexit -- but it is actually Germany which is incinerating trust across Central and Eastern Europe right as Britain, for all the pandemic's parties, is rapidly rebuilding it with security action over Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1483196734683721730?s=21

Gardenwalker

It is pure joy to observe the collapse of the crooked clown from overseas.

Pure joy.

Rishi can probably steady the ship for a while but at the end of the day the whole Tory party are complicit in enabling the debauch of government and need a long period in Opposition for the sake of the country.

MoonRabbit

On topic. Surely next PM is Raab none of those on that graphic?

There is a confusion between next Tory leader and next PM which market to be on?

CarlottaVance

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

And of more importance, the U.K. is arming Ukraine as Germany refuses to do so.

another_richard

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

The problem is, who is going to believe the booze ban applies to Johnson?

Given he lives there it couldn't apply to him in any case.

kjh

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.

"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it

But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.

He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)

Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub

Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife

Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave

Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave

Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing

Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down

THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW

I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?

Benpointer

Razedabode said:

All Rishi needs to do is put together a vaguely competent cabinet, outline a vision and go with it.

Can’t do worse than Johnson

'Not worse than Johnson' isn't going to cut it though is it.

StuartDickson

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Echoes of Kinnock on the beach. A man clearly unaware of his own inherent weaknesses.

dixiedean

another_richard said:

dixiedean said:

Still don't see how Rishi solves anything. Other than the short term polling. Second to the PM he is most associated with the pandemic.
And the fundamentals in the Party and the wider economy remain.

Sunak is associated with the good things though - furlough to save jobs and allow people to get paid for staying at home plus the discounts to go to pubs and restaurants.

And if the economy is the big worry then who better than a 'clever Indian chappie' who has made millions and millions.

The imagery of hard work and brains works nicely for Sunak in difficult times.

I remain unconvinced. Seems to me he's a blank canvas onto which one can paint one's own particular hopes and fears. Similar to Starmer tbf.

Razedabode

CarlottaVance said:

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

And of more importance, the U.K. is arming Ukraine as Germany refuses to do so.

I do think the whole “Germany” seemingly to be taking a rather odd strategy line against Russia - alienating its allies - as one thing that is flying under the radar at the moment.

The Ukraine and Russia is still bubbling up.

Foxy

Razedabode said:

All Rishi needs to do is put together a vaguely competent cabinet, outline a vision and go with it.

Can’t do worse than Johnson

He is an old school Tory. We might actually reach the end of financial incontinence.

turbotubbs

kjh said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.

"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it

But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.

He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)

Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub

Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife

Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave

Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave

Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing

Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down

THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW

I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?

No idea what he’d be like during, but you’d end up taking his daughter round his house when he left her behind...

another_richard

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.

"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it

But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.

He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)

Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub

Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife

Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave

Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave

Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing

Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down

THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW

With Boris you'd end up paying for all the drinks.

rottenborough

kjh said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Note too if Boris goes and Subak does win the Tory leadership he cuts a 13% lead for Starmer over Boris as best PM, 42% to 29%, to a 1% lead for him over Boris, 38% to 37%.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1481672585096146946?s=20

If translated into seats that would give the Tories most seats in a hung parliament rather than a small Labour majority as Redfield currently projects

I am not so sure Sunak is the man to take the Conservatives into GE 2024. Maybe his best bet is a snap election before the economy really tanks. Small majority but 5 years to turn it around.

Snap election not likely. Sunak doesn't want an even shorter premiership than Johnson.

I think mid-honeymoon he could pull it off. It's the Brown conundrum of course.

Sunak is more than that. Yes he is absurdly small and absurdly rich, that I grant you - and both might be problematic.

"The British people will not vote for a fucking Borrrower" as @Dura_Ace memorably put it

But he has an easy conversational style, eloquent but not overbearing, and is actually more charming - in that narrow sense - than any potential PM since Blair.

He acts like a nice guy at the pub who you would happily share a G&T with - but no more (tho he would be sipping a Diet Coke)

Of the previous UK PMs, in the pub

Boris would tell you much better gossip and some alarming jokes, but probably come on to your wife

Theresa May would say nothing for 30 minutes, then eat a single peanut, then leave

Gordon Brown would accept half a shandy then awkwardly lecture you about Endogenous Growth Theory for 1 hour, then leave

Tony Blair would be the most like Sunak. He'd have a casual drink, tell you something interesting, listen to you too, with a keen smile, then leave at the right time without being embarrassing

Starmer would have a small glass of red wine then talk about football in an unconvincing way, even tho he means it, and then exit with you feeling slightly perplexed and let down

THIS IS MY PB PUB ANALYSIS, AND THAT IS DONE NOW

I thought that rather good. More please. What about Cameron?

Good, but, I don't think it's fair to Brown. iirc there was a gang of them with John Smith on the last train out of London upto Scotland on a Thursday night absolutely caning the McEwans cans.

Benpointer

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

officials said Johnson was likely to consider banning alcohol in Number 10 following Gray’s report, which will outline a Downing St drinking culture:

“It’s a no brainer to ban booze”, said one Number 10 official. “Even if it is too little too late.”

https://www.ft.com/content/866b9152-e124-4742-9418-71001e4c25b5

The problem is, who is going to believe the booze ban applies to Johnson?

Given he lives there it couldn't apply to him in any case.

Er... he lives next door, surely? ...where you need a stiff drink just to face the wallpaper.

Stuartinromford

Gardenwalker said:

It is pure joy to observe the collapse of the crooked clown from overseas.

Pure joy.

Rishi can probably steady the ship for a while but at the end of the day the whole Tory party are complicit in enabling the debauch of government and need a long period in Opposition for the sake of the country.

Including one R Sunak;

"The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us"
Rishi Sunak, Robert Jenrick, Oliver Dowden

The Times, 5 June 2019

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tories-are-in-deep-peril-only-boris-johnson-can-save-us-3xq9lrvr3

Applicant

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Going nowhere due to a points failure?

Gardenwalker

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Echoes of Kinnock on the beach. A man clearly unaware of his own inherent weaknesses.

Is it just me or had the big dog lost some paunch.

IshmaelZ

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Rishi 12 mansions might be the anti Johnson in that he is pretty wooden, and going for an early snap GE might not work if the campaign ends up rather clunky. So those Tories thinking the Chancellor is the solution may end up in an even worse position than now.

Rishi has many flaws - he's fucking TEETOLLAR FFS - but, in point of fact, he is not wooden. He's much more relaxed and affable than Starmer

He's particularly good at doing "normal" and also making Brits feel good about being non-racist. Positive things. Whereas the Labour party will be saying Oh you awful white people, you are Nazi scum

https://youtu.be/glz-DjY4i-s

An election between Starmer and Sunak would be won by Sunak, I reckon

Probably. But Boris has always had the ability to reach parts no Tory ( except arguably Ruth) can get near. I can’t see Rishi doing that. He will steady the troops, bring the loyalists back home, leaver and remainer alike but he won’t reach people that would laugh with Boris.

I agree. But with the boundary changes and the ongoing Labour Scottish problem - and with Boris gone, some Remainer anger finally lanced - I can see Rishi getting a small but decent majority

I just can't see Boris doing that now. The bitterness is surely irreversible

One future history is the one where the next Conservative leader is the Alec Douglas-Home to Bozza's Harold Macmillan. Steadying the ship, not involved in the madness of the decay of his predecessor... leading his party to a defeat, but a respectable near-miss rather than a wipeout. (The tax rises inked in for the next couple of years are going to make life tricky for any Conservative leader. If Plan A was 10 glorious years of Bozza, Plan B was to dump him as the economy perked up in 2023, and we're now havering between Plans C (dump him after the May elections) and D (get rid of him yesterday if possible).

Being A D-H an honourable place to have in the Parthenon, but is it one that any politician (especially one as blatantly ambishy as Rishi) would willingly take?

Wavering not havering. Pantheon not Parthenon. And on the substantive point these historical parallels are overdone. He is hardly going to pass up the PMship because of some superstitious delusion that he is doomed to relive the life of a dead Scottish toff

rottenborough

Benpointer said:

Why has Johnson forgotten to put his trousers on?

And why is he wearing a British Rail hat?

Well he is in the process of nationalising the railways without him really noticing as he never reads the briefing papers.